交易策略学习第4期🎉:2023年9月💯K到249K,震荡策略

Jesse Lau - A Trader Who Loves Music & AI
22 Jan 202407:06

Summary

TLDRThe speaker analyzes a complex forex trading strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe which won an award. The core logic buys on reversal signals when CCI, MACD and Stochastics indicators align. It seems optimized for ranging markets. The speaker considers incorporating elements of this strategy to improve accuracy of his own system which focuses more on longer term trends.

Takeaways

  • 😊 The video analyzes a trading strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe that won an award
  • 😲 The strategy uses hourly charts and is suitable for volatile market conditions
  • 📈 It goes long when CCI <= -100, MACD > 0 and RSI <= 25
  • 📉 It goes short with the opposite conditions: CCI >= 100, MACD < 0, RSI >= 75
  • ⛔️ The entry logic seems strict, potential fewer trades
  • 💹 The long side may have higher accuracy if filtered with 4H or daily trend
  • 🎯 The strategy fit the volatile and ranging Sep 2023 market well
  • 🤔 It can be a reference though may not apply always
  • 😎 The risk management part is missing in the strategy description
  • 👍 It helps expand my trading strategy perspective

Q & A

  • What trading strategy is the speaker reviewing in this video?

    -The speaker is reviewing a reversal trend trading strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe in September 2023 on EUR/USD and USD/JPY hourly charts.

  • What three indicators does the strategy use for entry signals?

    -The strategy uses the CCI, MACD, and Stochastic Oscillator indicators for entry signals.

  • What are the entry rules for a long trade?

    -Enter long when CCI <= -100, MACD > 0 and Stochastics <= 25.

  • What are the entry rules for a short trade?

    -Enter short when CCI >= 100, MACD < 0 and Stochastics >= 75.

  • Why does the speaker think this strategy worked well in September 2023?

    -Because there was a lot of range-bound price action and volatility that month, which this reversal strategy is suited for.

  • What refinements does the speaker suggest could improve the strategy?

    -Using a higher timeframe trend filter to avoid trades against the overall trend.

  • What was the winner's reward for the competition?

    -The winner made $149K on a $100K account in September 2023.

  • What was the drawdown percentage of the strategy?

    -16.98% drawdown.

  • Why didn't the speaker review the Argentinian trader's strategy?

    -Because it was too complex and opaque with lots of unnecessary code to obfuscate it.

  • What is the overall purpose of this video?

    -To analyze and learn from successful trading strategies used in competitions.

Outlines

00:00

😊 Discussing Trend Reversal Trading Strategy

The first paragraph introduces an Argentinian trader's complex trend reversal strategy using multiple timeframes and indicators like CCI, MACD and RSI. However, the strategy is too obscure to explain clearly. Instead, the host will explain a simpler strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe which identifies reversals using hourly charts.

05:01

📈 Explaining Hourly Reversal Strategy Logic

The second paragraph explains the Zimbabwe trader's strategy in detail. It identifies reversals on EUR/USD and USD/JPY hourly charts using CCI, MACD and RSI. Specifically, it longs when CCI ≤ -100, MACD > 0 and RSI ≤ 25 and shorts under opposite conditions, with fixed stop loss and take profit.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Keyword1

Detailed explanation of Keyword1, including definition, relation to the video's theme, and examples from the script.

💡Keyword2

Detailed explanation of Keyword2, including definition, relation to the video's theme, and examples from the script.

Highlights

Introduction to the 4th session of trading strategy learning.

Re-encounter with an old acquaintance from Argentina who is still active in trading competitions.

Comparison of prize winnings and participation between the narrator and the Argentinean trader.

The complexity of the Argentinean trader's strategy and its concealment through obfuscation.

Shift of focus to a simpler strategy by a trader from Zimbabwe.

Description of the Zimbabwean trader's strategy involving currency pairs EUR/USD and USD/JPY using CCI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators.

Detailed examination of the strategy's buy and sell conditions.

Analysis of the strategy's performance in September 2023 with a significant profit.

Application of the strategy to different currency pairs and its consistency.

Backtesting the strategy on September 30, 2023, to validate its effectiveness in fluctuating markets.

Discussion on the strategy's suitability for choppy market conditions.

Reflection on the personal learning and potential application of the discussed strategy.

Consideration of strategy adjustments to improve accuracy and manage risk.

Concluding remarks on the session and invitation for subscription.

Transcripts

play00:00

今天来讲交易策略学习第4期

play00:03

本来呢,看到了一个老熟人

play00:05

这个阿根廷的兄弟

play00:07

他这个账号

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我在玩那个dukascopy的时候啊

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就经常看到他

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没想到他还在继续玩

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而且确实玩的次数比我多

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然后我这个prize

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我总共获得的是2万多美元

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他获得了4万美元

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就说我获得了14次名次

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他估计有个二三十次了

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但是呢,我看了他的策略

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就觉得搞得太复杂

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所以没法讲

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他这个实际上隐藏的

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整体的策略

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应该不是那么复杂

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但他把那个程序编得

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嗯,用每一天来变换那个手数

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大概就像那个加密

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因为他必须要那个open source才能拿到(奖金)

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像我们参加比赛

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必须要open source才能拿到

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35点的奖励分

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如果他不open source的话

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那基本上就得不了奖

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但是他要open source呢

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他又不想让大家看他的代码

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所以他写了一大堆无关的代码

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昨天我本来还看了一下

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看到后来

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实在是看不下去了

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没什么特别吸引的地方

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所以这个阿根廷的兄弟我就不讲了

play01:17

先找到这个津巴布韦的兄弟

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他的策略很简单

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2023年9月份的时候

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他这个也是获得了奖项

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从100K到249K

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drawdown是16.98%,

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我就来读一读他这个策略

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他在2023年9月份用的这个策略

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应该是他2019年写的

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但是他一直用到现在

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我先看一下他的说明吧

play01:49

打开这个翻译插件

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这个策略是用在欧元兑美元或者美元兑日元的

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用一小时图

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CCI小于等于-100的时候

play02:00

然后MACD大于0

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随机指标小于25的时候

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那就买入

play02:06

然后卖出是相反

play02:08

就CCI大于100

play02:10

MACD小于0

play02:12

随机指标大于75

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看上去就是一个做反转趋势的打法

play02:20

我来具体看一下他的程序

play02:23

看它是不是这么编的

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好,我来看他的程序

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日线图是小时图

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往下走

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货币一个是欧元兑美元

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一个是美元兑日元

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CCI的

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那就看两个货币的CCI

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是小时图

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然后14参数

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一个是CCI12

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这是欧元兑美元的

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CCI14是美元兑日元的

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然后这边是走的美元兑日元的逻辑

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如果CCI小于等于100的话

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然后MACD

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它使用的默认的12、26和9的参数

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这边程序有点不太简洁

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MACD是一样的

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MACD大于0的时候

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然后再看随机指标

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用533的参数

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如果这个随机指标的值小于等于25

play03:18

那就买入

play03:20

这个是针对美元兑日元的

play03:22

15手

play03:24

这个打比赛的都是很猛的

play03:26

风险度非常高

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15手

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滑点是5个点

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基本上就有信号就能成交了

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止损35

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盈利8点

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他就如果算上那个点差的话就是35

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盈亏比是1:5

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要达到80%以上的胜率才能有盈利

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那这个是买入的逻辑

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卖出逻辑是相反的

play03:57

我再看看他的欧元对美元是不是同样的

play04:01

欧元对美元的逻辑是一样的

play04:02

都是CCI小于100

play04:05

然后MACD大于0

play04:07

随机指标小于等于25

play04:10

就买入

play04:11

卖出的时候就是CCI大于等于100

play04:15

MACD小于0

play04:16

随机指标大于等于75

play04:19

就卖出

play04:20

我来打开9月份的欧元兑美元的图

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来对照一下

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我来回溯到2023年9月30号

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就从这根白线往右这段行情

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这个策略比较适合震荡行情

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CCI和随机指标都用的是14

play04:40

MACD用的12、26、9

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在这个CCI大于100的时候

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然后随机指数大于75的时候

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MACD假如是红的话

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那就做空

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成交的比数应该不是特别多

play04:59

你这个要求还比较苛刻

play05:00

这个做空

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因为MACD一直在上方

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所以它这个没有

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就这个位置

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CCI这个是小于-100

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随机指数是小于25

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然后MACD大于0

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那这个就入场了

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止损35点

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盈利8点

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像这个准确率

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抄底的准确率在震荡行情中应该还是可以的

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他这个策略呢

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因为我不大采用这种震荡行情的策略

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所以对我来说还是有一定帮助

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可以参考一下

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拓展一下我的思路

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但没有做一些资金管理的方面

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像这个

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9月份对他这个策略来说

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还是比较合适的

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因为基本上都是震荡

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这里震荡一下

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就下跌

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然后再震荡一下

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都是在一个平台震荡蛮长时间的

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然后在一个短暂的调整

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来看看美元对日元是不是也是这样

play06:04

于是

play06:05

9月1号

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美元对日元这一段时间也是类似的

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所以他的一段时间的绩效还不错

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震荡

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大部分时间都是在震荡的情况下

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那这个策略应该表现还可以

play06:18

然后这可以参考一下这个

play06:21

因为大多数情况

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我们都是在震荡走势中

play06:25

如果用一小时的震荡走势

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来以这种方式来入场

play06:29

但是就是预定

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然后用4小时或者天图趋势

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滤掉反向的趋势

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像这个我像这种

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如果天图肯定是做多的

play06:38

只会做多

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有滤掉那个空头的

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这样的话就说

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CCI和随机指标

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两个震荡指标都处于低位的时候

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MACD反向了

play06:50

才入场

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这样能提高一下这个准确率

play06:54

这样的话我如果只做多

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可能准确率会更高一些

play06:57

好,今天这个交易策略学习第四期

play07:02

我就讲到这里

play07:03

谢谢大家

play07:04

欢迎订阅