Stock Market Watchlist for Tomorrow π₯ β Hot Crypto Take
Summary
TLDRIn this financial analysis video, the host discusses the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing and its impact on investment sentiments. They highlight the market's reaction to unemployment data, the S&P 500's performance, and the importance of watching daily and hourly charts for trading insights. The host also shares successful swing trades from their 'Chart Goat University' community, emphasizing the value of education in trading. They provide an outlook on specific stocks like Apple and Clean Spark, and a special guest offers insights into Bitcoin's market trends and potential future movements.
Takeaways
- π The excitement from watching money being printed is due to its representation of spending power and opportunity, but there's a contemplation about how this perception might change in the future.
- πΉ The markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy by easing monetary policy, with expectations fluctuating significantly, especially regarding the FED funds rate cut in September.
- π Market crashes were triggered by unemployment data, but recent positive news has somewhat reversed this trend, although there's skepticism about the accuracy of the reported data due to potential revisions.
- π The S&P 500 rarely records four consecutive weeks of decline, and the current expectation is for a green candle this week, indicating a potential upturn in the market.
- π The speaker emphasizes the importance of daily and hourly chart analysis for traders to make informed decisions and stay updated with market movements.
- π Chart Goat University is highlighted as a valuable resource for traders, offering guidance and a supportive community for both experienced and new traders.
- π The speaker had a successful trading day with multiple profitable swing trades, one of which yielded a 100% return, showcasing the potential for significant gains in the market.
- π The video mentions Paramount Global's decision to cut 15% of its US workforce, yet its shares rose on second-quarter earnings, indicating market reactions to company-specific news.
- π The speaker predicts a continued uptrend for the market the next day, with a focus on Apple stock and its potential movements, including the possibility of a test of strength and a reversal.
- π Clean Spark is discussed as a potential investment opportunity, with the speaker expressing a bullish outlook despite short-term volatility, and setting specific price targets for entry and exit.
- π Micron Technologies and Apple are identified as stocks of interest for potential swing trades, with the speaker providing technical analysis and price targets for both.
Q & A
What is the general feeling when watching money being printed?
-The general feeling when watching money being printed is a bit of excitement because the green pieces of paper represent spending power and opportunity.
Why is there a fluctuation in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy?
-Expectations fluctuate because the markets want the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy and stimulate the economy by firing up the printing presses again.
What was the market's initial reaction to the Federal funds rate for September?
-People were asking for a 75 basis point cut right off the bat, indicating they were looking for deep cuts immediately.
What caused the market crash mentioned in the script?
-The market crash was triggered by some data regarding unemployment that came out, causing a negative reaction.
How did the morning's report impact the market's downturn?
-The morning's report, which was positive, cancelled the capitulation downturn that had been ongoing.
What is the significance of the S&P 500 not giving a red candle four weeks in a row?
-It signifies a potential market recovery or at least a temporary halt in the continuous downtrend, as the market rarely goes down for four consecutive weeks.
What was the successful trading day outcome mentioned in the script?
-The successful trading day involved entering a number of swing trades that worked out well, including one that gave a 100% return.
What is the purpose of the 'Chart Goat University' mentioned in the script?
-The 'Chart Goat University' is a community where members, including seasoned traders, provide guidance and help to each other, making it a pro trading community with a positive environment.
What is the current stance on CleanSpark according to the script?
-Despite some volatility, the stance on CleanSpark is bullish overall, with the belief that it will perform well if Bitcoin and altcoins push up towards the end of the year.
What is the importance of watching the charts in trading as per the script?
-Watching the charts is crucial in trading as it helps to react to market movements rather than guessing or trying to jump ahead of the market, allowing traders to follow the market's direction more accurately.
What is the current view on Apple stock according to the script?
-The view on Apple stock is that it may see bullish days ahead, but there is also a potential for a bearish scenario if the market corrects and goes down, with true support for Apple stock being between $192 and $182.
What is the significance of the 200 EMA in Bitcoin trading according to the guest in the script?
-The 200 EMA is significant as it has historically indicated local bottoms and good buy opportunities in a bull market. If Bitcoin stays above this moving average, it is seen as a bullish signal.
What is the potential next move for Bitcoin according to the guest's analysis in the script?
-The potential next move for Bitcoin is to watch for a close above the 200 EMA on the daily chart. If it happens, it could indicate a bullish trend, but if not, the price might bounce around, and there could be more accumulation in the altcoin market.
Outlines
π Market Sentiments and Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy
The speaker begins by discussing the public's excitement over money printing and its representation of spending power and opportunity. They ponder whether this sentiment will persist in the future. The talk shifts to the Federal Reserve's potential actions to stimulate the economy by easing monetary policy, with market expectations fluctuating significantly, especially regarding the FED funds rate cut in September. The speaker mentions a market crash triggered by unemployment data but notes a recent positive report that has cast doubt on the accuracy of such data due to revisions. They highlight the S&P 500's historical pattern against consecutive weekly losses and predict a market bounce, using the 'Spy' chart to illustrate potential trends and support levels. The speaker also shares their successful trading day, emphasizing the value of the 'Chart Goat University' community for trading guidance and education.
π Analyzing Market Trends and Individual Stock Performance
The speaker continues by cautioning about position sizing and overnight holds due to the market's sensitivity to data adjustments and potential downturns. They forecast a continued uptrend for the market but focus on Apple stock, suggesting it may face a test of strength and possible reversal. Using technical analysis, they discuss the importance of the 21 EMA and resistance levels for the S&P 500, indicating a potential V-shaped recovery. The speaker also addresses Clean Spark's postponed earnings report, expressing a bullish outlook despite short-term volatility, and provides a detailed analysis of its price movements and potential entry and exit points. They conclude by briefly mentioning other stocks like Micron Technologies and Nvidia, hinting at potential trading opportunities.
π Apple's Market Outlook and Cryptocurrency Market Analysis
The speaker delves into Apple's stock performance, highlighting a bearish ascending channel and suggesting that significant support levels lie between $192 and $182. They recall a previous successful trade based on Warren Buffett's sale of Apple shares and indicate a potential bearish view if Apple faces rejection at resistance levels. The speaker also introduces a special guest, Mark from Tribal Trades, to discuss Bitcoin's sideways movement and its critical price zones. They focus on the 200 EMA as a key indicator for market sentiment, with historical data suggesting bullish trends when above this average. The discussion includes potential support and resistance levels, the significance of the CME Gap, and the implications of the hash ribbons buy signal for future price movements.
π Bitcoin's Market Dynamics and Strategic Trading Insights
In the final paragraph, the speaker and their guest, Mark, examine Bitcoin's current market position, focusing on the importance of the 200 EMA as a bullish/bearish indicator. They discuss the potential for a bounce from this level and the significance of closing prices above it for confirming a bullish stance. They also consider the possibility of a market rejection leading to a downward price movement, emphasizing the importance of watching for specific candlestick patterns at key resistance levels. The conversation concludes with a reminder to follow the charts for trading decisions, a nod to the potential of the altcoin market for accumulation, and a parting message of peace and blessings to the audience.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘FED
π‘Monetary Policy
π‘Basis Point
π‘Unemployment Data
π‘S&P 500
π‘EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
π‘Swing Trade
π‘Chart Goat University
π‘Cryptocurrency
π‘Bitcoin
π‘Technical Analysis
Highlights
Excitement over money printing and its representation of spending power and opportunity, with a contemplation of future perspectives on this issue.
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy by cutting rates, with a focus on the FED funds rate for September and a 75 basis point cut anticipation.
Market reaction to unemployment data and skepticism regarding the accuracy of the reported figures, with concerns about potential revisions.
Historical market trend observation that the S&P 500 rarely records four consecutive weeks of decline, with an analysis of the current market's potential to bounce back.
A successful trading day with multiple profitable swing trades, including one that yielded a 100% return.
Introduction and promotion of the 'Chart Goat University' as a community for traders offering guidance and educational resources.
Emphasis on the importance of reacting to market movements rather than attempting to predict them, advocating for a strategy based on chart analysis.
Presentation of 'hot plays' and trade setups for both swing and option traders, along with a promised 'hot crypto take' featuring a special guest.
Analysis of the market's response to an initial jobless claims report and its impact on the market's direction.
Discussion of Paramount Global's workforce reduction and its market implications, highlighting the importance of monitoring unemployment data.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500, focusing on key resistance levels and the potential for a market uptrend.
Detailed examination of Clean Spark's stock performance and future potential, including personal trading strategies and stop-loss settings.
Micron Technologies' stock analysis, including potential entry points and technical indicators for a potential swing trade.
Apple stock's technical analysis with a focus on bearish patterns and potential resistance levels for future trades.
Special guest Mark from Tribal Trades discusses Bitcoin's market status, focusing on critical price zones and potential future trends.
The importance of watching candlestick patterns for market direction cues and the significance of closing prices on moving averages.
Final thoughts on the potential for the market to continue its uptrend if certain technical levels are maintained or surpassed.
Transcripts
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I'm
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things
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right now the feeling that we get when
we watch Money Getting printed is a
little bit of excitement because each of
those green pieces of paper still
represent spending power and opportunity
I wonder when we look back at these
types of videos in the future if we'll
still feel the same way why do I mention
that because the markets want the FED to
fire up the printing presses again and
restimulate this economy by easing
monetary policy and the expectations
have begun to fluctuate quite quite a
bit looking at the FED funds rate for
September people are asking for a 75
basis point cut right off the bat
they're looking for deep Cuts right away
now we know that the markets began to
crash on some data that came out
regarding unemployment and this morning
we actually got some good news now
there's a ton of people that are
doubting what the accuracy of this
morning's report and are concerned that
a week from now or two weeks from now
when they revise those numbers because
they'll give you the initial publish
data and then often they will finalize
it later that the number actually isn't
accurate but that's what cancelled the
capitulation downturn that we had been
in now if you guys remember I've showed
you the Spy chart many times and I've
said at least 10 times in the last
handful of videos that the market rarely
goes down for a fourth week straight the
S&P 500 rarely gives a red candle four
weeks in a roll and I mentioned that we
still had today and tomorrow to turn the
candle green and so it appears we are
still bouncing I'm going to take you
guys into the Spy chart and show you
where we might be going and what level
we need to hold to know that we are
still in an uptrend I'm watching the
charts just like you should be from day
to day and hour to hour now I have to
highlight that we had a very successful
trading day I entered a number of Swing
trades that worked out beautifully one I
alerted that gave me a 100% return and I
think a lot of folks in the chart goat
University followed and made some good
wins today it's not just me over there
there's a ton of guys in there providing
guidance it is a university after we
made the swing trade I broke it down and
I took some time to teach as to why the
trade worked out as well as give some
guidance on the spy for the rest of the
day and it all played out exactly as
predicted guys if you're not a member of
the chart goat University you should
come over there and check it out the swj
heart fam is growing rapidly and it's a
very active Community with a ton of
guidance from not just myself but a lot
of other seasoned Traders now I believe
that it's a pro trading Community but
there's a ton of people that are just
getting going and it's a place where you
can find help and get questions answered
not just from me but a ton of people
that are extremely helpful I think it's
an extremely positive Community don't
sleep on it this is the stocks with Josh
show thank you for hitting the like
thank you for dropping a heart and
saying hi if you are new to this page
hit that like and the subscribe so you
can get some help trading these choppy
markets using the charts as a guide we
are not trying to jump ahead of the
market we are trying to react we're not
proactive to the market we're not trying
to guess we're trying to wait and see
what the candles and the charts tell us
and then we follow carefully behind
believing those charts can I get a like
on this video if you are on the same
page now today I'm going to give you
guys a couple hot plays trade setups
that I'm looking at that are both for
swing Traders as well as option Traders
and I'm going to give you a hot crypto
take I'm going to bring a special guest
on to highlight a couple of the
important news stories surrounding
Bitcoin and some of the charts that he's
looking at and I'll bring him on in just
a little while so why did the markets
turn green today well we got a better
initial jobless claims report than had
been expected on that note right when I
was going to make this video I saw a
news story pop up Paramount Global
announces it will cut 15% of its us
Workforce shares rise on the second
quarter earnings I underline that
breaking news story just to remind you
that the market is going to be watching
unemployment moving forward and as I
said earlier that the data that we just
got may not be accurate data and so it
can be quickly adjusted and the markets
could return to a downtrend so on that
note be careful about your position size
and be careful about holding plays
overnight in the local Trend which means
tomorrow I see the markets continuing
higher I'm going to highlight Apple
stock today and show you where I think
it might be going before it could face
another test of strength and a possible
reversal to the downside I'm not
predicting that I'm just showing you I'm
going to show you guys what I'm watching
there let's just start off though and
take a quick peek at the spy and exactly
what targets I've got on that all right
as I said before the market rarely goes
down four straight weeks in a row and
that I was expecting the fourth weekly
candle to go green and that's what we've
got right here I'm showing you the 5-day
trading chart now we need to get above
531 and we finished the day right at 531
but the good news is that we are are
currently sitting above the 21 EMA now
if we had gotten rejected there then it
would have been a pretty serious warning
sign for the markets at the moment it
appears as if we've got a nice little
bounce going the next test is going to
be 539 we have to see how tomorrow's
candle closes we want to at least see
this week close a candle above 531 and
that would give us the signal that we
could potentially be in that v-shaped
recovery or at least moving to 539 again
we're not out of the woods just yet
because this is a data driven news
driven market and we could easily see
another Smackdown before moving higher
all right now I want to briefly talk
about clean spark they were going to
report earnings this evening but they
postponed it this is an active swing
trade for the chart goat University I've
been buying since
$10.56 now I have a stoploss set and I'm
watching it very carefully but even if
we were to get another down candle I'm
still bullish overall on the opportunity
on cleanspark I would still be wanting
to reenter right away on any form of dip
I might just wait for a flash down even
if we had bad earnings now I'm coming
out here to outline that for you because
sometimes you take an early start in a
play and there's still some volatility
in the micro I'm going to play it
cautiously in the macro
I'm absolutely bullish on clean spark
because I believe that when we do
finally get a move back to the upside on
bitcoin that gets confirmed and we begin
to push up towards the end of this year
on bitcoin and the altcoins I believe
clean spark is going to make its way
back up to the top of the range which is
easily 20 to $23 let's go look at that
chart real quick okay we're going to
start off on a daily time frame and yes
price has broken down quite a bit it
Consolidated around $16 for a very long
time just like Bitcoin was consolidating
around 60k and when Bitcoin broke down
clean spark broke down with it now it
broke beneath our bullish ascending
Channel but we have since recaptured the
channel and now we are sitting ominously
at the bottom of the channel again if we
were to break I've got my stop set right
beneath $10.50 which is largely where I
entered my position I have accumulated
some more bringing up my average cost
that's where I've currently got my stop
loss set and if we did break it and I
triggered or sold my position during
earnings then I would be wanting to
reaccumulate somewhere around
$8.3 because I see big opportunity if
you want to be a conservative investor
and you want to take this cautiously
then 835 is a pretty nice price not to
ignore on clean spark if we were then
just a return back to this area of $16
you would have a near 100% gain
opportunity now I believe that if
Bitcoin gets to 80k in the months ahead
I could see clean spark easily hitting
this $23 Mark which again if you got in
at 1050 and held through some turbulence
even if it went down as low as $8 if my
projection is correct then you would not
be at all upset about buying in this
range so if Bitcoin goes higher in 2024
and 2025 clean spark is absolutely going
to follow it it's one of the best
performing minor stocks uh of this
particular bit coin cycle and I don't
see why that overall trend won't
continue even if we were to come down to
$835 we'd still be making a higher low
which I believe would then take us on to
make a higher high 2016 then 23 and then
32 is my overall Target for the big move
in 2025 now I'm going to quickly give
you two more charts because I'm running
out of time and we need to make time for
that hot crypto take so let's go back
into the charts to look at Micron
Technologies and Apple stock okay hey
guys Micron Technologies like smci and
Nvidia has been on an explosive move up
since December of 2022 now we absolutely
hit a top at around 160 and we have seen
very strong profit taking and rejection
now personally I'm watching this overall
bearish ascending Channel now I am
foreseeing that we're going to touch the
bottom of that channel which I've got at
around
8070 we want to see what type of candles
we get in this area we want to see if
the macd curls up we want to see if the
stochastic curls up before entry but
this is an area of high interest and you
can see these little alarm clocks or
signals that I've got set at 8070 and
I've got another one set at
7480 now what we want to see is for it
to respect a trend line we want to see
if it respects the ascending Channel if
it doesn't respect that we want to see
if it respects previous structure and if
it doesn't respect that we want to see
if it'll bounce on the structure beneath
that around
$64 but I am looking at Micron
Technology as a potential swing trade in
the days ahead now I'm going to take you
into the Apple chart here in just a
minute and let me remind you that the
last time we traded Apple we got a 4
100% win on that trade it was puts to
the downside and we entered them right
before Warren Buffett had announced that
he had sold 50% of his bag and the
reason why I mentioned it is I want to
remind you Warren Buffett sold 50% of
his bag a pretty big position to take
against one of the most important
companies in the world now I believe
that Apple stock is still going to see
bullish days ahead but ultimately if
this Market wants to correct and go down
true support for Apple stock is between
192 and 182 those are the most important
support lines in the days ahead and
there still may be companies attempting
to unwind a very large position in apple
stock and because of that I'm going to
give you a potential bearish View on
Apple and where I would be looking for
Price rejection to consider another
Apple put play let's go look at that
chart all right on Apple stock we have
some bad patterns you guys hear me talk
about these trading patterns all the
time right here we have a bearish
ascending Channel broke hard to the
downside now we have a bearish ascending
wedge which would bring price back to
2116 we're currently sitting at 2113
which means tomorrow could be another
good day for Apple we also have this
beautiful bullish uh candle that we
printed today on Apple I think price
would pass
2680 probably get above to around 218
hit the top of my resistance line that
I've drawn here and that's where we need
to watch it carefully because if we end
up getting a rejection candle at that
important and significant area of that
used to be support but is now turning
resistance then we know that there is a
ton of more profit taking ahead for
apple and room for it to unwind and for
the price to continue to come down and
then we're going to try to catch and get
some of that I've got signals set for
apple and you'll get more updates and
alerts on these stocks with Josh
personal patreon at which is the chart
goat University where not only am I
giving you alerts but I'm also
explaining my trades to you guys so that
you can learn and if I stop doing this
thing you guys can continue to make Wall
Street your ATM that's the goal
education education I've said it so many
times learn test execute most Traders
begin with executing then they learn the
hard lesson and then they start over
testing again hopefully you're not on
that journey and if you want to avoid it
get into the chart goat University all
right let me just bring on my special
guest so we can get a hot crypto take
and keep our eyes on our crypto
portfolio as well please help me welcome
mark from tribal trades all right Mark
Bitcoin has been moving sideways for
over 170 days we're still underneath
this critical Price Zone of 60,000 600
that's the important price point that
Bitcoin has has to recover above for us
to believe that we're moving back to
all-time highs and so we're still in the
hands of the Bears for as long as we're
beneath 6,600 but the fact is we just
bounced off of$
49,000 and here we are
$10,000 higher at
59,000 there's could be a ton of bears
waiting to pounce on the Bulls at that
level and we might be headed towards
another leg down are you bullish or are
you bearish what's your hot crypto
take that's a great question so I'm
looking at the 200 EMA on The Daily time
frame that's sitting right now at about
59400 now historically in every bull
market when Bitcoin has gone below that
it hasn't stayed number one below it for
very long uh number two it's always
worked out to be a local bottom and a
good buy opportunity so when we're while
we're above that moving average and
right now we're sitting bang on it uh
Josh so while we're above that I'm
waiting for that daily close while we're
above it I'm bullish and while we're
below it I'm I'm bearish because we
could bounce off it and come down and
reach some of those lower targets of
course we've got the CME Gap right above
it that's sitting at about 59,500 to
about
62,500 they generally get filled sooner
rather than later now of course we could
come back down reject off that 200 EMA
then later on bounce back and fill that
uh that EMA Gap we've also had the hash
ribbons Buy Signal fire off and that
historically has been another good buy
the dip it doesn't fire off many times
only 19 times in bitcoin's entire
history so only probably about twice a
year over the 10 11 years has it fired
off or less than that uh and then
literally I'm not if we do come down I'm
not really seeing I I I watched your
video the other day I think you were
spot on you were calling for 47k 47k was
exactly how what I felt we were going to
come down to the other day we didn't
quite get to it doesn't mean we're going
to come down to it at this point if we
do get a a bullish close above the 200
EMA on The Daily I'm less likely to say
we're going to come and tag that and
remember the miners the cost of mining a
Bitcoin right now is4
$5,000 historically if we've lost that
level we have gone into a bare market
and so I'm not calling for some of the
super low levels that I've seen uh
online or or posted around by people uh
while it's
possible I do think that if we did get
down there I'd really question if we're
still in a bull market so I'm GNA I'm G
to pin my uh Ta on the 200 EMA daily
sitting at about 59400 I want to see
some close I'd love to see a three-day
close over that uh maybe a weekly close
a retest and then off to the races would
be great if not I think we could just
bounce around here for a little while um
while there's some more accumulation and
definitely the altcoin market has been
great for accumulation as well well I
love that hot crypto take and I just
want to uh clarify that I'm not calling
for Bitcoin to go back to
47k my and my specific call was that
that is the lowest that I could see us
go if we went into a Black Swan event
maybe a really bad news story uh you
know breakout or escalation of War we
could potentially come back and tag that
level but at the moment I would agree
with Tim that uh as long as we were
watching the charts I said it earlier
when we were talking about stocks do
yourself a favor don't get in front of
the price get behind it let's see what
it does if it recovers those moving
averages and it closes on a daily or a
weekly candle then we can get even more
excited if we get rejected what would
rejection look like well it would look
like a real tall Wick rejection candle
it means that the market was moving
bullish and then the Bears came and
pushed the price down so at a key level
of resistance or support watch the
candles now Mark just gave you that
important level now it's time to watch
the candle don't take a risk position
until the candle tells you what it wants
to do we're still in a new driven cycle
but I would also agree with Mark that we
do not have to come back to 47k at all
not at all and so we're going to be
watching that uh close potentially I
think that 59 to 60 level that he's
referring to is super important
ultimately on the weekly time frame we
have to recapture our trade zone which
I've defined as 6,600 if we get a little
higher and we get up there and we close
the weekly then there is no reason to
believe that we won't go back to the top
of the r range and you might have missed
the best buying opportunity yet so far
in 2024 not predicting that I'm
following the charts and I recommend
that you follow the charts too I want to
remind you guys again this is Mark from
tribal trades go check out his channel
now I'm going to leave a link to one of
his videos that I think you need to
watch at the end of this video go check
out that video and hit subscribe when
you're on his page appreciate you being
here Mark today uh peace and blessings
fam we'll see you tomorrow talk to you
soon byebye
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