Donald Trump and Nikki Haley last two standing in Republican primaries | Planet America | ABC News
Summary
TLDRThe script discusses the 2024 U.S. presidential election race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. It analyzes Trump's New Hampshire primary win over rival Nikki Haley and Haley's vow to continue campaigning. Biden starts his campaign by focusing on abortion rights. The script also covers attempts at an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza and perspectives on the conflict. Analysts discuss both candidates' flaws, key election issues like abortion and immigration, whether the lengthy campaign favors Trump or Biden, and the viability of a two-state solution. There is some optimism about possibly unlocking Israeli-Palestinian peace talks but major hurdles remain.
Takeaways
- 😀 Nikki Haley remains defiant after New Hampshire loss, vows to continue fighting Trump
- 😮 Trump makes false claims about past election wins in NH victory speech
- 🤔 Haley increasingly targets Trump's age and mental fitness in attacks
- 👍 Biden gets a boost as exit polls show resistance to Trump in GOP ranks
- 😕 Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks break down again over prisoner swap
- 😟 US frustrated as Netanyahu dismisses two-state solution for Middle East
- 😠 Biden interrupted repeatedly by protesters at campaign abortion event
- 🤨 Trump advisor says Biden now slight favorite due to indictment factor
- 😌 Support for war still high in Israel despite casualties and critiques
- 😞 Experts say two-state solution only path ahead but both sides resistant
Q & A
What was Nikki Haley's strategy in the New Hampshire primary?
-Nikki Haley's strategy was to appeal to moderates and independent voters in New Hampshire. She campaigned heavily there for months and was endorsed by the popular moderate Republican Governor Chris Sununu.
How did Donald Trump perform among different age groups in the New Hampshire primary?
-Donald Trump performed better among younger voters. His worst demographic was voters over 65, among whom he won 53%. His best was voters under 30, among whom he won 58%.
What false claims did Donald Trump make in his New Hampshire victory speech?
-Trump falsely claimed he had won New Hampshire 3 times, including in the 2016 and 2020 general elections. In fact, he lost New Hampshire in both of those elections.
How are Democrats trying to make abortion a key issue in the 2024 election?
-Democrats are running ads focused on abortion, including an ad telling the story of a woman who had to get an abortion for medical reasons after Roe v. Wade was overturned. Biden also held a rally focused on abortion.
What are the main obstacles to a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas?
-The main obstacles are disagreements over the duration of a ceasefire, the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released, and the timeline for releasing them. There is also a lack of trust between the parties.
What is Biden's goal for the Israel-Palestine conflict?
-Biden wants a two-state solution with an independent Palestinian state existing peacefully alongside Israel. However, Netanyahu has rejected this.
Why do many Israelis still support the war despite casualties?
-Many Israelis feel invaded and view the October 7th attack as a personal violation. There is a national psychology of feeling under threat that leads to support for military action.
What can ordinary Palestinians do to improve the situation?
-Ordinary Palestinians have little ability to speak out due to restrictions from Palestinian and Israeli leadership. Support from the international community is needed to empower moderates.
How long have Trump and Biden been leading figures in US politics?
-Trump has dominated Republican politics for 8 years since 2016. Biden has been a leading national figure for Democrats for decades, including 8 years as Vice President.
What happened in the New Hampshire Democratic primary?
-There was no real Democratic primary. Biden's name wasn't on the ballot but he won a write-in vote over fringe candidates to avoid an embarrassing loss.
Outlines
🎥 Intro to political chat show covering primaries and foreign affairs
John Baron and CH introduce a political chat show that will cover the Republican primaries with Donald Trump's victory in New Hampshire and Nikki Haley's continued campaign. They also discuss foreign affairs including Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations and air strikes in Yemen.
🐘 Analysis of Trump's NH primary win and Haley's continued attacks
John and CH analyze Trump's 11-point victory over Nikki Haley in the NH primary. They discuss Haley's continued presence in the race despite her loss, her attacks on Trump's age and mental fitness, and Trump's angry reaction to Haley in his victory speech.
🐘 Biden's muted response to NH primary win; focus on abortion rights
Biden had a muted response to winning the NH Democratic primary, instead focusing his messaging on abortion rights in a speech with Kamala Harris. The speech was interrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters.
🐘 Discussion on whether the GOP primary race is over
John and CH discuss whether the Republican primary is effectively over after Trump's back-to-back wins in IA and NH. They analyze Haley's continued presence as a protest vote against Trump and the high numbers of GOP voters saying they won't support Trump.
🐘 Interview with former Trump advisor on state of GOP primary race
John and CH interview Sam Nunberg, a former Trump advisor, who argues Trump is the slight favorite over Biden. He analyzes Trump and Haley's ages as a campaign issue and defends Trump against claims of cognitive decline.
🌍 Hopes and challenges for Israel-Hamas ceasefire and peace
John and CH discuss attempts at an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and Gaza reconstruction to establish a Palestinian state. Netanyahu has rejected a two-state solution. US frustration grows with both sides.
🌍 Interview with former US Ambassador on Israel-Palestine conflict
John interviews former Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Kurtzer discusses Biden's desire for a ceasefire and two-state solution, and the possible opening created by the conflict.
🌍 Interview with Obama advisor on views in Israel and potential solutions
John interviews Mara Rudman, former advisor to Obama, on why the Israel-Hamas war remains popular in Israel. She argues a two-state solution is the only long-term option but will require much work.
🎤 Sign off from political chat show
John and CH sign off from the political chat show, previewing upcoming episodes on ABC TV, YouTube and as a podcast.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡New Hampshire primary
💡comeback
💡age attacks
💡cognitive decline
💡indictments
💡abortion
💡Israel-Palestine conflict
💡two-state solution
💡Ukraine
💡general election
Highlights
First significant highlight
Second notable highlight
Third key highlight
Fourth main highlight
Fifth top highlight
Transcripts
hello there welcome to Planet America's
fireside chat I'm John Baron I'm CH this
week and then there were two or possibly
just one Donald Trump claims a second
state Nikki Haley Ponders the road ahead
and we will talk to a former Trump
advisor who says that Joe Biden is now
the slight favorite and we're going to
look at hopes for a longer lasting peace
in the Middle East as Israel and Hamas
fail to agree on ceasefire terms we're
going to speak to a former US ambassador
to Israel and a senior advisor to Barack
Obama but
first
and it was a good result for Donald
Trump in the Granite State this week he
won a comfortable 11-point win over his
last remaining serious rival Nikki Haley
now the Republican primary record
turnouts of 300,000 voters John even
more than the 287,000 in 2016 so scratch
that theory from last week that
Republicans aren't motivated I'm going
to come back to that number in a second
but as always there were some
interesting exit poles first interesting
result here the younger the voter was
the better Donald Trump did it wasn't a
huge difference mind you but Trump's
worst demographic was over 65s he won
53% of them and his best demographic was
under 30s he won 58% of them now there
weren't many under 30s only 10% of
Voters but still interesting I think it
is I guess it suggests if you are a
young Republican these days you are a
trump Republican these days he's been
dominating the for 8 years now which in
young people's lives is a long time
that's right unsurprisingly Haley won
the Undeclared voters they're the
independence she won them 64 to 35% but
Trump won a massive
74% of Republican voters and that is why
Nikki Haley simply cannot win this
primary actual Republicans don't rate
her here is some more evidence of that
when asked their opinion of who they
voted for 76% of those who strongly
favor their candidate voted for Trump
for 57% of those who have some
reservations about their candidate voted
for Haley and 89% of those who voted for
their candidate because they well don't
like the other candidate they voted for
Haley do their maths and that means
about 30 of the 43% of people who voted
for Haley don't really like her very
much so maybe she wouldn't be such a
strong general election candidate after
all mind you Trump has his own issu
admittedly there were a lot of
independent voters in this primary were
but 42% of Voters in a Republican
primary said that Trump would not be fit
to be president if he was convicted of a
crime now sure many of them might be
convinced otherwise during this year but
42% is a lot to start with and this
would this part here would be really
making Trump nervous is from AP votecast
John guess what share on New Hampshire
Independents who voted in the Republican
primary said they will not vote for
Trump regardless of whether he is
convicted or not in the general election
well I'm assuming from your turn of
voice it is a high number to make it
interesting I would guess maybe one in
three 68% John of Independence in their
primary the Republican primary said they
will not vote for Trump 21% of rep
Republicans in the New Hampshire primary
said that they will not vote for Trump
even if he's not convicted I imagine
that's probably the more important
figure even though it's not as
eye-catching because well in an ordinary
year Independence who would never
support Trump might have actually voted
in a proper Democratic primary and there
wasn't one we'll talk about that in a
bit as well but that one in five
Republicans won't vote for Trump that
will be causing concern absolutely and
Fox News they they analysis said that
overall 35% of the voters on the New
Hampshire primary total all voters said
they will not vote for Trump in the
general election now there are two
possible explanations you've already
touched on one uh the well the the one
that Democrats will be hoping for is
that the Republican party is cracking up
and that and that Trump actually has a a
large area of resistance against him in
the general election and he's got a
problem the other one you've touched on
maybe there's no problem here at all
Maybe we're seeing is look at that
record turnout 300,000 voters maybe
50,000 of them where people just showed
up just to vote against Trump they would
they would never support Republicans
they they were just registering a
protest that is possible there's no way
we can know at this point in time where
the Republicans have a problem or not we
will know in South Carolina because
South Carolina over the past has had
about 18% of moderates and liberals
voting if in a month's time there that's
25% or that's 30% then we know there is
a big protest vote happening if not then
we know Donald Trump might have a
problem yeah and that's consistent with
what we've seen really through Trump's
political career as far back as it goes
to 2016 he has this incredible power to
motivate people to vote for him who
would otherwise not normally vote but he
has an even greater power to motivate
people to vote against him only once in
2016 did the prot Trump vote outweigh
the anti-trump Trump vote and to an
extent then it might have been a
combination of other factors including
Hillary Clinton's unpopularity and the
Comey letter to Congress and a whole
bunch of other things that could have
tipped it to him so it is a fascinating
Dynamic to watch and also we are seeing
an incredibly negative phase in the
campaign in the last week since it
became head-to-head Haley versus Trump
the New Hampshire primary result did
come after a frantic final week of
campaigning and Trump well it started
off with a bit of a boost from former
rivals first there was an endorsement
from Senator Tim Scott and then after he
dropped out Governor Ronda santz we need
a president who will restore Law and
Order we need Donald Trump I've had
disagreements with Donald Trump such as
on the Corona virus pandemic and his
elevation of Anthony fouchy Trump is
superior to the current incumbent Joe
Biden that is clear he has my
endorsement because we can't go back to
the old Republican guard of yesty year a
repackage form of warmed over
corporatism that Nikki Haley represents
yeah and that speech there was tweeted
out with this inspirational quote
attached Success is Not final failure is
not final it is the courage to continue
the counts that's by Winston Churchill
very inspirational indeed except for one
Minor Detail now you might recall that
Ronda Sanders went to war against Beer
Company Budweiser last year after they
used a transgender spokesperson for a
marketing campaign well Budweiser got
the last laugh because that's a Ed
Winston Churchill quote there wasn't
actually said by Winston Churchill turns
out it came from a Budweiser ad in
1938 and it's funny how these things
work out it's a very common
misconception online that that's a
Winston chill quote and that's where the
S campaign sort because they are
permanently online but John I was
wondering if you have any thoughts about
how the santis went from being the
future according to the New York Post to
yesterday's news within 14 months one of
the things about this very long
presidential campaign process the
primary process and so on is it does
have a way of finding candidates out you
get tested in States like Iowa and New
Hampshire when like Ronda Sanders did
you go to all 99 counties uh and you
meet people in small groups of a few
dozen or a few hundred you talk to
people the media is scrutinizing your
interactions do you relate well with
just ordinary voters or not and DeSantis
was not good at that and he was not good
at that uh when he then you know tried
to relate to voters through the medium
of uh televised debates he looked
awkward he he couldn't smile
authentically and there were some
profound problems that he had now
policies are important personalities and
just the Optics of these candidates when
you're auditioning somebody to be
president of the United States it's not
like a governor or a senator or
something that you pay a little bit of
attention to you really scrutinize these
people do I see them on Mount Rushmore
one day in the case of Ronda Sanders I
think it was quite simple lots of
reasons for it but the biggest reason
was Ronda santz the Mount Rushmore is
safe for now look there's a lot of
conventional wisdom out there that the
reason he lost was essentially because
of the indictments right that the moment
the indictments came down Trump was
never going to lose uh there is some
evidence for that if you look at the
polling averages of the various
candidates you can see Trump had a big
boost when the first indictment came
down uh back in the end of March early
April uh from New York the Alvin brag
one you can see it's a huge jump there
and the Sans had a little will drop but
what I'm looking at is desantis's line
you can see that graph starts in January
last year it's just a constant straight
line down from the beginning his Peak
was essentially when people got to know
first saw him after the midterms and the
more they got to know him the less they
liked him so to me the indictments
didn't help uh his tactics in Iowa may
or may not have worked whatever the
debates may or may not have been good
but essentially there's something
fundamentally wrong with him as a
candidate I think that the more people
saw him the less they liked him and the
strategy was a problem as well because
desantis's strategy in trying to win
Trump voters was not to go too hard on
Donald Trump so DeSantis uh didn't
attack Donald Trump in a full-throated
fashion he talked about these being
politically motivated indictments he
could have said in May of last year we
cannot nominate a candidate who is going
to be a criminal I like Donald Trump I
support him in the past but we just
can't go back there time to turn the
page he could have gone in harder he
didn't do that I think that was his
other mistake as well as just Ron being
wrong well conservatives actually say
the opposite they say he could have
defended Trump more that he had a bit of
half and half now I don't know who's
right between you and the conserv like I
said I'm not sure either a right I'm
looking at that line it just keeps going
down and after the indictments I think
it's just wrong now D saying he could
never win but there's something about
his candidacy that he needs to work on
fundamentally I feel looking at that
line yeah and and in very simple terms
it's hard to put yourself forward as an
alternative to Donald Trump when there's
Donald Trump and you can have him unless
these criminal indictments get hold of
him first but one of the big issues
leading up to the primary in New
Hampshire this week was whether at 77
years of age Donald Trump is starting to
slip is he even up to the job for a
second term after years of questioning
Joe Biden's mental acuity Donald Trump
is now facing serious doubts about his
State of Mind being fueled by slips like
this where Trump was talking about Nancy
Pelosi back on January 6 in the capital
r but he kept getting her name wrong by
the way they never report the crowd on
January 6 you know Nikki Haley Nikki
Haley Nikki Haley you know they did you
know they destroyed all of the
information all of the evidence
everything deleted and destroyed all of
it all of it because of lots of things
like Nikki Haley is in charge of
security we offered her 10,000 people
soldiers National Guard whatever they
want they turned it down they don't want
to talk about it the reality is he was
confused he was confused the same way he
said Joe Biden was going to start World
War
II he was confused the same way that he
said he ran against President
Obama it was Hillary Clinton yeah saying
that the potential nominee of your party
is confused that's a pretty big call for
Nikki Haley to be making right now and
after the primary was called Haley made
a very defiant concession speech
suggesting that she is still very much
in this for the long haul this race is
far from over there are dozens of States
left to
[Applause]
go and the next one is my sweet state of
South Carolina
and certainly chz Nikki haly isn't
letting up in her attacks on her former
boss she is now repeatedly making this
argument that of all the Republicans out
there she is the most electable with
Donald Trump Republicans have lost
almost every competitive election we
lost the Senate we lost the house we
lost the White House we lost in 2018 we
lost in 2020 and we lost in 2020
the worst kept secret in politics is how
badly the Democrats want to run against
Donald
Trump Trump's a loser he's a loser yeah
Haley supporters calling Trump a loser
from the crowd there would not have gone
down at all well at maral Lago and as
well as attacking Trump's mental Fitness
and rep referring repeatedly to the
chaos of Trump's presidency uh you think
that this is really B ing Trump now
because his tone was entirely different
his victory speech after New Hampshire
he was cranky he was sirly he was angry
compare that to the kind of Kumbaya
unifying speech of just a week earlier
after he won in Iowa take a look at this
I said I can go up and I can say to
everybody oh thank you for the victory
it's wonderful it's or I can go up and
say who the hell was the impostor that
went up on the stage before and like
claimed a victory she did very poor
actually she had to win the governor
said she's going to win she's going to
win she's going to win then she she
failed badly look there's a bit of mind
reading here from me but I'm guessing
that Trump's annoyance wasn't so much
about Haley saying that she's more
electable than him so much as her really
doubling down on that Trump's not
mentally fit line I think he would have
hated that have a look the other day
Donald Trump accused me of not providing
security at the capital on January 6th
now I've long called for mental
competency tests for politicians over
the age of
[Applause]
[Music]
75 Trump claims he'd do better than me
in one of those tests maybe he would
maybe he wouldn't but if he thinks that
then he should have no problem standing
on a debate St with
me and that was the grab that all the
news programs ran on the night of the
New Hampshire primary Trump would have
hated that I reckon you particularly
hated hearing that audience member
yelling out
jerryatric the problem for Trump though
is by Haley going so hard on these old
person attacks she mainstreams them the
Democrats have been trying to run these
attacks for ages no one's bit soon as
Haley starts running them another
Republican it gets in the newspapers
they're everywhere and this is why Trump
wants to end this primary now so my
question to you John is is he right is
this primary over effectively well if
this were a normal year then you would
say a republican candidate who wins Iowa
and New Hampshire only incumbents have
ever done that in the past so Trump as a
technically non-incumbent winning those
two you'd have to say it is almost
certainly over that being said we''re
only talking about a couple of dozen
delegates for each of the two leading
candidates so far they need over a
thousand so there's a long way to go the
question is does Nikki Haley really
think that she's got enough momentum
from a third place in Iowa and a second
place in New Hampshire to suddenly win
South Carolina her home state if she
doesn't win South Carolina her home
state it's going to look pretty bad and
it's not going to help her on super
Tuesday but if she does stay in through
South Carolina and super Tuesday as well
why is she staying in is it because she
thinks that one of these criminal cases
is going to derail Trump's campaign and
she can say well I came second not you
know I'm not going to quit a week after
Ron quit because that puts us on a par
at a broken convention hypothetically
instead it says well I was I was the
other candidate that got 40% support
throughout the primary so maybe that's
the play or maybe the people that are
bankrolling Nikki Haley like her
supporters really hate Trump and would
rather see Joe Biden be president for
four more years or Carmela Harris than
Donald Trump for four more years we'll
find out what Nikki Haley's play is soon
but it could also be in two or three
days she'll get a look at a South
Carolina poll that has it down by 30
points and says you know what I'm done
that may be the case I like for us worth
I do think it's effectively over I think
yes they've only voted in two small
states so far but honestly if she's
going to win anywhere it would be New
Hampshire everything was going well for
there her there she was she had
campaigned there for months Trump
campaigned almost not at all the last
week he's been in court while she's been
campaigning against him she was endorsed
by the popular moderate Governor
extremely popular Governor Chris Nunu
who was not just endorsing her but
campaigning next to her they were
attached at the hip for weeks and he's a
great campaigner she appeals
particularly the moderates she won in
7422 well guess what New Hampshire has a
lot of moderates uh 46% of the fields
were Undeclared uh she also appeals
particularly to college educated New
Hampshire is eighth in America as far as
college education goes um she had also
the New Hampshire has New Hampshire has
a culture of Define Iowa they like to do
the opposite of Iowa and they like to El
moderates she had and she still by 11
points so to me that was a huge she's
where John Kasich was in in 2016 as as
the runner up in a in a state where
you're never going to be second again
you're going to be a distant third or
fourth you're going to be getting 30% of
the vote at best and you look what's
coming up the next thing is Nevada where
she's not even registered in the actual
contest Trump is running unopposed so
he's going to win that she's in some
other pool for some reason I don't
understand then you got South Carolina
she's the governor of yes the
ex-governor of yes but that means they
know her and she's still 30 points down
even though they know her so how is she
going to change their mind it is an Open
Primary you get Democrats uh who can
vote in there but traditionally a lot
more Republicans and conservatives vote
in there and they don't appeal to her
the most optimistic way of Haley looking
at South Carolina is the Obama 2008
Playbook where Barack Obama was polling
very poorly in South Carolina even even
though African-Americans make up the
majority of the democratic electorate
there it took Obama winning in Iowa
coming a close second to Hillary in you
Hampshire for African-American voters to
stop supporting Hillary Clinton because
you remember African-Americans had a
long and abiding tie to particularly
Bill Clinton Tony Morrison describing
him as the first black president well
they they were then convinced that oh
Barack Obama is the real deal he can
play on the national stage we will
support him so Hillary Nikki Hy may be
hoping for a a switch like that but
that's why I think these the polls that
she sees in the next few days will tell
her if that's happening or not you know
what Obama had he had money she's going
to have so much less money than Trump
over the next month uh he's going to
dominate her on the airwaves and on top
of that every single interview she does
next month that half the questions will
be when are you going to drop out Fox
and Friends conducted an interview with
her on the day of New Hampshire where
every question was when are you going to
drop out so that's what she she's going
to give her the stink of of death right
so so it's not going to be easy for her
but I do have a provisor if if it was
normal she should just drop out right
now and maybe she will but given what I
said before about the resistance to
Trump if she's decided to go Chris
Christie and to become the leader of the
resistance against Trump then she should
just go as long as she can that makes
perfect sense let's see how it builds
and we'll know if she's if she's
planning to do that in the next week or
two let's see how she campaigns does she
become more negative does she keep on
going age or does she try and win over
Republican voters by putting herself
forward we'll see yeah well that's the
play if she wants to run for president
again in 2028 which looks like she does
that puts her in a much stronger
position because she's not going to be
Trump's VP but whoever is Trump's VP
will be the front runner for 2028
because Trump cannot serve another term
after that we'll see before we move on
though there's one thing that I wanted
to point out it was a very weird speech
not just angry but weird cognition aside
he literally started his speech with an
out andout falsehood a lie take a listen
to this you know we won New Hampshire
three times now three
three we win it every time we win the
primary we win the generals we've won it
and it's a very very special place to me
it's very important yeah it is certainly
true that Donald Trump won the primaries
in New Hampshire 2016 John Kasich 2020
had a challenge from Bill weld the
former Massachusetts governor beat him
easily and defeating Nikki Haley this
week does mean Trump has won all three
New Hampshire primers but he said he won
the general as well that's the
presidential elections of November of
2016 and 2020 and that is just flat out
wrong he did not win those elections in
2020 he lost to Joe Biden by over seven
points in 2016 he lost to Hillary
Clinton it was a very narrow loss but he
still lost he has never won New
Hampshire at the national level and then
there was another B claim where he
suggested that New Hampshire's Governor
you're talking about Chris sonunu who
endorsed Nikki Haley she he said well
sonunu is on drugs and probably worse
still from Trump's point of view he's
unpopular you have the very the now very
unpopular governor of this state this
guy he's got to be on something I've
never seen anybody with
energy he's like uh Hopscotch don't what
he means by Hopscotch there maybe you
think sonunu is jumping around the state
on one leg but polls show that sonunu is
actually the most popular governors in
America 63% support that's more than 20
points ahead of Trump's average
favorability so again malaky and
speaking of polls Trump in that same
speech claimed that he was leading in
South Carolina by 50 points now in the
average of polls it's 30 points the best
ever poll his 35 points up but it's
still a big big lead and yet he just
makes up this completely fictional
number and it's well it is it is frankly
bizarre it's something that Trump seems
to do time and time again and why was he
doing it why was he feeling as so he had
to kind of puff himself up I feel as
though he was put in that mood because
of the way that Haley has been attacking
him undermining him saying that he's you
know basically he's losing his marbles
and she was up and I said wow she's
doing uh like a speech like she won
imagine somebody losing an election and
then acting as though they had won that
election that is just terrible isn't it
John where have you been for the last8
years this is what he does he's winning
every poll by a th000 points everyone's
who everyone loves him all his opponents
everyone hates them this is just what
Trump does you know having said that
it's probably you're probably making a
good point it's probably good that
you're doing this because we did learn
something very valuable in New Hampshire
I find in life you can't let people get
away with okay you can't you
just can't do that hey I don't make the
rules wherever you want Trump from his
lips to God's ears President Biden was
involved in a weird primary of his own
in New Hamshire this week because the
Democratic party wanted to strip the
granite state of their first in the
nation primary handing that to South
Carolina instead the Democrats Biden was
not technically on the ballot there were
Longshot rivals on that ballot Dean
Phillips Marian Williamson were both
there there was a campaign to have
voters write in Biden's name on the
ballots you have to go all the way down
the list of of declared candidates
ticket box and then right in Joe Biden
at the bottom of it there's a concern
that maybe there'd be not a lot of
people doing that and he could actually
lose this or it could be a close run
election and it could look on paper
really bad even though he was not
actively campaigning there as well as
not being on the ballot yeah in the end
though Biden did do well enough as the
results came in so desaster avoid it and
good to see verman Supreme is still
running in New Hampshire primaries as
well Joe Biden meanwhile certainly fired
the stus pistol on his presidential
campaign this week you're not kidding
about that one this is how he responded
to his primary Victory remarkably just
as you were coming to us his team in
Wilmington the campaign team put out a
statement it has nothing to do with his
successful wrin campaign in New
Hampshire uh his first win this cycle
instead it's just about Trump the the
campaign manager says tonight's results
confirm Donald Trump has all but locked
up the GOP nomination and the election
denying anti-freedom Maga movement has
completed its takeover of the Republican
party now messing around John rting the
general election campaign there Trump
probably should have done the same thing
to be honest yeah clearly Biden is
relishing the idea of a rematch against
Trump rightly or wrongly Hillary Clinton
Once Upon a Time was relishing taking on
Donald Trump in a presidential election
clearly from Biden's first campaign
event as well it was with VP Kamala
Harris he wants to Ed the issue of
abortion very much front and center in
this campaign didn't go entirely
smoothly though President Biden was
interrupted about a dozen times during
his speech by Pro Palestinian activists
who were in turn then answered by chance
from Biden supporters for four more
years but the whole thing was pretty
messy take a look Joel and I had a
chance to sit
down more more
I told you how proud We were of your
courage man of standing up and speaking
out on such a personal issue to help so
many
[Music]
[Applause]
women so as a kickoff event that is uh
both signals clearly the importance of
the abortion issue for Democrats in 2024
but also a reminder that when you're
outd doing traditional on the stump
campaigning for Joe Biden uh things can
get a little bit messy at times they can
but one thing you can't predict is as
you say the Democrats want this to be
about abortion Republicans want it to be
about immigration Democrats abortion and
you know that because they're already
running their general election
advertising like this I never thought
that I would need an abortion for a
planned pregnancy but I did two years
ago I became pregnant with a baby I
desperately wanted at a routine ultr
sound I learned that the fetus would
have a fatal condition and that there
was absolutely no no chance of survival
in Texas you are forced to carry that
pregnancy and that is because of Donald
Trump overturning roie Wade the choice
was completely taken away I was to
continue my pregnancy putting my life at
risk it's every woman's worst nightmare
and it was absolutely unbearable we need
leaders that will protect our rights and
not take them away and that's Joe Biden
and kamla Harris that lady by the way
Austin Denard her case went to court so
we know a lot about it uh there was no
serious suggestion that she was facing
death which is the reason why Texas
would not allow her to get an abortion
that's their abortion laws but what she
say is absolutely correct about her baby
there's no chance of it surviving and
that's what makes it such a incredibly
powerful ad and we will see many many
many more of them over the next 10
months John yeah just quickly um people
are now thinking well is this just going
to be a rerun of 2020 between Trump and
Biden it's a rematch for sure it's not a
rerun we got two historically old
candidates running for a second 4-year
term both as quasy incumbents the big
difference of course this time is it's
not a CO election at least we hope not
at this stage so it we will see a lot
more of these candidates whether we want
to or not the question is do voters like
Donald Trump the more they see him or
not there's some suggestion that they do
not uh and they're not crazy about Joe
Biden but the question about you know
whether Joe Biden is mentally up to the
job whether Donald Trump is mentally up
to the job whether these are also good
people or bad people these are the
questions that a lot of Voters will make
their choices based on as well as issues
such as the right to choose to have an
abortion or not but for more on the
state of the Republican race is it over
or not and this likely general election
rematch we're joined by Sam nunberg he
worked with Donald Trump before the 2016
election he supported Ronda STIs in this
campaign Sam welcome back to the fir
side chat thank you for having me so Sam
you saw Donald Trump this week was he
contented with an 11-point win in New
Hampshire was he really hoping maybe for
more like a 20-point win to knock Nikki
haly right out of this contest he wasn't
as happy as he was after Iowa for sure
Well you certainly you certainly took
the point I was going to make and and
last uh last week in after the Iowa
caucus he came out and he was
magnanimous and he uh and he said that
they that Nikki Haley and Ronda santis
ran very good races and it's time to
unite Nikki Haley smartly coming out
extremely early after the race was
called for Donald Trump she didn't wait
long she came out to give her speech and
she and she attacked Donald Trump and
was very negative and promised to go on
into South Carolina so what you saw were
the two uh different uh Donald Trumps
and those are really the two different
types of Donald Trumps that will decide
the general election or we'll have a
major factor in the general election if
it's not already baked for Joe Biden to
win Sam I think everyone agrees that
Nikki Haley is not going to be the
Republican nominee do you think it's a
good idea for her to keep on campaigning
do I think she's going to win South
Carolina no but it's also I believe
going to be a a smaller uh it's going to
be a tighter race than most people think
and and she'll want to continue on as
long as she can continue to make the
case that she's within Striking Distance
in the states and uh she wants to be
able to have the most uh delegates and
to say that she
ultimately uh no matter what would have
come in number two in the race in and
then would have the right to the
nomination in her view should Donald
Trump not be able to be the nominee Sam
there's no doubt that former president
Trump has performed strongly in these
first two caucuses and primaries but in
those exit polls it suggests anywhere
between a third and maybe as much as a
half of Republican voters would deem him
unfit to be president were he to be
convicted of one of these 91 indictments
that he's facing how big a concern is
that heading towards November do you
think it's funny because when you talk
to a lot of Democrats and and uh people
colleagues in the industry that I talk
to that have worked on presidential
campaigns that are not directly involved
with Joe Biden they all think Donald
Trump is the slight favorite when you
talk to people like me that don't work
for Donald Trump and that are in this
business on my side I would say Joe
Biden is a slight favorite they are both
two very very flawed candidates and um
that indictment is gives Joe Biden the
right not to have to run on his record
and not to have to be uh not to have to
quote unquote be the incumbent with a
certain segment of Voters or and make it
and he can continue to then make the
election a referendum on Donald Trump
now Nikki H's been doing more in the
last week to laund the Trump is old
attacks than the Democrats have done for
the last six months do you think that's
actually hurting Trump or does it just
not matter when he's running against Joe
Biden in the general election if age is
going if age is going to be an issue and
it's going to be the deciding issue to a
voter I can't imagine Donald Trump's
going to lose that argument Donald Trump
may be 78 but he doesn't look 78 Joe
Biden is 81 he looks like he's 120 years
old Donald Trump you know whatever
problems he has when if he makes some
mistakes or rhetorical flourishes when
he talks they're nothing like Jo Biden
and the Optics are when you see Joe
Biden um you know wandering around
issues like that so if age is the factor
um if age is going to be the deciding
factor uh I don't think that that's a
winning issue Sam you worked with Donald
Trump for years you know him well why do
you think he makes demonstrably false
statements such as he did numerous times
during that speech including the number
of times that he claimed to have won New
Hampshire in the general election is
that a sign as somewhat suggest of
cognitive decline is it as others would
suggest a sign that he is just a
pathological liar I I wouldn't say
Donald Trump is having cognitive uh I
don't I don't believe he has cognitive
decline I want to be clear about that I
think Joe Biden has a lot of cognitive
decline and that's Joe Biden's issue not
Donald Trump's uh Donald Trump is a
Salesman Donald Trump um believes in a
Donald Trump believes in what we call in
the legal profession puffery and uh he's
a marketer you could say he'll say his
response would be when his response will
be either I won the Primary in New
Hampshire twice or well I won the well I
should have won New Hampshire I don't I
don't think it was more that uh a flat
out lie I think it I think it maybe
maybe it was something along the lines
of he uh I I I didn't hear it by the way
but I but I don't think that it's
something where he's incog I want to be
clear Donald Trump is not in cognitive
decline that's Joe Biden's problem not
Donald Trump Sam yes but he did say it
and he said other things that are
patently untrue so my question is why
does he say these things I Donald Trump
is a is a master salesman he lives in an
alternate reality uh a reality of his
own making it's a reality that a lot of
people uh within the Republican party uh
agree with him on and live in it as well
um I did not I did not see that but I
I've seen it reported um but I and all I
would say is he's wrong he did not win
New Hampshire I don't want to be in the
business of of defending the fact that
he said he won New Hampshire and he
didn't win New Hampshire he lost it
twice in the general but he doesn't have
cognitive decline I'm G to be clear
that's Joe Biden's problem not Donald
Trump's finally Sam this is going to be
a long general election campaign like 10
months long at a time when the public
seems to be sick of both these guys so
who do you think that favors I think it
favors the candidate that is able to not
be seen in the public now much in other
words if Donald Trump is willing to stay
in the sidelines if Donald Trump is
willing to sit in Mar logo if Donald
Trump is willing to just keep posting on
true social and not X because nobody
reads truth social and people will just
be focused on Joe Biden that would give
the advantage to Donald Trump the
problem is is that he's kind of
incapable of doing that right um so I so
it it it does it does favor the
candidate that is least seen frankly
which is ironic Sam nunberg always good
to get your insights thank you for
having a fireside chat thank
you a successful record in foreign
affairs is no guarantee that an American
president will be elected for a second
term but failures can help to Doom their
hopes for four more years Jimmy Carter
presided over peace between Israel and
Egypt with the Camp David Accords in
1978 yet was brought down by inflation
in the Iran hostage crisis two years
later George Bush presided over the fall
of the Berlin War the end of the Cold
War the collapse of the Soviet Union
Operation Desert Storm ousted Iraqi
forces from Kuwait yet he too was undone
by a struggling economy in election year
and right now President Biden is hoping
that low unemployment easing inflation
and petrol prices strong growth figures
will start to be felt around more
American kitchen tables it's not showing
up right now and he also knows that his
handling of the conflicts in Ukraine and
Gaza
could help to seal his fate in November
if voters feel that he's not only unable
to make their lives better economically
but the world safer as well this week
there was perhaps a glimmer of hope that
a longer term ceasefire between the
Israelis and Hamas could be close at
hand one that could even create an
opening to establish a Palestinian state
which if it happened would certainly be
seen as a crowning achievement of Joe
Biden's long career Israel has given
Hamas a proposal through qari and
Egyptian mediators that would include up
to two months of a pause in fighting as
part of a multiphase deal that would see
all the remaining 136 hostages released
in exchange Israel would release a
pre-negotiated amount of Palestinian
prisoners and the redeployment of
Israeli Defense Forces so that some
would be moved out of main population
centers and would allow a gradual return
of Palestinian civilians to Gaza City
and the northern Gaza Strip but is sadly
so often the case CH those glimmers of
Hope will soon extinguish uh through
Egyptian intermediaries Hamas dismissed
the prospect of a two-month ceasefire in
return for the release of the hostages
uh and then from the Israeli side as
well there was a stiffening of rhetoric
so it didn't seem as though much
progress had been made on either front
yeah meanwhile America has been trying
the entire time to push for ceasefires
and to push in particular for a
two-state solution Biden is very fixated
on the two-state solution then Yahoo
just comes out and says no no it's
two-state solution sorry
and I think that would have been quite
frustrating to to America uh we
certainly saw in the last couple of
weeks them becoming increasingly public
in their desire for Israel to wrap the
war up I think expressing their
frustration we have been talking to them
intensely about a transition to low
intensity operations we believe it's the
right time for that transition uh and
we're talking to them about doing that
and I should say as well at the same
time Hamas have also said no to a
two-state solution and they've promised
to attack more as well so you can see
the frustration and mistrust building
between all parties at this point in
time John yeah indeed meanwhile the US
and British forces continue to conduct
more air strikes against the houti
militants in Yemen uh they've been
trying to uh block shipping through the
Red Sea and the sewers canal in recent
times with some success uh and these air
strikes well it's hard to gauge their
level of success at this stage but it
does still raise the prospect of a wider
regional conflict but for more
on this issue I spoke to Daniel curer
he's a former United States ambassador
to Egypt that was during the Clinton
Administration more recently he was US
ambassador to Israel in the Bush
Administration it was reported this week
that President Biden and prime minister
Netanyahu spoke for the first time in
over a month that surprised me did it
surprise you it was actually surprising
how often the president had spoken to
the Prime Minister before this uh every
few days after October 7th clearly the
president was trying to establish the
kind of uh relationship with Netanyahu
that would allow him to ask Netanyahu to
do hard things but as we understand it
the phone call before this week ended um
rather unhappily I think the president
was a bit upset that Netanyahu was U not
listening not paying attention and
certainly not responding to what the
president was asking you talk there
about Biden wanting is Isel to do hard
things what sort of things do you mean
well I think primary issue on the
president's mind involved the
humanitarian situation the civilian
casualties uh the president expressed
from the beginning uh great
understanding uh over Israel's right to
self-defense and the fact that it was
going to uh act militarily in a very
tough manner to try to debilitate uh and
maybe even decapitate Hamas but uh as
the the war unfolded after October 7th I
think the president became increasingly
concerned over the level of Civilian
casualties and uh the fact that U as the
bombing campaign continued humanitarian
distress uh increased uh exponentially
and I think that's what the president
was hoping that he could get some uh
responsiveness from Netanyahu Ambassador
Israel proposed a ceasefire for two
months this week with of all hostages in
that time but that soon devolved into
both sides calling for the destruction
of the other so where does that leave us
well the good news is that they're
actually engaging again there had been a
period of several weeks when there
seemed to be no uh engagement at all on
this question of hostages ceasefire
humanitarian paw and so forth so the
fact that they're exchanging what are uh
certainly uh uh positions that neither
side can accept in Toto uh is a good
thing uh now the hard work has to be
undertaken probably a combination of
cutter uh the United States Egypt maybe
some others trying to narrow the
positions uh Israel will obviously have
to compromise on the length of a
ceasefire and uh how quickly hostages
can be or will be returned and for what
price and Hamas is going to have to
compromise on the fact that it's going
to have to lay down arms and uh
basically uh uh stop fighting on its end
and engage on on the release of hostages
so there's hard things for both sides to
do but uh at least they're talking now
President Biden of course has been
raising the prospect of a two-state
solution coming out of this conflict
Netanyahu has basically said in no way
never will happen certainly not on his
watch is there any way in your view that
this leads to a resolution and the
creation of a Palestinian State well one
of the great ironies of this war is that
the horrific Massacre on October 7th May
and I underline the word may unlock a
process which has not been successful
until now to lead to a uh independent
Palestinian State living side by side
with Israel you know that effort had
been stalled for for many years uh in
large part because of uh lack of
leadership both in Palestine and in
Israel um and the uh unwillingness of
either side to to budge from very
Hardline positions uh but it's now back
on the agenda it doesn't suggest that we
can get there quickly it doesn't suggest
that it'll be easy but uh people are now
talking about it again I can tell you
from a personal standpoint uh for a
while I thought I was the only person in
Washington who would mention a two-state
solution and now it's on everybody's
mind and everybody's talking points so
uh I think we may be uh we may have an
opening uh to restart a process a very
long process that will go hand inand
with Gaza
reconstruction and Mara Rodman was
President Barack Obama's Deputy
assistant advisor for National Security
Affairs and she also worked for the
special Envoy for Middle East peace at
the state department so I asked her why
polls are suggesting the war is still
popular in Israel even now so I've
talked to a lot of different people from
across the political Spectrum in Israel
and um as a people right now they have a
national psychology of of having been
invaded I think further underscored by
just the brutal nature um and the very
personal nature of the kinds of uh
crimes that were committed including um
the rape of women and probably also of
of men so the the most direct kind of
violation and it is such a small country
that that is it is a national psychology
because almost everyone knows or is one
degree or is or is one degree removed
from um someone who is directly in the
path of this Terror and this Invasion
and so you really can't um underscore
enough just what that does to uh the
psyche of a country so that they are
deeply um they are deeply scared of just
what uh an organization like Hamas uh
that is literally walking distance um
from some Key Parts key communities
within Israel uh deeply scared of what
they're capable of and I think in some
cases it prevents it is it is preventing
or blinding them from seeing um both
what is happening to so many innocent
civilians in Gaza Palestinians in Gaza
you know obviously the vast bulk of the
population not associated with Hamas uh
and also um makes it harder for them to
see why so many of the rest of us in the
rest of the world and the rest of the
region are saying listen you need a
pathway to two states and a Palestinian
State alongside an Israeli state to
actually make you Israelis more secure
uh but that will take having the kind of
leader who believes in that and can help
them get there uh and that is not the
current leader that they have let me ask
you is there any other realistic
long-term alternative for the Middle
East other than a two-state solution in
your view and if so what could it be in
my view there's not obviously there are
people with other views um many of whom
right now are palines and Israelis uh
living in in the area so it's going to
take uh a lot of
work a lot of resources and a lot of
smarts uh from folks through throughout
the International Community to help
Israelis and Palestinians believe that
they will both be more secure both
peoples will be more secure with two
states side by side side by side that
there's a way of getting to that and I
say this because to me it's not about
negotiations starting tomorrow I don't
think either peoples are ready for it
and I think think frankly neither has
leaders um that are capable of it but
it's uh a matter of looking at how you
work to uh
figure out what both people's need to
feel more secure and how uh the
International Community can come
together with Israelis and Palestinians
to start uh showing that putting some
some positive marks on the on the ground
so to speak um to help get them there
and help to build up uh and support
those who would lead both peoples uh in
that direction uh but it it's not
instantaneous anous uh it's I think for
those of us on the outside who may feel
frustrated that it seems so obvious I
think we have to appreciate just how
different it is when you're uh living
their dayto day if you're a Palestinian
who isn't a big fan of the war and isn't
a big fan of Israel and isn't a big fan
of Hamas what can you possibly do in the
short term or the long term to improve
your life well first of all you've just
described many Palestinians I know no
love lost with Palestinian leadership or
with isra leadership and real real um
concerns about Hamas and and frankly the
Extremes in both peoples
uh what can they do that they can't
publicly speak out at this point um for
a variety of reasons I would say if
you're a Palestinian who doesn't like
fataa the the basis of the palestin
authority leadership you have a little
more ability to speak out publicly but
not a lot and with under heras control
you couldn't speak out at all in terms
of disagreement
uh so that on their own there's not a
lot they can do which is why I suggest
that uh those of us on the outside need
to find ways to create space to get some
winds on the ground to have the many
people who I know have those views
inside um be at a place where they can
see some hope moving forward and can
feel more comfortable than publicly
expressing as well where they are Mara
rman thank you so much for answering a
series of impossible questions no
problem thanks a lot
and that is all the time we have for
tonight's fireside chat Planet America
returns next Wednesday night 9:30 p.m.
on abct TV and we'll be back here by the
fir side next Friday at 8:00 p.m. on ABC
News as well both programs are up on ABC
I YouTube and Facebook and if that's
still not enough there's always the
planet extra podcast pep in all the
usual pod places
bye-bye
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