G7 sanctions and Russia’s pivot to China | Guide to the Global Economy

Summary

This week's Guide to the Global Economy discusses Russia's economic stabilization two years into its invasion of Ukraine, focusing on its trade reorientation from the EU to China. It also covers a weapons swap deal between the U.S. and Ecuador, which aimed to provide old Russian military equipment to Ukraine, and the retaliatory Russian ban on Ecuadorian banana imports. Additionally, it examines concerning trends at the WTO, like the dropping number of formal trade consultations compared to informal complaints, and outlooks for reforming its dispute settlement system.

Takeaways

• 😊 The team focused this week's research on the economic implications of the 2-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• 📉 There was an initial 50%+ drop in G7 exports to Russia after the invasion due to sanctions and companies pulling out.
• 🚛 China has filled the gap, increasing exports to Russia by 43% as Russia reorients away from the EU.
• 🛢 China is exporting industrial goods to Russia to support its war effort by providing raw materials, chemicals, etc.
• 🚗 Chinese car exports to Russia jumped 900% as Western companies pulled out of Russia.
• 💊 The EU still exports some goods to Russia like pharmaceuticals and food that are exempt from sanctions.
• 😳 Russia's increasing reliance on China could leave it vulnerable as the subordinate partner long-term.
• 👨‍💻 President Nabeua of Ecuador proposed exchanging Russian weapons for US military equipment to send to Ukraine.
• 🍌 Russia banned Ecuadorian banana imports in retaliation, which could hurt 20% of Ecuador's banana export market.
• 🤝 There is disagreement at the WTO over reforming the dispute resolution body, so major realignment is unlikely at the upcoming ministerial conference.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the research presented in the transcript?

The main research topic is analyzing Russia's trading relationship and economic implications two years after its invasion of Ukraine.

What happened to Russia's imports right after the invasion of Ukraine?

Russia's imports from G7 countries dropped by over 50% right after the invasion due to sanctions, export controls, and companies pulling out of Russia.

Why have China's exports to Russia increased recently?

China's exports to Russia have increased due to Russia reorienting its economy away from traditional suppliers like the EU and towards China. China also needs new export markets as other countries turn away from Chinese goods.

What goods is the EU still exporting to Russia and why?

The EU is still exporting goods exempt from sanctions like pharmaceuticals, food, and other items that are important for EU producers' livelihoods. There has been pushback on sanctioning these goods further.

What deal did Ecuador try to strike with the US regarding old Russian military equipment?

Ecuador's president proposed exchanging $200 million worth of old Russian military equipment for new US military equipment, with the intention of the US then sending the Russian equipment to Ukraine.

How did Russia retaliate when it found out about the proposed Ecuador-US deal?

Russia banned banana imports from Ecuador's 5 biggest banana companies, which account for 20% of Ecuador's banana sales.

What is significant about the divergence in WTO trade concerns and consultations after 2019?

It shows that while countries are raising many trade concerns, they are not moving to the formal adjudication process for resolving disputes due to issues with the WTO's appeals body.

Why has the WTO's appeals body been unable to function effectively since 2019?

The US has blocked appointments of new appeals judges since 2019 over concerns that the body oversteps its boundaries. This has left the appeals body without the quorum it needs.

Which two WTO members file the most trade consultations and complaints?

The United States and the European Union file the most WTO trade consultations and complaints.

What reforms are being discussed for the WTO appeals body and what is the likelihood of agreement?

Principles to govern appeals reforms have some agreement but specifics around composition and rules still have considerable disagreement, so major realignment is unlikely at the upcoming ministerial conference.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Russia's imports stabilize after initial post-invasion drop

This paragraph discusses how Russia's imports drastically dropped after the invasion of Ukraine due to sanctions and companies pulling out. There was a 50% drop in G7 exports initially. Over time, imports have stabilized again, with a rise in imports from China making up for declines from the EU. Russia has reoriented its economy towards China.

05:01

🚛 EU still exports some goods to Russia out of necessity

The EU still exports about $3 billion of goods to Russia per month that are exempt from sanctions like pharmaceuticals and food. This helps support EU producers and livelihoods. Further banning these remaining EU exports to Russia will be difficult given the economic impact.

10:02

🍌 Ecuador's weapons deal with US prompts Russia to ban banana imports

Ecuador made a deal to exchange old Russian military equipment with the US for new American weapons. Russia perceived this as the weapons going to aid Ukraine's war effort. In retaliation, Russia banned Ecuadorian banana imports, which represent 20% of Ecuador's banana exports.

15:05

🌍 More weapons swaps by US likely as way to arm Ukraine

After backlash, Ecuador reversed its weapons deal with the US, prompting Russia to end its banana import ban. The incident shows the US is finding creative ways to gather Russian-made weapons to send to Ukraine, which finds them easily usable. More such weapons swaps are likely.

20:07

📉 WTO disputes increase but formal resolutions drop off

This paragraph examines WTO trade disputes and dispute resolutions over time. Trade concerns raised at WTO committees have increased sharply since 2019 while formal dispute consultations have dropped. This divergence is due to issues with the WTO's dispute resolution body.

Keywords

💡trade

Trade refers to the exchange of goods and services between countries. It is a key theme in the video, which examines Russia's trade relationships and imports, EU trade with Russia, China-Russia trade, and issues being discussed at upcoming WTO meetings. Examples of trade discussed include Russia's imports from China and the EU, EU food and pharmaceutical exports to Russia, and China-Russia automobile trade.

💡sanctions

Economic sanctions are penalties imposed by one country or bloc on another to achieve political aims. The video analyzes how Western sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine severely disrupted its imports and trade in the short term. It also examines how Russia has stabilized imports by turning to China, though this risks increased dependency.

💡imports

Imports refer to products and goods bought by a country from foreign suppliers. The video examines trends in Russia's imports from major partners like China and the EU after invasion-related sanctions. It tracks Russia's progress in restoring import volumes through alternate suppliers.

💡WTO

The WTO (World Trade Organization) regulates trade relations between nations. The video discusses issues at WTO like the high number of trade concerns vs low dispute consultations, the non-functioning of its appeals body, and upcoming reforms at the 13th WTO ministerial conference.

💡Ukraine invasion

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is a pivotal geopolitical event discussed. The video analyzes its economic impacts like sanctions, import/trade disruption in Russia and realignments with China. It also covers weapon support for Ukraine using Russian equipment.

💡China-Russia relations

The video examines how Russia's relations with and economic dependence on China have strengthened since the Ukraine invasion. With fewer trading partners, Russia has turned to China for imports, exports and absorbing its goods not sold elsewhere.

💡EU exports

The EU is discussed as a major trading partner and export source for Russia, especially for unsanctioned goods like food and medicine. EU exports to Russia dropped post-invasion but later partially recovered.

💡food exports

Food items are highlighted as a key European export to Russia exempt from sanctions. The EU has pushed back against bans on food exports that could economically hurt its producers.

💡automobile trade

The video uses surging Chinese automobile exports to Russia as an example of Russia's import realignment and import substitution away from Western suppliers towards China after the invasion.

💡weapon swaps

The video discusses the example of Ecuador offering old Russia-made weapons to the US in return for new equipment that would be passed on to aid Ukraine, as part of arrangements to arm Ukraine with usable Russian equipment.

Highlights

Russia has restabilized its import economy after sanctions through increasing trade with China

China's exports to Russia jumped 43% from 2022 to 2023 as Russia became one of the only large economies still seeing rapid Chinese trade growth

EU pharmaceutical and food exports to Russia continue despite sanctions due to producer pushback and exemptions

China's need for new export markets as countries turn away from Chinese goods ties it closer to Russia economically

In the long run, Russia's economic reliance on China gives China dominant power in the relationship

Biden offered Ecuador modern US weapons in exchange for $200 million of old Russian military equipment to send to Ukraine

Russia retaliated by banning Ecuadorian banana imports, a major Ecuador export, after the weapons deal

The US is finding creative ways to gather Russian weapons to send to Ukraine by trading with countries that have old Soviet-era equipment

More weapon swap deals between the US and countries with Russian equipment are likely in the future as the US tries to arm Ukraine

WTO trade disputes have stalled since 2019 due to the US blockade on appointing judges to the appeals body

Despite WTO problems, the US and EU remain the most active in raising trade complaints and consultations and the US wins most of its complaints

While some WTO reform principles are agreed, substantial disagreement remains on practical changes to the appeals process

China and the EU are the most frequent targets of US trade complaints at the WTO

There is cautious optimism around potential WTO appeals reform at the upcoming ministerial conference

The US wins almost 90% of WTO cases it brings as a complainant, so has a strong interest in reforming rather than abandoning the appeals system

Transcripts

[Music]

I'm everyone welcome back to guide to

the global economy I'm Sophia Bush and

assistant director with the goo

economics Center I'm filling in for Josh

lipsky this week um and we're going to

talk about the team's research so first

we're going to talk about um Ecuador's

uh economic relationship with Russia

we're also going to talk about the

upcoming WTO ministerial conference but

first i'm going to talk to Neils Graham

about our lead hey Sophia so this week

you know commemorating the two-year

anniversary of Russia's legal invasion

of Ukraine we decided to focus on sort

of economic implications of this and we

wanted to do a real deep dive into

Russia's trading relationship and that's

been the real focus of the lead this

week okay great let's take a

look so really as you can see in the

graph you know what we're really looking

at is sort of how has Russia been able

to restabilize its economy especially

it's import economy following a

combination of sort of G7 sanctions and

sort of a broader Coalition G7 has put

together as well as broader Western

moral outrage along with Russia's

Invasion where a number of companies

have pulled out of Russia even beyond

the sort of legal requirements here and

so let's let's figure out what we're

looking at here so I'm seeing a big drop

off that's after the invasion I'm

assuming that's because of sanctions and

Export controls exactly right so in the

immediate after after the invasion you

know going back two years ago was a real

surprise I think firstly for a lot of

firms you know it was a real sudden sort

of invasion a lot of folks in the

immediate aftermath we saying this is

not going to happen this is a true

buildup so that that's the sort of a

massive drop off you see there where so

many companies so many sort of

organizations trying to figure out what

are we going to do now that this kind of

massive Technic shift has happened in

the geopolitical landscape and what you

really saw is particularly for G7

exports but also broadly globally and

you see this with in the China line as

well exports drastically fell so G7 in

the immediate aftermath exports dropped

some about like 50 a little bit over 50%

and um afterwards it slowly recovered

this was a combination of a few

different factors first of which was

sort of coming to terms with the

invasion a lot of things still weren't

clear you know companies were still

trying to figure out what are my

operations looking like in Russia what

are my legal obligations to the US howle

I personally feel about this on top of

that you had long-term contracts that

now returned into Force you did see some

delivery of goods overall but on top of

that you know long-term wise we do see a

decline in sort of G7 trade really

focused on the EU okay so this is not

just because of firms being directly

impacted by sanctions but them trying to

navigate the um environment okay and

what we're looking at is values not

share exactly so the graph itself shows

a three-month rolling average of imports

um and this is also why it doesn't seem

as Stark the initial drop off if you

look at the pure trade data you know the

the jump is a little bit more but we do

a three-month rolling average to kind of

uh smooth out some of the seasonality in

between the individual data but either

way we have this immediate Stark drop

50% in total Imports and we have a slow

recovery not really from uh kind of your

traditional sources of Russian Imports

namely the EU but rather this real Stark

rise in imports from China in particular

is this just part of China's postco

recovery is it just within the trend

line no I think a few different things

are at play here you know first a lot of

the attention in Washington has been

focused on really the direct support

China has provided the sort of Russian

military effort when I say that you know

I'm saying explicit direct lethal Aid

this is still a red line that China's

yet to cross but this is the sort of

industrial support sending China things

or sending sorry Russia things like

rubber chemicals raw materials iron a

range of different minerals it needs to

keep its war machine war economy running

so this is part of it on top of this you

know it speaks to a broader Trend within

Russia and you can kind of see if we go

back to kind of 2020 and even Beyond

there's been a slow rise in terms of

Chinese uh Imports or Chinese exports to

Russia overall and this speaks to a

longer term partnership Russia and China

been pursuing really since 2016 of tying

the two economies closer and closer

together so it's kind of you have to

take it within that context as well

where you would see a lot of this

increase with or without the invasion

The Invasion did however supercharge it

and really allow this partnership to

Blossom in new ways okay so is it just

these sort of industrial goods and

inputs or or is there anything else

that's going on here no it's it's Prim

industrial goods are a real large

portion of it same with the sort of

mechanical inputs that you'd need to

kind of again run a wartime economy

whether it's building different things

you need for sort of uh military

equipment but on top of this it's just a

complete reorientation of the Russian

economy away from traditional suppliers

like the EU towards China so we're

really seeing a flood of consumer goods

uh from China to Russia and I think cars

are a real great example of this you

know the immediate aftermath of the

invasion a lot of Western car

manufacturers pulled out of their joint

ventures within Russian car or within

Russian car companies on top of that

cars were one of the different Goods

that were really banned especially

luxury cars by the G7 so what you saw is

a complete reorientation towards the

Chinese car market and Chinese Imports

or Chinese exports to Russia of cars

jumped 900% when you compare 2019 to

2023 and this is shared across a range

of other Goods but I think cars are

really illustrative of this yeah I mean

that's a pretty intense data point but

okay if I'm looking at this chart again

so the EU exports Dro but then they rise

again so what is making up that rise

like what is the EU still exporting sure

so there's a range of goods that are

firstly kind of exempt from sanctions so

what you're seeing in terms of the

remaining EU exports is sort of I guess

three trillion or three billion dollars

worth of goods a month coming out of the

EU are combination of things that are

exempt entirely from sanctions and these

are things like Pharmaceuticals so

Pharmaceuticals EU is still sending

around 600 uh million a month or so on

top of that you have a lot of food

stuffs as well the EU is a large

agriculture producer this is one area

for example or China has not really been

able to pick up China is not a big food

exporter so the EU has continued to send

food to Russia overall on top of that

there are range of other Goods just kind

of strange things that aren't sanctioned

things like Spanish perfumes for example

or maybe specific cooking wear Goods

that are built in the baltics for

example that aren't necessarily

sanctioned and that the G7 may move

towards sanctioning but they've gotten a

lot of push back up to now I think the

other real important thing to remember

is that Russia is buying a lot of these

Goods but these goods are the livelihood

of so many different EU sort of

producers

different Mom andp Pop shops and so

forth so there's a real push back right

now on uh the EU side especially on kind

of the uh increasing ban of non sort of

war effort vital Goods overall you know

we have to balance the pain that we are

putting on the Russian economy with the

sort of corresponding pain that

different producers especially in the EU

are feeling and that's the real tight

walk the G 7 has to walk right now and

that's the real reason why since really

in the past you know eight or so months

we haven't really seen substantial new

efforts to uh kind of harm trade between

the G7 and a rush overall but going

forward you know I I I think I want to

really Echo the points that it's going

to be very very hard to further

disintermediate the trade between sort

of G7 and Russia we've already touched

on kind of these key Goods but that

doesn't mean it's not necessar

necessarily possible I think one key

example of this is the recent sanctions

packages that Biden has promised around

the death of uh Russian opposition

leader Alexander naldi and we could see

this further impact trade flows

especially as the war drags onto the

third year there may be more support to

take additional action so we could see

this picture sort of muddling in the

future but as of right now as you can

kind of see in the final few bars of the

graph uh at least Russian's import story

has really stabilized and returned back

to the 2019 levels is there anything we

should be thinking about that maybe

could be risky sure so just as China or

just as Russia is increasingly turning

to China uh for these different Goods in

the short term it's really helping their

war effort in the long run it's really

building a strong dependency uh from

Russia onto China you know this is what

we're seeing when folks talk about the

new vacillation of Russia to China

overall comparing it to the relationship

maybe the Soviet Union and China had

back in the 1960s except the tables are

now flipped with China being the sort of

dominant partner here I I think that's

totally fair you know Russia has few

other places to turn and it's going to

be increasingly tying its economy its

livelihood to the Chinese economy but I

also don't want to diminish the sort of

Chinese side of this as well you know as

China is increasingly turning to Russia

to buy its different Goods it's facing

really strong headwinds around the world

you know Chinese trade from 2022 to 2023

dropped about 5% in dollar terms for

Russia this was a surge of about 43%

Russia is really the only large economy

that China is still seeing rapid trade

growth with and especially as countries

like the EU in particular turn away from

Chinese Goods with their things like

their EV probe they just recently

announced a new Probe on subsidies of

Chinese trains they are going to need

new markets to absorb these different

goods and Russia is a key example of it

so while I don't want to diminish the

sort of relationship that Russia is

incredibly reliant on China China too

needs Russia as a new sort of export

Market where it can buy the goods that

it's no longer being able to sell in its

own domestic Market or abroad in places

like the EU or the United States okay

all right well thanks Neils we'll keep

an eye on this thank

you okay for the next section we're

gonna talk to Alexandre who's one of our

young Global professionals with the GE

economics Center hi Alexandre hi Sophia

okay so you looked into Ecuador this

week um what made you look into it and

what did you find yeah uh thanks s for

this question so when I was starting

brainstorming a bit for this edition of

the uh Guide to the global economy I

wanted to find a story connected to some

major cultural pop uh events happening

during the season and of course I

thought about Carnival so I started

doing a research on Latin America and

then I found this story very interesting

story about Ecuador basically I

discovered this tweet um published by

the new elect newly elected president um

president

naboa um of Ecuador he's only 36 year

old so a very young leader uh that uh

published this video when he uh tells

about this exchange that he was planning

to do with the us and this exchange

involved um weapons and particular L

they wanted to exchange scrub metal

coming from Ecuador to the US in

exchange of uh new modern US made uh

military equipment okay so he's saying

this on social media yeah so what is it

scrap metal is it what what exactly is

actually happen well it's not really

scrap metal actually um he's referring

to Russian uh old military equipment uh

that was uh created during the Soviet

era and its value is about $200 million

so it's not really scrub M scrub metal

and it can actually be very useful for

uh military purposes especially maybe

Ukraine okay so the US doesn't actually

want these old weapons that they're

calling scrap metal but how are they

able to send it to Ukraine how is all of

this actually happening yeah it's

interesting so basically the US made

this deal with NOOA saying that they

will give to Ecuador this uh us made um

equipment in exchange of uh russian-made

weapons the point here is that the US

does not really want to use that Russian

made uh weapons but instead uh um

President Biden wants to direct this uh

equipment to a third country which is

indeed Ukraine um this was uh not super

clear from the original deal um but it

was then discovered that this was the

real intentions behind this agreement

between the two countries okay so but

why does Ukraine want old weapons why

wouldn't we just be able to send them

the new weapons yeah so it's very

convenient for ukrainians using uh old

russian-made weapons for several reasons

um first of all they most of their um

equipment uh the beginning of the war

was made of Russian made weapons

especially coming from the Soviet era um

so they are feeling already comfortable

with using these type of weapons and

also um this type of donation

complements what they already have so

it's quite useful in addition to that um

sending us made weapons will not really

be convenient uh because uh it will also

involve the sending um American soldiers

to explain to ukrainians house to use

this uh uh this equipment and another

aspect to consider is that through these

swaps the US can also engage with other

count countries in this case Ecuador so

it's also a way for the US to um improve

their alliances in other region so it's

a it's a mix of the of factors right

okay that makes

sense but I mean I'm sure Russia

couldn't have been happy about this and

even though they're calling it scrap

metal I'm I'm sure that's you know a

pretty easy thing to see through exactly

they knew that it wasn't about scrub

metal uh it was about serious military

equipment and uh because of that after a

few days after this deal between noo and

and Biden um the Russian foreign

Ministry decided to ban um banana

Imports coming from the five biggest

banana companies in Ecuador and this is

actually a very important decision

because Russia is the uh Main uh

importer of uh Ecuador's banana sales

and uh this would represent a a

significant hit causing potentially 20%

of Market drop so it's uh yeah it's

pretty significant and uh of course this

uh was uh the reason why they uh put

this decision in place was uh not so

clear cut uh they first said that this

was because of a suspected disease found

found in previous shipments but in the

the Ecuador food agency disagree with

this position they said that only 0.3%

of previous shipments was affected by

this pest so probably there are other

reasons behind this Choice okay that's

pretty uh pretty interesting so it seems

like it would be really reasonable to

conclude that this was a retaliatory

economic measure it's it's reasonable

and uh uh we can also further um justify

this conclusion uh by considering the

most recent updates about this story

because just a few days ago we

discovered that actually um Ecuador

reversed his decision its decision to

engage with us in this uh exchange of

weapons

and just after Ecuador made this um

change his position um Russia decided to

end its ban on banana sales so okay so

they made the decision Russia retaliated

and now everything's reversed exactly

yeah okay I mean that's okay so this is

really interesting but is this I mean it

seems kind of like a niche issue is it

just like us Ecuador Russia or are there

any other impacts or Global um

implications apparently it's not that

Niche so from what we can really

understand from this story is that the

US is finding new ways to arm Ukraine um

and to support Ukraine's war efforts uh

the way the US is trying to do that is

by gathering um Russian made weapons for

the reasons we said before and they can

uh find this type of of situation in

other countries not only Ecuador uh we

can have countries rich in Russian made

weapons especially in Latin American so

we can expect um an increase in this

type of swaps and exchanges in that

region but uh on top of that we can also

say that us is already engaging with

other countries in this type of

exchanges like Greece so even outside

this region so um we will probably going

to look at these

exchanges um happening more often in the

future okay so do you have any examples

of like other Latin American countries

that could be involved here yeah one

country for example is uh Brazil uh we

also have Nicaragua so there are many

there are many different countries that

we could mention the main point is um

that the US is looking for countries

rich in this old type of uh of equipment

okay well thanks alisandra that was a

really interesting find and really good

research and I think we should keep our

eye on uh Brazil thank you

sofhia okay for by the Numbers this week

I'm gonna bring in Ryan Murphy program

assistant with the GE economics Center

and the economic statecraft initiative

hey Ryan hi Sophia thank you for having

me of course good to have you here okay

let's look at your

research excellent so what you're

looking at here and the numbers for this

uh addition is six versus 244 and what

that means is there were six

consultations last year in 2023 at the

World Trade Organization or WTO and

there were 244 trade concerns raised and

so you see this massive Divergence

particularly after 2019 between these

two numbers okay so this is pretty

timely since the uh 13th ministerial is

coming up um okay so let's dive into

this a little bit more so on this

leftand chart we have requests for

consultations can you walk us through

what that really means and why we should

care about it absolutely so when talking

about concerns and consultations it

sounds very dry but it really is how a

bit a little just a little bit very Min

in the WTO but what we're talking about

is how countries resolve their trade

disputes with one another uh and so when

we're looking at trade concerns this is

the result of committees that are formed

with a lot of WTO members uh for

specific issue areas and that's where

they bring up uh things regulations

rules laws of other members um that are

concerning to them or that seem like

unfair Trade Practices and the critical

thing to note here is that this is not a

formal arbitration process the formal

arbitration process and this goes back

all the way to the original Gat uh

through the the uguay round um is this

idea of consultations consultations is

the first step uh between two countries

to resolve a potential trade dispute and

so while you see countries that are

really concerned and bringing these

topics to the table uh you're not seeing

them move from the table you're seeing

them quite literally tabled uh before

they get uh to this kind of more formal

adjudication okay and so we're talking

about trade disrupting measures like

tariffs subsidies that sort of thing

right exactly yes okay so these two

graphs are pretty Stark and you

mentioned that 2019 was really a turning

point that's about five years ago now

what was happening around this time

absolutely yeah so what we see uh even

as early as 2017 is the United States

having a blockade on the appointment of

WTO appol body judges and the appet body

is um about seven members uh they

adjudicate uh some of these disput Utes

that come through this consultation

process and it's critical that they have

a quorum the Quorum is three members uh

and in December of 2019 that fell below

Quorum and so this body has not been

functioning effectively since 2019 uh

since the Trump Administration um and

this has continued through the Biden

Administration so uh even as recently as

the G20 media in New Deli um Katherine

Tai us trade representative had talked

about this body needing a fundamental

rethink uh and so there's a real issue

here at least from the perspective of

the United States that's maintaining

this blockade um of this body uh

overstepping its boundaries and

therefore they have not made future

appointments uh to this group okay so I

want to go Beyond the Lines a little bit

so how are these two data points

distributed among the WTO members are

there any particularly active members

Yes actually surprisingly the United

States and the European Union you are uh

the most active members for both

consultations and trade complaints and

one of the really interesting data

points is that for cases where the

United States is a complaintant usually

against China or the European Union they

win almost 90% of their cases and so

while there is this concern um at the

federal level um with the administration

that the appet body the resolution

process is flawed the United States

actually does when it is pursuing trade

complaints for unfair Trade Practices it

actually does win the majority of these

cases so it does seem like it would be

in the US interest to get that

fundamental rethink do you think that's

likely do you think that's going to

happen so we should keep our eyes on the

13th ministerial conference that'll be

at the end of the month uh through the

26th and 29th in Abu Dhabi um one of the

things that's been happening uh is and

this was announced at the last

ministerial uh a review of this

resolution body um reforms to it and

those have been operating on two tracks

there's some agreement on the first

track over the general princip

principles that should govern the body

but to the actual composition of the

appal body the actual uh rules and

regulations that would apply day-to-day

um there's still considerable

disagreement so while you may see some

progress here on this general principles

um I wouldn't expect to see a major

realignment at this 13th ministerial

okay well we'll keep our eye on it

thanks so much Ryan for looking into

this it's very timely well thank you so

much for watching this has been Guide to

the global economy I'm Sophia Bush and

assistant director with the geoeconomics

Center and if you like this video you

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much