La crise du logement à Genève

Summary

The script discusses the housing shortage in Geneva, highlighting that the number of new homes built is insufficient to meet the growing demand. It attributes this to the canton's economic attractiveness, rapid population growth, and structural housing supply issues. The script suggests that to address the shortage, a significant increase in construction, possibly to 5,000 to 6,000 units, is needed. It also touches on the potential of densifying existing areas and the disparity in rental prices, urging the construction of more affordable housing to balance the market.

Takeaways

• 🏠 In 2021, Geneva saw a record construction of nearly 3,200 housing units, but the average over the past decade was only 1,870 units annually, which is insufficient.
• 📉 The low vacancy rate in Geneva is due to the canton’s economic attractiveness, rapid population growth, and structurally insufficient housing supply.
• 📈 Geneva's dynamic growth and increasing number of households, including older individuals and younger couples in large apartments, contribute to high space consumption.
• ⚠️ The current vacancy rate is extremely low, around 0.35%, indicating a housing shortage in the canton.
• 🔄 Despite recent construction aligning with demographic growth, past imbalances, particularly in the late 1990s and early 2000s, have created a persistent shortage.
• 📊 To counteract the shortage, Geneva needs to build 5,000-6,000 units in the short term and then stabilize at 2,500-3,000 units annually.
• 🌆 There is about 19% buildable land left in Geneva, which could accommodate 75,000 new housing units for an estimated 150,000 new residents.
• 🏢 Increasing density, such as constructing taller buildings and converting existing structures, is crucial due to limited land availability.
• 💰 The disparity in rent prices is significant, with high demand from financially capable individuals driving up rents.
• ⚖️ Geneva’s strict regulatory and legislative constraints slow down the construction process, and easing these constraints could speed up new housing development.

Q & A

What was the record number of housing units constructed in Geneva in 2021?

In 2021, a record number of nearly 3200 housing units were constructed in Geneva.

What was the average number of housing units constructed annually in the 10 years prior to 2021?

The average number of housing units constructed annually in the 10 years prior to 2021 was 1870.

Why is the housing vacancy rate in Geneva low?

The low housing vacancy rate in Geneva is due to the economic attractiveness of the canton, rapid population growth fueled by a positive migration balance, and structurally insufficient housing supply.

What are the two main aspects explaining the housing shortage problem in Geneva?

The two main aspects are the dynamic growth of Geneva attracting many people to settle, and the increase in the number of households, including older people living alone in large apartments and younger people occupying large apartments without children.

What is the current housing vacancy rate in Geneva, and what does it indicate?

The current housing vacancy rate in Geneva is very low, around 0.35%, indicating a housing shortage in the canton.

What would be the short-term solution to prevent the housing shortage in Geneva?

To prevent the housing shortage in the short term, it would be necessary to construct more than 3000 units, probably around 5000 to 6000 units, and then return to a pace of 2500 to 3000 units.

What percentage of buildable surface remains in the canton of Geneva, and how does this relate to the potential for new housing?

Approximately 19% of the surface in the canton of Geneva remains buildable. With optimistic population growth estimates, about 150,000 new inhabitants would require around 75,000 new housing units, which could be absorbed by the 19% of available buildable surface.

What are some of the strategies suggested for increasing the housing supply in Geneva?

Some strategies include densifying the city by overbuilding certain structures, possibly increasing the number of floors in new constructions, and considering the densification of villa zones which represent a significant part of the canton.

How does the disparity in rental prices in Geneva affect the housing market?

The disparity in rental prices, with new, high-end rentals being very expensive and many others having not evolved much over the years, creates a market tension. The high demand from those who can afford high rents drives prices up, while the weakness of tenant rights contributes to the explosion of rents.

What is the current distribution of fixed-rate mortgage loans in Geneva, and what does it suggest about the stability of the housing market?

75% of mortgage loans in Geneva are fixed-rate, with 45% having a term of 1 to 5 years and 30% over 5 years. This distribution suggests that despite the increase in credit costs, there is no expectation of a market collapse due to households being unable to sustain their mortgage payments.

What are some of the regulatory and legislative constraints that may be affecting the construction of new housing in Geneva?

Some of the constraints include increasingly stringent regulations and legislation, such as those related to noise sensitivity. There may also be issues with private law oppositions, which are more difficult to address.

What is the fundamental issue with the housing market in Geneva, and what does it suggest for the future?

The fundamental issue is the structural insufficiency of the housing supply in Geneva, which struggles to meet a robust and resilient demand fueled by solid economic growth and employment. This suggests that the housing market in Geneva is expected to remain stable rather than collapse.