A Once in a Lifetime Financial Event Is Here
Summary
TLDRTom Lee assures investors of a 100% success rate in the stock market following a Fed rate cut in a non-recessionary economy. He warns of a turbulent market in the short term, advising against selling out. Lee predicts a strong rally towards the end of the year, with an average market increase of 15.4% within 12 months post rate cut. He emphasizes the importance of staying invested in quality companies like Nvidia and Apple, and advises against market timing due to its unpredictability.
Takeaways
- 📈 Tom believes the investment has a 100% success rate historically and advises not to miss out on it.
- 🚫 The speaker warns against taking immediate actions like buying or selling, emphasizing the importance of listening first.
- ⚠️ Tom is considered important for retail investors as he provides insights into market volatility and strategies for the next few months.
- 📉 The speaker anticipates a turbulent market in the short term, driven by factors like election uncertainty and smart money tactics.
- 💹 Historically, the stock market has shown positive returns when the Fed cuts rates in a non-recessionary economy.
- 🔍 The upcoming Fed meeting is highlighted as a key event that could influence market sentiment, with expectations of rate cuts.
- 📊 The speaker suggests that the market's reaction to the Fed's actions will be influenced by the messaging and semantics used by Fed officials.
- 🛑 The advice is to stay invested and not to be swayed by short-term market turbulence, which is a normal part of investing.
- 💼 The speaker recommends maintaining a balanced portfolio, including strong companies like Nvidia and Apple, through market cycles.
- 📉 Tom expects a challenging period ahead, particularly in the short term, but with a positive outlook for the market post-election and into 2024.
Q & A
What does Tomley claim about the success rate of the investment?
-Tomley claims that this investment has a 100% success rate in the past, meaning it has never failed in history.
What is the primary warning Tomley issues to investors?
-Tomley warns investors about a turbulent market environment in the next few weeks, which is likely designed by smart money to scare individual investors into selling before the market rallies.
What effect does Tomley predict the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts will have on the market?
-Tomley predicts that once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates in a non-recession economy, the stock market will experience positive returns over the next 3, 6, 9, and 12 months.
Why does Tomley refer to the next few weeks as a 'head fake'?
-Tomley refers to the next few weeks as a 'head fake' because he believes that the volatility and turbulence are temporary and designed to scare investors into selling before the market spikes up.
What metaphor does Tomley use to describe the upcoming market turbulence?
-Tomley uses the metaphor of turbulence on a plane, explaining that while it will be uncomfortable, it won’t cause harm as long as investors stay calm and don’t make rash decisions.
What is the significance of the Federal Reserve’s messaging in the rate cuts, according to Tomley?
-Tomley emphasizes that the Federal Reserve’s messaging, particularly how they signal the end of inflation-fighting and the start of a rate-cutting cycle, is crucial for influencing positive stock market reactions.
What advice does Tomley give regarding small-cap stocks?
-Tomley suggests that small-cap stocks could perform very well over the next 12 months, but he advises investors not to sell major tech stocks like Nvidia or Tesla to go all-in on small-caps.
How does Tomley recommend investors approach the market during this turbulent period?
-Tomley advises against trying to time the market, as the short-term volatility is unpredictable. He encourages investors to stay in the market and focus on long-term gains.
What is the projected market performance after the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut?
-Tomley projects that after the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, the market will yield an average return of 15.4% over the next 12 months, assuming the economy is not in a recession.
What does Tomley say about the market’s reaction in the first week after a rate cut?
-Tomley notes that the first week after a rate cut is typically the worst week of the year for the market, due to misdirection and confusion caused by market forces.
Outlines
📈 Market Analysis and Tom Lee's Investment Insights
The speaker emphasizes the importance of Tom Lee's investment advice, highlighting the 100% success rate of a particular investment strategy. They stress the need to focus on the bottom line first, then analyze the market. The speaker plans to share Tom Lee's clip, followed by their own analysis and strategy for the next 3, 6, and 12 months. The key message is to beware of market turbulence caused by 'smart money' trying to scare individual investors into selling before a market upturn. The speaker asserts that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in a non-recession economy have historically led to positive stock market returns within a year, suggesting that investors should stay confident despite short-term discomfort.
✈️ Navigating Market Turbulence with Tom Lee's Guidance
The speaker uses the metaphor of airplane turbulence to illustrate the current market situation, advising investors to stay calm and not panic sell during market fluctuations. They discuss the Federal Reserve's impending rate cuts and the historical positive returns following such cuts in a non-recessionary economy. The speaker also touches on the importance of the Fed's messaging and how it will impact market sentiment. They caution against trying to time the market and emphasize the long-term strength of certain companies like Nvidia and Apple. The speaker concludes by offering a discounted rate to their Academy, tying it to the recent performance of the stock market.
📉 Preparing for Market Volatility and Economic Fundamentals
The speaker discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the potential market reactions to rate cuts. They emphasize that the market's short-term volatility is normal and part of investing. The speaker also addresses the broader economic indicators, such as unemployment rates, GDP, and inflation, which suggest a healthy economy despite some signs of consumer weakness. They reiterate Tom Lee's prediction of a market rally by the end of 2024 if the economy avoids recession, citing historical averages of market performance post-rate cut. The speaker advises against market timing and highlights the importance of understanding and accepting market turbulence as part of the investment process.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Investment Success Rate
💡Smart Money
💡Market Turbulence
💡Rate Cuts
💡Seasonality
💡Election Uncertainty
💡Head Fake
💡Non-Recessionary Economy
💡Small Caps
💡Market Timing
💡Macro Data
Highlights
Tomley claims the investment has a 100% success rate and has never failed in history.
The importance of Tomley's insights for retail investors, as he provides a warning about market volatility.
Smart money may use market seasonality and election uncertainty to create fear among individual investors.
The Federal Reserve is starting to cut rates, which historically has not resulted in stock market losses in the next 12 months.
The speaker shares historical data showing positive stock market performance after rate cuts in a non-recession economy.
The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to provide market confidence with expected rate cuts.
The speaker advises against trying to time the market based on short-term volatility.
Tomley metaphorically compares market turbulence to turbulence on a plane, emphasizing the importance of staying invested.
The message from the Fed is crucial for the market's understanding of the economic direction.
The stock market is said to be 6 to 12 months ahead of the actual economy, indicating future trends.
Tomley almost guarantees a turbulent September but advises against selling out and buying back in later.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of owning the best companies in the most important themes, like Nvidia and Apple.
Tomley suggests that small-cap stocks could do very well in the next 12 months.
The speaker offers a special deal on his Academy at a discounted price to celebrate a company's new price target.
The speaker discusses the potential market reactions to the Fed's decision on rate cuts.
Fundamentals are expected to win in the long term, with the economy and stock market performing well if not in recession.
The speaker highlights the statistical fact that the stock market experiences significant drops but is part of the normal cycle.
Tomley's bottom line is that despite challenges, the market is expected to rally by the end of 2024 if the economy is not in recession.
Transcripts
Tomley just said that this investment
has a 100% success rate literally that
this investment has never failed in
history that's something you don't want
to miss out on now look in all of my
videos the rule is the same bottom line
first then the analysis so I'm going to
give away the bottom line first then
I'll show you the clip of Tom Le saying
what he said then I'll share with you my
analysis and my strategy for the next 3
6 and 12 months in the market given what
we just learned now look the bottom line
comes after this short message don't
click nothing don't smash nothing don't
buy nothing just listen now look the
bottom line Tom is very important for R
investors more than so-called smart
money because he's basically issuing to
you a warning giving away the you know
the most known secret in the industry
saying look this volatile environment
this turbulent environment you're going
to experience in the next few weeks it's
going to be painful it's going to be
uncomfortable and a lot of it is going
to be design by the smart money
so-called smart money to weed out and
get the individual investors to get
scared and sell out before the market
spikes up they're going to use the
seasonality of the market they're going
to use the election uncertainty to
actually get the Flames higher so you
will get scared and sell out because
what they don't want you to understand
is that the FED is starting to cut rates
and whenever the FED has started to cut
rates and went into a cutting cyle cycle
in a non recession economy which is what
we have today 100% of the time you
didn't lose money in the stock market
over the next 12 months not also the
next N9 months 6 months and 3 months
every single stop in that year has been
positive I'll share with you the numbers
in a second but basically Tomley is
saying Beware of the head fake that is
the next few weeks it's going to be very
uncomfortable but it's going to be just
a head fake before the market rallies
towards November December do not be
fooled do not be gaslighted by
mainstream media and smart money I mean
I think if viewers are sort of confused
I think that's what the next 8 weeks are
going to be like into election day I I
think it's a very challenging period
because no one can have conviction until
they really know who's in the white
house but uh there are some positive
sort of supports coming into play and
next week is the Fed meeting um we know
the FED is going to make some cuts and
with the inflation data being supportive
and the labor markets needing some
support I I think it's going to give the
in the market some confidence a 25 or 50
has both hawkish or doish implications
right so I think it's ultimately WEA fed
share Powell comes across as this is the
start of a cycle where they're confident
that we're moving back towards neutral
and whatever number they make is
actually quite dovish and positive
markets perspective I think that they'd
like to see the FED sort of acknowledge
that inflation is moving back as a
secondary concern and labor market
supporting labor markets while not in a
recession is incredibly important I
think in the near term we're losing
visibility and you know when when you
don't have visibility people get scared
and they sit on their hands but over the
next 12 months I think investors should
be pretty confident when the FED has cut
rates while in a soft Landing or no
Landing the win ratio or Market's higher
6 months 9 months 12 months later Almost
100% and we also know postelection
markets almost always rally so the
November December looks pretty good and
I think the policies of both candidates
is good enough for markets to do well
next year so I I I think we might have
turbulence now but it it looks pretty
good after that I think you you still
always want to own the best companies in
the most important themes I mean that's
Nvidia and that's Apple
um and they're going to really work over
any cycle but when the market begins to
believe the FED is going
to move rates back towards neutral and
that's both cost of money mortgages auto
loan
rates you know these are really big
Tailwinds for cyclical stocks and small
caps in particular so I think that's why
I'd still want to make a very educated
bet with high probability that small cap
could do very well the next 12 months
and even between now and your end now
what Tom essentially is saying here is
saying look folks the next few weeks are
going to be like turbulence on a plane
if you have your seat belt on and you
understand that no plane in history has
went down because of turbulence you're
not going to get hurt all it's going to
be is uncomfortable and unpleasant but
if you're working around the galley un
seat belted you're going to be flung
into the ceiling and you get badly badly
hurt understand the turbulent is coming
wear your seat buil mentally emotionally
and then prepare for it and understand
that the plane is not crashing there's
no point in jumping out of the plane now
this is a very important metaphor to
understand what's actually going on in
the market right now we will have a lot
of uncertainty a lot of turbulence but
at the end of the day the Federal
Reserve is about to start a rate cutting
cycle in a non recessionary economy so
basically this means that once the stock
market realizes and believes and
understands that the Federal Reserve is
serious about cutting rates and this
rate cutting cycle is going to happen in
a non recessionary economy the stock
market will price in what happened in
history in every single time this
scenario came up and then every single
time that this scenario has happened the
stock market gave us positive returns in
3 6 9 and 12 months after the First Rate
cut it's not about the 25 points the 50
basis points it's not about that it's
about a signal that the FED is going to
send Bend to the mainstream media which
is going to convey it to the public
which then will translate to price
action in the stock market telling
everybody hey folks we are now no longer
fighting inflation the restrictions are
over and we're heading down to
3% that's the message the FED has to
send whether they do it with a 25 basis
points cut or 50 basis point cuts out of
the gate it doesn't matter what matters
is this message comes out and the FED
does not screw it up and the language
and the semantics they use to explain
what just happened when drum PA will
speak every single word of his will be
important to convey that message it's
very important think about it like the
bouncer in the club if the bouncer in
the club cares itself in the fashion
that nobody wants to go Toe to Toe with
that guy nobody wants to fight that guy
he's scary right if he holds himself up
in that standard he's never going to be
in a single fight but if he behaves like
a little noodle he's going to be
challenge so the fed's job right now is
to be a bouncer and to show the market
hey everything is okay the economy is
fine we're no longer fighting inflation
we're heading to 3% that will signal to
the stock market to price that as a
future pricing mechanism the stock
market is always 6 to 12 months ahead of
the actual economy and if that's the
case the stock market is going to be in
a positive trend for the next 12 months
and before everybody starts buying new
cars and new houses you know new Lambos
hold on a second when he says 100% he
doesn't mean 100% % literally he means
100% when the economy is good there is
no guarantees that the economy is good
we think it's good we think we're not a
recession but usually we find out that a
recession happened way after the fact so
that's all assuming the economy is not
currently in a recession but yeah
officially right now we're not in
recession GDP numbers are good
unemployment is coming down inflation is
coming down consumer spending is good so
on paper we should be good but in like
there's no guarantees now another thing
that Tomley is almost guaranteeing is
saying look whatever happens the next
few weeks will be turbulent September
isn't going to be great no matter how
you spend this so prepare for a very bad
September now do I think that you should
sell out and buy later in October
November no and I'll tell you why
because in the short term there's no way
to know how the market is going to swing
the market can stay crazy and irrational
way longer than you can stay solvent and
to try and time the market and get it
perfectly the bottom and the top it's a
futile effort that doesn't work and it's
a really bad habit to build so don't be
timing the market because of something
that Tom has said now he also says look
I know I spoke a lot about small caps
and we think that small caps is the next
best thing since sliced bread I totally
understand it but he also says look
folks we don't mean you should sell your
Nvidia and your Tesla and all your great
stocks and your paler you definitely
want to own these regardless don't be
going all in on iwm selling out of your
your entire portfolio that's not what I
meant you see a lot of these great
companies that's exactly what Tom Le
also said here these great companies
long term are unbeatable what you want
to be is in the market look at paler
paler was at $10 when it DPO then it
went up to $35 then it went down to $6
went up again right now to $37 so this
crazy Riot is going to happen do you
really think you're that good to time it
perfectly the shortterm volatility in
the market it makes no sense to jump in
and out in in and out trying to time
this it is a futile stupid exercise and
if you play stupid games you will win I
guarantee you that stupid prizes now
talking about not stupid prizes paler
has hit $36 and I want to offer you
something cool since paler is currently
at $36 I'm going to give you access to
my Academy which is usually $99 per
month at $36 right now for the next 24
hours to celebrate piner's new price
Target 36 bucks right now for the next
24 hours pm.com NES join the academy
test it out try out see if it's for you
we actually have our upcoming meeting
this Thursday we learned about how to do
DCA how to do modeling like DCF when to
sell a stock when to buy a stock how to
evaluate stocks all that good stuff and
look volatility isn't going to go away
it's even going to happen this week look
at tomorrow tomorrow the FED might shock
the world tomorrow 2 pm the FED will
announce how much they're cutting and
right now everybody pricing in 50 basis
points look at the FED CME watch tool
now imagine the FED comes out and does a
25 basis point cut and that kind of
decision might send the market actually
tumbling down or maybe up who knows
maybe Jerome PO says something crazy
that does the same thing but eventually
what Tom Lee is saying in this video and
I could not agree more the fundamentals
will win which basically means economy
not bad economy getting more money
cheaper money economy good stock market
good all of this whatever joh PO said
how much Cuts they've done this month or
next month all of this is irrelevant
because longterm we're talking about a
process that's a positive process for
the economy and the stock market
assuming we're not already in a
recession and whatever happens the
market is never going to feel smooth
I've told you about this multiple times
before we have 5% drops in the S&P 500
three times per year we have 10% drops
once per year and every three years we
have a 15% drop look at the data right
now we just came off of an8 and a half%
drop and a 4.3% drop just in the last
few weeks this is insane we had a really
smooth first half with no turbulence and
now we're basically making up for lost
time it just means that you cannot be in
the stock market without understanding
the turbulence is part of the game good
news it's normal bad news it's normal
it's nothing to get excited about when
the market has the first half as strong
as the first half we had this year the
second half is a 10% half with 11 and 12
November and December being the best
month and August and September being the
worst it's a statistical fact now
whatever the outcome is nobody knows
some people say well Tom the credit card
delinquency numbers are up you know the
prices are up people are struggling
there's a lot of consumer weakness
that's hidden beyond the data and yes I
totally understand but on the other hand
you can't ignore macro data unemployment
is coming down below 4.5% GDP is a 3%
and inflation is a 2.5% it's very hard
to say that in this environment we're
going to cook up a recession now nobody
knows for sure but there's definitely
clear strong arguments in both ways and
since we cannot predict this and time
this we have to be careful with our
choices now look Tom Le's kind of bottom
line here just to kind of recap things
it's very simple saying look the next
eight weeks will be challenging the FED
is coming off restrictive rates the
economy is not a recession by the end of
2024 we're going to see a big rally now
how much of rally he actually br the
data look 3 months average in this
scenario is
8.6% 6month average is 13.2% and
12-month average is
15.4% so basically Tomley is saying that
from the First Rate cut we're about to
see in you know 24 hours or so the
market on average does 15.4% if the
economy is not in recession I take that
that's not a bad thing he also actually
said that the first week after cut is
usually the worst week of the entire
year after the the cut which just
exactly shows you how much of of this
misdirection and head fakes in the stock
market is designed kind of confus the
individual investors that's why this
channel exists thanks so much I'll see
you in the next one
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