Is the cycle ending early? Reasons to sell Bitcoin, crypto, stocks (my response)

Summary

The video discusses the current state of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, addressing concerns about a potential early end to the cycle due to recent market fluctuations. It analyzes the impact of global events such as the Middle East conflict and interest rate changes on the financial markets. The script also delves into the concept of the 'wall of worry' in financial markets and provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin's price levels, charting its resistance and support points. The video further explores the historical patterns of market corrections and the significance of ETF approvals in Hong Kong, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles and not reacting impulsively to news events.

Takeaways

• 📉 The cycle is currently undergoing a significant correction, with Bitcoin holding onto the support level around $60,000.
• 💡 The altcoin market is experiencing major declines, which is prompting discussions around the cycle and potential reasons for selling at this stage.
• 📈 Despite the current downturn, historical trends show that financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, tend to rise over time despite negative news events (the 'wall of worry').
• 🌐 The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have influenced market sentiment, but the impact on the market has been a typical response to such events, marking either significant or intermediate lows.
• 🔄 The cycle's potential end is not yet indicated by a significant breakdown in historical patterns or chart analysis.
• 📊 Technical analysis suggests that if Bitcoin breaks 60k, key support levels to watch are around 36,300 and further down at 37,000.
• 💹 The stock market is also experiencing one of its largest corrections in over six months, with the Dow Jones and NASDAQ showing similar trends.
• 🤔 The market is currently digesting the recent interest rate updates for 2024, which have shown fewer cuts than previously anticipated.
• 🌐 The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong is a significant development, but the market reaction has been subdued due to the ongoing cycle.
• 🔄 The altcoin market is showing signs of rotation, with a focus on strong altcoins that can potentially provide better returns in the longer term.
• 📈 Despite the current correction, the overall market sentiment remains relatively strong, and a potential mega fifth wave to the upside could be on the horizon for altcoins.

Q & A

What is the current status of Bitcoin in relation to the support level mentioned in the transcript?

Bitcoin is hanging on precariously to the support level, which is roughly around $60,000.

What event prompted discussions about the cycle potentially ending early?

The major declines in the stock markets have prompted questions about the cycle ending early.

What is the 'wall of worry' in financial terms?

The 'wall of worry' refers to financial markets trending up over time but showing signs of dips when there is some extreme bad news.

How does the 'wall of worry' affect investor behavior?

The 'wall of worry' often causes fear or extreme fear among the masses, leading them to miss out on investment opportunities as markets continue to rise despite negative news.

What is the significance of the interest rate cut for 2024 mentioned in the transcript?

The interest rate cut for 2024 is significant because it was initially expected to be one of multiple cuts throughout the year, but the outlook has changed to fewer cuts and possibly even pauses or increases, which can influence market sentiment.

What is the historical pattern of market behavior during election years in the United States?

Historically, during election years in the United States, the market tends to grind sideways with some corrections depending on how hard the market has run.

What are the key indicators to watch for if the market cycle is potentially ending early?

Key indicators include an overbalance in time and price, and a break of major support levels. These signs could suggest that the cycle may be ending early, prompting a reevaluation of market positions.

What was the impact of the news about Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs being approved in Hong Kong?

The news about Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs being approved in Hong Kong has not significantly impacted the price of Bitcoin, as the market seems to be focusing more on other factors like the overall market cycle and external events.

What does the transcript suggest about the current state of the altcoin market?

The altcoin market is currently experiencing a correction that is still considered relatively strong in the long term, which could potentially lead to a significant upward movement in the future.

What advice is given for investors regarding weaker altcoins?

Investors are advised to rotate out of weaker altcoins and focus on stronger ones, as the weaker coins tend to break down against their Bitcoin value and do not provide the same potential gains as stronger altcoins.

How does the fear and greed index currently stand according to the transcript?

According to the fear and greed index, the current market is the least feared bull market, indicating that there is still potential for the market to reach an extreme fear reading before a significant shift occurs.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Market Cycles and Potential Selling Points

This paragraph discusses the current state of the market cycle, focusing on the potential reasons for selling Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as well as stocks. It mentions the precarious support level for Bitcoin around $60,000 and the impact of global events, such as the Middle East conflict, on market sentiment. The concept of the 'wall of worry' is introduced, describing how financial markets trend upwards despite negative news, and the importance of identifying key support and resistance levels is emphasized.

05:01

📊 Analyzing Interest Rates and Market Sentiment

The paragraph delves into the expectations surrounding interest rates in 2024, highlighting the common misconceptions about rate cuts and the actual outcomes. It discusses the impact of interest rate changes on market sentiment and how to interpret the probability of rate changes. The paragraph also explores the historical patterns of market behavior during election years, noting the typical sideways movement and corrections. The discussion concludes with a reflection on whether the current market cycle is ending early based on historical trends and chart analysis.

10:02

🌀 Understanding Market Corrections in Bull Cycles

This section provides an analysis of market corrections within bull cycles, emphasizing that corrections are a normal part of market behavior. It reviews the historical pattern of red (down) and green (up) months, indicating that after a red month, a green month typically follows. The paragraph also examines the S&P 500's largest correction and the importance of not panicking during market downturns, as the 'wall of worry' can lead to missed opportunities when the market rebounds.

15:04

📉 Assessing Support Levels and Market Reactions

The focus of this paragraph is on assessing the support levels in the market and how they react to news events. It discusses the significance of the 50% retrace level and the importance of not breaking major support to indicate a potential end to the cycle. The paragraph also considers the impact of the Hong Kong approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on the market, and how the market's reaction to such news can provide insights into its strength or weakness. The discussion includes a macro analysis of potential support levels and the implications for future market movements.

20:06

🔄 Navigating Fear and Greed in the Crypto Market

This paragraph addresses the fear and greed index in the context of the cryptocurrency market, highlighting that the current bull market has not yet reached extreme fear levels. It reviews past cycles and the typical market behavior, including the signs that indicate a potential market top. The paragraph advises on the strategy of rotating investments into stronger altcoins and away from weaker ones, based on their performance against Bitcoin. It emphasizes the importance of recognizing and acting on market trends to maximize returns and minimize risks.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, the speaker discusses the price fluctuations of Bitcoin, its resistance levels, and how it is affected by global events and market cycles. The speaker also compares Bitcoin's performance to other cryptocurrencies and traditional stocks, highlighting its role as a significant player in the financial market.

💡Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies, often referred to as cryptos, are digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for security. They are primarily used as a means of exchange and store of value, similar to traditional currencies. In the context of the video, the speaker is examining the broader crypto market, including altcoins, and how they correlate with Bitcoin's performance. The discussion includes potential reasons for selling or buying cryptocurrencies at different stages of the market cycle.

💡Market Cycle

A market cycle refers to the recurring pattern of economic expansion and contraction or market rise and fall over time. In the video, the concept of the market cycle is used to analyze and predict the behavior of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and stock markets. The speaker discusses whether the current market cycle might be ending early and what indicators to look for, such as significant price corrections and support levels.

💡Support Level

In financial markets, a support level is a price level where a stock or other traded security is likely to see buying interest, as it has previously experienced a 'bounce' from that level in the past. In the context of the video, the speaker is particularly interested in the $60,000 support level for Bitcoin and how the market reacts to this level, considering it a critical point for potential buying or selling decisions.

💡Resistance Level

A resistance level is a price level at which a traded asset, like a stock or cryptocurrency, has historically struggled to move higher. In the video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's potential resistance level at $70,000 and how it fell short of reaching this level, indicating a bearish trend or a potential market reversal.

💡Wall of Worry

The Wall of Worry is a term used in financial markets to describe a situation where markets continue to rise despite, or even because of, bad news or negative events. In the video, the speaker uses this concept to analyze how financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, tend to trend upwards over time despite negative news headlines, such as geopolitical conflicts or economic crises.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing and the return on investment for lenders. They play a significant role in the economy and financial markets, influencing the cost of credit, investment decisions, and overall market sentiment. In the video, the speaker discusses how changes in interest rates can affect financial markets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, and how market participants often misinterpret the direction of interest rates.

💡ETFs

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are investment funds and exchange-traded products that hold assets such as stocks, bonds, or commodities and are traded on stock exchanges similar to individual stocks. In the context of the video, the speaker mentions the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong, which could potentially influence the market sentiment and the price of cryptocurrencies.

💡Altcoin

Altcoin is a term used to describe any cryptocurrency that is not Bitcoin. It refers to the numerous alternative cryptocurrencies that have been created, each with its own unique features and uses. In the video, the speaker analyzes the altcoin market, discussing the performance of various altcoins, their relative strength or weakness against Bitcoin, and strategies for investment.

💡Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index is a measure used in financial markets to gauge investor sentiment, typically ranging from 'extreme fear' to 'extreme greed.' It takes into account various factors such as market momentum, stock prices, and market dominance of certain assets to provide a snapshot of the current market sentiment. In the video, the speaker refers to this index to discuss the current state of the cryptocurrency market and the potential for future market movements.

Highlights

Discussion on the cycle of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in relation to current market trends and potential reasons for selling.

Analysis of the support level for Bitcoin at around $60,000 and its recent performance.

Mention of the altcoin market and significant declines observed.

Connection between geopolitical events, such as the situation in the Middle East, and market sentiment.

Explanation of the term 'wall of worry' and its relevance to financial markets.

Historical context of market reactions to negative news and the concept of market resilience.

Discussion on interest rate cuts for 2024 and how market expectations often differ from actual outcomes.

Analysis of the US election year's impact on market trends and typical sideways movement observed.

Overview of the current market correction in the context of historical data and its significance.

Identification of key support levels for Bitcoin and how they could influence market behavior.

Discussion on the reaction of the stock market to recent events and the potential for sideways movement.

Analysis of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ corrections, and the implications for the broader market.

Consideration of the US dollar's performance and its impact on Bitcoin and other assets.

News about Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs being approved in Hong Kong and its potential market influence.

Explanation of market cycles and the importance of patience in navigating through them for potential gains.

Discussion on the fear and greed index in the context of the current bull market and its implications for investors.

Advice on rotating investments into strong altcoins and away from weaker ones based on market performance.

Transcripts

is the cycle ending early are there

reasons to be selling Bitcoin and

cryptos and potentially stocks as well

at this stage in the cycle that's on the

agenda for today's video as Bitcoin

hangs on precariously to the support

level here roughly around

$60,000 plenty coming up on BTC I've

also got the altcoin market to get

through with you guys uh some major

declines here for the stock markets

which has prompted these questions here

around the cycle and potential reasons

to sell early now if you have followed

me on Twitter which I suggest you do or

X down below I've covered a lot about

the wall of warrior which I'll get into

in today's video but that's basically

like a back catalog of what's happened

over the last two years ton of history

there so without further Ado let's dive

in guys you guys have been amazing

smashing the like button to help us beat

the YouTube algorithm I'm testing out

not putting in ridiculous headlines and

stupid faces so I need your help to I

guess further that Journey let's go

three and a half thousand likes in

today's video we can try and beat the

YouTube algorithm all right so first up

going through just some of the news

headlines very very briefly stock market

news we've seen the stock markets fall a

little further not much else has

happened here after the big news of the

weekend with the war breaking out in the

Middle East or attempting to break out

at least what that's what the news is

telling us and you might have recalled

from a couple of days ago I suggested

that that low bar which was on Saturday

when we first saw a lot of that news

coming through from Iran trying to send

a few missile a lot of missiles over to

Israel sometimes these type of events

Mark significant lows or they can Mark

intermediate lows and so far that's

precisely what has happened so we've

seen that low the market rallied from

there in this case Bitcoin has rallied

from that point and it got to our

potential resistance level as we pointed

out in yesterday video looking at

$667,000 so it fell $71 short of hitting

that exact price which is a barely

fraction of a percent there so now it's

reversed significantly down 3 and a

half% on the day coming back towards

63,000 I'm going to cover this uh just a

little later on in the video should we

see a 60k break and what we could expect

to the downside in terms of uh price

levels there I've got a little bit more

to get through on this particular chart

looking at very key uh price levels

based on the chart here with significant

swings of course uh but I just want to

cover off where we sit with this war

news here which seems to have lost a

little bit of energy over the last 24

hours when it comes to the market

sentiment itself and the price at least

for um BTC the technical term for this

is the wall of worry essentially it's

markets financial markets trending up

over time but showing signs of dips when

there is some extreme bad news so this

extremely bad news uh typically as I

said puts in lows or significant lows or

sort of local lows in the market and

then we start to build from that point

again meanwhile the masses are sort of

sitting in fear or extreme fear and

they're missing out on these

opportunities so I want to have a look

at how we can identify these areas

around these points we're not trying to

pick the exact low we're not going to

buy the exact low point but around those

prices as we have done here on the

channel in 2022 and 2023 and I'll show

you specifically on the charts and

you've got all the receipts there on X

as well as I went through with those

particular posts but if you're

unfamiliar with this familiar

familiarize yourself with it because

this has been going on for decades upon

decades it's the same sort of thing wall

of worry is a financial Market's

periodic tendency to surmount a host of

negative factors and keep ascending

that's what you would see in uh YouTube

and X all the time just tons and tons of

bad news headlines around Why Real

Estate should be crashing or stock

market should be crashing or any number

of reasons why anything should be

crashing yet over time you always see

the markets go up that's essentially

what the wall of worry is and

essentially you can find a lot of these

charts here that will point out every

single bad news event that's happened

along the way sometimes it's around

local top sometimes it's around local

bottoms uh but essentially over that

course of time the markets Trend up and

typically in a major bull market we

don't necessarily see very significant

corrections as I'll show you in just a

moment as well now if you do want to

follow here on X uh this is is the post

here that I started back in May and then

listed out a lot of events from 2022 as

well and showed the timing of those for

that wall of War so it's it's

essentially like um I don't know like a

textbook or a back catalog or something

like that where you can see these events

playing out and then you can pinpoint

them onto the chart themselves so that's

how I like to use this here and I've

added the interest rates to it recently

um speaking of interest rates this is

fresh now one interest rate cut for 2024

now of course this can change tomorrow

and we go back to two interest rate Cuts

whatever it is the main point that I

make here with interest rates and how

the masses always get it wrong or almost

always get it wrong is that majority

were expecting interest rate cuts at

every single meeting throughout 2024

you've heard me say that before and now

we're down to one yesterday there was a

brief moment where we even saw an

interest rate increase for September

that has obviously come back down here

and that this one here in December

jumped up so if you're unsure how to

read this I saw a couple of comments

about that through here you're just

looking at the blue and then looking at

the column that's the interest rate and

this is the probability of a pause which

is the current interest rate here an

increase which would be right or a

decrease which would be left and so far

uh what today were basically three

pauses one cut into September and then

pauses again and then I mean I suggest

it's probably going to go up this way

and then probably another cut in January

of 2025 and then it would just stay

around that for the next three meetings

so this has really squeezed to the right

meaning less Cuts maybe even just pauses

for a little while maybe even going into

the increases soon but the main thing

that the market has to do now is digest

this move which of course is causing

some fear out there in the markets uh

along with the the war over the weekend

so essentially just want to understand

how we can read this I'm showing again

because I think it's really prudent to

keep track of some of the seasonality

around the

markets essentially this is kind of what

happens in these years uh election years

that is we have an election coming up at

the end of the year or us election

coming up and you typically see a grind

sideways you'll see some corrections

just depending on how hard the market

has run you can see the Blue Line

sitting president uh running in the

election year excluding 2020 behind my

that's what it says there that's because

we had the co crash there so looking at

the blue line here it only went up about

4% into the peak there of March and you

can see it hit March again and then had

a slightly higher Peak here in early

April and then basically didn't do

anything it went sideways and down into

June before it started to to climb again

into August September paused again went

down slightly coming into the election

then you start to see it run away this

time however we've had a pretty

significant run in the first quarter

this basically got to um April 1st

before we saw that top and then the

markets have corrected from there down

about 4 or

so% from the entire move of um 2024

essentially that's what the chart would

look like now if this was updated so we

might see more volatility but you can

still see that would probably be some

sort of side sideways churn just based

on the historic charts here

so looking at the question that I've

posed here is the cycle early are there

reasons to be selling out so far

everything still seems on track

according to history and according to

the charts there hasn't been any

significant breakdown although we've

seen a a pretty significant move down at

this um uh at this point in the market

we're down 6% I pointed this out on the

channel now a couple of weeks ago here

we go 10 days Bitcoin is entering the

biggest stock market correction in over

6 months that was confirmed with the Dow

Jones falling to its biggest correction

um I'll just move this here so you can

see 5.5% this had moved down and got us

to one of the uh getting close to one of

the biggest Corrections because it

outdid this correction here and then

it's continued on so the Dow Jones now

has a bigger correction than six months

ago so I could change that and say it's

a bigger correction than six months

doesn't matter the main thing we're

looking for here is an overbalance in

time overbalance in price and a break of

major support support to give us reasons

to potentially start to ease up on the

positions if you in these markets they

would be the major signs that this cycle

could be ending

early and then we'd have to look forward

to sort of the the weekly and the

monthly chart right now we're just on

the daily we've seen an overbalance in

price there's

2,447 points and previous to that was

1,900 points so this is the largest

correction now in terms of price hasn't

exceeded it in time just yet you've got

11 days here and we're only at nine

trading days here so couple more days to

go and then this will potentially

exceeded in time as well and then we've

got to get back down to Breaking these

lows here roughly 37,000 plus there's

still support back at

36,300 so there's still a fair bit of

support to the downside that would take

it out to about 99.8% if it was to get

there for the Dow Jones now just before

I get on to the um e- mini here and the

NASDAQ I want to show you the

corrections here on the monthly chart

and what we've seen in the past uh just

as an understanding that Corrections

happen and then what happens after that

point in these grinding bull markets to

the upside this's been a quick fast move

down nothing out of the ordinary so far

typically after a red month not always

but I'm just saying typically in this

entire move over the last 15 years and

you could go back previous to that as

well essentially after a red month

typically you'll see a green month now

there's normally one to two red months

some cases like you can see here there

was three that was basically flat and

then a couple lower which was still

holding above their previous resistance

levels and you know you got a period

here where in 2011 that was a

significant correction it was still

early days after the covid collapse and

then this was the higher low in the real

estate cycle so you got the real estate

and economic cycle so moving on from

that point you can go through the entire

history here if you wanted me to spend

another hour here I could do that but

essentially couple of months red then

green red then more green one red one

green one red we sort of move on again

even the co crash had three red months

uh but these months well this month here

was higher highs higher lows you had two

significant red months and then

basically it was on again for more green

even the bare Market of 2022 was two red

months one green you you didn't even see

three in a row the last time we saw

three in a row was um late 2023 which

then spurred on this 5 months to the

upside so I'm just putting that out

there to um suggest that doesn't mean

just because we're in this first red

month it doesn't mean things are over

and just to keep a level head about the

markets because as we've covered before

the wall of War can really start to

drain on people or investors and only to

see the market then head up after that

point without them the S&P 500 same sort

of D now we've got the largest

correction there is an overbalance in

time and price remember still got to

break major support so that's these

levels back down here roughly around

5,000 and uh yeah 5,000 to 4900 and then

the major 50% which we are a long way

from at this point would be back down to

this October low somewhere around 47 so

let's just play it one step at a time

watching what the reaction is at around

49 to 5,000 points 4,900 to 5,000 points

NASDAQ also same sort of thing it's um

coming up towards one of its largest

Corrections for this entire move

remember it's been 5 months up so I

think that's a really important Point

here as we continue on now for the US

dollar it's still climbing higher we're

on the daily chart here as we pointed

out resistance at around 107 so

nothing's out of the ordinary here

watching how this Market reacts to 107

because if this keeps going up then that

continues to put pressure on assets

meaning stock markets Bitcoin we've

obviously seen that come down cryptos

have obviously gotten slaughtered but

essentially USD is assets potentially

down or pause Bitcoin showing relative

strength while USD is rising so this has

been rising Bitcoin still in its trading

range so we're looking at this trading

range now of around 48 days between 60

and um

$74,000 I'll get onto this in just a sec

but obviously the news that's come

through Bitcoin uh ETFs and ethereum

ETFs are being approved in Hong Kong I

think this has actually gone through now

just in Hong Kong approves spot Bitcoin

and E ethereum ETF applications we

haven't really seen much happen in terms

of the price That's The Power of Cycles

Cycles within Cycles shorter term longer

term right now the market is is not so

strong it doesn't take a genius to see

that now but we've been talking about

this for weeks on end that it seems like

it was overextended so you got this

fantastic news of ETFs in Hong Kong

essentially China is some point out and

the price is well it's down 3 and a

half% on the day so it's always from my

analysis it's always most important to

refer to the charts the news will play a

part in the cycle maybe it sort of it

ran up into that news and now it's

basically reversed again because

essentially we still need more time at

these levels to test whether there is

going to be some strength in the short

term or in the longer term speaking of

that strength well we saw the fake out

that led to weakness we saw the failure

here at

67,000 that again led to weakness to the

downside so around 9 to 60,000 now is

the support level so that takes us to

this macro chart over here now these

significant levels to the downside

that's the one month close there at 614

so we'll keep an eye on that as we head

into the end of the month we've still

got another two and a half months to go

until the quarter closes but in the past

there has been one to two red quarters

each cycle and that's nothing out of the

ordinary either this was a red quarter

back here this is also a red quarter

I've for got a monthly chart but if we

throw it on the three Monon trying to

make this quick for you guys as well you

can see we had red quarters and they

were still within the uh the price range

of the previous quarter so if that were

to happen now um it would probably be an

inside month you'd have potentially a

lower high if it remained uh the the

high price that remained where it is and

the low price here is at 36 so I don't

think it's going to get to 36,000 of

course I don't have the crystal ball but

um if that is the case right and it

stays above 36 you could have a red

quarter but it's still um within the

price of the previous quarter so you

wouldn't even see a turn down in that

which is still relatively strong so

we've seen one red quarter so far this

potentially is the second because as you

get towards the end of the cycle things

just absolutely go nuts and you'll see

multiple red quarters in a row which at

the moment we've only seen two green

sorry multiple green quarters in a row

and at the moment we've only seen two

green quarters in a row um in terms of

these reasons to sell part of the wall

of War which you can check out on my X

account these reasons to sell quite

quickly were extreme news events for

Bitcoin and crypto May was the Luna

collapse and June was the defi collapse

or vice versa either way essentially

there were some reasons there that

Bitcoin was over and you know this whole

thing is dead and done FTX has screwed

us which lead to led to FTX collapse

here at the low and then another low

here was the banking crisis bottom then

we we had uh SEC suing binance which was

essentially an attack on crypto and then

in September there was more stuff around

binance the SEC more lawsuits and this

sort of stuff which essentially led to

that higher low before the market went

absolutely ballistic so a lot of major

reasons to sell at the bottom but if you

had the patience and that patience was

over 12 months sounds a bit crazy but if

you had that patience well then you're

reaping the rewards to the upside you

just got to hang in there at this stage

of the cycle so there the the prices to

the downside plenty of reasons to sell I

don't think that's the case uh right now

there the reasons to sell in the bull

market will come from typically a lot of

good news like we saw in March of Drake

posting about Michael sailor and his

portfolio and how great Bitcoin is that

is a sort of scary thing because of how

much greed there is in the market it's

not the other way around in my opinion

which um you know I've just talked about

here with the the war news that has gone

on over the weekend so if we look

towards the downside now in case of any

breakdown of 60k well the three the

quarterly close is here in March that's

the highest quarterly close so far um oh

sorry last month was obviously the

highest quarterly close but this is the

one prior to that so that's at 588 call

at 59k which is essentially March's low

50% is at 56k and then these are the two

major ones back here your 52k and 48k so

they're the big ones to watch in case we

do see further downside but essentially

if it was a quick Wick and then higher

closes no bad signs what soever longer

term just great entry opportunities if

you can stomach those particular moves

to the downside and in terms of the fear

and greed for crypto we're still sitting

at 65 uh I pointed out yesterday that

this has been the least feared bull

market just according to the data we

have from the fear and greed index if we

look at the low point which was no

November we Bitcoin and crypto or the

whole Market essentially has only been

in the extreme fear stage once in

previous cycles for the D that we have

here it's been in the extreme fear um

reading multiple times leading into the

Peaks and that was the F the second Peak

there and that was the first peak of the

2021 cycle and it even hit it within the

cycle itself as it was coming towards

the top it was still able to scare a lot

of the investors out so we haven't even

reached that that yet maybe this is the

time that we do at least see one sort of

extreme fear reading we'll have to wait

and see if that is the case then it's

going to be prudent to keep a very

strong eye on strong altcoins now that

is the chart of a strong altcoin you I'm

not telling you to buy fetch.ai or fet

right I'm not telling you bu I'm just

looking at a strong chart in its current

state if this goes underneath these

levels that is going to be weak the main

things to watch here are the 50% the

previous tops which are the support and

resist resistance and then the previous

accumulation range somewhere around that

level there around this white line here

as well if it drops into that zone that

is much much weaker and this is the

altcoin against BTC it's not saying that

it can't go up later it just just simply

looking at the chart it has more work to

do to get back to strong a strong stage

of the chart a strong area which would

then give you easier returns to the

upside so you know that's why I'm paying

particular attention to the altcoins

against their BTC chart you want to see

strength in these charts you don't want

to see them breaking down and of course

I can easily pick on a million different

allcoins but I always pick on the one so

you can see the progression here xrp BTC

it continues to break lower and lower

which is why it does not do the same

sort of gains as I don't know 100 200

500 different altcoins that are in the

top thousand altcoins right this is the

biggest reason here it's just so weak

against its Bitcoin value sorry to pick

on the the xrp crew again but you can

pick any altcoin that does this and just

continues to break down I don't know why

people keep talking about this and they

love it so much I'll leave it up to them

and they can enjoy their losses or very

very tiny gains what we're looking at

now is the correction on the altcoin

market still looking relatively strong

longer term which could lead to this

Mega fifth wave to the upside as I said

it could lead to the mega fifth wave to

the upside for now it's done what it's

done in the past four weeks down four

weeks down 7even n uh previously it did

four weeks down five weeks down put in a

higher low then pushed again so oh and

then here it's also hit the Tipping

Point and had a had a pullback so

previously it um hit the Tipping Point

short for a short period of time you can

see multiple weeks here and then it took

off from there for now it's basically

hit it and we're having a little bit of

a pullback after such a significant run

in the first quarter of 2024 so all sort

of healthy Corrections at this stage for

the altcoin market right now is the time

to be rotating into those strong

altcoins getting rid of those dead

altcoins as we talk about often with the

members in Tia links to that are in the

top of the video description we'll go

through in detail how to pick those

altcoins which are going to be stronger

in any sort of altcoin season or altcoin

bull market and stay away from those

weaker coins that just continue to break

down against their Bitcoin value that's

it hit the like 35,000 appreciate your

support guys I'll see you back here at

the next video again I don't think the

Cycle's ending early and I don't think

there's any reason to be selling in

terms of a rotation I think there are

plenty of reasons to do that when it

comes to weaker all coins thanks again

take care and peace out