Will Indonesia Join the U.S or China?

Summary

Indonesia, strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is a key player in global maritime trade. The US and China are vying for influence, with Indonesia becoming Southeast Asia's largest economy and the fourth most populous nation. Its military is significant, and recent defense spending increases have heightened regional interest. Indonesia's history of colonialism and its struggle for independence have shaped its cautious approach to alliances. As a major economy and a member of ASEAN, it seeks a balance between economic development and security, wary of aligning too closely with any superpower.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Indonesia is strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and controls a crucial maritime choke point.
• 💹 Both the US and China are investing heavily to gain influence in Indonesia due to its economic and geopolitical significance.
• 🚀 Indonesia has quietly become the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world.
• 🔝 In 2023, Indonesia approved a 20% increase in defense spending, highlighting its growing military capabilities.
• 🚢 The Strait of Malacca, where a significant portion of China's trade passes through, lies in Indonesian waters and is a focal point for competing investments.
• 📈 The US's 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy, announced in 2017, aims to counter China's influence and includes partnerships with Japan, India, and Australia.
• 🏛️ Historically, Indonesia has been wary of foreign alliances due to its experiences with colonialism and the Cold War.
• 🔄 Indonesia has a history of playing major powers against each other for its benefit, as seen during the Cold War with the US and the Soviet Union.
• 🔒 The country's military has been skeptical of China due to past conflicts and the 1965 coup attempt, which was blamed on communism.
• 🔧 Indonesia is modernizing its military and increasing defense spending, but it remains neutral and does not want to align too closely with any major power.

Q & A

What is the strategic importance of Indonesia's geographical location?

Indonesia is strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, controlling a narrow choke point where a significant portion of global maritime trade passes through. This makes it a key player in the balance of power dynamics in the region.

Why are the United States and China investing in Indonesia?

Both the United States and China are investing in Indonesia to gain its favor as an ally. Indonesia's strategic location, large economy, and significant population make it a valuable partner that could tip the regional balance of power.

What is the 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy mentioned in the script?

The 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy is a U.S. policy aimed at maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region, supporting American jobs, and promoting economic growth. It was announced by President Trump in 2017 and involves cooperation with Japan, India, and Australia.

How does the script describe Indonesia's economy in the context of Southeast Asia?

Indonesia is described as the biggest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world, highlighting its importance in the global economic landscape.

What is the significance of the Strait of Malacca for Indonesia?

The Strait of Malacca is significant for Indonesia as it lies in Indonesian waters and is a crucial passage for two-thirds of China's trade volume, making it a focal point for competing investments from the West.

Why did the United States support Indonesia's independence movement after World War II?

The United States supported Indonesia's independence to counter Soviet influence and played a major role in pressuring the Netherlands to withdraw their colonial troops, seeing the region as strategically important during the Cold War.

What was the impact of the CIA's involvement in Indonesia during the 1950s?

The CIA's involvement in supporting a rebellion in Indonesia in the 1950s was a major blunder, as they misunderstood the internal politics and ended up fighting against their own government's interests, which eventually led to a shift in U.S. policy to supply weapons and improve relations.

How did Indonesia benefit from the Cold War dynamics between the US and the Soviet Union?

Indonesia benefited from the Cold War by playing both the US and the Soviet Union against each other, receiving substantial military and economic aid from both sides, which allowed it to advance its territorial claims and strengthen its military.

What is the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Indonesia's foreign policy?

ASEAN plays a significant role in Indonesia's foreign policy by providing a platform for collective voice and pursuing national interests independently without fear of external influences. It also helps maintain a balance of power in the region.

Why is Indonesia increasing its defense spending and modernizing its military?

Indonesia is increasing its defense spending and modernizing its military to maintain its territorial integrity, respond to extremist groups within the country, and to hedge against potential security threats while maintaining a neutral stance in the current geopolitical landscape.

How does Indonesia's historical experience with colonialism and communism influence its current foreign policy?

Indonesia's historical experiences with colonialism and communism have made it skeptical of external influences and倾向于 maintaining a neutral stance in its foreign policy. This history has shaped its approach to balancing relations with major powers like the US and China.