Dalal Street Week Ahead: OCTOBER 1ST Week | 2024 | P R Sundar

Summary

In this video, the host discusses the Nifty and Bank Nifty performance, noting a significant rally in Nifty despite underperformance in Bank Nifty due to profit booking. Accenture and Reliance Industries stocks show recovery, with the latter appearing bullish. The video also covers the impact of US market ADRs on Nifty, geopolitical tensions, and upcoming economic data releases. The host anticipates a volatile October series with Nifty trading between 25,000 and 27,000. Key regulatory changes by SEBI are highlighted, including increased margin requirements and potential premium increases, affecting intraday traders. The video concludes with advice to maintain light positions ahead of the SEBI meeting.

Takeaways

• 📈 Nifty rallied about 400 points last week, while Bank Nifty only rose by 50 points due to profit booking in banks.
• 🔄 Accenture's good results and a 2% rise in Reliance Industries suggest a bullish trend for Reliance, which has been consolidating around 3,000 rupees.
• 📉 Profit booking in US markets on Friday night led to a negative impact on Nifty, with key ADRs like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Infosys falling over 2%.
• 🌐 Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon are noted, but markets are less likely to react to repeated events that are not surprising.
• 🌅 The expectation is for a slightly negative opening for Nifty on Monday, but this could change depending on Asian market performance.
• 📊 The US market has been consolidating and this trend is expected to continue, with no significant economic data expected to impact the market this week.
• 📅 October Series is anticipated to be very volatile, with Nifty likely trading between 25,000 and 27,000.
• 💹 High premiums are expected in the market due to it being a 5-week series, with the combined premium for 25,000 put and 27,000 call options being over 150 rupees.
• 🔑 The SEBI board meeting on September 30 is crucial, with proposals to increase margin money and lot size, which could significantly impact intraday players and option sellers.
• 🚫 SEBI is also considering only one weekly expiry per exchange, which could limit intraday trading and affect the demand and supply of options.

Q & A

What happened to the Nifty last week?

Last week, the Nifty rallied about 400 points.

How did the Bank Nifty perform compared to the Nifty?

The Bank Nifty underperformed compared to the Nifty, only rising by 50 points.

What was the reason behind the profit booking in banks?

Profit booking in banks on the last Friday was the main reason for the underperformance of the Bank Nifty.

How did the stock of Accenture perform?

Accenture's stock started recovering on Friday due to good results.

What is the current trend for Reliance Industries stock?

Reliance Industries has been consolidating around 3,000 rupees but has now moved significantly higher, looking bullish.

What was the impact of profit booking in US markets on Indian ADRs?

Profit booking in US markets on Friday night led to a decline in ICICI Bank ADR, HDFC Bank ADR, and Infosys ADR, impacting the Nifty.

What is the expected range for Nifty during the October Series?

The Nifty is expected to trade between 25,000 and 27,000 for the entire October Series.

What is the significance of the SEBI board meeting on September 30?

The SEBI board meeting is significant as it may propose changes such as increasing margin money and lot size, which could affect intraday players and options trading.

What is the potential impact of increasing margin money by 5% on intraday players?

Increasing margin money by 5% could significantly affect intraday players, as they would have to pay more, potentially by about 30,000 rupees for each contract.

How might the proposed changes by SEBI affect the volatility index?

The proposed changes by SEBI may result in a demand-supply mismatch and increased premiums, potentially causing the volatility index to rise.

What is the expected market sentiment during the upcoming festive season?

The market sentiment is expected to be positive during the upcoming festive season, as people usually make significant purchases, which could boost the economy and stock market.

What advice does the speaker give for trading positions ahead of the SEBI meeting?

The speaker advises keeping trading positions light ahead of the SEBI meeting to manage potential risks.