Here's What Early Voting Is—And Isn't—Telling Us Ahead Of Election Day

Summary

In a recent discussion, Britney Lewis of Forbes interviews Garrett Hern, CEO of Vub, about the early voting landscape as Election Day approaches. They explore mixed early voting results across key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, highlighting shifting voter dynamics and registration trends. While Democrats initially led in early votes, Republicans are gaining momentum, especially with new registrations. Polling averages indicate a close race in battleground states, raising questions about potential outcomes. The conversation emphasizes the importance of interpreting polling data over early voting returns, given historical patterns and the evolving electoral landscape.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ Early voting shows mixed results for Democrats across key states, with some states like Michigan performing better for them.
• 📊 Pennsylvania's early voting reveals that mail-in voting is not as impactful this election cycle compared to 2020, with fewer ballots requested.
• 🔍 In Georgia, deep red counties are seeing high early voting turnout, complicating the narrative about voter demographics.
• 📈 New voter registrations in Pennsylvania show Republicans outpacing Democrats, potentially impacting Election Day outcomes.
• 🔄 Trends in early voting suggest that while Democrats started strong, Republicans are gaining ground as more ballots are returned.
• 📅 Polling averages in battleground states indicate a tight race, with only a narrow margin between the candidates.
• ⚖️ Kamala Harris currently leads in the Electoral College projections, but the numbers are fragile and could shift quickly.
• 📉 Historical polling errors suggest that the final election results may differ significantly from current polling averages.
• 🤔 Trump has shown recent momentum in key Rust Belt states, raising questions about potential overperformance relative to polls.
• 🔮 Overall, uncertainty remains high as both parties prepare for a competitive race leading up to Election Day.

Q & A

What is the current status of early voting according to Garrett Hern?

Early voting trends are mixed for Democrats; while they initially showed strong numbers in some states, there is increasing participation from Republicans, particularly in key battleground states.

Which states are being tracked for early voting results?

Garrett Hern is tracking early voting results in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan.

How do early voting rates in Michigan compare to previous elections?

In Michigan, early voting rates are encouraging for Democrats, with around 40% ballot return rates in cities like Detroit and Flint, which is higher than in previous elections.

What challenge does Pennsylvania face regarding early voting?

Pennsylvania's early voting scenario is complicated by the fact that many votes are cast by mail, and the proportion of early votes this year is expected to be smaller compared to 2020.

What demographic trends are observed in early voting in Georgia?

In Georgia, early voting saw high turnout in deep red counties, while the electorate was slightly less white than in 2020, indicating a potential shift in voter demographics.

How does polling data impact predictions for the election?

Polling data is considered the primary predictor for election outcomes, though it can be imperfect. Garrett Hern noted an average polling error of about three points.

What is the significance of electoral college bias in the current election?

Electoral college bias refers to the difference between the national popular vote and the lead in swing states. This year, the bias is smaller compared to 2020 and 2016, indicating a more competitive landscape.

What was the voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election regarding mail ballots?

In the 2020 presidential election, approximately half of the six million ballots cast were mail ballots.

What factors may lead to a closer race on Election Day?

The close race can be attributed to Republicans registering more voters and potentially higher turnout on Election Day, coupled with recent polling shifts in key states.

What insights does Garrett Hern provide regarding the importance of early voting data?

Garrett Hern stresses the need to take early voting data with caution, as it may not provide a full picture of Election Day outcomes due to varying turnout patterns and potential late shifts in voter sentiment.