Judgement & Decision Making - Prof. Volker Thoma (Psychology Masterclass)

Summary

In this lecture, Professor Volker Toma from the University of East London introduces the psychology of judgment and decision-making. He explains how we make judgments by predicting unknown situations or people, and how we make decisions by choosing between options. Toma explores the role of external contexts and internal mental processes in influencing these judgments and decisions. He discusses cognitive biases like the 'center preference effect' and heuristics like the 'representativeness heuristic.' The lecture also highlights strategies for improving decision-making, such as slowing down thinking, staying hydrated, and avoiding reliance on gut feelings.

Takeaways

• 🧠 Judgment involves estimating the character of unknown events or people, while decision-making involves choosing between alternatives.
• 📊 Context (external factors) and internal mental processes both influence our judgment and decision-making.
• 📍 People often show a 'center preference effect,' where they are more likely to choose items placed in the middle of a display.
• 🎯 The 'representativeness heuristic' is when people make judgments based on how closely something fits a stereotype, even if statistically incorrect.
• 🔍 The 'availability heuristic' is when people judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind, leading to biases.
• ⚖️ Heuristics are mental shortcuts that help make quick decisions but often result in errors, whereas algorithms are more reliable but slower.
• 📚 Kahneman and Tversky's research shows that people rely on heuristics, leading to systematic errors in judgment and decision-making.
• 💧 Being well-hydrated and taking time to think carefully can improve decision-making and reduce reliance on heuristics.
• ⚡ Non-invasive brain stimulation can enhance cognitive function and reduce errors in decision-making by stimulating certain brain areas.
• 📝 Providing simple instructions to think carefully or avoid gut feelings can help people make more rational decisions.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the lecture?

The lecture focuses on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, exploring how people make judgments, the factors that influence decisions, and common biases in decision-making processes.

What is the difference between judgment and decision-making?

Judgment refers to estimating or predicting the characteristics of an unknown event, situation, or person, while decision-making involves choosing between multiple options based on judgments made about their relative goodness or suitability.

What are the two main factors that influence judgment and decision-making?

The two main factors are the external context (situational factors outside the mind) and internal processes (mental processes, feelings, and biases within the mind).

What is the 'center preference effect'?

The center preference effect is a tendency for people to choose the middle item when presented with multiple options. This has been observed in various consumer decisions, where the item placed in the center position is chosen more often.

Why does the 'center preference effect' occur?

One explanation is that items in the middle of a display attract more attention. Another is that we are socialized to view the center as more important, which may unconsciously influence our choices.

What is the 'representativeness heuristic'?

The representativeness heuristic is a mental shortcut where people make judgments based on how well something matches a stereotype, rather than considering relevant statistical facts. This can lead to biased or incorrect decisions.

What is the 'availability heuristic'?

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where people estimate the likelihood of events based on how easily they can recall similar instances from memory. This can lead to overestimation of rare events that are more memorable and underestimation of common events that are less noticeable.

How do 'fast' and 'slow' thinking differ?

Fast thinking relies on heuristics and is automatic and quick, but prone to errors. Slow thinking is more analytical and deliberate, requiring more effort but leading to more accurate judgments and decisions.

How do external media and experience influence our judgment of the frequency of certain causes of death?

Media tends to report more dramatic causes of death, like tornadoes or fireworks accidents, which makes them more memorable and leads to an overestimation of their frequency. Less reported causes, like asthma or drowning, tend to be underestimated due to the availability heuristic.

What strategies can improve decision-making according to the lecture?

Strategies include being 'decision ready' (e.g., staying hydrated and well-rested), taking time to think carefully rather than relying on gut feelings, and using techniques like transcranial current stimulation to improve brain function and slow down fast, heuristic-based thinking.