Andrew Marr's brutal analysis of Liz Truss and the Tories | LBC

Summary

The transcript discusses the current challenges faced by the UK's Prime Minister and the Conservative Party. It highlights the sense of disillusionment within the party, with members sharing critical messages and expressing concerns about the government's direction, particularly in relation to economic policies and the handling of recent events. The conversation suggests that the party's internal divisions and lack of a clear majority may lead to significant political upheaval, with some drawing parallels to past political crises. The importance of effective communication and understanding the broader political landscape is emphasized to address these issues.

Takeaways

• 🔍 A pervasive sense of unease and uncertainty is palpable, likened to the smell of burning rubber, affecting various sectors including coffee bars and social atmospheres.
• 💭 There are concerns about the potential unraveling of major policies and the impact this could have on society, such as benefit cuts and environmental changes.
• 🔄 The script mentions a series of U-turns in policy, hinting at a lack of direction and a possible loss of parliamentary majority for the current agenda.
• 🗣️ Whispers of discontent within the party are evident, with members sharing critical messages and expressing concerns about the party's direction.
• 📉 The economic implications of recent policies are a significant worry, with predictions of increased costs for average families, such as an extra £1,500 on mortgages.
• 🌪️ Phrases like 'fatal tailspin', 'stench of death', and 'death spiral' are being used by level-headed individuals to describe the current situation.
• 👀 There is a suggestion that the value of a previous leader is becoming apparent due to their ability to balance different factions within the party.
• 🤔 The script ponders the root cause of the current issues, suggesting that the Conservative Party's struggle with the concept of Brexit may have led to internal divisions and a shift in direction.
• 📈 The potential for economic recovery is acknowledged, but it is questioned whether this would be enough to change the public's perception of the current administration.
• 📊 The rising cost of mortgages is compared to the negative equity issues of the past, indicating a possible financial crisis on the horizon.
• 🚨 The importance of learning from recent missteps in communication and policy handling is emphasized for the Prime Minister's team to maintain trust and stability.

Q & A

What is the main issue being discussed in the transcript?

The main issue discussed is the political turmoil within a party, specifically focusing on the challenges faced by the Prime Minister due to a lack of parliamentary majority and the subsequent policy U-turns.

What is the metaphor used to describe the current situation in the party?

The metaphor used is the 'stench of death' and 'death spiral', indicating a rapidly deteriorating situation within the party.

What are some of the specific policy areas mentioned as being problematic?

The policy areas mentioned include benefit cuts, environmental changes, planning, and fracking.

How is the Prime Minister's growth agenda perceived within the party?

The Prime Minister's growth agenda is perceived as problematic because she lacks a parliamentary majority to support it.

What is the significance of the 'Omnishambles budget of 2012' mentioned in the transcript?

The 'Omnishambles budget of 2012' is used as a historical reference point to illustrate a previous instance of political chaos and disarray within the party.

What is the comparison made between the current situation and the John Major administration?

The comparison made is that while John Major faced significant challenges, including the Maastricht Treaty rebellion, the current situation may be worse due to the lack of support for the Prime Minister within the Parliamentary party.

What is the term used to describe the potential upcoming crisis with mortgages?

The term used is 'negative equity', which refers to a situation where people's houses are worth less than their mortgages.

What advice is given to the Prime Minister's communications team?

The advice given is that they need to learn from the mishandling of the mini-budget and U-turns, and understand politics better by preparing the ground and thinking ahead to avoid losing trust.

What is the concern about the Prime Minister being imposed by the party members on the Parliamentary party?

The concern is that the Prime Minister may not have the support of the Parliamentary party, which could lead to further instability and potential leadership challenges.

What is the historical context of 'taking soundings' within the party mentioned in the transcript?

'Taking soundings' refers to an old practice within the party where they would gauge the level of support for a leader before potentially initiating a leadership contest.

What is the overall sentiment being expressed about the party's current state?

The overall sentiment is one of concern and uncertainty, with expressions of 'Hollow laughter' and 'Gallows humor' indicating a grim outlook on the situation.

Outlines

00:00

🚨 Political Turmoil and Economic Concerns

The paragraph discusses the current political and economic challenges faced by the government. It highlights the sense of unease and the 'stench of burning rubber' from a recent U-turn in policy, which has caused widespread discontent among the public and within the party itself. The speaker mentions various issues such as benefit cuts, environmental changes, and fracking, which are all contributing to a perceived 'great unraveling.' The lack of a parliamentary majority for the Prime Minister's agenda is emphasized, and the conference is described as dissolving in a 'fatal tailspin.' The conversation also touches on the absence of real opponents within the party and the potential long-term impact of the current policies, including the extra financial burden on families due to the mini budget. The comparison with the 2012 'omnishambles' budget and the value of a unifying party leader like Boris Johnson is also made, with a reflection on the Conservative Party's struggle to define Brexit and its implications for the country's direction.

05:00

🎪 Leadership Contests and Party Dynamics

This paragraph delves into the dynamics within the party and the potential for a leadership contest. It discusses the concept of 'taking soundings,' a method by which the party can gauge support for its leaders. The speaker notes the unhappiness within the party and the possibility of a change in leadership if the current Prime Minister does not have the backing of the Parliamentary party. The paragraph also reflects on the challenges faced by previous administrations, drawing parallels with the era of John Major and the issues of negative equity during his time. The speaker suggests that the current situation may lead to a similar scenario, with rising mortgage costs potentially causing a new form of 'equity gap.' The paragraph concludes with a call for the Prime Minister's team to learn from recent missteps and to understand the importance of politics and preparation in order to maintain trust and avoid a full leadership contest.

Keywords

💡burning rubber

The term 'burning rubber' typically refers to the smell produced when tires are rapidly accelerated or spun, often used metaphorically to describe a hasty or forceful action. In the context of the script, it symbolizes a sudden and disruptive change, like the screeching U-turn mentioned, which has left a negative impact on the surrounding environment, akin to the political and economic upheaval being discussed.

💡U-turn

A 'U-turn' in this context refers to a complete reversal of policy or direction, often with little to no warning. It is used to describe a sudden change that can cause confusion and instability. The script uses this term to discuss the political maneuvers and policy shifts that are causing distress and uncertainty among various sectors.

💡fracking

Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a method of extracting natural gas and oil from deep underground by breaking apart rock formations with high-pressure water and chemicals. It is a controversial practice due to its potential environmental impacts. In the script, fracking is mentioned as one of the areas where there might be policy U-turns or changes, indicating ongoing debates and concerns about its sustainability and effects on the environment.

💡growth agenda

A 'growth agenda' refers to a set of policies and strategies aimed at promoting economic expansion and development. It typically includes measures to stimulate investment, job creation, and overall prosperity. In the script, the growth agenda is associated with the Prime Minister's plans for the economy, but the lack of a parliamentary majority poses challenges to its implementation.

💡parliamentary majority

A 'parliamentary majority' is when a political party or coalition of parties holds more than half of the seats in a legislative body, allowing it to pass laws and set policy direction without needing the support of other parties. The script discusses the challenges faced by the Prime Minister due to the lack of a parliamentary majority, which hinders the execution of her policies.

💡WhatsApp messages

WhatsApp messages refer to the communication taking place through WhatsApp, a popular messaging app. In the script, it is mentioned to illustrate how members of the party are sharing information and potentially expressing concerns or dissent among themselves, away from public scrutiny.

💡omnishambles

The term 'omnishambles' is a portmanteau of 'omni-' and 'shambles', meaning a comprehensive or widespread disaster or mess. It is used to describe a situation where everything that could go wrong is going wrong. In the script, it is used to characterize the chaotic and problematic state of the budget and the government's handling of various issues.

💡fatal tailspin

A 'fatal tailspin' is a term used to describe a situation that is rapidly deteriorating and is likely to lead to a disastrous end or failure. It is often used in the context of aviation when a plane enters a spin from which it cannot recover. In the script, this term is used to convey the sense of impending doom or failure of the government's policies and the overall political situation.

💡death spiral

A 'death spiral' is a term used to describe a situation where a series of events leads to an outcome that causes further events in the same direction, leading to a continuous and accelerating decline. It is often used in economics, technology, or politics to describe a self-reinforcing negative cycle. In the script, the term is used to discuss the perceived downward trajectory of the party and government, suggesting that each new problem exacerbates the existing issues.

💡Singapore on Thames

The phrase 'Singapore on Thames' is a metaphorical reference to the vision of turning Britain into a free-market, business-friendly economy similar to that of Singapore, with London being the 'Thames' equivalent of the Singapore River. It suggests a model of economic liberalization and deregulation. In the script, this concept is mentioned to illustrate the aspirations of a minority within the Conservative Party who view Brexit as an opportunity for radical economic change.

💡Brexit

Brexit refers to the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union, a process that has had significant political, economic, and social implications. In the script, Brexit is discussed as a catalyst for the internal divisions within the Conservative Party and the broader uncertainty it has caused.

Highlights

The pervasive smell of burning rubber as a metaphor for the current political situation.

The impact of a screeching U-turn on local businesses, such as coffee bars.

Concerns about the potential unraveling of various areas, including benefit cuts and environmental changes.

The lack of a parliamentary majority for the Prime Minister's growth agenda.

The stench around the party and the sharing of WhatsApp messages among long-standing members.

The comparison of the current situation to the 2012 omnishambles budget.

The use of phrases like 'fatal tailspin', 'stench of death', and 'death spiral' in describing the conference.

The absence of real opponents within the party, choosing to stay away from the conference.

The difficulty in finding an economist who supports the current government's position.

The potential for the economy to show signs of life and growth in the future, despite current challenges.

The reassessment of Boris Johnson's balance of the two sides of the party and his role as a front man.

The outcome of Brexit being influenced by a small group with a radical vision for Britain.

The comparison of the current situation to John Major's administration, particularly regarding the Maastricht Treaty rebellion.

The potential for a situation similar to the negative equity crisis of the past, with rising mortgage costs.

The importance of the Prime Minister's communications team learning from recent mishandlings.

The possibility of avoiding a full leadership contest through preemptive soundings within the party.

The hollow laughter and gallows humor surrounding the political discussions in Birmingham.

The examination of the problem of imposing a Prime Minister by party members on a Parliamentary party that does not support her.

Transcripts

um the smell of burning rubber from that

screeching U-turn the other night has

now has now disseminated and it is

choking everybody around the bars and

cutting coffee bars here Nick and

because it's not just that the real

question is is this the beginning of the

great unraveling of much more and on

almost every area that you look at

whether it's benefit cuts that you were

talking with the Prime Minister about or

whether it's environmental changes

whether it's planning whether it's

fracking you are seeing the beginnings

of u-turns and the reason is that she

has got her big agenda she's got her big

growth agenda what she doesn't have it

appears is a parliamentary majority for

it it's beginning to unravel do you get

a sort of stench around the party around

the conference as you pick up with

presumably people you've known for 20 30

years oh absolutely and people are

sharing WhatsApp messages from other

members of the party and and so on I

can't really repeat

um on morning Wireless what people are

saying without breaking into fluent

Anglo-Saxon which I'm not going to do

but I remember the remember the Omni

shambles budget of 2012 that was a word

that came into the Lexicon I think from

the thick of it and people started

talking about omnish animals this is a

kind of omni shamles in multiple

different directions it's absolutely

extraordinary I have never seen a

conference dissolve quite like this one

it's a fatal tailspin then is it I think

it feels fatal

um certainly phrases like the stench of

death and death spiral and death Zoom

are being talked about again and again

and again by level-headed people and

don't forget the real opponents of Liz

dross in the conservative party aren't

even here they've stayed away

of course if growth if growth comes

about then the Prime Minister quasi

quasan would say we told you all along

can we just just write that off

certainly you have to work hard to find

an economist who supports their position

it is still just possible that you know

in six months time they're still there

and the economy is starting to show

signs of life and growing we've all got

short memories in politics and people

may may look back and listen yeah that

was Birmingham was pretty rough but it's

in the past I don't think that's the

case for lots of very very concrete

reasons uh you know quasiquarting talked

about a little turbulence Q laughter in

the hall about his his mini budget

somebody was tweeting today that that

little turbulence is going to cost lots

of ordinary families average families 1

500 pounds extra on their mortgages in

the year ahead they're not going to

forget that reflect on this somebody

quite senior told me we're starting to

see the value of Boris don't laugh we're

starting to see the value of Boris

Johnson because he did actually balance

the two sides of the party he was an

astonishing front man and all the

offstage feuding and fighting could sort

of be forgotten because you go here

comes big Bluff boys is there some truth

there is actually some truth in that I

would go a bit further I would say that

a lot of what we're seeing today is the

outcome not of brexit itself but of the

fact the conservative party couldn't

work out quite what brexit was for what

it meant for most people it meant as it

were a reassertion of sovereignty going

a bit back to the old days things as

they were a little bit nostalgic I think

most Tory MPS took that kind of view but

there was always a small group for whom

it was a radical excuse to Veer off in a

totally different direction this was uh

in the in the Californian phrase move

fast and break things brexit it was you

know turn Britain into a much more

Americanized all the markets roaring

ahead unfamiliar fast-moving kind of

country so-called Singapore on Thames

they were always a small minority and

now they're in charge of the party a

quite recent history and I have to say I

wasn't working in the country the time I

was overseas but is this akin to John

Major the dying days of the major

Administration Edition

um I'm tempted to say that John major

and the cabinet around John Major were

more substantial John Major had been a

very successful Rising Minister for a

long time in office he was well known in

the country and he was a calming

influence he was facing a particularly

ferocious back bench Rebellion over the

maastrich treaty and all of that black

Wednesday and and more what where I

think there is a really interesting

parallel is in the so-called Equity uh

problem the equity Gap where we had

negative equity if you remember lots of

people's houses were suddenly worth less

than their mortgages and I can see

something ahead a little bit like that

when it comes to the rising cost of

mortgages right now but you know major

carried on for quite a long time and he

did he always did better in the

elections Than People expected finally

as they depart Birmingham what does the

Prime Minister possibly more what to her

what's called com's team her

Communications team her advice what do

they need to learn from how the mini

budget was handled how the U-turn was

handled how Birmingham has been handled

standard they need to learn something

called politics they need to think ahead

they need to they need to prepare the

ground what they need to do now is by

themselves time because this could be

the end of this trust quite quickly if

she doesn't if she doesn't really get a

thickness that you think they do her in

prior to the election that they're

talking about it I mean all around this

place people are talking about it is

there some way of avoiding a full

leadership contest just going in it was

an old phrase they used to hear in back

in the McMillan era the party has been

taking soundings and somebody says to me

taking soundings is coming back we can

go in and say to I'm terribly sorry if

owns we've been taking soundings and you

don't have the support of the party and

it appears that sir Herbert oat cake is

the is the universal size of the pie and

the herbado cake becomes uh party it

does it does seem mad and it is mad but

nonetheless so great is the unhappiness

that that is the kind of conversation

crackling around right you were talking

about the laughter behind you I think

it's Hollow laughter it's Hollow

laughter Gallows humor is what's going

all around us what are you examining

tonight what aspects are you looking at

tonight Andrew have you worked it out I

want to look at uh the question of the

real problem here being possibly the uh

apparent idiocy really of imposing a

prime minister by the party members on

the Parliamentary party who don't

support her in other words her problem

is in the Parliamentary party and as we

all return to Westminster next week it's

going to get worse not better and it's

because she doesn't have enough MPS

behind her and it's it is slightly

Bonkers for party members to impose on

MPS somebody they don't didn't really

want

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