1 de junho TAReia antecipada – As implicações do anúncio.
Summary
TLDRÓscar Felgueiras discusses the recent announcement by Enade, Portugal's energy regulator, revealing a 35.6 EUR/MWh increase in network access tariffs effective from June 1st instead of July 1st. This rise, following a pattern of low market prices impacting electricity tariffs, is attributed to historical contracts with renewable energy producers. The new tariffs are expected to be finalized by mid-May, with potential implications for both regulated and market-indexed tariffs. EDP's announcement of a 10% decrease in energy costs amidst these changes adds a layer of complexity to the upcoming adjustments in electricity pricing.
Takeaways
- 📈 The energy regulator, Enade, has announced a significant increase in network access tariffs by 35.6 EUR per MWh, effective from June 1st instead of the usual July 1st.
- 🕒 The increase is set against a backdrop of historically low market prices, which have a visible impact on electricity tariffs and is part of a trend since 2022.
- 📊 The provisional proposal suggests that the final decision will be announced by mid-May, with the new tariffs fixed until the end of the year.
- 💹 The main reason for the increase is the market prices being significantly below the anticipated value in December, impacting the remuneration for renewable energy producers.
- 🔗 Low market prices lead to higher costs for guaranteed remuneration of renewable energy producers, which is then covered by network access tariffs.
- 📊 The exact value of the new network access tariffs is expected to be around 101.8 EUR per MWh from June, closely aligning with the 2020 figures.
- 💼 The impact on different electricity tariffs includes a 0.1% decrease for the regulated tariff, while the social tariff component remains unclear on how it will be implemented.
- 📉 For market-indexed customers, the increase in network access tariffs will likely be reflected in their bills, with no room for the profit margin of suppliers to accommodate the increase.
- 📉 EDP has announced a 10% decrease in its energy component, coinciding with the new network access tariffs, possibly indicating a strategy to stay competitive.
- ⏱️ Consumers should be vigilant from mid-May onwards as the final values of network access tariffs will be known, defining the electricity landscape for the second half of the year.
Q & A
Who is Óscar Felgueiras and what is his focus in the script?
-Óscar Felgueiras is the speaker in the script, and his focus is on discussing the recent announcement by Enade, the energy services regulator, regarding the increase in network access tariffs.
What is the announced increase in network access tariffs according to the script?
-The network access tariffs are set to increase globally by 35.6 EUR per MWh, effective from June 1st instead of the usual July 1st.
Why is there an anticipated increase in tariffs despite historically low market prices?
-The increase is due to the fact that market prices are significantly below the anticipated value, which impacts the electricity tariffs. Low market prices mean that the cost with guaranteed remuneration for renewable energy producers increases, which is then covered by the network access tariffs.
What is the provisional nature of the proposed increase mentioned in the script?
-The proposed increase is still provisional, and the final decision is expected to be announced by Enade in mid-May, which is the usual lead time before the new tariffs take effect on June 1st.
What is the average guaranteed remuneration for renewable energy producers as per historical contracts?
-The average guaranteed remuneration for renewable energy producers under historical contracts is 102 EUR per MWh, which represents about 1/3 of the national consumption.
How does the low market price affect the network access tariffs?
-When the market price is below the value of these historical contracts, the difference is paid through the network access tariffs, leading to an increase in these tariffs.
What is the estimated cost of the new network access tariffs starting from June according to the script?
-The estimated cost of the new network access tariffs starting from June is 101.8 EUR per MWh.
How does the new increase in network access tariffs compare to the previous year's rates?
-The new increase is likely to result in a rate slightly below that of 2020, which was 7.28 c per kWh, possibly settling around 7 ctim per kWh, indicating a rise of slightly less than 35% per kWh.
What is the impact of the increase on the regulated tariff chosen by over 900,000 consumers?
-For the regulated tariff, the final price is announced to decrease by 0.1%, which may not be sufficient to cover the increase in the cost of the social tariff, which is fixed at 0.2893 c per kWh.
How will the increase in network access tariffs affect customers on indexed tariffs?
-For customers on indexed tariffs, there is little doubt that the increase in network access tariffs will be reflected in their bills, as the profit margins of the commercializers do not allow for accommodation of this increase.
What is the potential impact on fixed tariffs and what does EDP announce regarding their energy component?
-For fixed tariffs, there will likely be increases in the majority of cases, but there might be exceptions. EDP has announced a 10% decrease in their energy component, coinciding with the new network access tariffs, and it is likely they will announce a larger decrease to not exceed the cost of the regulated tariff.
What does the ERS plan to improve in terms of tariff review mechanisms?
-The ERS plans to improve the tariff review mechanism to allow for simultaneous and automatic adjustments of both energy tariffs and network access tariffs.
Outlines
📈 Market Tariffs Rise and Regulatory Updates
In this introduction, Óscar Felgueiras discusses the recent announcement by Enade, the energy regulator, about an unexpected increase in energy access tariffs by €35.6 per MWh starting from June 1. This increase comes earlier than usual, having typically occurred in July since 2022. Despite historically low market prices for energy, this shift is expected to have significant consequences on electricity rates. Felgueiras highlights that the proposal is provisional, and the final decision will be made by ERS in mid-May, ahead of the new tariff implementation. The market's low prices, below what was forecasted in December (from €88.3 to €57 per MWh), are the main reason for the hike. Contracts with renewable energy producers, which guarantee a fixed remuneration of €102 per MWh, have led to additional costs being passed onto consumers through these tariffs.
💡 Projected Tariffs and Market Impacts
Felgueiras delves into specific numbers, analyzing the cost breakdown of the new energy tariffs. According to December's projections, the base tariff was set at €66.2 per MWh. The most recent update indicates an additional €35.6 per MWh, raising the overall cost to €101.8 per MWh starting in June. Although this isn't explicitly stated in the communication, a weighted average of €87 per MWh for 2024 is provided. This new price is close to the €104.1 per MWh recorded in 2020, suggesting that the upcoming tariffs will be slightly lower than those of that year. Felgueiras thanks Sonia Pereira for her table, which tracks tariff changes since 2020, and projects that the new rates may hover around 7 cents per kWh, a minor increase of just under 3 cents per kWh.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Enade
💡Tarifas de Acesso Redes
💡Preços de Mercado
💡Tarifários de Eletricidade
💡Remuneração Garantida
💡Tarifa Simples
💡Tarifa Social
💡Mercado Indexado
💡EDP
💡Mecanismo de Revisão
Highlights
The Enade announces a general increase in energy network access tariffs by 35.6 EUR/MWh starting from June 1st instead of July 1st.
The increase is proposed in a context of historically low market prices impacting electricity tariffs.
The provisional proposal is expected to be finalized by Enade by mid-May with the new tariffs effective from June 1st until year-end.
Market prices are significantly below the anticipated value, leading to an increase in network access tariffs.
Historical contracts with renewable energy producers at a guaranteed average remuneration of 102 EUR/MWh account for about 1/3 of national consumption.
When market prices are below these contract values, the difference is covered by network access tariffs.
The new tariff increase is expected to bring costs close to those seen in 2020.
The estimated cost from June will be 101.8 EUR/MWh, close to the 104.1 EUR/MWh recorded in 2020.
The new network access tariff is likely to be slightly below that of 2020, around 7.28 c per kWh.
For the regulated tariff chosen by over 900,000 consumers, the final price will decrease by 0.1%, which may not cover the increased cost of the social tariff.
The social tariff, fixed at 0.2893 c per kWh, will likely be implemented optionally by retailers from April 1st.
For market-indexed customers, the increase in network access tariffs will likely be reflected in their bills.
EDP announced a 10% decrease in its energy component coinciding with the new network access tariffs.
EDP may announce a larger decrease to avoid a cost higher than the regulated tariff.
The decrease in wholesale electricity prices may partially or fully compensate for the increase in network access tariffs.
Enade will improve the tariff review mechanism to allow simultaneous and automatic adjustments of energy and network access tariffs.
Prices are set to increase through network access tariffs, the social tariff contribution, and for indexed tariffs, the market price increase from May onwards.
Consumers should be particularly attentive from mid-May when the final values of network access tariffs will be known and the outlook for the second half of the year will start to take shape.
Transcripts
[Música]
Olá Caros Amigos sou o Óscar Felgueiras
E hoje vamos focar-nos na grande
novidade anunciada ontem pela Enade
reguladora dos servos energticos
a as tarifas de acesso redes vão
aumentar globalmente em
35,6 EUR por Mew já a partir de 1 de
junho em vez de 1 de julho Como tem sido
habitual desde
2022 este aumento antecipado ocorre num
contexto de preços de mercado
historicamente baixos que têm tido um
impacto visível nos tarifários de
eletricidade esta nova subida vai
provocar mudanças significativas e com
base nos documentos divulgados ontem
pela Ace vamos analisar as implicações
mais importantes e as consequências para
os tarifários de eletricidade comecemos
pelo comunicado emitido pela s o
primeiro aspeto a destacar é que a
proposta apresentada é ainda provisório
o previsível Será que a ERS divulgue a
sua decisão final a meio de Maio com a
antecedência habitual relativamente à
entrada em vigor das novas tarifas de
acesso às redes a 1 de junho as quais
ficarão fixas até ao fim do ano em
segundo lugar a principal razão para
este aumento é o facto de os preços de
mercado estarem muito abaixo do
antecipado em dezembro a a tinha
assumido um valor médio de
88,3 € por mwh para 2024 enquanto
atualmente é esperado um valor na ordem
dos 57 € por mwh e a Ace explica
concretamente o porquê dos preços baixos
resultarem num aumento das tarifas de
acesso às redes existem contratos
históricos feitos com produtores de
energia renovável com uma remuneração
média garantida de 102 € por mwh
representando cerca de 1/3 do consumo
Nacional quando o preço no Mercado
grossista está abaixo do valor destes
contratos como tem Estado A diferença é
paga através das tarifas de acesso às
redes ou seja os preços andam muito
baixos logo o custo com os produtores de
remuneração garantida aumenta tal como
podem ver neste gráfico em 2024 estamos
a voltar a uma situação próxima da que
existia em 2020 em terceiro lugar é
importante entender Qual será o valor
exato das novas tarifas de acesso às
redes particularmente o caso da tarifa
simples na última atualização comunicada
em dezembro foi apresentado este gráfico
com a estimativa do valor Global do
custo
66,2 € por MW no comunicado de ontem é
mencionado que este valor terá uma
variação mensal de mais 35,6 € Por mwh
isto qu quer dizer que o custo estimado
a partir de Junho será de
101,8 € por mwh claro que no comunicado
este valor não é assim apresentado
aparece um valor de
87,0 € por MW que corresponde à média
ponderada para o ano de
2024 esta informação permite-nos ter uma
ideia bastante aproximada do aumento na
prática dado que o valor de 101,8 € por
megaw relativo aos últimos 7 meses de
2024 é muito próximo dos
104,1 € por megaw registados em 2020
pelo que é provável que a nova tarifa de
acesso às redes fique ligeiramente
abaixo daquela que vigorou nesse ano
nesta tabela elaborada pela Sónia
Pereira a quem agradeço a
disponibilização podem consultar os
valores das tarifas de acesso às redes
desde 2020 ano em que esteve a 7,28 c
por kWh é provável que agora fique
ligeiramente abaixo num valor próximo de
7 ctim por kWh ou seja um aumento um
pouco abaixo dos 3 C5 por kWh em quarto
lugar interessa perceber o impacto que
isto terá nos diferentes tarifários na
tarifa regulada escolhida por mais de
900.000 consumidores a a anuncia que o
preço final irá diminuir zer ,
1% tendo em conta que o kWh está agora
em
16,25 ctim esta redução pode não ser
sequer suficiente para cobrir o aumento
relativo ao custo da tarifa social
entretanto fixado em
0,289 3 C por kWh continua a não ser
claro como é que este custo será
implementado na prática dado que a s
indicou que será opcional os
comercializadores apresentarem na fatura
seja como for está em vigor desde dia 1
de abril e a Copérnico já divulgou como
o fará fazendo no caso concreto a
multiplicação pelo fator de perdas
resultando num acréscimo de cerca de 16%
à taxa mencionada quanto aos clientes do
mercado indexado não há grandes dúvidas
de quase todos se não todos verão o
aumento da tarifa de acesso às redes ser
refletido nas suas faturas a margem de
lucro destes comercializadores não
permite acomodar nem este aumento nem
Muito provavelmente o relativo ao custo
da tarifa social no caso dos tarifários
fixos em princípio haverá aumentos na
maioria Mas pode haver alguma exceção
EDP anunciou uma diminuição de 10% na
sua componente de energia com entrada em
vigor coincidente com as novas tarifas
de acesso às redes é muito provável que
acabe por anunciar uma diminuição maior
para não ter um custo superior ao da
tarifa regulada Como já aconteceu em
janeiro neste aspeto a mostra-se algo
otimista eere que dado que os preços no
mercado grossista de eletricidade ten
vindo a descer eventuais descidas na
componente de energia pelos
comercializadores poderão compensar
parcial ou totalmente o aumento das
tarifas de acesso às redes portanto um
voto de confiança na boa vontade dos
comercializadores nota final para o
facto da ERS anunciar que irá
aperfeiçoar o mecanismo de revisão das
tarifas de modo a permitir ajustar em
simultâneo e de forma automática as
tarifas de energia e as tarifas de
acesso às redes em conclusão os preços
estão prestes a aumentar e por três vias
as tarifas de acesso às redes o
contributo para tara social e no caso
dos indexados pelo aumento do preço de
mercado de Maio em diante estejam
atentos principalmente a partir de
meados de Maio em que se conhecerão os
valores finais das tarifas de acesso às
redes e começará a definir-se o panorama
para a segunda metade do ano o verão na
eletricidade este ano chega mais cedo
por hoje é tudo fiquem bem até à
próxima i
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