Jika Tak Naikkan Suku Bunga, Ini Amunisi BI Tahan Pelemahan Rupiah

Summary

The transcript discusses Indonesia's central bank policy on interest rates and the potential for maintaining current levels. It suggests that if the bank keeps rates steady, it could positively impact the financial industry by avoiding cost increases. Concerns about the weakening Rupiah are addressed, with the speaker noting that it's within reasonable limits compared to other currencies and not causing significant imported inflation. Various instruments are mentioned that the bank could use to stabilize the Rupiah, including interventions in the forex market and issuing SBI. The speaker believes that the central bank has ample tools and reserves to manage currency stability without aggressively raising interest rates.

Takeaways

• 📉 The market response would be more positive if Bank Indonesia maintains the current interest rate, as it would mean the cost of finance for industries in Indonesia would not continue to rise.
• 💹 Investors are concerned that higher costs could pressure the performance of the financial industry, reducing net interest margins and credit growth due to tighter liquidity.
• 💨 The current weakening of the Rupiah is considered within reasonable limits compared to other currencies, such as the Japanese Yen and ASEAN countries' currencies like the Malaysian Ringgit.
• 🛑 The weakening of the Rupiah is not expected to cause significant inflationary pressure or imported inflation, as the currencies of trading partners are also depreciating against the US dollar.
• 🛡 Bank Indonesia has other instruments to stabilize the Rupiah's depreciation, such as triple interventions, issuing SBI (State Bonds), and offering foreign currency in the Forex market and derivatives.
• 💰 Bank Indonesia has been actively issuing SBI since September, successfully absorbing liquidity and attracting foreign capital, which can be used for currency interventions.
• 🔄 The possibility of raising interest rates might be a last resort if the Rupiah's depreciation continues, but for now, it's not deemed necessary to maintain the currency's value.
• 🌐 The duration of the Rupiah's pressure is uncertain and depends on how quickly the US Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates, affecting global currency trends.
• 🏦 The strength of the 'triple intervention' by Bank Indonesia in maintaining the Rupiah against the US dollar is significant and can continue to be effective.
• 💼 The stability of the Rupiah is more important for supporting domestic credit growth and the overall economy rather than forcing the currency to strengthen against a scarce US dollar.
• 🌟 Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are substantial and above international standards, providing a strong buffer to maintain the Rupiah's value and volatility.

Q & A

What is the current stance of Bank Indonesia regarding interest rates?

Bank Indonesia is considering maintaining its current interest rate levels to support the financial industry and avoid increasing costs that could put pressure on the performance of financial institutions.

How would the market respond if Bank Indonesia maintains its interest rates?

The market response would likely be positive, as it would indicate that the cost of finance in Indonesia will not continue to rise, alleviating concerns about the financial industry's performance and net interest margins.

What is the current condition of the Indonesian Rupiah compared to other currencies?

The weakening of the Rupiah is within a reasonable range when compared to other currencies such as the Japanese Yen and currencies of other ASEAN countries like the Malaysian Ringgit.

How does the depreciation of the Rupiah affect imported inflation?

The depreciation of the Rupiah is not causing a significant increase in imported inflation because the currencies of trading partners are also depreciating against the US dollar, leading to a decrease in the cost of imported goods.

What measures can Bank Indonesia take to support the Rupiah's value?

Bank Indonesia can use various instruments such as triple interventions, issuing SBI (State Savings Certificates), and offering products in the foreign exchange market and derivatives to attract investors and intervene in the Rupiah's exchange rate.

What is the impact of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global currencies, including the Rupiah?

The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have a global impact. If the Fed continues to raise rates, it puts pressure on currencies worldwide. However, when the Fed cuts rates, it can relieve this pressure and potentially strengthen currencies like the Rupiah.

How does the global economic situation affect the Rupiah's value?

The global economic situation, particularly the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, significantly influences the Rupiah. External factors, such as the scarcity of the US dollar worldwide, also play a role in the Rupiah's depreciation.

What role do Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves play in maintaining the Rupiah's stability?

Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are a crucial tool for Bank Indonesia to maintain the Rupiah's stability. They provide a buffer against volatility and can be used to intervene in the currency market.

How does Indonesia's trade surplus contribute to its foreign exchange reserves?

Indonesia's consistent trade surplus, which has been positive for over 43 months, contributes to the increase in foreign exchange reserves, thereby strengthening the Rupiah.

What are the potential future scenarios for the Rupiah's value in the next three months?

The Rupiah is expected to be relatively stronger in the next three months compared to its current position, influenced by factors such as the potential for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the temporary nature of the current depreciation.

How does the scarcity of the US dollar globally affect Indonesia's currency policy?

The global scarcity of the US dollar makes it counterproductive for Indonesia to force the Rupiah to strengthen against the dollar. Instead, maintaining domestic stability and supporting economic growth through credit growth is preferred.

Outlines

00:00

🏦 Bank Indonesia's Monetary Policy Outlook

The paragraph discusses the potential future monetary policy of Bank Indonesia, including the possibility of maintaining current interest rates. It suggests that if Bank Indonesia holds the rates steady, the market response would be positive, as it would imply stability in the cost of financial industry operations in Indonesia. Concerns about higher costs pressuring the financial industry's performance and credit availability due to tighter liquidity are also mentioned. The speaker also touches on the weakening of the Rupiah, comparing it to other currencies and stating that it's within reasonable limits and not causing significant inflationary pressure. Various instruments that Bank Indonesia could use to stabilize the Rupiah's value are outlined, such as triple interventions, issuing SBI (Surat Berharga di Indonesia), and managing foreign exchange and derivative markets.

05:01

🌐 Impact of Global Factors on Rupiah's Depreciation

This paragraph delves into the factors contributing to the Rupiah's depreciation against the US Dollar, emphasizing that external factors play a more significant role than internal ones. The scarcity of the US Dollar is a global phenomenon, reflected in the stable US Dollar Index. The speaker argues against artificially strengthening the Rupiah against the scarce Dollar and advocates for maintaining domestic stability. The role of Bank Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in supporting the Rupiah without the need for continuous interest rate hikes is highlighted. The speaker also discusses the strength of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, the effectiveness of instruments used to absorb foreign liquidity, and the consistent trade surplus as factors contributing to the stability of the Rupiah. The potential for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates faster than expected due to poor inflation data in the US is also mentioned, which could strengthen the Rupiah in the coming months.

Keywords

💡Bank Indonesia

Bank Indonesia is the central bank of Indonesia, responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy. In the script, it is discussed in the context of its potential to maintain interest rates and its interventions to stabilize the Indonesian Rupiah. The speaker mentions the bank's use of 'triple interventions' and other financial instruments to manage the currency's value.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are a central tool used by central banks to control inflation and stabilize currency values. The script discusses the possibility of Bank Indonesia maintaining current interest rates, which would positively impact the market by keeping the cost of finance for industries stable, as opposed to increasing costs that could pressure financial performance and narrow net interest margins.

💡Market Response

Market response refers to how financial markets react to economic data, policies, or events. The script suggests that if Bank Indonesia maintains interest rates, the market would respond positively, as it would indicate stability in the cost of finance and alleviate concerns about rising costs pressuring industry performance.

💡Rupiah

The Rupiah is the official currency of Indonesia. The script discusses the depreciation of the Rupiah and the measures Bank Indonesia might take to stabilize its value. The speaker also mentions the Rupiah's current depreciation level being reasonable compared to other currencies.

💡Depreciation

Depreciation in the context of currency refers to a decrease in value relative to other currencies. The script discusses the depreciation of the Rupiah and factors that could influence it, such as external market conditions and the strength of the US Dollar.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script touches on concerns that higher costs could lead to increased inflation pressures and the potential for 'imported inflation' due to a weaker Rupiah affecting imported goods' prices.

💡Triple Intervention

Triple intervention refers to a set of three measures taken by a central bank to stabilize its currency. In the script, it is mentioned as an effective strategy used by Bank Indonesia to prevent the Rupiah's depreciation against the US Dollar.

💡Foreign Exchange Market

The foreign exchange market is where currencies are traded, and it is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. The script discusses Bank Indonesia's interventions in the foreign exchange market to manage the Rupiah's value.

💡Derivatives

Derivatives are financial instruments whose value depends on the value of other underlying assets. In the script, derivatives are mentioned as one of the instruments that Bank Indonesia could offer to investors to manage currency risks and stabilize the Rupiah.

💡Trade Surplus

A trade surplus occurs when a country exports more than it imports. The script mentions Indonesia's consistent trade surplus as a positive factor contributing to the stability of the Rupiah and the country's foreign exchange reserves.

💡Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign exchange reserves are assets held by a central bank in foreign currencies. The script discusses the adequacy of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves as a buffer to maintain the stability of the Rupiah and protect against currency crises.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. The script speculates on the Fed's potential to reduce interest rates, which could impact global financial markets and the value of the US Dollar, indirectly affecting the Rupiah.

💡Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the US Dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The script mentions the stability of the Dollar Index as an indicator of the global scarcity of the US Dollar, which influences the Rupiah's value.

Highlights

The market response would be more positive if Bank Indonesia maintains the current interest rates, as it implies the cost of finance for industries in Indonesia will not continue to rise.

Concerns from investors that higher costs could squeeze the performance of the financial industry and reduce net interest margins.

The fear that pressure or tight liquidity could hamper future credit due to banks' absorption capacity.

The current weakening of the Rupiah is within an acceptable limit when compared to other currencies such as the Japanese Yen and ASEAN countries' currencies.

The weakening of the Rupiah is not expected to cause a significant increase in inflation or imported inflation due to depreciation of other countries' currencies.

Bank Indonesia still has other instruments to stabilize the Rupiah's depreciation, such as triple interventions and issuing SBI.

Bank Indonesia's active issuance of SBI since September has successfully absorbed liquidity and attracted foreign capital, which can be used for currency intervention.

The possibility of raising interest rates might be a last resort if the Rupiah's depreciation continues.

The effectiveness of triple interventions in preventing the Rupiah's depreciation against the US Dollar is discussed.

The duration of the Rupiah's pressure depends on how quickly the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which is a global phenomenon.

The weakening of the Rupiah is more due to external factors than internal ones, as the US Dollar is scarce globally.

Maintaining domestic stability and supporting credit growth is more important than keeping the Rupiah at a certain level by continuously raising interest rates.

Bank Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to maintain the Rupiah and prevent it from depreciating too much.

The increase in foreign exchange reserves is not only from foreign capital inflows but also from consistent trade surpluses.

The chance of Indonesia being deeply affected by a currency crisis like the one in 1998 is very slim due to strong foreign exchange reserves and continuous trade surpluses.

The potential for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates faster than expected, due to poor inflation data, could make the Rupiah relatively stronger in the next three months.

The current weakening of the Rupiah is considered temporary and is happening in many countries, not just Indonesia.

Transcripts

kebijakan bank Indonesia untuk e suku

bunganya begitu ya ke depan yang mana

anda proyeksikan Bank Indonesia masih

memiliki peluang juga untuk

mempertahankan suku bunganya di hari ini

kalau misalnya apabila nanti Bank

Indonesia benar-benar begitu ya

mempertahankan suku bunga di level saat

ini sebetulnya respon pasar akan seperti

apa di hari ini Mas

Mikail Ya saya rasa eh pasar responnya

akan lebih

e positif ya kalau misalkan bi eh

ahankan eh tingkat suku bunganya karena

berarti eh cost of industri-industri

keuangan di Indonesia itu tidak akan

melanjutkan kenaikan ya Karena

kekhawatiran dari Para investor bahwa e

cost of yang semakin tinggi itu akan

membuat kinerja industri keuangan kita

itu akan semakin tertekan ya Net

interest marginnya akan semakin mengecil

eh dan juga ketakutan bahwa tekanan atau

akan menghambat kredit ke depannya eh

karena likuiditas yang akan artinya

semakin ketat untuk diabsorb oleh bank

sentral gitu ya nah jadi eh saya melihat

bahwa Pelemahan Rupiah sekarang masih di

level batas yang wajar ya kalau kita

lihat dibandingkan dengan mata uangm

uang negara lain seperti seperti Jepang

Ya seperti

e mata uang negara-negara ASEAN lain

seperti Ringgit Malaysia gitu ya

Kelemahan e mata uang Rupiah masih di

level yang wajar dan sayaasa ra tidak

terlalu membuat tekanan inflasi atau

imported inflation mengalami kenaikan

karena counterpy kita juga barang-barang

yang kita impor dari rekan-rekan dagang

kita di negara lain juga mengalami

penurunan artinya karena mata uang

mereka juga mengalami depresiasi

terhadap dolar seperti itu jadi imported

inflation still di di di di kondisi ini

tidak terlalu tinggi dan apa namanya

efeknya besarnya jadi saya rasa Bi masih

punya instrumen-instrumen lain yang bisa

Bi aktifkan untuk menahan laju Pelemahan

nilai tukar Rupiah tadi ya seperti trip

seperti triple interventions ya Dipar

obligasi terus juga di

eh pasar mata uang di di mata uang asing

ya di Forex market dan juga di derivatif

produk yang bi bisa Tawarkan ke investor

dan juga Bi juga secara aktif Dari bulan

September tahun lalu menerbitkan srbi ya

yang berhasil menyerap sekitar 400

triliun lebih ee likuiditas dan juga

Dana asing masuk sekitar 70 triliun dari

di srbi sehingga ini bisa bi eh apa

namanya dana yang bi kumpulkan bisa Bi

gunakan untuk eh mengintervensi nilai

tukar Rupiah yang sekarang melemah jadi

saya rasa

eh kenaikan tingkat suku bunga mungkin

jurus terakhir ya kalau misalkan

eh Pelemahan rupiah ini kembali

berlanjut Katakanlah sampai dengan bulan

Juli ya Eh tahun ini gitu seperti itu

tapi untuk di level sekarang saya rasa

bi belum cukup apa namanya

ee untuk bisa menaikkan tingkat sukunga

ya untuk mempertahankan rupiah eh market

juga akan melihat data n raca

perdagangan kalau data neraca

perdagangan di Indonesia di bulan lalu

itu cukup besar ya atau melanjutkan at

least bisa melanjutkan surplus sekitar 3

miliar dolar ke atas Saya rasa ini juga

akan membantu rupiah tanpa Bi harus

menaikkan tingkat suku bunga Oke baik

Mas Mikhail apabila anda katakan tadi

triple intervention Bi ini cukup efektif

dalam menahan depresiasi Rupiah terhadap

dolar sebetulnya Andai kita lihat dari

kondisi yang ada seberapa kuat triple

intervention b ini juga dapat terus

dilakukan dalam menjaga Pelemahan rupiah

yang tentunya banyak orang yang

mengkhawatirkan ini akan berlangsung

cukup

lama ya E saya rasa lama atau tidaknya

rupiah tertekan itu kembali lagi balik

lagi ke seberapa cepat Bank Sentral

Amerika atau defet untuk memangkas

tingkat suku bungananya karena ini

adalah Fenomena global ya tidak hanya

terjadi di Indonesia tapi juga terjadi

di negara-negara yang makroekonominya

jauh lebih kuat dibandingkan Indonesia

ya seperti Jepang karena Kanya surplus

Malaysia karena Kanya surplus sekitar 3%

dari GDP ee jauh lebih besar daripada

Indonesia ya tapi juga mengalami

Pelemahan dari sisi mata uangnya artinya

kelemahan dari sisi mata uang ini tidak

hanya disebabkan oleh faktor fundamental

ya tapi juga faktor ee apa namanya

ekspektasi eh investor Global bahwa

tingkat suku bunga di Amerika ini masih

akan terusmenerus tinggi dalam waktu

yang lama seperti itu Jadi begitu the F

mulai memangkas tingkat suku bunganya

artinya Titing cycle Global ini berakhir

karena tidak mungkin Bank Sentral hanya

sekali memangkas tingkat suku bunganya

ya artinya su Bank Sentral itu harus

cukup cukup firm ya terhadap investor ya

Jadi kalau begitu dia memangkas tingkat

suku bunga maka biasanya akan diikuti

oleh pemangkasan tingkat suku bunga

berikutnya gitu artinya tekanan

inflasinya sudah semakin reda dan tidak

mengancam lagi untuk bank sentral

kembali menaikkan tingkat suku bunga

jadi sangat ditentukan oleh seberapa

cepat the F untuk memangkas tingkat suku

bunga jadi

eh Pelemahan rupiah terhadap mata uang

Dolar lihatnya lebih disebabkan oleh

faktor eksternal dibandingkan faktor

internal kita karena memang dolarnya

yang langka ya fenomena kelangkaan dolar

ini terjadi eh di seluruh dunia saya

lihat ya Dan ini sudah tercermin dari

data dolar indeks

yang meningkat atau naik atau berada

sangat stabil di level di atas 104 ya

Nah ini menunjukkan bahwa dolar memang

langka gitu ya dan sangat

konterproduktif bagi kita untuk

memaksakan rupiah untuk menguat terhadap

dolar ketika dolarnya memang langka di

dunia gitu ya jadi ee lebih baik kita ee

menurut saya mempertahankan stabilitas

dalam negeri kita Bi akan lebih

suppportif terhadap pertumbuhan kredit

untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi

secara umum dibandingkan kita harus

mempertahankan rupiah di level tertentu

ya

Ee dengan cara terus-menerus menaikkan

tingkat ee suku bunga menurut saya

seperti itu jadi

ee saya rasa peluang bagi Bi untuk

mempertahankan tingkat sukuubungan di

rdg bulan ini sangat-sangat besar oke

baik Mas Mikail tentunya kita pahami

bersama di mana cadangan devisa juga

menjadi tenaga dalam Bank Indonesia

untuk mempertahankan rupiah kita agar

memang tidak terperosok lebih dalam Anda

dikaitkan dengan angka cadangan devisa

kita saat ini sebetulnya juga Berapa

lama tenaga kita juga ini bisa untuk

mempertahankan rupiah agar tidak anjlok

terlalu dalam menantikan kebijakan the

Fet yang juga belum bisa diketahui kapan

akan memangka suku

bunganya ya untuk cadangan bisa Bank

Indonesia yang sekarang dimiliki Bang

Indonesia sangat cukup ya Menurut saya

ya jauh di atas kecukupan standar

internasional ya Ee cadangan devisa yang

dimiliki oleh Indonesia ee untuk menjaga

Eh volatilitas nilai tukar ee rupiah

kita untuk tidak terlalu tinggi ya

Ditambah lagi dengan instrumen ee

instrumen yang dikeluarkan oleh bank

Indonesia untuk menyerap dolar atau

menyerap likuiditas asing dari

masyarakat Indonesia maupun dari

investor luar negeri itu e Saya rasa e

cukup besar ditambah lagi

Eh kenaikan dari cadangan devisa kita

ini tidak hanya dari

eh arus modal asing masuk seperti dari

bons atau dari equity ya tapi juga dari

trade surplus yang konsisten terus

terjadi ya ee lebih mungkin lebih dari

43 bulan berturut-turut ya kita

menikmati trade surplus ya Ee di

Indonesia jadi kenaikan e apa namanya eh

cadangan devisa kita juga lewat eh apa

namanya eh kinerja Ekspor kita yang

surplus Nah jadi ini Saya rasa sangat

sangat apa istilahnya sangat kuat ya

cadangan devisa kita untuk menahan nilai

tukar Rupiah kita untuk tidak terlalu

jauh volatilitasnya atau depresiasinya

tidak terlalu dalam eh Bi punya

instrumen devisa yang sangat cukup jauh

dari atas dari ambang batas standar

internasional yang di ee dilihat oleh

banyak lembaga internasional seperti AMF

gitu ya jadi saya rasa peluang bagi

Indonesia Katakanlah terperosok dengan

krisis nilai tukar Misalkan seperti apa

yang terjadi di tahun 98 sangat-sangat

jauh ya kita lihat cadangan devisa kita

sudah apa namanya cukup kuat cukup empel

menurut saya ditambah kita menikmati

trade surplus yang eh terus-menerus eh

ini membuat saya rasa sih peluang bagi

rupiah untuk terdepresiasi cukup dalam

itu cukup kecil ya untuk e tahun ini

gitu ya ditambah lagi ada peluang tadi

theect akan memangkas tingkat suku bunga

dan mungkin akan jauh lebih cepat dari

perkiraan eh karena data-data inflasi di

Amerika jelek Ini kedua faktor ini ya

ini yang akan membuat rupiah ini

relatifely jauh lebih kuat eh 3 bulan ke

depan ya dibandingkan Posisi sekarang

jadi Saya rasa ini Pelemahan rupiah yang

terjadi sekarang menurut saya temporary

ya terjadi dan memang terjadi di banyak

negara gitu tidak hanya di Indonesia