Where are we in the Cycle? w/ Darryl Wang

Crypto Market Wizards
18 Jul 202458:51

Summary

TLDRIn episode 21 of the Crypto Market Wizards podcast, Garen returns to discuss the current crypto market cycle, sharing insights on market sentiment, investment strategies, and the impact of political events like Trump's assassination attempt. He also delves into the future of crypto, touching on topics like the potential of Solana, the role of DeFi, and the importance of narrative trading in the evolving landscape.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The guest, Daryl, discusses his current market views, noting a shift from a bearish stance to a more aggressive position following recent events, such as the Trump assassination attempt, which he believes has bullish implications for the market.
  • 🐻 Daryl explains the different levels of market positioning, ranging from 'Omega bearish' to 'aggressive', and how Tangent has been operating within these bands, adjusting their net beta based on market conditions.
  • 🔄 Daryl highlights the challenges of the last three months in the crypto market, describing it as the most difficult period since he started in crypto, due to the market's volatility and the unexpected downturn.
  • 💰 He discusses the importance of not being fully invested in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), suggesting that to outperform the market, one needs to take bets on altcoins that are not part of the consensus.
  • 🌐 Daryl shares his views on Solana (SOL), stating that it is currently their main beta position and that they hold no BTC or ETH, indicating a strategic shift in their portfolio composition.
  • 🏦 The conversation touches on the potential impact of a BlackRock ETF on the market, with Daryl suggesting that it might not deliver the expected supernormal performance due to increased competition and market saturation.
  • 💡 Daryl emphasizes the importance of narrative trading in crypto, arguing that traditional value investing frameworks do not apply as effectively in the crypto space, where narratives and market sentiment play a significant role.
  • 🚀 Daryl expresses his long-term aspirations beyond crypto, including contributing to humanity's progression towards becoming an interstellar species and his personal goal to go to space.
  • 🤔 The discussion includes advice for new crypto participants, suggesting that they focus on preserving capital, understanding market cycles, and being prepared for the challenges of a brutal PVP (Player vs. Player) environment.
  • 🌐 Daryl shares his thoughts on the current state of crypto Twitter, noting its decline in providing valuable alpha and the importance of building an online presence and social capital in the crypto community.

Q & A

  • What is the current stance of Tangent on the crypto market?

    -Tangent has been operating within bands one and two, which indicates a very bearish to cautiously defensive stance. Their net beta has never been more than 50% long at any point in time, and they have been focusing on tight validations on a low time frame trading setup.

  • How has the market been performing in the last three months according to the podcast?

    -The last three months of the market have been the most challenging since the start of crypto, with significant drawdowns and volatility. The market has seen wild swings, including a double bottom formation and a quick reclamation of range on the back of a political event.

  • What was the impact of the Trump event on Tangent's market position?

    -The Trump event was a pivot for Tangent. They were 15% long going into Sunday but after the event, they closed their shorts and went long, operating within the most aggressive band again, which is the 75 to 120% range.

  • What is Tangent's current long position in the crypto market?

    -Tangent is currently about 78% long, with a significant portion of their positions in Solana (SOL) and other altcoins. They do not hold any Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) at the moment.

  • What is the significance of the ETF in the context of the crypto market?

    -The ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is seen as a potential outflow for traditional capital to invest in crypto, specifically Ethereum. However, expectations for the ETF are not overly high, and it might not deliver the supernormal performance that some investors anticipate.

  • What is the current sentiment on DeFi in the crypto market?

    -DeFi is currently seen as undervalued by some, but the general sentiment is that it may not be the best bet for E beta. The market is not necessarily looking for undervalued assets but rather narratives that can drive prices up.

  • How does Tangent view the potential of Solana in the current market?

    -Tangent views Solana as a potential proxy coin for speculating on Republican wins in the US elections. If Republicans win, the probability of the ETF goes up, which could positively impact Solana's price.

  • What are the main factors influencing Tangent's market positioning?

    -Tangent's market positioning is influenced by two main factors: a Republican win in the US elections and easing liquidity conditions. These factors help them determine whether to be conservative, optimistic, defensive, or aggressive in their market approach.

  • What is the current cycle phase of the crypto market according to the podcast?

    -The crypto market cycle is currently seen as tricky, with some arguing that it is in the mid-cycle phase. The dispersion between altcoins and Bitcoin suggests that the market is still in a PVP (Player vs. Player) environment, with potential for a shift to PVE (Player vs. Environment) when conditions change.

  • What advice does the podcast offer for new crypto investors?

    -New crypto investors are advised to focus on gaining experience in the market, understanding the cycles, and balancing on-chain and centralized exchange trading. They should also be prepared to navigate the challenges of a PVP environment until the market shifts to a PVE environment.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Crypto Market Wizards Podcast Recap

In this episode of the Crypto Market Wizards podcast, host TIY welcomes back Wigaren for the third time. They discuss the recent market events, including the significant drop in altcoin bags by 50%. The conversation delves into market strategies, with Wigaren sharing insights on the current bearish market view and how his firm, Tangent, has been positioning their investments. The discussion covers different levels of risk exposure, from Omega bearish to aggressive, and how these strategies have been adjusted in response to market movements. Wigaren also touches on the impact of political events, such as Trump's shooting incident, on the crypto market.

05:01

📉 Market Positioning and Strategy Adjustments

The conversation continues with a detailed discussion on market positioning, focusing on the aggressive band of 75 to 120% long positions. Wigaren explains that Tangent is currently about 78% long, with a focus on major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but also highlights their significant positions in Solana. The discussion explores the nuances of portfolio variance and the importance of denominating in the right assets. Wigaren also shares his thoughts on the upcoming ETF and its potential impact on market dynamics, emphasizing the need for non-consensus bets for superior performance.

10:03

🔍 Analyzing the Market Cycle and Narrative Trading

Wigaren and TIY delve into the complexities of the current market cycle, discussing the challenges of navigating through different market phases. They explore the concept of narrative trading, where market movements are driven by stories and associations rather than fundamental value. The conversation touches on the potential for social finance and AI to become dominant narratives in the future. Wigaren also shares his views on the importance of recognizing and adapting to the prevailing market conditions, whether they are PVP (player versus player) or PVE (player versus environment).

15:04

🚀 The Impact of Political Events on Crypto Markets

The discussion highlights the significant influence of political events on the crypto market, particularly the attempted assassination of Trump and its impact on market sentiment. Wigaren explains how such events can lead to sudden shifts in market positioning and the importance of being agile in response to these changes. The conversation also touches on the potential for a Republican win in the upcoming elections and its implications for the market, with a focus on how these events can create new investment opportunities.

20:04

🤔 Navigating the Market: Strategies and Predictions

Wigaren shares his insights on the current state of the crypto market, discussing the challenges of predicting market movements and the importance of being prepared for various scenarios. He outlines the factors that he believes will influence the market, including the outcome of the US elections and changes in liquidity conditions. The conversation also covers the potential for a breakout above $74k and the conditions that would need to be met for such a move to occur. Wigaren emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to investing, combining both on-chain and centralized exchange strategies.

25:06

💡 The Role of OTC Markets in Crypto Trading

The conversation turns to the role of over-the-counter (OTC) markets in crypto trading, with Wigaren sharing his views on the implications of OTC trades for market dynamics. He discusses the potential impact of large OTC trades on market sentiment and the importance of understanding the motivations behind these trades. Wigaren also shares his personal approach to trading, emphasizing the importance of avoiding OTC trades for risk management and ethical reasons.

30:07

🌐 The Future of Crypto: Interstellar Ambitions

Wigaren reveals his long-term goals and aspirations, which extend beyond the crypto market to include contributing to humanity's progress towards becoming an interstellar species. He shares his dream of going to space and his desire to support endeavors that accelerate humanity's exploration of the cosmos. The conversation also touches on the importance of maintaining one's morals and ethics in the pursuit of wealth and success in the crypto industry.

35:08

💼 Building a Legacy in Crypto: Ethics and Relationships

The discussion concludes with a reflection on the importance of building a legacy in the crypto industry, with a focus on maintaining strong personal relationships and adhering to ethical standards. Wigaren shares his belief in the value of long-term relationships and the role they play in achieving success in the crypto market. He also emphasizes the importance of not losing oneself in the pursuit of wealth, highlighting the need for integrity and authenticity in all endeavors.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Crypto Market Wizards

Crypto Market Wizards is likely the name of the podcast in which this conversation is taking place. It suggests a focus on discussing strategies, insights, and experiences related to cryptocurrency trading and investment. The podcast likely features interviews with experts or prominent figures in the crypto space, aiming to provide valuable content for its audience interested in the crypto market.

💡Bearish

In the context of financial markets, being 'bearish' means having a negative outlook or expecting that the market or a particular asset will decline in value. In the script, the term is used to describe the general sentiment or strategy of the speakers during a period of market downturn, indicating they were cautious and potentially reducing their exposure to risk.

💡Beta

Beta in finance refers to a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. A beta greater than 1 indicates greater volatility than the market, while a beta less than 1 indicates less volatility. In the script, the term is used to describe different levels of market exposure, with 'net beta' indicating the overall market exposure of a portfolio.

💡Altcoin

Altcoin is a term used to describe any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin. It is short for 'alternative coin.' In the script, the term is used to discuss the performance and investment in various cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin, highlighting the risks and strategies involved in altcoin trading.

💡Portfolio

A portfolio in finance refers to a collection of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, cash, and cash equivalents, as well as real estate investments. In the script, the term is used to discuss the composition and management of the speakers' investment holdings, including their strategies for adjusting exposure to different assets.

💡Tangent

In the context of the script, 'Tangent' seems to refer to a specific entity or group involved in the crypto market, possibly a trading firm or investment group. The term is used to discuss the market views and strategies of this entity at the current point in the market cycle.

💡DeFi

DeFi stands for Decentralized Finance, which is a financial system built on blockchain technologies that aims to recreate traditional financial products and services without centralized intermediaries. In the script, DeFi is discussed in relation to its potential as an investment opportunity and its current market conditions.

💡ETF

ETF stands for Exchange-Traded Fund, which is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product. In the context of the script, an 'ETF' is mentioned in relation to Bitcoin, suggesting a discussion about the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF on the market, including its effect on liquidity and investor behavior.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity in finance refers to the ability of an asset or security to be readily bought or sold in the market without affecting its price. In the script, the term is used to discuss the conditions in the crypto market, particularly the ease with which assets can be traded and the potential impact of liquidity on market movements.

💡Social Capital

Social capital refers to the resources and benefits that individuals derive from their social networks. In the script, the term is used to discuss the importance of having an online presence and building relationships in the crypto community, which can be as valuable as financial capital in influencing market outcomes.

💡Leverage

Leverage in finance is the use of borrowed money to increase the potential return of an investment. In the script, the term is used to discuss the strategies of traders in the crypto market, highlighting the risks associated with using high leverage and the current cautious approach to leverage in the market.

💡Airdrop

An airdrop is a marketing strategy used by blockchain-based projects to distribute a portion of their tokens to a large number of wallet addresses, often for free. In the script, the term is used to discuss the practice of 'airdrop farming,' which involves participating in airdrops with the aim of profiting from the distributed tokens.

💡OTC Markets

OTC stands for Over-The-Counter, referring to a decentralized marketplace where transactions are made directly between two parties without the need for a centralized exchange. In the script, OTC markets are discussed in relation to the trading of cryptocurrencies, particularly the impact of large transactions on market prices and the behavior of institutional investors.

Highlights

Garen from Tangent returns for the third time to discuss crypto market views and strategies.

Market sentiment was bearish over the last six weeks, with Tangent taking a cautious approach to risk.

Tangent's net beta was never more than 50% long, indicating a very bearish to cautiously defensive stance.

The last three months have been the most challenging in the crypto market since the last cycle.

Tangent's positions were tightly validated on a low time frame trading setup to minimize losses.

The Trump event was a pivotal moment that led Tangent to become more aggressive in their positions.

Tangent is now operating within the most aggressive band, being 75 to 120% long.

Major positions are primarily in Solana (SOL), indicating a strategic focus on this cryptocurrency.

Tangent does not hold Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum (ETH) currently, showing a shift in investment strategy.

The potential for a Republican win in the US elections is seen as bullish for markets and crypto.

Tangent's fund is denominating in Solana, viewing it as a better bet than Ethereum for the current cycle.

The thesis for Solana has evolved, now including its potential as a proxy coin for speculating on Republican election wins.

Defi is not seen as the best proxy for Ethereum beta, with Tangent taking a cautious approach to Defi investments.

Narrative trading is favored over value investing in the crypto space, focusing on market narratives rather than undervalued assets.

Tangent is looking into social finance (SoFi) and AI as potential areas of interest for the next market cycle.

The market is currently in a PVP (Player vs. Player) environment, with a lack of retail participation.

Tangent's long-term thesis includes a Republican win in the US elections and easing liquidity conditions as key factors for a market breakout.

Crypto Twitter is seen as having deteriorated over the cycle, with a focus on price action and meme coins rather than significant tech improvements.

Advice for new crypto participants includes focusing on gaining experience and building an online presence for social capital.

Long-term goals for Tangent include building the best prop fund in crypto and contributing to humanity's progression towards becoming an interstellar species.

Transcripts

play00:00

what's up everyone TIY here welcome to

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episode 21 of the crypto Market Wizards

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podcast today I have here with me wi

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Garen for the third time welcome back

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how are you doing

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today it's good it's been a long day

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it's been a very eventful day after

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yesterday's Monumental event but that be

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here so last time you were on this show

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Daryl uh you know you said you know what

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this is your second cycle you don't want

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to be mid curve right you need to

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believe in something um and I was like

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you know what Daryl's right I do need to

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believe in my bags and ever since this

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video my bags my altcoin bags they're

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down 50% so like what happened darl and

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now your co-founder uh you know Jason

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Choy for tangent now he's posting these

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bear takes like welcome to bear toown

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like what is tangents market views at

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this current point and where where do

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you think we are in the cycle so yeah so

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you know depends on the how F uh Pang

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has uh positions taken on multiple

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different time phrases and sometimes

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they may not concur with what we

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necessarily say public

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um the General High Time view over the

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last call it 6 weeks uh was that we were

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pretty bearish where markets were going

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um we were de risk or had the risk the

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majority of our current positions I

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think um during the majority of the draw

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down our Sense

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on how we positioned uh is split between

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four different re

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uh the first one is Omega bearish uh

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this basically means that you are

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anywhere between minus 10% to 25% more

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this is basically when you think it's

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over uh and you're really only hold into

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your highest conviction POS positions or

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sometimes you may even be next short we

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try not go more than minus 10% which

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which means 10% Direction on the entire

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portfolio uh the pores of conserva

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gr um is a net net beta between 25 to

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50% a cautiously optimistic approach is

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beta between 50 to

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75% and a aggressive approach is

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anything between 75 to call

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it% so uh for the part of the last two

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months uh tangent was mainly operating

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within bands one and two which was you

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know very bearish to cautiously

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defensive so our net beta is never we

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were never more than I I would say 50%

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long at any point in time but uh the

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positions that we had long were running

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very tight in validations on a low time

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frame trading setup and so when you know

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certain levels were lost we could be inv

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validated and we didn't lose too much on

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them um I would say that the last three

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months of the market have been probably

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the most challenging uh it has been over

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the last cycle um it's probably the most

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challenging has been since I started

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crypto uh given where I guess markets

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topped uh given where expectations were

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and you know I guess how it has bottomed

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that 54k uh given where we are today

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right you you basically Edge everyone uh

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thinking that you've just broken past L

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side all their highs thinking that 100K

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is on the table uh even we were buying

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CLS at 74k which highight looks

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absolutely um but uh and then

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breaking the four month range below 56k

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only the bottom 5% lower than that

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forming a double bottom in a ban of G

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and then quickly reclaiming range on the

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back of a 30-year political event only

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in crypto do you have such wild swings

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sh

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one yeah and I guess you're referring to

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you know just Trump getting shot right

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and corre yeah and I guess after that

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event I think his odds of winning just

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shot up um I think 10 to 20% I think

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some of his name coins went up as well

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and I think Trump is vocally proc crypto

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so I guess you know we don't have to get

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into Political argument but um

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objectively I guess Trump winning is

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bullish markets bullish crypto is that

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how you're doing it yes so actually um

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the Trump event was the pivot for me

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because we we were actually uh 15% long

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um going into Sunday uh it was my time

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Sunday morning uh we had a couple all

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Longs open but we were hedging it with a

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couple of BDC shorts at

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59k uh I woke up for some reason early

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in the morning on Sunday saw my feet saw

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that thing instantly close my shots and

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then basically just land long um because

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multiple multiple different assets uh

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now you know we are operating within the

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most aggressive uh band again which is

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the 75 to 120% uh range uh we're now

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about 78% long uh not you know full full

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long but you know we'll probably buy

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retest of 60k with the rest of our car

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nice and when you say you're you know

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let's say 80% long is it mostly in the

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majors uh like ahead of the e e ETF or

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are you also just sprinkling in some I

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guess beta plays uh col like all coin

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like how how do you position long right

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like how do you define aggressive is it

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just Majors or just you just you know

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slam the alt as well so when you see

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major are referring to BBC e let's say

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BTC e and soul I think Soul has made it

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uh as like the top three yeah so I think

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primarily uh we were putting on pretty

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lot Soul positions um and uh we hold no

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BTC and E right now interesting

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interesting so so I think I'll have to

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make an extra note under Nuance of data

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as well uh because I think what you own

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conses would you know dramatically

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affect the variance of your portfolio as

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well so for example I think being 50%

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long o meaning not be C for so is

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probably more volatile than if you were

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to be 100% on BDC So within that range

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uh when I say that we were agressively

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low um I would say that if you're 100%

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long BDC you're definitely low you're

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definitely pretty aggressively long but

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you're not really pushing it that much

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right you can really be 100% long

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absolute coin just like like just

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wait for those fast then and B us so uh

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right now we're about 80% long uh say

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the Marg position we have a salana uh

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and then a Smacker of all the alls that

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we can discuss yeah and for the audience

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we're recording this of at July 15th um

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so obviously you know depending on when

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you're watching this these numbers might

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change and I think

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last time we had you on uh you said that

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you're going to denominate in salana

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this cycle or at least your fund your

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liquid fund um you still view this to be

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the case um we have the ETF coming it

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doesn't make sense to be you know

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allocated to eat as well or do you think

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that if eat goes up the Sal going to go

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up even more so might as well just long

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the fastest

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horse yeah so we've given a lot of

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thought about this um I still think

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that in order to achieve our performance

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you're probably going to need to take

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bets on andet that are not consensus LS

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and I think with the EV tier um it

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probably will give you comfortable

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returns uh as long as fls don't

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disappoint and I think right now they

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are about barely price in terms of

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expectations but I don't think you're

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really going to be outperforming the

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market versing the market if you're

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denominated in E BDC for example

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uh and and it's quite funny because the

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majority of H fans out there I don't

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they have alform BDC so maybe that may

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actually betic you uh but as always we

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try and attend up on BDC and um I just

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don't think you're going to be able to

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do that with BDC e as the primary beta

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in your portfolio and who still within

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uh that soul is the

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main B position that we will have for a

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varying am the reasons I think for now

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the thesis has changed quite a bit

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slightly the thes are originally shared

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is the y s is going to be the best

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playable speakers number one it was the

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easiest you actually use it was the

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cheapest it was the fastest uh at the

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same time it also had a blossoming mean

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ecosystem around it right this was

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before your whiffs your bong uh your lck

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and popcats were really consens logs and

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I think right now they pretty good as

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logs uh that thesis is I think quite

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well understood by the market now I see

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a number of inor reactions saying if you

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want to put on lws you can put it on

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salana I am LS for a slightly different

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reason now um I think I'm not sure

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whether you saw a couple weeks ago there

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was this Lana UTF that was

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F and uh I think while the probability

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of it being

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accepted is CL to zero day that may not

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be the case if

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Republicans are in

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control of American regulatory

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forces

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and because of how the US election up I

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think salana is actually going to be the

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proxy coin that people may Ben me

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gravitate towards uh if they're trying

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to speculate on Republicans uh winning

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the election simply because if they win

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the probability of the EF goes up

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tremendously and I don't think Solana is

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anywhere close to properly priced for a

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black rock Sala obviously we still quite

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some ways away from that happened but I

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think leading up to the elections this

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sentiment is something that I think it's

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pretty

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on and nobody's really talking about it

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yet so this is one of the main reasons

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why we're lost all uh but I think moving

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into the elections and maybe poost the

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elections will reevaluate that view uh

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but I think as long from now till

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November it's probably going to be the

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best bement for me that the nominator

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got it that's very interesting and I

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think that logic makes a lot of sense um

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and I guess going back to um the first

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interview we did um at least for theer

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wizards we talked about how you know eat

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is cucked eat is cooked uh when does eat

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ever get uncooked you know like does

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does the ETF help right is the ETF the

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answer to all the eat holders like

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prayers or do you just think that

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holding eeve is just going to be one of

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those things where yeah you're G to make

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money but you know it's not going to be

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like crazy right uh I guess what's your

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view on E uh with the ETF

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I guess you have to realize that he

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started as an Ico at like 10 cents so

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one can make the argument that the

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superior out performance for e in its

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existence is past this right it now

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become embraced as a very comfortable

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beta asset by most and whenever you have

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by the majority of Market of this you're

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probably not going to have super normal

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performance by that asset I think the

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last cycle was the proper cycle in which

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the E ecosystem was recognized as being

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significantly different from Bitcoin

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could offer significantly different

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value positions in terms of smart

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contracts and that re rating was I think

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e going from you march 202 of $60 to a

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higher

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4,000 this

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cycle you have

play12:24

significantly more

play12:26

competitors which offer very similar us

play12:29

pce or perhaps Superior r pce as well

play12:33

for that reason I think without the e it

play12:37

is unlikely that

play12:39

e delivers that kind of super normal

play12:42

performance relative to the rest of the

play12:44

market it can still go on a r but I

play12:47

think if it does other access will

play12:49

better uh but with the E ETF I think

play12:52

it's an out

play12:54

for traditional Capital to stop buying

play12:57

it I typically trying to refrain from

play13:00

predicting what the flows is to look

play13:01

like mainly

play13:03

because after doing quite a bit of work

play13:06

there are too many

play13:08

conflicting pieces of evidence such that

play13:11

we don't have a proper conclusion com to

play13:13

my head I would say that the frows for

play13:16

the ETF will probably be a

play13:19

disappointment to most but it's always

play13:22

relative the expectations and right now

play13:24

I think expectations for the EF are not

play13:28

anywhere near overly so it could be

play13:31

meeting current expectations it could

play13:33

even be underpricing them a little bit

play13:35

and then least can have a move to B

play13:37

again and maybe you know even retest

play13:39

Highs but in that in that situation I

play13:42

would think You' been much better off

play13:45

only all because that General we uptick

play13:50

off uh I guess that Baseline uh just

play13:55

makes everything go so much higher

play13:57

anyway got it and I guess you know on

play14:00

Twitter there's always disc this

play14:02

discussion around eat beta like what is

play14:04

eat beta um people tried longing L2

play14:07

tokens but it just keeps going down um

play14:09

and you mentioned salana and I think

play14:11

that makes sense but what are your

play14:12

thoughts on defi um of course I think

play14:16

when we connected three or four years

play14:18

ago um it's because you were

play14:20

specializing in defi I was specializing

play14:22

in Defi and you know it was new and

play14:25

exciting um and unfortunately it's 2024

play14:28

and you know

play14:29

there has been some improvements but

play14:31

nothing too groundbreaking um you

play14:33

mentioned a lot of things around you

play14:35

know like betting against consensus

play14:37

expectations versus reality it seems

play14:39

like sentiment for diva is in the

play14:40

absolute gutters um but you know like

play14:43

some of these coins like a is like 1.5

play14:45

billion market cap maker sub three

play14:47

billion can't you make a case that defi

play14:50

can finally be eat beta or do you think

play14:53

that there's too much hopium and copium

play14:54

from my side um but like what are your

play14:57

general thoughts on defi

play14:59

I think there two aspects there that

play15:02

need to be dissected I think the first

play15:04

one is uh the concept of def5 doing e

play15:07

beta I don't actually think def5 is the

play15:10

best boxy for E beta because beta

play15:13

basically means 11 b or something else

play15:17

uh the thesis points that you're raising

play15:20

about how D5 could be a law those are

play15:23

these points independent of right and so

play15:25

they shouldn't be classified as you you

play15:29

shouldn't be using these these argument

play15:31

to say this is a good be it can be a

play15:34

good law as an independent thesis but

play15:36

not it's really got nothing to do with

play15:38

East beta I think right now um East beta

play15:42

is this concept is very freaking uh the

play15:45

market you know hazly decides what is e

play15:49

beta today and what's E better tomorrow

play15:51

and they're not necessarily the same

play15:52

thing I think trying to play the East

play15:56

beta game is of WS Aon uh

play15:59

there's not that much money to be made

play16:02

in my opinion and the risk of being

play16:04

wrong means you're just left on the SEL

play16:06

we too often uh so but I mean it like

play16:10

there are some I guess consensus inators

play16:13

uh you happy for example which is the me

play16:15

e beta uh you have Pendle which is the

play16:18

def5 E beta uh you have your OG Optimus

play16:21

and arbitrum which your L2 e bet really

play16:24

depends on the flavor of the of the day

play16:26

or of the week but the market decide

play16:28

what pump

play16:29

um but I once again go back to the

play16:32

thesis

play16:34

of when there are too many

play16:36

betas none of them will deliver you

play16:38

Alpha so that is my base case uh on the

play16:44

second part about defi getting

play16:46

potentially at levels where you know it

play16:50

may be attractive again the people

play16:53

arguing for defi law because defi is

play16:56

undervalued

play16:59

are probably not longing it for the

play17:02

right reason like we do not long things

play17:04

in crypto because they're under

play17:07

value maybe in 10 years time when this

play17:10

Bas is completely on a steady state

play17:13

basis maybe that thesis works when

play17:16

capital is much more accustomed to

play17:20

traditional markets and crypto mes been

play17:23

locked that with existing equities that

play17:26

does not happen today which means that I

play17:28

will not use equity Frameworks to try

play17:31

and value crypto tokens I still believe

play17:35

that narrative trading is and will

play17:37

continue to be the

play17:39

best uh form of our performance uh on

play17:43

mods so I don't toy like thesises that

play17:47

say long are because of XYZ reason which

play17:51

makes it under value or the cash flows

play17:54

are too attractive like if you are

play17:57

longing Ary for the cash shows my friend

play18:00

there are a huge array of traditional

play18:02

bands so you can go and investigate so

play18:04

you can go long that is not the reason

play18:06

why get uh I will change that thesis uh

play18:11

if I see something material that happens

play18:13

in def5 I haven't seen it yet uh I do

play18:16

admit that with this lens I missed pendo

play18:19

from this uh cyclos run it had a

play18:21

fantastic run uh and I was just I didn't

play18:25

I overlooked the the pendal thesis and

play18:28

by myself working and it was too late uh

play18:30

so I with this sort of approach you're

play18:32

definitely going to miss some things uh

play18:34

but in general it served me pretty well

play18:36

to not fall into the value traps that is

play18:39

defi maybe like I would give you one

play18:42

example of something I think is

play18:43

interesting today and I you know a

play18:45

number of people are already capturing

play18:46

on to it it is Mak getting that black

play18:49

rock

play18:50

Association uh with uh it's I believe

play18:53

black Ro's investing in its new funnel

play18:55

some variation yeah M maker is going to

play18:58

do you know collect a billion dollars

play19:00

from all these you know Ono Black Rock

play19:03

um correct so so m is getting a bit now

play19:07

not because people realize that the cash

play19:09

draws from it operating that is all the

play19:12

Stu undervalue people are buying it

play19:14

because the Black Rock Association and

play19:16

why are they doing that because they've

play19:17

seen Ono run a ridiculous amount on that

play19:20

same FES so prices are moving because of

play19:24

Association specific things that the

play19:27

market has learned will drive prices out

play19:30

you got it right so to me that's thetive

play19:34

tra you're making maker ative tra and

play19:36

that work that's fine um but not do on

play19:40

value interesting so it seems like you

play19:42

know you favor narrative trading over

play19:45

getting into these value traps and I

play19:47

guess you know value investors even the

play19:49

stock market has gotten destroyed uh

play19:50

relatively growth investing um and

play19:53

there's always this element of pattern

play19:55

recognition um oh like Bon went up when

play19:57

Sola went up there for when e goes up

play19:59

Pepe goes up with goes up or whatever uh

play20:02

what are your thoughts on the next

play20:04

narrative because me coins obviously has

play20:06

been crazy the past year um recently

play20:08

they've kind of you know felt came back

play20:10

to Earth um do you think they're going

play20:12

to come back like stronger than ever or

play20:14

do you think that a new narrative going

play20:16

to form what are your thoughts on like

play20:18

the next

play20:19

narratives I think as long as you're not

play20:22

see proper technological innovation in

play20:25

cryp mean Parts they home and I really

play20:28

still have not seen anything that

play20:30

excites me the

play20:32

most interesting thing that excit me

play20:35

this cycle is like

play20:37

parter which is why I

play20:40

think there will be some form of social

play20:43

fireing that comes out I don't know when

play20:45

it's going to come out and we've seen

play20:47

small instances of it already um but a

play20:51

narrative

play20:52

that I probably look

play20:55

into play when it it makes itself not is

play20:58

the social fin uh I think it a fresh

play21:02

game um it the least understood by

play21:05

people it's very difficult to bought I

play21:08

believe um

play21:10

so that is something that offers also

play21:13

the most interesting dream of this side

play21:16

um it's obviously that and the Evergreen

play21:20

one for this sidey is also AI which I'm

play21:23

surprised it's not c a bit yet yeah I'm

play21:26

surprised too it's like bit like bit

play21:27

tensor down a lot like all these AI

play21:30

coins are just down a lot uh I mean I

play21:33

think everyone in crypto understands

play21:34

that these AI coins don't really do

play21:36

anything but people were bidding it

play21:37

because it's oh it's like an AI coin and

play21:38

videoid is going up so this will also go

play21:40

up but I guess that hasn't happened I

play21:42

guess do you think that's just because

play21:45

we're still relatively in PvP conditions

play21:48

where maybe if retail was coming back

play21:50

you know if it was relatively PVE then

play21:52

all these coins would just like you know

play21:53

go up in tandem um but there's been a

play21:56

significant dispersion in asset

play21:57

performance in crypto

play21:59

um and do you think that's just because

play22:00

there's not enough money in crypto to

play22:01

support all these all these so there's

play22:04

so many tokens right um the one you

play22:06

think PVE comes back and how do you

play22:08

navigate like PVP meta like where we are

play22:11

now yeah I mean we we've been navigating

play22:13

it I mean everyone has been navigating

play22:15

it uh for the last basically four month

play22:18

right um I think you've been in the most

play22:21

brutal PVP environment right now uh

play22:24

stable coin I think I think I believe

play22:25

it's beginning to start going up again

play22:28

uh which is a very good sign that the

play22:30

PVE is lightening um but I think we're

play22:33

more so than is still a PVP we will

play22:35

continue to be here until we break po

play22:38

out I think 7 4K if that breaks then you

play22:43

really get I think tve enironment

play22:47

because number one the capital do need

play22:49

to push it up um it's a lot more than

play22:52

what we have today uh and I think that

play22:56

four month break oh

play22:59

or how however long it Tak to break out

play23:01

that consolidation view within this

play23:04

range uh will have conditioned so many

play23:07

traders to be in a PVP mindset that when

play23:10

PVE comes in they won't recognize it and

play23:13

that's how we get explosive moved on so

play23:18

uh I believe that can only happen uh

play23:23

well we had a longterm thesis for what

play23:26

do we need to see before we have

play23:28

credible reasons to believe 74k can

play23:31

break up and there were two main things

play23:34

that were highlighted the first one is a

play23:37

republican wig in the US elections uh

play23:41

which is one of the reasons why we flip

play23:43

so drastically uh on the assassination

play23:45

attemp yesterday um I think now it's all

play23:49

but certain that Trump is going to win

play23:53

and I think the markets are beginning to

play23:55

reprice that uh in today uh there will

play23:59

definitely be some volatility between

play24:01

now and then um but I think more or less

play24:04

the outcome is reasonable you you are

play24:07

reasonable so needed outcomes already uh

play24:10

in front of us the second point is on

play24:13

easing liquidity commisions and this is

play24:16

up to all de friends the power I do

play24:20

think you're going to need General

play24:22

Global easing liquidity and uh

play24:24

conditions in order for crypto to

play24:27

experience the kind of run in

play24:29

2021 uh we I believe in two weeks time

play24:33

we will have the

play24:35

first FC meeting where I cut this

play24:39

potentially on the demo and we're

play24:40

expecting a couple more Cuts uh shortly

play24:43

after

play24:45

so this cisti is not perfect but I think

play24:50

it's needed in order to break

play24:54

74k I don't know when it's going to

play24:56

happen May it could come 3 months after

play24:58

Cuts have happened it could

play25:01

come 3 days after Cuts have happened uh

play25:04

I have no Clarity there but I think

play25:06

these are the two main things I'm

play25:07

looking at to determine how to position

play25:10

basically which should band I in my

play25:12

position I sort of conserva to be

play25:14

optimistic defensive very bearish or

play25:17

aggressive it's really up to these two

play25:19

factors and so far we've got one one of

play25:21

them down uh a month ago we had n them

play25:25

right so we were waiting until we saw

play25:27

further confirmation these to fce before

play25:29

we decided to put on risk again got it

play25:32

so where do you think we are in the

play25:34

cycle uh it feels like we're somewhere

play25:37

midcycle

play25:38

um and I guess to our audience you know

play25:40

we're all trying to make it um if

play25:42

someone you know trying to run it up

play25:44

right now like what do you think is like

play25:45

the best way um to I guess you know get

play25:48

to someone's whatever financial

play25:51

goals oh that's okay that's very let's

play25:54

go for the first part of the question

play25:55

where we are in B uh this is very very

play25:58

tricky um we at in kind we typically

play26:02

split the CYO into four quadrants q1

play26:05

q24 uh q1 is basically

play26:09

the bottom of you know everybody under

play26:13

positioned all P this lost uh and then

play26:15

you slowly start start grinding up on a

play26:17

wall wor Q2 is when the acceleration of

play26:21

the open coming to full swe uh people

play26:24

begin to realize Monumental levels of

play26:27

wealth

play26:28

uh and you start getting the top signals

play26:31

to come up as you approach2 Q3 is when

play26:34

the top signals are in full force prices

play26:37

we getting

play26:39

consolidating you feel like you things

play26:42

should keep going on but prices are

play26:44

really not moving that much and Q4 is

play26:47

when basically you start losing ranges

play26:49

Marco structure starts breaking down uh

play26:52

and doens R levels and then never that

play26:57

and you start that's so one by one

play26:58

people get killed what yeah um this

play27:02

cycle has been really tricky because we

play27:04

seems like we saw antire cycle meaning

play27:08

each of those quadrants already happen

play27:11

uh but for different path of the market

play27:13

right for alts for example you can make

play27:15

the argument that you saw all levels of

play27:16

q1 Q2 Q3 and Q4 happened already the

play27:20

some of that and you can even make the

play27:21

argument where the next for results um

play27:25

for Bitcoin it seems like we are like

play27:27

maybe three maybe Q true but we don't

play27:31

really know uh because if this is the

play27:34

car then if let's say we are unable to

play27:37

break s 4K then this is still this is

play27:39

probably in Q3 where probably just

play27:41

supposed to sell everything um it's so

play27:44

it's the trickiest because of the dispos

play27:47

between Al and

play27:48

BDC I tend to think with the amount of

play27:53

with the OS syntic flows of the

play27:55

ETF um Bitcoin is sort of distancing

play28:00

itself

play28:01

away from conventional crypto cycle I

play28:04

think that too many latent biders that

play28:06

will step into defend prices uh and also

play28:09

uh one thing you know Credit in our

play28:12

industry has really not come back in any

play28:14

form since 2021 you don't see any lever

play28:19

entities really pushing credit limits uh

play28:22

both seen and unseen I would say that

play28:25

like if you really want to look at

play28:27

credit limit the only anything

play28:30

that like aena is not even like a credit

play28:33

risk it's more so like an in liquidity

play28:35

background risk but there's nothing

play28:37

really you know borrowing money or like

play28:40

there's no uh uncollected LS out there

play28:43

you know waiting togethera I think all

play28:45

your on loans as well and if you look at

play28:47

how many loans have taken Ona I don't

play28:49

think they are anywhere near levels

play28:51

where you

play28:52

at

play28:55

so Bitcoin I think and

play28:59

lightly become or start creating like

play29:02

more conventional assets especially with

play29:04

the ETF I think alts will still have its

play29:07

own uh its own sort of Cycles um and

play29:11

alts will basically function

play29:16

as derivatives all Bitcoin meaning if

play29:22

Bitcoin begins to go up alss will start

play29:24

double charging up Bitcoin bitcoin's

play29:26

momentum begins to uh begins to SP B

play29:30

will start coming down Bitcoin

play29:33

starts even just turning down slightly

play29:37

BS are basically going to start cing and

play29:39

that's what we saw um in the last four

play29:42

months so it's very challenging uh we're

play29:45

still forming our own Frameworks how to

play29:47

think about this but it's no longer the

play29:49

truth that you know you can have simple

play29:51

systems like Capital GES goes into BC

play29:55

then it goes into e then it goes into

play29:57

all then it goes the sh coin and it goes

play29:59

back to BDC like I don't think that that

play30:02

was like in 2017 2018 maybe in 2020 for

play30:04

it that's

play30:06

longer uh to your second Point what to

play30:09

do if you're joining cpto today I'm like

play30:11

oh my God why would you cry even it's so

play30:14

hard it's so hard it's so hard like I I

play30:17

was telling I was telling Jason if I saw

play30:19

crypto today from the outside there's no

play30:20

way I Joy like it's so much more

play30:23

difficult than just aing equities like

play30:26

you can just be aing QQQ and you

play30:29

probably be out performing my 80% of

play30:31

people in yeah so but you really wanted

play30:35

to try um I would

play30:38

say two things uh number one Goan that's

play30:44

I've always said gain because that's

play30:46

where the best reflective assets are and

play30:49

the best

play30:51

upsite but onchain does not last

play30:54

wherever if you notice you have very

play30:56

specific onchain season where there with

play30:59

um happens and then you will have DOS of

play31:04

just basically ghost TOS so I think you

play31:08

need to also be able to trade uh the

play31:12

centralized exchange PS and so I think a

play31:14

balance of running long short trades on

play31:18

centralized exchanges as well as on

play31:21

chain ability is prefer in order to make

play31:25

it the cycle

play31:26

but obv be honest with

play31:29

you unless you

play31:32

are running very sophisticated

play31:35

strategies on Meme coins

play31:38

or yeah basically that or you use a

play31:41

T of

play31:43

liary I just I just don't see how you

play31:45

were to make like 508 in this

play31:48

Mar I don't see anyone do it yeah I

play31:52

would say that this is the time that

play31:53

you're still basically supposed to

play31:55

preserve your Capital try and slowly

play31:56

grow it then when you get that eat and

play31:59

you go e the condition then you really

play32:00

go to tow I don't think we' back that

play32:03

yet yeah like even for me like I I run a

play32:06

fairly not not really but some

play32:08

sophisticated air drop farming strategy

play32:11

um and paid pretty well at the beginning

play32:13

of the year maybe late last year but

play32:15

like nowadays you know we Farm these

play32:18

things to dump them everyone's doing

play32:21

that and then when the token comes out

play32:23

it just goes down like 80% yeah like

play32:26

even blast like I was very surprised to

play32:28

see it below like two billion um I guess

play32:30

in hindsight it kind of makes sense um

play32:32

but I guess like my question to you is

play32:35

what do you think about I guess this air

play32:37

draw farming like VC you know low flow

play32:39

High FDB beta or low flow High FDB meta

play32:42

um and do like are these alts just a

play32:46

tool for you to like just get in and out

play32:48

right just like make a few bucks on a

play32:49

trade get out don't want to touch them

play32:51

don't want to hold them um it seems like

play32:53

a lot of people are coming this type of

play32:54

mentality some form of jeness with

play32:57

crypto this cycle um yeah like what are

play32:59

your thoughts on yeah I I think there's

play33:02

generally consensus and I I I'm gr to

play33:04

disagree with it um for a couple of

play33:06

reasons uh I

play33:09

think uh but think a St back away with

play33:12

it uh I I don't really commend on air

play33:14

drop farming because I've never already

play33:15

done it uh I don't know the strategies I

play33:19

think

play33:22

it's it was the unsolved game two years

play33:26

ago today it's pretty much Dan all in

play33:30

general when you're playing soft games

play33:32

you don't you win a lot of money uh that

play33:35

that's in though I will say that for

play33:39

speculators in today cycle think that

play33:42

the three different types of alts that I

play33:46

think people have begun to come back to

play33:49

again and again uh the first type are

play33:54

new Point new points meaning just this

play33:56

the fresh floats you know 5% floats 10%

play34:00

floats uh maybe you got the added off a

play34:02

lot uh but other than that for the next

play34:05

3 to six months you have to be meaning

play34:07

whatever F that is there not going to

play34:10

change these coins are ones where you

play34:15

can bu new narrative where the Cs are F

play34:19

meaning there are no resistances no

play34:21

support slow ranges uh and basically

play34:25

you're free uh to work with them in part

play34:28

your

play34:29

imagination uh as you move on and you

play34:33

start nearing the unlock this I think

play34:36

this is where things get very dangerous

play34:38

because a lot of people begin to hit

play34:40

their unlocks uh and if done

play34:45

incorrectly uh you will see a number of

play34:48

different short setups or short squeezes

play34:51

that made punish hes and then one

play34:53

example this is something like Celestia

play34:55

right now where even though unlock it's

play34:58

coming in few months time 3 months is an

play35:01

eternity in cryor right if you're Hing

play35:03

your unlock as a function of you say oh

play35:06

okay I just to wait three more months

play35:08

and then I'll be able to you that my

play35:11

gone uh if that becomes too consensus

play35:14

you may have to content with a squeeze

play35:15

in your hands and I think these squeezes

play35:17

we haven't really seen anything really

play35:19

powerful yet um I think I'm not sure

play35:21

whether you recall last I bu B stay

play35:23

called the wi squeeze on Wi-Fi it wasn't

play35:26

exactly the same thing

play35:28

uh but it shows you the power of short

play35:30

squeezes that we haven't really seen

play35:33

this we have that in the making for some

play35:36

of these alts in the future um and then

play35:40

once you start hitting that right I call

play35:43

this the death of speculation you have

play35:46

this value where it's a no touch and you

play35:50

basically don't touch it you're not

play35:52

allowed to touch it if you want the make

play35:53

money um until the float is at least if

play35:57

50% of the total FTD so basically once

play36:01

you hit the cliff you have like 10% of

play36:04

10% of float and then your Sloat start

play36:07

going out maybe on the 8 go to 15% and

play36:10

then as time unlocks your team investors

play36:13

and every wants to unlock

play36:15

on you dump on

play36:16

you uh your foot goes up and then charts

play36:20

like arbitrum she charts like Li CHS

play36:23

like dydx and this is the no Zone

play36:25

because you just get eight if you TR

play36:28

uh until until I think it gets to about

play36:31

50% float uh that's when I think the

play36:34

majority of The Dumping is done you

play36:36

still have to condem some of it but rela

play36:39

to to the flo it's okay uh and then you

play36:42

move on to the other end right that the

play36:44

all the coins where the float is close

play36:48

to 100%

play36:50

And the majority of these coins are debt

play36:53

coins they're GH coin that you can St

play36:55

just being a de disc car unless you're

play36:56

hoping it becomes a coin but you know in

play36:59

this day it's probably not um but the

play37:01

coins that survive meaning the coins are

play37:03

still relevant

play37:05

today uh but have fully 100% circulating

play37:08

flow or maybe close to 100% think those

play37:11

coins are also very interesting to BU um

play37:15

because you have no more unlock pressure

play37:17

nobody is going to dump on you right and

play37:20

so I think a lot of the new narratives

play37:23

can be championed by some of these old

play37:25

coins that will have a rediscovery of uh

play37:32

some of them area we haven't seen them

play37:35

all that much yet but I when I see them

play37:37

I'm going to be betting pretty heavily

play37:40

on um and obviously the last type coin

play37:44

is your from day one 100% C Supply and

play37:49

those are most might be your main coins

play37:51

because they just drop everything into

play37:53

the community they don't require any

play37:55

form of funding um

play37:58

I think that in terms of preference of

play38:01

coins right the best ones as the high

play38:05

through all coins with rediscovery

play38:07

access the number one in terms of profit

play38:10

potential the second one would be the

play38:12

mean coins where you have 100% of float

play38:15

but the token doesn't actually do

play38:18

anything uh the third one is the new

play38:21

coins where you have you know fresh

play38:23

charts mainly because they're on some

play38:25

form of timer um but it depends if the

play38:29

if s the vertical is really hot and they

play38:32

like the Shing point in the mar fine by

play38:34

me um so I ranked it like that uh and

play38:38

that's really hard we probably find uh

play38:41

new

play38:42

rosp uh on the longer D book yeah I

play38:46

guess on the high float tokens like that

play38:48

that's one of the reasons why I think

play38:50

def5 coins can come back um maybe I'm

play38:53

just falling into this the valy Trap

play38:55

mentality um and maybe I want like maybe

play38:58

subconsciously I want them to come come

play39:00

back right so you know I'm thinking that

play39:03

you maybe I should buy them um but the

play39:05

problem is that you know all these coins

play39:06

like a maker they have opportunity cost

play39:09

you know if you have e you can air drop

play39:10

Farm earn 10 20 30% API you hold a it's

play39:14

like not doing anything I guess you can

play39:15

stake it but it's like a 20-day cool

play39:16

down period um and also one thing you

play39:19

mentioned earlier that that was good um

play39:21

playing solved game is not good right um

play39:24

and I immedately thought of like poker

play39:26

where I got into poker 2020 or like

play39:28

professionally in 2020 I was like

play39:30

running Pio Sims every single day like

play39:32

game the solvers and I made some money

play39:34

but like I was like you know I was like

play39:36

poor basically so you know you have to

play39:40

find unsolved games and of course it's a

play39:43

lot easier said than done right a lot

play39:46

easier to look for something that's

play39:47

pumped and they okay like time to play

play39:48

that again but maybe that's too late um

play39:51

it maybe the next meta the cycle is

play39:54

something that hasn't even been

play39:55

discovered yet right uh so maybe the

play39:57

goal is to survive now just keep looking

play40:00

for opportuni and you know whenever you

play40:02

see something that's like a brain dead

play40:03

long just go for it um and you know not

play40:06

touch these high float Sor low float FTV

play40:09

stuff um until the float is fairly

play40:12

decent um and speaking around like this

play40:16

topic um salience uh asked this question

play40:20

so I'm sure you have some visibility on

play40:22

the OTC markets with Team hedging

play40:24

investors hedging or just Traders Shing

play40:27

the these tokens um does this give you

play40:29

any color um into I guess your trading

play40:33

book um what do you see in the OTC

play40:36

markets for all these VC coins um and

play40:39

how do you think they'll trade I guess

play40:41

maybe you expect some short squeezes um

play40:43

but I guess you know can you give us

play40:44

more color like on what you see I guess

play40:46

in these OT

play40:48

markets I typically don't try well

play40:52

number one it doesn't inform our own uh

play40:55

position on our Venture our Venture ball

play40:58

uh we have a very simple rule we will

play40:59

never ODC out any sack we will never hit

play41:01

any any Venture value uh on on PS um

play41:06

mainly number one mainly on principle

play41:09

because I think it's not the best if you

play41:12

get caught doing it uh and I don't think

play41:14

is correct and number two it can

play41:17

actually hurt you finally quite a bit if

play41:19

the thing that you're hedging CL par

play41:22

parabolic run because you have no uh you

play41:25

have unlimited downside on on anything

play41:27

that you're aging so I as a rule we

play41:29

don't do it um whether in

play41:36

forms okay so

play41:39

any all these OTC deals are

play41:43

basically hands that are being changed a

play41:46

marginal buyer sing to a marinal seller

play41:49

uh does this mean that the person buying

play41:53

it has a stronger view or a more darh

play41:58

handed view of the token it can be but

play42:02

not necessarily I don't try and look too

play42:04

much into this Dynamic I would say that

play42:09

there are exceptions to which some coins

play42:11

are very heavly traded and by the time

play42:14

it comes to open market uh all the I

play42:18

guess we hands are out and then it

play42:19

starts going on a run I think the most

play42:21

popular example of this was salana back

play42:24

in 2021 but by and large these or the is

play42:27

don't necessarily but um for the market

play42:31

um I think you would have some

play42:35

situations in which markets understand

play42:38

where vs are buying or selling this and

play42:41

for that reason use it some form of

play42:43

support it's and best a cans

play42:46

relationship because number one the

play42:49

people who are buying these bags likely

play42:53

will not be buying it on the Open Market

play42:55

at the same time like the reason why

play42:57

they're buying it and that they cannot

play42:59

buy open market a lot of BTS have

play43:01

mandates that they cannot purchase opens

play43:04

so it's not really like okay if you know

play43:09

let's say TI is being traded at $3 a ton

play43:11

of the ODC markets it means that $3 is a

play43:14

support but you can M it to be a support

play43:17

enough people believe it it can be a

play43:18

support but there's no actual like

play43:20

relationship as to like why this should

play43:22

be a support you know what I mean um so

play43:26

I wouldn't really too much into the odcs

play43:29

I would say that this cycle that have

play43:31

been significantly more uh in terms of

play43:34

St being traded mainly because I think

play43:38

uh well number one there are a lot more

play43:40

predatory BCS that have

play43:43

understood that to win they need to sell

play43:47

there were a lot of people of holders in

play43:51

two21 that just never saw their s and

play43:55

some benefit that very very well then

play43:58

but then the Vintage of those who try to

play44:01

do that it everyone die right so what

play44:04

happened now as that has been in greened

play44:07

a venture ecosystem and for the more cap

play44:10

the more opportunistic Venture investor

play44:14

uh they're going to take the

play44:16

first opportunity to to unload these on

play44:20

this on

play44:21

the so you see a lot more turn I don't

play44:26

think you make that much hope so yeah I

play44:29

guess people trying to trade these

play44:31

unlocks maybe it's a form of fancy play

play44:33

Syndrome where you there's probably

play44:36

better markets for you to look at but

play44:38

maybe people love the gamble they're

play44:39

like oh like you know like I'm going to

play44:41

Long the unlock because I'm so smart and

play44:43

I'm right and then they can tweet about

play44:44

it and get engagement uh maybe that's

play44:46

more of the utility of these like

play44:48

trading unlocks there's like no Edge to

play44:49

be had but it's more for attention right

play44:51

like because whenever there's an unlock

play44:53

there's more attention so maybe there's

play44:54

more volatility uh I something I've seen

play44:57

every bullish unlock there is there are

play44:59

like 10 bearish unlock there's probably

play45:01

like 100 bearish unlocks

play45:03

honestly we just don't hear about it

play45:05

because they're all going correct so uh

play45:10

not really my cup of tea yeah no I 100%

play45:14

agree and you know you mentioned earlier

play45:17

um near the beginning that you don't

play45:19

really see leverage coming back to the

play45:21

system in the form of under catalized

play45:22

loans and VCS understand that they need

play45:26

to sell in order to locking gains and I

play45:28

guess that's one difference that I've

play45:30

noticed the cycle from last cycle last

play45:32

cycle there was a lot of greed lots of

play45:33

Leverage lots of just you know money

play45:35

flying around everywhere but this cycle

play45:38

you know of course there is greed right

play45:39

you can see that in the M coin sector uh

play45:41

but people are still relatively careful

play45:44

um and for that reason maybe we

play45:46

shouldn't expected that much downside um

play45:48

but maybe the upside is going to be less

play45:50

muted um and maybe crypto just trade

play45:53

like other markets you know like

play45:55

eventually and maybe this SU recycle

play45:57

thesis finally comes into effect yeah I

play46:00

think that's the eventuality and um I

play46:02

hope we you know I think that I you

play46:05

probably wared that the way that you're

play46:07

investing in crypto would be

play46:08

significantly different what you're

play46:09

doing today right uh and I think it's a

play46:12

very good reason why there are there

play46:14

isn't that much greed in the market

play46:16

anymore because

play46:18

anyone has exhibited those traits have

play46:22

lost all their money like those guys the

play46:24

reason why you don't those 10x long

play46:28

uh guys in MOS all die they've been

play46:31

think

play46:35

maer species yeah basically right not

play46:39

endanger you just don't see them anymore

play46:41

um so so so now now you're you're seeing

play46:45

guys um I guess the more prent traders

play46:47

that you know take on much lower

play46:49

leverage uh and you know up for more you

play46:54

know Capital preservation riskmanagement

play46:57

because those are the guys that survive

play46:58

the Cycles right so uh it's a it's just

play47:02

basically another sign of PVP I mean

play47:04

when easy liquid uh easy liquidity

play47:07

conditions come

play47:08

back the greed will come back the

play47:11

retards with the ten leverage will come

play47:13

back and you know that that's a sign

play47:16

that you know you're in for a pretty

play47:18

good run run for a

play47:21

while yeah I guess you know going back

play47:24

to this original um Audi question

play47:27

I feel like crypto Twitter has really

play47:29

deteriorated the cycle um maybe because

play47:31

there are no significant Tech

play47:33

improvements so the only thing to talk

play47:35

about are like price action and meme

play47:36

coins and maybe that attract the wrong

play47:39

type of people um but how do you use

play47:42

Twitter like how how do you yeah how how

play47:44

do you differentiate between signal and

play47:45

so much noise into space and like where

play47:47

do you get the most valuable information

play47:51

nowadays I don't really use to the or

play47:54

Val word anymore it's more so so my news

play47:57

feed keep up the breath with what

play47:59

happening in the space but not so much

play48:02

as Alpha you know I think the long ago

play48:06

uh the alpha mov to

play48:08

Goodra

play48:10

so uh it's tough uh there are still some

play48:14

good accounts out there uh maybe I'll

play48:15

put together a list um to share uh but

play48:20

off the top make it I just in general

play48:22

don't think TR is that useful for Alpha

play48:26

but you need it uh and think what's

play48:29

important is for people who use Twitter

play48:34

uh be a content creator I think it's

play48:36

very important uh to make fit that your

play48:39

voice heard so that you slowly build

play48:41

some sort of online presence and I think

play48:43

this day and age of this generation

play48:46

being having an online presence is as

play48:51

important uh as having capital I think

play48:53

it's a it's a different kind of capital

play48:55

social capital and it is very

play48:58

unappreciated and who knows someday it

play49:01

may come back in the form of social fire

play49:03

to help

play49:04

you right yeah and you know we we tried

play49:07

with frch but I think that thing is like

play49:09

down

play49:10

95% um oh dear old friend that going to

play49:15

be one of the lotes in this

play49:18

fight wait wait what do you mean like

play49:20

did you bu friend

play49:22

or oh yeah was H I'm almost embarrassed

play49:26

to tell you how how much BR we own so we

play49:28

shall move on okay we will move on and

play49:32

it's okay the next the next social

play49:33

flight bet will pay off and yeah I

play49:36

totally agree like I like I'm naturally

play49:39

like an introverted person but I still

play49:41

put myself out there know the bu Market

play49:43

in the bare Market um and you know I

play49:45

think people recognize that and even

play49:48

with like the whole celebrity qu meta

play49:49

right it's like someone with a 500,000

play49:51

followers like some celebrity tweets to

play49:53

mcoin it doesn't move and then some

play49:56

someone like 50k followers who have a

play49:58

lot of Engagement that can send the

play50:00

price up like you know 10 20 x right so

play50:02

there's a lot of Social Capital um and

play50:04

because crypto is so terminally online

play50:07

um so like so much narratives get formed

play50:09

on Twitter um so that there just having

play50:12

an account to make friends um to keep up

play50:14

with narratives I think is really

play50:15

important because like you said I I I

play50:17

agree a lot of the alpha has moved off

play50:19

Twitter and into group chats discords

play50:21

Etc um so you you really want to be part

play50:24

of that right because otherwise we're

play50:26

all performing where we're all I guess

play50:27

participating at like a Negative Edge

play50:29

because this industry is so Insider

play50:30

driven if you're not cor going away from

play50:33

the majors

play50:35

cor yeah anyways this was a good

play50:37

conversation um I guess a few more

play50:40

questions um I'm curious like what are

play50:43

your life goals like when do you like

play50:45

retire from crypto do you think crypto

play50:47

is just a means to an end right like to

play50:49

run up numbers on a screen at some point

play50:52

you hit a certain number you go away um

play50:54

like how do you see yourself I guess in

play50:56

to 10 years like where do you want to be

play50:58

what are your goals

play50:59

Etc yeah I think it's very simple uh

play51:02

well number one I love the game I love

play51:03

the game of

play51:05

competing uh

play51:07

with uh the best and brightest Traders

play51:10

and investors in the world I think the

play51:13

is the fairest and best platform of plan

play51:19

uh to achieve super normal wealth

play51:23

um the goal for me in the next 10 years

play51:26

is very Che to build the best prop Fund

play51:31

in crypto globally uh that is very true

play51:34

to to me and I think so far you know the

play51:38

ti two of tangent I think with on prank

play51:41

uh was still you know in the baby sages

play51:44

but eventually we'll get uh

play51:47

hopefully I think looking past that my

play51:51

life goal is basically to I've always

play51:56

I've always dreamed about the stars and

play52:00

going basically accelerating Humanity's

play52:04

progression towards being an inter

play52:06

Interstellar species oh one

play52:09

day uh if I would leave a legacy on my

play52:12

contribution I would like to try and you

play52:14

know support that endeavor in any way I

play52:16

can um so one of the things on my bucket

play52:19

list is basically I want to go to space

play52:21

before I die I it's PR cool um so the

play52:26

yeah I think that's a pretty it's a big

play52:29

enough life goal such that I don't think

play52:32

I ever get

play52:33

bored yeah I guess know we're

play52:37

all you know

play52:39

going we're like not really on a

play52:41

traditional career path right like we're

play52:43

all just degenerates at heart um and

play52:45

though we're focused on survival and

play52:47

being a cockroach we all want to Deen

play52:49

you know we all want to just pun you you

play52:51

want to punch coin up the leverage

play52:54

steal something but I guess right now

play52:55

maybe time to

play52:57

lay low stay calm and let the markets

play52:59

dictate um how much action um we Chase

play53:03

yeah and I mean I enjoy every day what

play53:05

I'm doing right it's not like I don't

play53:07

enjoy there be stressful days that be

play53:08

days you lose money that we days you win

play53:10

money um so but it's the act of just

play53:14

staying in the game and just battling it

play53:16

out uh grinding it out versus your

play53:18

competitors and eventually

play53:22

winning yeah I guess we talked about

play53:25

your future hopefully you know you just

play53:28

go to space and you know help Humanity

play53:31

go to Mars or something but uh if you

play53:33

can give advice let's say to your

play53:35

younger self let's say in 2020 because I

play53:37

think that's when you joined right um

play53:39

crypto like what would it be in order to

play53:42

be a successful Trader investor Mark

play53:46

participant actually um it would

play53:50

be never

play53:52

lose your morals and always keep your

play53:55

ethics because I think I didn't after

play53:59

four years in this P I've seen a lot of

play54:01

yeah there's so much man

play54:03

not so nice um some close

play54:06

to me some further away me uh so

play54:12

and I've definitely been tempted to do

play54:16

things that are on the greater side of

play54:18

things but I like the belief that I've

play54:21

stayed the right C uh but I think that

play54:25

is probably the most important thing

play54:27

never lose yourself in pursuit of your

play54:30

goals I would say that's pretty

play54:31

important because if you if you give up

play54:34

who you are or your your Purity as a

play54:38

person before you join

play54:40

crypto to achieve you know whatever

play54:42

dollar value that you want to achieve

play54:45

then I think you've sort of lost your

play54:46

way in the pursuit of wealth um so yeah

play54:51

I think that's that's something to keep

play54:52

in

play54:53

mind yeah

play54:56

I definitely agree you I tend to have

play54:58

this Mantra of just trying to play

play55:00

long-term games with long-term people um

play55:03

because there's always opportunities

play55:06

right it's like oh like we have

play55:07

followers you have followers you know

play55:09

like I get DMS all the time like you

play55:11

know show this coin show that coin but

play55:13

it's like no like that's it's a

play55:15

vaporware so so of course you know I

play55:19

would I have a lot less money than I

play55:20

would have if I took all these deals in

play55:23

the past four years but I do think that

play55:26

you know the personal relationships yeah

play55:28

yeah yeah I I I like like you said I do

play55:30

want to leave some form of legacy on

play55:32

crypto um hopefully it's good right

play55:34

hopefully I don't blow up um hopefully

play55:36

I'm not like beging for fruit Dan or

play55:37

something

play55:38

but you know I I do think that having

play55:41

morals having ethics has helped me build

play55:44

good relationships in crypto and that's

play55:47

everything right like I think Su said

play55:49

this where someone said this like it's

play55:52

not enough for you to be rich like you

play55:54

want to be rich with your friends right

play55:55

like you want to make it with friends

play55:57

and then you can just have these

play55:58

lifetime like lifelong relationships um

play56:01

and hopefully you know we have that

play56:03

right we'll hopefully see each other in

play56:04

Singapore yes yeah and you know we can I

play56:08

guess yeah like you know meet all these

play56:09

people go Singapore um but yeah I really

play56:12

like that advice Never Lose Yourself um

play56:15

really tempting to take the shortterm I

play56:18

guess gains right like you know to do

play56:20

immoral stuff um but I think you want to

play56:24

life you you want to live life with no

play56:25

regret

play56:26

um you want to

play56:29

minimiz the thing as well about being

play56:31

crypto is that like if you say right now

play56:34

uh say don't don't do stuff that is

play56:37

Shady like when you first hear it like

play56:39

yeah of course I won't do that right but

play56:42

the thing is I think as a young person

play56:44

when you haven't really seen the world

play56:46

you haven't already seen what the world

play56:47

can be um I guess you don't expect

play56:50

things and I think after four years

play56:52

being in crypto I see a lot of stuff and

play56:56

and it's not always so simp right but I

play56:59

think if you follow that I guess that

play57:02

Guiding Light of not losing yourself and

play57:05

reserving you know your mors here I

play57:07

think you come out

play57:09

okay yeah well this is a great

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conversation darl um do you have any

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final words of wisdom uh final Alpha I

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guess how to make it this cycle um

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everyone loves this

play57:20

section I always say um basically it's

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my it's my instagam

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uh bio B laughing long live laugh long

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it's l laughing long so you live meaning

play57:35

you try and enjoy yourself uh try and

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enjoy life all you can when you're

play57:39

young uh you take care of your body you

play57:43

take care of your health you take care

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of the people around you you l meaning

play57:48

yeah you you have a good time you

play57:49

appreciate where you are uh and you're L

play57:53

because as an investor

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longing allows you to allocate the

play57:59

resources when you think deserves to be

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and you have the power to determine

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which vertical should be worth higher

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which vertical deserves more resources

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and that's how you contribute the

play58:13

society so live laughing long live laugh

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long I like that I'm definitely living

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and laughing and I'm definitely long so

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I definitely love that

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advice all right yeah all right right

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thanks Daryl hope everyone enjoyed

play58:27

episode 21 of crypto Market Wizard and

play58:30

we'll see you again maybe in a couple

play58:32

months again byebye bye God thanks for

play58:35

watching and I hope you enjoy the

play58:36

content if you want more free content

play58:38

around crypto Defi and onchain farming

play58:40

please check out the link in the

play58:41

description below for a free newsletter

play58:43

also I run a premium Community called

play58:44

The Humble farmer Army so if you're

play58:46

interested in that I will also put the

play58:48

link in the description below thanks for

play58:49

watching and see you guys next time

play58:50

bye-bye

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