Retired General on How Ukraine Is ‘Bleeding Out’ Against Russia | WSJ

Summary

The war in Ukraine has entered a prolonged stalemate, with Russian forces holding 18% of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian forces face heavy casualties and manpower shortages, while Russia bolsters its ranks with North Korean troops. Despite some successful operations, such as the Khursk Salient attack, Ukraine struggles to make significant territorial gains. Western support, while still strong, is increasingly strained by the financial and political costs of the conflict. The uncertain outcome of U.S. elections, coupled with the challenge of maintaining military and diplomatic resolve, adds further complexity to the future of the war.

Takeaways

• 😀 The war in Ukraine has entered its third year, with Russia controlling around 18% of Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian forces facing significant manpower and resource challenges.
• 😀 Ukrainian troops are outnumbered and outgunned, with little hope of substantial relief, leading to concerns about their ability to continue fighting effectively.
• 😀 Donald Trump’s potential victory in the US presidential election could introduce uncertainty about continued American support for Ukraine, which may affect the broader geopolitical situation.
• 😀 Despite heavy casualties, the war has largely resulted in a stalemate, with neither side winning nor losing in a decisive manner. The Ukrainian forces are reportedly losing capability faster than the Russians.
• 😀 The strategic focus of Russian forces remains on the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while Ukraine has also conducted successful drone swarms and counterattacks, including the Khursk salient attack into Russia, which served as both a military and propaganda victory.
• 😀 Key areas of the conflict include ongoing battles in Zaporizhia and Kherson, where Russian forces are holding the line, and Ukrainian forces are unlikely to make significant gains during the winter.
• 😀 European countries are growing concerned about the long-term feasibility of continued support for Ukraine, particularly due to the high cost of weapons and military equipment and the strain on European economies.
• 😀 Ukraine’s population decline, driven by high casualties and desertions, has raised concerns about the country’s ability to sustain its military efforts, with a significant number of soldiers being older recruits.
• 😀 Intelligence estimates suggest significant Russian casualties, with the number of dead potentially nearing 200,000 and wounded around 400,000, while Russia is seeking to bolster its forces by recruiting North Korean troops.
• 😀 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s war aims of regaining full control of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, are viewed by some analysts as unrealistic, given the current stalemate and heavy losses on both sides.
• 😀 Political and diplomatic challenges, especially the potential shift in US leadership and the internal issues within Ukraine, may soon overshadow military concerns, with General Kimmit predicting that the Ukrainian military could hold out until 2025, but the political landscape could change the course of the war.

Q & A

What is the current status of Ukrainian territory after over 2.5 years of fighting?

Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory, with ongoing conflicts in regions like Donetsk and Luhansk.

How has the Ukrainian military been described in the context of the ongoing war?

The Ukrainian military is described as being outnumbered, outgunned, and facing substantial losses, with little prospect of significant external support.

What was the significance of the Khursk salient attack by Ukraine?

The Khursk salient attack was a major strategic move by Ukraine, drawing Russian forces from the Eastern front, and it was also a significant propaganda victory by demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

What has been the overall military situation in key areas such as Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhia?

The military situation in these areas has been described as a stalemate, with Ukrainian forces defending key roads and Russian forces holding their ground, especially in Donetsk and Luhansk.

What role have Ukrainian drone swarms played in the conflict?

Ukrainian drone swarms have successfully targeted key Russian infrastructure, including missile storage facilities, military airfields, and fuel reserves, striking as far as Russia's Arctic region.

What are the main concerns raised about Ukraine's ability to continue fighting the war?

The main concerns include Ukraine's diminishing military capabilities, the heavy casualties it has suffered, and the potential decline in support from both its military personnel and Western allies.

How have Western allies, particularly the United States, influenced Ukraine's war strategy?

The United States and its allies have supported Ukraine, but concerns are growing over the sustainability of this support, especially in light of President Biden's administration questioning the feasibility of Ukraine's war aims and the political uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election.

What political challenges does Ukrainian President Zelensky face in sustaining the war effort?

Zelensky faces significant political challenges, including waning support for the war among his own military personnel and the growing difficulty in securing enough military manpower, especially as casualties increase and younger soldiers become disillusioned.

What is the potential impact of the U.S. presidential election on the war in Ukraine?

The potential election of Donald Trump, who has vowed to end the war quickly, introduces uncertainty about continued U.S. support for Ukraine, shifting the political landscape significantly.

How has Russia responded to manpower shortages in the conflict?

Russia has turned to North Korea, reportedly sending about 10,000 troops to support their forces, and continues to rely on a large number of non-frontline personnel, such as cooks and truck repairers, to maintain its military efforts.