樓市大地震！香港取消印花稅，加入房地產搶錢大戰！萬科“斷臂求生”，是否窮途末路？｜米國路邊社 [20240229#537]

小翠時政財經

1 Mar 202412:46

Summary

TLDRThe real estate markets in China's major cities have seen plunging sales in the first two months of 2024 compared to last year. Developers like Wanda are selling prime assets to stay afloat amidst falling revenues. Meanwhile, Hong Kong has scrapped all stamp duties to lure mainland buyers, intensifying competition. Though national policies may have limited effects, inter-city competition continues. Smaller cities offer perks like covering down payments to retain local buyers. Prices likely haven't bottomed out yet, so prospective buyers may want to wait for new policies before deciding.

Takeaways

😟 China's property market is struggling - top developers saw sales plunge nearly 50% in Jan-Feb 2022 vs 2021
😤 Despite easing policies, China's new home sales keep falling while second-hand home sales rise
😨 Major developers like Vanke are selling top assets to stay afloat - sign that housing market hasn't bottomed yet
😠 Falling home sales are squeezing developers' cash flow
🏠 Hong Kong has scrapped all stamp duties to lure mainland Chinese buyers
💸 Hong Kong property has higher rental yields vs mainland China top cities
🌇 Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar so seen as safer asset than RMB
😎 Easier mortgage rules in HK compensate for higher interest rates
🔄 Mainland cities will likely roll out more stimulus policies to compete with HK
😫 Smaller mainland cities have exhausted policy options and face ghost town risk

Q & A

What was the year-over-year drop in sales for top 100 Chinese real estate companies in January-February 2024?
-Top 100 Chinese real estate companies saw their sales plummet by 48.8% in January-February 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Why are second-hand home sales rising in first-tier Chinese cities while new home sales are falling?
-Second-hand home prices are more negotiable and can go much lower as sellers want to offload properties quickly. This makes them a better value buy than new builds which have less room for price cuts due to costs and policy restrictions.
Why did China Vanke sell 50% of its stake in a top commercial property project at a 26.3% discount?
-As a traditionally conservative company focused on survival, Vanke likely wanted to liquidate a top asset while valuations were still high to stockpile cash, brace for a prolonged industry downturn, and make it through the winter.
What signs suggest Vanke is not at immediate risk of default despite asset sales?
-Vanke has a reasonable 53.9% debt level and enough cash to cover short-term obligations 2.2x over. This indicates it is not facing imminent default risk.
How does Hong Kong aim to attract Chinese buyers after removing all property taxes?
-By removing taxes up to 30% of home values and relaxing mortgage rules, Hong Kong hopes to entice mainland Chinese buyers priced out or frustrated by restrictions in first-tier mainland cities.
What are Hong Kong’s advantages over mainland cities for Chinese property buyers?
-Higher rental yields around 3% vs 1.5% mainland, pegged currency insulating assets from RMB fluctuations, and a freer market.
What is Hong Kong’s main disadvantage compared to mainland cities from a property investment view?
-Higher mortgage rates around 4.5-4.8% on 10-30 year loans due to Hong Kong following US Fed policy vs lower mainland China rates.
How might Hong Kong’s policy changes impact mainland Chinese cities’ real estate markets?
-If sizable capital flees higher mainland property restrictions for better Hong Kong returns, mainland markets may weaken further. Coastal cities could react by relaxing their own rules.
Will stimulus across Hong Kong and mainland cities reverse the broader Chinese property downturn?
-No, as China’s economy hasn’t bottomed out yet. But locally it may prop up struggling markets as players compete - large cities eating smaller ones.
How are small Chinese towns trying to keep property demand as buyers flee to other areas?
-Some local governments have set up funds to lend buyers down payments or even cover their mortgages directly if unable to repay on time.

Outlines

00:00

😞 National property market turmoil after Chinese New Year

Paragraph 1 discusses the dismal real estate sales data for Jan-Feb 2024 showing a nearly 50% year-over-year decline despite stimulus policies. It highlights distress signs like Country Garden's bankruptcy petition and Vanke's asset sell-offs, indicating the market downturn hasn't bottomed out yet.

05:03

😟 Vanke's asset sell-off signifies real estate winter not over

Paragraph 2 analyzes Vanke's sale of its premium commercial property, viewing it as early preparation rather than desperation. It sees no imminent insolvency risks for Vanke based on its latest financials. But the move signals that China's property market hasn't hit rock bottom yet.

10:03

😀 Hong Kong's property market relaxations may force mainland cities' policy changes

Paragraph 3 discusses Hong Kong's stamp duty exemptions aimed at attracting mainland buyers. It analyzes Hong Kong's advantages like higher rental yields and currency stability. While unfavorable for small mainland cities, Hong Kong's move may pressure coastal cities to offer tax reductions.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡樓市

樓市 refers to the real estate or property market. It is a key theme in the video which discusses the downturn in China's housing market. Examples are given such as the 48.8% year-on-year decline in property sales in Jan-Feb 2024.

💡限購

限購 or purchase limits refer to government policies that restrict how many properties a household can buy. The video explains how purchase limits are being relaxed in top-tier Chinese cities, allowing buyers from second-tier cities to purchase investment properties.

💡二手房

二手房 means second-hand housing or existing homes that are resold. The script discusses how second-hand home sales are increasing in first-tier cities as buyers find them more affordable, while new home sales slump.

💡印花稅

印花稅 or stamp duty refers to the tax levied on property transactions in Hong Kong, previously as high as 30% of a home's value. Hong Kong has scrapped stamp duties to boost property demand and compete with mainland Chinese cities for buyers.

💡負債率

負債率 or debt-to-asset ratio measures a company's financial health. The video analyzes developer China Vanke's 53.9% debt ratio in Q3 2022 to assess the real estate market downturn.

💡壓力測試

壓力測試 or stress testing evaluates banks' ability to withstand economic shocks. Hong Kong has suspended these tests that assume a 2% mortgage rate rise, reducing borrowing barriers.

💡按揭成數

按揭成數 refers to the maximum mortgage loan amount as a percentage of a property's value. Hong Kong has increased allowable mortgage loan-to-value ratios to 70% to spur demand.

💡貨幣政策

貨幣政策 or monetary policy governs interest rates and currency supply. The video contrasts Hong Kong's currency peg to the US dollar with China’s autonomous policies.

💡存量房

存量房 means completed housing stock. The script discusses China entering an era focused on selling existing homes rather than new developments, advantageous for larger cities.

💡地方財政

地方財政 means fiscal revenue collected by local governments. The video explains how deeply dependent local governments are on land sales and property taxes.

Highlights

百強房企今年頭兩個月的銷售金額,比去年同期少了近一半,直接腰斬了

一二線城市限購逐漸打開,然後虹吸二線城市的購買力

二手房成交價,更趨近於市場真實的價格

萬科並不是一個到了逼不得已的時候,才會賣資產救急的企業

至少中國的房地產還沒有觸底,未來幾年可能都是一個下行的趨勢

香港全面取消了各種印花稅的徵收,以前你去香港買房,印花稅是很大的一筆開銷

香港是在和內地一線城市競爭,全國的富人

香港的租售比很高,一般都能做到3%以上

去香港買房,等於把人民幣換成了港幣,避免被國內的各種鐮刀收割

香港跟內地相比,樓市唯一的劣勢,大概就是房貸利率偏高

香港這波樓市政策大放鬆,一定會給內地的一線城市,造成很大的資金外流的壓力

內地各大城市應該都著急了,說不定這兩天正在緊急開會呢

中國經濟還沒有觸底,還在繼續向下,大環境不改變,如何迎來轉機呢

大城市吃小城市,誰的地方經濟更發達,誰就能從外部吸引來更多的資金

如果你確有買房的打算,那麼,現在中國的房價還沒有到最低的時候,你不如再等等