The Bronze Age Collapse - Systems Collapse - Extra History - Part 4

Summary

This episode delves into the speculative causes of the Bronze Age collapse, highlighting food shortages as the initial trigger. It discusses societal unrest, the decline of trade, and the rise of piracy, leading to the fall of great palaces and the eventual disintegration of complex societies. The narrative emphasizes the fragility of advanced civilizations and draws parallels to modern society, cautioning against overconfidence in our own resilience.

Takeaways

• 🌾 The Bronze Age collapse began with food shortages, possibly outside the known Bronze Age world, leading to population movements.
• 📉 Declining harvests in Anatolia forced societies to deplete reserves and rely more on trade, causing social unrest.
• 🤔 As harvests worsened, people questioned the efficacy of their leaders, who were seen as responsible for ensuring good harvests.
• 🏰 The decline in trade due to new raiders and pirates in the Aegean Sea led to the darkening of the Mycenaean palace centers.
• 🛡️ The Hittites' panic over the situation led to military responses, such as moving troops to Cyprus and setting up emergency weapon production.
• 🌊 The arrival of refugees from the Aegean Sea brought tales of the 'sea peoples', contributing to the chaos and the breakdown of international trade.
• 🔥 The Bronze Age cities faced continuous war, leading to the burning or pillaging of grain stores, famine, and disease.
• ⚔️ The traditional chariot armies were ill-equipped for the continuous warfare, leading to their disintegration.
• 🏺 The complex supply chains that supported the Bronze Age societies collapsed, leading to a drastic drop in economic capacity and production.
• 🏰 Central authority crumbled as local rulers lost legitimacy, and armed men joined the chaos, leading to the end of kingdoms and a return to localized survival groups.
• 🕰️ The collapse of the Bronze Age societies was not a morality tale against complexity but a lesson in the fragility of even the most advanced societies.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the video script?

The main theme of the video script is the speculative analysis of the causes behind the collapse of Bronze Age societies, focusing on food shortages, societal unrest, invasions, and the eventual breakdown of complex systems.

Why do the authors of the script choose to speculate on the Bronze Age collapse?

The authors choose to speculate because there is no conclusive historical data or general consensus among scholars on the exact causes of the Bronze Age collapse.

What role do food shortages play in the collapse according to the script?

Food shortages are presented as the initial trigger for the Bronze Age collapse, leading to population movements and the unraveling of social fabric as societies struggle to cope with the scarcity.

How does the decline in harvests in Anatolia contribute to the collapse?

The decline in harvests in Anatolia leads to increased trade for food, depletion of reserves, and social unrest, which undermines the social order and contributes to the overall collapse.

What is the significance of the Aegean Sea pirates and new raiders in the narrative?

The Aegean Sea pirates and new raiders symbolize the rise of insecurity and the disruption of trade, which further weakens the already strained societies of the Bronze Age.

Why do the Mycenaean palace centers start to go dark?

The Mycenaean palace centers start to go dark due to the decline in trade, the influx of refugees, and the inability to defend against the continuous onslaught of sea peoples.

What is the role of the Hittites in the collapse as described in the script?

The Hittites panic in response to the crisis, securing their copper supply by moving troops to Cyprus and setting up emergency smithies to produce weapons, which indicates the desperation and the militarization in response to the collapse.

Why do the chariot armies fail to protect the Bronze Age kingdoms?

The chariot armies fail because they are designed for formal warfare and are not equipped to handle the continuous war and attrition brought on by the sea peoples, leading to the loss of expensive machines and irreplaceable trained men.

How does the script explain the final dissolution of central authority?

Central authority dissolves as the economic capacity nosedives, the supply chain for production breaks down, and the death or loss of legitimacy of many kings and local rulers leads to the collapse of command economies and the rise of localized, primitive work.

What is the 'Systems Collapse' theory mentioned in the script?

The 'Systems Collapse' theory suggests that societies add complexities to solve problems, but these come with ongoing costs. When the cost of maintaining these systems exceeds the society's ability to generate new efficiencies or when major problems overwhelm the system's capacity to handle them, society collapses.

What lesson does the script draw from the Bronze Age collapse for modern societies?

The script suggests that while modern societies are more resilient due to technology and complexity, they are not invulnerable. It emphasizes the importance of managing our complex systems thoughtfully and with respect to avoid self-inflicted crises that could lead to collapse.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 The Collapse of the Bronze Age Civilizations

This paragraph delves into the speculative theory of the Bronze Age collapse, starting with food shortages in Europe and the Eurasian Steppe, leading to population movements. The decline in harvests in Anatolia and the subsequent depletion of food reserves trigger social unrest. The failure of priests and kings to ensure good harvests leads to a loss of faith and societal order. The appearance of pirates and raiders in the Aegean Sea and the decline in trade further destabilize the region. The Mycenaean palaces fall, international trade disintegrates, and the Hittites scramble to secure resources. Refugees bring tales of invasion and destruction, and the inability to integrate them into society leads to further chaos. The Bronze Age cities are eventually abandoned due to continuous war, famine, and disease, leading to the collapse of central authority and the end of complex societies.

05:00

🔄 The Resilience and Fragility of Complex Societies

The second paragraph discusses the complexities and vulnerabilities of advanced societies. It argues that while complexity allows for higher production levels, larger populations, and cultural advancements, it also makes societies more susceptible to major shocks. The 'Systems Collapse' theory is introduced, suggesting that societies add layers of complexity to solve problems, but this comes with ongoing costs. The theory posits that societies can collapse either slowly due to unsustainable maintenance costs or rapidly when faced with a series of overwhelming problems that their interconnected systems cannot handle. The paragraph concludes with a reflection on the lessons from the Bronze Age, emphasizing the importance of managing our complex modern societies with care to avoid self-inflicted crises that could lead to collapse.

Keywords

💡Bronze Age Collapses

The Bronze Age Collapses refer to the cultural and societal decline that occurred during the transition from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age, particularly around 1200 BCE. This period saw the fall of several civilizations in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the Hittites and Mycenaean Greeks. In the video, the Bronze Age Collapses are central to the discussion, as the script explores the various factors that may have contributed to this decline, such as food shortages, social unrest, and invasions.

💡Food Shortages

Food shortages are a lack of sufficient food supply, often leading to famine and social instability. In the video, food shortages are identified as a primary catalyst for the Bronze Age Collapses, as they forced people to migrate and led to the depletion of reserves, which in turn triggered social unrest and the eventual unraveling of societal structures.

💡Anatolia

Anatolia, also known as Asia Minor, is a large peninsula in modern-day Turkey. It was a significant region during the Bronze Age and is mentioned in the video as a place where harvests began to decline, contributing to the food shortages that played a role in the societal collapse.

💡Social Fabric

The social fabric refers to the network of relationships and institutions that hold a society together. In the video, the term is used to describe how the foundations of society began to unravel due to food shortages and the perceived failure of religious and political leaders to maintain good harvests, leading to unrest and the eventual collapse.

💡Pirates and Raiders

Pirates and raiders are groups that engage in unauthorized attacks or theft, often at sea. In the context of the video, the increase in piracy and raiding in the Aegean Sea is highlighted as a consequence of the societal collapse, as trade routes became insecure and the decline of central authority led to a rise in lawlessness.

💡Mycenaeans

The Mycenaeans were an ancient Greek civilization that flourished during the Late Bronze Age. The video discusses how the great palace centers of the Mycenaeans 'went dark,' signifying the decline and eventual collapse of their civilization due to a combination of factors, including trade disruptions and invasions.

💡Hittites

The Hittites were an ancient Anatolian people who established a major empire during the Late Bronze Age. The video mentions the Hittites' panic in response to the crisis, as they moved troops to secure their copper supply and set up emergency smithies to produce weapons, indicating the desperation and the military response to the unfolding collapse.

💡Refugees

Refugees are people who are forced to leave their homes due to violence, persecution, or disaster. In the video, the arrival of refugees from the Aegean on Egyptian and Hittite shores is discussed as a consequence of the societal collapse, bringing tales of destruction and contributing to the spread of chaos.

💡Sea Peoples

The Sea Peoples were a group of seafaring raiders and migrants who are believed to have contributed to the Bronze Age Collapses. The video describes them as an 'unstoppable tide' that brought chaos and destruction to the coastal regions, leading to the burning of cities and the further destabilization of the Bronze Age societies.

💡Systems Collapse

Systems Collapse is a theory discussed in the video that explains how societies can collapse due to the high costs of maintaining complex systems and the inability to deal with multiple major problems simultaneously. The theory suggests that while complex societies can handle minor shocks, they are more vulnerable to major crises that can lead to their collapse, as seen in the Bronze Age Collapses.

💡Interconnectedness

Interconnectedness refers to the state of being closely linked or connected. In the video, the term is used to describe how the complex systems within societies are so interdependent that when one system fails, it can lead to a cascade of failures, ultimately contributing to the collapse of the entire society, as was the case with the Bronze Age civilizations.

Highlights

Speculation on the Bronze Age collapse due to lack of conclusive historical data.

Food shortages as the initial trigger for societal collapse, possibly starting in Europe or the Eurasian Steppe.

Harvest declines in Anatolia leading to social unrest and the questioning of social order.

The role of priests and kings in ensuring good harvests and their loss of legitimacy as harvests fail.

The appearance of pirates and raiders in the Aegean Sea as a consequence of societal stress.

The decline of trade and the darkening of the Mycenaean palace centers.

The Hittites' panic and their efforts to secure copper supply by moving troops to Cyprus.

Refugees from the Aegean bringing tales of destruction and the melting down of sacred objects for weapons.

The inability to integrate refugees due to food scarcity leading to armed conflict.

The evacuation of Cyprus and the abandonment of weapon production.

The arrival of the sea peoples and the chaos they bring to the Bronze Age societies.

The collapse of the international diplomatic system and the failure of chariot armies to adapt to continuous war.

The burning of grain stores, the spread of famine and disease, and the abandonment of coastal cities.

The complete breakdown of international trade and the collapse of economic capacity.

The disintegration of central authority and the rise of localized, primitive work as kingdoms cease to exist.

The resilience of complex societies to minor shocks compared to less complex ones.

The theory of Systems Collapse and its implications for understanding societal collapse.

The lesson from the Bronze Age collapse: the importance of managing complexity and being vigilant against overconfidence in societal resilience.

Transcripts

At last we have all the pieces. Now it's time to put together the puzzle of how the Bronze Age collapses.

In this episode we're going to do something that we generally try to avoid here. We are going to speculate.

There's just no conclusive historical data on this or even general consensus among scholars, so today

we're going to present to you the line of reasoning that made the most sense to us and share with you one of the most

interesting theories about societal collapse that we found along the way

So here's how we see it. Everything starts with food shortages. At first these shortages are probably happening outside

what we think of as the Bronze Age world. They're probably in Europe or maybe the Eurasian Steppe but somewhere out there in the wild

food is scarce and people are starting to move.

Meanwhile harvests begin to decline in Anatolia. More food has to be traded for. Reserves start getting depleted.

Unrest begins. The underpinning of the social fabric of these societies starts to unravel.

Priests and kings, the mainstays of the social order, had one job in the eyes of the people: to make sure that the gods

granted a good harvest, and as harvests decline, people begin to talk.

Quietly at first, away from the centers of power and then more openly.

Maybe these princes and prelates and their palaces aren't what the gods want. Maybe they've even angered the gods

Then reports start coming in. Pirates in the Aegean sea.

New raiders. Strange people who no one recognizes.

Because of this, trade starts to decline. And then, one by one, the great palace centres of the Mycenaeans start to go dark.

International trade begins to come apart. The Hittites panic.

They move troops to Cyprus to secure their copper supply. Emergency smithies are set up, working day and night, to produce weapons of war.

Refugees from the Aegean start to turn up on Egyptian and Hittite shores.

They bring tales of an unstoppable tide of barbaric sea people burning everything on the coast. They talk of

melting down their sacred objects to make weapons of war. Some refugees are embraced, but many have to be turned away.

There's just no food.

There's no time to integrate these foreign peoples into society. Some leave peacefully. Others arm themselves.

If there's no sanctuary, then there is only force.

Then, something happens. The evacuation order is given for Cyprus.

Smithies are abandoned. Weapons are buried. Plans are made to return and collect these weapon caches, but no one will ever return.

Then, the dark tide reaches the mainland. Sea people crash into the Bronze Age shore.

Everywhere, there's chaos. Minor kings send desperate letters back and forth asking for help,

but there's no help to be had.

Everyone's barely contending with their own disasters. And so the international diplomatic system that they had so long relied upon

begins to break down.

Meanwhile the great chariot armies begin to fall apart too. They were designed for rich kingdoms facing each other in formal warfare.

They were meant to be rolled out once or twice a year, but this is a battle of attrition.

This is a continuous war. Not the kind of neat, organized,

singular battles that they're used to. The fighting doesn't stop. And so, expensive machines and

irreplaceably trained men are lost. And yet the sea people's numbers seem endless.

The grain stores of the giant Bronze Age cities are burnt or pillaged. Famine spreads. Disease sweeps the land.

People start to abandon the coastal cities. They retreat to the defensible points, to the mountains and the hills.

Finally, international trade breaks down completely.

The complex supply chain that allowed for the production of arms and even for the farming tools of the Bronze Age is gone.

Economic capacity nosedives, and even the ability to replace losses dwindles away.

Central authority now begins to fall apart. Many kings and local rulers are already dead.

Those who aren't have little claim to legitimacy. The armed men that they used to employ, now see a better opportunity

and join the chaos. Without the central authority to direct the command economies of the late Bronze Age,

production finally grinds to a halt. Work becomes much more primitive and localized. Kingdoms no longer exist.

Only small groups trying to find a way to get by.

At last, there is nothing left to burn. Nothing left to pillage. And so the sea peoples begin to dissipate.

Egypt and Assyria were too robust to crumble completely,

but with the rest of the world collapsing around them, even these peerless kingdoms are diminished and fall into a state of decline.

Rebuilding this will take centuries.

So what does that mean for us today?

It would be easy to see this as a morality tale. A warning against complex societies and international trade.

But I think that's too simplistic of view. The Bronze Age societies were better for their complexity. Take that complexity away,

and you're just left with that same post collapse Dark Age. It's pretty hard to collapse further than that.

Without that complexity, you don't have the high levels of production to maintain cities. To provide

better tools to workers and better arm the military. Without that complexity, you can't support a population

anywhere near the size these societies grew to. And as we see, during the collapse, once you can't support that population,

there's no nice way to bring that number down. People starve and die.

Without that complexity, we don't have the social capacity for leisure required to produce art or support innovation.

Without that complexity,

we're all left scrabbling in the dirt, or killing each other for our next meal.

And it's easy to see these societies as nicely built houses of cards.

Where removing any one piece will cause them to come crashing down.

But that's not quite accurate either. These kingdoms were actually more

resilient to minor shocks than less complex societies would have been.

A smaller less organized group of people could be wiped out by just one bad harvest.

But these kingdoms were nowhere near as vulnerable to such catastrophes. Because the kings and the priests managed and

stockpiled the grain, there were always reserves if something went wrong in the short term.

But, these complex societies are more susceptible to major shocks.

In preparing for this series, James read a number of books on how societies collapse,

and there was one particular theory that resonated with him. It was the idea of Systems Collapse.

This theory, in a very, very, simplified form, is that societies add

complexities to deal with problems. If you want better sanitation, you add a sewer system.

But, each solved problem usually comes with ongoing costs.

Now you need people to run and maintain those fancy new sewer systems.

So, as a society grows more and more complex, the ongoing cost for maintaining your society grows,

and the cost for solving new problems increases. In a normal environment, this is totally fine.

The loss of efficiency due to maintenance costs on previously solved problems is offset

by the discovery of new efficiencies, better manufacturing techniques, beneficial foreign trade, new technologies.

Solving problems often creates new efficiencies as well, and so the more complex the society,

The larger the pool of resources it has to draw from, thus it can support solving ever more expensive problems.

Unless it can't. The crux of the idea sort of lays out two ways that a society collapses.

There's a slow collapse, where the cost of maintenance eventually exceeds the society's output,

and yet going back, unsolving any of your problems, costs more than you can recoup.

This is sort of what happened to Rome. To maintain their population, Rome expanded,

but then, due in part to outside factors, the cost of garrisons for all of these places

they'd expanded to essentially grew to exceed the value holding all of those places provided.

but their society had grown to depend on so many of the resources from those places

that simply giving them up would be even more costly than not doing so.

And so, since the system couldn't be unwound or realigned, eventually it simply fell.

But there's also another kind of collapse. When a series of major problems hit all at once,

and a society is complex enough that the cost of dealing with them is very high,

the society has no recourse. All of its systems are so interconnected that it can't sacrifice any one system

to deal with problems in another. And, as pieces start to fall out of the system,

their very interconnected-ness becomes a weakness and society falls apart.

So, to me, the lesson to me is not that we should make our societies less complex

Or that we should give up everything we've achieved and go back to a more basic time.

I mean, I would rather be a person of middling means today than a wealthy person even 200 years ago.

Rich folks still had to use chamber pots back then.

You couldn't call someone far away.

Getting an orange in the middle of winter was near impossible, and a simple infection could just end your life.

Rather to me, the lessons of Bronze Age collapse teaches is that even today,

we are not invulnerable. With all of our technology and industry and military might,

we stand on a fragile edifice. We can weather shocks today

that would have destroyed earlier civilizations. Droughts, the appearance of some new disease? No problem,

we can handle it, but we still have to be careful. We have to handle these incredible cultures

we've built thoughtfully and with respect.

For today, in this modern era where we can probably weather most any crisis?

If we fool ourselves into believing that we're immune, we may go on to create so many

crises of our own that we bring about the collapse of our own systems.

See you next time.