Paul Gilding: The Earth is full

Summary

The speaker addresses the critical issue of overconsumption and its unsustainable impact on our planet. They argue that the Earth's resources are being depleted at an alarming rate, with our current economic model requiring 1.5 Earths to sustain it. This overshoot is likened to continually spending more than one earns, leading to an inevitable economic collapse due to resource scarcity. Despite technological advancements, the speaker asserts that infinite growth on a finite planet is a fallacy. They challenge the audience to confront the reality that business as usual is no longer viable and call for a profound shift in our approach to economics and resource management. The speaker also emphasizes the need for collective action, as the crisis is a global one that requires a unified response. They conclude by urging the audience to embrace the challenge, suggesting that while the situation is dire, it also presents an opportunity for humanity to innovate and create a more sustainable and equitable future.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The Earth's capacity is exceeded: We are using more resources than the planet can sustainably provide, leading to an unsustainable economy.
• 📈 Economic growth at the expense of the environment: Our current economic model is outgrowing the Earth's ability to support it, requiring 1.5 Earths to maintain our current consumption levels.
• 🚫 Unsustainable by nature's rules: The laws of physics dictate that what is unsustainable must eventually stop, and we are reaching that point.
• 🔥 Growth vs. resource limitation: The pursuit of infinite economic growth on a finite planet is a flawed concept that will inevitably lead to a halt.
• 🚀 Technological optimism is not enough: While technology and innovation can address some issues, the scale of our economic growth plans outpace even our ability to innovate sustainably.
• 💰 Growth for the sake of growth: The societal belief in constant economic growth is questioned, as growth itself becomes the problem rather than the solution.
• 🌿 Environmental limits are non-negotiable: Basic elements like food, water, and climate are not abstract but are the very foundations of our existence and economy.
• 😟 Inaction despite warnings: Despite scientific warnings and economic analyses, we have largely failed to take significant action towards sustainability.
• 🌵 Resource depletion and its consequences: The anticipated collapse of industries like oil and coal, along with escalating resource scarcity, will have severe economic and social impacts.
• 🤔 Fear as a motivator: Fear of the impending crisis can either paralyze or motivate us to action, and it's crucial to harness this fear to drive change.
• 🛠️ Transformation is possible: With the right mindset and societal will, we have the technology and resources to transition to a sustainable economy.

Q & A

What is the central theme of the transcript?

The central theme is the unsustainable nature of our current economic growth and its impact on the Earth's limited resources, leading to an inevitable crisis.

According to the speaker, what is the comparison made between our economy and the Earth's capacity?

The speaker compares our economy to the Earth's capacity by stating that we need about 1.5 Earths to sustain our current economy, which means we are using 50 percent more resources than are available.

What does the speaker suggest is the consequence of living beyond our means as a global society?

The speaker suggests that living beyond our means leads to an unsustainable economy, which will eventually stop growing due to the depletion of natural resources and the Earth's capacity to support our demands.

What is the 'One Degree War Plan' mentioned in the transcript?

The 'One Degree War Plan' is a plan developed by the speaker and professor Jorgen Randers to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy within 20 years using proven technology and at an affordable cost.

How does the speaker describe the current state of our economic growth in relation to the finite nature of the planet?

The speaker describes our economic growth as based on a 'crazy idea' of infinite growth on a finite planet, which is an unsustainable approach that will inevitably lead to a halt in economic growth.

What does the speaker believe is the role of fear in motivating action towards sustainability?

The speaker believes that fear, when acknowledged and felt, can be a powerful motivator for action. It can help us to face the threat of an unsustainable future and drive us towards making the necessary changes.

What historical example does the speaker use to illustrate how crisis can lead to rapid change?

The speaker uses the example of the United States after the bombing of Pearl Harbor, where the government quickly banned civilian car production, redirected the auto industry, and implemented food and energy rationing.

What does the speaker suggest is the primary barrier to transitioning to a sustainable economy?

The primary barrier, according to the speaker, is not technical or economic but rather a change in our thinking and feelings, which involves accepting the fear of the current situation and acting upon it.

How does the speaker propose we can transform our economy to be more sustainable?

The speaker proposes that we can transform our economy using proven technology, at an affordable cost, and with existing political structures. The key is a change in mindset and a collective effort from every individual.

What does the speaker mean when they say 'the emperor has no clothes'?

The phrase 'the emperor has no clothes' is used to indicate that the speaker believes the idea of infinite growth on a finite planet is as ridiculous as the emperor in the fable who supposedly wore invisible clothes, revealing the stark reality that the idea is unsustainable and unrealistic.

What is the speaker's view on the potential future if we continue on our current path?

The speaker views the potential future as one of crisis and breakdown if we continue on our current path. However, they also express optimism that with the right response to fear and a collective effort, we can navigate through this crisis and build a stronger, happier, and more sustainable society.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 The Earth's Overcapacity Dilemma

The speaker starts by emphasizing that the Earth is full, filled with human presence, our possessions, waste, and demands. Despite our creativity, we've overproduced, leading to an economy larger than the planet can sustain. The Global Footprint Network's analysis indicates that we require 1.5 Earths to maintain our current economic pace, which is unsustainable. This is not a philosophical but a scientific reality, rooted in physics, chemistry, and biology. The speaker argues that our approach is unsustainable, and due to the laws of physics, unsustainable systems eventually cease to function. The reliance on growth is questioned, as it's based on the flawed concept of infinite growth on a finite planet. The speaker challenges the audience to face the reality that the Earth is indeed full and that our current trajectory is unsustainable.

05:00

😟 The Illusion of Gradual Growth

The speaker dispels the notion that we can smoothly transition to a highly-efficient, solar-powered, knowledge-based economy without significant disruptions. Despite the potential to feed, clothe, and house everyone decently, the idea of a gentle growth trajectory is deemed incorrect and dangerous, as it lulls us into a false sense of security. The reality is that we have not taken significant steps to change course, evidenced by record high global emissions. The speaker asserts that we are already experiencing the early stages of system breakdown, manifesting in various societal issues like debt crises, inequality, and political influence by money. The central issue is the end of growth, which we need to prepare for. The speaker calls for an end to denial and a recognition of our inaction in the face of an inevitable crisis.

10:01

😨 Imagining the Future and the Role of Fear

The speaker prompts the audience to envision a future where the global economy collapses due to environmental and societal pressures. This includes the potential for wars over resources, economic instability, and widespread unemployment. The speaker suggests that fear is a natural response to such a future, but it should not paralyze us. Instead, we should use this fear as motivation to act. The speaker argues that humans are capable of extraordinary actions when faced with crises, citing examples from history such as wartime mobilization and individual responses to personal threats. The 'One Degree War Plan' is mentioned as a feasible strategy to eliminate net CO2 emissions within 20 years, using proven technology and existing structures. The key, according to the speaker, is a change in mindset and emotional response to the crisis.

15:02

🌟 Choosing a Sustainable and Meaningful Future

The speaker concludes by asserting that we have the potential to build a society where nine billion people can lead fulfilling lives without exceeding the Earth's capacity. The current crisis should be viewed as an opportunity for societal evolution, prompting us to ask profound questions about our goals and aspirations as a civilization. The speaker calls for maturity, wisdom, and collective action from all sectors of society, including entrepreneurs, artists, scientists, and ordinary individuals. The message is one of hope and empowerment, suggesting that we are capable of overcoming the challenges ahead and building a stronger, happier society. The speaker ends with a call to action, encouraging the audience to be part of a positive transformation for future generations.

Keywords

💡Sustainability

Sustainability refers to the ability of a system or process to be maintained without causing negative environmental impact, depletion of resources, or long-term damage. In the video, the concept is central as it discusses the Earth's limits and humanity's current unsustainable practices, such as overconsumption and excessive waste production, which are outstripping the planet's capacity to regenerate.

💡Global Footprint Network

The Global Footprint Network is an international non-profit organization that researches resource consumption and advocates for sustainable use of natural resources. In the script, it is mentioned as the source of the calculation that we need 1.5 Earths to sustain our current economy, emphasizing the extent of our overuse of resources.

💡Economic Growth

Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. The video challenges the conventional belief in perpetual economic growth, highlighting that it is unsustainable on a finite planet with limited resources. The speaker argues that the pursuit of infinite growth is 'crazy' and that we must transition to a different economic model.

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures, precipitation, and other atmospheric conditions, primarily due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels. The video discusses climate change as a critical consequence of our unsustainable economic practices, including the highest global emissions ever recorded, which are pushing the Earth's systems to their limits.

💡Resource Constraints

Resource constraints are limitations on the availability of natural resources, which can impede economic growth and development. The script mentions resource constraints as a critical issue, as the demand for resources like food, water, and oil is outpacing the Earth's ability to supply them sustainably, leading to potential conflicts and economic instability.

💡Innovation

Innovation is the process of creating new ideas, devices, or methods; it is often seen as a key to solving complex problems. The video acknowledges the potential of human innovation and technology to address the challenges of sustainability but also points out that our current trajectory of growth is incompatible with the finite nature of our planet.

💡Overconsumption

Overconsumption is the use of resources at a rate that exceeds the capacity for regeneration or replacement. The video emphasizes that our current economic model is based on overconsumption, leading to environmental degradation and the depletion of natural resources, which is unsustainable in the long term.

💡Debt-Fueled Economic Growth

Debt-fueled economic growth is a model where economic expansion is driven by borrowing, which can lead to financial instability and economic crises if not managed properly. The script criticizes this model, suggesting that it is a part of the unsustainable system that is causing environmental and social problems.

💡Crisis Response

Crisis response is the reaction or measures taken to deal with an emergency or a situation requiring urgent attention. The video suggests that a crisis can be a powerful motivator for change. It uses historical examples, such as the rapid mobilization during World War II, to illustrate how fear and crisis can drive extraordinary actions and transformations.

💡One Degree War Plan

The One Degree War Plan is a hypothetical plan mentioned in the video that aims to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy within 20 years. It serves as an example of how, with the right focus and mobilization, it is possible to address the challenges of climate change and transition to a sustainable economy.

💡Interconnected System

An interconnected system is one where components are linked and interdependent. The video argues that we often fail to see the world as an interconnected system, instead viewing issues like debt crises, inequality, and resource constraints as separate problems. The speaker suggests that these are, in fact, symptoms of a larger systemic breakdown that needs to be addressed.

Highlights

The Earth is full, with too much human presence, waste, and demands exceeding the planet's capacity.

Our current economy is unsustainable, operating beyond the means of our planet's resources.

Global Footprint Network scientists calculate that we need 1.5 Earths to sustain our current economy.

Economic growth is based on the 'crazy idea' of infinite growth on a finite planet.

The current trajectory of economic growth will inevitably stop due to resource depletion.

Despite warnings and evidence, little has been done to change our unsustainable path.

The crisis is imminent and will hit the economy, necessitating a change in our response to the situation.

The system of debt-fueled economic growth and ineffective democracy is breaking down.

Fear is a powerful motivator that can drive us to respond effectively to the crisis.

The crisis presents an opportunity for a significant shift towards a sustainable and abundant society.

Eliminating net CO2 emissions within 20 years is achievable with existing technology and political structures.

The 'One Degree War Plan' outlines a strategy for rapid economic transformation towards sustainability.

A crisis can be the catalyst for extraordinary action and change, as seen in historical examples like World War II.

The transition to a sustainable economy requires a change in mindset and emotional response to the situation.

Every individual has a role to play in the transition to a sustainable society, from entrepreneurs to parents.

Choosing life over fear and taking collective action can lead to a stronger, happier, and long-lasting civilization.

The current crisis is an opportunity for our finest hour, where humanity can demonstrate its capacity for innovation and change.

Transcripts

Let me begin with four words

that will provide the context for this week,

four words that will come to define

this century.

Here they are:

The Earth is full.

It's full of us, it's full of our stuff,

full of our waste, full of our demands.

Yes, we are a brilliant and creative species,

but we've created a little too much stuff --

so much that our economy is now bigger

than its host, our planet.

This is not a philosophical statement,

this is just science

based in physics,

chemistry and biology.

There are many science-based analyses of this,

but they all draw the same conclusion --

that we're living beyond our means.

The eminent scientists of the Global Footprint Network, for example,

calculate that we need about 1.5 Earths

to sustain this economy.

In other words,

to keep operating at our current level,

we need 50 percent more Earth than we've got.

In financial terms,

this would be like always spending 50 percent more than you earn,

going further into debt every year.

But of course, you can't borrow natural resources,

so we're burning through our capital,

or stealing from the future.

So when I say full, I mean really full --

well past any margin for error,

well past any dispute

about methodology.

What this means is our economy is unsustainable.

I'm not saying it's not nice or pleasant

or that it's bad for polar bears or forests,

though it certainly is.

What I'm saying

is our approach is simply unsustainable.

In other words, thanks to those pesky laws of physics,

when things aren't sustainable, they stop.

But that's not possible, you might think.

We can't stop economic growth.

Because that's what will stop: economic growth.

It will stop because of the end of trade resources.

It will stop because of the growing demand of us

on all the resources, all the capacity,

all the systems of the Earth,

which is now having economic damage.

When we think about economic growth stopping,

we go, "That's not possible,"

because economic growth is so essential to our society

that is is rarely questioned.

Although growth has certainly delivered many benefits,

it is an idea so essential

that we tend not to understand

the possibility of it not being around.

Even though it has delivered many benefits,

it is based on a crazy idea --

the crazy idea being

that we can have infinite growth

on a finite planet.

And I'm here to tell you the emperor has no clothes.

That the crazy idea is just that,

it is crazy,

and with the Earth full, it's game over.

Come on, you're thinking.

That's not possible.

Technology is amazing. People are innovative.

There are so many ways we can improve the way we do things.

We can surely sort this out.

That's all true.

Well, it's mostly true.

We are certainly amazing,

and we regularly solve complex problems

with amazing creativity.

So if our problem

was to get the human economy down

from 150 percent to 100 percent of the Earth's capacity,

we could do that.

The problem is we're just warming up

this growth engine.

We plan to take this highly-stressed economy

and make it twice as big

and then make it four times as big --

not in some distant future,

but in less than 40 years,

in the life time of most of you.

China plans to be there in just 20 years.

The only problem with this plan

is that it's not possible.

In response, some people argue,

but we need growth, we need it to solve poverty.

We need it to develop technology.

We need it to keep social stability.

I find this argument fascinating,

as though we can kind of bend the rules of physics

to suit our needs.

It's like the Earth doesn't care what we need.

Mother nature doesn't negotiate;

she just sets rules and describes consequences.

And these are not esoteric limits.

This is about food and water, soil and climate,

the basic practical and economic foundations

of our lives.

So the idea that we can smoothly transition

to a highly-efficient,

solar-powered, knowledge-based economy

transformed by science and technology

so that nine billion people

can live in 2050

a life of abundance and digital downloads

is a delusion.

It's not that it's not possible to feed, clothe and house us all

and have us live decent lives.

It certainly is.

But the idea that we can gently grow there

with a few minor hiccups

is just wrong,

and it's dangerously wrong,

because it means we're not getting ready

for what's really going to happen.

See what happens when you operate a system

past its limits

and then keep on going

at an ever-accelerating rate

is that the system stops working and breaks down.

And that's what will happen to us.

Many of you will be thinking,

but surely we can still stop this.

If it's that bad, we'll react.

Let's just think through that idea.

Now we've had

50 years of warnings.

We've had science proving

the urgency of change.

We've had economic analysis pointing out

that, not only can we afford it,

it's cheaper to act early.

And yet, the reality is

we've done pretty much nothing to change course.

We're not even slowing down.

Last year on climate, for example,

we had the highest global emissions ever.

The story on food, on water, on soil, on climate

is all much the same.

I actually don't say this in despair.

I've done my grieving about the loss.

I accept where we are.

It is sad,

but it is what it is.

But it is also time

that we ended our denial

and recognized

that we're not acting, we're not close to acting

and we're not going to act

until this crisis hits the economy.

And that's why the end of growth

is the central issue

and the event that we need to get ready for.

So when does this transition begin?

When does this breakdown begin?

In my view, it is well underway.

I know most people don't see it that way.

We tend to look at the world,

not as the integrated system that it is,

but as a series of individual issues.

We see the Occupy protests,

we see spiraling debt crises,

we see growing inequality,

we see money's influence on politics,

we see resource constraint, food and oil prices.

But we see, mistakenly, each of these issues

as individual problems to be solved.

In fact, it's the system

in the painful process of breaking down --

our system, of debt-fueled economic growth,

of ineffective democracy,

of overloading planet Earth,

is eating itself alive.

I could give you countless studies

and evidence to prove this,

but I won't because, if you want to see it,

that evidence is all around you.

I want to talk to you about fear.

I want to do so because, in my view,

the most important issue we face

is how we respond

to this question.

The crisis is now inevitable.

This issue is, how will we react?

Of course, we can't know what will happen.

The future is inherently uncertain.

But let's just think through what the science is telling us

is likely to happen.

Imagine our economy

when the carbon bubble bursts,

when the financial markets recognize

that, to have any hope

of preventing the climate spiraling out of control,

the oil and coal industries are finished.

Imagine China, India and Pakistan going to war

as climate impacts

generate conflict over food and water.

Imagine the Middle East without oil income,

but with collapsing governments.

Imagine our highly-tuned, just-in-time food industry

and our highly-stressed agricultural system failing

and supermarket shelves emptying.

Imagine 30 percent unemployment in America

as the global economy is gripped

by fear and uncertainty.

Now imagine what that means for you,

your family, your friends,

your personal financial security.

Imagine what it means

for your personal security

as a heavily armed civilian population

gets angrier and angrier

about why this was allowed to happen.

Imagine what you'll tell your children

when they ask you,

"So, in 2012, Mom and Dad,

what was it like

when you'd had the hottest decade on record

for the third decade in a row,

when every scientific body in the world was saying

you've got a major problem,

when the oceans were acidifying,

when oil and food prices were spiking,

when they were rioting in the streets of London

and occupying Wall Street?

When the system was so clearly breaking down, Mom and Dad,

what did you do, what were you thinking?"

So how do you feel

when the lights go out

on the global economy in your mind,

when your assumptions about the future

fade away

and something very different emerges?

Just take a moment

and take a breath

and think, what do you feel

at this point?

Perhaps denial.

Perhaps anger.

Maybe fear.

Of course, we can't know what's going to happen

and we have to live with uncertainty.

But when we think about the kind of possibilities I paint,

we should feel a bit of fear.

We are in danger, all of us,

and we've evolved to respond to danger with fear

to motivate a powerful response,

to help us bravely face a threat.

But this time it's not a tiger at the cave mouth.

You can't see the danger at your door.

But if you look,

you can see it at the door of your civilization.

That's why we need to feel our response now while the lights are still on,

because if we wait until the crisis takes hold,

we may panic and hide.

If we feel it now and think it through,

we will realize we have nothing to fear

but fear itself.

Yes, things will get ugly, and it will happen soon --

certainly in our lifetime --

but we are more than capable

of getting through everything that's coming.

You see, those people that have faith

that humans can solve any problem,

that technology is limitless, that markets can be a force for good,

are in fact right.

The only thing they're missing

is that it takes a good crisis to get us going.

When we feel fear and we fear loss

we are capable of quite extraordinary things.

Think about war.

After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it just took four days

for the government to ban the production of civilian cars

and to redirect the auto industry,

and from there to rationing of food and energy.

Think about how a company responds to a bankruptcy threat

and how a change that seemed impossible just gets done.

Think about how an individual responds

to a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness

and how lifestyle changes

that previously were just too difficult

suddenly become relatively easy.

We are smart, in fact, we really are quite amazing,

but we do love a good crisis.

And the good news, this one's a monster.

(Laughter)

Sure, if we get it wrong,

we could face the end of this civilization,

but if we get it right,

it could be the beginning of civilization instead.

And how cool would it be

to tell your grandchildren that you were part of that?

There's certainly no technical or economic barrier in the way.

Scientists like James Hansen tell us

we may need to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy

in just a few decades.

I wanted to know what that would take,

so I worked with professor Jorgen Randers from Norway

to find the answer.

We developed a plan called "The One Degree War Plan" --

so named because of the level of mobilization and focus required.

To my surprise,

eliminating net CO2 emissions from the economy in just 20 years

is actually pretty easy and pretty cheap,

not very cheap,

but certainly less than the cost of a collapsing civilization.

We didn't calculate that precisely,

but we understand that's very expensive.

You can read the details,

but in summary, we can transform our economy.

We can do it with proven technology.

We can do it at an affordable cost.

We can do it with existing political structures.

The only thing we need to change

is how we think and how we feel.

And this is where you come in.

When we think about the future I paint,

of course we should feel a bit of fear.

But fear can be paralyzing or motivating.

We need to accept the fear and then we need to act.

We need to act

like the future depends on it.

We need to act like we only have one planet.

We can do this.

I know the free market fundamentalists will tell you

that more growth, more stuff and nine billion people going shopping

is the best we can do.

They're wrong.

We can be more,

we can be much more.

We have achieved remarkable things

since working out how to grow food some 10,000 years ago.

We've built a powerful foundation

of science, knowledge and technology --

more than enough to build a society

where nine billion people

can lead decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.

The Earth can support that

if we choose the right path.

We can choose this moment of crisis

to ask and answer the big questions of society's evolution --

like, what do we want to be when we grow up,

when we move past this bumbling adolescence

where we think there are no limits

and suffer delusions of immortality?

Well it's time to grow up,

to be wiser, to be calmer,

to be more considered.

Like generations before us,

we'll be growing up in war --

not a war between civilizations,

but a war for civilization,

for the extraordinary opportunity

to build a society

which is stronger and happier

and plans on staying around

into middle age.

We can choose life over fear.

We can do what we need to do,

but it will take every entrepreneur,

every artist,

every scientist, every communicator,

every mother, every father, every child,

every one of us.

This could be our finest hour.

Thank you.

(Applause)