Who Will Win In 2024? Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys For Predicting The Next President

Summary

In this enlightening discussion, Professor Allan Lichtman, developer of the '13 Keys to the White House' system, shares his predictive insights on presidential elections with Chris Cuomo. Lichtman, who accurately predicted the outcomes of the last ten presidential races, explains the empirical origins and methodology behind his keys, which he developed with a unique collaboration in 1981. He discusses the keys' historical accuracy, their application to past and future elections, and the implications for the 2024 race, emphasizing that elections are about the strength of the White House party rather than individual candidates.

Takeaways

• 🔑 'The 13 Keys to the White House' is a predictive system developed by Professor Allan Lichtman that has successfully forecasted the outcomes of the last ten U.S. presidential elections.
• 🤝 Professor Lichtman collaborated with an earthquake prediction expert, Dr. Valer Kyus Borak, to apply geophysical methods to political forecasting, reconceptualizing elections in terms of stability and upheaval.
• 📚 The system is based on 13 true/false questions, with 'true' answers favoring the re-election of the White House party; if six or more keys are false, the party is predicted to lose.
• 🔍 Lichtman's method involves analyzing historical election patterns from 1860 to identify factors associated with political stability or 'earthquakes'.
• 🏛️ The keys primarily measure the strength and performance of the White House party, with only two keys pertaining to the candidates themselves.
• 🎯 The prediction system has been recognized in academic journals and by the media, despite initial skepticism from the professional forecasting community.
• 👥 Lichtman believes that the keys are robust and can accommodate various candidate characteristics, including race and gender, without needing to be adjusted.
• 📉 The keys do not work for predicting primary elections due to their multi-faceted and dependent nature, unlike the binary nature of the general election.
• 📈 Lichtman suggests that the keys might indirectly influence other factors, such as reducing third-party votes or social unrest, by addressing doubts about a candidate's capacity.
• 🗳️ The system has historically been accurate, with only a couple of controversial elections being problematic, and Lichtman argues that the keys are more reliable than polls.
• 💬 Lichtman criticizes the focus on polls and negative campaigning, advocating for a shift towards substantive issues and visionary platforms that can leave a lasting impact on the country.

Q & A

What is the basis of Allan Lichtman's prediction system for presidential elections?

Allan Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 keys that he developed in 1981, inspired by the methods of earthquake prediction. These keys measure the strength and performance of the White House Party and are used to predict election outcomes.

How did Allan Lichtman collaborate with an expert in earthquake prediction to develop his system?

Allan Lichtman met Valer Kyus Borak, an expert in earthquake prediction, at Caltech in 1981. Borak suggested using the methods of earthquake prediction to forecast elections, which led to the development of the 13 keys.

What is the significance of the 13 keys in predicting election outcomes since 1860?

The 13 keys have been used to analyze every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and have been found to be highly accurate, with minimal error, in predicting election outcomes based on patterns associated with political stability or upheaval.

How does Lichtman's system differentiate between stability and upheaval in elections?

Lichtman's system uses a set of 13 true/false questions, where an answer of 'true' generally favors the re-election of the White House Party. If six or more keys are 'false', the White House Party is predicted to lose.

What was the reaction to Lichtman's prediction of Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1982?

Lichtman faced criticism from the professional forecasting community for his prediction of Reagan's re-election during a recession and with low approval ratings. However, his prediction turned out to be correct.

How does Lichtman's system account for the charisma of a candidate?

The system includes keys that assess whether the incumbent party candidate or the challenging party candidate is a once-in-a-generation, broadly inspirational figure who can convert a significant number of opposition voters.

What is the role of the 13th key in Lichtman's system?

The 13th key assesses whether the challenging party candidate is not a once-in-a-generation inspirational figure. It is phrased negatively ('not') because an answer of 'true' favors stability for the White House party.

Why does Lichtman believe that the two-party system in the United States is problematic?

Lichtman criticizes the two-party system for leading to a battle to the bottom in terms of candidate quality. He argues that it results in a focus on the negative aspects of the opposing candidate rather than on substantive policy issues.

What is Lichtman's view on the importance of the party conventions in the prediction process?

Lichtman waits until after the party conventions to make his predictions because some of the keys, such as the contest key, can be influenced by the convention outcomes and the subsequent unity or division within the parties.

How does Lichtman respond to critics who argue that his system is subjective or relies on judgment?

Lichtman argues that while the keys involve judgment, they are not arbitrary. They are based on extensive historical analysis and are applied consistently over time, with clear definitions that constrain how each key is answered.

What is the historical accuracy of Lichtman's 13 keys in predicting presidential elections?

According to Lichtman, the 13 keys have been 100% accurate in predicting the outcomes of presidential elections from 1860 to 1980, with minimal error.

How does Lichtman's system address the role of third-party candidates in elections?

The system includes a key that assesses the presence of a significant third-party candidate. If a third-party candidate is polling at 10% or more, it counts against the White House party, indicating discontent with the governing party.

What does Lichtman suggest about the impact of campaign messaging on election outcomes?

Lichtman suggests that campaign messaging, particularly negative messaging, has a significant impact on election outcomes. He criticizes the focus on negative campaigning and the reliance on polling data, which he believes can be misleading.