Bitcoin Poised for UP DOWN Volatility until the election.

Summary

In this video, Jim, a crypto and forex trader, provides a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's current market structure using Elliott Wave theory. He presents both bullish and bearish scenarios, emphasizing the importance of Bitcoin's movement near key trend lines. Jim highlights the possibility of a significant upward move, potentially reaching $140K, or a hard dump leading to a multi-year bear market. He also discusses short-term price action, expecting consolidation before a decisive move post-election. His analysis encourages viewers to watch trend lines and anticipate either a continuation or a reversal.

Takeaways

• 📈 Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with a major structure forming that could indicate a bullish scenario.
• 📊 A potential bull flag pattern is emerging, signaling a possible fifth wave to the upside in Bitcoin's price action.
• 🚀 If this wave pattern continues, Bitcoin could rapidly rise, with projected targets between $120K and $146K.
• 📉 A bearish scenario suggests that Bitcoin could drop hard, potentially reaching a support level between $4K and $10K in the next couple of years.
• 🔄 The market may either consolidate within current levels or see a significant pump or dump, depending on how trendlines are tested and held.
• 📐 Various Elliott Wave patterns are in play, with the bullish pattern relying on trendline support and a potential extended fifth wave.
• ⚖️ Both bullish and bearish scenarios are possible, with Bitcoin either breaking upwards or facing a multi-year bear market.
• 📅 The outcome could take years to fully play out, and short-term price movements may involve rejection and retracements at key levels.
• 💡 Short-term analysis suggests potential consolidation within the current range leading up to the election, after which a major move is expected.
• 📉 If Bitcoin breaks above key trendlines, it may initially spike before retracing, indicating a possible flat correction and further downward movement.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of the video?

The primary focus of the video is on analyzing Bitcoin's price action using Elliot Wave theory, discussing both bullish and bearish scenarios.

What technical issue did Jim encounter during the live stream?

Jim had a technical difficulty, which led him to cancel the stream and share his analysis through the video.

What is the bullish scenario Jim discusses for Bitcoin?

In the bullish scenario, Jim sees Bitcoin in a third wave, projecting that the price could rise to 120-140k if the wave continues to the upside. He mentions a fifth wave extension and a potential peak at around 146k.

How does Jim use Fibonacci extensions in his analysis?

Jim uses Fibonacci extensions to project potential price targets for Bitcoin. He highlights levels such as 2618, 3618, and 4618, which suggest significant upward movement if the bullish wave continues.

What does Jim predict could happen after a bullish rally?

After a bullish rally, Jim predicts a potential multi-year bear market where Bitcoin could eventually fall back down to 20k, following a long upward wave and subsequent correction.

What is the bearish scenario Jim discusses for Bitcoin?

In the bearish scenario, Jim considers that Bitcoin might be forming a leading diagonal (diag) followed by a significant dump, taking the price down to the 4-10k range over the next year or two.

What is Jim's 'Moment of Truth' for Bitcoin in this video?

The 'Moment of Truth' refers to the current critical point in Bitcoin's price action where it must either break through key trendlines to confirm a bullish move or break down for a bearish outcome.

What does Jim recommend for traders if Bitcoin follows the bullish scenario?

Jim recommends taking profits near the top of the bullish wave, as he does not believe Bitcoin will continue rising indefinitely without a significant correction.

What key trendlines does Jim monitor for Bitcoin?

Jim monitors several trendlines in his analysis. He focuses on whether these lines hold or break, which will determine whether Bitcoin's price action remains bullish or turns bearish.

What impact does Jim foresee the U.S. election having on Bitcoin's price action?

Jim predicts that Bitcoin may consolidate within a range leading up to the U.S. election, with more decisive movement (either pumping or dumping) occurring afterward based on market reactions to the election outcome.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Bitcoin's Major Moment: Bullish Outlook

The speaker introduces the video, mentioning a technical difficulty that canceled a live stream. They then dive into the current state of Bitcoin, calling it a 'Moment of Truth' as Bitcoin is forming a major structure that could be interpreted as a bull flag. The speaker outlines a possible fifth wave in progress, potentially pushing Bitcoin's value up to 120-140k if the trend continues. Using Fibonacci extensions, the speaker projects various targets for Bitcoin, emphasizing a bullish count with the potential for an extended fifth wave. They warn of a possible multi-year bear market following this rise, suggesting that profits should be taken at the peak.

05:01

🔍 Analyzing Support Levels and Trend Lines

In this section, the speaker focuses on Bitcoin's trend lines and support levels. They emphasize the importance of these lines holding if the market is to remain bullish. A scenario is described where Bitcoin could experience a pullback before continuing its upward trajectory. The speaker warns of potential rejections and notes the significance of price bouncing off key support levels. Overall, the speaker outlines their bullish view, while also acknowledging that the price movement could go in different directions depending on how support holds up.

10:01

📉 Bearish Possibilities and Wave Structure

Here, the speaker explores a bearish scenario for Bitcoin. They propose that the current price action could be setting up for a significant drop, potentially leading to a year-long downtrend. The speaker identifies possible wave structures that support this bearish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall to the $10,000-$40,000 range over time. Despite this, they also present a scenario where the market eventually recovers after the decline. The speaker highlights the importance of monitoring trend lines for clues about which direction Bitcoin may go next.

Keywords

💡Elliot Wave

The Elliot Wave theory is a form of technical analysis used by traders to predict future market movements by identifying repetitive patterns. In the video, Jim uses the Elliot Wave perspective to assess the current and future price actions of Bitcoin, suggesting possible bullish or bearish trends based on wave structures.

💡Bull Flag

A Bull Flag is a technical chart pattern that indicates a strong uptrend followed by a consolidation phase, typically seen as a precursor to further upward movement. In the video, Jim identifies a potential bull flag in Bitcoin's chart, suggesting that Bitcoin may be preparing for a strong upward move in the market.

💡Third Wave

In Elliot Wave theory, the third wave is often the most powerful and extended move within a trend. Jim explains that Bitcoin is currently in the third wave of a potential five-wave sequence, indicating that fast and significant price movement could occur during this phase.

💡Fibonacci Extensions (Fibs)

Fibonacci Extensions are a tool used by traders to predict potential price targets based on the size of previous price movements. Jim uses Fibonacci levels like the 2618, 3618, and 4618 extensions to project how high Bitcoin might go if the current bullish trend continues, potentially reaching 120K or 140K.

💡Bear Market

A Bear Market is characterized by a prolonged period of falling prices, often marked by pessimism and negative sentiment. Jim warns that after a potential bullish phase, Bitcoin might enter a multi-year bear market, with prices possibly retreating to as low as 20K in the longer term.

💡Leading Diagonal

A Leading Diagonal is a type of Elliott Wave pattern where price moves in a converging range, often signaling the start of a larger trend. Jim discusses the possibility of a leading diagonal forming, which could be followed by a sharp decline, indicating a bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

💡ABC Correction

An ABC Correction is a three-wave corrective pattern often seen in Elliott Wave analysis. Jim mentions that a bearish scenario could involve an ABC correction after a bullish phase, where Bitcoin sees a significant drop after reaching high levels, with the price potentially falling back to $4,000 or $10,000.

💡Flat Wave

A Flat Wave is a corrective Elliott Wave pattern in which the price retraces in a relatively horizontal or sideways manner before resuming its trend. Jim speculates that Bitcoin might form a flat wave, which could result in a retrace of up to 90% or even a full 100% retracement before continuing upward or downward.

💡Trend Line

A Trend Line is a straight line drawn on a chart to visually represent the direction and strength of a trend. Jim highlights the importance of several trend lines in Bitcoin's chart, stating that whether they hold or break will be key in determining whether Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum or turns bearish.

💡Moment of Truth

The 'Moment of Truth' refers to a critical point in the market where the next significant move will confirm either a bullish or bearish trend. Jim emphasizes that Bitcoin is at such a moment, where the market must decide whether to break out into a higher bullish phase or begin a significant downward correction.

Highlights

The speaker addresses technical difficulties and presents market analysis in place of a canceled live stream.

Bitcoin is at a 'Moment of Truth,' forming a major structure resembling a bull flag, indicating potential upward movement.

The market could be forming a fifth wave to the upside, with projections suggesting rapid movement in the third wave.

A potential bullish scenario projects Bitcoin reaching $120k to $140k based on a Fibonacci extension, suggesting strong upward potential.

The extended fifth wave could reach a 161.8% extension, leading to a target around $140k, indicating a major rally before a multi-year bear market.

The bearish scenario suggests the current structure could be a three-wave move, followed by five waves downward, possibly leading to a drop as low as $4k to $10k.

If the bearish count is correct, the market could take a year or more to decline, with Bitcoin entering a multi-year bear market.

The key to the bullish scenario is Bitcoin holding the current trendline, breaking upwards and continuing the upward momentum.

In a bearish scenario, a leading diagonal pattern may form, signaling a sharp decline, breaking key support levels.

Short-term analysis indicates Bitcoin could consolidate within a defined range for the next month, due to market uncertainty around the upcoming election.

The speaker anticipates a potential retracement and three-wave rejection, followed by another push upwards if the market remains bullish.

Various wave structure interpretations are presented, such as a WXY pattern or ABC retrace, providing alternative market pathways.

In the event of a bearish breakout, the market may experience a fast and hard dump, further supporting the bearish case.

The speaker believes the market may consolidate until the election is over, with a significant move—either pump or dump—following the election.

The final outlook emphasizes the importance of watching key trendlines for either continued support and upward movement or a breakdown leading to a bearish scenario.

Transcripts

welcome to the gym of all trades Channel

glad you made it by my name is Jim I'm a

crypto Trader and a Forex Trader here to

help you understand the market from an

Elliot wave perspective hope you're

doing well guys normally doing Sunday

night charts tonight but I have a

technical diffic difficulty so just

going to have to uh I'm going to I

canceled the stream and uh going to

share my thoughts

here all right guys here's what's going

on is it's kind of the Moment of Truth

for Bitcoin here because this is a major

uh a a a major um structure that's being

created okay uh this structure right

here just on first glance looks like a

uh looks like a a bull flag okay you got

some kind of a three-way move there um

and there's different ways to to um how

do I say it there's different ways to

interpret that but now we've got we're

starting to go we're starting to get up

and go so that's a possibility there

there it is and so this could be making

a fifth wave to the upside you got one

two three four and then we need five so

what's happening then is this is a one

two

three we're we're we're in the third

wave okay that means it's going to be

fast and furious okay doesn't mean we

can't have a one two one2 um but uh let

me zoom in just a little bit there we go

you can you can kind of look at this

here as a a a

a one two right there this is a flat two

and now we're in wave three four five

now that that three four five is going

to go up a lot higher okay the way we

project third waves this is the bullish

count here guys is we pull the fibs like

it so and I would expect based on the

size of that first wave we're going to

get up to the at least the 2618 at least

minimum okay uh but a good chance we get

up to the 3618 or even the 4618 okay so

I I'm saying that if that if this is a

one two off the bottom and now we're now

we're pumping uh then uh we have a

really strong likelihood of going up to

120 140k no problem okay um so so there

there's one count for you right there

okay uh so we'd be counting this as a

one two three four and an extended fifth

wave now zooming back out just a little

bit I would

expect the extended fifth to be at least

a one to one extension of the one to

three

so boom uh actually I would say a 1618

extension would be even be

likely guys

146k not not a horrible Target right

there at all um 140k not not a bad

Target if this is bullish okay uh we

would look at this trend line up here

boom uh we we'd probably get a throw

over but this could

be just a giant leading

diag which would be followed by a dump

and a multi multi-year bare Market

multi-year Bar market so we pump pump

pump pump pump okay and then then we

dump multi-year bare market and we we

find

support uh back down

here

um at about

20K when when that's all said and

done and there you go and that there's

an Elliot wave sequence right there

where you got the initial wave

three-wave pullback and then we would

we'd be going so this would take this

would take years to play

this price action would remain in here

for years okay until finally it dumped

and got back down to

20K um so you you'd want to be taking

profit uh you'd want to be taking profit

up near the top this isn't just going to

keep going up and up and up and never

stop okay so uh so there's the bullish

count there for you guys that that's the

bullish look at it

um and and and that's a way to to

interpret what we've got going on um

it's a real possibility um so yeah

Moment of Truth here for Bitcoin uh on

on that bullish count okay

because we we need we we really need uh

Bitcoin to test this trend line right

here test this trend line and then break

up and out okay that's that's what we

need if if we're bullish okay that's

what we need to see and what we want to

see

is I'd like to see this trend line hold

it doesn't have to hold but I'd like to

see it hold um and but even it we could

pop up here threeway back and then go

again okay so so that's that would be a

one 2

one 2 and then we go so there's a

bullish idea for you

um that has us retesting this getting

some

rejection uh and then hopefully finding

support here on that trend line right

there boom so that's that's my bullish

look guys that's my bullish count that's

the way I'm thinking about it um that's

one one way of of interpreting the wave

now what what are some other waves uh

other ways to interpret what we've got

going on well uh if it's

bearish if it's bearish what we've might

have going on here and that we've been

talking about this for a long time is

that this could be a three-wave move a

three-wave move and now looking for five

waves back down to the downside and what

we have here is a one 12 one2 uh could

be a leading diag um you could have a

leading diag here one two three four

five okay there's a leading diag

potentially with a three-wave pull

back which could break that trend line

we talked about could break that trend

line uh but then and but then we could

just come on straight down boom all

right uh and that would

be one two

3 four

five we find support down here about

four between four and

$110,000

Okay so there there's the bearish

concept for you that this is actually

getting ready to dump and it's going to

dump hard and take us down uh you know

it'll take it it'll take you know the

next year to year and a half to for this

to play out right but we we dump and and

it could take even longer than that it

could take the next two years right so

um to dump but that would be a a a

bearish look okay

then all of a sudden you you're looking

at this as an A B and then one two 3 4

five

c a b c a b c and

then then we look for a pump okay but

that pump wouldn't you know it would

probably begin

slow and and work its way up okay all

right so there's there's the

bearish idea so we got a bullish idea we

got a bearish idea there and I don't

know which way it's going but this is

the Moment of Truth this is what we're

looking for so this wave structure here

what what we're going to want what

you're going to want to do is draw this

this trend line there you want to if

you're bullish you want that to hold and

and find this uh go you're going to draw

this trend line as well okay if this one

breaks you're going to want this one to

hold hold if you're bullish

okay and then

finally you're going to draw this trend

line here these are all support support

lines okay and which you want to see

price bouncing off of this and rejecting

okay uh you also want to see you you

also want to see price breaking this so

we we're we're going to more than likely

price is going to cons see these trend

lines here we're going to

consolidate in here okay oh my mouse is

jumping all over the place I think it

has to do with my OBS software guys I

think that's the problem

anyway okay boom boom boom boom boom or

boom

okay that's kind of where we are guys it

really is it's that simple it's that we

we could keep it that simplistic okay so

looking at on the small time frame 15

minute one

hour what we're getting a a bit of a

strong dump at the moment

okay so um we're going to draw this

trend line right here we'd like to see

come

on like to see that hold right there

if that breaks we're going to get we're

going to get bearish here uh on the

short

term I think it's going to

hold doesn't have to hold could be done

we're looking at this as a potential

a

b and we just came and tagged the one to

one I just don't think it's

finished I just don't I don't man it

just doesn't look finished a b c I can't

see five waves in here this might be

creating a fourth

wave yeah I I would expect this trend

line to hold hold and then and then a

move to the

upside now how do we interpret

this that because that's a really

interesting weird structure it it it's

really challenging really

challenging you could have a

wxy okay

a b

c a b

c a b

c w x

y now if they're going to double it up

this could be AB BC back so it could be

a larger w

x and then y

now if they bring if they bring this

back

90% okay then we're looking at a

flat boom boom boom 90%

retrace it could even be 100% take the

high come down fast a b

c so these are just wave structures

ideas that price could take in this area

uh the just because this looks like it

it's pumping doesn't mean it has to pump

I've just offered for you some bearish

ideas and I offer for you the bullish

idea now uh i i c you know bullishly

again don't forget I think is a good

chance we we we we reject off this trend

line right here that trend line we

reject in three waves and then continue

up after that now we don't have to find

support on this line it could it could

be shorter it could be a shallow retrace

and then continue but if you're bullish

that's what you want to see you want to

see a three-way pullback and then a

continuation let's rock let's get out of

here uh it could break up and out of

here okay it really could um but I don't

think so if in fact if if it

breaks up and out of that trend line

fast like here if it breaks oh come

on if it pops up here and and then

starts going I would expect it to Wick

back and come on down here okay because

then I then I'm looking at this as a

some kind of a flat okay and that could

precipitate a real a real fast and hard

dump okay so anyway with that said let's

watch price action here and let's see

see what happens here but uh I I think

what we're going to want to see is um

see what happens do we break this trend

line L and pull back and continue down

okay or is just find support here then

we come up pull back continue or we dump

from

there that's kind of where we are and I

think there's a good chance we

consolidate within this range for the

next month and it's probably going to do

that because we're going heading into an

election and the Market's uncertain

then after the election we'll we'll pump

or we'll

dump that's probably what we're looking

at right there so looking for a looking

for a pump up to the trend line and then

and then rejection in three waves and

playing around pump or

dump we can keep the analysis like that

that's that makes it simple all right

guys thanks for stopping by the channel

that's what I'm looking for for Price

action over the next the next couple of

months into the election I hope you guys

have a great day take it easy