Predicting investment trends by seeing the world through consumers’ eyes

Summary

In this lecture, Marius dicacos, an economist and entrepreneur, delves into the reasons behind the failure of Google Glass, the allure of cell phones, and the success of TikTok over other social media platforms. He shares his journey from a traditional financial analyst to an ethnographic researcher, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer behavior and cultural values in investment and entrepreneurship. Dicacos illustrates his points with personal anecdotes and insights from his global studies, advocating for a people-first approach in business strategy.

Takeaways

• 🎓 The speaker, Marius Dicacos, emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior and personal stories over mere numbers in investment decisions.
• 🔍 Marius shares his journey from a traditional financial analyst to an ethnographic researcher, highlighting the value of firsthand consumer insights for long-term investment strategies.
• 💡 He introduces the concept that people, not companies, dictate trends, urging investors to prioritize understanding consumer perspectives for successful entrepreneurship and innovation.
• 🕵️‍♂️ Marius spent 13 years conducting ethnographic studies across different cultures, advocating for immersive research to grasp the nuances of consumer behavior.
• 👓 The discussion on Google Glass's failure underscores the importance of consumer feedback in product development, showing that even innovative technology can fail without proper market fit.
• 📱 The analysis of mobile data usage in India reveals cultural insights, such as the use of cell phones as a means of personal space in collective societies.
• 📈 Marius explains the evolution of consumer behavior through the lens of societal development, using the example of fridges to illustrate the shift from efficiency to indulgence as economies grow.
• 🌐 He discusses the significance of cultural context in consumption patterns, suggesting that understanding these contexts is crucial for predicting market trends and investment opportunities.
• 🤔 Marius challenges the 'build it and they will come' approach to innovation, citing the need for deep consumer engagement to ensure a product's success in the market.
• 👥 The speaker introduces Shalom Schwartz's values framework to understand the dynamics of societal values and their impact on consumer behavior and decision-making.
• 🚀 Marius concludes with advice for entrepreneurs, emphasizing the importance of empathy, endurance, excellence, and managing expectations for long-term success.

Q & A

Who is the speaker of the lecture and what is his background?

The speaker is Marius Dicacos, an economist with a distinguished career in financial and investment analysis. He studied at Cambridge University and has recently moved into entrepreneurship, creating an investment firm.

What are the three main questions the speaker aims to address in his lecture?

The speaker aims to address why Google Glass failed, why people spend so much time on their cell phones, and why TikTok succeeded when other Facebook challengers failed.

What significant change in perspective did the speaker experience after meeting a psychologist and a social anthropologist?

The speaker realized that his methodology, which relied on speaking to companies for information, was incomplete. He learned that people dictate trends, not companies, and to be a long-term investor, one needs to account for people and speak to them first.

How does the speaker describe his ethnographic studies and what do they involve?

The speaker describes his ethnographic studies as a structured methodology involving six months of planning before meeting people in their homes. It includes understanding their lives, sitting with them, sharing food and drink, and sometimes even sleeping on their floors to collect their life stories.

Why did Google Glass fail according to the speaker?

Google Glass failed because it did not consider consumer feedback and concerns about privacy. It was seen as an isolating technology rather than a connecting one, which did not align with consumer preferences.

What is the speaker's view on the importance of understanding cultural context and values in investment decisions?

The speaker believes that understanding cultural context and values is crucial in making informed investment decisions. Culture and values are the invisible hand that influences behavior and consumption patterns.

How does the speaker explain the shift in values over time in society?

The speaker uses a framework by psychologist Shalom H. Schwartz, which categorizes values into four quadrants. Values shift gradually through societies and can be understood by how they get re-prioritized within these quadrants.

What is the significance of the speaker's study on refrigerators in understanding consumer behavior and investment opportunities?

The study on refrigerators helps the speaker predict consumption patterns across different socio-economic groups. It provides insights into the evolution of consumer needs and wants, which can guide investment decisions in various sectors like food and beverage.

Why does the speaker believe that cell phone usage is high in India among millennials?

The speaker believes that in collective societies like India, where family is always around, the cell phone provides a sense of personal space and an escape, allowing for personal time which is otherwise limited.

What advice does the speaker give for success in entrepreneurship?

The speaker advises focusing on empathy, endurance, and excellence while minimizing expectations. He emphasizes the importance of understanding and feeling what others are experiencing, working hard without complaining, striving for excellence in all endeavors, and managing expectations to avoid disappointment.