Kim Jong-Un’s New Strategy

Summary

After failed negotiations with the U.S., North Korea pivots strategy, abandoning hopes of becoming a 'normal' country and instead strengthening ties with Russia and China. With greater support from these powers, North Korea will likely cause more global trouble, already contributing to Russia's war in Ukraine. This alliance recalls the Cold War era when North Korea had greater economic success thanks to Soviet and Chinese aid, suggesting the regime may regain strategic importance.

Takeaways

• 😦 North Korea is entering a dangerous new era, becoming more isolated and rebellious, as it pivots its strategy away from seeking peace and economic openness.
• 🤔 Kim Jong Un likely imagined that going nuclear would force the US to respect North Korea as a legitimate country, but the US refuses to accept a nuclear North Korea under any circumstances.
• 😟 After multiple failed attempts at striking a deal with Trump, North Korea had to devise a new strategy, realizing it had hit a dead end with the US.
• 😠 North Korea was never truly aligned with or friendly toward China and Russia, merely manipulating them when convenient, which caused growing irritation.
• 🤨 Having abandoned hopes of a deal with the US, North Korea now sees strategic value in realigning with Russia and China in a new Cold War dynamic.
• 👎 North Korea voted against condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, offered weapons support, and launched satellites with Russian assistance.
• 😡 With increased support from Russia and China, North Korea will likely cause even more trouble now that it has a longer leash.
• 🤔 The past cooperation of North Korea, China and Russia provides concerning clues about what to expect from them working together now.
• 😕 North Korea's strategy has evolved significantly based on recent developments, but global understanding of its intentions has not caught up.
• 😐 It remains very unclear what China and Russia have in mind for North Korea going forward, presenting uncertain dangers.

Q & A

Why did North Korea destroy the unity arch representing Korean unification?

By destroying the arch, Kim Jong-Un was signaling that after 75 years, North Korea no longer believes peaceful unification with South Korea is possible. This marks a shift in North Korea's strategy and objectives.

What happened after North Korea developed the ability to target the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons?

North Korea expected the U.S. to accept it as a nuclear power and start lifting sanctions, allowing North Korea to become a more 'normal' country. However, the U.S. refused to accept a nuclear North Korea under any circumstances.

How close have the relationships between North Korea, China, and Russia actually been historically?

The three countries have never been true allies or friends. They use each other opportunistically and their goals often conflict. North Korea has always sought to maximize its independence from China and Russia.

Why did attempts to strike a nuclear deal between North Korea and the U.S. under Trump fail?

The U.S. was only willing to make a deal if North Korea completely gave up its nuclear weapons. North Korea refused to make this concession, even under the best possible negotiating circumstances with Trump.

What impact did Russia's invasion of Ukraine have on North Korea's strategy?

Russia's isolation gave North Korea strategic value again, allowing it to return to a Cold War-style dynamic where it can gain more support from China and Russia. This means North Korea now has a longer leash for misbehavior.

What warning are experts giving about North Korea's latest actions?

Experts warn that destroying the unity arch and other recent provocations are not just attention-seeking behaviors as usual. They signal a genuine strategic shift by North Korea away from negotiations and potential integration.

Why did previous assumptions about North Korea's motivations and relationships prove incorrect?

Many assumptions were based on limited information and extrapolated too far. In reality, North Korea has always sought independence from China and Russia, and its outreach to the U.S. was sincere.

What role did the death of Muammar Gaddafi play in North Korea's nuclear policy?

After Gaddafi died following voluntary nuclear disarmament, North Korea quadrupled down on nuclear development, vividly reminded that surrendering weapons can have fatal consequences.

What effect did UN sanctions pushed by China and Russia have on North Korea?

The sanctions caused North Korea's trade to immediately collapse, paralleling the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union. This forced North Korea to chart a radical new strategic pivot.

Why does North Korea's evolving relationship with China and Russia pose a threat?

Even when reluctant, cooperation between these powers is concerning given their joint capabilities, as seen during the Cold War era. With greater support, North Korea now poses heightened danger.