The PRC Forum - Julian Simon (1of6)
Summary
TLDRIn this transcript, economist Julian Simon discusses the remarkable increase in life expectancy and living standards over the past 200 years, particularly in richer countries. He challenges the notion of resource scarcity, arguing that as we use more natural resources, we actually have more available. Simon explains that higher demand leads to innovation, making resources more accessible and cheaper. He emphasizes the importance of population growth, asserting that more people create both the demand and the solutions for better living standards.
Takeaways
- 🌟 Life expectancy has dramatically increased in the past 200 years, especially in the richest countries, where it has risen from under 30 to over 70 years.
- 📈 The increase in life expectancy is not limited to rich countries; even poorer countries have seen a significant rise of 15-20 years in the last 30-40 years post-World War II.
- 📉 Contrary to common belief, the use of natural resources has not led to scarcity; instead, they have become more available over time.
- 💰 The price of natural resources, including food, has been decreasing throughout human history, making them more affordable.
- ⏳ The process of resource availability involves initial shortages leading to price increases, which in turn drive innovation and new supply methods.
- 💡 Innovation and problem-solving are driven by the need to meet increased demand, often resulting in better solutions than before the problem arose.
- 🧠 Population growth is essential for economic and technological progress, as it provides both the demand and the intellectual capacity to create solutions.
- 🌱 If the human population had remained small, as it was thousands of years ago, we would lack many modern conveniences and medical advancements.
- 🌱 The speaker argues that we need more people, not fewer, to continue driving demand and innovation, which are key to improving living standards.
- 🌐 The script challenges Malthusian thinking, suggesting that more people and resource usage lead to increased availability and better living conditions.
Q & A
What significant change in human history has Julian Simon observed in the past 200 years?
-Julian Simon has observed a significant increase in life expectancy, particularly in the richest countries, from under 30 years to well over 70, as one of the most important and exciting events in human history.
According to Simon, what has been the trend of natural resources' availability as human population and usage have increased?
-Contrary to common belief, Simon argues that natural resources have become more available, not scarcer, as their prices have been going down throughout human history.
How does Simon explain the decrease in the price of natural resources over time?
-Simon explains that as the demand for natural resources increases, it creates opportunities for innovation, leading to more efficient extraction, cheaper refining processes, or the discovery of substitutes, which in turn lowers the price.
What role does Simon believe problems play in the advancement of human society?
-Simon posits that problems are essential for societal advancement as they stimulate challenges that lead to new solutions and an increasing standard of living.
Why does Simon argue that we need more people according to the transcript?
-Simon argues that we need more people because they create demand by using more resources and also provide the brains to create ideas and solutions to meet those demands.
What is Simon's stance on the relationship between population growth and technological advancement?
-Simon believes that population growth is crucial for technological advancement because it increases the number of minds available to generate new ideas and solutions.
How does Simon's perspective on resource availability challenge the Malthusian view?
-Simon's perspective challenges the Malthusian view by asserting that as we use more natural resources, we find ways to make them more available, rather than depleting them, thus contradicting the idea of inevitable resource scarcity.
What example does Simon use to illustrate the decrease in the cost of acquiring natural resources?
-Simon uses the example of copper, stating that it now takes a fraction of the human time to earn enough to buy a ton of copper compared to 200 years ago.
What thought experiment does Simon propose to demonstrate the importance of population growth?
-Simon proposes a thought experiment where if the Earth's population had remained at 1 million or 10 million, we might not have advanced technologies like electricity, television, air-conditioning, or penicillin.
What does Simon imply about the necessity of problems for societal progress?
-Simon implies that problems are necessary for societal progress because they drive innovation and the development of new solutions, ultimately leaving us better off than before the problem arose.
Outlines
📈 The Impact of Population Growth on Resource Availability
Julian Simon, an economist and business administration professor at the University of Maryland, discusses the significant increase in life expectancy over the past 200 years, particularly in the richest countries. He points out that contrary to common belief, the use of natural resources has not led to scarcity but has actually increased their availability. Simon argues that the price of natural resources, including food, has been decreasing over human history. He uses the example of copper to illustrate how the cost to acquire it has significantly reduced when measured in terms of human time and effort. Simon suggests that the increase in population and resource usage has paradoxically led to more resources being available, challenging the Malthusian view of resource scarcity.
💡 Innovation and Problem-Solving Driven by Resource Scarcity
Simon further explains the economic process that occurs when resources become scarce. As the demand for resources like copper increases and their prices rise, individuals and industries are incentivized to find new sources or more efficient ways to extract and use these resources. This leads to innovation, where successful solutions not only meet the demand but also improve the overall situation, leaving society better off than before the scarcity occurred. Simon emphasizes the importance of problems in driving technological advancements and improving living standards. He argues that a larger population is necessary for both creating demand and supplying solutions, suggesting that more people lead to more ideas and innovations. He concludes with a thought experiment, questioning whether modern conveniences like electricity, television, and air-conditioning would exist if the global population had remained small, highlighting the positive role of population growth in human progress.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Life Expectancy
💡Natural Resources
💡Scarcity
💡Population
💡Technological Innovation
💡Economics
💡Malthusian Thinking
💡Substitution
💡Human Imagination
💡Problems
Highlights
Life expectancy has dramatically increased in the last 200 years, especially in the richest countries.
In France 200 years ago, the life expectancy was less than 30 years.
Over the past 200 years, life expectancy has risen from under 30 to over 70 in rich countries.
Post-World War II has seen a 15-20 year increase in life expectancy in poorer countries.
Contrary to common belief, the use of natural resources has led to their increased availability, not scarcity.
The price of natural resources has been decreasing throughout human history.
It now takes significantly less time to earn enough to buy a ton of copper compared to 200 years ago.
All natural resources, including food, have become more available over time.
The process of using more resources leads to shortages, which in turn create opportunities for innovation.
In response to shortages, people find new ways to supply needs, leading to a better outcome than before the problem arose.
Problems are necessary for progress; they drive the creation of new solutions.
Population growth is essential for creating demand and supplying solutions to problems.
If the global population had remained small, we would lack the technological advancements we have today.
The increase in population has been crucial for the development of modern conveniences like electricity and air conditioning.
The need for more people is not just about quantity but also about the diversity of ideas and solutions they can provide.
Transcripts
I'm Julian Simon I'm an economist by
trade I teach business administration at
the University of Maryland for a living
and I've spent most of my time last 20
years writing about the economics of
population about the effects of more and
fewer people on other people let me
begin with some of the facts of life the
most important and exciting event that's
occurred in the whole history of
civilization has occurred in the last
200 years in the richest countries in
the world 200 years ago in France which
was then the richest country in the
world the chance of a person who was
born of living beyond the age of 27 28
29 was just about 50/50 that is the life
expectancy of the average person in the
richest country in the world was less
than 30 years and it had been less than
30 years for ten thousand years twenty
thousand years a very very long time
very very little it happens over the
whole history of the human enterprise
and then just in the past 200 years
which is a mere blip in history life
expectancy at Birth has gone up from
under 30 to well over 70 in the rich
countries in the world and the poorer
countries of the world another
extraordinary achievement has occurred
in just the 30 or 40 years since World
War two life expectancy has gone up 15
or 20 years throughout the whole poor
part of the world so I ask you has
anything else that's ever happened in
human history come close to this in its
importance this is meant that people
have not only lived longer but they're
living healthier and they're living
better lives
our material lives to have been getting
better rather than getting worse the
newspaper story she custom early read
would tell you that we should be
worrying about running out of natural
resources copper or wheat what have you
but the history of the past 200 years in
fact the whole history of humanity has
shown us the extraordinary event contra
Dahl common sense that the more that we
use of Natural Resources the more we
have of them that is rather than Natural
Resources becoming more scarce as we use
them they have been becoming more
available when I say more available I
mean that when we look at Natural
Resources with the measure that we as
economists use and the measure that's
important to us is consumers that is how
much do we have to pay to get these
resources we see that the price of
Natural Resources has been going down
rather than up throughout all of human
history let's take an example if you
want a ton of copper delivered on your
front lawn it would only cost you about
one-twentieth as much of the most
valuable thing you have which is your
human time to earn enough to buy a ton
of copper as it did 200 years ago and it
will only take you about 1 mm as much of
your time now to earn enough to buy a
ton of copper as it would have for a
thousand years ago and it's the same
story with every single natural resource
is the same with iron it's the same with
aluminum it's the same you name it it's
the same story that all of the natural
resources and that includes all the
foods wheat and corn and rice all of
them have been becoming more available
rather than more scarce contrary to all
common sense to all standard Malthusian
thinking so that what they're saying
is that more seems to be better more
people and more use of natural resources
somehow does the reverse and what our
common sense tone that's exactly right
the more we use the more we have and
perhaps we should take a minute to
explain the process by which this occurs
when we use more of something we have
more people when our income goes up so
that we can buy more there is for a
while a shortage these are a real sort
shortage or an expected shortage we use
more and the price goes up but the
process doesn't end here and that's
what's fundamental in response to these
shortages some people look at the
situation and say AHA here's opportunity
the price is going up if I can find some
way to get my hands on something I can
sell some and make some money on this so
people begin to look around this
shortage and say how can I find some
more copper or how can I use the old
copper mines to refine to get the copper
out more cheaply or how can I refine it
more cheaply or even more important in
the history of people how can we find
something to replace the copper with so
people look some succeed and some fail
and the people who succeed sooner or
later in finding ways to supply our need
for this copper and responds to the
higher price find ways to do it and the
exciting part of it is that at the
endpoint of this process after people
find new ways to supply our need for
copper we are left better off than if
the problem had never arisen in the
first place
that's what's extraordinary yes we're
left better off than if the problem had
never arisen and what this means is that
we need our problems in some fundamental
way we need bigger and better problems
that's not to say we should run out to
create any problems because we managed
to create problems pretty well but we do
need our problems if problems didn't
arise if population hadn't grown
so that people ran short of food if we
still had 10 million people on earth as
we had perhaps 10,000 years ago and
people were still living an average of
30 years or less at Birth we wouldn't
have had this fancy lunch that you and I
had today but instead we've been out
chasing rabbits and digging roots not
worried about a shortage of rabbits or
roots but that's the kind of lunch we
would have had what's the names to me
most people would agree with the if you
would the technological side of what
you're saying that the problems create
challenge which lead to new ways to meet
those and and an increasing standard of
living but I don't think nearly as many
people would agree with you on the
people side that we need all these
people around and yet you feel very
strongly about that
well imagine it cast your mind back to
this thought experiment which I raised
with you a minute ago imagine what would
have happened if we for the population
of our earth had remained that 1 million
or 10 million people as it was tens of
thousands of years ago 10,000 years ago
perhaps do you think that the processes
would have begun and played out so that
we would now have the electricity to run
this videotaping do you think that
people would have come up with the ideas
to produce television do you think that
we would have had enough human minds and
enough human imagination to have
produced the air-conditioning what's
keeping this room cool or the penicillin
which may have cured your daughter of
strep throat last month I think that if
we didn't have human beings to do two
things and let's name those two things
one is we need people to create more
demand for things by using more that is
to make the problems but we also need
the people to create the solutions so we
need their mouths to eat and create the
demand we need their brains to create
the ideas to supply our new needs
without these a population had never
grown we would as I say still be chasing
rabbits and eating
roots and trying to cool ourselves with
fans instead of his air conditioning and
we would be lighting this room with a
there wouldn't be a room here if you
want more people you must like people
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