Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

Summary

In this talk, the speaker explores the relationship between religion and fertility rates, challenging the notion that religion is a primary determinant of birth rates. Using historical and global data, the speaker demonstrates that as countries develop, fertility rates decline regardless of religious majority. Highlighting the importance of child survival, women's education, and access to family planning, the speaker argues that these factors, rather than religion, are key to reducing birth rates. The talk concludes with a prediction that the world has reached 'peak child,' suggesting that global population growth will stabilize as these factors improve.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The talk focuses on the relationship between religion and fertility rates, specifically the number of babies per woman.
• 📉 The world population has grown significantly, but there's a consensus that there's a limit to how many people the planet can sustain.
• 🔍 The speaker questions the impact of religion on birth rates, challenging the notion that certain religions inherently lead to higher fertility.
• 🗺️ A visual representation of religious distribution shows a mix of major religions across the globe, with no clear pattern linking religion to high fertility rates.
• 📊 Historical data from 1960 shows a correlation between wealth and lower birth rates, with some exceptions like Japan.
• 🌟 There's been a global decline in the number of babies per woman, regardless of religious affiliation, indicating a broader trend.
• 🌱 The speaker emphasizes that economic development is not the only factor leading to lower fertility rates; social changes play a significant role.
• 🏛️ Religions are capable of adapting to social changes, and there's no inherent conflict between religious values and lower fertility rates.
• 🌱 The talk suggests that with improvements in child survival, education, and access to family planning, fertility rates can decrease across all religions.
• 🌍 The world has reached 'peak child,' meaning the number of children is no longer increasing, which has implications for future population growth.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the talk by Morton Bast?

The main topic of the talk is the relationship between religion and fertility rates, specifically focusing on the impact of religions on the number of babies per woman.

Why is the subject of religion considered delicate according to the speaker?

The subject of religion is considered delicate because it encompasses a broad range of beliefs and practices that can vary significantly across cultures and individuals, and discussing it can involve sensitive cultural and personal aspects.

What was the global population in 1960 according to the speaker?

The global population in 1960 was three billion.

What was the global population in the year before the talk was given?

The global population in the year before the talk was given was seven billion.

What does the speaker claim about the necessity of wealth before a decrease in fertility rates?

The speaker claims that it was a common belief that countries had to become wealthy before they experienced a decrease in fertility rates, but the data shows that this is not always the case.

What was the fertility rate like in Muslim majority countries in 1960 according to the talk?

In 1960, almost all Muslim majority countries had fertility rates of six to seven children per woman, regardless of their income level.

What does the speaker identify as the four factors contributing to a decrease in fertility rates?

The speaker identifies four factors contributing to a decrease in fertility rates: children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, women should get education and join the labor force, and family planning should be accessible.

What does the speaker predict about the future of the global population?

The speaker predicts that the global population will stop growing and will stabilize at around 10 billion people.

What is the term used by the speaker to describe the current state of the global child population?

The speaker uses the term 'peak child' to describe the current state of the global child population, indicating that the number of children is no longer growing.

How does the speaker suggest countries with high fertility rates can reduce the number of babies per woman?

The speaker suggests that countries with high fertility rates can reduce the number of babies per woman by improving child survival rates, reducing the necessity of children for work, increasing women's education and labor force participation, and making family planning accessible.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Religion and Fertility Rates

The speaker, Timothy Covell, begins by addressing the complexity of discussing religion due to its broad and delicate nature. He narrows the focus to the relationship between religion and sexuality, particularly the impact of religious beliefs on fertility rates. Covell uses humor to lighten the topic before delving into the serious issue of global population growth. He presents historical data showing the increase in world population from 3 billion in 1960 to 7 billion in the recent past and poses a quiz to the audience about future population trends. The speaker then introduces a Gapminder map that categorizes countries by their majority religion and discusses how religious beliefs might influence family planning and birth rates. The talk concludes with a look at how fertility rates have changed over time, with a particular focus on the role of religion in these changes.

05:04

🌱 Global Fertility Trends and Religion

The speaker continues by illustrating the global trend of declining fertility rates, even in countries with lower incomes. He points out that by 2010, 80% of the world's population lived in countries where the average number of children per woman was around two. This trend was observed across various religious groups, including Christianity and Islam, with no significant difference between them. However, the speaker notes a correlation between higher fertility rates and lower income levels, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and some other countries. He also discusses the impact of child mortality on fertility rates, explaining that higher death rates lead to larger family sizes as families attempt to ensure the survival of their offspring. The speaker compares the progress of Senegal and Ghana since their independence, highlighting the significant reduction in fertility rates. He identifies four key factors contributing to lower fertility rates: improved child survival, reduced economic necessity for children, increased access to family planning, and the integration of women into education and the workforce.

10:05

🌱 Peak Child and the Future Population

In the final paragraph, the speaker declares that the world has reached 'peak child,' meaning that the number of children is no longer increasing globally. He explains that the world's population will continue to grow due to the 'big fill-up' effect, where the current large cohorts of young people will age and replace the smaller cohorts of older people. The speaker uses a physical demonstration with card boxes to illustrate this demographic shift. He concludes by emphasizing that religion plays a minimal role in fertility rates and that all religions can adapt to the changing global demographic landscape. The speaker calls for planning for a future population of 10 billion, contingent on improvements in poverty, child survival, and access to family planning. He ends on a hopeful note, suggesting that with these improvements, the world can sustainably accommodate the projected population growth.

Keywords

💡Religion

Religion refers to a system of beliefs and practices that often involve the worship of a deity or deities and provide a framework for understanding the world and human existence. In the video, the speaker discusses the relationship between religion and fertility rates, suggesting that certain religious beliefs may influence the number of children a woman has. The video explores how different religions, such as Islam, Christianity, and Eastern religions, are associated with varying fertility rates across different countries.

💡Sexuality

Sexuality encompasses a broad range of human experiences, behaviors, and emotions related to intimacy, attraction, and sexual behavior. The video touches on the intersection of religion and sexuality, particularly in the context of procreation and family planning. It highlights how religious teachings and cultural practices can impact decisions regarding family size and childbearing.

💡Fertility Rates

Fertility rates refer to the average number of children born per woman in a given population. The video's central theme revolves around fertility rates and how they are influenced by various factors, including religion, income, and access to family planning. The speaker uses historical and global data to illustrate changes in fertility rates over time and across different regions.

💡Population Growth

Population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population over time. The video discusses the implications of population growth on the planet, with a focus on the historical context of global population and predictions for future growth. It emphasizes the importance of understanding factors that contribute to population growth, such as fertility rates and religious beliefs.

💡Eastern Religions

Eastern religions generally refer to a group of religious traditions that originated in the Eastern part of the world, including Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, Taoism, and Confucianism. In the video, the speaker contrasts Eastern religions with Abrahamic religions, noting differences in fertility rates among countries where these religions are predominant.

💡Islam

Islam is one of the Abrahamic religions, with over a billion followers worldwide. The video discusses the role of Islam in influencing fertility rates, noting that countries with a Muslim majority often have higher fertility rates compared to other religious groups. However, it also points out that there is no major difference in fertility rates between Islam and Christianity when income levels are considered.

💡Christianity

Christianity is the world's largest religion, with a diverse range of denominations and beliefs. The video explores the impact of Christianity on fertility rates, highlighting that while historically Christian-majority countries had higher fertility rates, there has been a significant decline over time, with many now having fertility rates around the replacement level.

💡Family Planning

Family planning refers to the practice of deciding how many children to have and when to have them, often involving the use of contraception and other reproductive health services. The video emphasizes the importance of family planning in reducing fertility rates and controlling population growth, suggesting that access to family planning is a key factor in lowering the number of children per woman.

💡Income Level

Income level refers to the average income of individuals within a country or region. The video suggests a correlation between income level and fertility rates, with wealthier countries tending to have lower fertility rates. However, it also challenges this notion by showing that fertility rates have declined in many countries regardless of income, indicating that economic development is not the sole determinant of fertility.

💡Replacement Fertility Rate

The replacement fertility rate is the average number of children a woman must have in her lifetime to replace the population of her country without immigration. It is typically around 2.1 children per woman. The video discusses how many countries have reached or are approaching this rate, indicating a stabilization in population growth.

💡Modernization

Modernization refers to the process of societal change from traditional to modern methods, systems, and values. The video uses the example of Qatar to illustrate how modernization, including increased age at first marriage, higher education levels for women, and increased female participation in the labor force, has contributed to a decline in fertility rates.

Highlights

The talk focuses on the relationship between religion and sexuality, specifically the impact of religions on fertility rates.

Religions are suggested to influence the number of children per woman, which is crucial due to the planet's carrying capacity.

A historical perspective on world population growth is provided, with statistics from 1960 to the present.

The speaker poses a quiz to the audience, asking to predict the future number of children in the world by the end of the century.

A classification of religions is attempted, with a mention of the challenges in accurately categorizing them.

Gapminder's own map of religions is introduced, showing the majority religion in each country by color and population size.

In 1960, it was observed that only rich Christian countries had low fertility rates, with an exception noted for Japan.

The talk illustrates a global trend where the number of children per woman is decreasing across different religions and income levels.

By 2010, 80% of the world's population lived in countries with approximately two children per woman.

Data on children per woman is described as reliable, sourced from census data across various countries.

The talk refutes the notion that wealth is a prerequisite for lower fertility rates, as the trend is global and crosses income levels.

Eastern religions are noted to not have any country with a majority following that has more than three children per woman.

There is no significant difference in fertility rates between Islamic and Christian majority countries.

Low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, have higher fertility rates.

Countries with high mortality rates often have the fastest population growth due to the need to replace deceased children.

A comparison is made between Senegal and Ghana, showing a significant decrease in fertility rates over time.

Four key factors for lowering fertility rates are identified: child survival, reduced child labor, women's education, and access to family planning.

The talk concludes that the world has reached 'peak child,' with the number of children no longer growing.

The United Nations Population Division predicts that world population growth will stop at around 10 billion.

The concept of 'the big fill-up' is introduced, explaining the transition from the current population structure to a more evenly distributed age demographic.

The talk emphasizes that religion has little to do with fertility rates and that all religions can adapt to the new global demographic reality.

The final message is a call to plan for a world population of 10 billion, considering the needs of the poorest for survival, family planning, and poverty alleviation.

Transcripts

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

I'm going to talk about religion.

But it's a broad and very delicate subject,

so I have to limit myself.

And therefore I will limit myself

to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality.

(Laughter)

This is a very serious talk.

So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful.

It's when the young couple whisper,

"Tonight we are going to make a baby."

My talk will be about the impact of religions

on the number of babies per woman.

This is indeed important,

because everyone understands

that there is some sort of limit

on how many people we can be on this planet.

And there are some people

who say that the world population is growing like this --

three billion in 1960,

seven billion just last year --

and it will continue to grow

because there are religions that stop women from having few babies,

and it may continue like this.

To what extent are these people right?

When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world,

and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.

What has happened since,

and what do the experts predict will happen

with the number of children during this century?

This is a quiz. What do you think?

Do you think it will decrease to one billion?

Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century?

Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years,

or will it continue in the same fast rate

and be four billion children up there?

I will tell you by the end of my speech.

But now, what does religion have to do with it?

When you want to classify religion,

it's more difficult than you think.

You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this.

It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion,

but that's not detailed enough.

So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map.

But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism

into many subgroups,

which was too detailed.

Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map,

and it looks like this.

Each country's a bubble.

The size is the population -- big China, big India here.

And the color now is the majority religion.

It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people

say that they belong.

It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries.

Islam is the majority religion

all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East,

Southern Europe and through Asia

all the way to Indonesia.

That's where we find Islamic majority.

And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue.

And that is most countries in America and Europe,

many countries in Africa and a few in Asia.

The white here are countries which cannot be classified,

because one religion does not reach 50 percent

or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason.

So we were careful with that.

So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot.

This is in 1960.

And now I show the number of babies per woman here:

two, four or six --

many babies, few babies.

And here the income per person in comparable dollars.

The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first

before you get few babies.

So low income here, high income there.

And indeed in 1960,

you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

The exception was Japan.

Japan here was regarded as an exception.

Otherwise it was only Christian countries.

But there was also many Christian countries

that had six to seven babies per woman.

But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa.

And countries with Islam as the majority religion,

all of them almost had six to seven children per woman,

irregardless of the income level.

And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level.

Now let's see what has happened in the world.

I start the world, and here we go.

Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer,

but the number of babies per woman is falling?

Look at China. They're falling fairly fast.

And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down,

as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range.

And when we enter into this century,

you'll find more than half of mankind down here.

And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans

who live in countries with about two children per woman.

(Applause)

It's a quite amazing development which has happened.

(Applause)

And these are countries from United States here,

with $40,000 per capita,

France, Russia, Iran,

Mexico, Turkey, Algeria,

Indonesia, India

and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam,

which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States

and the same amount of babies per woman.

I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman

is surprisingly good in all countries.

We get that from the census data.

It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful.

So what we can conclude

is you don't have to get rich to have few children.

It has happened across the world.

And then when we look at religions,

we can see that the Eastern religions,

indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion

that has more than three children.

Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity,

you see countries all the way.

But there's no major difference.

There's no major difference between these religions.

There is a difference with income.

The countries which have many babies per woman here,

they have quite low income.

Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa.

But there are also countries here

like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea,

like Yemen and Afghanistan.

Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo,

which have suffered severe conflicts,

that they don't have fast population growth.

It's the other way around.

In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates

that have the fastest population growth.

Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child.

These countries have six children per woman.

They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman.

But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million.

Congo will go from 60 to 120.

That's where we have the fast population growth.

And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not.

Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country,

with a Christian dominated country, Ghana.

I take them backwards here to their independence,

when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s.

Just look what they have done.

It's an amazing improvement,

from seven children per woman,

they've gone all the way down to between four and five.

It's a tremendous improvement.

So what does it take?

Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries.

You need to have children to survive.

You need to get out of the deepest poverty

so children are not of importance for work in the family.

You need to have access to some family planning.

And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor.

But let me illustrate that fourth factor

by looking at Qatar.

Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today.

If I take these countries back to the years of their independence,

which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 --

it's a quite amazing development which had happened.

Look at Bangladesh and Qatar.

With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop

in number of babies per woman.

And what is the reason in Qatar?

Well I do as I always do.

I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage --

It's a very good webpage. I recommend it --

and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here --

and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends.

Very interesting. Lots to read.

I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman.

These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar,

and they say the most important factors are:

"Increased age at first marriage,

increased educational level of Qatari woman

and more women integrated in the labor force."

I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more.

This is a country that indeed has gone through

a very, very interesting modernization.

So what it is, is these four:

Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work,

women should get education and join the labor force

and family planning should be accessible.

Now look again at this.

The average number of children in the world

is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today.

There are countries up here which are very poor.

And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed.

I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk.

And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman.

So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz,

it's two.

We have reached peak child.

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world.

We are still debating peak oil,

but we have definitely reached peak child.

And the world population will stop growing.

The United Nations Population Division has said

it will stop growing at 10 billion.

But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow?

Well I will show you here.

I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came.

They are quite useful for educational purposes.

Each card box is one billion people.

And there are two billion children in the world.

There are two billion young people between 15 and 30.

These are rounded numbers.

Then there is one billion between 30 and 45,

almost one between 45 and 60.

And then it's my box.

This is me: 60-plus.

We are here on top.

So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up."

You can see that it's like three billion missing here.

They are not missing because they've died; they were never born.

Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born

than there were during the last 30 years.

So what will happen now is quite straightforward.

The old, sadly, we will die.

The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children.

Then the old will die.

The rest will grow older and get two billion children.

And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children.

(Applause)

This is the great fill-up.

It's inevitable.

And can you see that this increase took place

without life getting longer and without adding children?

Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.

All the religions in the world are fully capable

to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

And we will be just 10 billion in this world,

if the poorest people get out of poverty,

their children survive, they get access to family planning.

That is needed.

But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more.

So when you discuss and when you plan

for the resources and the energy needed for the future,

for human beings on this planet,

you have to plan for 10 billion.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)