Haiti Has Collapsed: What Next?
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the state collapse of Haiti, comparing it to Somalia's 1990s scenario, with armed gangs taking control and the government crumbling. It outlines the failure of international warnings and the dire consequences, including potential destabilization of the Western Hemisphere. The script delves into the history of Haiti's gangs, their ties to the elite, and the current crisis' political dimensions, highlighting the challenges of resolving the situation through either military intervention or domestic efforts.
Takeaways
- 📉 Haiti has experienced a state collapse similar to Somalia in the 1990s, with the government crumbling and no central authority left.
- 🚨 The streets of Haiti are under the control of armed gangs, leading to widespread violence, looting, and murder.
- 🗣️ The international community, including the US and France, failed to act on repeated warnings, allowing the crisis to escalate.
- 🔄 Haiti's situation worsened after the departure of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, with gangs uniting and seizing control of the country.
- 👮♂️ The Haitian security forces are severely undermanned, with a small police force and a recently reformed military ill-equipped to handle the crisis.
- 🏛️ Gangs have attacked government buildings, prisons, and infrastructure, further destabilizing the country.
- 💡 The crisis in Haiti is rooted in a history of political instability and the disbanding of the military, which led to the rise of armed groups.
- 🤝 There is a complex relationship between Haiti's gangs and the nation's elites, with the gangs often serving the interests of the wealthy.
- 🔄 The power balance in Haiti has shifted, with gangs now seeking political control and legitimacy.
- 🌐 The potential for Haiti's collapse to destabilize the Western Hemisphere is a significant concern for neighboring countries and the international community.
- 🔮 The future of Haiti is uncertain, with potential solutions such as military intervention or financial aid carrying significant risks and challenges.
Q & A
What does the term 'Haiti has collapsed' refer to in the context of the script?
-In the script, 'Haiti has collapsed' refers to a state of complete state failure similar to what Somalia experienced in the 1990s, where the government has lost control, police forces have disintegrated, and armed groups now control the streets, leading to widespread violence and chaos.
Why did Haiti's security situation deteriorate so rapidly in March 2023?
-The security situation in Haiti deteriorated rapidly due to the coordinated actions of armed gangs who joined forces under the leadership of Jimmy 'Barbecue' Cherizier. With the Prime Minister out of the country, the gangs took advantage to launch a sustained bout of violence, attacking infrastructure and freeing prisoners.
What was the role of the Haitian National Police in maintaining security before the collapse?
-The Haitian National Police, with between 5,000 and 8,000 officers, were responsible for policing a nation of over 11 million people. However, they were quickly overwhelmed by the coordinated violence of the gangs, leading to a security vacuum.
Why was the Haitian Army disbanded in the 1990s and what was its impact on security?
-The Haitian Army was disbanded in the 1990s due to a lack of trust in the military following political instability. This led to the creation of armed groups by various factions to defend their interests, which eventually evolved into the gangs that now plague the country.
What is the connection between Haiti's gangs and the nation's elites?
-The gangs in Haiti have deep connections with the nation's elites, who have historically used these armed groups to protect their interests and push their agendas, including during elections and business disputes.
What was the role of Ariel Henry in Haiti's political landscape prior to the collapse?
-Ariel Henry served as the unelected and unpopular Prime Minister of Haiti. He was appointed by the assassinated President Jovenel Moïse and continued to hold power despite widespread protests and a lack of a democratic mandate.
What was the significance of the transitional council proposed after Ariel Henry's resignation?
-The transitional council was intended to guide Haiti back to stability by including representatives from various sectors of society, including political parties, civil society, and the private sector. However, the gangs are also trying to leverage their control for seats on the council.
How does the script describe the potential impact of Haiti's collapse on the Western Hemisphere?
-The script suggests that Haiti's collapse could potentially destabilize the Western Hemisphere due to its proximity to the United States and the possibility of a large-scale refugee crisis affecting neighboring countries and potentially leading to increased migration to the U.S.
What are some of the challenges faced by the international community in addressing Haiti's crisis?
-The international community faces challenges such as deciding whether to intervene militarily, which could be seen as colonialist; providing financial aid, which depends on the cooperation of Haiti's elites; and organizing new elections in a country plagued by violence and political fragmentation.
What does the script suggest as potential solutions to Haiti's crisis?
-The script outlines several potential solutions, including international military intervention, financial aid, and a Haitian-led initiative, but notes that each option comes with significant risks and challenges, and that inaction could lead to further suffering for Haiti's people.
Outlines
🏙️ Haiti's State Collapse and Civil Unrest
The script describes the state collapse in Haiti, akin to Somalia's situation in the 1990s, where the government has disintegrated, and armed gangs now control the streets, engaging in violence, looting, and murder. The video discusses the failure of international warnings and the inability of the Haitian government to maintain order. It outlines the immediate causes, including the gangs' coordinated violence following Prime Minister Ariel Henry's departure for a meeting, the release of prisoners, and attacks on infrastructure. The script also points out the inadequacy of Haiti's security forces, the political instability, and the blame placed on Henry and international powers for their roles in the crisis.
🔍 Deeper Roots of Haiti's Crisis and Gang-Elite Connections
This paragraph delves into the historical context of Haiti's current crisis, tracing the origins of the gangs to the disbanding of the military in the 1990s and the rise of armed groups tied to political factions and business interests. It highlights the parasitic relationship between Haiti's elite and the gangs, using violence to further their interests. The script discusses the recent gang alliance led by Jimmy 'Barbecue' Cherizier and its political ambitions, as well as the transitional council's formation and the gangs' attempts to gain political legitimacy. It emphasizes the complexity of the situation, with the gangs not just seeking power but also aiming to push through a revolution that they believe will benefit them.
🛑 The Emergence of New Power Brokers and the Struggle for Control
The script introduces new players in Haiti's power struggle, such as Guy Philippe, a former coup leader, and opposition leader Moïse Jean-Charles, who are positioning themselves to take advantage of the crisis. It discusses the potential for a grassroots revolution and the calls for amnesty for the gangs, reframing them as marginalized individuals. The paragraph also explores the possibility that the gang's alliance was opportunistic, brought together by the threat of a Kenyan police deployment. The situation's gravity is underscored by the control of key transport routes and water sources by armed groups, the humanitarian crisis, and the potential for a large-scale refugee crisis affecting neighboring countries and the Western Hemisphere.
⚠️ The Dire Outlook for Haiti and the Challenge of International Response
The final paragraph addresses the difficult questions surrounding Haiti's future, with the country on the brink of becoming a 'Caribbean Somalia.' It discusses the potential for international military intervention, the challenges of holding new elections amid violence, and the risk of a refugee crisis. The script highlights the complexity of finding a solution, with each option presenting significant risks and potential for exacerbating the situation. It concludes with a call to action, emphasizing the urgency of addressing Haiti's crisis and the potential consequences of inaction for the country's people and the region.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡State Collapse
💡Armed Gangs
💡Insurgency
💡Political Faction
💡Elections
💡Transitional Council
💡Humanitarian Assistance
💡Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
💡Refugee Crisis
💡Elites
💡Gang Alliance
Highlights
Haiti has experienced a genuine state collapse, similar to Somalia in the 1990s, with the government crumbling and armed gangs taking control.
Analysts, reporters, and diplomats have been warning about this scenario for years, but the international community failed to act in time.
The Haitian state has functionally disintegrated, leading to a situation that could destabilize the Western Hemisphere.
The immediate cause of the collapse was the coordinated violence by gangs after Prime Minister Ariel Henry left the country.
Haiti's security forces are severely undermanned, with only 5,100 active military members and 5,000-8,000 police officers for a population of over 11 million.
Gangs have attacked government buildings, police stations, and infrastructure, leading to a situation akin to civil war.
The resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry on March 11th has led to the formation of a transitional council to restore stability.
The blame for Haiti's collapse can be partly attributed to Henry's rule and the backing he received from the US, France, and Caribbean states.
Haiti's gangs have deep connections with the nation's elites, which has allowed them to become powerful non-state actors.
The gangs are now attempting to use their control over Port-au-Prince to gain political legitimacy and influence.
The situation in Haiti is more accurately described as an insurgency rather than simple gang violence.
The international community faces difficult choices, including the possibility of military intervention or financial aid, with no easy solutions.
Haiti's crisis has the potential to create a massive refugee crisis, affecting neighboring countries and potentially the US.
The gangs are attempting to leverage their power for political control, aiming to push through a revolution that benefits them.
Haiti's meltdown is a tragedy for its people and a potential threat to regional stability, requiring urgent international attention.
The crisis in Haiti is deeply rooted in historical factors and the parasitic relationship between the elite and gangs.
The international community's response to Haiti's collapse will have significant implications for the country's future and regional stability.
Transcripts
so it finally happens after years of
growing warnings from analysts reporters
and diplomats the night their scenario
actually happened Haiti has collapsed
not in the sense that we're used to
hearing the term used as a way of
describing a nation overrun by armed
gangs but a genuine full on state
collapse the sort of failure that
Somalia underwent in the 1990s the
government has crumbled leaving no
Central Authority the police forces all
but evaporated the streets are now
completely under the control of armed
groups that burn and rape and loot and
murder at will as foreign policy put it
in a recent article the Haitian state
has functionally disintegrated it gives
us very little pleasure to say that
we've been warning about this for over a
year now since January 2023 we've posted
something in the region of four videos
on the subject trying to add to the
chorus of urgency the chorus begging the
world to act before it became too late
well in this we and everyone else
raising the alarm failed the world let
any chance to act slip through its
fingers and now we're all going to have
to live with the consequences because
make no mistake the collapse of Haiti is
not something that exists only on the
news a sad story to make viewers feel
bad before they scroll onto something
else it's a real nightmare that is
unfolding a mere thousand kilometers
from Florida one that's a tragedy for
Haitians but also an event with the
potential to destabilize the Western
Hemisphere we'll come into what we mean
by that later in today's video but first
we need to sketch out how we got here
how Haiti went from being poor and
troubled to a country that is arguably
now in a state of Civil War the
immediate causes are clear toward the
beginning of March the unelected and
unpopular prime minister Ariel HRI left
Haiti to fly to Kenya for a meeting with
President William Ruto the reason was to
seal an agreement whereby Nairobi would
send a unbagged force of a thousand
policeman to Port two Prince to help
dismantle haes gangs unfortunately for
Ariel HRI though the Gang struck first
with hory out of the country' 80s Waring
criminals did something they've never
done before they joined forces under the
leadership of former policeman Jimmy
barbecue Sher The Gangs rose up in a
coordinated sustained bout of violence
over the next few days prisons were
ransacked and thousands of prisoners
were freed vital infrastructure
including airports and ports were
attacked in this The Outpost was similar
to what gripped Ecuador back in January
when a gangster Uprising saw the
government briefly lose control of the
streets but Kito had the resources to
declare a state of internal armed
conflict and deploy the military
Nationwide while things remained shaky
the government is at least back in
control Haiti on the other hand was
incapable of fighting back to see why
look no further than the employment
figures for Haiti Security Services
after the Army was disbanded in the
1990s it was only reformed in 2017 and
then more as a torian guard than an
actual military the New Yorker reports
that there are only five 100 active
members the Haitian National Police
meanwhile has between 5,000 and 8,000
officers to police a nation of over 11
million people as we've mentioned before
New York City alone has
36,000 officers with such a deficit in
numbers Hades police were quickly
overwhelmed and so the weekends of the
9th to the 10th of March saw the nation
drowned in chaos read the reports and
the details are eye popping the sort of
stuff you might expect to hear from an
actual Civil War like the one in Sudan
and indeed foreign policy has argued
that we should stop using terms like
gang violence in relation to Haiti and
instead talk about the nation suffering
an actual Insurgency and it's hard to
disagree aside from opening and burning
prisons The Gangs attacked government
buildings including the interior
Ministry police stations were torched as
was the home of police chief France ALB
the financial times reported roadblocks
and gun battles the New York Times wrote
that dead bodies are rotting on the
streets as gangs took over people's
homes refugees flooded into public
spaces desperate to find safety faced
with such violence Ariel hre's plane was
unable to land diverted to Puerto Rico
he was told by American and Caribbean
leaders to resign on Monday March the
11th he did exactly that making way for
a transitional Council that's intended
to guide Haiti back to stability for
many the blame of hai's collapse can
therefore be laid at hre's feet
certainly the M man and neurosurgeon
played a big part in it never elected H
was appointed to his post in mid 2021 by
President Hoven Al Moy just 2 days
before he himself was assassinated
despite his lack of mandate hory then
assumed control of the government
promising to hold already delayed
elections instead he kept delaying them
clinging to power even as the country's
last elected officials saw their terms
expire even as his popularity sank and
gang seized control of 80% to Port two
Prince was too weak to do anything to
slow the building crisis so yeah it's
probably fair to say that Ariel R should
shoulder a lot of the blame for this
debacle as should the countries
including the US France and multiple
Caribbean states that propped up his
rule to quote the times the catastrophic
situation Haiti finds itself in today
was not inevitable it is a direct result
of the dithering And Delay by onri and
his government who until recently had
the firm backing of the United States
and other Regional Powers but to say
that the current situation was wholly
the fault of hory or his backers is to
ignore the longer history the deeper
reasons why haes gangs were able to
execute a takeover
that the equally brutal gangs of Ecuador
were just unable to pull off the deepest
reason of all the Twisted connections
tying haes gangs firmly to the nation's
Elites back in the 1990s Haiti was
emerging from a long period of
dictatorship and instability baby Do's
regime had fallen in 1986 and the 1991
military coup had removed the nation's
first democratically elected president
Jean betran arist from Power this led to
a 1994 intervention that restored arist
but with trust in the military now so
broken the president disbanded it
speaking to the financial times
Professor Robert fashon explained what
happened next when he disbanded the Army
he had all kinds of political factions
including RS dday himself who started to
create armed groups that would defend
the interests of those particular groups
and I'm talking about a wide variety of
people in the business Community people
in conflicting political parties the
quote ends now these armed groups would
become the seeds of today's gangs not
simple Street hoodlums but non-state
actors with Elite connections who would
use the threat of violence to push Elite
interests that might include gangs
forcing everyone living in their
territory to vote for a specific
candidate it might involve settling
business disputes with bullets the point
is that a parasitic relationship
developed between haes 1% and the gangs
terrifying its streets just take the
leader of the new gang Alliance Jimmy
barbecue shizer according to the
economist teresio founded his gang G9 in
2020 a time when there was a growing
protest movement against President H
mois allegedly Moise used G9 against the
protesters keeping the streets quiet
through fear the reporting group inside
crime claims that G9 got half its
funding from the president in this era
we need to stress that such a situation
was not unusual in Haiti recent attempts
by the USA and Canada to sanction those
connected to the gangs have discovered
evidence linking everyone from Business
Leaders to Senators to these armed
groups no the point is not that Moise
was a criminal but the effective ly ha's
entire Elites the only thing that's
changed in the last couple of years is
the Power Balance has shifted in favor
of the gangsters here's Insight crime
again prime minister hre's resignation
underscores how for the first time
street gangs that once answered to
political and economic Elites have now
emerged as Haiti's dominant power
Brokers we can see this clearly just by
looking at the fight now surrounding
ha's plan transitional Council mandated
by Regional group CARICOM the
transitional council is supposed to be
Gathering of seven members plus two
non-voting observers from across hai's
political Spectrum AP news reports that
seats have been reserved for groups like
Civil Society leaders Montana record
former president RSD day's old party
fany lavalas the parties of other former
presidents Ariel hre's December 21st
agreement group and also the private
sector on top of that representatives of
civil society and the religious sector
will have Observer seats the time of
writing though the gangs are trying to
use their leverage to get seats on the
council Shier for example released an
audio message on WhatsApp that seemed to
threaten the families of anyone who
joined a council that excluded the gang
saying I'll know if your kids are in
Haiti if your wives are in Haiti if your
husbands are in Haiti as the New York
Times summed up what is the parent is
that the gangs are trying to capitalize
on their control of PTO Prince the
capital to become a legitimate political
force in the negotiations being broken
by Foreign governments this is why
foreign policy insists that we should
try to understand the situation in Haiti
not through the lens of gang violence
but through the lens of Insurgency these
guys are not just out for money and
business opportunities they want to take
political control of Haiti to push
through a revolution that they feel is
going to benefit them in his audio
message for example Sher talked about
how hre's resignation was only the first
step in the battle a battle that seems
to have at least a faint political
dimension in past interviews Sher has
tried to frame his actions as an anti-
Elite Uprising talking to the New Yorker
he drew a distinction between the
lighter skinned haian Elites and darker
skinned residents like himself who he
characterized as black his goal he said
was to ensure Haiti's black people took
charge of their own Destinies to be
clear we're not suggesting you empathize
with Sher here the man is a psychopath
who has overseen a gang Infamous for
randomly killing civilians and using
rape as a tool of Revenge what we are
trying to do is show how Haiti's
meltdown has more in common at this
point with a full-blown Civil War than a
temporary breakdown in law and order the
Sher and other players aren't just
trying to get their kicks looting and
killing but are actively aiming to take
over the Haitian State among these other
players perhaps the most prominent
figure is Guy phip a former coup leader
who was recently released from a US
prison after serving a six-year sentence
for moneya laundering and drug
trafficking now guy Philip's position is
different to that of Shier although the
two seem to be working together Philipe
is not exactly a gang leader so much as
a guy trying to start a Grassroots
revolution in this he's helped by
opposition leader Moise John Char whose
P diline party was offered a seat on the
transitional Council only to refuse it
right now Char and Philipe appear to be
plotting to use this crisis to bring
themselves to power as part of his
positioning guy Philip has started
calling for an amnesty for the gangsters
trying to reframe them as marginalized
people with no other choice talking to
the times he claims those young girls
those young boys they have no other
opportunity to by starving or to take
weapons they choose to take weapons
still while the current crisis may have
a political Dimension there are also
signs that the gang's New Alliance was
also opportunistic United Nations human
rights expert William O'Neal for one has
argued that the Kenyan police deployment
Ariel onri or went abroad to agree put
fear of God into the gangs whose members
are mostly teenagers fearing defeat if
the mission went ahead they instead
combined forces to ensure the deployment
would never happen if that's the case
then they succeeded after hory resigned
and Haiti plunged into Anarchy Nairobi
indicated its police wouldn't be
deployed after all and likely with good
reason with the way things stand now
it's hard to see how anything aside from
Full military intervention could restore
order at the time of rising March 15th
things in Haiti are still in a truly D
State nearly the whole of ported Prince
is under the control of the gangs inside
crime reports that key transport routes
and 90% of water sources have also
Fallen to the armed groups up to 5.5
million people are in need of
humanitarian assistance with key ports
for importing food affected by the chaos
it's thought 1 million could be on the
brink of famine meanwhile over 350,000
are internally displaced driven out of
their homes by the fighting all of which
returns us to the pressing question of
what happens next what happens now that
Haiti appears set to become a North
American Somalia sadly this is not an
easy question to answer one possibility
is that the International Community
accepts the need for another military
intervention a mere 7 years after the
previous un Force left Haiti indeed the
hill reports that a recent zoom call
between representatives of caracon the
US Canada France Brazil and Mexico ended
with the insistence that members of
Haiti's new transitional Council must be
supportive of an International Security
mission to be eligible for a seat but a
military intervention is easier said
than done not least because no one knows
who will lead it the United States is
long refus to lead another Haiti Mission
lest it be portrayed as a colonialist
adventure Canada Brazil Mex have all
previously ruled themselves out nor is
the un's divided Security Council likely
to be able to agree on the Contours of a
bigger Mission than the Kenyan police
appointment it doesn't help that some
aspects of patient Society are fighting
hard against outside interference
fearing it will keep up the cycle of
instability and intervention on the
other hand Haitian born Professor Robert
Fatam told the financial times that it
might be necessary in his words the
situation is catastrophic for so many
people in the capital city that one can
probably assum assume that if there is a
foreign intervention that would be
effective enough to stop the violence
and tame the gangs that there would be
support however he goes on to add that
it would have to succeed in its goals
very quickly lest drawn out fighting
turn the population against it an ofed
alternative to foreign military
deployment is some kind of Haitian Le
initiative although we should note that
no one is sure if even such a thing is
possible at this stage colonist Lydia
paulg green suggested it could work but
quote it will require a leap of faith
and a whole lot of help financial and
otherwise
of course financial help even if large
is preferable to a military intervention
that could turn into a quagar but it
depends on hai's Elites working together
in ways that have eluded them for years
to solve the country's political
gridlock unfortunately it's not even
clear how that gridlock could be solved
the key demand since before Ariel enri
was even appointed to office has been
new elections but it's hard to see how
it's physically possible to hold them
amid such violence even if the gangs
could be convinced to allow free and
fair elections foreign policy points out
that it likely wouldn't result in a
long-term change as we covered earlier
the majority of haes Elites are
connected to the gangs and with a
fragmented system of over 250 registered
political parties any election might
just create new gridlock and new
resentments without fixing anything
faced with such a complex crisis it
might be tempting for leaders to just
throw up their hands and to declare well
what can we do about it and walk away
but for governments in the Western
Hemisphere that is unlikely to be an
option if hai's collapse isn't arrested
then we can expect the mother of all
Refugee crises already things are
becoming increasingly chaotic near the
border with Dominican Republic and hai's
immediate neighbor won't be the only one
to be affected in the US there's a
growing fear in the White House that
hai's meltdown will spark an exodus by
sea that small boats each carrying
hundreds of Haitians will try and make
the dangerous journey to Florida's
Shores to escape the unrest according to
CNN Washington is drawing up emergency
plans to turn part of Guantanamo Bay
into a processing center for Haitian
refugees but that will still require
dangerous ay interceptions by the US
Coast Guard and what if the Haitian
people themselves will Regional
governments really be willing to leave
them at the mercies of violent gangsters
and Warlords and look these are not
questions with easy answers and it
remains to be seen what the global
Community will do with nothing but bad
or unworkable options on the table it's
hard to see any way out of the growing
crisis yet doing nothing could easily
turn out to be the worst option of all
and as we end today's episode then it is
with ha in a state of freefall with a
country 2 hours flight from Miami in
danger of becoming a Caribbean Somalia
with all the instability that that could
imply and we'll be honest here we don't
have a solution for this each potential
option from military intervention to
Simply washing our hands of it comes
with Myriad pitfalls and ways It could
wind up making everything a thousand
times worse the only thing we can say
for certain is that something does need
to be done because Haiti is now sliding
into the abyss and the longer our
leaders wait to act the worse it could
get and the more acute the suffering of
Haiti's Ordinary People could
become
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