原重庆市长黄奇帆2022年就预言中国房地产由盛转衰，十个指标都达到拐点，只有脑子进水的人会相信政府房地产政策出来之后，房地产行业还是蒸蒸日上

先锋观察家

24 May 202409:44

Summary

TLDRThe transcript discusses the new phase of China's real estate market, marked by a population ceiling, urbanization nearing saturation, aging demographics, and a significant surplus of unsold housing. It highlights the oversupply, high property prices, and the need for developers to adapt to a new normal with lower demand and increased financial caution, moving away from past speculative behaviors.

Takeaways

🏗️ China's real estate market has entered a new phase with indicators showing a turning point, suggesting a significant shift in the market dynamics.
📉 The population of China is considered to have reached its peak at around 1.4 billion, with a decline expected, affecting the demand for housing.
🌆 Urbanization in China has reached approximately 65%, comparable to the 75% in Europe and the U.S., indicating limited room for further growth.
👵 Aging population in China is increasing, projected to reach over 30% by 2035, which could lead to a decrease in demand for housing as the elderly typically require less space.
🏢 There is a significant inventory of unsold housing, with 600 million square meters of new homes remaining unsold for over a year.
🏠 A substantial amount of housing, about 60 billion square meters, is vacant and not used for living, which could flood the market if released.
📈 The average housing space per person in China has reached 50 square meters, which is considered the ceiling for developed countries, indicating a saturation point.
🏗️ Construction volume has seen a dramatic increase, with a 16-fold rise from 2000 to 2017, reaching a level that may not be sustainable.
💰 Land and property prices have quadrupled over the past 20 years, creating a high barrier for new entrants and a potential bubble risk.
🔨 Infrastructure and urban development, including old city renovations and public facilities like schools and hospitals, have reached a saturation point with limited new demand.
💼 The real estate industry's high debt levels, with many developers having a debt ratio of over 90%, indicate a high risk and potential for financial instability.

Q & A

What is the current stage of China's real estate market according to the transcript?
-The transcript indicates that China's real estate market has entered a new phase where it has reached a turning point, with a significant shift in market indicators.
What is the population ceiling mentioned in the script, and what does it imply for the real estate market?
-The population ceiling mentioned is 1.4 billion people. It implies that the potential for growth in demand for housing may be limited as the population is not expected to increase significantly.
How does the urbanization rate in China compare to that of Europe and the United States, and what is its implication for housing demand?
-China's urbanization rate has reached 65%, which is almost equivalent to the 75% of Europe and the United States. This suggests that the potential for further urbanization-driven housing demand is limited, as most of the rural youth and middle-aged population has already been urbanized.
What is the impact of aging population on the housing market as described in the transcript?
-The aging population, with the percentage of elderly people expected to rise to 30% by 2035 and possibly 40-50% in the future, will likely reduce the demand for new housing, as older people generally need fewer houses and increased mortality rates will release houses back into the market.
What is the issue with the inventory of unsold houses in China, and how does it affect the real estate market?
-There is a significant inventory of unsold houses, amounting to 600 million square meters, which, if not absorbed by the market, could lead to a significant reduction in demand for new housing construction.
How much of the housing stock in China is vacant and what does this signify for the market?
-About 20% of the housing stock, or 60 billion square meters, is vacant and used for investment purposes. This high level of vacancy could indicate an oversupply in the market and a potential decrease in demand for new housing.
What is the current per capita housing area in China, and how does it compare to developed countries?
-The per capita housing area in China has reached 50 square meters, which is the same as the ceiling in developed countries like Europe and the United States. This suggests that there is limited room for further growth in housing demand.
What is the significance of the construction volume growth in China's real estate market over the past years?
-The construction volume has grown exponentially, with a 16-fold increase from 2000 to 2017, reaching a point where it equals half of the global construction volume. This indicates a potential oversupply and a ceiling in terms of construction capacity.
How have land and property prices in China changed over the past 20 years, and what does this trend imply for the market?
-Land and property prices have increased by 4 to 20 times over the past 20 years, depending on the location. This rapid increase has created a high leverage environment for real estate developers, which may not be sustainable in the long term.
What are the implications of the completed infrastructure and public facilities for the future demand in the real estate market?
-The completion of infrastructure and public facilities, such as schools and hospitals, suggests that there is limited future demand for expansion in these areas, which could affect the overall demand for housing.
What is the current debt situation of real estate developers in China, and how does it impact the market?
-The debt situation of real estate developers is high, with a debt ratio of around 90%. This high leverage could limit the ability of developers to take on further debt and may lead to a restructuring of the real estate market.

Outlines

00:00

🏗️ China's Real Estate Market Enters a New Phase

The speaker discusses the new phase of China's real estate market, highlighting several key indicators signaling a turning point. The population has reached a ceiling of 1.4 billion, and urbanization rates have plateaued at 65%, comparable to the 75% in Europe and the U.S. due to the extraction of the rural youth and middle-aged population. Aging is also a significant factor, with the elderly population expected to rise from 20% to over 30% by 2035, and potentially reaching 40-50% by 2050-2060, which will reduce the demand for housing. Additionally, there is a significant inventory of unsold housing and vacant properties, amounting to 6 billion square meters, which could lead to a significant decrease in demand for new housing if housing prices stabilize. The speaker also notes that the per capita housing area has reached the global ceiling of 50 square meters, and the construction volume has seen exponential growth, making it unsustainable to continue at the current pace.

05:01

📉 Analysis of China's Real Estate Market Challenges

This paragraph delves into the challenges faced by China's real estate market, emphasizing that the difficulties are not solely due to government policies but are a result of long-term market dynamics. The speaker refutes the idea that government intervention is the primary cause of the current hardships, arguing that the market has reached its limits in terms of demand and supply. The speaker points out that land and property prices have increased dramatically over the past 20 years, and the behavior of real estate developers, who have been accustomed to high leverage and rapid turnover, is no longer viable. The speaker also mentions that infrastructure, urban renewal, and public facilities such as schools and hospitals have reached saturation points, and the financial leverage of real estate companies has reached its peak, suggesting that a new normal for the real estate market and developers' operational strategies is emerging.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Housing Market

The housing market refers to the economic sector that involves the buying, selling, renting, and development of residential properties. In the video's context, it discusses the new phase of China's housing market, suggesting a turning point where previous growth patterns are no longer sustainable. The script mentions the housing market's response to government policies and developers' behavior, indicating a shift in the market dynamics.

💡Population Ceiling

A population ceiling is the maximum number of people that a given area can support sustainably. The script uses this term to highlight that China's population growth is nearing its limit, currently estimated at 1.4 billion, which is a significant factor affecting the demand for housing.

💡Urbanization Rate

The urbanization rate measures the proportion of the population living in urban areas. The video mentions that China's urbanization rate has reached 65%, which is comparable to the 75% in developed countries like the U.S. and Europe. This indicates a slowdown in the rate of urbanization, which in turn affects housing demand.

💡Aging Population

An aging population refers to a demographic trend where the median age of a population increases over time. The script points out that China's aging population is expected to rise to 30% by 2035 and even higher in the following decades, which could lead to a decrease in housing demand as older people require fewer new homes.

💡Housing Inventory

Housing inventory refers to the stock of homes available for sale that have not yet been sold. The script indicates a significant housing inventory in China, with 600 million square meters of unsold newly built homes, which could lead to a decrease in new construction demand if the market does not absorb this surplus.

💡Idle Housing

Idle housing describes properties that are vacant and not being used for their intended purpose, often due to investment purposes. The video mentions that 20% of purchased homes in China are idle, contributing to an oversupply in the market and potentially impacting future housing demand.

💡Per Capita Housing Space

Per capita housing space is the average living space available per person in a given area. The script states that China's per capita housing space has reached 50 square meters, which is considered the ceiling in developed countries. This suggests that there is limited room for growth in housing demand based on living space needs.

💡Construction Volume

Construction volume refers to the total amount of building activity in a given period. The video discusses how China's construction volume has significantly increased over the years, reaching a point where it accounts for nearly half of the global new housing construction, indicating a potential oversupply.

💡Land and Property Prices

Land and property prices are economic indicators that reflect the cost of acquiring land and real estate. The script mentions a fourfold increase in land and property prices over the past 20 years in China, which has influenced developers' behavior and the housing market's trajectory.

💡Renovation and Infrastructure

Renovation and infrastructure refer to the processes of upgrading and maintaining existing urban areas and public facilities. The video suggests that large-scale renovation and infrastructure development in China are nearing completion, which could reduce the demand for new housing construction.

💡Educational and Public Facilities

Educational and public facilities include schools, hospitals, and other public services. The script points out that the development of these facilities in China has reached a saturation point, as exemplified by the per capita land area for university students meeting the set standards, indicating a reduced need for further expansion and construction.

💡Debt Ratio

Debt ratio is the proportion of an entity's debt to its total assets or equity. In the context of the video, it highlights that Chinese real estate developers have a high debt ratio, nearing 90%, which suggests financial strain and potential risks in the industry, affecting the sustainability of their operations.

Highlights

The Chinese real estate market has entered a new phase with a turning point, indicating a significant change in the market's direction.

China's population is considered to be at its ceiling, with a current estimate of 1.4 billion people and a declining trend.

Urbanization rate in China has reached 65%, comparable to the 75% in Europe and the United States, with limited room for growth.

Aging population in China is expected to increase to over 30% by 2035, potentially reaching 40-50% by 2050-2060, affecting housing demand.

A significant inventory of unsold housing by developers amounts to 6 billion square meters, indicating a surplus in the market.

Approximately 20% of purchased housing by the public is idle and used for investment purposes, contributing to the housing surplus.

The total housing stock in China is around 400 billion square meters, with 60 billion square meters of it being vacant.

The expectation of housing price increases has led to a speculative bubble in the housing market.

Per capita housing space in China has reached 50 square meters, which is considered the ceiling for developed countries.

Annual housing investment in China has seen a significant increase, reaching a peak in recent years that may not be sustainable.

The construction volume of housing in China has grown exponentially, reaching a point where it equals half of the global construction.

Land and property prices in China have quadrupled over the past 20 years, setting a new standard for valuation.

Developers' behavior of hoarding properties and land due to the expectation of price appreciation is no longer viable.

Urban renewal and infrastructure development have reached a saturation point, with limited future demand.

Educational and public facilities, such as universities and hospitals, have reached their capacity and do not require further expansion.

The financial situation of real estate developers, with high debt ratios nearing 90%, indicates a ceiling in leverage capabilities.

The new phase of real estate development in China requires adjustments in the operational methods of developers to adapt to the changing market conditions.