How Statistics Supports our Intuition | Ostap Okhrin | TEDxDresden
Summary
TLDRThe speaker explores the omnipresence of statistics in daily life, from avoiding tigers at the zoo to planning vacations and playing board games with kids. They delve into weather forecasting, analyze movie ratings on IMDB to understand gender preferences, and even apply statistical analysis to J.R.R. Tolkien's works. The talk illustrates how everyone has an 'internal statistician', making decisions based on probabilities and data, and emphasizes the pervasive role of statistics in our lives.
Takeaways
- 📊 Statistics is a branch of mathematics and probability theory, linking complex mathematical formulas with the real world full of data and observations.
- 🧠 Everyone has an 'internal statistician' that influences daily decisions, such as avoiding crowded places on Saturdays or choosing the best time to refuel a car.
- 💏 Statistical tendencies are observed in human behavior, like the common direction of head turns during kissing, and who initiates kisses in heterosexual couples.
- 🌡 Weather forecasting is an example of statistics in action, using various models to predict temperatures and probabilities of different weather conditions.
- 📈 The speaker compared different weather forecasting websites, noting how they use statistical models to provide short-term and long-term predictions, which can vary due to different underlying models.
- 🎲 Board games can demonstrate the role of statistics in determining the probability of winning and losing, and how the distribution of outcomes can be symmetric or skewed.
- 👫 The importance of considering the sample size and demographic when evaluating ratings, such as movie ratings on IMDB, to understand potential biases or dependencies.
- 🎬 The use of statistical analysis to determine if a movie is 'male' or 'female' based on the correlation between gender and ratings, and the importance of a balanced rating distribution.
- 📚 The application of statistical techniques like cluster analysis to determine the similarity between books, as demonstrated with works by J.R.R. Tolkien and his son Christopher Tolkien.
- 📘 The difference in perception and content between books written by J.R.R. Tolkien and those edited by Christopher Tolkien, highlighting the role of posthumous editing in shaping literary works.
- 🌳 The idea that children can 'feel' statistics through games, indicating that an understanding of statistics is innate and can be developed through everyday experiences.
Q & A
What is the role of different disciplines in decision-making during a day?
-Different disciplines like biology, physics, and chemistry support us in making decisions by providing knowledge about the natural world and its phenomena. For instance, biology might warn us about the danger of approaching a tiger, while physics helps us understand forces needed to cross a river.
How is statistics related to mathematics and probability theory?
-Statistics is a branch of mathematics and is deeply connected to probability theory. It links complex mathematical formulas with real-world data and observations, helping us make sense of patterns and trends in the data.
Why do people tend to avoid shopping on Saturdays according to the speaker's experience?
-People tend to avoid shopping on Saturdays because it is commonly known to be crowded, suggesting that there is an internal statistician in everyone that guides decisions based on observed patterns and experiences.
What does the speaker imply about the statistical tendency in car fuel prices?
-The speaker implies that car fuel prices are higher during early mornings and evenings, and lower during the day, suggesting a statistical understanding of pricing patterns that influences when people choose to refuel.
What is the significance of the direction people lean while kissing according to the speaker?
-The speaker mentions a statistical tendency for people to lean their heads to the right while kissing in most cases, and that in heterosexual couples, males often initiate kisses, indicating how statistics can reveal subtle patterns in human behavior.
How does the speaker describe the process of checking weather forecasts for vacation planning?
-The speaker describes checking weather forecasts by visiting different websites like 'avatar' and 'vet online', which use various statistical models to predict temperatures, helping in making informed vacation plans.
What is the game 'Asteroids Garden' and how does it relate to the concept of probability?
-'Asteroids Garden' is a game involving rolling dice to collect fruits or advance a crow in the garden. It is a game of pure chance with an 80% winning probability against the crow, illustrating the concept of probability in a fun context.
How does the game 'Lifter des Plaines' differ from 'Asteroids Garden' in terms of decision-making?
-'Lifter des Plaines' also involves rolling dice but differs in that it is a competitive game where players make individual decisions based on the dice roll, contrasting with the team-based, decision-less gameplay of 'Asteroids Garden'.
What is the significance of the correlation coefficient in the context of movie ratings and gender?
-The correlation coefficient is used to measure the dependency between movie ratings and gender. A higher coefficient indicates a stronger relationship, suggesting that certain movies may be preferred by specific genders based on the ratings.
How did the speaker use statistical analysis to compare books by J.R.R. Tolkien and his son Christopher Tolkien?
-The speaker used cluster analysis to compare the most frequently used words in the books by J.R.R. Tolkien and Christopher Tolkien, resulting in a dendrogram that grouped the books based on their linguistic similarity, revealing differences in their writing styles.
What conclusion does the speaker draw about the presence of a 'statistician' within us?
-The speaker concludes that everyone has an internal statistician that helps us make decisions based on patterns and probabilities, whether in everyday activities like shopping or in more complex scenarios like analyzing literary works.
Outlines
📊 The Ubiquity of Statistics in Daily Life
This paragraph discusses how various disciplines, especially statistics, influence our daily decisions. It uses examples such as avoiding close encounters with tigers due to biological instincts, understanding physical forces when crossing a river, and the role of chemistry in modern medicine. Statistics, a branch of mathematics and probability theory, connects complex mathematical formulas with real-world data and observations. The speaker illustrates this with everyday examples, such as choosing shopping days to avoid crowds and understanding fuel price fluctuations. Furthermore, the speaker embarks on a 'statistical journey' through a day, starting with checking weather forecasts for vacation planning, comparing different models and their probabilities, and ending with family activities influenced by the day's weather.
🎲 The Role of Statistics in Board Games and Movie Selection
The speaker explores the application of statistics in board games and decision-making processes, such as choosing which movie to watch. They describe playing 'Asteroids Garden' and 'Lifter des Plaines' with their children, analyzing the probability of winning and the games' average completion time. The games are categorized as 'pure gambling' with no strategic decisions involved. The speaker also discusses using IMDB ratings to decide on a movie, considering the distribution of ratings and the correlation between gender and movie preferences. They use statistical analysis to determine if a movie is gender-dependent in its appeal, ultimately choosing 'It's a Wonderful Life' as a film suitable for all, based on its even rating distribution and lack of gender bias.
📚 Statistics in Literature: Tolkien's Works Analyzed
In this paragraph, the speaker reflects on the presence of statistics in literature, specifically in the works of J.R.R. Tolkien. They mention reading not only the well-known 'The Hobbit' and 'The Lord of the Rings' but also lesser-known works such as 'The Silmarillion', 'The Children of Húrin', and 'Unfinished Tales of Middle-earth'. The speaker notes that the latter three were edited by Tolkien's son, Christopher, after his death. Using statistical analysis, they compare the most frequently used words across all twelve books, employing cluster analysis to create a dendrogram that visually groups the books by their lexical similarity. This analysis reveals that the books edited by Christopher Tolkien are distinct from those written by J.R.R. Tolkien, highlighting the subtle differences in style and content.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Statistics
💡Probability Theory
💡Data
💡Forecasting
💡Decision Making
💡Board Games
💡IMDb
💡Contingency Table
💡Correlation Coefficient
💡Dendrogram
💡Internal Statisticians
Highlights
Different disciplines support decision-making in various scenarios, such as biology advising against approaching a tiger due to its predatory nature.
Physics helps in understanding forces needed to cross a river, illustrating the application of scientific principles in everyday life.
Modern medicine relies on chemistry, emphasizing the interconnectedness of scientific fields.
Statistics, a branch of mathematics and probability theory, links complex mathematical formulas with real-world data and observations.
Everyone has an 'internal statistician' that influences daily decisions, such as choosing shopping days to avoid crowds.
Statistical knowledge can inform decisions like the best time to refuel a car based on price fluctuations.
Statistical tendencies are observed in social behaviors, such as the common direction of head turns during kissing.
A journey through statistics in a day, starting with planning vacations and checking weather forecasts, demonstrates the practical use of statistical models.
Weather forecasting websites use statistical models to predict temperatures, with variances highlighting the nature of probabilistic predictions.
Playing board games with children can reveal insights into winning probabilities and the role of chance versus strategy.
The game 'Asteroids Garden' is analyzed for its winning probability, showing a high chance of success against the game's challenge.
In contrast, 'Lifter des Plaines' has a lower winning probability and is more dependent on random outcomes, affecting game length.
IMDb ratings and their distribution can indicate the appeal of a movie, with statistical analysis revealing demographic preferences.
A contingency table and correlation coefficient can be used to determine the dependency between gender and movie ratings.
The speaker identifies 'It's a Wonderful Life' as a movie with no gender dependency in ratings, suggesting universal appeal.
Statistical analysis of word frequency in Tolkien's works reveals differences between books edited by J.R.R. Tolkien and his son Christopher.
Hierarchical cluster analysis organizes Tolkien's books based on relatedness, showing a distinction between original and edited works.
The speaker concludes that statistics are omnipresent and can be felt even by children through games, emphasizing the innate understanding of statistical concepts.
Transcripts
it's a well-known fact different
disciplines are supporting us in making
different decisions during our date
right you won't come very close to the
tiger in the zoo because the biology
says it's a predate or it might bite you
you also somehow feel the forces which
you need to show this tone in order to
reach the other bank of the river from
the physics right the modern medicine
would be partly possible without
chemistry and what about statistics how
does the statistics supporting
orientation formerly statistics is a
part of mathematics right and if you
look more deeper it's a part of the
probability theory it's a science which
is linking beautiful and the very
complex mathematical formulas with the
beautiful and the very complex real
world full of data and observations and
actually all of us have some internal
statisticians inside right you if you
have a chance you would barely go
shopping on Saturday because you know it
you'll be crowded there anyhow so you
better use Thursday or Tuesday also you
won't take tank up your car early
morning or in the evening because the
prices are higher you better use the
time during the day if you have a chance
and even statistically while kissing we
are bending over head to the right in
most cases and in the heterosexual
couples males are in more cases
initiating kisses right let me bring you
to the small journey with the statistics
over one day ok so imagine it's early
morning Saturday I just had my morning
coffee kids still sleeping wife is
sleeping so we are planning our
vacations
what is the most important in vacations
to weather right so what you hear you
first open the website you check out the
weather for the coming one or two weeks
that actually what I did two weeks ago
on the 16th of August right I opened
avatar come they are actually using a
variety of different underlying models
their statistical models machine
learning models metallurgical models
then they are very nicely brought up
together and delivered us as the
forecast with this nice picture right we
have a band laurel bond of this band is
telling us the forecasted temperature
over the night for the coming two weeks
and the upper bond is telling us their
forecasted temperature during the day
right it's obviously star decreasing
because autumn is coming winter is
coming but it's not the only website you
check out right there is a lot of them
and I did the same so I checked the vet
online right we see that actually short
term forecast there pretty precise they
are dancing both together but the father
goes into the future they're going apart
it doesn't mean that they are wrong
using different models but all the
predictions in the statistics they're
all working with the probabilities right
nowadays we see that actually the
Vatican forecast was better at that time
when I was making this forecast when I
was taking this data it looks like well
that accom thinks that during a day it
will be called cooler than Vetter online
sinks will be during the night okay I
spent too much time planning forecast
for the next two weeks so let's plan
today's already pretty late kids will
wake up and I should perform something
with them so let's check the weather for
today Oh doesn't look that nice in the
morning so during it day is also not
that fascinating and even in the evening
it doesn't look so nice although this
picture is pretty cool right we see we
have all the reservoirs in one picture
we have Sun if you have rain you have
cloud and you have a light pink over
there right it's a perfect prediction
for us but it we can look out of the
window and yeah it's raining there so we
should stay at home and what we can do
with the kids we play some table games
right you love playing table games we
love playing board games and they have a
lot of them and why are you playing with
the kids
you realize that some of them they are
very interesting it's love playing them
more and more and more and more and some
they are not that fascinating and this
is the question they raised to myself
and I was playing several games with my
kids so first game we took is the
asteroids garden the first garden
and see someone you know this game so
the rules are very very simple you have
a dice you have four trees with
different colors you're just throwing
your dice and if you have the color of
some fruit - just picking up this fruit
and if you have the crow then the crow
is making step forward into the garden
right pure gambling the kids making no
decision in this case they're throwing a
dice and making those steps and second
saying is it just a team game I cannot
win against my son he cannot win against
me we as a team winning against the CRO
or vice versa and we are both happy when
we ran and we are both sad when we don't
such a thing is that actually the
winning probability against the crew is
almost 80% it means in most cases we are
winning against the CRO rather than
losing an another stop the game is
pretty short we're doing just 22 steps
on average to finish the game well
imagine you're just 2 seconds for a
throw it within a minute you are done
and this average makes sense because the
distribution is very nicely symmetric we
have this pick in the middle they have
maximally for these tabs minimally 5
steps then we took another game at the
lifter des plaines - as a game in which
you are somehow generating random
numbers between 1 and 6 by throwing a
dice we've got this fancy machine
standing over there and your feature is
making step forward or jumping over some
fields are jumping over some fields
backwards right again pure gambling no
decision they just throw a dice and you
check out on which field you should land
and it's not a team game right because
I'm playing against my son and he or he
is playing against me so the winning
probability in this case is 1 over the
number of players
it means if you're playing two of us the
winning credibility is 50% if the whole
family is playing then else in this case
is 25% which is much much slower if it
take the case of the just ops garden
right and the game is a little bit
longer you should take 40 steps on
average to finish it right it's thing is
throwing throwing the dice even more
over this average is meaningless in this
case because the distribution is highly
skewed it means you can throw up to 200
times in order to finish the game right
10-15 minute setting is throwing your
dice okay it's time for a midday sleep
I'm bringing my kids to bad
and then we should perform something
with my wife let's check heart out the
window what's the weather outside it's
raining right so the resin forecast at
this point was pretty okay so we decided
to watch some movies there a lot of them
right different genres different types
different lanes and we wanted to wish
something again my wife told me a
friends of mine told me that the very
nice movie we should watch should be the
Twilight the the Breaking Dawn Part 1 I
said well but none of my friends and
nothing about this film then we decided
okay let's check out on IMDB what's the
rating there it's a beautiful website on
which here check the information about
all the films about the director about
the crew etc so it's 4.9 it's not that
high but it's okay you can watch this
but we a statistician both of us let's
check out what's the population of
waters telling about this film right and
we see it's have two picks at one at a
10 we're telling us it's 15 percent
telling the movies not that good 15
percent telling the movie is gorgeous
and we have some bump in the middle but
it's not what's interesting me meeting
them what's their boys are thinking
about the film in my age category right
so that's what I did here right so we
have a pick around 25% of boys thinking
that movies not really worth watching
and then I start declining but if you
check out for the female and that age
generation of my wife it looks slightly
their friend right so it makes me I mean
it gives us already some suspicion
thinking that maybe there is some
dependency between the gender and the
rating right so what we do is split up
the ratings into two groups bad rating
from one to five good from six to ten
then you construct the so called
contingency table and which allows us to
compute the correlation coefficient if
it's closer to one exist the perfect
dependence is closer to zero there is a
in dependency between two variables in
this case rating and the gender if you
keep it it for this case you obtain 0.47
which now tell us that there is a
moderate dependency between the gender
and the rating and we can conclude that
this is rather the latest movie so
what's a matter not so boys after
football told me that the pretty cool
movie to watch would be the middle man's
from 2009 I think my wife immediately
thought okay I made the same the same
investigation as you did
so immediately went to the IMDB the
rating is a little bit higher it's six
point six we immediately afterwards to
look what the problem would the other
people's telling about this film it's
more symmetric there is a bump in the
middle we also have it point to some
higher ratings and she immediately said
I would like to check out what the boys
of your a generation thinking about it
film looks like this it's not gorgeous
it's not wonderful movie but it's okay
right it's rating seven so it's a good
film worse watching although there is my
slight bump on the rating of two but
then she decided let's check out what
girl thinking about it still and it
looks like this right so we have a high
pick at the rating of two we then made
also the idea that actually there should
be some dependency between the rating
and the gender so we constructed again
the contingency table and the
correlation coefficient was 0.52
with indicating guys that it's actually
is a dependency between the gender and
the rating and we can conclude there is
a rather man movie and actually strongly
believe that those two movies are the
most female movie in the IMDB database
and the most man movie IMDB database so
then we should come somehow to the
consensus right so we decided to watch
it's a wonderful life by Frank Capra
and you know it has the high ranking for
8.6 it belongs to the IMDB top 250 and
if you look at the at the voting's you
see they ever very close to each other
for man as vandals from women and if the
movie is good there shouldn't be any
dependency for gender and if you will do
the same study as we did before you have
realizes there is no dependency between
the ratings and the gender so we can
call it movie for all so kids slept well
check out what the weather outside oh
it's sunny right again the weather
forecast was a kid first he said it
should be rainy then we have sunny day
so then we played outside you know Elba
play different games and then we need to
read some books right we also have a
variety of them you can read you can
choose from and my famous writer is the
genius of John Ronald Reuel Tolkien
right who created for us the world of
middle-earth wrote for us The Hobbit
the Lord of the Rings you definitely
know the writer you definitely saw the
movies I like I read all of them I
enjoyed reading them and them recently I
found three more books also written is
by John Ronald Reuel Tolkien
Silmarillion the children of whoring and
unfinished tales of middle-earth and
actually the children of húrin have been
published in 2007 right John Tolkien
died in 1973 and and children of húrin
published 2007 then little written there
it has been edited by Christopher
Tolkien I read the books they're very
nice but they are different right you
feel that it they are not like the books
by John Tolkien they're not worse
they're not better they just somehow
different then I have realised that
actually John Tolkien left a lot of
notes afterwards after his death what
Christopher Tolkien brought them
together fill all the gaps made this
story very smooth but what statistics
add about it why did it I pick up all
the books nine books by Tolkien three
books by the Christopher Tolkien and the
compute computer at the table twelve
books twelve columns and I've get out
250 most frequently used words in all
twelve books okay very simple words I
removed all own words like Dwarfs Hobbit
Gandalf Aragorn just simple words like
said will be take two etc etc simple
words and then plug it into the class to
analysis simple techniques that you
learn with our master students so class
analysis is producing us the tree which
we call the dendrogram the claw there
are books together in this tree the more
related they are so at first step you
realize that all the
Lord of the Rings coming together then
we have the Hobbit over there then the
rest of the books by the John Ronald
Reuel Tolkien and in the end three books
edited by Christopher Tolkien coming
into play so what I wanted to say with
this speech is actually the kids can
feel statistics right with the games
they know what's good was bad we have a
feeling of the statistics there is a
statistician living inside of all of us
and actually statistics is everywhere
thanks a lot
you
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