The #SecurityBrief: Army Chiefs/Defence Secs meet in Paris. The Jeddah Meeting & NATO Sec Gen in US.

Summary

The video delves into the geopolitical and military challenges surrounding the Ukraine conflict, including Russia's demands regarding NATO expansion and foreign forces in Ukraine. It explores the framework for potential European peacekeeping forces, covering scenarios such as Article 5 and UN peacekeeping operations. The discussion also highlights the evolving dynamics within traditional intelligence alliances like the Five Eyes, particularly with concerns over intelligence sharing, potential leaks, and shifts in strategic alliances. The complexities of international diplomacy, military strategy, and intelligence are emphasized throughout the analysis.

Takeaways

• 😀 Putin’s 2021 and 2022 demands on Ukraine focus on limiting military capabilities, preventing foreign forces, and addressing NATO expansion.
• 😀 The 2022 Istanbul Protocol outlined Putin’s demands regarding NATO, specifically its non-expansion and limitation of forces in Europe and Ukraine.
• 😀 Two potential scenarios are discussed for European forces in Ukraine: NATO’s Article 5 scenario (unlikely) and UN peacekeeping operations (Chapters 6 and 7).
• 😀 Article 5 would activate a collective defense mechanism, but it’s unlikely to apply to a NATO-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine due to the risk of escalation.
• 😀 UN peacekeeping operations, under Chapter 6, would be non-lethal, whereas Chapter 7 would allow for the use of force under UN Security Council authorization.
• 😀 The Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance (USA, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) is critical but may face challenges due to evolving geopolitical tensions.
• 😀 The Five Eyes alliance was originally formed in 1946 to counter Soviet aggression but is now facing potential fractures due to the ongoing Ukraine crisis.
• 😀 Intelligence sharing between the US and its Five Eyes partners is unbalanced, with the US providing much more intelligence than the other countries.
• 😀 The UK’s intelligence assets inside Russia and China are at risk of being compromised due to leaks, which could have significant implications for security.
• 😀 The relationship between traditional military alliances and intelligence-sharing agreements is under strain, raising questions about the future of these partnerships.

Q & A

What were some of the key demands from Russia to Ukraine as outlined in the 2021 draft proposal?

The key demands included capping Ukraine's army size, preventing foreign forces from entering Ukrainian territory, and restricting NATO expansion within Ukraine's borders.

What was the significance of the 2022 Istanbul Protocol in relation to NATO?

The Istanbul Protocol in 2022 emphasized Russia's demand for the non-expansion of NATO, especially preventing the deployment of NATO forces inside Ukraine and Europe, although countries like Sweden and Finland have already joined NATO by that time.

What are the potential frameworks for European forces' involvement in Ukraine?

The frameworks could include an Article 5 scenario, which is highly unlikely, where an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all. Alternatively, a UN peacekeeping operation could take place under Chapter 6 (non-lethal) or Chapter 7 (with the use of force).

What does Article 5 of NATO's treaty state?

Article 5 of NATO's treaty states that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all members, requiring collective defense. However, it is unlikely to apply in the case of European forces in Ukraine since it involves non-member countries.

What is the significance of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group?

The Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group, formed in 1946, consists of Australia, the UK, Canada, the US, and New Zealand. It was originally created to counter Russian aggression, but today, it faces challenges due to evolving geopolitical dynamics, including intelligence sharing with Russia and China.

What concerns were raised about the sharing of intelligence among Five Eyes members?

A major concern is that the U.S. is the largest gatherer of signals intelligence, sharing much more with other members than they share with the U.S. Additionally, UK intelligence, especially regarding sensitive regions like Russia and China, could be compromised by leaks.

How might intelligence leaks affect the relationship between Five Eyes members?

Intelligence leaks could compromise the security of human assets in sensitive regions like Russia or China, potentially damaging trust and complicating future intelligence-sharing within the Five Eyes group.

What did former Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull suggest about the Five Eyes intelligence dynamic?

Malcolm Turnbull highlighted that the U.S. is the largest intelligence gatherer in the Five Eyes group, and no country shares everything with the others. He expressed concerns that sensitive UK intelligence could be at risk due to potential leaks involving human assets in countries like Russia and China.

Why is it unlikely that NATO's Article 5 would be invoked in the case of European forces in Ukraine?

Article 5 would likely not be invoked because it applies to NATO members, and Ukraine is not a NATO member. Furthermore, any European forces deployed to Ukraine would not automatically trigger a collective defense scenario.

What role does the United Nations play in peacekeeping operations, and how does it differ from NATO's framework?

The UN can authorize peacekeeping operations under Chapter 6 (non-lethal) or Chapter 7 (with force), which is different from NATO's framework of collective defense under Article 5. The UN's peacekeeping operations are typically under the mandate of the Security Council, providing a broader international framework for intervention.