AI Predictions ― 2024 to 2030 ― Year By Year Breakdown w/ Insider Info
Summary
TLDRThe speaker revisits AI predictions, acknowledging past inconsistencies and offering an updated outlook on AI's trajectory to 2030. They discuss anticipated milestones like the release of GPT 5 and commercial robots, the potential for AGI by 2027, and the broader impacts on society, including job displacement and new economic paradigms. The script suggests a period of disillusionment before breakthroughs lead to a 'New Renaissance' by 2029, with AI and robotics becoming integral to daily life.
Takeaways
- 🔮 The speaker anticipates a 'down term' for AI, with a period of disillusionment ahead but maintains a long-term optimistic view.
- 🤖 There is an expectation for incremental improvements in AI models, with GPT 5 and Claude 4 expected to be released around late 2024 or early 2025.
- 📉 The speaker notes a slowdown in AI breakthroughs due to increasing costs, but an acceleration in the release of foundation models.
- 🧩 The multimodality aspect of AI is set to expand, with more AI demonstrations from tech giants, despite some being exaggerated or misleading.
- 🤖🏭 The release of commercial and domestic robots is expected to be a significant development in the AI and robotics space.
- 🏢 For 2025, the speaker predicts a year of disillusionment as AI models like GPT 5 and Claude 4 may not reach the AGI level as hoped.
- 📊 AI models are expected to reach the 95th percentile across multiple benchmarks, which traditionally signals a 'solved problem' in machine learning.
- 💼 2025 may see more enterprise deployment of AI, with small and medium businesses leading the adoption curve due to their agility.
- 📈 By 2026, AI models are predicted to be 'Enterprise ready' and considered the first true general-purpose models, potentially qualifying as AGI.
- 🚀 The year 2029 is envisioned as a turning point, with the onset of new technologies like commercial nuclear fusion, quantum computing, and advanced AI leading to a 'New Renaissance'.
- ⏳ The speaker expects societal and economic shifts by 2030, possibly introducing concepts like post-labor economics and the potential for longevity escape velocity.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video script?
-The main topic of the video script is the prediction of future milestones in the field of artificial intelligence, robotics, and their impact on society and the economy from the present until 2030.
What does the speaker believe about the current state of AI and its future developments?
-The speaker believes that although AI is entering a period of disillusionment and slower progress, they remain optimistic about its future. They predict incremental improvements and multimodal capabilities in AI, along with the release of more commercial and domestic robots.
What is the expected timeline for the release of GPT 5 and Claude 4 according to the script?
-GPT 5 is expected to be released in late 2024 or early 2025, and Claude 4 is also expected around the same time.
What does the speaker mean by 'diminishing returns' in the context of AI models?
-The speaker refers to the point where further advancements in AI models become more expensive and less impactful, suggesting that the pace of breakthroughs will slow down even if the release of models becomes more frequent.
What is the speaker's view on the current benchmarks for measuring AI intelligence?
-The speaker is critical of the current benchmarks, stating that they are not particularly useful or helpful for measuring real intelligence, as they do not account for long-term horizons, chaotic environments, adaptation, or real-world application.
What are the speaker's predictions for the year 2025 in terms of AI adoption and impact?
-The speaker predicts that 2025 will be a year of disillusionment, with AI models like GPT 5 and Claude 4 not reaching AGI but showing significant improvements. They also expect more enterprise deployment of AI tools by small and medium businesses.
What does the speaker anticipate for the year 2026 in the AI industry?
-The speaker anticipates that 2026 will be the year when AI models are considered enterprise-ready, with general-purpose models that can be applied across various industries and modalities.
What is the speaker's perspective on the geopolitical situation and its relation to AI by 2028?
-The speaker suggests that 2028 might be a critical year with a potential new arms race and conflict with China, coinciding with the mass integration of AGI and robotics, which could lead to mass layoffs and become a significant political issue.
What does the speaker envision for the year 2029 in terms of technological advancements?
-The speaker envisions 2029 as the beginning of a new renaissance with the mainstream adoption of quantum computing, commercial nuclear fusion reactors, and the widespread impact of AI on various fields such as material science and genetic engineering.
What is the speaker's long-term outlook for the year 2030 and beyond?
-The speaker's long-term outlook for 2030 and beyond is optimistic, predicting the start of a new golden era characterized by the intelligence age, where AI and other technologies will reshape the economy, society, and geopolitics, potentially leading to a new paradigm of post-labor economics.
What does the speaker suggest about the potential societal and economic changes due to AI and automation?
-The speaker suggests that AI and automation will lead to significant societal and economic changes, including the need for new economic paradigms such as post-labor economics, and the potential for universal basic income (UBI), while also highlighting the challenges of finding meaning and purpose in a post-labor society.
Outlines
🤖 AI Predictions and the Trough of Disillusionment
The speaker revisits their AI predictions, acknowledging a recent shift in their stance due to new insights from industry insiders. They clarify that while they expect a period of disappointment with AI, they remain optimistic. The summary of expected milestones from 2024 to 2030 is based on these insider perspectives. The speaker predicts incremental improvements in AI models like GPT 5 and Claude 4, with a focus on cost and the pace of breakthroughs, and hints at the potential for commercial and domestic robots to make significant impacts by the end of 2024.
🔮 Anticipating the Future of AI and its Enterprise Integration
The speaker forecasts that AI models will reach the 95th percentile across various benchmarks by 2025, which traditionally signals a 'solved problem' in machine learning. They discuss the limitations of current benchmarks and the need for new ones that better measure real-world intelligence. The expectation is that refined, cost-effective AI models will lead to increased enterprise deployment, particularly among small and medium businesses. However, there's skepticism among enterprise corporations about AI's readiness for large-scale integration, suggesting a slower adoption rate at the enterprise level.
🏢 The Path to Enterprise Readiness for AI Models
The speaker anticipates that by 2026, AI models will be considered enterprise-ready, following a period of disillusionment. They envision models like Claude 5 or GPT 6 as the first true general-purpose AI models, applicable across various industries and modalities. The speaker also speculates that by this time, we might be close to achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), which would significantly impact the job market and the economy, possibly leading to discussions around AI safety and job protection measures.
🎬 AI's Role in the Creation of Hollywood Blockbusters
The speaker predicts that by 2027, we could see the first feature-length Hollywood blockbuster film created entirely by AI, marking a significant milestone in the industry's use of AI. They also anticipate broader impacts of AI, including potential job displacement and political issues related to AI safety and economic policies like universal basic income. The geopolitical landscape is also expected to shift, with countries accelerating their development of AI technologies.
🚀 The Convergence of Technologies in 2029: A New Renaissance
The speaker foresees 2029 as a pivotal year when data centers, commercial nuclear fusion reactors, quantum computing, and other technologies will become mainstream, leading to a new renaissance. They predict significant advancements in material science, genetic engineering, and medical breakthroughs, contributing to a compounding effect of technological progress. This period is expected to bring about a new level of optimism and a shift in the geopolitical and economic landscape.
🌐 The Socioeconomic Shifts and the Dawn of the Intelligence Age
The speaker anticipates that by 2030, we will have entered a new era characterized by the widespread adoption of AI, which they refer to as the 'Intelligence Age'. They predict that this period will see the establishment of new economic paradigms, such as post-labor economics, and the potential realization of longevity escape velocity. The speaker also expresses hope for a new approach to finding meaning in life and reshaping the geopolitical conversation, envisioning a future of abundance and optimism.
🕊️ Hopes for a Peaceful Transition to a Technologically Advanced Future
In the final paragraph, the speaker reflects on the potential challenges and opportunities ahead, emphasizing the importance of avoiding conflict and focusing on healing the planet. They express hope for a peaceful transition to a future where advanced technologies like nuclear fusion and AGI contribute to a better world. The speaker also acknowledges the long-term nature of geopolitical healing and the need for new paradigms to address the shifts brought about by rapid technological advancements.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)
💡Disillusionment
💡Industry Insiders
💡General Purpose Models
💡Enterprise Adoption
💡Benchmarks
💡Cost-Effectiveness
💡Robotics
💡Post-Labor Economics
💡Longevity Escape Velocity
💡Intelligence Age
Highlights
Expectations of a down term and a period of disillusionment with artificial intelligence are discussed.
The speaker remains optimistic about AI despite acknowledging a disappointing period ahead.
Predictions for AI milestones from now until 2030 are based on insider industry conversations.
GPT 5 and Claude 4 are expected to be released in late 2024 or early 2025.
AI advancements are slowing down due to increasing costs, despite faster model release cadence.
Incremental changes in AI models are significant, especially in context windows and reasoning abilities.
Multimodality and AI demonstrations by tech giants are critiqued for overpromising and underdelivering.
The release of commercial and domestic robots is anticipated to be a significant development in AI.
Disney's advanced robotics program is highlighted for its potential beyond entertainment.
2025 is predicted as the year of disillusionment, with AI models not reaching AGI status.
AI models are expected to reach the 95th percentile across benchmarks by 2025.
The need for new benchmarks to measure true intelligence beyond current testing methods is emphasized.
Enterprise deployment of AI is expected to increase in 2025, with SMBs leading the charge.
Job displacement due to AI advancements is predicted to become more noticeable in 2025.
2026 is posited as the year when AI models will be considered enterprise-ready and general purpose.
AGI is anticipated in 2027, with varying confidence intervals discussed.
The geopolitical implications of AI advancements, particularly regarding China, are explored.
Potential societal and economic shifts due to AGI and robotics are predicted for 2028.
2029 is envisioned as the beginning of a new Renaissance marked by technological convergence.
The transition to a new economic paradigm, post-labor economics, is anticipated by 2030.
Longevity escape velocity and its societal impacts are predicted to be significant by 2030.
The speaker's hope for a new era of abundance and its potential to reshape geopolitics is expressed.
Transcripts
so it's been a little while since I've
done one of these prediction videos
where I just kind of lay everything out
and I realize that there's probably been
a little bit of perceived inconsistency
in my position lately so I wanted to
take a moment to clear all that up and
so what I mean is that you know like yes
I am expecting a down term uh we're
entering into the truff of
disillusionment and I do think that
we're in for a little bit of a
disappointing uh period with artificial
intelligence however I still remain
pretty optimistic so let's just dive in
and let's go over the next few years
from now until 2030 kind of some of the
Milestones that I expect to see and what
I want to tell you before we dive in is
that this is not just speculation on my
part I have been talking to Industry
insiders uh from around the world and uh
from looking at AI from various
perspectives um and conversations behind
the scenes for the last couple weeks so
I'm a little bit more oriented than I
used to be so hopefully this uh will
prove to be a little bit more accurate
than some of my predictions in the past
so without further Ado let's Dive Right
In so first how are we going to uh close
out 2024 now obviously in the past I was
predicting AGI by the end of this year
and um but you know with other people
commenting uh you know such as Leopold
Ashen Runner um it looks like 2027 is
kind of when people are settling on AGI
then the confidence intervals you know
are give and take a little bit we'll get
into that in just a minute but let's
focus on the rest of this year so GPT 5
is expected to drop uh this year as
early as fall but likely December or
early 2025 Claud 4 is um also expected
around that time um now what anthropic
is doing right now is they're working on
the rest of the 3.5 family but the
Cadence is accelerating with releasing
these Foundation models um and while I
have said that AI is slowing down what
I'm mostly looking at is the cost uh
increasing so basically the uh the break
throughs that we that we're hoping to
see are going to be happening slower
even if the Cadence of model releases is
a little bit faster cuz I was looking at
the timelines and it was I think it was
from from gpt3 to GPT 4 was a full three
years and so GPT 4 to GPT 5 looks like
it might be two two and a halfish years
so the overall Cadence is more or less
keeping up to Pace but the but there are
more or less just incremental changes
and so yes incremental changes can do a
lot particularly the incremental changes
we've seen on context Windows of
reasoning abilities and those sorts of
things we're also going to see a lot
more M multimodality obviously um some
of the demos that have been presented by
Google and Microsoft and open AI um the
demos were one thing some of them were
faked um and in many cases they've over
promised and underd delivered um but
that's kind of the news that yall are
all familiar with one thing that I think
that we're that is probably going to be
like the last you know big shocking
thing that we see this year is is the
release of more commercial and
potentially domestic robots um if you
haven't been keeping up with the news
there are so many companies in China
America and and other places that are
working diligently on humanoid robots
for various purposes Disney
interestingly has some of the most
advanced robotics programs but they're
just using it for like Dunt doubles and
animatronics and I'm like you guys have
no idea what you're sitting on you have
the most lifelike robots and you're
using it for entertainment what are you
doing anyways um I'll get off my Soap
Box about Disney so uh I think that I
think that you know cuz if you've seen
like the Boston Dynamics videos and you
and everything else coming out about
humanoid robots I think that this is
going to be the next step shift um The
Next Step change in the AI and robotic
space because again models we're we're
getting to the point of diminishing
returns with the current paradig of
models meaning that getting those next
breakthroughs is going to be
exponentially more expensive but at the
same time once you get to a certain
threshold it doesn't really matter cuz
like okay you can have like once you get
models that are PhD smart what are you
going to go after that like 10x PhD okay
sure like yes we can debate intelligence
till the cows come home um but my point
here is that 2024 we're not going to
have a whole lot more exciting news I
think robotics is going to be the next
most exciting thing um Sora and video
generators are going to be really
interesting um but I suspect that we're
going to find that getting getting to
like super crisp like Hollywood ready 4K
and 8K video is going to be a little bit
harder just in the same way that you
know language models have mastered
language but getting it to Shakespeare
we're not there yet now 2025 I think is
going to be the year of the
disillusionment where a lot of people
myself included are going to be kind of
disappointed like okay GPT 5 hit and
it's definitely smarter it's definitely
PhD level in some respects but it's not
quite going to be AGI same thing with
Claude 4 um I think it's pretty safe to
assume that GPT 5 and CL for will be out
by 2025 or probably early 2025 now one
thing that I will say is that um I
expect these models to get to like the
95th percentile across multiple
benchmarks um and you might say like
okay that sounds pretty good and in the
old Paradigm of machine learning once
you get to the 95th percentile um that's
basically considered a solved problem in
machine learning and so right now
depending on which Benchmark you're
looking at they you know anywhere from
the 40th percentile to the 85th
percentile and those last few percentage
points usually are much much harder to
to solve at least until you get an
algorithmic breakthrough and this has
happened many many times in the AI space
um obviously before Transformers um but
you know I remember listening to podcast
about um you know uh like uh decision
trees and those sorts of things and XG
boost um then when those new techniques
were introduced uh you know many many
problems went from 70th percentile to
95th percentile and then those
competitions were no longer interesting
after that so what I mean like when like
what are the implications when we get
you know to the 95th percentile on all
the benchmarks today I think we're going
to realize that a lot of the benchmarks
to that exist today are not particularly
useful or helpful which is why I've been
kind of critical of them um is because
it's like okay it's good at taking a
test but real intelligence is about
longtime Horizons chaotic environments
um and adaptation and there's not really
testing that right now so like
when people ask me like what's a good
Benchmark for intelligence I'm like
there are none right now there are
literally no good benchmarks out there
that I have been impressed by that
really measure intelligence yes some of
them are really interesting um and and
you know definitely are measuring some
aspects of intelligence such as
reasoning in an abstract state but you
know you can have the best person who's
you know great at math great at you know
reasoning and Abstract uh Concepts who
still has no Street smarts or real world
elligence or the ability to make things
happen in the real world um so first
contact with the real world is going to
be very messy for these AI models but
what I will say is that as these
benchmarks uh get met and also as we get
more distilled models more uh refined
models um that they're going to be much
more cost- effective because it's like
okay if you have a model that is
basically free to run and it's as good
as you know someone with two or three
years of experience that's going to
start turning some heads and start
replacing some jobs so I do suspect that
2025 we're going to see a lot more
Enterprise deployment what I'm hearing
out there right now is that most people
deploying AI are small and medium
businesses because they can pivot faster
and I am hearing that Enterprise
corporations are looking at this stuff
but none of the leadership are convinced
that it is Enterprise ready and we'll
talk about that in just a second um
however because the small and medium
businesses are going to are going to
start adopting more AI tools either tool
you know like co-pilot provided by
Microsoft and GitHub or tools built by
startups you're going to see a surge in
people basically either in the startup
space building these new tools or at
some of these larger companies um
building AI products for companies and
then of course you're going to have some
internal hiring for uh uh for internal
talent to deploy and utilize AI um but I
think that 2025 is still going to be a
relatively tepid year at least at the
Enterprise scale
um but smbs usually and SB if you're not
familiar with small and medium
businesses so those are those are like
the mom and pop shops up to like you
know 400 employees or so a th000
employees I'm not really sure where the
uh the the transition point from SMB to
Enterprise is today and of course
there's many intermediary steps anyways
getting lost in the weeds my point is is
that smaller companies can pivot faster
so we're probably going to see more
hiring in the startup space um and the
SMB space where AI is concerned and then
of course there's also going to be um a
lot of internal hiring at the uh at like
the Microsoft and Google and those sorts
of things um but those companies tend to
be a little bit more insular um meaning
like if you're in the club you're in the
club and they don't really like
Outsiders um they're very clickish like
that but at the same time I think that
we're going to start seeing a little bit
more jobs dislocation in 2025 um as the
uh capabilities of these models expand
but again there's a lot of skepticism um
in the SE Suite of Enterprises and I
don't just mean Tech Enterprises I mean
you know Finance law like across the
board manufacturing a lot of them are
watching it and they're like oh yeah
that's interesting we'll check on it in
a couple years so that's that's why it's
like you know sorry to throw a bucket of
cold water on it but even if we get AGI
tomorrow it's going to take a few years
to get fully um integrated into um into
the world and into the economy so that
we can all you know live post- labor
economic you know utopian Lifestyles um
but I do suspect that uh 2025 will be
the year that a lot of our benchmarks um
are broken and then we'll have to have
an entirely new set of benchmarks So
based on all of these Trends 2026 is the
year that I think that um that these
models are going to be considered
Enterprise ready um so there we're going
to be on the other side of the trough of
disillusionment um particularly with uh
you know Claude six or you know uh sorry
Claude 5 or GPT 6 or 5.5 or whatever the
models are I think that that was two
more Generations from now now are going
to be when when all of the Enterprises
on Fortune 500 all around the world um
are going to be saying this is
Enterprise ready we are ready to go and
these are going to be what are what are
going to be considered the first true
general purpose models and so what I
mean by general purpose models is
basically kind of what Nvidia is working
on which is like any like X tox or any
to any modality um because then you just
have a model that is a it is a ready to
go off-the-shelf Droid brain you can put
the same model in a car a CH y a digital
agent those sorts of things and that's
really what we're aiming for is those
general purpose models and I don't mean
just you know just text just a few tools
just audio video I mean like anything
geospatial data sensory data embodiment
data everything to everything is what
I'm really looking for for them to be
truly Enterprise ready and general
purpose and by then people might be
saying yeah this basically qualifies is
Agi honestly I wouldn't be surprised if
we call those early AGI and then what
we're talking about for AGI in 2027 2028
actually constitutes ASI because like
think of it this way if you have a
general purpose model that you can put
in a robot and that robot can perform at
the level of like basically any person
with 5 years of experience I think that
would probably constitute AGI but then
if you have you know two more
Generations later you have a model that
you can do anything with and it's
basically like every PhD on the planet I
would consider that super intelligence
so you know your mileage may vary
depending on definition but really from
a from a commercial economic standpoint
and and downstream from that from a uh
from the impact that you will feel
Enterprise ready general purpose models
is really where it's going to be at and
this is where um people are really going
to start taking notice um around the
world um now that's also two years down
the road from now so that'll be midterm
elections time so I wouldn't be
surprised if if AI starts being talked
about more in politics than it is
already being talked about also by that
time I wouldn't be surprised like if you
know you many of us have domestic uh
robots helping with cooking and cleaning
by that point um they're probably going
to be pretty expensive I know like the
first gen are going to be like $80,000
which it's like you could buy a Mercedes
for that uh a nice Mercedes um or a nice
truck like a really nice truck um but
there's also going to be so much
competition because the me the the the
electromechanical aspect of these robots
not particularly expensive and once you
get to economies of scale the chassis is
going to be $2,000 to maybe $5,000 for a
good one um but then it's the software
that you put in it it's the brain and
the integration and and the testing to
make it useful so I wouldn't be
surprised if 2026 is probably the year
that like I buy my first domestic
assistant robot maybe before then I
don't know I know that there are some
other YouTubers out there that have
bought like the the very first ones and
they you know it's like cool you test it
but it's not really useful it's not
really a good product Market fit yet the
2027 is expected to be the year of AGI
so and again confidence uh intervals
vary quite a bit so you know some people
say like 2026 5% 2027 50 to 90% 2028 to
2029 it's like seems like a foregone
conclusion at least for some industry
insiders that we will have AGI by then
but again like I said it depends on your
definition um I wouldn't be surprised if
2027 2028 is when those general purpose
Enterprise models are all PhD level now
even when you have that it's still going
to take time because there is so much
inertia for for adoption um like
governments will be paying attention
militaries will be paying attention all
corporations will be paying attention um
and what I want to point out here is
that once that excitement builds back up
investors will be pushing for Rapid AI
adoption meaning that all CEOs are
basically going to be incentivized to go
as fast as possible which is why I
always say that acceleration is kind of
the default policy the same thing is
true on the Geo political stage um
America is going as fast as possible uh
China is going as fast as possible
everyone is going as fast as possible to
develop Ai and once you get to the point
where AI is actually modifying the
landscape the competitive landscape
whether it's free market economics or
military landscape everyone is going to
be locked into that arms race now uh
once you get to this point um there's
like some of the some of the things that
are going to slow down is going to be
regulatory constraints um internal
adoption policies safety res search um
but you're also going to see a lot of
creative creative disruption I would not
be surprised if 2026 or maybe even 2027
is when we see the first like
featurelength Hollywood Blockbuster film
created entirely by AI we've got a
little bit of time before you know like
we're already seeing people stitching
together you know like commercials and
stuff with AI but that's a human doing
it and editing it what I mean is like
end to end production you push a button
and you get a you know you get a outp a
4K Hollywood grade you know movie on the
other side you know a couple hours or a
couple days later however long it takes
um it'll be a little while before models
are that good where they can produce
something that is not just you know some
postmodern art housee garbage um that
doesn't really make any sense because we
can do that now with AI but what I mean
is something that is going to like make
a billion dollars at the box office um
2027 I'm not going to put money on that
but like I wouldn't be surprised if the
first billion dollar uh box office
Blockbuster happens in 2027 or
thereabouts and that will kind of
coincide with you know AGI or whatever
um and we're going to see a lot more
again we're going to see broader impacts
we might start to see some layoffs but
really I think that it's going to be a
hot button political issue for the
following year the next election cycle
So speaking of the election cycle I
think that 2028 is going to be a really
spicy year um there's a lot that's going
to be happening uh around that time so
having watch watch a lot of uh military
insiders um interviews with generals
Admirals and other people from the
intelligence community and just
following closely on kind of the longer
term uh trends that are happening in
geopolitics I think that 2028 is
basically going to be a hey we're
gearing up for a new arms race we're
gearing up for a new conflict with China
um at the same time we're going to start
to see those Mass layoffs because again
once you get AGI you still need to you
still need to invest in it you still
need to deploy you still need to
integrate into it so I think that we're
going to be seeing like kind of having
this onew punch of a new cold war or
maybe even a hot War we'll see but new
geopolitical uh uh Conflict at the same
time that we're going to start seeing
Mass layoffs due to uh the integration
of AGI and Robotics um and so it's going
to be a very very contentious uh
election cycle and I wouldn't be
surprised if we're talking about AI
safety job protection Universal basic
income and a whole bunch of other stuff
and so it's basically going to be a
fever pitch crisis year and I'm not
basing that just off of my own stuff in
fact before I was reading you know stuff
like um the fourth turning and Ray Doo's
work and talking to a few other people
you know it's like well the it seems
like everything is going to be coming to
a head sooner rather than later and I
think that 2028 might be kind of the
inflection point another thing is that
there's a lot of commentators that
suspect that conflict with China is
going to happen between sometime between
2026 and 2032 and that election year you
know the the Advent of AGI robotics you
know Quantum Computing and fusion um
kind of on the horizon that really could
be the inflection point and one other
thing is that the clock is ticking for
China because they're facing demographic
collapse um basically the the their
their demographic pyramid is inverted
right now because they're having so few
births and it actually looks like if you
watch the news coming out of China very
closely it looks like they might might
have been lying about their population
numbers for several years so China's
population might already be shrinking in
the order of tens of millions to even
prot potentially hundreds of millions
per year again it depends on who you
listen to but it seems like a foregone
conclusion that China's population is
shrinking and that basically means that
the clock is ticking for them any big
moves that they want to do they need to
do sooner rather than later while they
still have the manpower to do it um
which means that that could move up any
timeline for any potential conflict with
China and it doesn't necessarily have to
escalate to a hot conflict and again all
that's going to be going on on the
geopolitical stage and uh and in the
meantime we're going to be having
domestic issues potentially with layoffs
and you know the economy is going to be
on fire and yet wages are going to be
stagnating total employment might be
going down by then unemployment might be
going up um and so there's going to be a
lot of anger um around this time I'm not
going to say that it's going to be like
you know the Next Great Depression or
anything like that because GE political
conflict has a tendency to um do good
things for jobs in the economy which you
know I wish that weren't true but you
know the military in Jal complex exists
you know don't shoot me I'm just the
messenger now 2029 I think is going to
be um really when most people re like
kind of his history will will record
2023 is the year that it started 2024
the year that it accelerated but I think
that 2029 is going to be the year that
everyone is like yes this is the
beginning of the New Renaissance because
this is when all the gigantic new data
centers are going to come online this is
when um the commercial nuclear fusion
reactors are expected to see first light
this is when Quantum Computing is going
to become mainstream and then all the
downstream effects of that namely
Material Science and genetic engineering
will basically you'll start to see that
flywheel accelerate and you'll start to
see real true compounding returns um
from all of these Technologies mixing
together and you know it might be a
foregone conclusion by then that like we
have ASI or whatever um robots are going
to be much more commonplace we're going
to really start to see a major shift in
medical breakthroughs longevity escape
velocity is something that people are
going to be talking about um you're
going to see more cybernetics those
sorts of things but this is basically
like the year that it all begins or the
year that it really changes and from a
from an individual perspective I suspect
that this is when we're going to start
to see a new level of optimism um kind
of akin to the post-war boom of the
1950s hopefully it doesn't it's not
delayed like cuz a con a hot conflict
with China could be devastating to not
just the two Nations but to the whole
world so I hope that it doesn't escalate
to a hot conflict and it's entirely
possible that it won't um the way that
America and China are communicating
makes me think that it's just going to
be another cold war um which okay that's
not the best thing in the world um but
that's certainly far preferable to a hot
conflict um but then at the same time
all of those you know like basic think
of the optimism of the 60s and 70s
during the space age right we're going
to have that level of optimism again and
again it's not just me predicting that
uh Ray doio fourth uh the fourth turning
a lot of these theories think that we're
that we're at or near an inflection
point and that after the inflection
point it's going to be much much better
in the future now obviously I'm not one
to live in the future but you know we
all need something to hope for and we
need some optimism um so I think 2029 is
is really kind of targeting that when uh
Enterprise level adoption is going to be
accelerating geopolitics is going to be
changing and then that will lead into
2030 which is kind of the year that it's
like okay this is going to be the new
normal so in 2030 I suspect we will have
coined a new term we might call it the
intelligence age because you know I was
just referring to like the Space Age so
you know the 60s 7s um I guess early in
the or late late in the 50s 60s and 70s
that was like the space age and then the
80s and 90s that was you know the
Information Age um and now we've had the
Grim Dark Age of the 2000s and 2010s and
early 2020s I think that we're going to
be entering into entering fully into the
new paradigm of the intelligence age or
the AI age um by 2030 this is where
we're going to be basically kind of
settling into the new normal of the
fourth Industrial Revolution um which is
why I frequently kind of compare 2030 to
like 2050 or 1950 because these Cycles
generally come in about 60 to 80 year
Cycles sometimes a little bit more
sometimes a little bit less so we are
basically overdue or almost overdue for
a new like New Renaissance or new um
Golden Era and so I'm hoping that by
2030 we are entering into that new
golden era and I've been I've been
pretty consistent on this messaging for
a while that the next 5 years are going
to be some of the hardest most painful
years because old paradigms are going to
stop working and we're going to start to
need new paradigms namely post labor
economics so when the first time that
bloom ber and Forbes and all those other
ones um talk about post- labor economics
I will be super excited um but it seems
basically inevitable uh that the that
economics as we understand it today will
just not work I do think that money is
going to stick around and I think
capitalism is going to stick around but
I think that neoliberalism is on its
last legs um and that's going to go the
way of the dinosaurs anyways that's
personal speculation um longevity escape
velocity Ray Kurtz predicts that
longevity escape velocity will come by
2030 and as many of you in the audience
say don't ever bet against Ray kurts now
I will say having read some of his older
books some of his predictions were dead
wrong but some of his predictions were
were pretty much spoton um so he his his
batting average is like you know 6.7 um
which is certainly good given the time
Horizons that he's been working on um
but this is one where I I tend to agree
that you know longevity escape velocity
all those compounding returns from AI
Quantum Computing and all the downstream
effects of that I I think that we could
achieve longevity scape velocity by 2030
um the socioeconomic shifts I think that
we'll we'll probably have something like
Ubi by then um but we'll also realize
that Ubi alone is not enough we'll need
an entirely new approach to um finding
meaning uh giving people stuff to do
that sort of thing um I also hope that
this new era of abundance will reshape
the geopolitical conversation but it
will also be a little bit early and what
I mean by early is that even if we all
have AGI and Hyper abundance it's going
to take several Generations if not
longer I mean it could take several
centuries to really kind of heal the
planet and have everyone come together
um because there's just so much distrust
and so much inertia so much geopolitical
inertia out there um I certainly hope
that we don't have any more Wars once we
have nuclear fusion in AGI because you
know the weapons that that are capable
of being produced then who was it I I
think someone said was it James Cameron
I don't remember someone said I don't
know what weapons World War III will be
fought with but World War I will be
fought with sticks and stones that's
really kind of the Paradigm that we're
looking at if I hope that we don't have
a World War III and if we don't then I
think we're going to be um all all I'm
not going to say happily ever after
because we're humans we're good at
making a mess of things but I do think
that um I do think that the hardest
point is in the uh years just ahead and
then once we get past that I think it'll
be a little bit easier for a while so
this is these are how I actually feel
like things are going to progress over
the next 6 to seven years let me know
what you think in the comments um yeah
no this is I I hope that this kind of
gets everyone on the same page again
because yes timelines are a little bit
longer than I'd hoped but I think that
also like what's that rule where people
say it's like people always overestimate
the short-term impact but underestimate
the long-term impact I'm hoping that my
predictions are getting a little bit
more grounded in reality and a little
bit more accurate to how things are
actually going to play out so thanks for
watching cheers have a good one
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