Year 15 of Mass Formation Psychosis (We Explain Why) [Eurodollar University, Ep. 180c]

Summary

The video script discusses the concept of 'mass formation psychosis', a term gaining traction on social media, and its relation to societal unrest. It delves into economic indicators like GDP and global trade, highlighting a 'silent depression' with significant economic activity missing since the 2008 financial crisis. The conversation explores how this economic downturn correlates with increased social issues like drug addiction and reduced life expectancy, suggesting a connection between economic stagnation and societal well-being. The discussion emphasizes the importance of recognizing and addressing the underlying causes of widespread anxiety and unrest.

Takeaways

• 📈 The concept of 'mass formation psychosis' has gained significant attention on social media, suggesting a collective anxiety and disorientation in society.
• 🚫 Mentioning 'mass formation psychosis' could lead to social exclusion or censorship, highlighting its controversial and sensitive nature.
• 🌐 The discussion suggests an unacknowledged 'silent depression' affecting global economic and social well-being, despite official narratives of economic growth.
• 💼 There's skepticism about the reliability of economic data and interpretations provided by central banks and financial authorities, which may skew perceptions of economic health.
• 📉 The script points to a significant gap between actual GDP growth and the expected trend, indicating a substantial loss in economic activity over the years.
• 🌍 It emphasizes the global nature of the economic downturn, not limited to the U.S. but affecting multiple countries and suggesting a systemic issue.
• 📊 The comparison of current economic conditions with historical depressions, like the Great Depression, indicates a prolonged and severe impact on economic growth.
• 💔 The conversation links economic stagnation with social issues such as increased drug addiction, suicides, and a rise in social unrest, reflecting the broader implications of economic conditions on societal health.
• 👶 A decline in fertility rates and life expectancy in various countries is correlated with the economic downturn, suggesting a deep-rooted societal impact.
• 🔗 The script suggests that the slowdown in globalization and the decrease in foreign direct investment are connected to the economic and social issues being discussed.
• 🧬 The discussion implies a need for a grassroots understanding of science and economics, advocating for evidence-based reasoning over reliance on authoritative figures.

Q & A

What is the term 'mass formation psychosis' and why has it become a popular topic on social media?

Mass formation psychosis is a term that has been circulating on social media, often associated with the idea that a large number of people are experiencing a shared psychological phenomenon leading to irrational behavior or beliefs. Its popularity may be due to its use in discussions about societal reactions to events like the COVID-19 pandemic.

What does the term 'silent depression' refer to in the context of this conversation?

In this context, 'silent depression' refers to a state of widespread economic downturn that is not acknowledged or discussed by mainstream financial media, business press, or politicians, despite its significant impact on society.

Why might people feel a sense of unease or that something is not right, even when economic indicators suggest a booming economy?

People might feel unease because personal experiences and observations often do not align with the positive economic indicators reported by authorities. This disconnect can create a sense of mistrust or confusion about the true state of the economy.

What is the significance of GDP in the discussion about economic health?

GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is a key indicator of a country's economic health, measuring the total value of goods and services produced over a specific time period. It is often used to assess economic growth and prosperity.

How does the script suggest that economic data might be interpreted or presented to favor certain narratives?

The script suggests that economic data might be selectively presented or interpreted by entities like the Federal Reserve to support a positive narrative about the economy, which may not accurately reflect the actual experiences of individuals or the broader economic conditions.

What is the concept of 'free-floating anxiety' as discussed in the script?

Free-floating anxiety, in this context, refers to a pervasive sense of unease or worry that is not tied to any specific cause or threat. It is suggested as a precursor to mass formation psychosis, potentially resulting from unacknowledged societal or economic issues.

How does the script connect the idea of 'mass formation psychosis' to broader societal and economic issues?

The script connects 'mass formation psychosis' to societal and economic issues by suggesting that widespread anxiety and unacknowledged economic downturns can lead to irrational societal behaviors and beliefs, which are manifestations of this psychological phenomenon.

What is the role of central banks in shaping economic narratives, according to the script?

According to the script, central banks play a significant role in shaping economic narratives by influencing the interpretation of economic data and by promoting certain views that may favor their own objectives or perceptions of economic health.

How does the script discuss the relationship between economic conditions and social outcomes like drug addiction and suicide rates?

The script suggests a correlation between worsening economic conditions and increased social issues such as drug addiction and suicide rates, indicating that economic downturns can have significant impacts on mental health and societal well-being.

What evidence does the script provide to suggest that the global economy has been underperforming in recent years?

The script provides evidence such as GDP growth rates, missing economic activity in terms of global trade and foreign direct investment, and changes in life expectancy and fertility rates to suggest that the global economy has been underperforming and experiencing a 'silent depression'.

Outlines

00:00

🤔 The Silent Depression and Mass Formation Psychosis

This paragraph discusses the concept of 'mass formation psychosis', a term that has gained popularity on social media and its implications for societal behavior. It touches on the economic conditions that may contribute to this phenomenon, referring to an unacknowledged worldwide depression termed 'silent' due to its lack of recognition by the financial media and politicians. The discussion includes the idea that economic indicators like GDP and unemployment rates may not reflect the true state of the economy, leading to a sense of unease among the public despite official narratives of economic prosperity.

05:01

📉 Economic Misinterpretation and the Illusion of Growth

The speaker delves into the discrepancy between perceived economic growth and actual economic activity, suggesting that while GDP may show record highs, this does not account for the underlying trend that should have been followed had there been no economic downturn. The conversation points out that the economy is not simply about recovery to previous levels but about continuing the trend that was established before any recession. It highlights the concept of 'free-floating anxiety' as a potential precursor to mass formation psychosis, suggesting that the public's vague sense of unease may stem from the misinterpretation of economic data by authorities.

10:04

📊 GDP and the Non-Linear Nature of Economic Growth

This paragraph emphasizes the non-linear growth of human activity and the importance of considering the trend line of economic growth rather than just the absolute values. It points out that the economy should not be judged solely on whether it has reached a record high but whether it is following the expected trend line. The discussion reveals that the current GDP is significantly below the projected trend line, indicating a substantial amount of missing economic activity, which contributes to the broader economic and social issues being discussed.

15:04

🌐 Global Economic Deviation and the Impact of Silent Depression

The conversation shifts to the global scale, discussing the significant deviation of the world economy from its expected growth trajectory since around 2008. The speaker provides a comparison to the Great Depression, suggesting that the current economic situation may be even worse in terms of the amount of missing economic activity. The paragraph highlights the difficulty in comprehending the scale of the economic loss and the challenge in relating these numbers to everyday life experiences.

20:05

💔 Social Consequences of Economic Downturns

This paragraph explores the social ramifications of the economic downturn, including increased rates of drug addiction, overdoses, and suicides. It suggests that these issues are not coincidental but are correlated with the economic conditions that have been worsening since 2007-2008. The discussion points out that these social issues are manifestations of the underlying economic problems and contribute to the overall sense of societal unease and anxiety.

25:06

🌿 Global Social Indicators Reflecting Economic Struggles

The speaker examines global social indicators such as fertility rates and life expectancy, showing declines and deviations from long-term trends in various countries. The paragraph suggests that these social metrics are connected to the economic struggles experienced globally, reflecting the broader impact of the 'silent depression' on societal well-being. It challenges the orthodoxy that wealthier societies have fewer children, instead suggesting that economic instability and uncertainty may lead to changes in societal behavior.

30:07

🌱 Resilience Amidst Global Challenges

In the final paragraph, the discussion acknowledges the resilience of human society despite the significant challenges faced over the past decades. It suggests that while there are many negative developments, there are also reasons to be optimistic about the future. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the importance of understanding and addressing the root causes of the observed social and economic issues to prevent further deterioration.

Keywords

💡Mass Formation Psychosis

Mass formation psychosis refers to a hypothesis suggesting that a large number of people can develop similar psychological symptoms in response to societal stressors. In the video, it is discussed as a potential explanation for widespread societal unrest and anxiety, with the hosts suggesting that it may be related to unacknowledged economic and social issues.

💡Silent Depression

The term 'silent depression' is used in the script to describe a state of economic downturn that is not officially recognized or acknowledged by authorities or the media. It relates to the video's theme by suggesting that the current economic situation may be worse than publicly admitted, contributing to societal stress and unrest.

💡GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

GDP is a measure of the economic activity within a country, defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced in a given period. In the video, the discussion around GDP is used to illustrate the discrepancy between official economic indicators suggesting a 'booming' economy and the personal experiences of individuals who do not perceive the economy to be doing well.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as 'the Fed,' is the central banking system of the United States, responsible for monetary policy and economic stability. The script mentions the Federal Reserve and its chair, Jay Powell, as authorities whose positive economic assessments contrast with the perceived reality of many individuals.

💡Quantitative Easing

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy in which a central bank creates new money to buy government bonds or other securities to inject money into the economy. The script refers to a study about the bias in economic literature related to quantitative easing, suggesting a favorable bias towards policies that support central bank actions.

💡Economic Data Interpretation

Economic data interpretation involves analyzing statistical data to understand economic performance and trends. The video discusses the potential for bias in this interpretation, particularly by central banks, which may skew data to present a more favorable view of the economy.

💡Science and Scientism

The script contrasts the concept of true scientific inquiry, which involves examining evidence and drawing reasonable conclusions, with 'scientism,' the belief in the infallibility of scientific authority figures. It suggests that public trust in scientific authorities may be misplaced, as they may not always provide accurate or unbiased information.

💡Free-Floating Anxiety

Free-floating anxiety is a psychological term referring to a sense of anxiety or unease that is not attached to any specific cause or threat. In the video, it is suggested that this type of anxiety may be a precursor to mass formation psychosis, resulting from societal and economic stressors that are not adequately addressed or understood.

💡Globalization

Globalization is the process of increased interconnectedness and interdependence among countries, particularly in economic and cultural aspects. The script discusses the potential negative social and economic consequences of a slowdown in globalization, suggesting that the current 'silent depression' may be related to a retreat from global economic integration.

💡Fertility Rate

The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman. The video uses changes in fertility rates in various countries as an indicator of societal well-being and suggests that declines in fertility rates may be related to economic uncertainty and social stress.

💡Life Expectancy

Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the average number of years a person may expect to live, based on current rates of mortality. The script notes changes in life expectancy trends in several countries, suggesting that disruptions in this metric may be indicative of broader societal and economic issues.

Highlights

The concept of 'mass formation psychosis' is a trending term on social media, often leading to bans or social exclusion.

Discussions around mass formation psychosis have been prominent in interviews with Joe Rogan and Chris Martinson.

Jeff Snyder, head of global research for Humber Investments, has been writing about the silent depression for a decade.

The term 'silent depression' refers to an unacknowledged worldwide depression ignored by business press, financial media, and politicians.

There is a disconnect between official economic indicators like GDP and unemployment rates and the actual perceived economic health.

Central banks and financial authorities may skew economic data and interpretations to reflect favorably on their management of the economy.

A study found that literature on quantitative easing was more favorable when associated with central banks, indicating a potential bias.

The public is starting to question the authority of central banks and health institutions, realizing that science is about evidence-based conclusions, not authority.

Economic data suggests that the recovery post-2008 has been far from the trend, with significant GDP shortfalls.

The idea that economic growth is non-linear is crucial, and recovery should mean returning to the trend, not just a previous peak.

Global trade and foreign direct investment have been significantly off trend since 2007, with estimates of missing economic activity in the trillions.

The silent depression has led to social crises, including increased drug addiction, overdoses, and suicides, correlating with economic downturns.

Fertility rates and life expectancies in various countries have declined or stagnated, contradicting the idea that wealthier societies have fewer children.

The slowdown in globalization and the associated monetary system may be linked to the economic and social issues experienced globally.

The compounding effect of slow economic growth and rapid social change over 15 years has potentially led to mass formation psychosis.

The COVID-19 pandemic may have acted as a catalyst for pre-existing anxieties and social issues, exacerbating the global sense of unease.

Despite significant global challenges, human resilience remains, and there is a need to connect the dots to address the underlying issues.

Transcripts

mass formation psychosis it's the

hottest term in social media recently

and if you say you might get banned from

somewhere you might not be allowed into

uh your cocktail party depending where

this cocktail party is being held we're

gonna talk about mass formation

psychosis

and what is behind it

the recent joe rogan interview and the

earlier interview with chris martinson

in december

they never quite settled on what is

causing that mass formation psychosis

and jeff jeff snyder the head of global

research for humber investments just a

moment ago you were saying yeah i've

been writing about this for 10 reasons

10 years the reason why and jeff that's

why i call it the silent depression it's

silent because it's unacknowledged if a

tree falls in the forest and there's no

one there to hear it doesn't make a

sound if a worldwide depression

comes along but the business press and

the financial media and the and the

politicians don't acknowledge it and

ignore it

does it exist no it's a silent

depression have i gone too far

yeah absolutely existed but you know

getting into our thesis here it

contributes to what they're calling you

know free-floating anxiety and this mass

formation psychosis as a predicate

condition for it in other words we're

really talking about is

people

yes you see gdp and if you don't put it

on a chart and put the little dotted

line for the previous trend you look at

gdp and think well let's set a record

high so the economy must be good the

unemployment rate in the united states

is at a record low or 50-year low the

economy must be good

everybody says it's booming jay powell i

mean he's the head of the federal

reserve he's got all the credentials

he's got the the fancy office in

washington he says the economy's booming

so who am i to argue otherwise they say

the economy's booming i don't see it and

if this is booming

the hell with it right i mean that's

kind of what we're talking about here is

this vague sense that something's not

right they all say everything's good but

i don't see it the people i talk to

don't see it my neighbors don't see it

we yeah i mean it's not like it's not

like the worst that we could imagine of

the the old movies of the 1930s where

everybody's destitute so maybe

we don't know this it just doesn't seem

to add up here uh we're going to put

some numbers to it we're going to start

with gdp we're going to talk about world

trade we're going to paint a picture

that shows how far off trend we are how

much money how much economic activity

has been missing but before we do jeff

uh you just said if the federal reserve

and jay paul says everything is good and

that made me think of the movie kingpin

from the 1990s

when woody harrelson is explaining why

he's smoking it's because the good

people at the american tobacco industry

have done a number of studies and they

say it's perfectly healthy for you so

the good people at the federal reserve

who are responsible and are held

responsible for how good the economy is

well they're telling you it's perfectly

good ladies and gentlemen jacques are

you saying that they would actually use

economic data or skew economic

interpretations most favorably to their

own purposes i mean that's shocking a

meal shocking there was a study jeff you

remember about quantitative easing and

they reviewed quantitative easing

literature and if you work for the

central bank or you want to be employed

by the central bank or something if

you're related to central banks then

your papers use adjectives that were

very favorable and happy and pleasant

while everyone else said no i don't know

so it's not just jeff and i making

things up there's a study that says

there was also we all know from if you

don't remember you remember this emil

milton friedman i think it was the last

oh yeah before

central banks around the world have

hired what was 90 of all economists so

there you go economic opinion they've

essentially you know sort of like

regulatory capture

except in the reverse where the

regulatory agency that's supposed to be

tasked with managing the economy as if

that's actually possible at least that's

what they described themselves in public

they've basically

bought off economic opinion to say the

most favorable things about the economy

because that reflects most positively on

their job so you can understand there's

there's sort of a bias here not even

sort of a bias there's a very clear bias

in at least that one sense and when it

comes to economics i mean smally

economics you know our understanding of

the economic situation

where do we who are we taught to turn to

for answers if there's ever an economic

question who's the first person on tv

that they're going to interview somebody

from the fed or somebody talking about

somebody from the fed so we're led to

believe or led by the knows to believe

that any kind of economic information

any kind of interpretation about the

economy starts and ends with the fed or

the ecb or any central bank they're the

ultimate decider there's a judge jury

and executioner of everything when it

comes to the economy

the parallels to

the medical and the health field right

now and the crisis that we're going

through and how again the media says

look to these people

they are the epitome the apex

technocratic apolitical and yet what

have we learned

that we can't look to them either for

information okay

there's a wider discussion that we can't

have here that i think we should at some

point is

all about science what is science and

that's i think what the public is

starting to come to terms with because

we had this fuzzy notion beforehand that

science was you know the smart guy on tv

with a good with a cushy job and the

government influence right

science was all about the scientist so

if we had an authoritative figure like a

central banker or somebody from the cdc

on tv giving authoritative proclamations

who are we to argue against it right

because they're the ones that are

working at the central bank they're the

ones that the government has charged and

given all sorts of power and authority

to so how can you possibly argue with

these best and brightest these wise

stewards that's not what science is

science is the ability to examine

evidence and come to reasonable

conclusions so it doesn't matter how

authoritative your presence or an aura

on the internet

if you can't evaluate evidence to come

to reasonable conclusions that offer

predictable

theories you know theories that offer

predictions that can be validated that's

not science that's politics that's

something else entirely i think that's

part of the discussion we are going to

have where people do get this sense that

we're being fed scientism in the form of

pedigree people who have all the right

jobs and all the right education

but the words that come out of their

mouth and the things that they say

do not make any sense with the world

that we live in they don't correlate at

all they don't match and so it's not

really about the scientist people are

starting to get the sense of a real

grassroots

appreciation for science which is make a

theory observe whether or not it comes

true and if it doesn't don't say the

same thing over and over again start

giving us answers to real

real solutions to real problems mass

formation psychosis joe rogan chris

martinson it it was described but not

when and why we're going to do that

right now on this show we're going to

start out with gdp jeff you mentioned it

earlier gdp for the most recent quarter

the third quarter that we have available

is one and a half percent better

than the

q4 2019 gdp in the united states you

could do this around the world as well

we're using the us as a proxy

so that means we have recovered so

things are better jeff tell us tell the

audience again what we always talk about

that human activity is non-linear and

that we also have to include

what would have happened

yeah we live in a non-linear world which

means we're always changing we're always

growing oh we should be getting bigger

that's the way it is just human nature

so

it's not what we were or what you know

recovery doesn't mean we just got back

to where we were when we started this

thing it recovery means getting back to

the same trend that we departed when

this thing all started so if gdp was you

know 19 point whatever trillion in the

fourth quarter of 2019 that's not the

line to gain that's not the touchdown

that's not the end zone the end zone is

going further along the same trend

as if we had never deviated from it at

all so

it's not recovery until we get back on

that same non-linear trend which means

that in the third quarter of 2021 yes we

had we've gone above 2019's peak but we

still aren't yet where we should be or

we would have been had there been no

recession in between or no contraction

in between and we're still about 500

billion in gdps at an annual rate 500

billion short of where we

should be

exactly

is that good is that bad is that a lot

is that a little i mean 500 billion

sounds like a log but

you know how do we how do we how do we

conceive of 500 billion in gdp

not just 500 billion gdp but 500 billion

in gdp that didn't happen how are we

supposed to wrap our minds about our

minds around something like that right

so we are at 19.47 trillion the united

states right now we should be at 20

trillion

had we continued on trend and the

example i always give ladies and

gentlemen if you're not quite following

us is it is moore's law in the

transistor chip in the microchip and how

many transistors we're supposed to have

on a microchip we're supposed to double

every 18 months or so

that's the trend that's moore's law it's

the same thing with economic activity if

we're increasing the number of

transistors

that's not success if you've fallen off

the trend that has existed for decades

that's where we segue to next jeff

is this

us being off by

how many is it 50 billion 500 billion

yeah that's right

500 billion

all right fine maybe we're gonna catch

up to it in the next few quarters jeff

fine that's where you segway two next in

your article

it's not a coveted issue right we have

been off trend for a much longer time

period jeff by the way before you tell

us how long in which time period for the

audience they can sing along by going to

real clear markets

january 7 2022 the economy strength

pre-corona virus was well overstated how

long have we been off trend since around

oh what was it 2008 that seems like it's

an important year for some reason and

maybe an important year for why we would

we'll figure out how we got off trend

but setting that aside yeah

we have been off trend gdp has been

growing it has been increasing it has

been setting record highs up until 2019

but it hasn't been on the same path or

in anywhere close to the same path that

it had been on prior to that break that

deviation around 2007 and 2008. in fact

the gap has grown so large it's it's

literally incomprehensible

the gdp that should have been

in the third quarter of 2020 2021

had the great recession actually been a

big recession we would have had gdp

around what is it a meal 25 something 25

trillion instead of 19.

so we're off about oh 6 trillion or so

and think about that

how do we conceive of 6 trillion first

of all 6 trillion is is already

incomprehensible

but 6 trillion that didn't happen how do

we how are we supposed to appreciate

that 6 trillion that didn't happen in

2021 jeff

exactly five trillion that didn't happen

in 2020

four and a half in 2019 and backwards

and backwards and you add it all up jeff

yeah that's 50 trillion

two and a half how many is that two and

a half usa's of economic activity that's

missing since two thousand last decade

and that's you know we had time into

this and it becomes so hard for our

primitive brains to make sense of all

this and say we've lost about 50

trillion in us in output just in the

united states forget what i mean this is

a global phenomena just in the u.s

there's 50 trillion output that didn't

happen so already it's a counterfactual

which is hard for us to understand

anyway and then these numbers are so

incredibly large there's just no way for

us to make sense of them in our

our everyday day-to-day existence or our

layperson experience or anything you and

i emil we're talking about this we have

a very good grasp on what it means and

what it does because we see it we we see

it on charts we see it in the data we

see we connect all these dots with

markets and everything else so for us

this makes a lot of sense but people who

are listening to this are thinking

what the hell are these people talking

about yeah these are numbers but they're

just numbers and it's hard to make a

that intuitive leap from the numbers

that are out there that's incredibly

huge in fact the bigger the numbers get

the more unbelievable they become

because they are so large

because what you guys are saying is that

we've lost 50 trillion in output

no that's this is crap that's nonsense

here's one another way that we can frame

that same idea jeff uh

i haven't seen you do it lately

but you previously put economic growth

in the united states

since 2007 and you scaled it back to the

great depression which no one that's

listening to the show right now would

say was a wonderful economic period it

was the great depression and you scaled

american growth since 2007 through 2020

2019 whenever the last update you did

yeah this is 2019 that match the time

period

tell us what were the results were we

ahead

were we doing better was america in 2019

the year before kovid was it doing

better than the great america of the

great depression

i think people would be surprised to

learn that the 1930s outperformed in

2010. let me say that again the 1930s in

terms of real gdp outperformed in 2010.

so if you measure gdp from the peak of

2019-29 you go forward to about 1939

1940 i think it's 1940

gdp will end up higher than if you put

the same chart against 2007 to 2019

and it's look the initial collapse was

much bigger in the 1930s than it was in

2008 obviously 2000 2009 were big but

they were nowhere near the size of the

1930s but the economy from 1934 onward

came back more rapidly than anything

like the economy from 2010 forward and

so that we get to this full-on

11-year period the great depression

actually had a better recovery overall i

mean we're just using gdp here we're not

saying that that the 2010s were worse

than the great depression we're saying

is that the end result was

really kind of similar and so that

already should i mean it's we're

comparing to the 1930s and not favorable

i did a similar study but i did it on a

gdp per capita basis and i looked at

many countries that had data both for

the 20th century's great depression and

the 19th centuries

long depression

and i compared it to the 21st century's

silent oppression uh there was 28

countries for which i had data of real

gdp per capita

most of them were trailing

one of the two depressions very few very

very few were doing better

than both previous depressions but let's

just talk about

great britain the united states canada

and who else australia all four

of the of our biggest listener countries

more importantly all four in 2020 were

trailing

where they were during both of the

previous depressions jeff did i make

sense of that or did i mingle that does

the audience

i think what i'm trying to say it makes

sense to you and me because we're used

to this but i think to most people

describing this stuff is incredibly

difficult because you don't have any

frame of reference to easily understand

it in related to your own personal

experience which is really getting at

what we're trying to say we're telling

you by market by data by study that the

last you know 13 years in in the global

economy have been not just awful but

historically awful but that's not what

they've heard that's not it's not easy

for people to

make sense of that in their own personal

experience

which leads us into this our psychology

discussion that we're going to be having

here this idea of free floating anxiety

can i double back because you include

i've got more data i want to share okay

you said global right i brought up four

countries i said they're all trailing

the

the great depression and the long

depression in year 14 of this silent

depression you bring up global trade and

you identify that 10 trillion

is missing in economic activity on a

global basis i've got a couple more jeff

that was half a decade ago that was five

years ago i think it's much bigger still

let me give you in my estimate i looked

at it two different ways the

un conference on trade and development

every year they report uh foreign direct

investment around the world

jeff they have data going back to the

1970s you will not be surprised to learn

that it was on an exponential path until

2007 exponential ever since then it hit

a brick wall it's gone sideways i remind

people that the orange trade warrior

wasn't elected until 2016 and yet

foreign direct investment has flatlined

ever since and now been falling

how much

sixty two and a half trillion by my

measure

of missing foreign direct investment

let's do yeah it's literally

mind-boggling i'm gonna wrinkle your

brain even more jeff

we you talked about missing global trade

five years ago

i'm going to use the dutch

cpb world trade monitor for this data

and their data their measures only go

back to 1990 so that's perhaps an unfair

comparison because that was the you know

that's when the the globalist post-cold

war globalization really took off okay

but had we remained on that trend we

would today have 105

trillion dollars worth of just

merchandise trade that would have

occurred but that's missing

just for global for a global audience

this is how much activity has gone

missing during the silent depression

again it's it's the bigger the numbers

are the harder it is to believe that

this could actually have happened that's

another part of the human evolution that

we're we're conditioned not to not to

immediately accept big things like that

big problems like that because

you know confirmation bias recency bias

whatever it is we're conditioned to

believe that nothing like that could

ever happen our modern lives are so

pushy and easy that we could not

possibly living in some kind of

depression because

we would have heard about it at the very

least right i mean somebody would have

said it on the news

use well we talked about why they don't

talk why they don't say anything on the

news corruption of our institutions

gallup does a survey every year in the

united states

uh what sort of level of confidence do

you have in these institution abcde and

they go through all the institutions in

american public life and they've all

been losing ground as you would expect

during a fourth turning jeff in your

article you segue from the economic to

the social which is where this crisis

has gone we started as a financial

crisis then it became became an economic

one in 2014 i would say it became

political and right around that time too

sometime around that time as well it

started showing up as a social crisis

and you bring up deaths drug addiction

yes yes

yes overdoses those types of things

we've seen those things

and it's not an accident or it's not a

mystery when they started to have yes we

have had a drug problem in this country

in particular for a very long time but

the level of addictions and deaths that

are due to it including suicide

they really changed so the rate of

change in the economy went down starting

around 2007 2008 and the rate of change

in uh fatalities and drug addictions

started to go way up around

surprise surprise 2007 2008 in the

aftermath of those just from a naked

correlation standpoint that's those are

two pretty good data points that as you

just said emil that we started out with

a monetary crisis became a financial

crisis became an economic crisis but as

i've been writing for over a decade it

was never going to be limited the costs

of this disaster

were never going to be limited to just

the financial markets or the economy

that we were going to take a toll not

just in human institutions but also

humans humans themselves in form of lost

work lost souls lost people

deaths and all these other

really awful and sordid uh social

consequences for what people cannot

explain

and so the drug addiction fentanyl the

opioid crisis is just some mystery why

are we doing this to ourselves and if

you don't have any sort of those numbers

as we started talking about it it really

does seem like the world is just falling

apart for reasons we can't put our hands

on

our foreign audience outside the united

states may be saying ah that's just the

us problem the fentanyl

jeff if you'll humor me for just a

couple of minutes i've got some

statistics here from around the world

and two key measures that again

corroborate the story we've been telling

the fertility rate i've brought it up

before in previous shows whenever we

come up to this topic i'm just gonna

read them out for the audience and you

know they can decide you can decide too

jeff united states

1997 the fertility rate which is the

total births per woman united states it

was 1.97

in 2007 jeff had grown to 2.12

2019

1.7

huge fall and you know 2020 is going to

be worse

canada

in the year 2000

they were at 1.49 in 2008 was the peak

the reason i bring up 2007 in the us and

2008 in canada i didn't mention it

because that's the peak and it's gone

down ever since 2000 1.49 2008 canada

1.68

2019

1.47 that's canada

2002 united kingdom that was their low

point 1.63

in 2008 they were at 1.91 they remained

at 1.92 and their abouts all the way to

2012.

no coincidence for euro dollars

yeah

2019 they're at 1.65

all the way from 1.92

australia 2001 was their

low

1.74

births per women it rose to 1.98 jeff by

2008 presently one point six six

forty you know what's not to direct you

know about this is that we're told that

birth rates are tied to economic wealth

right the women want to have fewer

births or fewer children the more

wealthy society is and what we're seeing

here is the opposite of that and by the

way we've brought i think we brought it

we talked about this before maybe a year

ago or longer where this was a

phenomenon we also observed in the 1930s

so this isn't the first time we've seen

this there is a very solid connection

between economic depression long-term

prolonged economic

problems and these social disorders and

that's what this really is a social

disorder and it up ends the orthodoxy

which says rich societies have more have

fewer children not societies that are

growing growing less rich at a slower

price at a slower pace that's

we're in the opposite end of the

spectrum here

i'm just going to continue jeff you jump

in anytime

new zealand 1998 was their low point

1.89

no coincidence they had rose all the way

to 2.18 by 2007

and ever since then they've gone down

now they're at 1.72

life expectancy another so segwaying

segway another one it goes on and on

doesn't it it's just

if you you know just humor me jeff i'm

sorry the united states

all life expectancy basically since the

1970s and all these countries has been

rising basically and if there's any sort

of a pause or a fall that's a sign of

concern in the united states when did

these things start happening

2012 2013.

in 2015 there was a fall then there was

a fall again in 2016

2017 remained unchanged so again

oh that we shouldn't be seeing that in

canada

they fell off their trend in 2013 so

they were on a trend

now they're off their trend yeah sure it

was increasing life expectancy but no

longer at that rate that they had been

experiencing previously

from 2015 to 2017 there was no

improvement

from 2018 to 2019 there was no

improvement the united kingdom jeff

a brick wall again what happened here

they were on a linear path up unbroken

then in 2011 2012 all of a sudden they

saw a fall and essentially no

improvement 2014 to 2015 another fall

2017 to 2018 no change 2019 a fall all

of these are before the coved which you

know it's going to be worse

australia those people are made of good

stock they've had no decrease in their

life expectancy in any year except that

they went off trend in 2008

new zealand jeff

they went off trend in 2010

they saw a decrease in 2014 another

decrease in 2019 and this applies to uh

non-anglophone countries as well

advanced economies i've got something

here germany italy france and spain life

expectancy at birth they all saw

something strange happen in 2014. noex

no surprise to your adult university

fans asking what was happening then talk

about how hard it is connect the dots

think about what we're really saying

here is that we have this global social

costs that are being being exhibited

across all

all sorts of countries around the world

and tying it back together to this you

know what you're really saying the wave

of globalization that swept over the

over the entire world

was a really positive phenomena it did

create prosperity or at least the

illusion of stable prosperity throughout

much of the world and then when it

stopped

you know it's not surprisingly all these

other things all these other negative

develops

developments popped up but we don't

realize and what we don't really think

about because it's not ever admitted

is that the reason globalization took to

the levels and penetrated as far as it

did in the pre-crisis era was because of

this monetary system that doesn't

officially exist so we're trying to

determine and tie back all of these

correlated uh patterns

to a global monetary system that

nobody says it actually exists or that

is it's actually out there that we pay

any attention to it it makes it even

that much harder to put our fingers on

what's really going on here because you

know we call the show euro dollar

university we talk about the euro dollar

all the time but unless people have

heard us or have a paid any sort of

attention to something similar about

what we're saying or what topics that

we're talking about the term eurodollar

itself doesn't appear in anywhere it

doesn't appear in anybody's language so

not only do we have these missing

huge chunks of economy we also have it

we have as what's causing it is this

monetary system that doesn't actually or

doesn't officially exist but it really

exists so talk about how you know

confused public how are we supposed to

make sense of all these things we have a

monetary system that doesn't officially

exist that broke down in ways nobody can

possibly explain creating an economic

depression that nobody admits is

happening leading to all of these

disparate uh social and political

dysfunctions that nobody can explain

either it's it's it's a when society

functions at all in some respects well

we're so resilient humans it's

incredible even

down to the individual if we're gonna

take something positive out of it that's

that's the point right there is that

despite all of these big bad things that

are getting worse here we are and here

we are in relative you know it's

historically speaking relative

prosperity relative levels of peace

those things may be changing but still

you know it's better to live in 2022

then certainly 1940 something or 1440

something so

yes there's it's not all bad out there

but it would be nice if we started to

connect some of these dots together so

that we can do something about it before

something changes for the worse in a

permanent way

so mass psych

mass formation psychosis chris martinson

joe rogan watch those episodes they

don't talk about why

why why are people angry why are they so

dispirited why is something wrong and

i'll use a i'll paraphrase you jeff

because you say this often in your

writing is

the

slower the rate of economic growth

the more rapid

the rate of social

change

that's why people are are angry because

it's been 15 years so we've got this

inverse relationship

and year after year just how we saw in

the economic accounts that we discussed

they compound that volatility compound

such that after 15 years we have

mass formation psychosis because it's

been 15 years of social volatility

building on

year after year jeff that's it from me

yeah i think that's that's probably the

main message here is that look

we've been saying for a long time that

this is this is on the underlying

turmoil that's been bubbling beneath the

surface

and covid was that's the thesis behind

dr malone was that coveted was an

opportunity for this pre-existing

free-floating anxiety along with other

preconditions to combine in just the

right way to lead to all sorts of really

just

what the hell is going on here examples

all around the world and it really

doesn't matter political affiliation

partisan politics all that stuff the

whole world just seemed to go mad

based on the coronavius when that wasn't

really the case we had all of the

preconditions especially this

free-floating anxiety that when when the

coveted crisis and the pandemic hit we

were ripe for the fall

all right jeff well that's all you've

got i don't know how to segue out of

that i i wish you a wonderful

psychologist

all right move on to something else next

week all right sounds good jeff thank

you very much talk to you next week okay

take care emily

[Music]

you