Why Russia Destroyed the World's 4th Biggest Lake

Summary

Скрипт видео рассказывает о катастрофе Аральского моря, вызванной антропогенными причинами. В 1960-х годах Советский Союз начал проект по изменению окружающей среды для развития хлопкового производства, что привело к сокращению поверхности и объема воды в море. Это вызвало экологические и социально-экономические последствия, включая ухудшение климата, снижение уровня сельского хозяйства и возможные будущие конфликты за доступ к воде в Центральной Азии.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Аральское море в Центральной Азии когда-то было четвертым по величине озером в мире, размером с штат Западная Вирджиния, США.
• 🏗️ В 1960-х годах решения Советского Союза начали приводить к уничтожению Аральского моря, что привело к его постепенному сокращению.
• 🚣‍♂️ До 1960-х годов Аральское море поддерживало огромный рыбной промышленный комплекс, который потерял свою значимость из-за сокращения воды.
• 🌊 Сокращение Аральского моря привело к глобальным экологическим катастрофам и изменению климата в регионе.
• 💧 Из-за перенаправления рек Амударьи и Сырдарья на甘蔗种植, Аральское море потеряло более 95% своего объема.
• 🏞️ Сокращение озера создало новый пустынь, Аралкум, который стал источником саляной пыли и токсинов, вызывающих проблемы со здоровьем и сельское хозяйство.
• 🌡️ Уничтожение Аральского моря привело к изменению климата в Центральной Азии, включая более высокие температуры зимой и летом.
• 🌿 Сокращение озера и изменение климата привели к созданию новых экологических проблем, таких как саляные бури и загрязнение пылью.
• 🌐 Экологические и социально-экономические последствия сокращения Аральского моря могут привести к конфликтам в регионе в будущем.
• 🌿 Центральная Азия, включая Узбекистан и Туркменистан, продолжает быть крупным производителем хлопка, что требует большого объема воды и угрожает оставшимся ресурсам воды.

Q & A

Аральское море когда было включено в список крупнейших озёр мира?

На протяжении большинства истории человечества Аральское море в Центральной Азии было четвертым по величине озером в мире.

Какие были три озера, которые были больше Аральского?

Тройка озёр, которые были больше Аральского, включала озеро Виктория в Африке, озеро Супериор в Северной Америке и Каспийское море непосредственно рядом с ним в Евразии.

В какой декаде началась серия решений, приведших к уничтожению Аральского моря?

Серия решений, принятых Советским Союзом, началась в 1960-х годах.

Что было основным источником воды в Аральском море до 1960-х?

До 1960-х годов основным источником воды в Аральском море были две могучие реки Центральной Азии - Амударья и Сырдарья.

Какой был процент убывания объема воды в Аральском море к 2020 годам?

К 2020 годам объем воды в Аральском море уменьшился более чем на 95 процентов.

Какой экологический катаклизм был вызван уничтожением Аральского моря?

Уничтожение Аральского моря является худшим экологическим катаклизмом за последние сто лет и одним из самых значительных изменений карты Земли в новейшей истории.

Какой проект был инициирован в 1930-х годах Иосифом Сталиным для изменения природы в Советском Союзе?

В 1930-х годах Иосиф Сталин ввел новый проект под названием 'Большая трансформация природы', предусматривающий изменение и перестройку природы и географии для удовлетворения нужд сельского хозяйства и промышленности.

Какой аграрный урожай был основным источником дохода в регионе после 1960-х?

После 1960-х годов основным источником дохода в регионе стали хлопковые плантации, которые были называемы Советами 'белым золотом'.

Что стало негативным следствием для окружающей среды из-за строительства каналов для орошения хлопковых плантаций?

Строительство каналов для орошения хлопковых плантаций привело к снижению уровня Аральского моря, ухудшению качества почвы из-за чрезмерного использования пестицидов и удобрений, а также к появлению новых пустынь, вызывающих салообразующие бури.

Какой процент площади Аральского моря сохранился к 2020 годам?

К 2020 годам осталось менее 10 процентов площади Аральского моря.

Какой экономический сектор был наибольшим потерпевшим от уничтожения Аральского моря?

Рыболовный сектор был наибольшим потерпевшим, так как коммерческая рыбаловство в Аральском море стало невозможным к 1987 году из-за сокращения объема воды и повышения ее засоления.

Outlines

00:00

🌊 Аральское море: история и катастрофа

Аральское море в Средней Азии было четвертым по величине озером в мире, размером с штат Западная Виргиния, США. В 1960-х годах советские решения привели к его постепенному уничтожению. В XXI веке озеро сократилось до 10% первоначального размера, и более 95% его воды исчезли. Это стало одним из худших экологических катастроф за столетие и одним из крупнейших изменений карты Земли в современной истории. До 1960-х Аральское море существовало тысячелетия в пустынях Средней Азии, получая воду из двух рек: Амударьи и Сырдарьи. Из-за низкого уровня осадков и высокой темпы испарения, озеро поддерживало равновесие между потерями и поступлением воды. Геополитическое значение озера было высоким, оно было частью границ Китая и России. В 1930-х годах Сталин начал 'Великую трансформацию природы', в рамках которой планировалось изменение ландшафта Средней Азии для развития сельского хозяйства и промышленности, что привело к созданию каналов для灌溉 новых земель в Узбекистане и Туркменистане.

05:01

🏞️ Эффекты советской политики на Аральское море

После построения каналов, которые отводили воду от рек Амударьи и Сырдарьи для irrigation новых хлопковых плантаций, Аральское море начало быстро уменьшаться. Недостаток воды и увеличение температуры поверхности воды ускорили процесс испарения. В результате, к 1998 году озеро потеряло 80% своего объема, и к 2014 году 95% его воды было испарено. Оставшиеся от Аральского моря земли превратились в пустыню, которая теперь называется Аральский песок. Экономика района, в том числе рыболовство, ушла в прошлое, и город Эрол, который раньше был центром рыболовства, теперь находится на расстоянии более 100 километров от воды. Промышленность хлопка в Узбекистане и Туркменистане продолжает существовать, несмотря на экологические последствия.

10:01

🌬️ Климатические изменения и экологические последствия

Уничтожение Аральского моря привело к изменению климата в Средней Азии. Озеро сыграло роль в модерации погоды, но без него температура зимой снизилась, а летом возрастает. В результате形成了新的沙漠——Аральский песок, который создает塩分 и пыльные бури, которые распространяются на большие расстояния и влияют на сельское хозяйство и здоровье людей. Пыльные бури несут с собой токсичные вещества, связанные с чрезмерным использованием пестицидов и удобрений, что приводит к ухудшению состояния здоровья населения и снижению экологии в регионе.

15:03

🌍 Глобальные экологические последствия и будущие конфликты

Пыльные бури, образованные из Аральского песка, распространяются по всему миру, включая Норвегию и Антарктику. В регионе Аральского моря рождаются детьми с аномалиями, и уровень смертности среди детей высокий. Глобальное изменение климата и местные факторы приводят к ускорению таяния ледников, что сокращает количество снега и воды в реках Амударьи и Сырдарьи. Это создает потенциал для будущих конфликтов между странами Средней Азии из-за нехватки воды для сельского хозяйства и промышленности.

20:03

🌐 Геополитические последствия и конфликты за ресурсы

Сокращение воды в реках Амударьи и Сырдарьи может привести к конфликтам между странами Средней Азии, особенно Узбекистаном и Таджикистаном, которые зависят от воды для своих хлопковых плантаций и энергетики. Узбекистан, находящийся в более благоприятном положении по контролю над ресурсами, может использовать этнические конфликты для получения доступа к водным ресурсам и позиций на геополитическом поле. Россия и Китай могут также играть роль в этом конфликте из-за своих геополитических интересов в регионе.

25:03

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Keywords

💡Аральское море

Аральское море - это озеро, которое в XX веке было четвертым по величине в мире. Оно было разрушено в результате решений Советского Союза, что привело к его сокращению и к серьезным экологическим последствиям. В видео это озеро является центральным объектом, вокруг которого разворачивается история и экологическая катастрофа.

💡Советский Союз

Советский Союз - это государство, существовавшее до 1991 года, которое приняло решение о реализации проекта, приведшего к разрушению Аральского моря. В видео упоминается, что в 1960-х годах Советский Союз начал проект 'Большое преобразование природы', который включал перенаправление воды из рек в каналы для орошения пустынных земель.

💡Хлопок

Хлопок - это культура, которую стали выращивать на затопленных пустынных землях в Узбекистане и Туркменистане. В видео упоминается 'белое золото', что является метафорой для хлопка, который был основным источником экономического роста в регионе, но также и причиной экологической катастрофы.

💡Экологическая катастрофа

Экологическая катастрофа - это серьезное нарушение экологии, вызванное антропogenicheскими факторами. В контексте видео это описывает последствия для Аральского моря и окружающей среды, включая сокращение поверхности озера, засуху и изменение климата.

💡Амударья

Амударья - одна из двух рек, которые раньше пополняли Аральское море. В видео говорится о том, что вода из Амударьи перенаправлялась в каналы для орошения хлопковых плантаций, что приводит к сокращению уровня озера.

💡Сыр Дарья

Сыр Дарья - вторая из двух рек, которые раньше пополняли Аральское море. Так же, как и Амударья, ее вода перенаправлялась в каналы, что приводит к сокращению уровня озера.

💡Эвапotation

Эвапotation - это процесс испарения воды. В видео упоминается, что из-за сокращения поступления воды из рек и уменьшения объема озера, темп испарения увеличился, что приводит к дальнейшему сокращению уровня Аральского моря.

💡Коттоновые плантации

Коттоновые плантации - это земли, где выращивают хлопок. В видео говорится, что для их орошения использовались воды из рек, что привело к экологической катастрофе и разрушению Аральского моря.

💡Климатические изменения

Климатические изменения - это изменения в климатических условиях на Земле. В видео упоминается, что исчезновение Аральского моря привело к изменению климата в регионе, включая повышение температуры и засуху.

💡Пыльные бури

Пыльные бури - это явления, когда сильные ветры поднимают пыль и песок. В видео говорится, что после сокращения Аральского моря образовался новый пустыня, и пыльные бури стали переносить соли и токсины из засолавшего озера, что приводит к проблемам со здоровьем и сельским хозяйством.

💡Гидроэлектростанции

Гидроэлектростанции - это станции, где из воды вырабатывается электричество. В видео упоминается, что в странах республики Среднеазиатского региона, таких как Кыргызия и Таджикистан, ГЭС обеспечивают большую часть энергии, и сокращение рек из-за исчезновения Аральского моря может привести к проблемам с энергоснабжением.

Highlights

The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world, comparable in size to West Virginia.

In the 1960s, Soviet decisions led to the destruction of the Aral Sea, causing it to shrink rapidly.

By the 2020s, the Aral Sea had reduced to less than 10% of its original size.

The disappearance of the Aral Sea is considered one of the worst environmental catastrophes of the past century.

The Aral Sea's equilibrium was maintained by a balance between evaporation and water inflow from two major rivers.

The Soviet Union's 'Great Transformation of Nature' aimed to increase agriculture and industry by diverting river water for irrigation.

Cotton became known as 'white gold' and was a primary crop grown in the newly irrigated lands.

The construction of inefficient canals led to significant water loss through leaks and evaporation.

The reduction in water flow to the Aral Sea disrupted its delicate balance, leading to rapid shrinkage.

The Aral Sea's shrinkage created a positive feedback loop, increasing evaporation rates as it lost water.

By 2014, 95% of the Aral Sea's water volume had evaporated.

Uzbekistan remains a top global cotton producer, with cotton being a significant part of its economy.

The collapse of the Aral Sea led to the demise of the local fishing industry and the loss of livelihoods.

The Aral Sea used to moderate the climate of Central Asia, but its disappearance has led to more extreme temperatures.

The drying up of the Aral Sea has resulted in the creation of a new desert, the Aralkum.

Salty dust storms from the Aralkum desert have contaminated cotton fields and caused health issues.

The overuse of pesticides and fertilizers has polluted the region and affected human health.

The Aral Sea region's demographic changes and water scarcity could lead to future conflicts over water resources.

The melting of glaciers due to less precipitation and dust storms could exacerbate water scarcity.

The potential for conflict in Central Asia over water resources is increasing due to demographic and climate changes.

The Aral Sea's environmental disaster serves as a cautionary tale about the consequences of altering nature.

Transcripts

for most of human history the Errol sea

in Central Asia was the fourth largest

lake in the world at about the same size

as the U.S state of West Virginia

the only three that were larger than it

were Lake Victoria and Africa Lake

Superior and North America and of course

the Caspian Sea directly next door to it

in Eurasia but then in the 1960s a

series of decisions taken by the Soviet

Union began to destroy the Aral Sea and

over the decades ever since it has been

shrinking and shrinking and shrinking at

the current time now in the 2020s what

little remains of the Aral Sea is less

than 10 of its original size back before

the 1960s while more than 95 percent of

its original water volume has simply

disappeared for all intents and purposes

the arrow sea has died and the

relatively sudden disappearance of a

lake this large here has carried with it

profound and unforeseen consequences

that are pushing the entire region of

Central Asia towards Calamity and War it

is without exaggeration the greatest way

the map of the Earth has changed in

recent history and the worst

environmental catastrophe of the past

hundred years and it was entirely 100

engineer to happen by Mankind's own

arrogance

before the 1960s the Aral Sea had

existed here within the dry steps of

Central Asia for thousands of years its

location in nearly the center of the

Eurasian continent meant that it was

located in an area with very little

rainfall and surrounded by deserts with

nearly 1500 kilometers between the lake

and the nearest body of oceanic water in

the Black Sea as a result only about a

fifth of the Aral Seas water supply ever

actually came from rainfall and that

meant that the remaining four-fifths of

its water supply came entirely just from

the two Mighty rivers of Central Asia

that fed it the amudaria that begins in

the pamir mountains of modern day

Tajikistan and the sear Daria beginning

in the tianchon mountains of modern day

Kyrgyzstan naturally being located in

the middle of a desert the arrow sea

suffered from a high rate of evaporation

but for most of its history the Seas

evaporation rate was roughly equal to

the same amount of water that flowed

into it from the rivers and the limited

rainfall a delicate balance of

equilibrium between evaporation and

water inflow existed here for centuries

and thus the season existence was

present across most of human history and

almost always defined local geopolitics

it formed the westernmost Frontier of

the advancing Chinese Tang Dynasty in

the 8th century and became the frontier

of the advancing Russian Empire A

Thousand Years Later by the 20th century

the entirety of Central Asia including

the Aral Sea was dominated by the Soviet

Union in the 1930s Joseph Stalin

introduced a new program in the country

called the Great transformation of

nature involving the Soviets reworking

and reshaping their nature in their

geography to better suit their

Agriculture and Industry by the early

1960s under the Khrushchev

Administration the great transformation

of nature had turned its eye towards

reshaping the geography of Soviet

Central Asia the plan was to build out a

vast system of canals that would divert

water from the amudharya and surdaria

rivers and irrigate large stretches of

new Farmland across the desert steps of

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan new Farms

that would primarily be growing with the

Soviets were calling white gold cotton

and by the 1970s their Central age

project had gotten even more dire in

1973 on the other side of Eurasia Egypt

went to war with Israel during the Yom

Kippur War Egypt lost the war and they

agreed to a peace treaty with Israel

exchanging their own diplomatic

recognition of the Israeli State for the

territorial return of their Sinai

Peninsula and in doing so firmly

switched sides in the Cold War from the

Soviet Camp over to the Western Camp by

1977 the Soviets had quit selling their

weapons to Egypt and the Egyptians

retaliated by suspending all of their

massive cotton exports to the Soviets

and in response to that the Soviets

chose to double down on their

transformation of nature in Central Asia

to more favor their own domestic cotton

production and for a time it actually

worked really well by 1988 the Uzbek SSR

all on its own was the largest exporter

of cotton in the world helped

tremendously by the soviet-made

irrigation canals diverting water from

the AMU and ciradario rivers but the

high price for this abundance of cotton

production in the middle of the desert

was already beginning to become apparent

because as the arrow sea was already

shrinking remember that four-fifths of

the Arrow's water supply came from the

almudaria and Sir Daria Rivers by

diverting water from both of them to

feed new cotton plantations across

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan the Soviets

were depriving that water from reaching

the arrow and the Arrow's delicate

balance of water inflow matching

evaporation rate that had lasted for

centuries was severely disrupted with

the evaporation rate remaining the same

but with the rate of water inflow

severely reduced the Aral Sea began to

quickly die and this wasn't helped by

the fact that the Soviet irrigation

canals were very shodily constructed and

abhorrently inefficient the karakun

canal that was finished in 1988 for

example was carrying up to three cubic

miles of water a year from the almudaria

across 850 miles of the hot and dry

karakum desert in Turkmenistan but

anywhere between 30 and 75 percent of

that water the canal carries is simply

wasted to omnipresent leaks and simple

evaporation as recently as 2012 it was

estimated that only 2 12 percent of the

canal length in Uzbekistan was actually

even waterproofed and so in order to

make up for all these inefficiencies the

uzbeks and turkmen have simply withdrawn

Evermore water from the river to force

more water through the canals and

through the leaks you see under normal

circumstances the AMU and Sir Daria

Rivers would collectively discharge

close to 14 cubic miles of water a year

into the Aral Sea from snowmelt and

Glaciers high up in the tianshan and

pamir mountains to the southeast but

because of the Soviet transformation of

Nature and all the irrigation canals the

water flowing through these Rivers

reaching the Aral Sea quickly dropped by

more than 50 percent to just seven cubic

miles and then because of Egypt's

decision to quit exporting cotton to the

Soviets back in the 70s and the

subsequent Soviet expansion of all the

irrigation canals in Central Asia the

water volume reaching the arrow sea

through these Rivers eventually

plummeted to less than one cubic mile by

the end of the 1980s less than seven

percent of the water Earth that have

been naturally reaching it before the

transformation of nature the Soviets

were effectively sucking these Rivers

dry to irrigate their massive cotton

project and in less than 40 years from

beginning by 1998 the Aral Sea had

already lost 80 percent of its water

volume while its surface area had shrunk

by around 60 percent and by that point

the death of wood little remained of the

sea was almost certain you see as the

sea continued to lose more and more of

water it continued to get shallower thus

the incoming sunlight heated up smaller

volumes of water and thus the water's

surface temperature continued to

increase faster and faster which

increased the rate of evaporation ever

further as the arrow sea continued to

lose water it created this vicious

positive feedback loop where the more

water it lost the more rapidly it would

continue to lose even more by 2014 95

percent of the water volume in the Aral

Sea prior to 1960 had simply evaporated

away to nothing and today little trace

of the former sea remains at all as you

can see in satellite photos like this

one that was just taken in 2021 but what

does continue to remain to the South is

is all of the irrigated Lands still

growing cotton in Uzbekistan and

Turkmenistan Uzbekistan continues to

remain one of the top 10 largest

producers and exporters of cotton in the

world and controls a significant amount

of the worldwide cotton Market

representing around five percent of

global cotton production and around 10

percent of worldwide cotton exports

cotton is therefore uzbekistan's most

significant business accounting for

nearly a fifth of uzbekistan's exports

the industry is state-owned and

dominated by the Uzbek government while

the cotton industry in turmenistan is

smaller but still significant as the

world's 11th largest cotton exporter and

producer but the price that Central Asia

has paid to enable this large cotton

industry to exist namely the destruction

of the Aral Sea is truly unbelievable in

scale and destruction and unprecedented

in human history back in its Heyday the

Errol sea was one of the primary fishing

centers of the Soviet economy 40 000

people were employed in the area's

fishing industry and the arrow produced

about a sixth of all the fish caught

across the entire Soviet Union but by

the 9 1980s as the sea shrank and what

remained of the water rapidly became

saltier the fish all began to die and

disappear already by 1987 commercial

fish harvesting on the Aral Sea had

become Impossible by the 1990s the

salinity levels in what little remained

of the sea had made it impossible for

any fish to survive at all and that

wasn't even the fisherman's only problem

as the sea continued to shrink fishing

towns Villages and ports they used to be

directly on the coastline for centuries

suddenly found themselves dozens to

hundreds of kilometers away from the

actual water the town of Errol was once

home to more than 50 000 people and was

the primary center of the Region's

fishing industry but by 2005 it found

itself more than a hundred kilometers

away from what little remained of the

sea and even after the construction of a

dam that brought some of the water back

it's still to this day finds itself

about 15 kilometers away from the water

consequently the town is withered away

over the decades as tens of thousands of

former residents have been forced to to

move on to Opportunities elsewhere

across the former lake bed you will find

countless fishing boats scattered across

the Wasteland most of which have been

rotting away in the sun now for decades

after having me left abandoned by their

crew the entire fishing industry and

economy around the arrow sea crashed and

died in exchange for the cotton industry

in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to thrive

but that was far from the only severe

consequence while it still existed the

Aral Sea served to greatly moderate the

climate around it in Central Asia cold

and fast winds blowing down from Siberia

in the winter would hit the sea and

soften leading to warmer than usual

temperatures during the winter well

during the summer the sea would soak up

radiation and heat and cool the

temperatures down more than usual thus

the area around the Aral Sea was a lot

more climatically tolerable than

elsewhere across the Central Asian

deserts that would be freezing during

the winter and scorching during the

summer but obviously the arrow sees

destruction also removed these

moderating climate effects and as a

result winds now blow in from Siberia

uninterrupted during the winter and

there is nothing to soak up any of the

heat during the summer consequently the

removal of the Aral Sea has resulted all

on its own in an average temperature

increase between two and four degrees

Celsius during the summer months around

the area where it once existed and

that's not even factoring in any

additional warming coming from global

climate change

further as the lake dried it left behind

a brand new desert in its place the

so-called aralcomm desert and it's

basically just a complete

post-apocalyptic Wasteland you see as

the lake dried up and evaporated away

the water remaining continued getting

saltier and saltier to the point where

by 1998 its salt concentration was 376

grams per liter which is more than 10

times saltier than ocean water is and

more comparable to levels seen in the

infamously salty dead sea between Israel

Palestine and Jordan then as the lake

dried up further more and more of this

salt was left behind on the floor of the

growing aralcomm desert that was

replacing it and without the sea to

moderate the strong winds blowing in

from Siberia to the Northeast the winds

began kicking up the dust and the salt

to generate large-scale salty dust

storms throughout the year and these

dust storms can get huge they're

frequently able to be viewed by

satellites from space and they often

reach widths of 150 to 300 kilometers

across or about the size of New Jersey

and everywhere they go they carry a lot

of salt during the summer months as much

as 30 to 40 percent of these dust storms

volume is just straight up pure salt and

a lot of those Northern and

northeasterly winds blowing down from

Siberia blow all of that salt and dust

across the irrigated cotton fields of

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan which as you

can imagine is not very good for growing

crops now to compensate for this the

uzbeks and turkmen have simply withdrawn

Evermore water from the almudaria to

flush their fields repeatedly and remove

the salt which ultimately means that

crops growing on their farms and

plantations require about four times as

much fresh water to sustain reasonable

growth levels as they need under normal

growing conditions but of course the

problem with constantly having to flush

the soil with water in order to remove

all that salt is not only that it

withdraws ever more water from the

rivers that feed the arrows sea but that

it also washes away the minerals and the

nutrients in the soil that the crops

actually need a crow and so then to

compensate for that the uzbeks and

turkmen have been using an absolutely

insane amount of pesticides and

fertilizer on their desert Cotton Fields

as much as four times the amount that

International Health standards believe

are acceptable and healthy so over the

decades a lot of these overused

pesticides and fertilizers were simply

dumped back into the rivers as runoff

and sent into the arrow sea and so is

the sea shrink these toxins were left

behind on the surface of the new and

growing aralcomm desert as well so now

not only are the dust storms blowing

around a lot of salt but they're also

blowing around a lot of toxins to boots

it probably doesn't also help that

bacteria in the Soviet era there used to

be an island within the Aral Sea known

as volia its location in the middle of

the LLC surrounded by water in the

middle of Central Asia meant that it was

very remote and so the Soviets

constructed a top secret biological

weapons research lab there that lab is

known to have tested numerous biological

agents like Anthrax Bubonic plague and

smallpox among many others and their

safety standards left a lot to be

desired in 1971 an amount of weaponized

smallpox was somehow released from the

lab and infected and killed a few of the

residents in the Lakeside town of Errol

hundreds of people were forcefully

quarantined while tens of thousands more

were vaccinated after the Soviet Union

collapsed the lab was hastily abandoned

by the largely Russian scientists who

worked there in 1992 and then by 2001 as

the arrow sea levels continued to shrink

the island of volia became a peninsula

connected to the mainland several of the

containers within the lab storing

weaponized biological agents were never

properly stored or destroyed in the

Hasty evacuation following the Soviet

Union's collapse and many of them are

known to have developed leaks most

famously in 2002 the United States

intervened to help Uzbekistan with

decontaminating 10 burial sites of

Anthrax on the former Island today the

former island is completely connected to

the rest of the new aralcomm desert and

it's unclear exactly how much of the

biological agents there have gotten into

the Region's already toxic and salty

dust storms regardless the new dust

storms blowing up from the new desert

are known to have caused numerous

negative health effects across the Aral

Sea region toxic chemicals associated

with the overuse of pesticides have been

discovered in the blood and breast milk

of mothers in the area the rate of

infants in the area who were born under

weight or with abnormalities are five

times higher than in Europe the

mortality rate for children younger than

five around the former Aral Sea is now

the highest anywhere in the world

outside of sub-Saharan Africa and there

have been significant increases in the

rates of cancers and lung diseases and

these toxic dusts blow all around the

world erokun desert dust has been

discovered as far away as Norway and

Greenland while toxic pesticides in the

dust have even been discovered

contaminating the blood of penguins in

Antarctica but the worst I side effect

of the arrows these destruction is

something that really hasn't even

happened yet but is almost bound to

happen in the future it will eventually

push Central Asia into one of the

greatest conflicts of the 21st century

you see with the end of the volume of

water in the Aral Sea there's no longer

any significant water evaporation taking

place around it and consequently the

winds blowing in from Siberia that

reached the tianchon mountains and pamir

mountains down in the South and the

southeast are carrying a lot less

moisture than they used to and that

means that there's less precipitation

and snowfall taking place in these

mountains than normally feed the

glaciers that feed the almudarya and

suradaria rivers in the first place and

then to exacerbate that problem the dust

storms now blowing into the mountains

are carrying a lot of salt and dust that

are coating the glaciers and

accelerating their melting process even

further because of these local factors

an additional worldwide climate change

the glaciers in these mountains are Now

Melting at a rate that is 12 times

faster than they were were before the

1960s when the Soviets began the

transformation of nature project and

with less snowfall there's less ability

to replace what is being lost this is

why you pretty often now get spectacular

and viral footage like this clip that

was captured by a British hiker in the

mountains of Kyrgyzstan just a few

months ago back in July of this year

depicting one of these glaciers collapse

now of course these Glaciers are the

primary sources of water that feed the

amudaria and Sir Daria rivers that used

to feed the Aral Sea not to even mention

nearly all of their people's fresh water

supplies

when the glaciers here inevitably melt

away to lumps the little water remaining

flowing into the rivers will present the

nations of Central Asia with potentially

their greatest challenge in history

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan higher up in

the mountains depend on the water

flowing down their steep slopes to

generate nearly their entire supplies of

electricity hydroelectric dams

constructed along the ciradaria provide

more than 90 percent of kyrgyzstan's

electricity while hydroelectric dams

constructed along the almudaria provide

98 of tajikistan's electricity both of

these countries depend on the water

flowing through these Rivers for their

energy Independence and security but as

the water flow inevitably grows less and

less with time they will be incentivized

to construct more dams on their rivers

to capture more of the river's shrinking

energy potential but building more dams

and keeping more of the shrinking water

supply for themselves will inevitably

become an existential threat to the

country's further Downstream the rivers

like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan man

that also depend on the river's Waters

to irrigate their cotton Industries

because without their cotton it's likely

that both of their governments would go

bankrupt and that's still not to even

mention that ever since the

transformation of nature began here in

the 1960s the Region's demographics have

radically changed 60 years ago back in

1960 Central Asia Only Had a combined

population of about 24 million people

but today there are three times as many

people around at about 75 million and

the country that has contributed the

most towards that overall growth is

Uzbekistan their population has grown by

four-fold over the past 60 years and

there are now roughly as many uzbeks in

Central Asia as all the other ethnic

groups there combined the kazakhs the

kiraj the tajiks and the turkmen

consequently the human demand for water

in Central Asia is multiple times higher

today than it was before the death of

the Aral Sea and it is the uzbeks who

have the strongest single demand the

political borders of all the countries

in Centralia Asia were largely drawn up

by Joseph Stalin nearly a century ago in

order to ensure maximum conflict between

them were they ever to become

independent in the future as they did in

1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed all

of the Region's ethnicities are mixed up

across each other's borders most

infamously evidenced by the Soaps

District found here two chunks of

Uzbekistan that are completely

surrounded by Kyrgyzstan and entirely

populated by ethnic to Geeks as a

consequence of these kinds of soviet-era

policies and tactics there are millions

of uzbeks who live just outside of the

borders of Uzbekistan the state across

regions of Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan Afghanistan and Kazakhstan as

the supply of Central Asia's water in

its two primary Rivers dries up there

will simply not be enough water to

supply everybody's needs and meet

everybody's security and Uzbekistan will

be the most geopolitically well placed

to outmaneuver and dominate the others

in order to ensure that they he will be

the ones to control whatever remains of

the water the fragano valley here is the

population core of Central Asia it is

where the sear Daria River begins

effectively making the valley a lush

Oasis in the middle of the otherwise

empty desert a quarter of Central Asia's

population lives within this Valley and

it is also precisely where the political

borders of Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan and

Tajikistan all converge to clash the

neck of Tajikistan that stretches up

into the valley in the north is

primarily inhabited by ethnic uzbeks and

yet it largely serves to divide

Uzbekistan the state into two distinct

halves separating their control in the

Valley from the rest of the country

under a pretext of ethnic Liberation

like the Russians have been

experimenting with in Ukraine it's no

longer inconceivable that Uzbekistan

could one day use this as their Casas

ballet as well to attack and invade

Tajikistan at some point in the future

in order to not only secure more of the

Fertile fergana Valley but if they go

for an all-out conquest of Tajikistan

they they can secure the headwaters of

the almudaria as well in order to ensure

their continued access to whatever

remains of the river's depleted water

supplies and at the same time

Turkmenistan continues to divert

enormous volumes of water away from the

almudaria river through their

inefficient CARICOM Canal to irrigate

their own Cotton Fields however nearly

600 000 uzbeks live within Turkmenistan

just across the border from present day

Uzbekistan and they all happen to be

located almost directly adjacent to the

start of the karakum canal that diverts

all of that water away from the

almudaria and away from Uzbekistan if

Uzbekistan utilizes the pretext of

ethnonationalist unification to go to

war with Tajikistan in order to secure

the headwaters of the omudaria river

then it's also conceivable that they

would use the exact same pretext to also

go to war with Turkmenistan in order to

secure and destroy the karakum canal

thus ensuring their own complete control

over the entire River remaining water

supply under that scenario Turkmenistan

will almost certainly collapse as a

state because the CARICOM Canal is where

Turkmenistan still acquires the vast

majority of their own fresh water

supplies for their own people and cotton

industry but on paper Uzbekistan has got

the numbers and the demographic odds on

its side to win this future conflict and

with Russia facing demographic and

Military catastrophe of their own in

Ukraine it is now unlikely that Moscow

would be capable of fending off

uzbekistan's attacks on its supposed

allies Tajikistan in Kyrgyzstan are

theoretically members of the csto

military Alliance essentially Russia's

version of NATO meaning that they could

each appeal to Russia for military

assistance wuru Uzbekistan ever to go on

the offensive but in September of 2022

Azerbaijan attacked Armenia another csto

member State who appealed to the

alliance for support and Russia refused

because they're too busy getting wrecked

in Ukraine Russia is a distracted and

dying Empire and they would likely

possess little ability or will to

interfere with the worsening

geopolitical situation to their South in

Central Asia that potentially leaves

China to intervene but who knows how

willing they would even be to do so with

their own internal concerns in xinjiang

and Tibet zero kovid and foreign policy

objectives more closely focused on

Taiwan regardless of how the events play

out Central Asia is effectively a powder

cake waiting to blow and if I were you I

would be paying a lot closer attention

to what's going on there and

specifically what is happening in

Uzbekistan it may very well become the

country that makes the most headlines

later on this decade ultimately in the

end the Soviet great transformation of

nature certainly worked in the sense

that it did indeed greatly transform the

nature and the environment of Central

Asia forever it just wasn't in the way

that they had hoped their quest to ban

nature to the will of man here is

perhaps one of the greatest lessons to

to face Humanity over its entire

existence when we attempt to play God

and change the way the earth works it's

just like playing with a monkey's paw

and asking it for a wish your wish may

be granted but not at all in the way

that you expect it to be the

environmental curse that the Aral sees

absence has established across Central

Asia will be with us all for a very long

time and the worst of its consequences

have still yet to even manifest

themselves for whenever man attempts to

fight against nature nature will always

win eventually because Nature has

billions of years longer than we've got

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