Hidup Makin Sulit, Kelas Menengah Kian Terjepit

Summary

The Indonesian middle class faces financial pressures due to government plans to increase taxes to combat inflation and a potential reduction in purchasing power. The proposed changes to the KRL subsidy scheme, based on the Population Number (NIK), are expected to burden the middle class further. Additionally, discussions around mandatory pension contributions and third-party liability insurance for vehicles add to their financial woes. The middle class, a significant driver of the national economy, is shrinking, with numbers decreasing from 57.33 million in 2019 to 47.85 million in 2024, reflecting a decline in spending power and an increased risk of downward mobility.

Takeaways

• 📈 The Indonesian government plans to increase taxes to curb inflation, which is causing concern among the middle class.
• 🚄 There are plans to change the subsidy scheme for Jakarta's commuter rail (KRL) based on the population identification number (NIK) starting in 2025.
• 💼 The change in KRL subsidy scheme is expected to burden the middle class as they may have to pay higher tariffs.
• 🏢 The middle class is already facing a decrease in purchasing power, with four consecutive months of deflation from May to August 2024.
• 💬 There is a discussion about mandatory pension programs that could lead to wage cuts for workers, adding financial pressure.
• 🚗 From January 2025, all vehicles must have third-party liability (TPL) insurance, which is expected to be an additional cost for the middle class.
• 🏡 The Taperan (TAPERA) policy, which requires contributions from the working class, primarily benefits lower-income groups, leaving the middle class contributing without direct benefits.
• 📉 The number of middle-class citizens in Indonesia has been decreasing over the past few years, dropping from 57.33 million in 2019 to 47.85 million in 2024.
• 🏭 The lack of job opportunities in the formal sector and the shift of workers to the informal sector post-pandemic are contributing to the decline in the middle class.
• 💰 The middle class, which is a significant driver of the national economy, is currently struggling with stagnant wages and increasing expenses.

Q & A

What is the government's plan regarding the subsidy scheme for KRL Jabotabek?

The government plans to change the subsidy scheme for KRL Jabotabek to be based on the Nomor Induk Kependudukan (NIK) starting in 2025, which is expected to encourage those who can afford to pay higher tariffs.

How does the change in the subsidy scheme for PT KAI affect the budget allocation?

The budget allocation for PT KAI's PSO subsidy is projected to reach 4.8 trillion in 2025, compared to 2.5 trillion in 2023, with 64% or about 1.6 trillion allocated for KRL subsidies.

What is the potential impact of the new subsidy scheme on the middle class?

The new subsidy scheme based on NIK is expected to burden the middle class more, as it may lead to increased tariffs for those who can afford it, potentially reducing their purchasing power.

How does the discussion of wage cuts for additional pension programs affect the middle class?

The middle class may face increased financial pressure due to the potential for wage cuts to fund additional mandatory pension programs, which could further strain their purchasing power.

What is the mandatory third-party liability (TPL) insurance for vehicles, and how does it affect the middle class?

Starting from January 2025, all vehicles must have TPL insurance, which provides compensation for third parties affected by accidents involving the insured vehicle. This new requirement may add to the financial burden of the middle class.

What is the controversy surrounding the Taperan program and how does it affect the middle class?

The Taperan program requires contributions from workers (2.5%) and employers (0.5%), but the benefits go to low-income households. The middle class contributes through wage deductions but may not directly benefit, potentially adding to their financial stress.

How has the middle class population in Indonesia been trending in recent years?

The middle class population in Indonesia has been decreasing, from 57.33 million in 2019 to 48.27 million in 2024, indicating a decline of around 9.48 million people in about 5 years.

What is the role of the middle class in Indonesia's economy?

The middle class is a significant driver of the Indonesian economy as they are major and fast spenders, contributing significantly to household consumption, which is a primary driver of the economy.

What are the factors contributing to the decline in the middle class population?

The decline is attributed to factors such as a lack of job opportunities in the formal sector, leading many to switch to the informal sector, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused many new workers to enter the informal sector directly.

How does the government's lack of attention to the middle class potentially threaten Indonesia's economic goals?

Neglecting the middle class could undermine Indonesia's aspirations for a golden economy by 2045, as this group is crucial for driving economic growth and consumption.

What are the concerns for the middle class in Indonesia regarding their economic stability?

The middle class in Indonesia is facing concerns about stagnant wages, increasing expenses, and potential future deductions for insurance and pension contributions, which may lead to a decline in their economic stability and overall quality of life.