Pasca Pelantikan, IHSG Ngegas Tapi Rupiah Terus Loyo

Summary

The discussion examines the recent fluctuations in the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IHSG) following a period of significant correction, now buoyed by President Prabowo's upcoming policies aimed at enhancing food security and agricultural productivity. Key indicators, such as a 7.2% increase in money supply and a new Ministry of State Revenue, are expected to positively influence the market. Despite these optimistic prospects, the rupiah struggles against external pressures, particularly from a strengthening US dollar. Predictions suggest a potential stabilization of the rupiah around 15,000 IDR per dollar by 2025, contingent on effective policy implementation and external economic conditions.

Takeaways

• 📈 The IHSG has experienced fluctuations but has rebounded after significant corrections, reflecting market resilience.
• 👨‍⚖️ The new government under Prabowo Subianto is implementing a 100-day action plan focused on key initiatives to boost the economy.
• 🍽️ Policies such as free nutritious meals and food security are expected to positively impact the consumer goods and agricultural sectors.
• 📊 Economic liquidity is healthy, with a reported growth of 7.2%, indicating a stable financial environment.
• 💳 Credit distribution remains strong at a growth rate of 10.4%, contributing to a generally positive economic outlook.
• 🤔 Investor psychology is mixed, with significant reactions following the cabinet's announcement, highlighting the importance of government stability.
• 🌾 Concerns persist about Indonesia's reliance on food imports despite its rich natural resources; the government aims to address this through increased agricultural funding.
• 💱 The performance of the Indonesian Rupiah is not directly correlated with the IHSG, influenced more by external factors like the strength of the US dollar.
• 🔮 Future stability of the Rupiah depends on the successful execution of government policies and external economic conditions, particularly decisions from the Federal Reserve.
• 💡 Overall, there is cautious optimism for foreign investment to return to Indonesia if the government's initiatives prove effective.

Q & A

What factors influenced the rise of the IHSG despite previous corrections?

The IHSG's rise can be attributed to significant gains in the previous week, along with the anticipation of Prabowo's 100-day work policy, which includes initiatives like providing nutritious food and food reserves.

What is the significance of Prabowo's 100-day work policy?

Prabowo's 100-day work policy is aimed at implementing various initiatives that are expected to positively impact multiple sectors, particularly consumer and agriculture sectors.

How is the liquidity in the Indonesian economy currently assessed?

The liquidity is assessed to be quite good, with the money supply growing by 7.2%, and credit distribution also showing a growth of 10.4%.

What changes occurred following the announcement of the new cabinet?

After the cabinet announcement, there was a brief period of euphoria in the market, which was followed by corrections as investors reacted to the new appointments.

How does the formation of a new Ministry of State Revenue affect Indonesia's budget?

The new Ministry of State Revenue is expected to identify new funding sources, which could enhance state revenue without increasing the burden on citizens, particularly as the budget for 2025 is set at over 3.6 trillion.

What challenges does Indonesia face regarding food imports?

Despite having abundant natural resources, Indonesia still imports essential commodities like beef, onions, and rice, due to a supply-demand imbalance.

What are the expected impacts of increased agricultural funding in the budget?

The increased budget for food security aims to improve agricultural productivity, enhance irrigation systems, and ultimately meet the high demand for food within the country.

Why is the Indonesian rupiah not moving in sync with the IHSG?

The rupiah's movement is more influenced by external factors, such as the rising US dollar index and attractive yields on US treasury bonds, leading to foreign investors pulling out of the domestic market.

What are the implications of foreign investor behavior on the rupiah?

If the 100-day work policies prove effective, it could lead to a resurgence of foreign investment in Indonesia, which would positively affect the rupiah.

Is it realistic for the rupiah to reach 15,000 against the US dollar soon?

Reaching 15,000 per dollar may be feasible by 2025, but for the current year, it's unlikely due to upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve on interest rates, which are crucial for currency stability.