No One’s World - Rebuilding the World Order | Samir Saran |@WorldGovSummit|

Summary

The video script discusses the unpredictability of the post-pandemic world order, characterized by geopolitical tensions, crises, and disruptions. Panelists debate the challenges and the role of various global actors, including the US, China, and Europe. They emphasize the need for new world actors to step up and build coalitions for a reformed world order. The conversation also touches on the potential of cities and regions to redefine global governance, moving away from nation-states.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The world is currently facing numerous challenges including post-pandemic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and crises in various sectors such as food and energy.
• 🔮 The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report has consistently identified similar key challenges over the years, indicating a pattern in global concerns but also a struggle in accurately forecasting future issues.
• 🦏 The concept of 'gray rhinos' is introduced, referring to obvious, high-impact, yet neglected threats that are known but not adequately addressed, such as sustainability and climate crises.
• 🤔 The speaker suggests that the world is in an 'era of ignorance' where the unpredictable changes are the ones that will significantly alter the world order, rather than the known issues.
• 📉 A critique of forecasting methods is presented, where past predictions have often been incorrect, with pessimistic and optimistic scenarios not being extreme enough.
• 🇺🇸 The United States is perceived to be less invested in maintaining the current world order, reflecting a shift in their global role and priorities.
• 🇨🇳 China is viewed as seeking to reshape the world order to better serve its interests, indicating a desire for a more significant influence in global governance.
• 🇷🇺 Russia is described as opposing any world order, regardless of its origin, as part of their strategic approach.
• 💪 The importance of emerging regions like South Asia, the Middle East, and parts of the Indo-Pacific is highlighted, suggesting that these areas will need to step up and invest in the future world order.
• 🏛️ The failure of existing institutions to effectively respond to crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, is emphasized, calling for the creation of new institutions better suited for the 21st century.
• 🌏 A potential shift in global power dynamics is discussed, with economic opportunities and political power moving towards East Asia and Europe's Eastern Hemisphere, challenging traditional Western dominance.

Q & A

What are the key challenges mentioned in the World Economic Forum's report at the beginning of the year?

The key challenges for the world mentioned in the report include climate change, geopolitical issues, and food security.

Why does the speaker believe that the world's ability to make forecasts is flawed?

The speaker believes that the world's ability to make forecasts is flawed because the challenges identified in 2019 are still the same, indicating a lack of progress in addressing these issues.

What does the speaker refer to as 'gray rhinos'?

'Gray rhinos' refer to the obvious, large-scale challenges that everyone sees but may not be adequately addressing, such as sustainability and climate crises.

What does the speaker suggest is the era we are living in, and why?

The speaker suggests we are in the 'era of ignorance' because the unpredictable issues that will change the world are not known, and we need to be prepared for the unthinkable rather than trying to predict it.

What are the two mistakes that executives and politicians make according to the speaker?

The two mistakes are extrapolating from past events without learning from them, and not revisiting past scenarios to understand the accuracy of their predictions.

What does Dr. Samir Saran believe are the roles of the United States, China, and Russia in the current world order?

Dr. Samir Saran believes the United States may not invest as much in the current world order, China wants to reshape it, and Russia opposes any world order regardless of who creates it.

What does Dr. Samir Saran suggest as a solution for the world order's current state?

Dr. Samir Saran suggests that regions like South Asia, the Middle East, and other emerging economies need to step up and create coalitions and partnerships to build a new world order.

Why does the speaker believe the 21st century has been an 'ungoverned century'?

The speaker believes the 21st century has been an 'ungoverned century' because the international system has failed over the last two decades, and the world needs new institutions.

What does Professor Arturo Bris believe about Europe's role in the future world order?

Professor Arturo Bris believes that Europe is the answer to the future world order, not the problem, and that Europe will lead the transformation in areas such as sustainability and technology governance.

What does the speaker see as the future of global governance?

The speaker sees the future of global governance moving away from nation-states and towards regions and cities, creating a networked architecture of global governance.

What challenges does the speaker foresee for China and India in their rise to global power?

The speaker foresees challenges such as inefficiency and clumsiness for China due to its size, and for India, the challenges of corruption, unemployment, and managing a large population.