1 de junho TAReia antecipada – As implicações do anúncio.

Óscar Felgueiras

18 Apr 202407:32

Summary

TLDRÓscar Felgueiras discusses the recent announcement by Enade, Portugal's energy regulator, revealing a 35.6 EUR/MWh increase in network access tariffs effective from June 1st instead of July 1st. This rise, following a pattern of low market prices impacting electricity tariffs, is attributed to historical contracts with renewable energy producers. The new tariffs are expected to be finalized by mid-May, with potential implications for both regulated and market-indexed tariffs. EDP's announcement of a 10% decrease in energy costs amidst these changes adds a layer of complexity to the upcoming adjustments in electricity pricing.

Takeaways

📈 The energy regulator, Enade, has announced a significant increase in network access tariffs by 35.6 EUR per MWh, effective from June 1st instead of the usual July 1st.
🕒 The increase is set against a backdrop of historically low market prices, which have a visible impact on electricity tariffs and is part of a trend since 2022.
📊 The provisional proposal suggests that the final decision will be announced by mid-May, with the new tariffs fixed until the end of the year.
💹 The main reason for the increase is the market prices being significantly below the anticipated value in December, impacting the remuneration for renewable energy producers.
🔗 Low market prices lead to higher costs for guaranteed remuneration of renewable energy producers, which is then covered by network access tariffs.
📊 The exact value of the new network access tariffs is expected to be around 101.8 EUR per MWh from June, closely aligning with the 2020 figures.
💼 The impact on different electricity tariffs includes a 0.1% decrease for the regulated tariff, while the social tariff component remains unclear on how it will be implemented.
📉 For market-indexed customers, the increase in network access tariffs will likely be reflected in their bills, with no room for the profit margin of suppliers to accommodate the increase.
📉 EDP has announced a 10% decrease in its energy component, coinciding with the new network access tariffs, possibly indicating a strategy to stay competitive.
⏱️ Consumers should be vigilant from mid-May onwards as the final values of network access tariffs will be known, defining the electricity landscape for the second half of the year.

Q & A

Who is Óscar Felgueiras and what is his focus in the script?
-Óscar Felgueiras is the speaker in the script, and his focus is on discussing the recent announcement by Enade, the energy services regulator, regarding the increase in network access tariffs.
What is the announced increase in network access tariffs according to the script?
-The network access tariffs are set to increase globally by 35.6 EUR per MWh, effective from June 1st instead of the usual July 1st.
Why is there an anticipated increase in tariffs despite historically low market prices?
-The increase is due to the fact that market prices are significantly below the anticipated value, which impacts the electricity tariffs. Low market prices mean that the cost with guaranteed remuneration for renewable energy producers increases, which is then covered by the network access tariffs.
What is the provisional nature of the proposed increase mentioned in the script?
-The proposed increase is still provisional, and the final decision is expected to be announced by Enade in mid-May, which is the usual lead time before the new tariffs take effect on June 1st.
What is the average guaranteed remuneration for renewable energy producers as per historical contracts?
-The average guaranteed remuneration for renewable energy producers under historical contracts is 102 EUR per MWh, which represents about 1/3 of the national consumption.
How does the low market price affect the network access tariffs?
-When the market price is below the value of these historical contracts, the difference is paid through the network access tariffs, leading to an increase in these tariffs.
What is the estimated cost of the new network access tariffs starting from June according to the script?
-The estimated cost of the new network access tariffs starting from June is 101.8 EUR per MWh.
How does the new increase in network access tariffs compare to the previous year's rates?
-The new increase is likely to result in a rate slightly below that of 2020, which was 7.28 c per kWh, possibly settling around 7 ctim per kWh, indicating a rise of slightly less than 35% per kWh.
What is the impact of the increase on the regulated tariff chosen by over 900,000 consumers?
-For the regulated tariff, the final price is announced to decrease by 0.1%, which may not be sufficient to cover the increase in the cost of the social tariff, which is fixed at 0.2893 c per kWh.
How will the increase in network access tariffs affect customers on indexed tariffs?
-For customers on indexed tariffs, there is little doubt that the increase in network access tariffs will be reflected in their bills, as the profit margins of the commercializers do not allow for accommodation of this increase.
What is the potential impact on fixed tariffs and what does EDP announce regarding their energy component?
-For fixed tariffs, there will likely be increases in the majority of cases, but there might be exceptions. EDP has announced a 10% decrease in their energy component, coinciding with the new network access tariffs, and it is likely they will announce a larger decrease to not exceed the cost of the regulated tariff.
What does the ERS plan to improve in terms of tariff review mechanisms?
-The ERS plans to improve the tariff review mechanism to allow for simultaneous and automatic adjustments of both energy tariffs and network access tariffs.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Tariffs Rise and Regulatory Updates

In this introduction, Óscar Felgueiras discusses the recent announcement by Enade, the energy regulator, about an unexpected increase in energy access tariffs by €35.6 per MWh starting from June 1. This increase comes earlier than usual, having typically occurred in July since 2022. Despite historically low market prices for energy, this shift is expected to have significant consequences on electricity rates. Felgueiras highlights that the proposal is provisional, and the final decision will be made by ERS in mid-May, ahead of the new tariff implementation. The market's low prices, below what was forecasted in December (from €88.3 to €57 per MWh), are the main reason for the hike. Contracts with renewable energy producers, which guarantee a fixed remuneration of €102 per MWh, have led to additional costs being passed onto consumers through these tariffs.

05:03

💡 Projected Tariffs and Market Impacts

Felgueiras delves into specific numbers, analyzing the cost breakdown of the new energy tariffs. According to December's projections, the base tariff was set at €66.2 per MWh. The most recent update indicates an additional €35.6 per MWh, raising the overall cost to €101.8 per MWh starting in June. Although this isn't explicitly stated in the communication, a weighted average of €87 per MWh for 2024 is provided. This new price is close to the €104.1 per MWh recorded in 2020, suggesting that the upcoming tariffs will be slightly lower than those of that year. Felgueiras thanks Sonia Pereira for her table, which tracks tariff changes since 2020, and projects that the new rates may hover around 7 cents per kWh, a minor increase of just under 3 cents per kWh.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Enade

Enade stands for 'Entidade Reguladora dos Serviços Energéticos', which translates to 'Regulatory Entity for Energy Services'. It is the Portuguese regulatory authority for energy services. In the context of the video, Enade announced an increase in network access tariffs, which is a significant development affecting the energy sector. The script discusses how Enade's decision to raise tariffs from June 1st instead of July 1st is part of a broader strategy to adjust to market conditions.

💡Tarifas de Acesso Redes

Tarifas de Acesso Redes refers to 'Network Access Tariffs'. These are the charges that energy consumers pay to access the electricity grid. The video focuses on the increase of these tariffs by 35.6 EUR per MWh starting from June 1st, which is a key point of discussion as it directly impacts the cost of electricity for consumers. The script explains that this increase is part of a response to the current low market prices.

💡Preços de Mercado

Preços de Mercado translates to 'Market Prices'. The script mentions that the market prices are historically low, which is an unusual context for an increase in network access tariffs. The video explains how low market prices can lead to an increase in tariffs due to the need to cover the guaranteed remuneration for renewable energy producers, which is a fixed cost that is not directly tied to market fluctuations.

💡Tarifários de Eletricidade

Tarifários de Eletricidade refers to 'Electricity Tariffs'. These are the rates that consumers pay for their electricity consumption. The video discusses how the increase in network access tariffs will lead to significant changes in electricity tariffs. The script provides analysis on how different types of consumers, such as those on regulated tariffs or market-indexed tariffs, will be affected by these changes.

💡Remuneração Garantida

Remuneração Garantida translates to 'Guaranteed Remuneration'. This refers to the fixed payment that renewable energy producers receive for the energy they produce, regardless of market prices. The video explains that when market prices are low, the difference between the market price and the guaranteed remuneration must be covered by network access tariffs, leading to an increase in these tariffs.

💡Tarifa Simples

Tarifa Simples refers to the 'Simple Tariff', which is a type of electricity tariff often chosen by consumers for its simplicity and fixed rates. The video discusses how the increase in network access tariffs will affect this tariff, with the script providing specific figures and comparisons to previous years to illustrate the potential impact on consumer costs.

💡Tarifa Social

Tarifa Social translates to 'Social Tariff', which is a special rate offered to low-income households to ensure they have access to electricity at a reduced cost. The video mentions that despite the increase in network access tariffs, the social tariff is expected to decrease by 0.1%, which may not be enough to cover the increased costs, indicating a potential financial strain on these consumers.

💡Mercado Indexado

Mercado Indexado refers to 'Market-Indexed Tariffs', which are electricity tariffs that fluctuate with market prices. The video anticipates that most consumers on these tariffs will see an increase in their electricity bills due to the rise in network access tariffs. It highlights the direct correlation between market conditions and the cost borne by consumers on these types of tariffs.

💡EDP

EDP stands for 'Entidade Distrital de Produção', which is a major electricity company in Portugal. The video mentions EDP's announcement of a 10% decrease in its energy component, which is expected to coincide with the new network access tariffs. This move by EDP is seen as a strategic response to the changing energy market and an attempt to maintain competitiveness in the face of rising costs.

💡Mecanismo de Revisão

Mecanismo de Revisão translates to 'Review Mechanism'. The video discusses how Enade plans to improve this mechanism to allow for simultaneous and automatic adjustments of both energy tariffs and network access tariffs. This is significant as it could lead to more transparent and efficient pricing for consumers, as the tariffs will better reflect the actual costs and market conditions.

Highlights

The Enade announces a general increase in energy network access tariffs by 35.6 EUR/MWh starting from June 1st instead of July 1st.

The increase is proposed in a context of historically low market prices impacting electricity tariffs.

The provisional proposal is expected to be finalized by Enade by mid-May with the new tariffs effective from June 1st until year-end.

Market prices are significantly below the anticipated value, leading to an increase in network access tariffs.

Historical contracts with renewable energy producers at a guaranteed average remuneration of 102 EUR/MWh account for about 1/3 of national consumption.

When market prices are below these contract values, the difference is covered by network access tariffs.

The new tariff increase is expected to bring costs close to those seen in 2020.

The estimated cost from June will be 101.8 EUR/MWh, close to the 104.1 EUR/MWh recorded in 2020.

The new network access tariff is likely to be slightly below that of 2020, around 7.28 c per kWh.

For the regulated tariff chosen by over 900,000 consumers, the final price will decrease by 0.1%, which may not cover the increased cost of the social tariff.

The social tariff, fixed at 0.2893 c per kWh, will likely be implemented optionally by retailers from April 1st.

For market-indexed customers, the increase in network access tariffs will likely be reflected in their bills.

EDP announced a 10% decrease in its energy component coinciding with the new network access tariffs.

EDP may announce a larger decrease to avoid a cost higher than the regulated tariff.

The decrease in wholesale electricity prices may partially or fully compensate for the increase in network access tariffs.

Enade will improve the tariff review mechanism to allow simultaneous and automatic adjustments of energy and network access tariffs.

Prices are set to increase through network access tariffs, the social tariff contribution, and for indexed tariffs, the market price increase from May onwards.

Consumers should be particularly attentive from mid-May when the final values of network access tariffs will be known and the outlook for the second half of the year will start to take shape.