Cómo China y Rusia cooperan para crear un nuevo orden mundial

Summary

El guion ofrece una visión de la relación estratégica entre China y Rusia y su impacto en la seguridad global. Se discute cómo la dependencia de China en la importación de energía, principalmente de Rusia, fortalece su alianza, y cómo ambos países han beneficiado mutuamente en términos militares. El guión también explora la posibilidad de un escenario bélico conjunto contra Estados Unidos y la preocupación de los planificadores de defensa estadounidenses ante una potencial cooperación militar entre China y Rusia. Además, se abordan las tensiones en las relaciones fronterizas entre China e India, y la posición de Rusia en la expansión de la OTAN y el conflicto en Ucrania. El análisis concluye con la importancia de la autonomía estratégica y la necesidad de preparación para posibles conflictos futuros, subrayando la creciente influencia de China y Rusia en la dinámica global.

Takeaways

• 📈 La dependencia de China en la importación de energía es alta, con el 70% de su energía dependiendo de importaciones, y Rusia puede ayudar significativamente en este aspecto.
• ⚖️ La relación entre China y Rusia se ha fortalecido debido a la ayuda militar y la percepción compartida de un enemigo común: los Estados Unidos.
• 🔄 Desde la década de 1990, la ayuda militar de Rusia ha permitido que las fuerzas armadas chinas se fortalezcan considerablemente.
• 🤝 La cooperación estratégica entre China y Rusia incluye la realización de patrullas conjuntas en el mar y en la air, que demuestran una integración creciente entre las dos naciones.
• 🛰️ La capacidad nuclear de China está en aumento, con predicciones de que aumentará significativamente su arsenal nuclear en las próximas décadas.
• 🚧 La frontera entre China y Rusia, después de la desintegración de la Unión Soviética, se ha establecido como una prioridad para mantener la paz entre los dos países.
• 💪 La ayuda de Rusia ha sido crucial para mantener la industria militar china, a pesar de las sanciones impuestas a China después de la masacre en Tiananmen.
• 🔄 La economía de Rusia, debido a las sanciones, se está diversificando hacia Asia-Pacífico, con China como su principal socio comercial.
• 🔄 La alianza entre China y Rusia podría representar un desafío para los intereses estadounidenses y la seguridad global.
• 🌎 La expansión de las alianzas de seguridad de EE. UU. es un tema de preocupación para Rusia y China, quienes buscan cooperar para contrarrestar la influencia estadounidense.
• ⏰ La guerra en Ucrania y la creciente presencia de China en el Asia-Pacífico representan desafíos para la planificación de defensa de los Estados Unidos y sus aliados.

Q & A

¿Cuál es la dependencia de China en la energía importada y cómo puede ayudar Rusia en este aspecto?

El 70% de la energía de China depende de la importación y Rusia puede ayudar de manera significativa en este aspecto, posiblemente aportando recursos energéticos y diversificando las fuentes de energía para China.

¿Cómo ha beneficiado la cooperación entre Rusia y China en términos militares?

La cooperación entre Rusia y China ha beneficiado enormemente a las fuerzas armadas chinas, especialmente después de la década de 1990, proporcionándoles tecnología y equipo militar avanzado.

¿Por qué la relación entre China y Rusia es considerada crucial por parte de los Estados Unidos?

La relación entre China y Rusia es vista como crucial porque ambos países pueden combinar sus planes de guerra para crear una fuerza muy eficaz en el objetivo de los Estados Unidos, lo que podría representar una amenaza considerable.

¿Qué factores podrían llevar a una situación en la que los Estados Unidos tenga que planificar para una guerra con China y Rusia trabajando juntas?

Un factor clave sería una maniobra militar grande de Rusia o un aumento de la tensión en Ucrania coincidiendo con un movimiento de China hacia Taiwán, lo que podría poner a los planificadores de defensa de EE. UU. en una difícil posición.

¿Cómo se describe la relación entre China y Rusia en términos de recursos naturales y tecnología?

Rusia tiene abundantes recursos naturales y necesita capital y tecnología, mientras que China es lo contrario; tiene tecnología y capital pero necesita recursos naturales, lo que hace que la alianza sea un 'matrimonio natural'.

¿Cómo ven los líderes chinos la expansión de la OTAN y la influencia de los Estados Unidos en la región?

Los líderes chinos ven la expansión de la OTAN y la influencia de los Estados Unidos como una amenaza y una forma de dominio, lo que los lleva a buscar aliados y tácticas para contrarrestar esa influencia.

¿Qué papel desempeña la sanción económica en la relación entre Rusia y China?

Las sanciones económicas impuestas a Rusia por Occidente han llevado a Rusia a diversificar su economía hacia Asia-Pacífico, donde China se ha convertido en un socio clave, proporcionando un mercado para los recursos y la tecnología que Rusia necesita.

¿Cómo podría la creciente alianza entre Rusia y China afectar a la India?

La creciente alianza entre Rusia y China podría tener consecuencias negativas para India, especialmente si Rusia decide apoyar abiertamente a China en cuestiones multilaterales, lo que podría desestabilizar la región y aumentar la tensión entre India y China.

¿Qué estrategia está considerando China en su relación con Rusia durante la guerra en Ucrania?

China está manteniendo una posición de no violar las sanciones impuestas y no proporcionar bienes militares que podrían ayudar significativamente al esfuerzo militar ruso, pero al mismo tiempo, apoya a Rusia económicamente, lo que les permite continuar la guerra.

¿Cómo podría la tecnología de misiles de crucero sigilosos afectar la estabilidad en la relación entre Rusia, China y los Estados Unidos?

La tecnología de misiles de crucero sigilosos podría acortar el tiempo de toma de decisiones en una crisis, aumentando el riesgo de una respuesta rápida y posiblemente un conflicto armado si se sospecha que el otro lado está a punto de发动攻击 (atacar).

¿Por qué los Estados Unidos deberían mantener abiertas las posibilidades de tener conversaciones de control de armas con China?

A medida que China se vuelva más confiable en su poder y capacidades nucleares, es posible que esté más dispuesta a tener conversaciones de control de armas, lo que podría ayudar a prevenir un posible brazo de armas y garantizar la estabilidad global.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Alianza estratégica entre China y Rusia

Se discute la relación estratégica entre China y Rusia, destacando la dependencia energética de China y cómo Rusia puede ser de ayuda. Se menciona que el 70% de la energía de China depende de importaciones y cómo la cooperación militar entre ambos países ha beneficiado a las fuerzas armadas chinas. Además, se explora la idea de que ambos países podrían unir sus planes de guerra para hacer frente a los Estados Unidos, y se cuestiona si es necesario planificar para un posible conflicto bélico.

05:00

🚀 Desarrollo militar y cooperación Sino-Rusa

Se aborda el crecimiento del ejército chino, que ha sido posible gracias a la importación de tecnología militar rusa desde la década de 1990. Se destaca la importancia de la relación entre Moscú y Pekín en la resolución de disputas territoriales y el enfoque en la cooperación mutua. Además, se menciona el papel de Rusia como proveedor de hardware militar después del colapso de la Unión Soviética y la ventaja que China ha obtenido con la adquisición de tecnología sofisticada.

10:28

🌍 Control de Ucrania y la visión de Putin

Se analiza la obsesión de Putin con el control de Ucrania y su percepción de que sin él, Rusia no sería una gran potencia. Se cuestiona por qué la dominación de una nación de 40 millones de personas es vital para la prosperidad y seguridad de Rusia en el siglo XXI, y se refleja en la creencia de Putin en la importancia de esta cuestión.

15:31

🔄 Redistribución de poder global y la ascensión de China

Se habla sobre la visión de China para convertirse en la principal potencia mundial para el bicentenario de la fundación del Estado Popular de China en 2049. Se discute cómo las tensiones con los Estados Unidos, la creciente presión sobre Taiwán y la formación de alianzas alrededor de China afectan la inseguridad de este país. Además, se explora la animosidad compartida hacia los Estados Unidos como el factor unificador entre China y Rusia.

20:32

🤝 Relaciones personales entre líderes y su influencia

Se destaca la importancia de las relaciones personales entre los líderes de Rusia y China, comparando sus experiencias y trayectorias similares. Se sugiere que estos vínculos personales son cruciales para la cooperación entre los dos países y se menciona la importancia.

Keywords

💡Energía de China

El término 'energía de China' se refiere a la dependencia de China en las importaciones para su consumo energético. En el video, se menciona que el 70% de la energía de China depende de las importaciones, lo que indica la importancia estratégica de la cooperación energética para el país.

💡Cooperación militar

Este concepto se relaciona con el beneficio que la fuerza armada de China ha obtenido a través de la importación de tecnología y hardware militar de Rusia. El script destaca cómo la cooperación militar ha fortalecido a las fuerzas armadas chinas.

💡Alianza entre China y Rusia

La alianza entre China y Rusia es un tema central en el video. Se discute cómo ambos países ven un valor estratégico en su asociación para contrarrestar la influencia de los Estados Unidos, y cómo esta relación se basa en intereses compartidos y en la percepción de una presión común de parte de Occidente.

💡Planificación militar conjunta

Este concepto se refiere a la posibilidad de que China y Rusia puedan estar coordinando sus estrategias militares para hacer frente a los Estados Unidos. El video sugiere que la planificación militar conjunta podría representar una amenaza significativa para los intereses estadounidenses.

💡Escalada en Ucrania

La 'escalada en Ucrania' es un evento mencionado en el video como un posible escenario que podría poner a los planificadores de defensa de los Estados Unidos en una situación difícil, especialmente si coincide con movimientos por parte de China en el Estrecho de Taiwán.

💡Control de Putin sobre Ucrania

El deseo de Putin de controlar Ucrania se destaca como una obsesión que influye en la política exterior de Rusia. El video sugiere que para Putin, el control sobre Ucrania es esencial para mantener el estatus de una gran potencia y un imperio.

💡Superpotencia global de China

El término 'superpotencia global de China' alude a los objetivos de China de convertirse en el número uno a nivel mundial, como se menciona en relación con el centenario de la fundación de la República Popular China en 2049. El video discute cómo China busca un redistribution de poder global.

💡Tarifas y presiones de Trump

Las 'tarifas y presiones de Trump' se refieren a las acciones comerciales y políticas implementadas por el entonces presidente de los Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, que pusieron presión sobre China en una variedad de cuestiones, incluida Taiwán, y que generaron ingresos significativos a través de tarifas.

💡Alianzas de los Estados Unidos

Este concepto describe cómo los Estados Unidos han formado alianzas en la región del Pacífico Asiático, en particular la Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Díade Cuádruple) con India, Japón y Australia, para equilibrar la influencia de China.

💡Desafío de India con China

El 'desafío de India con China' hace referencia a la tensión y el conflicto en las relaciones entre India y China, especialmente en relación con los incisos en la frontera y la percepción de China como una amenaza existencial para India.

💡Armas nucleares y planificación

Este concepto abarca la discusión sobre el crecimiento de los arsenales nucleares de China y la posibilidad de una planificación nuclear compartida entre Rusia y China, lo que podría representar una amenaza a los intereses occidentales y cambiar la dinámica de la estabilidad nuclear global.

Highlights

70% of China's energy depends on imports, and Russia can significantly help in this area.

China's military has greatly benefited from Russian military imports since the 1990s.

Transcripts

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the

this is just a natural match made in

heaven 70% of China energy depends on

import and CH Russian can really help in

a big way on those import China's

military has benefited tremendously from

U Russian military

input cin ping really views Vladimir

Putin as a crucial partner in weakening

the United States Russia is a very

useful and important asset and partner

in this long-term struggle it's

increasingly the emperor and the SAR

both China and Russian

felt a lot of similar sentiment that

been they have been forced by the US uh

to stick

together China and Russia could combine

their War plans and create an extremely

effective Force for targeting United

States the question is whether we have

to plan in the event that we had a war

with China that China and Russia would

be working

together the realities of conventional

War I mean it's not something of the

past it can still happen that is

something we need to be preparing for

now imagine that Russia does a large

exercise or escalates in Ukraine at the

time where China wants to make a move on

Taiwan I think that what puts a lot of

us defense planners into a tough spot

the whole mankind is at the Crossroad

World Peace will be will be ENT

you know going back to the Stone Age and

and you know the very very

dangerous

la

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in recent years we have also done some

uh what we call the join the patrol be

it in the air and oil be at the sea so

this kind of joint of Patrol uh are not

exercises they're just kind of joint

operations

Chinese military has benefited

tremendously from U Russian military

import ever since the

1990s so today Chinese military is uh

growing with strength

but uh without Russia's assistance yeah

for decades and our own efforts probably

the Chinese military would not be as

strong as it is

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today

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in the 80s when pragmatic leadership

arrived uh in Moscow and Beijing they

decided that sorting out this

territorial dispute not investing a lot

of resources and money into this

potential confrontation between two

nuclear Powers but focusing elsewhere is

worth it and that's where they found

foundation for the relationship was

built

Alexander after collapse of the Soviet

Union Russia emerged as the major

provider of military hardware to China

China was under sanctions following the

10 and Men massacre in 89 and Russia was

the only source of sophisticated

military technology and China obviously

used that to its advantage to buy a lot

of stuff and by the way keep the Russian

military industry

afloat

in 2006 the Border was finally

demarcated and since that time

maintaining peace along this more than

4,000 kilm border is Paramount for both

beijin and

Moscow

Russia this is just a natural match made

in heaven Russia has abandons of Natural

Resources needs capital in technology

China is the exact

opposite China is one of the secrets for

longevity and survival of the system

that Vladimir Putin used to build

ch

Alania

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for

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for

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for

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for

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Putin uh is obsessed over control of

Ukraine he believes that without control

over Ukraine Russia is not a great power

it's not an Empire uh and I think that

this proposition has never been tested

in the Russian domestic discourse like

why dominating this 40 million nation is

vital for Russia's prosperity and

Security in the 21st century but that's

what Mr Putin

believes

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this

the of

History

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taian

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Tai

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the Optics is very much the Centennial

of creation of the People's Republic of

China that will be in

2049 and by the time the party strives

to turn China into number one Global

power and ending 500 centuries of global

dominance of the collective vest so

Global power redistribution and of China

as number one Global

superpower Donal Trump

joid

we're getting billions of dollars a year

from

tariffs

was

us is putting a lot of pressures on

China on Taiwan and and many other

issues so you can see that also us

formed so many uh Alli surrounding

China

so so all those things make China

insecure as well and I think Russian

probably feel feel the same and I think

in that sense they have some common uh

feelings because they they all feel this

uh Western pressure led by the us both

China and Russian

felt a lot of similar sment that been

they have been forced by the US uh to

stick

together

shared animosity towards the US is very

much the glue that brings the two men

together it's increasingly the emperor

and the SAR and since it's far less an

organized institutionalized autocracy

but a just more personalized regime

definitely relationship between the two

men is of Paramount importance cgp and

Putin are age mates uh Putin is just

six-month Elder they are in a way

soulmates there are so many similar

traits they have hardships in their

youth both fathers fought in World War

II against the Germans and the Japanese

they both have daughters so there is a

lot in common that brings them together

and I've seen them in person I think

once and you see from the body language

that the report is really

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there

for

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Fore

based on what I know they danc around

the topics and China's primary concern

was nothing happens before the end of

the Olympics and what they were

anticipating was just a very limited

scope military operation maybe uh

focused on eastern Ukraine not an allout

assault on

Ukraine

Russia doesn't really have alternative

economic Partners amid Western sanctions

Russia is the most sanctioned Nation on

Earth so Russia is rapidly diversifying

its economy towards Asia Pacific and

that's where China is definitely the

major partner that provides market for

the Russian resources technology that

Russia relies on including military

technology and dual use

Goods

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I think that the structural factor is

the most important and if we can imagine

different leaders presiding over pretty

similar power structures with

non-democratic us skeptical regimes we

might end up in the same result

the Russian view is that the US wants to

bring down Russia first and then add

rest China that's something what the

conspiratorial minded Russian leadership

believes uh it might not be true but

that's unfortunately what drives a lot

of their calculations also including war

in Ukraine they are concerned in very

physical sense about expansion of US

security alliances and where they seek

to work together to undermine this us

dominance in the

system

we see China dominating at the Human

Rights Council and inserting some of C

jinping's phrases about community of

shared future into

documents

Bon German Marshall Fund in

Washington convincing countri

that human rights should be underpinned

by um economic uh definitions uh not

necessarily the kind of freedoms that we

think about in the

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West

and Russia have uh voted together now to

not impose more sanctions uh on North

Korea they don't uh want to continue to

implement uh these sanctions so they see

North Korea as continuing partner of uh

Russia and

China this would protect themselves

because they could control the further

control the amount of information coming

into their socities um and uh try to

gain advantages in the ways that cyber

could even be used uh in

Wartime

as

war in Ukraine it's a mixed bank for

China on one hand it's really keeps the

US distracted a lot of resources are

being spent on European security the

flip side is that the global economy

gets more destabilized then also China

sees certain alienation of Europe from

China and then when people say we should

focus more on potential nightmar

scenario in the Taiwan Strait because of

what happened in Ukraine and we need to

start to dur risk diversify way frore

offshore uh so all of that discussion is

Amplified by Russia's war in

Ukraine

China would not give Russia an article 5

type of guarantee because it would

ultimately need to be involved in war in

Ukraine which it doesn't want to if

China uh provided military assistance to

Russia then we probably were going to

have a uh really the dawn of the third

world war with China Russia standing on

one side and uh NATO that by us on the

other side this is the worst the

nightmare so so

China's nonp participants yeah in this

kind of war is is out of its own

interest of course but it is also has

demonstrated huge huge responsibilities

for the

world

I think that the way that c came to

Moscow showing his unequivocal support

basically not saying that he approves of

the war against Ukraine but saying that

the first state visit is to Russia he

comes extra to see his friend in the Kum

spend nearly 3 days with him that's a

big show of

support both countries are religious

about strategic autonomy but they can

integrate their militaries and

military-industrial complexes without

giv this formal commitments and that

will make it far more

dangerous

there had been some rumors that we were

under counting the number of nuclear

launchers in China

we had seen some construction of a

limited number of silos at a um concepts

of operation site um at a place called

ganai a silo is effectively a large

reinforced hole in the ground that you

can um launch a missile out of and so we

decided we're going to go basically look

for to see if they had built up

significant numbers of those

um patterns of silos and we finally came

across the ones um near a place called

um where they're building about 120

solid fuel missile

silos you had these inflatable covers

all of them were spaced 3 km apart and

we saw um trenches for communications

wiring to cut and cover underground

command

buers well China's Arsenal uh has been

for a very long time uh relatively small

but it is growing and by 20 uh 30 I

think the prediction is that they will

have about 1,000 warheads and by the

middle of the

2030s uh as many

as500 so uh China is is clearly on a

trajectory of uh doubling and then

tripling its nuclear

Arsenal

or most of China's existing ICBM that

are currently deployed um are on mobile

trucks they drive trucks around they

have tunnels and the idea is that um it

makes it harder for the US to Target

them because they're always moving the

problem with that is that it's a really

really expensive and complicated Force

to operate

no

it's just a much more responsive Force

you have when you're it's already in The

Silo if you are on alert most of the

time you have a near instantaneous

launch

position we should not

underestimate the degree to which Russia

and China will work together for example

um uh developing uh shared uh nuclear

planning I think that's an area that

would be extremely detrimental to

Western interests their combined forces

are going to outnumber us current forces

um if the current trajectory

holds and so the fear I would say is

that you know the fear has been that

China and Russia could combine their War

plans and create an extremely effective

Force for targeting the United

States

the question is whether we have to plan

in the event that we had a war with

China that China and Russia would be

working together um and I think that in

our nuclear planning in the past that

has not been the Assumption and of

course if you combine those two arsenals

then we would be facing a massive

threat in a situation which there is a

crisis or limited war with China um

making sure that there are still deterr

Assets in place to make sure that Russia

doesn't um do something in Europe or

vice versa if there's a limited war with

Russia making sure that China doesn't

see the opportunity to DET take Taiwan

that's the problem that we have right

now when you have these new technologies

like stealth cruise

missiles you're getting into territory

in which it's possible that you could

destroy almost the entirety of the

opponent's missile forces very

quickly and when you're in that

situation the solution is effectively

that you need to be the first mover

right so that's what I worry about

situation which both for example Russia

and the United States have stealth

cruise missiles or both Russia and and

China and the United States have stealth

cruise

missiles

the room for decision making is very

very short the window for decision here

is extremely small and that's what I

worry about and that's the stabilizing

right because you have a situation in

which now any amount of hesitation on

one side would result in um possibly

unaccept

the United States first called for

trilateral uh Arms Control discussions

in the Trump administration of course

the Chinese were not interested and I

think it is unlikely that the Chinese

are going to agree to that today today

uh but going forward as China becomes

more confident in its power and

particularly in its nuclear capabilities

I think we should hold open the

possibility that we can have arms

control talks with China it may be

bilaterally it may be trilaterally but

this is not something that we should

rule

out

I don't think that we're currently in

that big of an arms race I think it's

possibly we might enter one sometime

soon but again that depends I think

largely in part on a how bad the Russ

situation gets and two

how China views its forces and how they

want to talk about it cuz if China

doesn't want to talk about it then that

limits a lot of what we can do I'm

hopeful that China will'll talk about it

um but we'll

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see

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EST

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e 60 years of Border architecture went

up in Flames overnight uh since then

there has been significant uh troop

build up by both sides um and this is a

live

problem when uh prime minister modi's

government first came into power they

really tried hard to reach out to

China we often heard of the China model

of development being touted in India um

really a hope of uh forging good ties

and relationships with with China um

however that was spurned from the

Chinese side when we almost

simultaneously with these meetings

started seeing more incursions on the

India China

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border

in Sri

Lanka in

Bangladesh all they see is now patterns

of um intimidation and an aggression

followed by China with most of its close

neighbors where Japan of course with the

case of Taiwan in South China Sea and

now on the Himalayan

border what kind of international actor

would China be as it rises um and the

answer unfortunately is quite um is is

is a difficult one it's a scary one you

have seen now the conversation in India

change completely within the political

Spectrum there is no single political

party that sees China as a friend China

is seen as the most consequential

foreign policy issue an existential

threat to

India the Indi Russia relationship I

like to say is one deeply rooted in

Nostalgia um Russia previously the

Soviet played a very important role in

the history of Independent India India

as it was building its institutions

including the Indian military so for

example my parents generation have a

very uh romanticized view of the

country

it is definitely moving into the

direction of Moscow being Junior partner

to Beijing and that really is a

difficult scenario for India given that

China is the most important threat India

faces right now La

India

Shai I've even spoken to certain folks

in New Delhi who mentioned that they

were surprised by Russia's Behavior

they've been surprised at how openly

Russia has been batting for Chinese

positions in these multilateral formats

where in the past Russia would often

hedge with India they would use India

they brought India into SEO to balance

China the reality

of conventional War I mean it's not

something of the past it can still

happen it happened in Europe it can

happen in in parts of the Indo Pacific

and I think that is something Taiwan

contingencies what happens next on the

amalian border that is something we need

to be preparing for now rather than

waiting for it to happen or hoping that

it wouldn't that Russia could

potentially play a spoiler role in the

case of um when the India China conflict

On the Border heats up even if it

doesn't play spoiler it plays neutral it

can still have you know tilt the scales

in China's favor um and those are really

dire

consequences possibility of a Pakistan

Russia China access for India is really

the nightmare scenario given its

geographical location given its history

with at least two of these actors given

its dependence on Russian uh weapons and

arms and Military

technology as Russia China alignment

grows closer and stronger there will

certainly be tensions and fraying in

India Russia

ties the real push in Delhi right now is

to make sure somehow slow down this

growing alignment between Russia and

China and to see where India can still

play a role in keeping Moscow separate

and keeping them engaged and slowing

down this what through the rest of us

seems inevitable

process

prime minister modi's visit to

Washington DC resulted in some takeaways

for India which are often only given to

us allies India is not one but it is

still has still developed a very very

close partnership with the United States

with Japan with Australia in the

quad I think the Indian vision is still

very much

multipolarity um the idea would be to

have several poles in the world uh which

is another reason why it continues to

work with Russia and hopes that it isn't

isolated continues to deal with China in

certain formats as well um but I think

the the ideal vision of multipolarity

when confronted with the realities of

the world has meant that India has had

to change track I think currently all of

India's foreign policy choices its

vision from the world is seen through

the lens of the China problem um all the

Partnerships that India has all

relationships that India has is

refracted through the China lens who can

help balance China who can help compete

with China who can help provide

alternatives to

China

for

China wants to be more as a guaran as a

helper as a

imediator uh as some kind of a you know

uh convenor I mean anything that China

is needed China will be willing do and

China wants to see the War ending and

China's president is talking to

president zalanski has talked to

President

Putin Putin actually uh is not the first

Russian president who won go against

NATO expansion actually this k

from a Soviet leader like mik gach down

to borison and then to Putin so Putin's

difference from uh his predecessor is

that he not only give warning but he

also carried it into

action

China well China certainly doesn't favor

any NATO expansion if Ukraine stays out

of the NATO probably things could be

easier to reach a peace peaceful

process

China does at least three things it

keeps the Russian economy going by

purchasing Russian hydrocarbons and

other Commodities by providing Russia uh

access to

R&B China keeps Russian industry going

including military industry the red line

for the Chinese communicated by the

Americans is not violation for of

sanctions in a very avert way and no

supply of kinetic military goods that

would dramatically help the Russian

military effort I think that for the

time being China Kips these two red

lines and respects them but I think that

everything outside of the scope is red

lights is really helpful for Russia to

continue this lengthy and tragic war of

attrition

I believe the best outcome

is Ukraine will lose some new

territories in addition to

Crimea uh so where are these new

territories it is somewhere within the

provinces that are already declared by

Russia to be Russian

territories

uh then the worst outcome is uh uh

President Putin decided to use a

tactical nuclear weapon and the whole

mankind is at the Cross Road War peace

we we may end up you know going back to

the Stone Age and and you know the

whever

dangerous

it feels pretty confident that time is

on his side that things don't go well in

the front lines but they don't go

utterly miserably for him and then at

some point the Western will to support

Ukraine might be broken we might have

Donald Trump back we might have a

different president in France we might

have a different Chancellor in Germany

and that's where ukrainians start to

fight internally and that's ultimately

he doesn't get control over Ukraine but

he keeps what's left of Ukraine broken

dysfunctional miserable depopulated and

that's a good enough outcome that's his

b right now there is a war yeah uh uh in

Europe which will last for many years

nobody knows how many years but this is

the only conclusion we know that it was

simply lost so for for for many years uh

NATO will simply be buen down in Europe

imagine that uh Russia does a large

exercise or escalates in Ukraine at the

time where China wants to make a move on

Taiwan I think that what puts a lot of

us defense planners into a tough spot

because you obviously need to allocate

resources to address the challenge in

the West in in in

Europe

for concerned about potential

instability in in Russia is going to be

there going forward and Beijing will be

watching this

closely cing really views Vladimir Putin

as a as a crucial partner in weakening

the United States it is my view that it

is no longer possible to drive a wedge

between Russia and China if it was ever

possible the view in Beijing is that

China is in the spirit of prolonged

confrontation with the United States and

nothing short of full surrender will

deliver fundamental Improvement in us

China ties so China thinks about its

relationship with Russia in a way in

counterfactuals so what if we throw

Vladimir Putin under the bus criticize

his unlawful invasion of Ukraine uh

introduce sanction of our own demand

that he Vates all of the Ukrainian

territory including in Crimea then

probably Putin's regime is doomed at

some point and it collapses and then

there is a new government that wants to

be friends with the West so the West

will just pocket this concession and say

thank you China good Boe now what about

Shan what about Taiwan what about yourp

theft what about your technological

programs that really challenge the US

dominance in those fields what about

your military buildup so China will lose

a very valuable partner and instead get

even more problems with the United

States

for