رؤية في مستقبل أسعار الذهب لعام 2025

Summary

In an insightful interview, Ahmed Najm, Head of Research for the Arab region at Exas, discusses the factors influencing the gold market, including inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments. He predicts a potential rise in gold prices to $2700-$2800, with a possibility of reaching $3000 in early 2025, though this remains an unlikely scenario. Central bank rate hikes, particularly from the Federal Reserve, and economic policies under Donald Trump, are expected to impact market sentiment. Najm also highlights the significance of central banks buying gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and market uncertainty.

Takeaways

• 😀 The potential for gold to reach $2700 is discussed, influenced by economic policies, inflation data, and central bank actions.
• 😀 A price range of $2750 to $2800 is considered a peak, with strong resistance expected if gold prices approach those levels.
• 😀 Geopolitical factors, particularly China's role in the global economy, are identified as key drivers for gold price movement.
• 😀 Central banks' interest rate decisions, such as 50 basis points from the Bank of Canada and 25 basis points from the ECB and U.S. Fed, are pivotal to gold's price performance.
• 😀 Inflation data, especially the U.S. CPI, will play a crucial role in influencing market sentiment and impacting gold prices.
• 😀 If inflation data comes in significantly higher than expected, it could put pressure on markets and trigger a potential rise in gold prices.
• 😀 Central bank gold purchases are ongoing, with the World Gold Council reporting increased buying, indicating concerns about currency depreciation.
• 😀 Trump's economic policies, particularly around fiscal spending and tariffs, will have a significant impact on inflation and market expectations.
• 😀 Markets are reacting to Trump's economic policies, but the real-world impact will depend on the effectiveness of their implementation.
• 😀 China's market intervention and its growing influence are expected to impact global gold demand and prices, especially in the coming months.

Q & A

What is the main factor driving gold price predictions in the current market?

The main factors influencing gold price predictions are inflation data, central bank policies (especially regarding interest rates), geopolitical risks, and the purchasing behavior of central banks, particularly in the context of rising inflation and currency devaluation concerns.

How could inflation data affect the price of gold in the coming months?

If inflation data comes in higher than expected, it could push gold prices up as investors seek gold as a hedge against inflation. Conversely, if inflation rates are lower than expected, it might lead to a decline in gold prices, especially if central banks raise interest rates in response.

What role do central banks play in influencing the price of gold?

Central banks have a significant impact on gold prices due to their buying activity. Increased gold purchases by central banks can raise demand, thereby driving up prices. In the current context, concerns about currency devaluation have led many central banks to buy more gold, which supports higher gold prices.

What is the expected short-term price target for gold, according to Ahmed Nagm?

Ahmed Nagm expects gold prices to potentially reach around $2750 in the short term, with a maximum target of $2800. However, he notes that significant resistance will be encountered at these levels, which may push prices back below $2600.

Could gold reach $3000 before the end of the year, as some analysts predict?

While the possibility of gold reaching $3000 before the year ends exists, it is considered unlikely unless there are significant shifts in inflation or major geopolitical developments. A surge in inflation or a shift in U.S. economic policies under Trump could potentially push gold prices higher.

How do geopolitical factors, particularly involving China, impact gold prices?

Geopolitical tensions and economic decisions, especially regarding China’s role in the market, can significantly influence gold prices. The uncertainty surrounding China's participation or non-participation in global markets can increase gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, pushing its price up.

What effect do Trump’s economic policies have on gold prices?

Trump's economic policies, including trade tariffs and potential inflationary measures, could create market volatility. While some analysts believe these policies could lead to higher inflation, others anticipate a stabilizing effect. The uncertainty surrounding these policies adds to gold’s attractiveness as a safe asset.

What role does the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy play in determining gold prices?

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy is crucial for gold prices. An interest rate hike could make holding gold less attractive, as bonds and other interest-bearing assets would offer better returns. On the other hand, if the Fed signals a pause or cut in rates due to inflation concerns, it could boost gold prices.

Why do some experts consider a rise in gold prices unlikely even if central banks continue to buy gold?

While central banks buying gold can boost its price, the overall economic environment, including U.S. monetary policy, inflation rates, and political factors, plays a more significant role in determining gold's trajectory. Therefore, the central bank purchases alone may not be enough to push prices dramatically higher.

What are the main scenarios that could lead to a sharp rise in gold prices in the first quarter of the upcoming year?

A sharp rise in gold prices could occur if there are unexpected inflation shocks, significant geopolitical events, or if Trump’s policies lead to higher-than-expected inflation or trade tensions. Additionally, any major changes in the global economic environment or central bank actions could influence gold prices.