Market Mayhem: What You Need to Know

Summary

In this special episode of 'Wealth on', host Andrew Brill and portfolio manager Adam Johnson discuss the severe market sell-off on August 5th, 2024. They delve into the factors contributing to the downturn, including global economic concerns and algorithmic trading. Johnson emphasizes the historical context of market corrections, advising investors to view the situation as a buying opportunity rather than a cause for panic. He also addresses the impact of Warren Buffett's Apple share sale and the role of the VIX (Fear Index) in gauging market sentiment, ultimately encouraging a long-term perspective on investing.

Takeaways

• 📉 The script discusses a significant market sell-off, highlighting the emotional responses and the importance of recognizing market corrections as potential buying opportunities.
• 📈 Despite market fluctuations, the speaker emphasizes that corrections have historically been followed by new highs, suggesting a long-term positive outlook for stocks.
• 🧐 The host, Andrew Brill, and guest, Adam Johnson, discuss the impact of market news, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and job reports, on investor behavior and market movements.
• 🗣️ Adam Johnson shares his personal experience of calming both his own and his investors' nerves during market downturns, advocating for a measured approach to investing.
• 📊 Johnson points out that the Japanese market's drop acted as a catalyst for the global sell-off, illustrating how international events can influence local markets.
• 🤔 The conversation touches on the psychological aspect of investing, noting that emotional decisions are rarely correct and can lead to hasty, unwise moves.
• 📉 The script mentions the VIX (Volatility Index), indicating that the day's spike was the third highest in history, suggesting extreme market fear.
• 💡 Adam suggests that market panic can lead to overreactions, creating opportunities for thoughtful investors to buy stocks at lower prices.
• 💰 The discussion includes the strategy of selling half of a position when a stock reaches its target price, allowing for profit-taking and reinvestment in other opportunities.
• 🔢 Adam runs numbers to reassure investors, pointing out that the average correction over the past five years has been 15%, and all have been buying opportunities.
• 👴 The script also addresses Warren Buffett's sale of half his Apple position, suggesting it as a prudent move rather than a signal of panic, and indicating he may reinvest the cash.

Q & A

What is the significance of the term 'corrections' in the context of the stock market?

In the stock market, 'corrections' refer to a decline of at least 10% from the recent peak. Corrections are part of the market's natural cycle and are often seen as buying opportunities by investors.

How many corrections of 10% or more have occurred in the past five years according to the transcript?

There have been 15 corrections of 10% or more in the past five years.

What is the average percentage of these corrections mentioned in the script?

The average correction has been 15%.

What was the context of the market sell-off on Monday, August 5th as discussed in the transcript?

The market sell-off was severe, with the Japanese market down 12%, and the U.S. market futures down as much as 6-8%, leading to a significant opening drop in the U.S. market.

Who is Adam Johnson in the context of this transcript?

Adam Johnson is the portfolio manager of the Bullseye American Ingenuity fund, author of the Bullseye Brief investment newsletter, and a guest on the 'Wealth and Andrew Brill' show.

What advice does Adam Johnson give to investors during times of market panic?

Adam Johnson advises investors to step back, take the long view, and recognize that volatility is part of investing. He suggests that such times can be opportunities to buy, rather than sell.

What is the VIX index, and what does it indicate when it spikes?

The VIX index, also known as the Fear index, measures the market's expectation of volatility. A spike in the VIX indicates that investors are expecting higher market volatility and are buying options for protection.

What was the VIX index reading on the day of the market sell-off discussed in the transcript?

The VIX index reading was the third highest in history, indicating extreme fear and uncertainty in the market.

What is the role of algorithms in the stock market, and how do they contribute to market movements?

Algorithms can account for a significant portion of daily trading volume. They are programmed to make instantaneous decisions based on certain metrics and can contribute to rapid price changes, including sharp declines, by triggering sell-offs when expectations are not met.

What is the advice given by Adam Johnson to investors who are concerned about their retirement savings after a market downturn?

Adam Johnson advises investors to recognize that markets fluctuate and that downturns are part of the investment journey. He suggests maintaining a long-term perspective and considering reducing stock holdings if volatility causes significant anxiety.

What is the significance of Warren Buffett selling half of his Apple position according to the transcript?

The sale of half of Warren Buffett's Apple position is significant as it suggests that even seasoned investors take profits and rebalance their portfolios when stocks reach their target values. It also indicates that Buffett may be looking to deploy the cash into other investments.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Market Volatility and Buying Opportunities

The speaker, Andrew Brill, introduces a special episode addressing the severe market sell-off on August 5th. He welcomes Adam Johnson, a portfolio manager and author, to discuss the situation. Adam shares that despite a significant downturn, historical data shows that corrections of 10% or more over the past five years have been buying opportunities, with an average correction of 15%. He emphasizes that markets fluctuate and advises against making emotional decisions to sell, instead suggesting a measured approach to investing, even in the face of panic.

05:00

📈 Identifying Opportunities Amidst Market Turmoil

Adam Johnson discusses the emotional response to market downturns and how investors react. He mentions specific stocks like Celestica and Nvidia, which saw significant drops but also opportunities for buying. Adam argues that such market movements present a chance for long-term investors to step in and purchase stocks at lower prices. He also touches on the importance of not letting short-term volatility dictate investment decisions, especially for those whose retirement savings are involved.

10:01

📊 Analyzing Market Indicators and Investor Behavior

The conversation delves into the analysis of market indicators, such as the VIX (Fear Index), which spiked to its third-highest level in history, only behind days during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. Adam points out that extreme market reactions, like the worst open in four years, are often driven by emotional decisions rather than rational analysis. He uses examples like Warren Buffett's sale of half his Apple position to illustrate smart investing practices and suggests that current market conditions may be an opportunity for strategic buying.

15:02

🤖 The Role of Algorithms in Market Fluctuations

Adam discusses the impact of algorithms on daily trading volume, noting that up to 75% of it is electronic. He explains how algorithms can exacerbate market fluctuations, particularly during earnings season, by instantly reacting to press releases and selling off stocks that don't meet certain metrics. This automated selling can lead to significant drops in stock prices. Adam advises investors to take a long-term view, recognizing that volatility is part of investing and that patience can lead to profitable outcomes over time.

🚀 Long-Term Perspective and Market Recovery

In the final paragraph, Adam encourages investors to step back and take a long-term perspective, reminding them that volatility is inherent in the market and that good years can follow bad ones. He uses personal experience to illustrate that even after significant downturns, the market can recover and provide substantial returns. Adam suggests that the current market conditions may be signaling a bottoming process, indicating potential buying opportunities rather than reasons to sell.

Keywords

💡Corrections

Corrections in the financial context refer to a decline in the stock market of 10% or more from its peak. In the video, the term is used to highlight historical market downturns, emphasizing that such corrections have occurred 15 times in the past five years, averaging a 15% drop. These corrections are portrayed as buying opportunities, illustrating the cyclical nature of market movements.

💡Portfolio Manager

A portfolio manager is a professional who oversees investment portfolios by making buy and sell decisions for securities in the portfolio. In the video, Adam Johnson, the portfolio manager of the Bullseye American Ingenuity Fund, provides expert commentary on market trends and offers advice to investors during a market sell-off.

💡Stock Market Implosion

The term 'stock market implosion' describes a rapid and severe decline in stock prices, often caused by panic selling. In the script, this concept is used to describe the market's condition on the day of recording, indicating a significant drop in value and a heightened state of investor anxiety.

💡Volatility Index (VIX)

The Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, is a measure of market expectations for near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 index options. In the video, the VIX is mentioned as having one of the highest readings in history, indicating extreme fear in the market and suggesting that the sell-off may have been overdone.

💡Algorithmic Trading

Algorithmic trading refers to the use of computer programs that follow a defined set of instructions to execute trades. In the script, it is suggested that a significant portion of the market's drop was due to algorithmic selling, where pre-programmed responses to certain triggers led to rapid and substantial declines in stock prices.

💡Earnings Reports

Earnings reports are official releases by publicly traded companies that disclose their financial performance over a specific period. In the video, the impact of earnings reports on stock prices is discussed, particularly how they can trigger algorithmic selling if the reported figures do not meet market expectations.

💡Market Rotation

Market rotation is a strategy where investors move their funds between different market sectors based on their performance and potential for growth. The script mentions a rotation from AI stocks to small caps, indicating a shift in investor focus due to changing market conditions.

💡Interest Rate Cuts

Interest rate cuts refer to a central bank's decision to reduce interest rates to stimulate economic activity. In the video, the anticipation of rate cuts in September is mentioned as a factor that initially led to a rotation from AI stocks to small caps, as lower rates can benefit certain sectors more than others.

💡Recession

A recession is a period of negative economic growth that lasts for at least two consecutive quarters. The script addresses fears of a recession following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, but counters this by pointing out that GDP growth remains positive, suggesting the economy is not yet in a recession.

💡Buying Opportunity

A buying opportunity arises when asset prices fall to levels that are considered undervalued by investors, making them attractive for purchase. The video emphasizes that past market corrections have ultimately been buying opportunities, as stocks have rebounded to new highs after each downturn.

💡Long-Term Investing

Long-term investing involves holding investments for an extended period, typically years or decades, to achieve financial goals. The video encourages a long-term perspective, suggesting that temporary market downturns should not deter investors from their long-term investment strategies.

Highlights

In the past five years, there have been 15 corrections of 10% or more, with an average correction of 15%, all of which turned out to be buying opportunities.

Despite market fluctuations, stocks have made new highs after almost every correction, indicating long-term growth potential.

Market sell-off on August 5th prompted a special episode to address investor concerns and market behavior.

Portfolio manager Adam Johnson emphasizes the importance of not reacting to market panic and considering it a buying opportunity.

The discussion highlights the emotional nature of market decisions and the need for a rational approach to investing.

Adam Johnson shares his personal experience of calming both his investors and himself during intense market fluctuations.

The transcript discusses the impact of Japan's market drop on global investor sentiment, leading to a 'straw that broke the camel's back' scenario.

Adam explains the rotation from AI stocks to small caps and the subsequent rate cuts announcement as initial triggers for market sell-off.

The weaker-than-expected jobs report and concerns over the Fed's delayed action contributed to market unease.

GDP growth figures and Atlanta Fed forecasts are used to argue against recession fears, suggesting ongoing economic growth.

Adam advises against making emotional investment decisions and encourages a long-term perspective.

The interview touches on the role of algorithms in market volatility and their influence on stock price movements.

Warren Buffett's sale of half his Apple position is discussed as a strategic move rather than a sign of panic.

The VIX (Fear index) spike to one of its highest levels in history is noted, indicating extreme market fear.

Adam suggests that the market's reaction to the VIX spike and the worst open in four years may indicate an overreaction.

The transcript concludes with advice for investors to take a long view, avoid short-term grading, and recognize volatility as part of investing.

The discussion encourages investors to step back, assess the situation rationally, and consider market dips as buying opportunities.

Transcripts

and I ran the numbers this morning just

to make sure uh I could say this with

confidence and I can um in the past five

years uh Andrew there have been um 15

Corrections and by corrections I sort of

said 10% or more right there have been

15 Corrections of 10% or more and the uh

average correction uh has been 15% so 15

uh moves of down 15% on average and

everyone ended up being a buying

opportunity some took longer than others

uh you know to come back but they were

all opportunities to buy and stocks went

on to make new highs after almost every

single one of those so for someone who

says gosh uh I have to go back to work I

can't retire no that's not accurate um

recognize that markets go up and markets

go down it's not a straight

line welcome to wean I'm your host

Andrew Brill this is a special episode

due the severe Market sell-off on Monday

August 5th it is the time of the Leo and

the market is definitely roaring in the

wrong

direction I'd like to welcome Adam

Johnson back to weam at is the portfolio

manager of the bullseye American

Ingenuity fund and author of author of

the bullseye brief investment newsletter

Adam thanks so much for taking a few

minutes today I know I know since Friday

you've been busy extremely busy calming

the nerves of investors watching the

stock market implode so I apologize for

my informal nature I didn't expect to be

here today but the stock market uh took

a little bit of a dump so what the heck

is going on Adam well I'll tell you by

the way it's it's not just uh my

investors nerves I've been calming it's

my own nerves I've been Cal I mean it's

been intense I woke up this morning to

as we all did um see Japan down 12%

imagine an entire Market down 12% to see

our futures um down as much as they were

um you know 6 7 8% and when the market

actually opened at 9:30 I looked on the

far side of my screen I had a number of

names down 15 to 20 per. uh it was

sobering and amazingly within 10 minutes

most of them were only only down six or

seven and over the course of the day uh

a lot of them have come back and now at

this point you know midafternoon I've

got again as I look at the screen uh 10

names that are green um and that's with

the Market's still down 800 so I think

what that does is speak to what happens

when people panic um and they react on

the open as opposed to what happens when

they say oh just hang on a minute let's

think about this let's talk this through

maybe some of these stocks shouldn't go

down as much as they've gone down and

maybe maybe we should even be buying a

couple of them so it's yeah it's been

quite a ride so far so what happened I

the Nik obviously started this off down

12% we've all read the news worst day

since Black Monday of

1987 what happened there so I think it's

a a combination of things and the Nik

was almost like you know the Japan index

was almost like the straw that broke the

camels back in other words if you go

back to uh last week we were all talking

about the rotation from AI stocks that

have run a lot to um uh small caps that

uh have still been stuck way under their

um old all-time highs that actually go

back to to like 2022 right um so where's

AI stocks have been running small caps

haven't been then we find out we're

going to get rate Cuts in September well

that's good for small caps so that

rotation was sort of the first thing I

think that happened the second thing um

was that uh fed share Jerome Powell

basically said yeah we are looking at um

September as as a point to start Ray

cuts and then point number three from

last week was when the um jobs report

came out weaker than expected and

everyone thought oh my gosh has the FED

wait waited too long I mean we've been

worried about um uh inflation should we

be worried about recession the answer is

no um GDP is still growing

2.9% and um uh even the fed the Atlanta

fed GDP now forecast which is

forward-looking still says we're growing

2.7 so how can you have a recession

which means the economy shrinking if

right now you're growing 2.7% right so I

I I don't think that some of these um

connecting of the dots actions that have

happened over the past week or so are

necessarily accurate but I do think it

explains uh why people were on edge here

why they sold on Friday and then add to

that the fact that in Japan which is

always the place to go to sort of hide

because the Japanese yen is so stable

since there's no inflation in Japan uh

for Japan to suddenly be off uh 12% I

think people here just said you know

what forget it we're out and that's an

emotional decision emotional decisions

are never correct um but I think that is

why why we're now so much on the open

and by the way starting early this

morning I was getting calls from Dubai s

Francisco Florida from clients saying

Adam should I sell um one client even

said you know if it's down another 5%

we're going to sell everything and I

said no that's when we buy so you know

you have to keep those motions in check

yeah I I was going to say that this

seems it seems to me knowing you a

little bit that this is a buying

opportunity so what you say to your

clients to calm them down is hey look

you know what we're this is GNA be okay

and let's let's put a little more money

to work here I mean celestica uh

celestica is now uh up two bucks on the

day I mean it was down $8 and it's only

a $46 stock right I mean coinbase down

22% are you kidding me um Nvidia was

down I think 177% Nvidia and by the way

I think Nvidia over at some point over

the next four quarters whether it's the

next four quarters or skip a quarter and

then it's the next four quarters

whatever I think they're going to earn

$4 doll and today it was trading at 92

which means uh on a PE basis um uh uh 92

divided by four it means it's trading at

a PE of 22 times same as where the

market was and yet it's Nvidia so you

can buy the market growing 10% or you

can buy Nvidia for the same valuation

and it's doubling its earnings I mean

come on so there there were um a handful

of uh and still are as I look at the

screens uh only a few hours you know

after the that that crazy open uh a lot

of stocks that just got way too cheap

and that's when thoughtful longterm

investors uh step in you don't have to

be a hero you don't have to buy a lot

but you know buy little just you know

buy one and if it works buy another by

you know just and and you sort of get

your into the groove so what do You' say

to the person who's this is their

retirement savings and all of a sudden

they they wake up and they're like oh my

God I have to go find a job yeah well no

fortunately they don't um there have

been and I ran the numbers this morning

just to make sure uh I could say this

with confidence and I can um in the past

five years uh Andrew there have been um

15 Corrections and by corrections I sort

of said 10% or more right there have

been 15 Corrections of 10 10% or more

and the uh average correction uh has

been 15% so 15 uh moves of down 15% on

average and everyone ended up being a

buying opportunity some took longer than

others uh you know to come back but they

were all opportunities to buy and stocks

went on to make new highs after almost

every single one of those so for someone

who says gosh uh I have to go back to

work I can't retire no that's not

accurate um recognize that markets go up

and markets go down it's not a straight

line' be nice if it were a straight line

but you know it's just not and and and

if that volatility makes one of our

viewers or listeners uh nervous then I

would say then reduce your Holdings of

stock and keep a little more cash on

hand or put it into government

securities um but you know volatility is

just part of being a stock investor this

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weon we've seen the stock obviously

Friday was a terrible day for the market

this morning was also not so good

Market's still down 800 plus points yeah

are you seeing somewhat of a bottom you

you are a stock picker you look at the

graphs and charts is this somewhat of

the bottom or you think there's more to

go yeah I think so and tell you why

there are a couple of things I look at

first of all um this morning was the

worst open in four years okay so you

don't see that very often I'll tell you

what else you don't see very often uh

the volatility index the vix also called

The Fear index which is a measure of the

prices being paid to go out and buy out

the money options on the market uh the

vix is used as an input for setting

those options prices so when the vix

spikes that tells you everyone's buying

options because they're scared today was

the third highest reading of the Vicks

in history Andrew you have to go back 40

years there were only two other days

when the vix spiked as high as it did

this morning number one was uh one of

the days in March of 20120 during covid

uh the big Panic day if you remember

that day it was horrific um and another

is a day back in 2008 during the uh

great financial crisis only two days in

history has the vi SP uh Spike more than

it did today so when I hear statistics

like that coupled with the worst worst

open in four years it makes me think

that you know emotions have just gotten

the best of us and then I I see

wonderful names on the side of my

computer you know down 17 18 19 20% I

mean come on so I don't know if you can

hear the sirens but I do I do someone's

someone's not happy about the market

today yeah they're trying to rescue all

of us who are along um but um yeah when

I start things like that and then when I

think about valuations of a company you

know like Nvidia um I think you know

hang on this is time to buy and by the

way one of the other things kind of

bugaboos that I think bothered people

today was the headline Warren Buffett

sells half his Apple position well to be

clear Apple accounted for

60 60 60% of his portfolio I mean I

can't believe Warren Buffalo would be so

irresponsible as to have let Apple

become so big so he sold half it's still

30% of his portfolio which I think is

way too big I don't even have stocks

that are 15% of my portfolio 678 that is

Max Max Max um and they're only a

handful of stocks I've ever owned that

have gotten that big Nvidia is one of

them um so you know that was a headline

that freaked people out oh my gosh Mr

Buffett selling Apple I I I should sell

everything no he was doing what smart

people do a stock gets to your target

you sell half that's what I do when a

stock gets to my target I always sell

half and then I have some money that I

can go deploy into a couple of new names

that I have found yeah I I I did see

that headline it was one of my questions

because he sold off half of his Apple

sitting with 200 over 200 billion in

cash that's ready to go to work some

tells me that Warren Buffett's going to

put that money to work relatively soon

because with a a day like today why not

you might as well make chunks of money

with that money right off the B I mean

it's crazy when I look at some of the

names uh where they were this morning

versus just where they are a few hours

later uh this morning and pardon the

expression this morning was a puke

people just you know they get get me out

and they just throw it out throw it out

and and I'm sure there were um a lot of

Market uh Market orders on the open

which is why so many of those names open

down as far as it you know again I keep

saying it coinbase down 22% on the open

you know that's just basically uh

coinbase falling to a point at which

finally there's some bids so you know

what you throw a bid in down 22 boom you

get hit and all of a sudden the selling

wave is over because you know when

selling is exhaustive by definition it

exhausts itself when it's that extreme

um and the other thing is you know

people like me say we down 22 that's

stupid buy it you call your trade and

say go buy a little you know how much

yeah go go go buy a little go buy you

know half a percent you know half a

percent of capital um and you know

because you always have your shopping

list on the side of your desk and you

know what are the four or five names if

you know right here if they really get

bad you know you know you're ready to go

great go put a little Capital to work

just to comp people's nerves even

further Adam how much is this is this

the algorithms where when a stock starts

going down there's an automatic computer

that says and it's not a person it's not

someone like like you who speaks to

their clients it's someone whose

computer saying uh oh this is down X

percent sell and then the next computer

says sell and all of a sudden that two

or three% is 15 22% like you said it's

they're all algorithms that are running

a lot of this money not a person yeah

well uh pretty telling that the New York

Stock Exchange which for decades

actually a couple centuries was the home

of open outcry right where guys are

shouting across you know buy me this

sell me that right um uh the home of

open outcry and their own study has

concluded that as much as 70 to 75% of

daily volume is electronic and that's

the algorithms and you and I have talked

about this before but for the benefit of

those who are say watching for the first

time or need to hear it again uh what

happens especially during earning season

is that algorithms computers are

programmed to instantly read a press

release on a on a big company name you

know take an Intel or a Microsoft or

something liquid right and look at uh

678 metrics um uh earnings are expected

to be 34 cents revenues are expected to

be 28 billion uh gross margin is

expected to be 58.6 whatever and the

computer Compares what's in the press

release because it can read it

instantaneously to um what the

expectation is and if any one of those

metrics doesn't measure up the computer

instantly shorts the stock and you no

longer need a plus tick so it's not

though the stock has to tick up before

you can short it the stock can fall fall

fall fall and keep shorting shorting

shorting shorting and pushing it down

and and so selling but gets selling and

that's why on some of these earnings

reports like Intel last week you know

the stock was down 29% on earnings it

wasn't a great earnings report but 29%

wow um you know snowflake the quarter

before that Delta Airlines UPS Ford um

they've all struggled with earnings um

because you know one or two metrics

didn't measure up up and that's the

algorithms so people need to recognize

that and uh and not get caught up in it

so the last word Adam you know a day

like today I almost texted my son this

morning said don't even look just don't

even look forget about it don't worry

because everything was red red red until

this afternoon when things started to

turn a little bit what's your advice to

the the investor who's just like seeing

their their portfolio down 10% 8% over

the last few days yeah uh step back and

take the Long View and recognize that

volatility is a part of investing and um

you know back in uh

2022 the NASDAQ was down

35% and I know because I was down more

than that and it was awful and then last

year I had my best year ever and was up

more than that quite a bit more and so

just recognize that there are good years

there are bad years but what you want to

is make money over time and in fact two

days out of three if you just have long

enough to wait uh the market is up so

the the odds are in your favor by a

factor of two if two out of every three

days are up by definition you should be

uh long stocks over the Long Haul uh and

by Long Haul uh that could be a year it

could be five year it could be 10 years

but uh don't grade yourself week to week

or even month to month Take the Long

View I wish I had those odds at the

crafts tables you know I did a an

interview a couple weeks ago and I

looked at the vix and it was at 12 point

something this morning I I was curious

46 and change so yeah you're right it

was 4X what what it uh what it what it

had been so the volatility is definitely

there yeah oh yeah the third highest

spike in history I I would argue that

that defines today as an historic day

and this morning's epic uh selloff on

the open as um as something that we

should all look at think about respect

and realize it's probably more of an

opportunity to buy than to sell you

rarely see moments like this and

generally speaking they tend to mark um

if not a bottom on that day uh a

bottoming process which you know could

mean that uh we're sideways for a couple

of days and then you come up it could be

later this afternoon but whatever I

think today was a was a signal that um

it was climactic and there's a bottoming

process that's going to be associated

with it perfect well I you you've helped

calm my nerves a little bit I hope you

you calmed everyone's nerves and uh keep

up the great work Adam thanks so much

for joining me on on such short notice

oh you bet Andrew my pleasure anytime

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