Best Daily Bias Concept (simplified) - Ep 36
Summary
TLDRThe speaker emphasizes the importance of daily bias in trading, asserting that understanding price direction increases trading ease. They advocate for the use of fair value gaps as a key tool for identifying daily bias, arguing that these gaps provide crucial signs of price movement intentions. The script offers practical examples and strategies for using fair value gaps to predict and capitalize on market trends. The speaker also introduces the 'money making team' and invites viewers to sign up for insights and data on profitable trading, promising a potential mindset shift for those interested in improving their trading success.
Takeaways
- 🤑 Daily bias is crucial in trading as it helps predict the likely direction of the price the next day, making trading easier and potentially more profitable.
- 🚀 Entry models are not as important as having a daily bias; traders can use various edge models to enter the market as long as it aligns with the daily bias.
- 🔍 Fair value gaps are essential tools for determining daily bias, as they indicate the intentions of price movement and can guide traders to profitable trades.
- 💡 Trading without a daily bias is possible, but it is less effective; those with a daily bias are likely to make more money than those without one.
- 📊 The strength of a fair value gap can be determined by how many times the price enters it and whether it leads to a continuation of the trend or a retracement.
- 🔄 Respect and disrespect of fair value gaps are key concepts; a respected gap is one where the price wicks but does not close inside the gap, while a disrespected gap is closed inside or fully below/above it.
- 🕰 Timeframe context is important when using fair value gaps; daily gaps should be considered in the context of weekly gaps, and vice versa.
- 🎯 High probability trades occur when there is a lag with a fair value gap in it, indicating a strong potential for price movement in that direction.
- 📉 Disregard for a fair value gap can signal a weak bias, as seen when the price does not follow through with the expected movement after entering a gap.
- 📈 Traders should aim to identify and trade during high probability price action, sacrificing one day's trade to understand the bias for the rest of the period.
- 🌐 The speaker offers a mindset shift and an opportunity to sign up for a newsletter to receive personal trading data, insights, and potentially improve trading success.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the video script?
-The main focus of the video script is to explain the concept of 'daily bias' in trading and how to use 'fair value gaps' to determine the direction of price movement consistently.
What does the speaker claim to be the most important aspect of trading?
-The speaker claims that 'daily bias' is the most important aspect of trading because it can predict the likely direction of price movement for the next day.
What is the significance of 'fair value gaps' according to the speaker?
-According to the speaker, 'fair value gaps' are significant because they are signs left behind by price movement, indicating its future intentions and helping to determine the daily bias.
Why does the speaker emphasize that the entry model is irrelevant?
-The speaker emphasizes that the entry model is irrelevant because the key is to get into the market with the daily bias, and traders can use any edge model they prefer as long as it aligns with the daily bias.
How does the speaker suggest using 'fair value gaps' to determine daily bias?
-The speaker suggests studying the 'fair value gaps' to understand the price's intention to move higher or lower, and using these gaps as indicators to take trades based on the expected direction of price movement.
What is the difference between a strong and weak 'fair value gap' according to the video?
-A strong 'fair value gap' is one that only requires a single retracement to push the price significantly in the intended direction, whereas a weak 'fair value gap' is one that does not push the price effectively and may require multiple retracements.
What is the role of the 'weekly time frame' in the context of 'daily bias'?
-The 'weekly time frame' provides context to the 'daily bias'. It helps traders understand the bigger picture and the strength of the 'fair value gaps', influencing the probability of the price movement.
How does the speaker define 'respect' and 'disrespect' in the context of 'fair value gaps'?
-In the context of 'fair value gaps', 'respect' means that the price action wicks the gap without closing inside it, indicating the gap's strength. 'Disrespect' occurs when the price closes inside the gap or fully retraces to it, showing weakness.
What is the importance of understanding the 'daily bias' in trading according to the script?
-Understanding the 'daily bias' is important in trading as it helps traders to filter high-probability trades from low-probability ones, leading to more informed and profitable trading decisions.
How does the speaker suggest traders can improve their trading strategy using 'fair value gaps'?
-The speaker suggests that traders can improve their strategy by using 'fair value gaps' on different time frames, waiting for the right moment to enter trades, and managing risk by setting take-profit levels and going break-even.
What is the 'money making team' mentioned in the script?
-The 'money making team' is the speaker's mentorship team, which is presumably a group of traders that apply the concepts discussed in the script to make profits in the market.
What is the mindset shift the speaker wants to give to the viewers?
-The mindset shift the speaker wants to give is to understand the importance of 'fair value gaps' and 'daily bias' in trading, and to realize that these concepts can lead to significant profitability, even outperforming hedge funds.
Why does the speaker mention signing up for the email list?
-The speaker mentions signing up for the email list to provide viewers with his personal trading data, insights, and a potential mindset shift, aiming to help them become more successful in trading.
Outlines
📈 Understanding Daily Bias and Fair Value Gaps in Trading
The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying daily bias in trading to predict price movements effectively. They argue that the entry model is irrelevant as long as it aligns with the daily bias. The speaker introduces the concept of fair value gaps, which are price signs indicating future price action. By studying these gaps, traders can determine the daily bias. The speaker provides examples of how these concepts have been applied profitably, suggesting that trading with a daily bias is more lucrative than trading without one. They also discuss how to interpret fair value gaps, emphasizing the importance of retracements and the strength of these gaps in guiding trades.
🔍 Analyzing Price Action and Contextualizing Time Frames
This paragraph delves deeper into the analysis of price action through fair value gaps, explaining how they can be used to ascertain the strength of a lag (price movement). The speaker discusses the significance of context within different time frames, such as daily, weekly, and monthly, and how these affect the interpretation of fair value gaps. They illustrate how gaps can act as magnets or push prices away, and the importance of respecting or disrespecting these gaps based on the price's interaction with them. The speaker also clarifies misconceptions about daily bias, explaining that it's about identifying high-probability trades rather than attempting to predict every daily candle.
📊 Leveraging Fair Value Gaps for High Probability Trades
The speaker continues to explain the practical application of fair value gaps across various time frames, from daily to weekly and monthly. They stress that these gaps serve as magnets, guiding the direction of trades, and that traders should wait for confirmation through wicks (small price movements) to respect or disrespect these gaps. The speaker provides examples of how to use fair value gaps to enter trades and manage risk, including taking profits and going break-even. They also highlight a successful trade executed by the 'money making team' using these principles, emphasizing the strategy's effectiveness.
🚀 Mindset Shift and Access to Personal Trading Data
In the final paragraph, the speaker offers a mindset shift for viewers, encouraging them to sign up for an email list to receive personal trading data. This data is intended to provide insights into the speaker's trading success, which they claim outperforms hedge funds. The speaker promises to send an email with their trading insights between specific dates in August, aiming to inspire and guide viewers towards successful trading practices. The paragraph concludes with a reminder to watch the weekly forecast and a thank you note, accompanied by background music.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Daily Bias
💡Fair Value Gaps
💡Entry Model
💡Price Action
💡Mentorship Team
💡Respect and Disrespect
💡High Probability and Low Probability
💡Time Frames
💡Risk Management
💡Weekly Forecast
Highlights
Daily bias is crucial in trading as it helps predict the likely direction of price movement the next day.
Entry model is irrelevant; the focus should be on getting into the market with the daily bias.
Fair value gaps are key indicators of price movement and can lead to the daily bias.
Fair value gaps are signs left behind by price when it plans to move in a certain direction.
Studying fair value gaps can provide insights into the daily bias.
A single fair value gap can be enough to take a trade based on the bias.
Strong fair value gaps typically do not require multiple retracements to push price.
Weak fair value gaps can be identified by their failure to push price significantly.
The importance of context between daily and weekly time frames when analyzing fair value gaps.
High probability trades occur when there is a lag with a fair value gap in it.
Low probability trades are indicated by a lack of a fair value gap or disrespecting a gap.
Weekly fair value gaps can act as magnets or push price away, depending on the context.
Respect and disrespect of fair value gaps are determined by how price interacts with them.
Wicking a fair value gap signifies respect, while closing inside or fully outside of it signifies disrespect.
Daily bias is about filtering high-probability price action from low-probability action.
Professional traders know when and where to trade based on their trading plan.
Fair value gaps can be used on any time frame, but higher time frames are more significant.
Understanding fair value gaps can lead to a complete mindset shift in trading.
The speaker offers to share personal trading data for insights into profitability and trading frequency.
Transcripts
the daily bias is the most important
aspect about trading because if you of
course can know where price will likely
head toward the next day then it becomes
very easy of course I'm stating the
obvious there but today I want to
exactly go over how you can get to a
daily bias very consistently and how I
do it as well and I will show you a few
examples where the money making team has
applied this concept and this week even
made profit off of these Concepts again
if you don't know the money making team
is my mentorship team let's start off
with saying that the entry model is
completely irrelevant you can get very
creative with your Edge model do
whatever you like to as long as you get
in the market for your daily bias what I
mainly use and if you've been here for a
longer period of time you will know that
I love fair value gaps fair value gaps
tell you everything you need to know
because fair value gaps are the signs
that price is leaving behind when price
is planning to do something so what do I
mean by that when price is moving higher
and it wants to continue going higher
price will have fair value gaps telling
you exactly what it wants to do and
those fair value gaps can lead you to
your daily bias and all you need right
there is to study the fair value gaps so
whenever there's a guru who tells you a
fancy concept about getting to your
daily bias then just remember all you
need is fair value gaps and can you
trade without daily bias yeah you can
but who will make more money the one
trading with a daily bias or without a
daily bias the one with a daily bias so
if you're trying to trade without a
daily bias ask yourself are you just
being lazy or is it truly beneficial to
you so how do we use these fair value
apps to tell us what price will do if we
study this piece of price action right
here what can we see first off we can
see that we are continuing higher right
here price is leaving a sign behind
because it's leaving a fair if I get
behind right there that it wants indeed
to continue higher so only having this
fair value Gap right there is enough for
you to take a trade off of because we're
clearly heading towards this high now
why are we heading towards that high
well because if we read the fair value
gaps how many times have we gotten into
that fair fire gap that is sitting right
there on the left once right there Then
twice right there then a third time
right there and then a fourth time right
there and then here it got fully
rebalanced right there does this fair
value Gap seem to you like a strong fair
value Gap no why not because if there
was a strong verify Gap don't you think
it would have already pushed price all
the way lower somewhere around there it
would have never retraced to it strong
fair value gaps only need one single
retracement towards them to to then
expand or drop lower of course that's me
stating the obvious but a lot of people
don't read price action and they don't
take it into account because when we see
this we're coming into it that many
times and we fully rebalance it right
there then these days when we are
leaving behind this fair value Gap dead
right there you only expect a sting into
the fair value Gap right there and you
target what the price action where we
have no fair value cups left because a
lag without a fair value Gap in it is a
weaker than a lag with a fair value Gap
in it always remember that so this right
there is your drone liquidity so that
right there is your highest probability
price action and then if we continue
looking at Price a little bit further we
have a fair value Gap there now what is
happening there we are disrespecting
that provide Gap why are we
disrespecting it remember what we did
right there with that for Value Gap we
fully closed above that verify Gap what
are we doing there we are fully closing
below that firefighter Gap if price
truly wanted to continue high right
there don't you think this day would
likely have a wick and we would likely
see higher prices on that day already
and would likely respect that fair value
Gap clearly it's not a strong fair value
Gap but I just told you that when you
have a lag like this with a fervical in
it it's a strong leg yes but you need to
have your daily time frame in context of
your weekly time frame so the weekly did
have a very very Gap lower below that
leg so that lag is already weak so how
can you view that you have high
probability and low probability high
probability being whenever we have a lag
with a fair value in it it's likely a
strong lag unless and that makes it low
probability we have a lack with a verify
Gap in it but on the time frames above
it there's a fair value Gap just below
that leg and that is fractal that goes
for every single time frame then the lag
is low probability or of course when
there's no fair flag up in the leg then
it's also low probability so right there
we are trading towards a weekly fair
value Gap right there that Weekly Fair
fire gap can act as two ways it can act
as a magnet so price wants to navigate
towards it and it can do what it can
push price away again so when we look at
this weekly favor Gap right there can
you see the difference how we are
reacting towards this weekly fair value
Gap and that daily for flag up right
there we are clearly respecting that
Weekly provide Gap now respect and
disrespect you look at it on the
respective time frame that the Fairfax
has formed because of course on the
lower time frame we will have disrespect
right there and now again it's attention
to detail because here we are creating a
fair value Gap right there that fair
value Gap will it push price lower when
we are coming into the fair value Gap
the first we need to ask ourselves which
one is the stronger fair value Gap the
weekly is stronger because of course
there's a reason why the daily needs to
be context of the weekly because weekly
PD arrays are stronger than daily PD
rates so the probabilities are already
in our favor their price wants to
continue higher right here and that gets
confirmed when daily pair value gaps
right there stop following through lower
because if this wanted to continue lower
it would have made a new Fair variable
lore because remember price are telling
you signs on where it wants to go and
the signs are the fair value gaps and
afterwards we are seeing a new fair
value Gap higher right there that fair
value Gap again acts as a magnet and we
can use it to trade off of afterwards we
have a new fair value Gap higher so
again what is the bias we are likely
continuing higher ride then here it
becomes interesting because what are we
seeing right there we came into that
daily for vegap once on that Wednesday
right there and we had a long week and
afterwards we take out that low that
long width low right there and we come
back again in the daily fire gap what is
price telling you right there price is
telling you right there that this fair
value Gap is not strong enough to push
price higher because otherwise it would
have already done it on that day right
there so this day and that day and that
day and that day they confirm what they
confirm that this daily is not strong
enough to push price higher because
compare this daily for Vega to that
daily for Vega and to this daily for
vehicle right there only one sting
needed only one sting needed one two
three four five six days before we
expand higher who are you kidding not us
because we know that for backup is not
strong enough so if we are continuing
lower where are we likely continuing
lower from what are we seeing on the way
down we created what a daily Fair Gap
right there that daily fair value Gap is
our premium array to continue lower from
what does that create the premium rate
to that discount array so there you
create what your context what we
hammered on so much and I can hear you
think what you didn't really go into
daily bias let me clarify that first off
you need to understand day trading does
not mean everyday trading daily bias
does not mean that you try to predict
every daily candle you try to predict
the highest probability candles because
when you can predict the highest
probability daily candles then you know
where to enter now if you want me to
give you data data on my personal
trading plan how I've been able to use
this and outperform every hedge fund in
the world and stick to the end and I'll
tell you how you can get that data so
that daily bias is again filtering out
you're filtering out the high
probability from the low probability
price action if you are trying to trade
every day then that means that there is
no high probability price action and
there is no low probability price action
for you well there is but you are just
not paying attention to it trading every
day means you are neutral professional
Traders know when to trade where and
when to trade if you can't know where
and when to trade then you likely don't
have a trading plan set because that is
what you need to know so the fair value
gaps are leading you to your daily bias
why because when we look at this price
action again and we zoom out a little
bit and we use the verify gaps that we
said all right these are high
probability for five gaps it was this
fair value Gap and that fair value Gap
that discount rate to that premium array
right there is where you want to get
involved that is when and where you want
to get involved and then when we look at
this fair value Gap right there that is
again a high probability and that is
where and when you want to get involved
because you want to get involved in that
discount array and you want to Target
that premium array right there and then
afterwards same thing goes for this
favaga that is where you want to get
involved and that is your target right
there sorry to interrupt I'm currently
editing this video and I just want to
clear it up I just want to make it as
clear as possible so what I'm trying to
tell you throughout this video is I'm
constantly trying to tell you you can
use the fair value gaps on any time
frame because we talked about the time
frames being in context of the time
frame above it right you have your daily
incomes as a weekly weekly in context of
monthly
etc etc that's with every time frame so
the fair value gaps they are acting as a
magnet so you can trade towards them if
of course they are on the higher time
frame you would not trade towards a five
minute or one minute fair value that's
absolutely nonsense but the four hour
daily weekly and monthly they are great
indicators great fair value gaps to
trade towards them and then once we
reach those fair value gaps what can you
do well then we can potentially trade
off of them to continue higher or
continue lower how do we view that and
that is exactly what I'm trying to clear
up right here how do we view that we
view that by respect and disrespect
whenever we are wicking a fair value Gap
that is when we respect a fair value Gap
whenever we are disrespecting a fair
value Gap we are closing inside of it or
we are closing all the way below it or
above it and then of course I mean when
we are closing below a bullish verify
gap for example this Fair flag up right
there that is disrespecting and whenever
we close above or in a bearish verify
gap for example this verified cap right
there that is disrespecting again and
respect is what we're seeing here this
verify Gap that fair value Gap and that
for Value Gap they are only wicking and
why is that important the wick because
when you can understand and we form a
bias here once we have that first
Scandal so you don't even need to be
trading that first candle right and
that's what I'm trying to tell you in
the video as well you don't even need to
be trading that first Scandal because
when you wait for that week then all
these candles the one two three four
they are obvious they are obvious that
they want to expand higher just based
off of this day right there so
essentially what you're doing you're
sacrificing one day to know where the
rest of the days are trading towards the
same thing with this right here you
would wait you wait here before I get
being created it can act as a magnet
perfect so we might want to trade
towards it once we reach that we want to
be careful then once we disrespect that
this candle is extremely obvious why
because there's a weekly Fairfax sitting
just below that leg right there and with
lag I'm just aiming at your swing low to
the swing high that is a lag then the
same here once we respect this right
there we respect that fair value Gap
these days are super obvious so you're
you're sacrificing again one day to know
all these daily biases right there once
we create that daily before I get right
there again once we trade into it then
here you could take a loss right there
but afterwards you recoup that loss by
having a winner right there because this
is already telling you weak verify Gap
strong fair value Gap you wait this day
that day that Thursday is where you want
to trade that Friday is potentially
where you want to be trading no
Financial advice perfect let's continue
with the video so how can you get
involved all you need to do right there
is look for a fair value Gap lower on
the one hour time frame and you enter
off of that so here on the one hour what
do you do you wait for one fair value
Gap and you wait for a second verify Gap
right there and you cover the
intermediate term high right there and
you target a one to two because one to
two is all you need and then eventually
when you get used to the trading
strategy then you can Target the
ultimate loss but always manage risk
means gong break even taking profits
very important so here we are on GBP New
Zealand dollar and this is where the
money making team has capitalized on
this move right here if we Mark out this
weekly Fairfax Captain if we are
continuing higher where are we likely
continuing higher from discount array to
the premium rate right right there so if
we drop into the daily time frame you
can see that at this moment right here
we had a daily fair value Gap sitting
right there now when we looked at this
pair we were sitting right there and the
thing we saw was the following we knew
alright if the weekly wants to continue
higher then right here the week he will
continue higher off of this discount
rate off of that fair value Gap if the
daily wants to continue lower then we
knew the daily will continue lower off
of this fair value Gap right there but
if the daily wants to continue even
lower what will it do it will create a
new fair value Gap lower right there so
what did we see we saw that on this day
so this is a Tuesday and we wanted to
trade on that Wednesday and I'll tell
you why if we Mark out that low right
there and we go into the one hour time
frame and here we are on the one hour
time frame and what you can see is that
once we trade into that low right there
that is when we wanted to get involved
why because if we Zoom back out to the
Daily time frame what did we just do
we prevented a daily Fair very Gap from
forming which means that this high right
there that is your Target because this
lag lower does it have a fair value in
it no so that lag is what low
probability of holding what does that
become that Weekly fair value right
there becomes high probability of
pushing price at least until that high
and that leads to your what Your Daily
bias just using what fair value gas so
again if we'll take a look at this entry
then right here if you use the fair
value gaps again that alone could be an
entry covering that low right there and
targeting that high right there and then
you get tagged in and eventually it hits
take profit right there and here I use
the fair value gaps to create my daily
bias and I use the fair value gaps to
get to my entry model and to my Target
and you use the fair value gaps to go
break even it's everything the fair
value gaps are everything if you can
understand this that is so extremely
strong now I want to give you an
absolute mindset shift and I want to
open your eyes so please go towards
oreo.io sign up for the email list right
there and then on Sunday so this Sunday
8 30 a.m New York Eastern that is the
3rd of September I will personally send
you an email throughout next week with
my data so you can expect that email
anywhere from Sunday 3rd of August to
Sunday the 10th of August if you sign up
before Sunday 8 30 a.m in that email you
will get my data you will see how
profitable I have been and you will see
how much days I trade you will get all
the insights it will be a complete
mindset shift and again why does my data
matter well I like to think I have a
great idea of what I'm doing and that is
backed up by having an investor and
being a private Equity Trader so if you
would like to follow in my footsteps or
at least be somewhat successful in
trading then signing up might be a great
idea for you because I think a lot of
people need that eye opener like I
mentioned I'm out performing hedge funds
so remember that remember the newsletter
and I'll see you on the weekly forecast
on Sunday perfect thank you
foreign
[Music]
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