Where are we in the Cycle? w/ Darryl Wang
Summary
TLDRIn episode 21 of the Crypto Market Wizards podcast, Garen returns to discuss the current crypto market cycle, sharing insights on market sentiment, investment strategies, and the impact of political events like Trump's assassination attempt. He also delves into the future of crypto, touching on topics like the potential of Solana, the role of DeFi, and the importance of narrative trading in the evolving landscape.
Takeaways
- 📈 The guest, Daryl, discusses his current market views, noting a shift from a bearish stance to a more aggressive position following recent events, such as the Trump assassination attempt, which he believes has bullish implications for the market.
- 🐻 Daryl explains the different levels of market positioning, ranging from 'Omega bearish' to 'aggressive', and how Tangent has been operating within these bands, adjusting their net beta based on market conditions.
- 🔄 Daryl highlights the challenges of the last three months in the crypto market, describing it as the most difficult period since he started in crypto, due to the market's volatility and the unexpected downturn.
- 💰 He discusses the importance of not being fully invested in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), suggesting that to outperform the market, one needs to take bets on altcoins that are not part of the consensus.
- 🌐 Daryl shares his views on Solana (SOL), stating that it is currently their main beta position and that they hold no BTC or ETH, indicating a strategic shift in their portfolio composition.
- 🏦 The conversation touches on the potential impact of a BlackRock ETF on the market, with Daryl suggesting that it might not deliver the expected supernormal performance due to increased competition and market saturation.
- 💡 Daryl emphasizes the importance of narrative trading in crypto, arguing that traditional value investing frameworks do not apply as effectively in the crypto space, where narratives and market sentiment play a significant role.
- 🚀 Daryl expresses his long-term aspirations beyond crypto, including contributing to humanity's progression towards becoming an interstellar species and his personal goal to go to space.
- 🤔 The discussion includes advice for new crypto participants, suggesting that they focus on preserving capital, understanding market cycles, and being prepared for the challenges of a brutal PVP (Player vs. Player) environment.
- 🌐 Daryl shares his thoughts on the current state of crypto Twitter, noting its decline in providing valuable alpha and the importance of building an online presence and social capital in the crypto community.
Q & A
What is the current stance of Tangent on the crypto market?
-Tangent has been operating within bands one and two, which indicates a very bearish to cautiously defensive stance. Their net beta has never been more than 50% long at any point in time, and they have been focusing on tight validations on a low time frame trading setup.
How has the market been performing in the last three months according to the podcast?
-The last three months of the market have been the most challenging since the start of crypto, with significant drawdowns and volatility. The market has seen wild swings, including a double bottom formation and a quick reclamation of range on the back of a political event.
What was the impact of the Trump event on Tangent's market position?
-The Trump event was a pivot for Tangent. They were 15% long going into Sunday but after the event, they closed their shorts and went long, operating within the most aggressive band again, which is the 75 to 120% range.
What is Tangent's current long position in the crypto market?
-Tangent is currently about 78% long, with a significant portion of their positions in Solana (SOL) and other altcoins. They do not hold any Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) at the moment.
What is the significance of the ETF in the context of the crypto market?
-The ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is seen as a potential outflow for traditional capital to invest in crypto, specifically Ethereum. However, expectations for the ETF are not overly high, and it might not deliver the supernormal performance that some investors anticipate.
What is the current sentiment on DeFi in the crypto market?
-DeFi is currently seen as undervalued by some, but the general sentiment is that it may not be the best bet for E beta. The market is not necessarily looking for undervalued assets but rather narratives that can drive prices up.
How does Tangent view the potential of Solana in the current market?
-Tangent views Solana as a potential proxy coin for speculating on Republican wins in the US elections. If Republicans win, the probability of the ETF goes up, which could positively impact Solana's price.
What are the main factors influencing Tangent's market positioning?
-Tangent's market positioning is influenced by two main factors: a Republican win in the US elections and easing liquidity conditions. These factors help them determine whether to be conservative, optimistic, defensive, or aggressive in their market approach.
What is the current cycle phase of the crypto market according to the podcast?
-The crypto market cycle is currently seen as tricky, with some arguing that it is in the mid-cycle phase. The dispersion between altcoins and Bitcoin suggests that the market is still in a PVP (Player vs. Player) environment, with potential for a shift to PVE (Player vs. Environment) when conditions change.
What advice does the podcast offer for new crypto investors?
-New crypto investors are advised to focus on gaining experience in the market, understanding the cycles, and balancing on-chain and centralized exchange trading. They should also be prepared to navigate the challenges of a PVP environment until the market shifts to a PVE environment.
Outlines
📈 Crypto Market Wizards Podcast Recap
In this episode of the Crypto Market Wizards podcast, host TIY welcomes back Wigaren for the third time. They discuss the recent market events, including the significant drop in altcoin bags by 50%. The conversation delves into market strategies, with Wigaren sharing insights on the current bearish market view and how his firm, Tangent, has been positioning their investments. The discussion covers different levels of risk exposure, from Omega bearish to aggressive, and how these strategies have been adjusted in response to market movements. Wigaren also touches on the impact of political events, such as Trump's shooting incident, on the crypto market.
📉 Market Positioning and Strategy Adjustments
The conversation continues with a detailed discussion on market positioning, focusing on the aggressive band of 75 to 120% long positions. Wigaren explains that Tangent is currently about 78% long, with a focus on major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but also highlights their significant positions in Solana. The discussion explores the nuances of portfolio variance and the importance of denominating in the right assets. Wigaren also shares his thoughts on the upcoming ETF and its potential impact on market dynamics, emphasizing the need for non-consensus bets for superior performance.
🔍 Analyzing the Market Cycle and Narrative Trading
Wigaren and TIY delve into the complexities of the current market cycle, discussing the challenges of navigating through different market phases. They explore the concept of narrative trading, where market movements are driven by stories and associations rather than fundamental value. The conversation touches on the potential for social finance and AI to become dominant narratives in the future. Wigaren also shares his views on the importance of recognizing and adapting to the prevailing market conditions, whether they are PVP (player versus player) or PVE (player versus environment).
🚀 The Impact of Political Events on Crypto Markets
The discussion highlights the significant influence of political events on the crypto market, particularly the attempted assassination of Trump and its impact on market sentiment. Wigaren explains how such events can lead to sudden shifts in market positioning and the importance of being agile in response to these changes. The conversation also touches on the potential for a Republican win in the upcoming elections and its implications for the market, with a focus on how these events can create new investment opportunities.
🤔 Navigating the Market: Strategies and Predictions
Wigaren shares his insights on the current state of the crypto market, discussing the challenges of predicting market movements and the importance of being prepared for various scenarios. He outlines the factors that he believes will influence the market, including the outcome of the US elections and changes in liquidity conditions. The conversation also covers the potential for a breakout above $74k and the conditions that would need to be met for such a move to occur. Wigaren emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to investing, combining both on-chain and centralized exchange strategies.
💡 The Role of OTC Markets in Crypto Trading
The conversation turns to the role of over-the-counter (OTC) markets in crypto trading, with Wigaren sharing his views on the implications of OTC trades for market dynamics. He discusses the potential impact of large OTC trades on market sentiment and the importance of understanding the motivations behind these trades. Wigaren also shares his personal approach to trading, emphasizing the importance of avoiding OTC trades for risk management and ethical reasons.
🌐 The Future of Crypto: Interstellar Ambitions
Wigaren reveals his long-term goals and aspirations, which extend beyond the crypto market to include contributing to humanity's progress towards becoming an interstellar species. He shares his dream of going to space and his desire to support endeavors that accelerate humanity's exploration of the cosmos. The conversation also touches on the importance of maintaining one's morals and ethics in the pursuit of wealth and success in the crypto industry.
💼 Building a Legacy in Crypto: Ethics and Relationships
The discussion concludes with a reflection on the importance of building a legacy in the crypto industry, with a focus on maintaining strong personal relationships and adhering to ethical standards. Wigaren shares his belief in the value of long-term relationships and the role they play in achieving success in the crypto market. He also emphasizes the importance of not losing oneself in the pursuit of wealth, highlighting the need for integrity and authenticity in all endeavors.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Crypto Market Wizards
💡Bearish
💡Beta
💡Altcoin
💡Portfolio
💡Tangent
💡DeFi
💡ETF
💡Liquidity
💡Social Capital
💡Leverage
💡Airdrop
💡OTC Markets
Highlights
Garen from Tangent returns for the third time to discuss crypto market views and strategies.
Market sentiment was bearish over the last six weeks, with Tangent taking a cautious approach to risk.
Tangent's net beta was never more than 50% long, indicating a very bearish to cautiously defensive stance.
The last three months have been the most challenging in the crypto market since the last cycle.
Tangent's positions were tightly validated on a low time frame trading setup to minimize losses.
The Trump event was a pivotal moment that led Tangent to become more aggressive in their positions.
Tangent is now operating within the most aggressive band, being 75 to 120% long.
Major positions are primarily in Solana (SOL), indicating a strategic focus on this cryptocurrency.
Tangent does not hold Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) currently, showing a shift in investment strategy.
The potential for a Republican win in the US elections is seen as bullish for markets and crypto.
Tangent's fund is denominating in Solana, viewing it as a better bet than Ethereum for the current cycle.
The thesis for Solana has evolved, now including its potential as a proxy coin for speculating on Republican election wins.
Defi is not seen as the best proxy for Ethereum beta, with Tangent taking a cautious approach to Defi investments.
Narrative trading is favored over value investing in the crypto space, focusing on market narratives rather than undervalued assets.
Tangent is looking into social finance (SoFi) and AI as potential areas of interest for the next market cycle.
The market is currently in a PVP (Player vs. Player) environment, with a lack of retail participation.
Tangent's long-term thesis includes a Republican win in the US elections and easing liquidity conditions as key factors for a market breakout.
Crypto Twitter is seen as having deteriorated over the cycle, with a focus on price action and meme coins rather than significant tech improvements.
Advice for new crypto participants includes focusing on gaining experience and building an online presence for social capital.
Long-term goals for Tangent include building the best prop fund in crypto and contributing to humanity's progression towards becoming an interstellar species.
Transcripts
what's up everyone TIY here welcome to
episode 21 of the crypto Market Wizards
podcast today I have here with me wi
Garen for the third time welcome back
how are you doing
today it's good it's been a long day
it's been a very eventful day after
yesterday's Monumental event but that be
here so last time you were on this show
Daryl uh you know you said you know what
this is your second cycle you don't want
to be mid curve right you need to
believe in something um and I was like
you know what Daryl's right I do need to
believe in my bags and ever since this
video my bags my altcoin bags they're
down 50% so like what happened darl and
now your co-founder uh you know Jason
Choy for tangent now he's posting these
bear takes like welcome to bear toown
like what is tangents market views at
this current point and where where do
you think we are in the cycle so yeah so
you know depends on the how F uh Pang
has uh positions taken on multiple
different time phrases and sometimes
they may not concur with what we
necessarily say public
um the General High Time view over the
last call it 6 weeks uh was that we were
pretty bearish where markets were going
um we were de risk or had the risk the
majority of our current positions I
think um during the majority of the draw
down our Sense
on how we positioned uh is split between
four different re
uh the first one is Omega bearish uh
this basically means that you are
anywhere between minus 10% to 25% more
this is basically when you think it's
over uh and you're really only hold into
your highest conviction POS positions or
sometimes you may even be next short we
try not go more than minus 10% which
which means 10% Direction on the entire
portfolio uh the pores of conserva
gr um is a net net beta between 25 to
50% a cautiously optimistic approach is
beta between 50 to
75% and a aggressive approach is
anything between 75 to call
it% so uh for the part of the last two
months uh tangent was mainly operating
within bands one and two which was you
know very bearish to cautiously
defensive so our net beta is never we
were never more than I I would say 50%
long at any point in time but uh the
positions that we had long were running
very tight in validations on a low time
frame trading setup and so when you know
certain levels were lost we could be inv
validated and we didn't lose too much on
them um I would say that the last three
months of the market have been probably
the most challenging uh it has been over
the last cycle um it's probably the most
challenging has been since I started
crypto uh given where I guess markets
topped uh given where expectations were
and you know I guess how it has bottomed
that 54k uh given where we are today
right you you basically Edge everyone uh
thinking that you've just broken past L
side all their highs thinking that 100K
is on the table uh even we were buying
CLS at 74k which highight looks
absolutely um but uh and then
breaking the four month range below 56k
only the bottom 5% lower than that
forming a double bottom in a ban of G
and then quickly reclaiming range on the
back of a 30-year political event only
in crypto do you have such wild swings
sh
one yeah and I guess you're referring to
you know just Trump getting shot right
and corre yeah and I guess after that
event I think his odds of winning just
shot up um I think 10 to 20% I think
some of his name coins went up as well
and I think Trump is vocally proc crypto
so I guess you know we don't have to get
into Political argument but um
objectively I guess Trump winning is
bullish markets bullish crypto is that
how you're doing it yes so actually um
the Trump event was the pivot for me
because we we were actually uh 15% long
um going into Sunday uh it was my time
Sunday morning uh we had a couple all
Longs open but we were hedging it with a
couple of BDC shorts at
59k uh I woke up for some reason early
in the morning on Sunday saw my feet saw
that thing instantly close my shots and
then basically just land long um because
multiple multiple different assets uh
now you know we are operating within the
most aggressive uh band again which is
the 75 to 120% uh range uh we're now
about 78% long uh not you know full full
long but you know we'll probably buy
retest of 60k with the rest of our car
nice and when you say you're you know
let's say 80% long is it mostly in the
majors uh like ahead of the e e ETF or
are you also just sprinkling in some I
guess beta plays uh col like all coin
like how how do you position long right
like how do you define aggressive is it
just Majors or just you just you know
slam the alt as well so when you see
major are referring to BBC e let's say
BTC e and soul I think Soul has made it
uh as like the top three yeah so I think
primarily uh we were putting on pretty
lot Soul positions um and uh we hold no
BTC and E right now interesting
interesting so so I think I'll have to
make an extra note under Nuance of data
as well uh because I think what you own
conses would you know dramatically
affect the variance of your portfolio as
well so for example I think being 50%
long o meaning not be C for so is
probably more volatile than if you were
to be 100% on BDC So within that range
uh when I say that we were agressively
low um I would say that if you're 100%
long BDC you're definitely low you're
definitely pretty aggressively long but
you're not really pushing it that much
right you can really be 100% long
absolute coin just like like just
wait for those fast then and B us so uh
right now we're about 80% long uh say
the Marg position we have a salana uh
and then a Smacker of all the alls that
we can discuss yeah and for the audience
we're recording this of at July 15th um
so obviously you know depending on when
you're watching this these numbers might
change and I think
last time we had you on uh you said that
you're going to denominate in salana
this cycle or at least your fund your
liquid fund um you still view this to be
the case um we have the ETF coming it
doesn't make sense to be you know
allocated to eat as well or do you think
that if eat goes up the Sal going to go
up even more so might as well just long
the fastest
horse yeah so we've given a lot of
thought about this um I still think
that in order to achieve our performance
you're probably going to need to take
bets on andet that are not consensus LS
and I think with the EV tier um it
probably will give you comfortable
returns uh as long as fls don't
disappoint and I think right now they
are about barely price in terms of
expectations but I don't think you're
really going to be outperforming the
market versing the market if you're
denominated in E BDC for example
uh and and it's quite funny because the
majority of H fans out there I don't
they have alform BDC so maybe that may
actually betic you uh but as always we
try and attend up on BDC and um I just
don't think you're going to be able to
do that with BDC e as the primary beta
in your portfolio and who still within
uh that soul is the
main B position that we will have for a
varying am the reasons I think for now
the thesis has changed quite a bit
slightly the thes are originally shared
is the y s is going to be the best
playable speakers number one it was the
easiest you actually use it was the
cheapest it was the fastest uh at the
same time it also had a blossoming mean
ecosystem around it right this was
before your whiffs your bong uh your lck
and popcats were really consens logs and
I think right now they pretty good as
logs uh that thesis is I think quite
well understood by the market now I see
a number of inor reactions saying if you
want to put on lws you can put it on
salana I am LS for a slightly different
reason now um I think I'm not sure
whether you saw a couple weeks ago there
was this Lana UTF that was
F and uh I think while the probability
of it being
accepted is CL to zero day that may not
be the case if
Republicans are in
control of American regulatory
forces
and because of how the US election up I
think salana is actually going to be the
proxy coin that people may Ben me
gravitate towards uh if they're trying
to speculate on Republicans uh winning
the election simply because if they win
the probability of the EF goes up
tremendously and I don't think Solana is
anywhere close to properly priced for a
black rock Sala obviously we still quite
some ways away from that happened but I
think leading up to the elections this
sentiment is something that I think it's
pretty
on and nobody's really talking about it
yet so this is one of the main reasons
why we're lost all uh but I think moving
into the elections and maybe poost the
elections will reevaluate that view uh
but I think as long from now till
November it's probably going to be the
best bement for me that the nominator
got it that's very interesting and I
think that logic makes a lot of sense um
and I guess going back to um the first
interview we did um at least for theer
wizards we talked about how you know eat
is cucked eat is cooked uh when does eat
ever get uncooked you know like does
does the ETF help right is the ETF the
answer to all the eat holders like
prayers or do you just think that
holding eeve is just going to be one of
those things where yeah you're G to make
money but you know it's not going to be
like crazy right uh I guess what's your
view on E uh with the ETF
I guess you have to realize that he
started as an Ico at like 10 cents so
one can make the argument that the
superior out performance for e in its
existence is past this right it now
become embraced as a very comfortable
beta asset by most and whenever you have
by the majority of Market of this you're
probably not going to have super normal
performance by that asset I think the
last cycle was the proper cycle in which
the E ecosystem was recognized as being
significantly different from Bitcoin
could offer significantly different
value positions in terms of smart
contracts and that re rating was I think
e going from you march 202 of $60 to a
higher
4,000 this
cycle you have
significantly more
competitors which offer very similar us
pce or perhaps Superior r pce as well
for that reason I think without the e it
is unlikely that
e delivers that kind of super normal
performance relative to the rest of the
market it can still go on a r but I
think if it does other access will
better uh but with the E ETF I think
it's an out
for traditional Capital to stop buying
it I typically trying to refrain from
predicting what the flows is to look
like mainly
because after doing quite a bit of work
there are too many
conflicting pieces of evidence such that
we don't have a proper conclusion com to
my head I would say that the frows for
the ETF will probably be a
disappointment to most but it's always
relative the expectations and right now
I think expectations for the EF are not
anywhere near overly so it could be
meeting current expectations it could
even be underpricing them a little bit
and then least can have a move to B
again and maybe you know even retest
Highs but in that in that situation I
would think You' been much better off
only all because that General we uptick
off uh I guess that Baseline uh just
makes everything go so much higher
anyway got it and I guess you know on
Twitter there's always disc this
discussion around eat beta like what is
eat beta um people tried longing L2
tokens but it just keeps going down um
and you mentioned salana and I think
that makes sense but what are your
thoughts on defi um of course I think
when we connected three or four years
ago um it's because you were
specializing in defi I was specializing
in Defi and you know it was new and
exciting um and unfortunately it's 2024
and you know
there has been some improvements but
nothing too groundbreaking um you
mentioned a lot of things around you
know like betting against consensus
expectations versus reality it seems
like sentiment for diva is in the
absolute gutters um but you know like
some of these coins like a is like 1.5
billion market cap maker sub three
billion can't you make a case that defi
can finally be eat beta or do you think
that there's too much hopium and copium
from my side um but like what are your
general thoughts on defi
I think there two aspects there that
need to be dissected I think the first
one is uh the concept of def5 doing e
beta I don't actually think def5 is the
best boxy for E beta because beta
basically means 11 b or something else
uh the thesis points that you're raising
about how D5 could be a law those are
these points independent of right and so
they shouldn't be classified as you you
shouldn't be using these these argument
to say this is a good be it can be a
good law as an independent thesis but
not it's really got nothing to do with
East beta I think right now um East beta
is this concept is very freaking uh the
market you know hazly decides what is e
beta today and what's E better tomorrow
and they're not necessarily the same
thing I think trying to play the East
beta game is of WS Aon uh
there's not that much money to be made
in my opinion and the risk of being
wrong means you're just left on the SEL
we too often uh so but I mean it like
there are some I guess consensus inators
uh you happy for example which is the me
e beta uh you have Pendle which is the
def5 E beta uh you have your OG Optimus
and arbitrum which your L2 e bet really
depends on the flavor of the of the day
or of the week but the market decide
what pump
um but I once again go back to the
thesis
of when there are too many
betas none of them will deliver you
Alpha so that is my base case uh on the
second part about defi getting
potentially at levels where you know it
may be attractive again the people
arguing for defi law because defi is
undervalued
are probably not longing it for the
right reason like we do not long things
in crypto because they're under
value maybe in 10 years time when this
Bas is completely on a steady state
basis maybe that thesis works when
capital is much more accustomed to
traditional markets and crypto mes been
locked that with existing equities that
does not happen today which means that I
will not use equity Frameworks to try
and value crypto tokens I still believe
that narrative trading is and will
continue to be the
best uh form of our performance uh on
mods so I don't toy like thesises that
say long are because of XYZ reason which
makes it under value or the cash flows
are too attractive like if you are
longing Ary for the cash shows my friend
there are a huge array of traditional
bands so you can go and investigate so
you can go long that is not the reason
why get uh I will change that thesis uh
if I see something material that happens
in def5 I haven't seen it yet uh I do
admit that with this lens I missed pendo
from this uh cyclos run it had a
fantastic run uh and I was just I didn't
I overlooked the the pendal thesis and
by myself working and it was too late uh
so I with this sort of approach you're
definitely going to miss some things uh
but in general it served me pretty well
to not fall into the value traps that is
defi maybe like I would give you one
example of something I think is
interesting today and I you know a
number of people are already capturing
on to it it is Mak getting that black
rock
Association uh with uh it's I believe
black Ro's investing in its new funnel
some variation yeah M maker is going to
do you know collect a billion dollars
from all these you know Ono Black Rock
um correct so so m is getting a bit now
not because people realize that the cash
draws from it operating that is all the
Stu undervalue people are buying it
because the Black Rock Association and
why are they doing that because they've
seen Ono run a ridiculous amount on that
same FES so prices are moving because of
Association specific things that the
market has learned will drive prices out
you got it right so to me that's thetive
tra you're making maker ative tra and
that work that's fine um but not do on
value interesting so it seems like you
know you favor narrative trading over
getting into these value traps and I
guess you know value investors even the
stock market has gotten destroyed uh
relatively growth investing um and
there's always this element of pattern
recognition um oh like Bon went up when
Sola went up there for when e goes up
Pepe goes up with goes up or whatever uh
what are your thoughts on the next
narrative because me coins obviously has
been crazy the past year um recently
they've kind of you know felt came back
to Earth um do you think they're going
to come back like stronger than ever or
do you think that a new narrative going
to form what are your thoughts on like
the next
narratives I think as long as you're not
see proper technological innovation in
cryp mean Parts they home and I really
still have not seen anything that
excites me the
most interesting thing that excit me
this cycle is like
parter which is why I
think there will be some form of social
fireing that comes out I don't know when
it's going to come out and we've seen
small instances of it already um but a
narrative
that I probably look
into play when it it makes itself not is
the social fin uh I think it a fresh
game um it the least understood by
people it's very difficult to bought I
believe um
so that is something that offers also
the most interesting dream of this side
um it's obviously that and the Evergreen
one for this sidey is also AI which I'm
surprised it's not c a bit yet yeah I'm
surprised too it's like bit like bit
tensor down a lot like all these AI
coins are just down a lot uh I mean I
think everyone in crypto understands
that these AI coins don't really do
anything but people were bidding it
because it's oh it's like an AI coin and
videoid is going up so this will also go
up but I guess that hasn't happened I
guess do you think that's just because
we're still relatively in PvP conditions
where maybe if retail was coming back
you know if it was relatively PVE then
all these coins would just like you know
go up in tandem um but there's been a
significant dispersion in asset
performance in crypto
um and do you think that's just because
there's not enough money in crypto to
support all these all these so there's
so many tokens right um the one you
think PVE comes back and how do you
navigate like PVP meta like where we are
now yeah I mean we we've been navigating
it I mean everyone has been navigating
it uh for the last basically four month
right um I think you've been in the most
brutal PVP environment right now uh
stable coin I think I think I believe
it's beginning to start going up again
uh which is a very good sign that the
PVE is lightening um but I think we're
more so than is still a PVP we will
continue to be here until we break po
out I think 7 4K if that breaks then you
really get I think tve enironment
because number one the capital do need
to push it up um it's a lot more than
what we have today uh and I think that
four month break oh
or how however long it Tak to break out
that consolidation view within this
range uh will have conditioned so many
traders to be in a PVP mindset that when
PVE comes in they won't recognize it and
that's how we get explosive moved on so
uh I believe that can only happen uh
well we had a longterm thesis for what
do we need to see before we have
credible reasons to believe 74k can
break up and there were two main things
that were highlighted the first one is a
republican wig in the US elections uh
which is one of the reasons why we flip
so drastically uh on the assassination
attemp yesterday um I think now it's all
but certain that Trump is going to win
and I think the markets are beginning to
reprice that uh in today uh there will
definitely be some volatility between
now and then um but I think more or less
the outcome is reasonable you you are
reasonable so needed outcomes already uh
in front of us the second point is on
easing liquidity commisions and this is
up to all de friends the power I do
think you're going to need General
Global easing liquidity and uh
conditions in order for crypto to
experience the kind of run in
2021 uh we I believe in two weeks time
we will have the
first FC meeting where I cut this
potentially on the demo and we're
expecting a couple more Cuts uh shortly
after
so this cisti is not perfect but I think
it's needed in order to break
74k I don't know when it's going to
happen May it could come 3 months after
Cuts have happened it could
come 3 days after Cuts have happened uh
I have no Clarity there but I think
these are the two main things I'm
looking at to determine how to position
basically which should band I in my
position I sort of conserva to be
optimistic defensive very bearish or
aggressive it's really up to these two
factors and so far we've got one one of
them down uh a month ago we had n them
right so we were waiting until we saw
further confirmation these to fce before
we decided to put on risk again got it
so where do you think we are in the
cycle uh it feels like we're somewhere
midcycle
um and I guess to our audience you know
we're all trying to make it um if
someone you know trying to run it up
right now like what do you think is like
the best way um to I guess you know get
to someone's whatever financial
goals oh that's okay that's very let's
go for the first part of the question
where we are in B uh this is very very
tricky um we at in kind we typically
split the CYO into four quadrants q1
q24 uh q1 is basically
the bottom of you know everybody under
positioned all P this lost uh and then
you slowly start start grinding up on a
wall wor Q2 is when the acceleration of
the open coming to full swe uh people
begin to realize Monumental levels of
wealth
uh and you start getting the top signals
to come up as you approach2 Q3 is when
the top signals are in full force prices
we getting
consolidating you feel like you things
should keep going on but prices are
really not moving that much and Q4 is
when basically you start losing ranges
Marco structure starts breaking down uh
and doens R levels and then never that
and you start that's so one by one
people get killed what yeah um this
cycle has been really tricky because we
seems like we saw antire cycle meaning
each of those quadrants already happen
uh but for different path of the market
right for alts for example you can make
the argument that you saw all levels of
q1 Q2 Q3 and Q4 happened already the
some of that and you can even make the
argument where the next for results um
for Bitcoin it seems like we are like
maybe three maybe Q true but we don't
really know uh because if this is the
car then if let's say we are unable to
break s 4K then this is still this is
probably in Q3 where probably just
supposed to sell everything um it's so
it's the trickiest because of the dispos
between Al and
BDC I tend to think with the amount of
with the OS syntic flows of the
ETF um Bitcoin is sort of distancing
itself
away from conventional crypto cycle I
think that too many latent biders that
will step into defend prices uh and also
uh one thing you know Credit in our
industry has really not come back in any
form since 2021 you don't see any lever
entities really pushing credit limits uh
both seen and unseen I would say that
like if you really want to look at
credit limit the only anything
that like aena is not even like a credit
risk it's more so like an in liquidity
background risk but there's nothing
really you know borrowing money or like
there's no uh uncollected LS out there
you know waiting togethera I think all
your on loans as well and if you look at
how many loans have taken Ona I don't
think they are anywhere near levels
where you
at
so Bitcoin I think and
lightly become or start creating like
more conventional assets especially with
the ETF I think alts will still have its
own uh its own sort of Cycles um and
alts will basically function
as derivatives all Bitcoin meaning if
Bitcoin begins to go up alss will start
double charging up Bitcoin bitcoin's
momentum begins to uh begins to SP B
will start coming down Bitcoin
starts even just turning down slightly
BS are basically going to start cing and
that's what we saw um in the last four
months so it's very challenging uh we're
still forming our own Frameworks how to
think about this but it's no longer the
truth that you know you can have simple
systems like Capital GES goes into BC
then it goes into e then it goes into
all then it goes the sh coin and it goes
back to BDC like I don't think that that
was like in 2017 2018 maybe in 2020 for
it that's
longer uh to your second Point what to
do if you're joining cpto today I'm like
oh my God why would you cry even it's so
hard it's so hard it's so hard like I I
was telling I was telling Jason if I saw
crypto today from the outside there's no
way I Joy like it's so much more
difficult than just aing equities like
you can just be aing QQQ and you
probably be out performing my 80% of
people in yeah so but you really wanted
to try um I would
say two things uh number one Goan that's
I've always said gain because that's
where the best reflective assets are and
the best
upsite but onchain does not last
wherever if you notice you have very
specific onchain season where there with
um happens and then you will have DOS of
just basically ghost TOS so I think you
need to also be able to trade uh the
centralized exchange PS and so I think a
balance of running long short trades on
centralized exchanges as well as on
chain ability is prefer in order to make
it the cycle
but obv be honest with
you unless you
are running very sophisticated
strategies on Meme coins
or yeah basically that or you use a
T of
liary I just I just don't see how you
were to make like 508 in this
Mar I don't see anyone do it yeah I
would say that this is the time that
you're still basically supposed to
preserve your Capital try and slowly
grow it then when you get that eat and
you go e the condition then you really
go to tow I don't think we' back that
yet yeah like even for me like I I run a
fairly not not really but some
sophisticated air drop farming strategy
um and paid pretty well at the beginning
of the year maybe late last year but
like nowadays you know we Farm these
things to dump them everyone's doing
that and then when the token comes out
it just goes down like 80% yeah like
even blast like I was very surprised to
see it below like two billion um I guess
in hindsight it kind of makes sense um
but I guess like my question to you is
what do you think about I guess this air
draw farming like VC you know low flow
High FDB beta or low flow High FDB meta
um and do like are these alts just a
tool for you to like just get in and out
right just like make a few bucks on a
trade get out don't want to touch them
don't want to hold them um it seems like
a lot of people are coming this type of
mentality some form of jeness with
crypto this cycle um yeah like what are
your thoughts on yeah I I think there's
generally consensus and I I I'm gr to
disagree with it um for a couple of
reasons uh I
think uh but think a St back away with
it uh I I don't really commend on air
drop farming because I've never already
done it uh I don't know the strategies I
think
it's it was the unsolved game two years
ago today it's pretty much Dan all in
general when you're playing soft games
you don't you win a lot of money uh that
that's in though I will say that for
speculators in today cycle think that
the three different types of alts that I
think people have begun to come back to
again and again uh the first type are
new Point new points meaning just this
the fresh floats you know 5% floats 10%
floats uh maybe you got the added off a
lot uh but other than that for the next
3 to six months you have to be meaning
whatever F that is there not going to
change these coins are ones where you
can bu new narrative where the Cs are F
meaning there are no resistances no
support slow ranges uh and basically
you're free uh to work with them in part
your
imagination uh as you move on and you
start nearing the unlock this I think
this is where things get very dangerous
because a lot of people begin to hit
their unlocks uh and if done
incorrectly uh you will see a number of
different short setups or short squeezes
that made punish hes and then one
example this is something like Celestia
right now where even though unlock it's
coming in few months time 3 months is an
eternity in cryor right if you're Hing
your unlock as a function of you say oh
okay I just to wait three more months
and then I'll be able to you that my
gone uh if that becomes too consensus
you may have to content with a squeeze
in your hands and I think these squeezes
we haven't really seen anything really
powerful yet um I think I'm not sure
whether you recall last I bu B stay
called the wi squeeze on Wi-Fi it wasn't
exactly the same thing
uh but it shows you the power of short
squeezes that we haven't really seen
this we have that in the making for some
of these alts in the future um and then
once you start hitting that right I call
this the death of speculation you have
this value where it's a no touch and you
basically don't touch it you're not
allowed to touch it if you want the make
money um until the float is at least if
50% of the total FTD so basically once
you hit the cliff you have like 10% of
10% of float and then your Sloat start
going out maybe on the 8 go to 15% and
then as time unlocks your team investors
and every wants to unlock
on you dump on
you uh your foot goes up and then charts
like arbitrum she charts like Li CHS
like dydx and this is the no Zone
because you just get eight if you TR
uh until until I think it gets to about
50% float uh that's when I think the
majority of The Dumping is done you
still have to condem some of it but rela
to to the flo it's okay uh and then you
move on to the other end right that the
all the coins where the float is close
to 100%
And the majority of these coins are debt
coins they're GH coin that you can St
just being a de disc car unless you're
hoping it becomes a coin but you know in
this day it's probably not um but the
coins that survive meaning the coins are
still relevant
today uh but have fully 100% circulating
flow or maybe close to 100% think those
coins are also very interesting to BU um
because you have no more unlock pressure
nobody is going to dump on you right and
so I think a lot of the new narratives
can be championed by some of these old
coins that will have a rediscovery of uh
some of them area we haven't seen them
all that much yet but I when I see them
I'm going to be betting pretty heavily
on um and obviously the last type coin
is your from day one 100% C Supply and
those are most might be your main coins
because they just drop everything into
the community they don't require any
form of funding um
I think that in terms of preference of
coins right the best ones as the high
through all coins with rediscovery
access the number one in terms of profit
potential the second one would be the
mean coins where you have 100% of float
but the token doesn't actually do
anything uh the third one is the new
coins where you have you know fresh
charts mainly because they're on some
form of timer um but it depends if the
if s the vertical is really hot and they
like the Shing point in the mar fine by
me um so I ranked it like that uh and
that's really hard we probably find uh
new
rosp uh on the longer D book yeah I
guess on the high float tokens like that
that's one of the reasons why I think
def5 coins can come back um maybe I'm
just falling into this the valy Trap
mentality um and maybe I want like maybe
subconsciously I want them to come come
back right so you know I'm thinking that
you maybe I should buy them um but the
problem is that you know all these coins
like a maker they have opportunity cost
you know if you have e you can air drop
Farm earn 10 20 30% API you hold a it's
like not doing anything I guess you can
stake it but it's like a 20-day cool
down period um and also one thing you
mentioned earlier that that was good um
playing solved game is not good right um
and I immedately thought of like poker
where I got into poker 2020 or like
professionally in 2020 I was like
running Pio Sims every single day like
game the solvers and I made some money
but like I was like you know I was like
poor basically so you know you have to
find unsolved games and of course it's a
lot easier said than done right a lot
easier to look for something that's
pumped and they okay like time to play
that again but maybe that's too late um
it maybe the next meta the cycle is
something that hasn't even been
discovered yet right uh so maybe the
goal is to survive now just keep looking
for opportuni and you know whenever you
see something that's like a brain dead
long just go for it um and you know not
touch these high float Sor low float FTV
stuff um until the float is fairly
decent um and speaking around like this
topic um salience uh asked this question
so I'm sure you have some visibility on
the OTC markets with Team hedging
investors hedging or just Traders Shing
the these tokens um does this give you
any color um into I guess your trading
book um what do you see in the OTC
markets for all these VC coins um and
how do you think they'll trade I guess
maybe you expect some short squeezes um
but I guess you know can you give us
more color like on what you see I guess
in these OT
markets I typically don't try well
number one it doesn't inform our own uh
position on our Venture our Venture ball
uh we have a very simple rule we will
never ODC out any sack we will never hit
any any Venture value uh on on PS um
mainly number one mainly on principle
because I think it's not the best if you
get caught doing it uh and I don't think
is correct and number two it can
actually hurt you finally quite a bit if
the thing that you're hedging CL par
parabolic run because you have no uh you
have unlimited downside on on anything
that you're aging so I as a rule we
don't do it um whether in
forms okay so
any all these OTC deals are
basically hands that are being changed a
marginal buyer sing to a marinal seller
uh does this mean that the person buying
it has a stronger view or a more darh
handed view of the token it can be but
not necessarily I don't try and look too
much into this Dynamic I would say that
there are exceptions to which some coins
are very heavly traded and by the time
it comes to open market uh all the I
guess we hands are out and then it
starts going on a run I think the most
popular example of this was salana back
in 2021 but by and large these or the is
don't necessarily but um for the market
um I think you would have some
situations in which markets understand
where vs are buying or selling this and
for that reason use it some form of
support it's and best a cans
relationship because number one the
people who are buying these bags likely
will not be buying it on the Open Market
at the same time like the reason why
they're buying it and that they cannot
buy open market a lot of BTS have
mandates that they cannot purchase opens
so it's not really like okay if you know
let's say TI is being traded at $3 a ton
of the ODC markets it means that $3 is a
support but you can M it to be a support
enough people believe it it can be a
support but there's no actual like
relationship as to like why this should
be a support you know what I mean um so
I wouldn't really too much into the odcs
I would say that this cycle that have
been significantly more uh in terms of
St being traded mainly because I think
uh well number one there are a lot more
predatory BCS that have
understood that to win they need to sell
there were a lot of people of holders in
two21 that just never saw their s and
some benefit that very very well then
but then the Vintage of those who try to
do that it everyone die right so what
happened now as that has been in greened
a venture ecosystem and for the more cap
the more opportunistic Venture investor
uh they're going to take the
first opportunity to to unload these on
this on
the so you see a lot more turn I don't
think you make that much hope so yeah I
guess people trying to trade these
unlocks maybe it's a form of fancy play
Syndrome where you there's probably
better markets for you to look at but
maybe people love the gamble they're
like oh like you know like I'm going to
Long the unlock because I'm so smart and
I'm right and then they can tweet about
it and get engagement uh maybe that's
more of the utility of these like
trading unlocks there's like no Edge to
be had but it's more for attention right
like because whenever there's an unlock
there's more attention so maybe there's
more volatility uh I something I've seen
every bullish unlock there is there are
like 10 bearish unlock there's probably
like 100 bearish unlocks
honestly we just don't hear about it
because they're all going correct so uh
not really my cup of tea yeah no I 100%
agree and you know you mentioned earlier
um near the beginning that you don't
really see leverage coming back to the
system in the form of under catalized
loans and VCS understand that they need
to sell in order to locking gains and I
guess that's one difference that I've
noticed the cycle from last cycle last
cycle there was a lot of greed lots of
Leverage lots of just you know money
flying around everywhere but this cycle
you know of course there is greed right
you can see that in the M coin sector uh
but people are still relatively careful
um and for that reason maybe we
shouldn't expected that much downside um
but maybe the upside is going to be less
muted um and maybe crypto just trade
like other markets you know like
eventually and maybe this SU recycle
thesis finally comes into effect yeah I
think that's the eventuality and um I
hope we you know I think that I you
probably wared that the way that you're
investing in crypto would be
significantly different what you're
doing today right uh and I think it's a
very good reason why there are there
isn't that much greed in the market
anymore because
anyone has exhibited those traits have
lost all their money like those guys the
reason why you don't those 10x long
uh guys in MOS all die they've been
think
maer species yeah basically right not
endanger you just don't see them anymore
um so so so now now you're you're seeing
guys um I guess the more prent traders
that you know take on much lower
leverage uh and you know up for more you
know Capital preservation riskmanagement
because those are the guys that survive
the Cycles right so uh it's a it's just
basically another sign of PVP I mean
when easy liquid uh easy liquidity
conditions come
back the greed will come back the
retards with the ten leverage will come
back and you know that that's a sign
that you know you're in for a pretty
good run run for a
while yeah I guess you know going back
to this original um Audi question
I feel like crypto Twitter has really
deteriorated the cycle um maybe because
there are no significant Tech
improvements so the only thing to talk
about are like price action and meme
coins and maybe that attract the wrong
type of people um but how do you use
Twitter like how how do you yeah how how
do you differentiate between signal and
so much noise into space and like where
do you get the most valuable information
nowadays I don't really use to the or
Val word anymore it's more so so my news
feed keep up the breath with what
happening in the space but not so much
as Alpha you know I think the long ago
uh the alpha mov to
Goodra
so uh it's tough uh there are still some
good accounts out there uh maybe I'll
put together a list um to share uh but
off the top make it I just in general
don't think TR is that useful for Alpha
but you need it uh and think what's
important is for people who use Twitter
uh be a content creator I think it's
very important uh to make fit that your
voice heard so that you slowly build
some sort of online presence and I think
this day and age of this generation
being having an online presence is as
important uh as having capital I think
it's a it's a different kind of capital
social capital and it is very
unappreciated and who knows someday it
may come back in the form of social fire
to help
you right yeah and you know we we tried
with frch but I think that thing is like
down
95% um oh dear old friend that going to
be one of the lotes in this
fight wait wait what do you mean like
did you bu friend
or oh yeah was H I'm almost embarrassed
to tell you how how much BR we own so we
shall move on okay we will move on and
it's okay the next the next social
flight bet will pay off and yeah I
totally agree like I like I'm naturally
like an introverted person but I still
put myself out there know the bu Market
in the bare Market um and you know I
think people recognize that and even
with like the whole celebrity qu meta
right it's like someone with a 500,000
followers like some celebrity tweets to
mcoin it doesn't move and then some
someone like 50k followers who have a
lot of Engagement that can send the
price up like you know 10 20 x right so
there's a lot of Social Capital um and
because crypto is so terminally online
um so like so much narratives get formed
on Twitter um so that there just having
an account to make friends um to keep up
with narratives I think is really
important because like you said I I I
agree a lot of the alpha has moved off
Twitter and into group chats discords
Etc um so you you really want to be part
of that right because otherwise we're
all performing where we're all I guess
participating at like a Negative Edge
because this industry is so Insider
driven if you're not cor going away from
the majors
cor yeah anyways this was a good
conversation um I guess a few more
questions um I'm curious like what are
your life goals like when do you like
retire from crypto do you think crypto
is just a means to an end right like to
run up numbers on a screen at some point
you hit a certain number you go away um
like how do you see yourself I guess in
to 10 years like where do you want to be
what are your goals
Etc yeah I think it's very simple uh
well number one I love the game I love
the game of
competing uh
with uh the best and brightest Traders
and investors in the world I think the
is the fairest and best platform of plan
uh to achieve super normal wealth
um the goal for me in the next 10 years
is very Che to build the best prop Fund
in crypto globally uh that is very true
to to me and I think so far you know the
ti two of tangent I think with on prank
uh was still you know in the baby sages
but eventually we'll get uh
hopefully I think looking past that my
life goal is basically to I've always
I've always dreamed about the stars and
going basically accelerating Humanity's
progression towards being an inter
Interstellar species oh one
day uh if I would leave a legacy on my
contribution I would like to try and you
know support that endeavor in any way I
can um so one of the things on my bucket
list is basically I want to go to space
before I die I it's PR cool um so the
yeah I think that's a pretty it's a big
enough life goal such that I don't think
I ever get
bored yeah I guess know we're
all you know
going we're like not really on a
traditional career path right like we're
all just degenerates at heart um and
though we're focused on survival and
being a cockroach we all want to Deen
you know we all want to just pun you you
want to punch coin up the leverage
steal something but I guess right now
maybe time to
lay low stay calm and let the markets
dictate um how much action um we Chase
yeah and I mean I enjoy every day what
I'm doing right it's not like I don't
enjoy there be stressful days that be
days you lose money that we days you win
money um so but it's the act of just
staying in the game and just battling it
out uh grinding it out versus your
competitors and eventually
winning yeah I guess we talked about
your future hopefully you know you just
go to space and you know help Humanity
go to Mars or something but uh if you
can give advice let's say to your
younger self let's say in 2020 because I
think that's when you joined right um
crypto like what would it be in order to
be a successful Trader investor Mark
participant actually um it would
be never
lose your morals and always keep your
ethics because I think I didn't after
four years in this P I've seen a lot of
yeah there's so much man
not so nice um some close
to me some further away me uh so
and I've definitely been tempted to do
things that are on the greater side of
things but I like the belief that I've
stayed the right C uh but I think that
is probably the most important thing
never lose yourself in pursuit of your
goals I would say that's pretty
important because if you if you give up
who you are or your your Purity as a
person before you join
crypto to achieve you know whatever
dollar value that you want to achieve
then I think you've sort of lost your
way in the pursuit of wealth um so yeah
I think that's that's something to keep
in
mind yeah
I definitely agree you I tend to have
this Mantra of just trying to play
long-term games with long-term people um
because there's always opportunities
right it's like oh like we have
followers you have followers you know
like I get DMS all the time like you
know show this coin show that coin but
it's like no like that's it's a
vaporware so so of course you know I
would I have a lot less money than I
would have if I took all these deals in
the past four years but I do think that
you know the personal relationships yeah
yeah yeah I I I like like you said I do
want to leave some form of legacy on
crypto um hopefully it's good right
hopefully I don't blow up um hopefully
I'm not like beging for fruit Dan or
something
but you know I I do think that having
morals having ethics has helped me build
good relationships in crypto and that's
everything right like I think Su said
this where someone said this like it's
not enough for you to be rich like you
want to be rich with your friends right
like you want to make it with friends
and then you can just have these
lifetime like lifelong relationships um
and hopefully you know we have that
right we'll hopefully see each other in
Singapore yes yeah and you know we can I
guess yeah like you know meet all these
people go Singapore um but yeah I really
like that advice Never Lose Yourself um
really tempting to take the shortterm I
guess gains right like you know to do
immoral stuff um but I think you want to
life you you want to live life with no
regret
um you want to
minimiz the thing as well about being
crypto is that like if you say right now
uh say don't don't do stuff that is
Shady like when you first hear it like
yeah of course I won't do that right but
the thing is I think as a young person
when you haven't really seen the world
you haven't already seen what the world
can be um I guess you don't expect
things and I think after four years
being in crypto I see a lot of stuff and
and it's not always so simp right but I
think if you follow that I guess that
Guiding Light of not losing yourself and
reserving you know your mors here I
think you come out
okay yeah well this is a great
conversation darl um do you have any
final words of wisdom uh final Alpha I
guess how to make it this cycle um
everyone loves this
section I always say um basically it's
my it's my instagam
uh bio B laughing long live laugh long
it's l laughing long so you live meaning
you try and enjoy yourself uh try and
enjoy life all you can when you're
young uh you take care of your body you
take care of your health you take care
of the people around you you l meaning
yeah you you have a good time you
appreciate where you are uh and you're L
because as an investor
longing allows you to allocate the
resources when you think deserves to be
and you have the power to determine
which vertical should be worth higher
which vertical deserves more resources
and that's how you contribute the
society so live laughing long live laugh
long I like that I'm definitely living
and laughing and I'm definitely long so
I definitely love that
advice all right yeah all right right
thanks Daryl hope everyone enjoyed
episode 21 of crypto Market Wizard and
we'll see you again maybe in a couple
months again byebye bye God thanks for
watching and I hope you enjoy the
content if you want more free content
around crypto Defi and onchain farming
please check out the link in the
description below for a free newsletter
also I run a premium Community called
The Humble farmer Army so if you're
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link in the description below thanks for
watching and see you guys next time
bye-bye
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