Optimists Decide the Future | "Wired" Founder Kevin Kelly | Big Think

Summary

The speaker advocates for optimism as the driving force of progress, citing historical improvement over the past 200 years as evidence. Despite current challenges, they argue that optimism fuels innovation and betterment. They introduce the concept of 'protopia,' incremental progress that is only noticeable over time, contrasting it with the media's focus on negative outliers. The speaker concludes that believing in progress can lead to better behavior and the creation of new solutions.

Takeaways

• 📈 Optimism is historically grounded in the incremental improvements of each passing year.
• 🌐 Despite potential for collapse, the trend of progress is likely to continue based on historical patterns.
• 🔄 The current political and environmental pressures necessitate a hopeful perspective for the future.
• 🚀 Optimists are the drivers of innovation and creators of the important elements in our lives.
• 😌 Optimism can lead to better behavior and a more positive outlook on life.
• 🛑 While skepticism is necessary, like brakes in a car, it's the optimism that propels us forward.
• 🚗 An imbalance between pessimism and optimism can hinder progress; we need more optimism to keep moving.
• 🔥 The disillusionment with utopian promises has led to a lack of belief in a perfect future.
• 🌱 Protopia, or incremental progress, is proposed as a more realistic and achievable vision of the future.
• 📊 The media often focuses on outliers rather than the slow, steady progress that is harder to notice.
• 🔍 Scientific evidence is a better indicator of progress than news headlines, which may not reflect the reality of incremental gains.
• 🏛 Civilization is built on small, steady improvements over time, not on grand, heroic gestures.
• 🔄 Even though new technologies introduce new problems, the cycle of innovation and problem-solving continues, leading to net progress.

Q & A

What is the basis for the speaker's optimism?

The speaker's optimism is rooted in the historical trend of progress over the past 200 years, as evidenced by scientific data showing that each year has been a little better than the last.

Why does the speaker suggest that optimism is important for the future?

The speaker believes that optimism is crucial for the future because it is the driving force behind innovation and progress. Optimists are the ones who create and invent the things that become important in our lives.

What does the speaker mean by 'the engine of optimism'?

The 'engine of optimism' refers to the relentless forward momentum and positive outlook that fuels progress and innovation, akin to the engine of a car that keeps it moving.

How does the speaker view the role of pessimism?

The speaker views pessimism as necessary but should not dominate. It serves as a 'brake' to prevent recklessness, but too much pessimism can halt progress, similar to a car that only has brakes and no engine.

What is the current imbalance the speaker sees between pessimism and optimism?

The speaker perceives an imbalance where there is an excess of pessimism and a lack of optimism, which he believes is hindering progress and the development of a positive future.

Why might people be skeptical of the promises of technology?

People might be skeptical of technological promises because they have been 'burned' by past optimistic predictions that technology would lead to a utopian future, which has not materialized.

What does the speaker propose as a more realistic vision of the future instead of utopia?

The speaker proposes 'protopia' as a more realistic vision of the future, which involves incremental progress and steady, slow improvement rather than a sudden, ideal utopia.

How does the speaker suggest we perceive progress?

The speaker suggests that progress is often incremental and not immediately noticeable. It becomes visible only when looking back over time, recognizing small but consistent improvements.

Why does the speaker argue that the news is not a reliable indicator of global progress?

The speaker argues that the news focuses on outliers and unusual events rather than the slow and steady evidence of progress, which is not newsworthy but is captured by scientific evidence.

What does the speaker mean by 'civilization is the small creep of one percent betterment'?

The speaker means that civilization advances not through monumental leaps but through consistent, small improvements over time, accumulating to significant progress when viewed over centuries.

How does the speaker view the cycle of new technologies creating new problems?

The speaker sees the cycle of new technologies creating new problems as a natural and positive process. Each new problem leads to new solutions, which in turn create new problems, but this cycle results in a net gain for society.