Meatgrinder Continues - Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Summary

In the 28th month of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, diplomatic efforts intensify as both sides push for global support. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces face a Russian advance in Donbas and Kharkiv, yet Western aid helps stabilize the situation. The Ukrainian peace conference in Switzerland garners international support, while Russia's peace offer is dismissed as insincere. Meanwhile, foreign military aid to Ukraine, including potential F-16s and Mirage 2000-5 jets, continues to shape the conflict's dynamics.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The 28th month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues with no end in sight, and June 2024 sees increased diplomatic efforts by both Kyiv and Moscow.
• 🛡️ Ukrainian forces have reported a reduction in the shelling advantage of the Russians to a 5-to-1 ratio following the arrival of Western ammunition.
• 🏹 Despite minor territorial gains by Russia in the Kharkiv oblast, the Ukrainian army has managed to stall the Russian offensive and even encircle some units.
• 🔥 Heavy fighting persists in the Donbas region, with the Russian army making a steady but slow advance, capturing key areas and putting pressure on Ukraine's manpower.
• 📉 Russia's strategy involves attrition, slowly bleeding Ukraine out through continuous attacks and territorial gains, while avoiding large-scale mobilization at home.
• 🔄 There has been a significant change in Ukrainian command with the dismissal of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol and his replacement by Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov.
• 💣 Russia continues to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure, aiming to strain industrial capacity and wear down the Ukrainian public's resolve.
• 🛬 There is ongoing discussion and uncertainty regarding the provision of F-16 fighter jets and other Western military aid to Ukraine, with commitments but delayed implementation.
• 🤝 International support for Ukraine is demonstrated through various pledges of military and financial aid, including from the US, Italy, France, and potential South Korean involvement.
• 🕊️ Ukraine held a peace conference in Switzerland, emphasizing global support for its cause and discussing the possibility of future negotiations with Russia.
• ⚔️ The conflict remains unresolved with significant losses on both sides, and while diplomatic efforts are increasing, the path to peace is still uncertain.

Q & A

What significant event is the 28th month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine associated with?

The 28th month is associated with the intensification of diplomatic activity around the war in Ukraine, with both Kyiv and Moscow attempting to influence global perspectives on future negotiations.

How has the Western permission to use weapons against Russian military targets on Russian territory affected the situation in Kharkiv oblast?

The Western permission has drastically changed the situation in Kharkiv oblast, limiting the Russian military's freedom to deploy assets in border areas with Ukraine due to the fear of being struck, and contributing to a turnaround in the situation with the reported arrival of Western weaponry.

What is the current state of the shell advantage according to Ukrainian soldiers?

Ukrainian soldiers report that although the Russians still have a shell advantage, it has decreased to a 5-to-1 ratio after the arrival of Western ammunition.

What is the situation regarding the Russian offensive in Kharkiv as of late June?

As of late June, the Russian Kharkiv offensive has hit a wall, with some units potentially encircled in the Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk, according to various reports.

What is the significance of the Kanal microdistrict in the ongoing fighting?

The Kanal microdistrict is crucial as it is within the limits of Chasiv Yar. Despite Russian attempts to advance, Ukrainians have managed to prevent any meaningful progress in this area.

What is the general trend of the Russian army's advance in Donbas?

The Russian army has continued a steady and creeping advance in Donbas, capturing several key areas and putting pressure on important logistical nodes.

What recent development indicates a potential shift in South Korea's stance towards the conflict?

South Korea is reportedly considering sending shells and air defense systems to Ukraine due to increasingly friendly relations between Russia and North Korea, indicating a potential shift from their previous neutral stance.

What was the main goal of Ukraine's peace conference held in Switzerland?

The main goal of Ukraine's peace conference was to demonstrate global support for Ukraine's cause and to discuss provisions that could gain wider international consensus, such as the return of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to Ukrainian control and ensuring safe access to Black Sea ports.

What are the two main goals of Russia's targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure?

The two main goals are to strain Ukraine's industrial capacity, particularly its defense industry, and to wear down the Ukrainian public in an attempt to turn them against the Ukrainian government.

What is the significance of the reported damage to Russia's Su-57 fighter jets by Ukraine?

The damage to Russia's Su-57 fighter jets is significant as it may be part of a deliberate strategy by Ukraine to clear the skies for the potential arrival of Western jets, such as the F-16s.

What are the implications of the strategic partnership agreement signed between Russia and North Korea?

The strategic partnership agreement implies mutual assistance in the event of aggression and may contain provisions for North Korean weapons being sent to Russia, potentially increasing Russia's military capabilities in the conflict.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Intensifying Diplomatic Efforts and Ongoing Battles in Ukraine

June 2024 marks a significant month in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a focus on heightened diplomatic activities and continuous heavy fighting, particularly in Donbas and Kharkiv. Ukrainian and Russian forces are attempting to influence global perspectives on future negotiations. Despite minor advances, the Russian army faces challenges due to Western weapon provisions to Ukraine, which have altered the dynamics on the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers report a reduction in the shelling advantage of the Russians, now at a 5-to-1 ratio. The situation in Kharkiv has drastically changed, with Russian forces no longer freely deploying assets near the Ukrainian border for fear of Western strikes. However, the Russian military continues to make a slow but steady advance in other sectors of Donbas, causing a problematic situation for the Ukrainian army, which is gradually retreating to strategic areas.

05:02

📉 Russian and Ukrainian Military Developments Amidst Futility of Resistance

The Russian public and the Kremlin remain indifferent to the heavy losses in Ukraine, with Russia managing to avoid large-scale mobilization by recruiting new soldiers. Ukrainian military analyst Konstantyn Mashovets reports a constant flow of 1000-2000 personnel to Russian combat groupings each month. Ukraine's situation has improved since the crisis of early 2024, with Western military aid and new mobilization measures helping to stabilize the situation. The dismissal of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol from the command of the Joint Forces of Ukraine and his replacement with Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov marks a significant change in military leadership. Both sides continue to exchange long-range fire via missiles and drones, with Russia targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, aiming to strain industrial capacity and wear down the public. Despite this, Ukraine remains resilient, targeting Russia's oil refineries and air defense systems in Crimea.

10:06

🛫 Western Military Aid and the Prospect of Advanced Fighter Jets for Ukraine

Western military aid continues to be a critical factor in Ukraine's defense, with reports of Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium planning to send over 60 jets, including F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s, to Ukraine. Training facilities for Ukrainian pilots are a current challenge. The US has pledged additional military support, including HAWK air defense system missiles and other equipment, as well as financial aid for Ukraine's energy grid and humanitarian needs. Italy, Romania, and the Netherlands have also committed to providing air defense systems. Germany's military aid package includes tanks, vehicles, and air defense systems. France has pledged financial support and training for Ukrainian soldiers. The European Commission plans to send funds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, and Japan has signed a 10-year security deal with Ukraine, promising significant financial aid. South Korea is considering sending military aid to Ukraine, influenced by Russia's growing relations with North Korea, which has been a main supporter of Russia in the conflict.

15:10

🕊️ Ukraine's Peace Conference and Russia's Inadequate Peace Offer

Ukraine organized a peace conference in Switzerland, attended by 92 countries, to discuss the ongoing war and potential paths to peace. Russia was not invited, and the summit focused on gaining global support for Ukraine's demands, including the return of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to Ukrainian control, safe access to Black Sea ports, the return of Ukrainian citizens, and the exchange of prisoners of war. Western leaders and Ukraine acknowledged the need for future negotiations with Russia but dismissed Putin's peace offer, which essentially demanded Ukraine's surrender by giving up significant territories. The summit demonstrated global support for Ukraine's cause and discussed the possibility of a second peace summit, potentially including Russia.

📊 Visual Confirmation of Military Losses in the War

The Oryx blog has compiled visually confirmed military losses for both Russia and Ukraine as of June 30. Russia has suffered significant losses, including over 3180 tanks, 6960 armored vehicles, 282 command posts, 1273 artillery systems, 387 multiple rocket launchers, 119 aircraft, and 138 helicopters. Ukraine's losses are also substantial, with at least 858 tanks, 2681 armored vehicles, 19 command posts, 596 artillery systems, 72 multiple rocket launchers, 92 aircraft, and 46 helicopters. The Kings and Generals channel promises further updates on the war and encourages viewers to subscribe and engage with their content for exclusive updates and insights.

Keywords

💡Russian invasion of Ukraine

The term refers to the ongoing military conflict initiated by Russia against Ukraine, which began in 2014 and intensified in 2022. Within the video's context, it sets the stage for the discussion of ongoing battles, diplomatic efforts, and the international response to the conflict.

💡Diplomatic activity

Diplomatic activity in this script pertains to the efforts by various nations and international bodies to engage in dialogue and negotiations to resolve the conflict or to express support for one of the parties. The video discusses the intensification of such activities, particularly focusing on the positions of Kyiv and Moscow.

💡Kharkiv oblast

Kharkiv oblast is a region in Ukraine that has seen significant fighting during the conflict. The script mentions a breakthrough and subsequent stalling of the Russian army in this area, highlighting the strategic importance of the region in the ongoing battles.

💡Western weaponry

This term refers to military equipment provided by Western countries to Ukraine to aid in its defense against Russia. The script notes the arrival of such weaponry, including shells, and its impact on balancing the military capabilities on the battlefield.

💡Donbas

Donbas is a region in eastern Ukraine that has been a focal point of the conflict. The script describes heavy battles and the Russian army's advances in this region, emphasizing its significance in the ongoing war.

💡Manpower shortage

The term indicates a lack of sufficient military personnel. In the context of the video, it is mentioned as a challenge faced by Ukraine in the Donbas axis, affecting their ability to maintain a strong defense.

💡War of attrition

A war of attrition is a strategy that aims to wear down the enemy by causing them to suffer continuous losses over time. The script describes Putin's confidence in this approach, gradually taking territory and resources from Ukraine.

💡Energy infrastructure

Energy infrastructure encompasses the facilities and systems that produce, store, and distribute energy. The script discusses the targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure by Russia, aiming to strain the country's industrial capacity and affect public morale.

💡Foreign aid

Foreign aid refers to the assistance provided by one nation to another, often in the form of financial support, military equipment, or humanitarian supplies. The script details various forms of foreign aid pledged or provided to Ukraine by different countries.

💡F-16

The F-16 is a multirole fighter jet that has been mentioned as part of the military aid to Ukraine. The script discusses the potential delivery of these jets and the challenges associated with their deployment, including training for Ukrainian pilots.

💡Peace conference

A peace conference is a gathering aimed at facilitating dialogue and negotiations to achieve peace. The script describes a peace conference organized by Ukraine in Switzerland, attended by numerous countries, and Russia's attempts to undermine its significance.

Highlights

June 2024 may be remembered for increased diplomatic efforts around the war in Ukraine.

Russian army's minor breakthrough in Kharkiv oblast followed by a stall due to Western weapon use on Russian targets.

Ukrainian soldiers report a decrease in shell advantage for Russia to a 5-to-1 ratio after Western ammunition arrival.

Russian reinforcement sending to Kharkiv oblast as their offensive hits a wall.

Continued heavy fighting in Chasiv Yar with Ukrainian forces preventing Russian advance.

Russian continuous advance in Donbas despite Ukrainian resistance.

Ukraine reportedly suffering from a manpower shortage in the face of Russian advances.

Russian capture of strategic locations and continued push towards Toretsk in Donbas.

Russian reversal of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive successes with recapture of Staromaiorske.

Tensions rise in North Luhansk with reported Russian reinforcements and equipment sent to the front.

Ukrainian stabilization of the situation despite Russia's strategic advantage.

Dismissal of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol from the command of the Joint Forces of Ukraine.

Russian targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with over half of capacity destroyed or captured.

Ukraine's response by targeting Russian oil refineries and air defense systems.

Uncertainty over the number of F-16s to be given to Ukraine and their arrival timeline.

France's pledge to send Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and train additional Ukrainian soldiers.

U.S. pledges of military and financial aid, including air defense systems and energy grid support.

Germany's major military aid package including tanks, air defense systems, and more.

European Commission's announcement to send 1.5 billion euros from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

South Korea considering sending military aid to Ukraine amidst friendly Russia-North Korea relations.

Ukraine's peace conference in Switzerland with 92 countries attending, excluding Russia.

Russia's public peace offer dismissed as inadequate for negotiations by Ukraine and Western leaders.

Ukrainian peace summit's final statement focusing on global support and future negotiation provisions.

Visually confirmed military losses on both sides as of June 30, compiled by the Oryx blog.

Transcripts

The 28th month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine  goes on, and the end does not appear in sight yet.  

Nevertheless, June 2024 may be remembered for the  intensification of diplomatic activity around the  

war in Ukraine, as Kyiv and Moscow are trying to  persuade the world to buy into their vision of  

future negotiations. Meanwhile, heavy battles  continue raging in Donbas and Kharkiv. This is  

another Kings and Generals update on the  unprovoked Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

BATTLEFIELD After achieving a minor  

breakthrough in the border areas of the Kharkiv  oblast, the Russian army was stalled north of  

Lyptsi and in Vovchansk. The Western permission  to use their weapons against the Russian military  

targets on Russian territory has changed the  situation in the Kharkiv oblast drastically.  

Russians are no longer free to deploy their  military assets in the immediate border areas with  

Ukraine for fear of being struck. This and the  reported arrival of some of the promised Western  

weaponry, including shells, have so far turned  the situation around. Ukrainian soldiers have  

said that Russians still have a shell advantage,  but it has decreased to a 5-to-1 ratio after the  

arrival of Western ammunition. The Russian  command is reportedly sending reinforcements  

to the Kharkiv oblast, but as of late June, their  Kharkiv offensive hit a wall. Some of their units  

may even be encircled in the Aggregate Plant  in Vovchansk, according to different reports. 

Russian attacks on Chasiv Yar do not relent  either. Despite capturing Kalynivka to the north  

of Chasiv Yar in early June, Ukrainian forces  reportedly liberated most of the village very soon  

after that. Most of the fighting in this sector  is going on in Kalynivka, Stupki Holubovksyi  

[wasn’t sure if this should be -skyi, so said it  both ways] to the south of Chasiv Yar and in the  

Kanal microdistrict. The latter is particularly  crucial, since it is within the limits of Chasiv  

Yar. Russians have established a foothold there  since the early days of their offensive, but so  

far, Ukrainians have stood tall, preventing any  meaningful advance on this axis. The situation for  

them is difficult, as Russians regularly launch  attacks, but Ukrainians are standing their ground. 

But that is not the case in some other sectors  of Donbas, where the Russian army has continued  

its creeping but continuous advance. They  expanded the salient around Ocheretyne  

by capturing Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovkse  [assuming -ske this time] and Sokil. Ukraine is  

still reportedly suffering from a manpower  shortage in this axis. Further south,  

Russians continued their advance towards important  logistical nodes by capturing Heorhiivka and  

gaining ground inside Krasnohorivka. They have  also launched another attack in the Horlivka  

sector. In June, the Russian army captured Shumy,  and gained ground around Pivnichne, Pivdenne and  

Niu-York. The most probable target of this  offensive is Toretsk, another important town  

of Donbas. Russians have also continued the  trend of reversing whatever success Ukraine  

gained in its summer counteroffensive. They  have recaptured Staromaiorske and advanced  

around Urozhaine on the Zaporizhia front. Tensions are rising in North Luhansk,  

as the Ukrainian sources have reported about  10000 Russian reinforcements, 200 additional  

artillery systems and 450 vehicles being sent to  this front in order to take another crack at the  

Ukrainian defenses in the region. They have been  unsuccessfully attacking this front for almost a  

year, but the fighting is still largely going  on in the same areas - Synkivka, Stelmakhivka,  

and Serebrianski forest. In June, Russians  made minor progress in this area by capturing  

the villages of Andriivka and Miasozharivka,  but there is no imminent threat of collapse  

for the Ukrainian army here. The 3rd Brigade is  successfully leading the defense of this front.  

So, the trend in recent months has continued  on the battlefield. Russia is attacking in  

different places at the same time, but they only  find success in Donbas. However, the success  

in Donbas is steady and creates a problematic  situation for the Ukrainian army, which is slowly  

retreating to strategically important areas. As stated many times before, Putin is confident  

in his war of attrition. He would love quick  breakthroughs, but he is content with slowly  

bleeding out Ukraine, gradually taking its  territory, and at the same time working  

towards the halting of the Western military aid to  Ukraine. The Russian propaganda machine is working  

hard to weaken the Western consensus on helping  Kyiv, along with spreading doubts about the  

futility of the Ukrainian resistance. Heavy losses  do not trouble the Kremlin and the Russian public,  

which has grown indifferent to the war going on  in Ukraine. So far, Russia has managed to avoid  

large-scale mobilization, by offering good terms  to sign contracts with the military and ensuring  

steady flow of new recruits to the battlefield.  According to the Ukrainian military analyst  

Konstantyn Mashovets, each of the 6 Russian combat  groupings in Ukraine receives 1000-2000 personnel  

every month to compensate for their losses. Putin  has claimed that 160k new men have been recruited  

so far in 2024, but there is no way to verify this  information. Having said that, Ukraine’s situation  

has somewhat improved as well. It seems like they  are past the point of crisis of early 2024, when  

Russia had several months of extreme firepower and  manpower advantage on their side. In that period,  

they were successful in the Avdiivka sector, and  they are still gaining ground in this area. But  

that is about it for their success in this period.  Now, the western military aid is slowly coming in,  

and the manpower shortages are expected to be  less acute due to new mobilization measures  

bearing fruit at some point. Russia still holds  a strategic advantage on the battlefield, but  

Ukraine has managed to stabilize the situation. Another important development was the dismissal  

of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol from the  command of the Joint Forces of Ukraine on  

June 24. A few days before that, he was heavily  and publicly criticized by the chief of staff of  

the Azov Battalion Krotevych. He accused Sodol  of “killing more Ukrainian soldiers than any  

Russian general,” implying heavy losses suffered  by Ukraine in Krynki and in other sectors of the  

battlefield. Apparently, Sodol preferred Soviet  and Russian-style tactics of infantry assaults,  

which inevitably led to high casualties. Losses  that the Ukrainian army, unlike the Russian army,  

cannot afford. Sodol was replaced with  Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov, who, according  

to the Institute for the Study of War, played an  important role in the liberation of the right bank  

Kherson and commanded the defense of Bakhmut. The sides also continued  

exchanging regular long-range fire via missiles  and drones. Russia continued prioritizing  

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in June, too. The  Ukrainian authorities are already forced to switch  

off power from households and other entities for  saving purposes. According to the Financial Times,  

Russia has destroyed or captured more than half  of Ukraine’s energy generation capacity. There are  

two main goals pursued by the Russians here. The  first is putting a strain on Ukraine’s industrial  

capacity, particularly its defense industry.  The second is wearing down the Ukrainian public.  

Ukrainians are still overwhelmingly in favor of  fighting against Russians, and Putin hopes that  

the destruction of Ukraine’s energy capacity will  turn the people against the Ukrainian government.  

So far, this has not worked. Ukraine keeps  responding by targeting Russia’s oil refineries,  

along with their air defense systems in Crimea.  The latter is particularly interesting given  

that Ukraine looks very, very far from liberating  Crimea at this point. But Ukraine keeps targeting  

S-300 and S-400 air defense systems in the  peninsula and elsewhere in the occupied areas.  

ATACMS long-range missiles are often used for  this purpose, which shows that this is one of the  

priority targets for the Ukrainian command. There  is an argument that this is done in preparation  

for the arrival of F-16s. Indeed, F-16s would  obviously have much more operational freedom,  

if they were not harassed by the Russian air  defense. Ukraine also reportedly damaged two  

of Russia’s most modern Su-57 fighter jets  for the first time in this war. This may also  

be a part of the deliberate strategy to clean  up the skies for the arrival of western jets.

FOREIGN AID Speaking of  

F-16s and western jets. There is still no  clarity regarding the exact number of F-16s  

to be given to Ukraine and when they will roughly  arrive. Politico reported that Denmark, Norway,  

the Netherlands and Belgium plan to send more than  60 jets this summer. The delay is partly caused by  

the reported lack of capacity of facilities for  training of Ukrainian pilots. Again, these are  

some of the issues that seem perfectly solvable,  but instead, they continue hindering Ukraine  

from fighting to its maximum potential. In his  interview, the chief of aviation of the Ukrainian  

air force, Golubtsov, stated that Ukraine will  receive around 10 F-16 jets this year, and the  

rest will remain in NATO countries. But now, the  F-16 is not going to be the only Western jet to  

be sent to Ukraine. On June 6, French President  Macron pledged to send an unspecified number of  

Mirage 2000-5 fourth-generation fighter jets by  the end of the year. The training of pilots is  

expected to take 5-6 months. The main advantage  of Mirage jets for Ukraine is that they can carry  

Storm Shadow long-range missiles, unlike F-16s,  which are not compatible with them. Moreover,  

when Biden and Zelenskyi signed a 10-year security  deal, Ukraine’s president stated that the deal  

envisaged provisions of jets, but “not only F-16”.  So, there may be other jets to be sent to Ukraine,  

but this will happen later, definitely not in  2024. The United States also pledged more HAWK  

air defense system missiles, Stinger missiles,  TOW missiles, HIMARS ammunition, artillery shells,  

M113 armored personnel carriers, and Javelin  anti-tank guns worth 225 million dollars. The  

US Vice President Harris stated during the Peace  Summit in Switzerland that they are allocating 1.5  

billion dollars of aid to Ukraine’s energy grid  and to their humanitarian needs. Along with that,  

the New York Times reported that the United  States will ensure the arrival of another Patriot  

system in Ukraine in the upcoming days. This has  not yet been officially announced or confirmed. In  

other news, the US national security spokesperson  Kirby stated on June 20 that from now on the US  

is going to prioritize the sending of Patriot  missiles straight to Ukraine as soon as they  

are manufactured. Italy has pledged another  SAMP/T air defense system, while on June 20,  

Romania announced its decision to send another  Patriot system to Ukraine. Another Patriot system  

was promised by the Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa  Ollongren a few days later. Protecting the air  

against increasing missile and drone attacks is  one of the priorities for Kyiv, and its allies are  

answering the call. Germany announced another  major military aid package on June 14, which  

includes 10 Leopard 1A1 tanks, 20 Marder vehicles,  IRIS-T air defense systems, 3 HIMARS, demining,  

engineering and bridge laying vehicles, shells  and small arms. After promising the aforementioned  

Mirage jets, France also made commitments to  train an additional 4500 Ukrainian soldiers, along  

with providing 200 million euros for financing  Ukraine's critical infrastructure. On June 11,  

the European Commission president von der Leyen  announced that 1.5 billion euros of proceeds from  

frozen Russian assets will be sent to Ukraine in  July. 90% of this sum will be spent on defense,  

and 10% on reconstruction. Ukraine also signed a  10-year security deal with Japan, which envisages  

the latter providing 4.5 billion dollars worth  of aid to Kyiv in 2024. Lastly, a very important,  

yet unconfirmed news is coming from South  Korea. Sources from the South Korean  

presidential administration indicate that Seoul  is considering sending shells and air defense  

systems to Ukraine in response to increasingly  friendly relations between Russia and North Korea,  

which we are going to talk about in a bit. On  the one hand, South Korea has been trying to  

avoid taking sides in the war in Ukraine, but  on the other hand, they were also reportedly  

persuaded to give Kyiv artillery shells on the eve  of its summer counteroffensive. South Korea is one  

of the most war-ready countries in the world and  if they finally decide to put away their caution  

and start supporting Ukraine more strongly, it  may have important implications for the war. 

Their chief adversary, North Korea, has been  the main supporter of Russia in this war,  

along with Iran. According to the South  Korean minister of defense, North Korea  

has already sent almost 5 million shells to  Russia. On June 19, Putin signed a strategic  

partnership agreement with Kim Jong Un during his  visit to Pyongyang. The agreement envisages mutual  

assistance in the event of aggression against  either side. Its text has not been made public,  

but one may assume that it contains provisions  related to North Korean weapons being sent to  

Russia. We shall see. The agreement has already  created rumors about the deployment of North  

Korean engineering forces in Ukraine, but  Western authorities have denied these claims.

UKRAINE’S PEACE CONFERENCE  AND RUSSIA’S PEACE OFFER 

One of the main talking points of June  was Ukraine’s peace conference organized  

in Switzerland on June 15-16. It was attended by  92 countries, including by countries like Saudi  

Arabia, India, which have been largely neutral  in this war. Predictably, Russia was not invited.  

Also, predictably, Russia did everything  in its power to weaken the significance  

of the summit and to steal its thunder. They  had reportedly asked China to use its global  

influence to prevent countries on good terms with  Beijing from taking part in the conference. Putin  

also publicly made his peace offer, but maybe  its inadequacy as a viable starting point for  

negotiations will finally show to the “let’s talk  with Putin” camp that Putin feels in control and  

that his negotiation rhetoric is not serious.  He will talk only if the Ukrainians essentially  

agree to a surrender. And make no mistake, that is  what his terms are. The demand is for Ukraine to  

give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia  oblasts. Even the parts Russia does not control  

at the moment. So, Zelenskyi and western leaders  briefly talked about this so-called proposal but  

obviously dismissed it. The final statement of  the Ukrainian peace summit focused on provisions  

that had a higher chance of gaining wider global  support. It included the demand to return the  

Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to Ukrainian  control, along with calling for “free, full  

and safe” access to the Black Sea ports, return  of all Ukrainian citizens, including children  

forcefully taken to Russia, and exchange of all  prisoners of war. There were not many expectations  

from this summit, but overall, Ukraine did well to  demonstrate global support to its cause. Ukrainian  

and Western leaders also talked sitting at the  same table with Russia eventually to talk about  

ending this war somehow, and about the possibility  of inviting Russia to the second peace summit.

OUTRO These statements are a  

positive development, but realistically speaking,  Ukraine and Russia remain far from arriving at  

any meaningful common ground. However, wars are  unpredictable, and what appears unlikely today may  

become the most expected outcome in a few months.  For now, let’s look at the visually confirmed  

losses on both sides compiled by the Oryx blog. As  of June 30, Russia has lost at least 3180 tanks,  

6960 armored vehicles, 282 command posts and  communication stations, 1273 artillery systems  

and vehicles, 387 multiple rocket launchers,  119 aircraft and 138 helicopters. Ukraine has  

lost at least 858 tanks, 2681 armored vehicles,  19 command posts and communication stations,  

596 artillery systems and vehicles, 72 multiple  rocket launchers, 92 aircraft and 46 helicopters. 

Further updates on the War in Ukraine are on  the way. To make sure you don’t miss them,  

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