Predicting investment trends by seeing the world through consumers’ eyes

Summary

In this lecture, Marius dicacos, an economist and entrepreneur, delves into the reasons behind the failure of Google Glass, the allure of cell phones, and the success of TikTok over other social media platforms. He shares his journey from a traditional financial analyst to an ethnographic researcher, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer behavior and cultural values in investment and entrepreneurship. Dicacos illustrates his points with personal anecdotes and insights from his global studies, advocating for a people-first approach in business strategy.

Takeaways

• 🎓 The speaker, Marius Dicacos, emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior and personal stories over mere numbers in investment decisions.
• 🔍 Marius shares his journey from a traditional financial analyst to an ethnographic researcher, highlighting the value of firsthand consumer insights for long-term investment strategies.
• 💡 He introduces the concept that people, not companies, dictate trends, urging investors to prioritize understanding consumer perspectives for successful entrepreneurship and innovation.
• 🕵️‍♂️ Marius spent 13 years conducting ethnographic studies across different cultures, advocating for immersive research to grasp the nuances of consumer behavior.
• 👓 The discussion on Google Glass's failure underscores the importance of consumer feedback in product development, showing that even innovative technology can fail without proper market fit.
• 📱 The analysis of mobile data usage in India reveals cultural insights, such as the use of cell phones as a means of personal space in collective societies.
• 📈 Marius explains the evolution of consumer behavior through the lens of societal development, using the example of fridges to illustrate the shift from efficiency to indulgence as economies grow.
• 🌐 He discusses the significance of cultural context in consumption patterns, suggesting that understanding these contexts is crucial for predicting market trends and investment opportunities.
• 🤔 Marius challenges the 'build it and they will come' approach to innovation, citing the need for deep consumer engagement to ensure a product's success in the market.
• 👥 The speaker introduces Shalom Schwartz's values framework to understand the dynamics of societal values and their impact on consumer behavior and decision-making.
• 🚀 Marius concludes with advice for entrepreneurs, emphasizing the importance of empathy, endurance, excellence, and managing expectations for long-term success.

Q & A

Who is the speaker of the lecture and what is his background?

The speaker is Marius Dicacos, an economist with a distinguished career in financial and investment analysis. He studied at Cambridge University and has recently moved into entrepreneurship, creating an investment firm.

What are the three main questions the speaker aims to address in his lecture?

The speaker aims to address why Google Glass failed, why people spend so much time on their cell phones, and why TikTok succeeded when other Facebook challengers failed.

What significant change in perspective did the speaker experience after meeting a psychologist and a social anthropologist?

The speaker realized that his methodology, which relied on speaking to companies for information, was incomplete. He learned that people dictate trends, not companies, and to be a long-term investor, one needs to account for people and speak to them first.

How does the speaker describe his ethnographic studies and what do they involve?

The speaker describes his ethnographic studies as a structured methodology involving six months of planning before meeting people in their homes. It includes understanding their lives, sitting with them, sharing food and drink, and sometimes even sleeping on their floors to collect their life stories.

Why did Google Glass fail according to the speaker?

Google Glass failed because it did not consider consumer feedback and concerns about privacy. It was seen as an isolating technology rather than a connecting one, which did not align with consumer preferences.

What is the speaker's view on the importance of understanding cultural context and values in investment decisions?

The speaker believes that understanding cultural context and values is crucial in making informed investment decisions. Culture and values are the invisible hand that influences behavior and consumption patterns.

How does the speaker explain the shift in values over time in society?

The speaker uses a framework by psychologist Shalom H. Schwartz, which categorizes values into four quadrants. Values shift gradually through societies and can be understood by how they get re-prioritized within these quadrants.

What is the significance of the speaker's study on refrigerators in understanding consumer behavior and investment opportunities?

The study on refrigerators helps the speaker predict consumption patterns across different socio-economic groups. It provides insights into the evolution of consumer needs and wants, which can guide investment decisions in various sectors like food and beverage.

Why does the speaker believe that cell phone usage is high in India among millennials?

The speaker believes that in collective societies like India, where family is always around, the cell phone provides a sense of personal space and an escape, allowing for personal time which is otherwise limited.

What advice does the speaker give for success in entrepreneurship?

The speaker advises focusing on empathy, endurance, and excellence while minimizing expectations. He emphasizes the importance of understanding and feeling what others are experiencing, working hard without complaining, striving for excellence in all endeavors, and managing expectations to avoid disappointment.

Outlines

00:00

🎓 Introduction to the Lecture Series on Innovation and Entrepreneurship

The speaker, Marius dicacos, introduces himself as the chairman of the Council of Entrepreneurship University and sets the stage for a lecture series on innovation and entrepreneurship. He mentions his distinguished career in financial and investment analysis and his transition to entrepreneurship. The lecture aims to address three key questions related to the failure of Google Glass, the allure of cell phones, and the success of Tick Tock. Marius promises a unique perspective on these topics, suggesting that understanding these cases can provide insights into broader societal and investment trends.

05:00

🔍 The Shift to People-Centric Investment Analysis

Marius dicacos recounts his career shift from a top analyst at a traditional investment firm to an investor running funds. He emphasizes the importance of understanding people's lives and stories over mere numbers in investment decisions. This change in perspective was prompted by a conversation with a psychologist and a social anthropologist who pointed out the limitations of company-centric analysis. Marius has since conducted ethnographic studies across various emerging markets to gain insights into consumer behavior and market trends.

10:01

🌏 Ethnographic Research and its Impact on Investment Insights

The speaker describes his ethnographic research methodology, which involves spending time in diverse locations to understand people's lives deeply. He shares examples of his studies, such as visiting the slums of Mumbai and interacting with social influencers in Brazil. Marius explains how immersing himself in different cultures has provided him with a more profound understanding of consumer behavior and market trends, which has been valuable for making informed investment decisions.

15:01

🚀 The Evolution of Consumer Behavior and its Influence on Innovation

Marius dicacos discusses the evolution of consumer behavior, particularly focusing on the use of mobile data in India and the cultural significance of family and personal space. He explores the concept of time and its impact on consumer choices, using the example of the fridge's role in various socio-economic groups. Marius suggests that understanding these cultural and behavioral nuances is crucial for predicting market trends and making successful investments.

20:05

📱 Understanding the Cultural Context of Mobile Data Usage in India

The speaker delves into the reasons behind high mobile data usage in India, attributing it to the collective nature of Indian society and the desire for personal space. He contrasts this with individualistic societies and discusses the implications for businesses and investors. Marius emphasizes the importance of recognizing cultural contexts to make sense of consumer behavior and to identify investment opportunities.

25:05

🌐 The Role of Cultural Values in Shaping Consumer Trends

Marius dicacos introduces a framework by psychologist Shalom H. Schwartz to understand how values shift and reprioritize within societies. He discusses the impact of cultural values on consumer trends and behaviors, using the example of fast food consumption across different socio-economic groups. Marius illustrates how understanding these value shifts can help predict and capitalize on emerging market trends.

30:05

👥 The Impact of Socio-Economic Status on Travel Behavior

The speaker explores how socio-economic status influences travel behavior, using the evolution of travel albums as a metaphor. He discusses the different motivations and preferences of travelers from conservative to creative and curious values, and the implications for the travel and tourism industry. Marius suggests that understanding these value-driven behaviors can inform investment decisions in the sector.

35:05

📈 The Success of Tick Tock and the Changing Social Media Landscape

Marius dicacos examines the success of Tick Tock, attributing it to the platform's ability to offer a new and engaging user experience that differentiates it from Facebook. He discusses the importance of innovation and the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer values and behaviors. The speaker also touches on the unpredictability of success in the tech industry and the importance of managing expectations.

40:14

🛠 Keys to Entrepreneurial Success: Empathy, Endurance, and Excellence

In the final part of the lecture, Marius dicacos outlines the key attributes for entrepreneurial success, emphasizing empathy, endurance, and excellence. He argues against the common narrative of overnight success and instead promotes a mindset of hard work, continuous learning, and the ability to manage expectations. Marius shares anecdotes and examples to illustrate the importance of these qualities in the world of business and investment.

45:14

🤔 Reflections on Investment Decisions and the Role of Expectation Management

The speaker concludes the lecture with a personal anecdote about an investment in a social media company that faced unexpected geopolitical challenges, leading to a significant shift in its valuation. Marius dicacos reflects on the importance of managing expectations in investment decisions and the need to adapt to unforeseen circumstances. He encourages investors to maintain a realistic outlook and to be prepared for the ups and downs of the market.

Keywords

💡Innovation

Innovation refers to the process of translating an idea or invention into a good or service that creates value or for which customers will pay. In the video, the theme of innovation is central to the discussion on why certain products like Google Glass failed while others, like TikTok, succeeded. The speaker explores the importance of understanding consumer behavior and market trends for successful innovation.

💡Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship is the act of creating a new business, bearing the risks, and enjoying the potential rewards of the venture. The video's speaker has transitioned from a career in financial analysis to entrepreneurship, highlighting the journey and insights gained from creating an investment firm and engaging in ethnographic studies to understand consumer behavior.

💡Ethnographic Studies

Ethnographic Studies involve the immersive study of people in their natural settings to understand their culture and behavior. The speaker uses these studies to delve into the lives of people across different socio-economic backgrounds, which informs his perspective on investment and entrepreneurship, as well as to predict trends and consumer behavior.

💡Consumer Feedback

Consumer Feedback is the information gathered from consumers regarding their perceptions, preferences, and experiences with products or services. The video emphasizes the importance of consumer feedback in driving innovation and shaping business strategies, as companies that fail to understand consumer needs, like Google with Google Glass, may not succeed.

💡Market Trends

Market Trends refer to the general direction in which a market is developing. The speaker discusses how understanding market trends is crucial for investors and entrepreneurs to make informed decisions. He uses his ethnographic research to predict market trends, such as the evolution of refrigerator usage in emerging markets.

💡Investment Analysis

Investment Analysis is the examination and evaluation of securities and other investment vehicles. The speaker's background in financial and investment analysis provides a foundation for his current approach, which now includes a deep understanding of consumer behavior and market trends for more effective investment decisions.

💡Cultural Context

Cultural Context is the environment in which events or behaviors occur, shaped by the values, beliefs, and norms of a particular society or group. The video underscores the significance of cultural context in influencing consumer behavior and market acceptance of products and services, as well as its impact on investment opportunities.

💡Values Shift

Values Shift describes the change in the priorities and importance of certain values within a society or culture over time. The speaker uses the framework by psychologist Shalom Schwartz to explain how understanding the re-prioritization of values can predict changes in political movements, consumption patterns, and trends.

💡Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets are nations with social or business activity in the process of rapid growth and industrialization. The speaker has conducted extensive ethnographic studies in various emerging markets, providing insights into consumer behavior and identifying potential areas for investment and business opportunities.

💡Social Media Platforms

Social Media Platforms are online spaces where users can create and share content or participate in social networking. The video discusses the success of TikTok as a social media platform and contrasts it with Facebook, attributing its success to new forms of content creation and consumption that resonate with changing consumer values and preferences.

💡Expectation Management

Expectation Management is the process of influencing stakeholders' perceptions and expectations about an organization or project. The speaker discusses the importance of managing expectations in business and investment, using his experience with an investment in a social media company that faced unexpected geopolitical challenges.

Highlights

Introduction of Marius dicacos, chairman of the Council of Entrepreneurship University, and his distinguished career in financial and investment analysis.

The speaker's transition from investment analysis to entrepreneurship and his unique approach to understanding consumer behavior through ethnographic studies.

The importance of understanding people's stories and how they influence market trends and investment decisions.

The failure of Google Glass and the significance of consumer feedback in product development.

The role of ethnographic research in Google's understanding of consumer behavior and its impact on their business strategy.

The myth of Henry Ford and the faster horses, illustrating the misconception that innovation is about building without consumer input.

The story of Alfred P. Sloan Jr. and General Motors, emphasizing the importance of consumer feedback in shaping successful business strategies.

The impact of cultural context and values on consumer behavior and the need for businesses to adapt to these factors.

The speaker's framework for understanding cultural values and their influence on consumer choices, such as the example of the fridge in different socio-economic groups.

The evolution of the fridge as a status symbol and its reflection of a society's values and economic status.

The use of mobile data in India and the cultural reasons behind the high data consumption among millennials.

The role of personal space and privacy in the context of collective societies and the use of mobile phones as an escape.

The importance of understanding 'why' behind consumer trends and the pitfalls of investing without this understanding.

The speaker's experience with predicting consumer behavior and the investment opportunities presented by understanding cultural shifts.

The concept of 'modernization without westernization' and its impact on consumer preferences in emerging markets.

The success of TikTok and its alignment with emerging consumer values and behaviors, contrasting with traditional social media platforms.

The four key attributes for success in entrepreneurship: empathy, endurance, excellence, and managing expectations.

The Stockdale Paradox and its application to entrepreneurship, emphasizing the importance of perseverance and realistic expectations.

Transcripts

so let's start good afternoon everyone

welcome to the series of lectures in

Innovation entrepreneurship

my name is Marius dicacos I'm the

chairman of the Council of

Entrepreneurship University

yes I did the initial election for those

of you that remember me

so today we have the the pleasure and

the honor to have with us

who is an economist

he studied at Cambridge University he

has a long and distinguished career in

financial and investment analysis and

recently not so recently he he moved to

entrepreneurship so he has created the

investment

firm and he's going to talk us about his

experiences so thank you thank you very

much for those of you who came here to

see an economics lecture you will be

grossly disappointed so I'm here when I

answer three questions why did Google

Glass fail

why do people like to spend so much time

on their cell phones and third why did

Tick Tock succeed

when all these Facebook Challengers

failed and I'm gonna try and give you a

very different perspective and when I

show you that I'm hoping that I will get

you to see the investment World in a

different way entrepreneurship in a

different way and it will also help you

understand which of your personal

relationships are likely to fail who of

your friends is likely to get divorced

next so it's going to be a very

different lecture than what I would have

thought I would have given maybe 20

years ago so I'm gonna go back 18 years

uh to 2004. now I had reached the high

point of my career that far I had worked

for uh 12 years and I made it to the

cover of this traditional investor which

is the most accredited well-known uh

magazine which does a survey and I was a

top analyst not only my sector but for

the whole of Europe

and I have spent 12 years of my life

analyzing companies trying to understand

the risk trying to understand what's

priced in by the stock market

and

the talk I'm giving today is a very

different perspective how did I get to

this different perspective two years

after this uh this picture was taken I

moved from Credit Suisse which is a big

Investment Bank

to be an investor and start running

funds and by the end of 2008 I was

managing about 5 billion US dollars in

in funds so you can imagine my surprise

when some stage in 2009 I met a

psychologist and a social Anthropologist

who had never met a portfolio manager

before so she asked me to explain what I

did and when I finished explaining she

turned around and said this is

fascinating but this flood is incomplete

so um when I tell the story now I

pretend that I was very receptive and I

really was constructed but I was like

what do you know who I think I am I'm

really important you don't understand

what I do but actually she had a point

she argued that

all my methodology that we follow as

economies as investment people relies on

speaking to companies the companies are

the for the source of information and

actually people dictate Trends not

companies and if you want to be a

long-term investor you need to account

for people you need to speak to the

People First

so for me that was a big change and it

caught me on this big Journey so since

2010 over the last 13 years I have

traveled from the slums of Lagos to the

middle class homes in Medellin in

Colombia through drug trafficking

villages in Mexico to the grasslands of

inner Mongolia they were growing cities

of China through rural India and 15

different Emerging Markets have done 27

major ethnographic studies where I go to

people's homes trying to understand

their their lives sit with them share

the food share their drink and sometimes

I even had to sleep on their floors

and with that I've realized that

it's more than numbers that you have to

work on and with that I became a

collector of people's stories and where

numbers told me what was happening

people's story explained to me why

things are happening and showed me a

path to the Future

this is what a typical ethnographic

study looks like here I mean the slums

in the in Mumbai this is from a few

months ago I'm speaking to a social

influencer

in in a favela in Salvador in Brazil and

it's a very structured uh structured way

that you go about in doing a ethnography

and with that I'd like to finish sorry

I'm just joking we're just starting so

um

so they start going back this is where

the sonography looks like so it's a very

structured methodology it takes about

six months of planning before you go to

the ground to meet people in their homes

like for the example these women sneha

on the left she is a low in comparison

um and we want to plan together

presentative sample of Indian youth they

say it's not enough to go and meet

somebody who goes to University somebody

who has Rich parents you need to meet

also she works she lives in the slums

her father is a driver her mother is a

maid and she also works part-time to put

herself through University so that's how

you get represented across section and

we have very open-ended discussions with

them I sometimes follow them where they

go to meet their friends in the cafe

sometimes I give them money and go to

the supermarket to see what they would

they would they would buy

and this is a study I'm about to start

on Monday and uh I am flying to I'm

starting from Goa and we're meeting with

people I'm going down to Karnataka and

traveling around Karnataka State and I

want to study the lives of migrants and

to understand the lives of migrants

so to the center type of microns

is and here is a problem I struggle

sometimes with investment people you

know you want to speak to one of my

Indian analysts and they say yes I know

Indian people you know I know they're

low income people have a mate who were

who is low income but by having a maid

who is low income it doesn't mean you

understand here you understand her hopes

her dreams her aspirations so for me to

understand these migrants what I'm

planning to do I'm going to spend four

days in a coffee plantation I will work

with the migrants I will go and pick

coffee I will sit with them I will eat

with them and I will collect their life

stories and um and I have to admit I'm a

bit nervous because I did another study

before where I went to rural India to

understand about the risk to their lives

and they have snakes that bite and they

kill you within half an hour so I'm a

bit nervous about that and that's the

type of research that you have to do so

with this I'm gonna I'm going to

have these three questions do you have

in three Innovation gifted Visionaries

or is this from consumer feedback so my

first question Google Glass who knows

what Google Glass is

excellent

I would love anybody to tell me why they

failed because Google Glass was an

amazing Innovative technology we have

seen that still is being used in

industry they did this amazing hype

launch they got their these media and

influencers you have there King Charles

Prince Charles in the old day and

they seem to have been doing everything

right why did this thing fail

is this an audience that speaks anybody

who is brave enough to shout why do you

think it failed

oh perhaps it wasn't fit for the market

maybe the demand assessment wasn't

careful enough that's actually a very

valid valid reason demand because they

did not speak to the consumer so what

happened with Google Glass they were

they were not allowing in the

restaurants concerns about privacy and

they were they'll probably killed them

you were a glass hole if you were the

Google Glass but imagine it from from

somebody's perspective if I were a

Google Glass I will have a phone like

this in my face and you're talking to me

how am I connecting with you and

responding and people want to connect

with other people so maybe it works for

industry but it doesn't work for for

these consumers I have to tell you when

I started doing this ethnographic

research which I've been doing now for

the 13 years the number one user of this

data used to be people like Proctor and

Gumball it used to be Unilever Nestle

and now the biggest user of data of this

ethnographic search is actually Google

Google has every algorithm that you can

imagine on the planet they collect if

you're talking about Big Data the

biggest data says that you can imagine

but they still need to get inside

people's heads to understand why things

are happening so after this event Google

had changed their attitude so I go back

to this quote that started me on this

journey from 2009. the company does not

dictate the trends consumer to pay the

trust and the companies have to get it

right or get it wrong and Google got it

wrong had they done proper work with the

consumers they would have seen a

different Vision now the biggest

pushback I get on this is the following

if I had asked people what they wanted

they would have said they wanted fastest

faster horses Henry Ford about the

fourth Model T

now

there is no evidence that actually Henry

Ford ever said this which is the most

coded

thing from Henry Ford coming out

actually

he did say that you can have any model

of the four Model T you wanted as long

as it's black so he actually did not

care much about what consumers thought

he produced the car and he was grossly

successful and therefore there is this

image that

if you want to innovate you build it and

people will come

here is another point though who in this

room has heard of Alfred P Sloan Jr

you have not heard of him

no okay there's a key was he wrote this

amazing book he was the head of General

Motors from the 20s on work and after it

was when I was a consultant in the 90s

and when I worked with CEOs and they

were new in their job I always gave them

this book as a gift I think is the best

management book there there is about his

travel and he has a really great vision

on looking from the consumer side so

what did Alfred peace loan did to Henry

Ford he went and spoke to Consumers and

consumers said to him uh we what will

change every year we want car that we

can afford we want to be able to trade

in our car

and all of a sudden you see this tagline

a car for every person every person ever

every purpose so when you hear this code

that you know it he would have given the

Faster Horses

4 19 20 65 market share by 1927 15. the

biggest distraction of market share they

were the leaders they got killed in 1927

they would tried to bring out the Ford

Model A too late the other guys were

already connecting with their consumers

they never caught up caught up with them

so in my head I was asked this question

why though did people want a car what

would have happened if they had that

ethnographic studies like I do and go to

Consumers home and my beliefs are

probably the people wouldn't have told

him they want to Faster Horses they

would have said we want faster and

cheaper horses that's what they would

have asked for and why does that happen

and I believe the reason is because of

the construct of time

so a car ultimately is a time saving

device

and there is a great book about the

geography of time when they looked at

different cultures and the concept of

time and they did the following three

tests they were in different cities in

different countries and then and they

measure how fast somebody walks 20

meters in the street 60 feet so they

made sure different times of the day the

person had to walk alone they went and

they gave five dollars to buy a stamp

and time how quickly it took to get this

transaction get the money back and then

finally the time accuracy of clocks in

different bags and based on that they

came up with three conclusions

the degree of urbanization and

industrialization changes the speed

people move and if you're working in a

rural area you move slower weather

affects you colder climates work faster

than warm climates and I'm not talking

about so much of the culture even

individual people when they are somebody

on warm weather how long does it take to

to tell me when it's 60 seconds have

passed they get it pretty accurately and

then you ask that person the same person

during winter and he thinks that 50

seconds at the minute has passed so the

construct of time effect is affected by

the weather and then individualistic

versus Collective societies which I'm

going to talk about further down the

line but let's first focus on

industrialization because this affects

Emerging Markets where I spent a lot of

my time these for me surprises me

because I can't understand why somebody

working in a rural area will move slower

because they are as busy apparently as

the people in the big cities when I

speak to my father he tells me that his

father who was a farmer used to work

like a slave when I asked him how many

days he didn't work he says to me none

he used to work 380 days in a year now

this doesn't match with what I find when

I'm doing as a graphic studies in

Emerging Markets so my I think my father

is not telling completely the truth I'll

give you an example this is British who

lives in rural Maharashtra and I met him

in Pune when he was in his village he is

he's he doesn't own any love he just

works in other people's lands and it's

him that's his mother with his father he

has a wife and a young daughter

they could there is a drought they only

worked about half days in a year that's

the productivity that this man has and

they could not even get two regular

meals a day

so pre uh so what British did he moved

to the city so he works when I met he

was working as a guard at the school and

then he had a rick show which is this I

don't know if you've seen them these two

like taxes with the three-wheelers he

would drive it and then when he was

working as a guard his father would

drive it his father also worked as a

waiter his mother worked as a maid and

she started this this restaurant table

of little don't see all the restaurant

imagine it like I might throw a kitchen

where she cooks for students who are in

a boarding school and his wife also

worked so imaginely you have this family

moving from a village to a city their

income increased tenfold tenfold that

means these people start imagining a

future where they can provide Better

Health Care education even some

Financial Security for their kids and

still aspiring for more and better and

with that these people now their value

of their time changes and they need

efficiency devices so this woman sortie

she was a beautician she worked out of

her home she bought one day a fridge by

having a fridge she could work three

hours more a day that means she could do

more customers than with that money she

bought a motorcycle and instead of

servicing people in the low income area

that she she lives she could go now with

a motorcycle in more in more affluent

areas and get more customers

so

what happens when people get their first

fridge

the first fridge is an efficiency device

people use it to store ingredients

leftover food or pre-cooked food

that's what saved them the three hours

when you become middle class you start

indulging yourself and your family you

store in your fridge soft Peas the soft

drinks beer butter ice cream wine and

then when you become affluent you want

to live out forever that's what the rich

want to do and it's a piece of

immortality it's fat free everything you

know probiotics diet diet food

so we can look at the evolution of

fridges in this Emerging Market from the

various socio-economic across various

socio-economic groups so you can see for

example in the Assad efficiency stage

China has an Indulgence Brazil is at the

health stage now India is going to enter

the refrigeration is going to exceed

about 50 in about three years and it

will enter an indulgent phase in three

years

that doesn't mean their fridge will look

like the middle class Chinese fridge but

I have pictures of the Indian fridges of

every socioeconomy group so I can

predict what they will be consuming more

of so when I look at it I can see a lot

more ice cream probiotics yogurt a lot

of dairy based products so when I think

about about Investments then I can go

and look for data look at from the

forest to the richest India that in

wheat what goes from 1 to 1.8 so the

reaches India had it only 80 percent

more wheat when they get rich rice one

to one point nine look at now Dairy what

happens to it 13-fold in rural areas

goes almost 20 fold so you can see what

products will benefit the most

now I'm gonna do a little parenthesis

and check my time I don't overrun

um I did this I did this research on the

on the fridges and um I wrote an article

about the woman who told me that a

fridge would change her life and it was

a very heartwarming story I wrote it

before Christmas in 2013 and I published

in the financial times and it was voted

there no it wasn't it was the eighth

most read uh blog in the financial times

in 2013. so in in 2014 The Economist

came and said what goes in a person's

fridge when they buy a fridge and I said

I've done this amazing analysis I've

analyzed all these fridges I'll give it

to you I've written this article but

I'll give it to you

um and um at the published it I think I

can't even remember

something cool developments or something

like that it was some catchy title the

economy is published as this article in

in May 2014 and at the beginning of 2015

the BBC comes to see me in my office and

I when I went to sit down with them to

see what they wanted they were four

people and they asked me are you the

father of free genomics so one day

university courses will be teaching free

genomics next to economics and I am the

one who started taking all these

pictures of all these uh of all these

fridges

so I want to go to the second question

the use of data mobile data why is it so

high for India it was a question I want

to answer and if you look at the data

usage I basically pay for 12 Giga

Mountain I use one and this guy go from

5 to 17 and we thought you know they

don't have Broadband a million excuses

so we went and did this study of

millennial youth in 2018 I spent

probably about two weeks studying 32

people's life in a lot of of detail

and what it came to realize is that

if you're a collective Society like

India you spend a lot of time with your

family the family is all around you you

don't have any personal time and the

cell phone is an escape it allows you

personal space that's how they see it so

the personal space comes by sitting on

their cell phone in a personal space

that comes also by going to a cafe even

to be alone or to be with friends it's a

search of of of of some privacy and um

and that told me economics changes in

the way I think about when we look at

the at my kids at home and there is a

very interesting study by Jonathan High

which looks at the age when

kids are left unattended to go outside

so just to wake everybody up I'm going

to ask you this question okay

who was allowed to go with nobody

watching them actually it's too risky

for a group I'll ask it anyway

who was allowed to go out unattended

from the age 12 onwards

okay

who was allowed to go from the age of

five or what

okay so let me tell you what the study

shows study of Jonathan Hyde said

anybody born before 1995

and you ask this question you were

allowed to roam the street from the air

roughly and attended from five to seven

years old and anybody after 95 generally

that shifted by eight years becomes 13

to 15. so a lot of the time we get

frustrated we used to roam the streets

to be alone a lot of the Escape before

of my kids is the time on their computer

otherwise we are in their face all day

at home asking about don't do homework

now

when I looked at investing in this team

I thought okay these people escape his

cafes we should invest and I have two

potential well I have two Investments

one in Indonesia and one in Latin

America or Starbucks but both also own

fast food and the question I have in my

head is do I want to buy this because

I'm going to end up with fast food is

fast food also a good Trend I should

invest in

and

the most important thing that the

photographers tell you is before you

invest

people we hear somebody tells us what is

happening and we think immediately I

know what's going to happen next a

sonographer tells you never ever invest

unless you understand why something is

happening and here

I don't know

why people are consuming fast food

and now let's understand that why I

cannot make an investment and if I ask

the question why do you think of people

fast food everybody has different

hypotheses so I'm gonna show you the

framework we use

the framework is that you need to

understand the cultural context and this

is the most important thing I'm gonna

talk about today

culture and values are the invisible

hand that make us behave in a certain

way culture is lived it's not

articulated and you will feel it but you

are not able to express it because you

don't have a framework for it

values are not stable they shift

gradually through societies for example

in my father's time the values are very

important in the secret society was hard

work honesty integrity and then all of a

sudden people started talking about

working smart not hard Integrity went

out of the window and then we ended up

with financial crisis kurima Etc and

then people started finding about hard

work again so values are not stable they

are almost sometimes like a ferris wheel

and they shift

for me I have adapted in this work a

framework by a psychologist called

Shalom shorts from Jerusalem University

who said that

if you can understand how values get

repriorities and shift you can explain

political movements changes in

consumption patterns and Trends and I'm

going to explain this model within five

minutes in a very simplified way

so what shorts said is think of it in

four different quadrants

here at the bottom right hand side is a

conservative quadrant think of the

values of your grandmother okay and your

grandparents do not stain the family

name sacrifice yourself for the greater

good of the family here in this

Collective societies you find that the

kids come home and they give their

parents or their grandparents all the

money and then they give them some money

or some of the money back

they the extended family is gonna pull

together to protect you somebody gets

sick in the village who is your relative

you will give your money to them and

they will pull to protect you that's

where your security and that's why you

never break any of their values because

it's like a taboo you will be ostracized

now most of the American markets I I

cover shift from this Collective values

to individualistic and they enter this

competitive quadrant that they're trying

to compete Pete and I'll do each other

through acquisition of status symbols

through grooming education

and that values shift until to this

quadrant where the individual is no

longer trying to compete with others but

they are trying to compete against

themselves so they I want to

continuously learn they want

they want to have Independence or how

they set their time and and uh and

continuous learning Learning Journey

sorry did I move it out

and then

final top right is a higher set of

values where according to short he found

that France and the the better Lex

countries were at the time with

Universalist benevolence where people

care about social justice they care

about the environment

now

very interesting when we look at it from

a political side uh short this is

positioning from the 1990s from his

studies the United States was firmly in

that core quadrant and what short and

what happened is uh September 11

happened and while you started to

conserve this it started shifting this

way and Trump is an outcome that

happened uh I out of September 11.

now for me one interesting thing that

sure says is that values in the opposite

quadrant contradict each other and I'll

give you a very simple example I used to

work for a big asset manager and we used

to say we are relentlessly competitive

of this quadrant

okay we're collaborative

short said this is

you cannot be collaborative and

competitive at the same time competition

kills collaboration so in our firm we

try to stifle that because we need to be

collaborative a photography is a

collaborative process the same thing you

know Japan never achieved what they

could really achieve this quadrant

because they're very traditional not

because they buy all the time and how

the angles that you have to bow but you

have 12 I became to power that had 12

percent of women in my Nigerian

positions he said he was going to make

it to therapy and he failed abroad the

targets down

now

I said at the beginning I'm going to use

this model I'm going to explain to you

to predict which relationships are

destined to fail and who which of your

friends is going to get divorced next

I'll give you a simple example I have a

friend he is very family in this

quadrant he lives and he works in a band

he drives a Porsche he's a very flashy

guy and couldn't entertain amazing nice

guy his wife is a film director she

travels around poor areas and does

social justice videos the two values are

opposite each other so for every single

when he wants to buy a Porsche she wants

to

you know bashed his head on the wall and

when she talks about the people in the

Islams and the social justice she he

gets so annoyed with his

self-righteousness and she he gets on

his nerves so one night we were having a

few too many drinks and said to him you

know you realize that when he was

complaining and like his wife doesn't

understand me I said you know you're

going to get divorced in the next five

years and within three years he got

divorced but the worst thing was that he

went to his wife and said tazos told me

we would get divorced you never

understand me you know what I said so

she stopped talking to me yeah but so

people in this opposite it doesn't it

doesn't work so many times when if your

friends come and say oh I broke up with

her or him and there were horrible they

were this they were never horrible

excited they were here you're here and

you started working together and any an

alignment of values and beliefs is core

to any long-term partnership whether

this is a business relationship whether

it's a marriage or a commercial

relationship it's really important and I

don't believe you can never move away

from being acquaintances to real friends

unless you really understand the other

person's values and where these people

are coming are coming from so I did this

long

a side track because I want to show you

about fast food and the question so when

I I looked and I I looked at fast food

consumption and food consumption in

general by socioeconomic group let me

tell you how it works when you're

conservative you basically eat at home

and you have guests at home the men go

outside they would cook a souvla these

are the women they eat they cook and

gossip the men cooking because if they

drink beer and the two are separated

right then what happens when you become

competitive you start catering and if

your cousin catered you know this food

from this really good Chef you're gonna

cater from a sushi restaurant and they

will get upset and they were gonna cater

next time for me Vietnamese and they try

to outdo each other fast food a lot of

fuel Emerging Markets don't really like

it they're not used to it so in

Indonesia they tell me they don't eat

beef they eat twice a year so do they

like McDonald's no but it's a bunch they

put on their shoulder to brag to their

friends that you know I went to it goes

to the village and said I ate McDonald's

it was these you know this clown biting

and these flavors burst in my mouth it

was amazing and you know it's just that

is it's a sign of competitivity I give

you I think about this okay I went for

coffee today to where did I go to brew

bro I want to brew is a badge on my

shoulder and the next guy comes and says

yes but I go to collaborative another

badge on the shoulder and we all go yes

but blue is better done because I have

better taste I know I don't like it so

all these are indications of the values

where you are now what happens when you

people move to the Squadron there they

find little places flavors from their

own country that try to explore

different countries Cuisine they will

eat you know Vietnamese food and read

about Vietnam and they want to have

different different things from the

culture and understand it

now

I'm going to give you one more example

when you go

to people's home I asked to look at

their albums for the last 30 years and

the albums look like something like this

they visited their grandparents to go to

their home towns of crowded trains and

now they become tourists with their

friends they go by plane

I'm gonna make a hypothesis who knows

what what two operators are packaged

tools that you buy you all know right

good I want to make hypothesis you

should invest your money on package

through operators in this country yes or

no who would invest it

which country

this country that I just showed you the

pictures of

there we now are traveling with a

nuclear family by Friends by plane who

would invest this

so the company is based

industry yes would you invest it in

package tours

preset six cities in seven days yes or

no

why

uh I don't think the consumers I don't

want to you know offend anyone but I

don't think they look like people who

can afford it first okay that's one of

you any other View

okay it's too specific it's too specific

a package tool contains approximately

five to six countries so what if I spend

half the money

researching about the trip three months

before

visiting 10 countries and I always have

the money all right people for research

and know how 2022 Works will not invest

in this what are what values do you

think those people who research have I

showed you those quadrants show me here

where are those people what quadrant do

you think they are

oh

with the very right side in the middle

who continuously research study and they

look so you have a very specific and I

think you got the right answer though

because the answer is it depends

what I just did I try to do a trap for

you and this is what happens to

investors all the time I gave you

information I told you what is happening

I told you I didn't tell you why this is

happening when people came up with views

and that's what we do as investors all

day

oh sorry

this perfect so let me show you the by

this framework to explain so what

happens when you have conservative I'm

gonna ask you questions so yeah they

when you're conservative you go by train

to visit your family you're gonna be

going to see your family because family

is really important to you you never get

on a plane when you're competitive let

me tell you we're gonna do you're gonna

travel six cities in seven days You're

Gonna paste it on Facebook every single

picture goes on Facebook every meal you

eat you're gonna paste it on Facebook

make sure your cousin who who got that

catered meal and try to be smart show

him what travel is like that went

through through operating works and what

happens when you become creative and

curious you basically want to go and

learn from destination so India might be

still here China is too late it's there

I went to I was seeing this woman in

China looking at her albums and she had

been to Japan and I was seeing all these

pictures of Japan this toilet do you

know what Japanese toilets look like

with the sprinklers and the automatic

sea is going up and down and then when I

did the tour of her house she bought the

Japanese toilet embroidery and installed

it in China so you go you travel and you

want to bring these new things with you

that you've learned from this from this

place

so now that we understand yep uh could

you please go to the previous slide okay

so yeah that's it no no the next one

performance that one so you asked me

before where I think that somebody who

researchers it yes and I'm not I don't

think it's creative and curious and let

me explain to you like some of

researches is not

how you actually describe the person I

just

described his actions it's a guy who is

also conservative and compassionate why

because the conservative person yes

and the compassionate person usually

wants to save money therefore I said

that he researched before about it not

not actually to explore exotic

destinations I said here but to save

some money and time

yeah so therefore he wants to do a more

free travel so he wants to travel home

by train he wants to domestic travel he

wants to save up money he wouldn't mind

exploring exotic destinations yes so

he's like the average of the three in my

opinion yeah no no you have a very valid

point there saving you you brought a few

things together you're right these two

could be either yeah the guy whose

values are here can tell you what they

do they will research value for money is

really important for them because

exactly they want them to stretch their

money for their family as much as

possible because there's a lot of money

when I've done the research a lot this

guy here is

they won't go to for Indonesia I'm not

gonna go to make how long I'm gonna take

my whole family with me always about the

whole family and taking the grandparents

and yes you're right value for money for

these consumers it's a huge thing and

you hit the nail on the head because

remember when I started what did I say

about the horses

faster and cheaper horses because money

you will see from these consumers

exactly the guys who don't respect it

are the ones who haven't worked hard to

earning the harder you work and these

guys work like my God two three jobs

they're they're super smart to

understand value for money so they yes

they will do but they will do different

things it's a family it won't be with a

nuclear family it won't be the

individual that will show you the

pictures the nuclear you need to be

individualistic if you're you're if

you're individualistic you will go

package is for you you're gonna be here

if you do anything outside package you

are up there it doesn't I mean if

somebody is a simplification right you

want customized travel so if you're

gonna be in China who just customize

travel I'll tell you what you're gonna

do you're gonna go you're gonna spend

enough time researching you're gonna

wait on the internet you're gonna go to

c-trip which is on the internet to break

it down in every component and you're

gonna find the cheapest hotel of

everything with the high score and then

cut a trip and build it for yourself and

nobody else has has the same thing

for you this guy is a living hell to put

him on a bus let's go stand in front of

the Eiffel Tower chick chick go next and

change it all the time so

Tick Tock versus Facebook Facebook

challenges are coming on wire has taked

off been successful

any ideas

why is Tick Tock successful

okay

what behind yeah I think it's because

they were actually after so many years

they got bored a bit bored for of

Facebook and they wanted something new

something that's fast and something that

you can consume a lot of and basically

with Tick Tock that they're like 10 20

seconds videos they just consume okay

whatever they give them and this is some

that's a platform that's very

interesting and has a very nice concept

and design and yeah you could do it you

could do a lot with that and you so

Facebook started off as a place let's

say to share ideas online even though

there were

many more at its time Facebook was the

hit because they kept adding new stuff

like mini games chat afterwards and then

many many other stuff then you could

post videos in pictures and you could

like them then you could react to them

differently loved their Suds and all

those but why why because there are a

lot of people in Myspace all these

things came okay you uh because of their

algorithm uh jigsaw shows you what you

want to see

yeah so if I'm interested in football it

will always show me uh videos of

football yeah I think that Facebook uh

doesn't work uh very much these so I get

many uninteresting things on Facebook

and Tick Tock I'll get more okay

interesting I'm gonna show you this is a

keynote I gave in Australia 2019 okay I

asked at the time I get I spoke about

Tick Tock seven people out of 700 knew

what Tick Tock was okay so hopefully

that audio plays that's another place

foreign

with a story of of tiktok and uh

I have shown you the values framework

I want you to think from values

perspective

what the 2D the

community

okay

let me try it and it doesn't work how do

I reference here

let me see if you're here

today

I met people by Chaya the 30 year old

leader

videos on Tick Tock now she did not

values of a typical Facebook

for China it was a Channel of expression

called The Voice she never knew she cut

and he gave her confidence

has such things connected with her on

her body

she found this exclusive

culture called Perfection event on a

diet

that is the greatest content she saw a

small judgmental painful

to go through an urban area in India

of telling you

cultures that have in the developed

world

so in vesting with those values and

attack is also playing from an emerging

Trend that we're seeing in Emerging

Markets which modernization without

500 going to play

at the time nobody knew sorry they're

gonna be sure

[Music]

[Music]

that you would see on Facebook where

and

look the length of value you can see why

consumers

to monitor on all social networks

okay so oops so

do you Do You Hear What I was trying to

say so basically I go in 2018 March and

it is made and she was she's not a

typical user who posts on Facebook and

she was amazing she was doing all these

creative videos on her way back to work

coming up with ideas posting every day

by then she got over 70 000 followers

and she got she got such confidence in

herself and she would never post

anything on Facebook if she failed that

everything was judgmental on Facebook

but here all of a sudden you have people

who have these values who are willing to

put content well generally Facebook was

for these people down down here and as

such it was only like using a sergeant I

spottedly it was only a very different

competitive a competitive threat to a

Facebook and that's why I thought it was

quite quite an important one I want to

make sure I don't run out of time and

I'm gonna I'm gonna finish off by going

about this aspect of Entrepreneurship

and the study of views and the things

that start in my mind

so

in my time when we had a question of

willing text to be successful I would go

to my father he would tell me oh it's

all about hard work honesty Integrity

like I said yes your grandfather worked

380 days in the field and you have to

work like a slave but the today's

generations

when they want to find out about how to

do something they never go to their

parents what they do is they go to

YouTube and they write there how do I

become successful and all of a sudden

what you get is a series of people there

we all have the same narrative and

basically goes something to the effect

like I used to work nine to five for the

man and I was on this hamster wheel of

hard work and I hated every minute of it

and then one day I looked deep inside my

soul and I found my true purpose and all

I needed to do was to believe in myself

and then I resign from my job I did

something entrepreneurial and I bought a

Tesla I follow Elon Musk on Twitter I

run to work every day and I'm the

happiest and if I could do it you could

do it too

and this is the biggest horseshit that

you see on this crap and I will tell you

if you are an investor you cannot be

able if you're useless to survive one

maybe two years but we look at three

years

five years generally institutional big

passion plus won't give you money unless

you've proven yourself for five years

I've been doing this job for 23 years

I've been investing

and I have zero belief in myself and the

reason I survived this long is because I

don't believe in myself because every

Dragon who believes in themselves comes

and loses loss of money and we fire

them so what really does it take to be

successful so I will tell you the four

things I think you need to think about

three you need to try and work on and

one you need to minimize and they all

start with a knee so you can remember

them the first is empathy and these are

ironical I have my picture there because

after 13 years of doing this this is the

hardest thing to learn feel what

somebody else is feeling not sympathy

where I feel sorry for them but when I

see something get inside their psyche

and feel the feelings they would feel

and how they will respond to it their

emotional response

endure us

I mean your hard work and killing

yourself so I was we were in Brazil

recently there was this woman she was a

street food seller and she said she sell

these African street food Korea is this

big black woman with wearing white

clothes

happens she cannot sell street food in

the fair because they're shut down she

has women working for her she puts a

cart in the street and sells

drive-through inflation happens they

don't do like Alpha Mega doubling the

prices she says I cannot sell to my

customers at a higher price it's unfair

for them so she starts going to farmers

markets everywhere to bring the cost of

the food down people start paying back

credit cards credit can say take three

and a half percent of Pay Here a month

later she cannot if for you to do

accounting she doesn't understand the

matching principle so she has to pay

everybody today for the cost but she

gets money 30 days later she cannot

manage it instead of complaining she

goes and does an accounting course for

me that is endurance she doesn't

complain she just gets on and works hard

Fair excellent this is another big

problem a

at the early stages of school you can be

a good student and there is a spread but

as you get to University as you get out

to a job

the difference in intelligence between

you and the stupidest employee is about

five percent the guys you're competing

with five percent the guy who works five

percent harder than you can kill you

okay just remember that so I have the

following test

imagine you're working in the back and

you get a call at 5 30. you're about to

leave to go have dinner with your family

and the client asks you to do something

you have two choices choice one you do a

five minute job that the kind of things

is good enough option two you do three

hours you do an amazing piece of work

the client will think you're a hero and

will love you forever and he will be

your loyal client which are one of the

two you do I can tell you everybody will

tell you they do the second and most

people will say at that stage your

family is important to spend time well I

will believe you if your values are at

the bottom right hand corner and you do

it but if you are on the anywhere on the

top or on the left on the left there is

no way it's just an excuse because of

laziness so excellence

every single thing you do has to be

amazing and then finally the thing you

need to do the list of expectations

this

is where a lot of people come with high

expectations of themselves for me the

best

um has anybody heard of the stock tail

paradox

okay Stockdale was the was a device

Admiral he was a fighter pilot in

Vietnam he was shot down he was the

highest Naval ranking officer he shot

down in 1965 he was a prisoner of war

for eight years of the Vietnam they used

to call it the Hanoi Hilton where they

used to keep them so

they ask him couldn't survive and The

Optimist didn't survived the guys who

said we're going to be out by Christmas

and then they were not and then they

said by Valentine's in the world and

then they were by Eastern they were not

that they were there for eight years

they broke down in business you have to

say I have a very varying belief that

I'm gonna succeed but I don't know how

long and what it will take for that to

happen and for us every time we have a

win and everybody starts to project I

say no things are going to get much

worse before they get better for us and

that's the attitude you do need to take

with work and I see it with these

consumers I asked them if they're

optimistic about their life if they had

two or three events that went their way

they're like they think their life is

there they have three things like this

they think it's the end of the world and

they get depressed and life as in

shandrix used to say it's a cycle and

you have your big Target then you you

focus on that but know that it's gonna

be always worse before it gets better so

three is

okay I'm glad you're happy to be there

so so the three is empathy endurance

excellence and minimize expectations and

with that I'll wrap it up and I don't

know if I have time if you guys have

time to ask any questions I'm free

for everybody who wants to ask any

questions

oh yes

is easy but you predicted it yes

yes the failure of where I went wrong

with this

um I almost made a lot of my I made

money for clients I cannot invest in

private companies I made money for

clients who invested in it but who are

not my clients but what I found was

there was another company called like

tiktok was number one but like he out of

Singapore was number four and in rural

areas it was shooting through the roof

because he was going through the local

language in local vernacular so we made

an investment and tiktok was valued at

120 million this company was 520 billion

this was 5 billion and it has sold to

Baidu their operations and we were

getting 6 billion in cash so I was

getting this campaign for free so I

thought I'm gonna make so much money

remember expectations I set my

expectations to make lots of money

and then I wake up one day and there was

a square Miss fight at this Skirmish

where they were the universe China and

India soldiers killed each other and all

of a sudden there were 60 apps that they

were consider of Chinese origin and they

were banned by India and there were my

investment expectations expectation

management

yes and my question is

how can you designed these things your

problem because the the Facebook become

like this by Design I mean was it was

the Suzuki America Vision of I mean if

you had asked Zuckerberg back then maybe

he would have said oh no I don't want

Facebook

that I want Facebook to be more intimate

more through more more everyday and

perhaps you know the owners of tiktok

did not

have this kind of behavior emerged right

there by Design but this is just what

happened maybe they were too busy just

figuring and solving technical problems

to really think about they finally by

accident right so a lot of times I will

tell you when we do this research we

have a clear purpose in a firm we want

to go to the consumers to understand

what solutions they see to their own

problems the second is to connect with

companies and get them to stop seeing

the work with their roast into

spectacles and the third is to

communicate This research like I'm doing

here so you can find other people to

understand really what happens in the

apps and the second point when it comes

to companies is that companies see

everything through the list of their

operations and a lot of times do not see

the trends and they hit them by by

chance so uh I do an analysis where I

think dark chocolate is going to become

very big in India but today nobody eats

dark chocolate because everybody eats

male chocolate but the same way if you

went to Cyprus maybe 20 years ago my

generation we used to morning coffee

biscuits dunk in Milo was amazing I used

to take them in England with me 30 years

ago who here it's morning coffee who

here thinks is mirroring is good

everybody likes Oreos you know so these

things and a lot of these companies you

go and speak to these companies and I

think the trend is 10 years away and

they might be too early so a lot of the

companies yes they are they are they are

they are it's a mixture some of them are

good some of them are hitting it by by

luck but what I do as a test if you're a

CEO I do a test where I say to you okay

Mr CEO

that woman I showed you you're 22 years

old you live in the slums and your

parents doing this your mother's doing

this you're earning this money tell me

how much money do you save

and the good CEO will turn around can

tell me

about 50 lower income kids will save 50

of their money A bad CEO says to me oh I

spent the dollar and I say this is a

true story from the CEO of Malik one of

the biggest in their campus I said why

she said oh because my daughter doesn't

save any money I said your daughter has

a reach that

but none of my employees do either they

are all rich so do you realize the CEOs

who do spend a lot of time with their

customers and they know them and the

guys who don't and we need to educate

and find the companies that are very

responsive to this but this is a very

time consuming and very expensive

research and very hard research to do

well I'm gonna be around if anybody

wants to come and ask me any questions

I'll be starting here

so everybody wants to go can run off

thank you very much

[Applause]