Meatgrinder Continues - Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Summary
TLDRIn the 28th month of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, diplomatic efforts intensify as both sides push for global support. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces face a Russian advance in Donbas and Kharkiv, yet Western aid helps stabilize the situation. The Ukrainian peace conference in Switzerland garners international support, while Russia's peace offer is dismissed as insincere. Meanwhile, foreign military aid to Ukraine, including potential F-16s and Mirage 2000-5 jets, continues to shape the conflict's dynamics.
Takeaways
- 🌍 The 28th month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues with no end in sight, and June 2024 sees increased diplomatic efforts by both Kyiv and Moscow.
- 🛡️ Ukrainian forces have reported a reduction in the shelling advantage of the Russians to a 5-to-1 ratio following the arrival of Western ammunition.
- 🏹 Despite minor territorial gains by Russia in the Kharkiv oblast, the Ukrainian army has managed to stall the Russian offensive and even encircle some units.
- 🔥 Heavy fighting persists in the Donbas region, with the Russian army making a steady but slow advance, capturing key areas and putting pressure on Ukraine's manpower.
- 📉 Russia's strategy involves attrition, slowly bleeding Ukraine out through continuous attacks and territorial gains, while avoiding large-scale mobilization at home.
- 🔄 There has been a significant change in Ukrainian command with the dismissal of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol and his replacement by Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov.
- 💣 Russia continues to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure, aiming to strain industrial capacity and wear down the Ukrainian public's resolve.
- 🛬 There is ongoing discussion and uncertainty regarding the provision of F-16 fighter jets and other Western military aid to Ukraine, with commitments but delayed implementation.
- 🤝 International support for Ukraine is demonstrated through various pledges of military and financial aid, including from the US, Italy, France, and potential South Korean involvement.
- 🕊️ Ukraine held a peace conference in Switzerland, emphasizing global support for its cause and discussing the possibility of future negotiations with Russia.
- ⚔️ The conflict remains unresolved with significant losses on both sides, and while diplomatic efforts are increasing, the path to peace is still uncertain.
Q & A
What significant event is the 28th month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine associated with?
-The 28th month is associated with the intensification of diplomatic activity around the war in Ukraine, with both Kyiv and Moscow attempting to influence global perspectives on future negotiations.
How has the Western permission to use weapons against Russian military targets on Russian territory affected the situation in Kharkiv oblast?
-The Western permission has drastically changed the situation in Kharkiv oblast, limiting the Russian military's freedom to deploy assets in border areas with Ukraine due to the fear of being struck, and contributing to a turnaround in the situation with the reported arrival of Western weaponry.
What is the current state of the shell advantage according to Ukrainian soldiers?
-Ukrainian soldiers report that although the Russians still have a shell advantage, it has decreased to a 5-to-1 ratio after the arrival of Western ammunition.
What is the situation regarding the Russian offensive in Kharkiv as of late June?
-As of late June, the Russian Kharkiv offensive has hit a wall, with some units potentially encircled in the Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk, according to various reports.
What is the significance of the Kanal microdistrict in the ongoing fighting?
-The Kanal microdistrict is crucial as it is within the limits of Chasiv Yar. Despite Russian attempts to advance, Ukrainians have managed to prevent any meaningful progress in this area.
What is the general trend of the Russian army's advance in Donbas?
-The Russian army has continued a steady and creeping advance in Donbas, capturing several key areas and putting pressure on important logistical nodes.
What recent development indicates a potential shift in South Korea's stance towards the conflict?
-South Korea is reportedly considering sending shells and air defense systems to Ukraine due to increasingly friendly relations between Russia and North Korea, indicating a potential shift from their previous neutral stance.
What was the main goal of Ukraine's peace conference held in Switzerland?
-The main goal of Ukraine's peace conference was to demonstrate global support for Ukraine's cause and to discuss provisions that could gain wider international consensus, such as the return of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to Ukrainian control and ensuring safe access to Black Sea ports.
What are the two main goals of Russia's targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure?
-The two main goals are to strain Ukraine's industrial capacity, particularly its defense industry, and to wear down the Ukrainian public in an attempt to turn them against the Ukrainian government.
What is the significance of the reported damage to Russia's Su-57 fighter jets by Ukraine?
-The damage to Russia's Su-57 fighter jets is significant as it may be part of a deliberate strategy by Ukraine to clear the skies for the potential arrival of Western jets, such as the F-16s.
What are the implications of the strategic partnership agreement signed between Russia and North Korea?
-The strategic partnership agreement implies mutual assistance in the event of aggression and may contain provisions for North Korean weapons being sent to Russia, potentially increasing Russia's military capabilities in the conflict.
Outlines
🌍 Intensifying Diplomatic Efforts and Ongoing Battles in Ukraine
June 2024 marks a significant month in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a focus on heightened diplomatic activities and continuous heavy fighting, particularly in Donbas and Kharkiv. Ukrainian and Russian forces are attempting to influence global perspectives on future negotiations. Despite minor advances, the Russian army faces challenges due to Western weapon provisions to Ukraine, which have altered the dynamics on the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers report a reduction in the shelling advantage of the Russians, now at a 5-to-1 ratio. The situation in Kharkiv has drastically changed, with Russian forces no longer freely deploying assets near the Ukrainian border for fear of Western strikes. However, the Russian military continues to make a slow but steady advance in other sectors of Donbas, causing a problematic situation for the Ukrainian army, which is gradually retreating to strategic areas.
📉 Russian and Ukrainian Military Developments Amidst Futility of Resistance
The Russian public and the Kremlin remain indifferent to the heavy losses in Ukraine, with Russia managing to avoid large-scale mobilization by recruiting new soldiers. Ukrainian military analyst Konstantyn Mashovets reports a constant flow of 1000-2000 personnel to Russian combat groupings each month. Ukraine's situation has improved since the crisis of early 2024, with Western military aid and new mobilization measures helping to stabilize the situation. The dismissal of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol from the command of the Joint Forces of Ukraine and his replacement with Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov marks a significant change in military leadership. Both sides continue to exchange long-range fire via missiles and drones, with Russia targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, aiming to strain industrial capacity and wear down the public. Despite this, Ukraine remains resilient, targeting Russia's oil refineries and air defense systems in Crimea.
🛫 Western Military Aid and the Prospect of Advanced Fighter Jets for Ukraine
Western military aid continues to be a critical factor in Ukraine's defense, with reports of Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium planning to send over 60 jets, including F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s, to Ukraine. Training facilities for Ukrainian pilots are a current challenge. The US has pledged additional military support, including HAWK air defense system missiles and other equipment, as well as financial aid for Ukraine's energy grid and humanitarian needs. Italy, Romania, and the Netherlands have also committed to providing air defense systems. Germany's military aid package includes tanks, vehicles, and air defense systems. France has pledged financial support and training for Ukrainian soldiers. The European Commission plans to send funds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, and Japan has signed a 10-year security deal with Ukraine, promising significant financial aid. South Korea is considering sending military aid to Ukraine, influenced by Russia's growing relations with North Korea, which has been a main supporter of Russia in the conflict.
🕊️ Ukraine's Peace Conference and Russia's Inadequate Peace Offer
Ukraine organized a peace conference in Switzerland, attended by 92 countries, to discuss the ongoing war and potential paths to peace. Russia was not invited, and the summit focused on gaining global support for Ukraine's demands, including the return of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to Ukrainian control, safe access to Black Sea ports, the return of Ukrainian citizens, and the exchange of prisoners of war. Western leaders and Ukraine acknowledged the need for future negotiations with Russia but dismissed Putin's peace offer, which essentially demanded Ukraine's surrender by giving up significant territories. The summit demonstrated global support for Ukraine's cause and discussed the possibility of a second peace summit, potentially including Russia.
📊 Visual Confirmation of Military Losses in the War
The Oryx blog has compiled visually confirmed military losses for both Russia and Ukraine as of June 30. Russia has suffered significant losses, including over 3180 tanks, 6960 armored vehicles, 282 command posts, 1273 artillery systems, 387 multiple rocket launchers, 119 aircraft, and 138 helicopters. Ukraine's losses are also substantial, with at least 858 tanks, 2681 armored vehicles, 19 command posts, 596 artillery systems, 72 multiple rocket launchers, 92 aircraft, and 46 helicopters. The Kings and Generals channel promises further updates on the war and encourages viewers to subscribe and engage with their content for exclusive updates and insights.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Russian invasion of Ukraine
💡Diplomatic activity
💡Kharkiv oblast
💡Western weaponry
💡Donbas
💡Manpower shortage
💡War of attrition
💡Energy infrastructure
💡Foreign aid
💡F-16
💡Peace conference
Highlights
June 2024 may be remembered for increased diplomatic efforts around the war in Ukraine.
Russian army's minor breakthrough in Kharkiv oblast followed by a stall due to Western weapon use on Russian targets.
Ukrainian soldiers report a decrease in shell advantage for Russia to a 5-to-1 ratio after Western ammunition arrival.
Russian reinforcement sending to Kharkiv oblast as their offensive hits a wall.
Continued heavy fighting in Chasiv Yar with Ukrainian forces preventing Russian advance.
Russian continuous advance in Donbas despite Ukrainian resistance.
Ukraine reportedly suffering from a manpower shortage in the face of Russian advances.
Russian capture of strategic locations and continued push towards Toretsk in Donbas.
Russian reversal of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive successes with recapture of Staromaiorske.
Tensions rise in North Luhansk with reported Russian reinforcements and equipment sent to the front.
Ukrainian stabilization of the situation despite Russia's strategic advantage.
Dismissal of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol from the command of the Joint Forces of Ukraine.
Russian targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with over half of capacity destroyed or captured.
Ukraine's response by targeting Russian oil refineries and air defense systems.
Uncertainty over the number of F-16s to be given to Ukraine and their arrival timeline.
France's pledge to send Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and train additional Ukrainian soldiers.
U.S. pledges of military and financial aid, including air defense systems and energy grid support.
Germany's major military aid package including tanks, air defense systems, and more.
European Commission's announcement to send 1.5 billion euros from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
South Korea considering sending military aid to Ukraine amidst friendly Russia-North Korea relations.
Ukraine's peace conference in Switzerland with 92 countries attending, excluding Russia.
Russia's public peace offer dismissed as inadequate for negotiations by Ukraine and Western leaders.
Ukrainian peace summit's final statement focusing on global support and future negotiation provisions.
Visually confirmed military losses on both sides as of June 30, compiled by the Oryx blog.
Transcripts
The 28th month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine goes on, and the end does not appear in sight yet.
Nevertheless, June 2024 may be remembered for the intensification of diplomatic activity around the
war in Ukraine, as Kyiv and Moscow are trying to persuade the world to buy into their vision of
future negotiations. Meanwhile, heavy battles continue raging in Donbas and Kharkiv. This is
another Kings and Generals update on the unprovoked Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
BATTLEFIELD After achieving a minor
breakthrough in the border areas of the Kharkiv oblast, the Russian army was stalled north of
Lyptsi and in Vovchansk. The Western permission to use their weapons against the Russian military
targets on Russian territory has changed the situation in the Kharkiv oblast drastically.
Russians are no longer free to deploy their military assets in the immediate border areas with
Ukraine for fear of being struck. This and the reported arrival of some of the promised Western
weaponry, including shells, have so far turned the situation around. Ukrainian soldiers have
said that Russians still have a shell advantage, but it has decreased to a 5-to-1 ratio after the
arrival of Western ammunition. The Russian command is reportedly sending reinforcements
to the Kharkiv oblast, but as of late June, their Kharkiv offensive hit a wall. Some of their units
may even be encircled in the Aggregate Plant in Vovchansk, according to different reports.
Russian attacks on Chasiv Yar do not relent either. Despite capturing Kalynivka to the north
of Chasiv Yar in early June, Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated most of the village very soon
after that. Most of the fighting in this sector is going on in Kalynivka, Stupki Holubovksyi
[wasn’t sure if this should be -skyi, so said it both ways] to the south of Chasiv Yar and in the
Kanal microdistrict. The latter is particularly crucial, since it is within the limits of Chasiv
Yar. Russians have established a foothold there since the early days of their offensive, but so
far, Ukrainians have stood tall, preventing any meaningful advance on this axis. The situation for
them is difficult, as Russians regularly launch attacks, but Ukrainians are standing their ground.
But that is not the case in some other sectors of Donbas, where the Russian army has continued
its creeping but continuous advance. They expanded the salient around Ocheretyne
by capturing Novooleksandrivka, Novopokrovkse [assuming -ske this time] and Sokil. Ukraine is
still reportedly suffering from a manpower shortage in this axis. Further south,
Russians continued their advance towards important logistical nodes by capturing Heorhiivka and
gaining ground inside Krasnohorivka. They have also launched another attack in the Horlivka
sector. In June, the Russian army captured Shumy, and gained ground around Pivnichne, Pivdenne and
Niu-York. The most probable target of this offensive is Toretsk, another important town
of Donbas. Russians have also continued the trend of reversing whatever success Ukraine
gained in its summer counteroffensive. They have recaptured Staromaiorske and advanced
around Urozhaine on the Zaporizhia front. Tensions are rising in North Luhansk,
as the Ukrainian sources have reported about 10000 Russian reinforcements, 200 additional
artillery systems and 450 vehicles being sent to this front in order to take another crack at the
Ukrainian defenses in the region. They have been unsuccessfully attacking this front for almost a
year, but the fighting is still largely going on in the same areas - Synkivka, Stelmakhivka,
and Serebrianski forest. In June, Russians made minor progress in this area by capturing
the villages of Andriivka and Miasozharivka, but there is no imminent threat of collapse
for the Ukrainian army here. The 3rd Brigade is successfully leading the defense of this front.
So, the trend in recent months has continued on the battlefield. Russia is attacking in
different places at the same time, but they only find success in Donbas. However, the success
in Donbas is steady and creates a problematic situation for the Ukrainian army, which is slowly
retreating to strategically important areas. As stated many times before, Putin is confident
in his war of attrition. He would love quick breakthroughs, but he is content with slowly
bleeding out Ukraine, gradually taking its territory, and at the same time working
towards the halting of the Western military aid to Ukraine. The Russian propaganda machine is working
hard to weaken the Western consensus on helping Kyiv, along with spreading doubts about the
futility of the Ukrainian resistance. Heavy losses do not trouble the Kremlin and the Russian public,
which has grown indifferent to the war going on in Ukraine. So far, Russia has managed to avoid
large-scale mobilization, by offering good terms to sign contracts with the military and ensuring
steady flow of new recruits to the battlefield. According to the Ukrainian military analyst
Konstantyn Mashovets, each of the 6 Russian combat groupings in Ukraine receives 1000-2000 personnel
every month to compensate for their losses. Putin has claimed that 160k new men have been recruited
so far in 2024, but there is no way to verify this information. Having said that, Ukraine’s situation
has somewhat improved as well. It seems like they are past the point of crisis of early 2024, when
Russia had several months of extreme firepower and manpower advantage on their side. In that period,
they were successful in the Avdiivka sector, and they are still gaining ground in this area. But
that is about it for their success in this period. Now, the western military aid is slowly coming in,
and the manpower shortages are expected to be less acute due to new mobilization measures
bearing fruit at some point. Russia still holds a strategic advantage on the battlefield, but
Ukraine has managed to stabilize the situation. Another important development was the dismissal
of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol from the command of the Joint Forces of Ukraine on
June 24. A few days before that, he was heavily and publicly criticized by the chief of staff of
the Azov Battalion Krotevych. He accused Sodol of “killing more Ukrainian soldiers than any
Russian general,” implying heavy losses suffered by Ukraine in Krynki and in other sectors of the
battlefield. Apparently, Sodol preferred Soviet and Russian-style tactics of infantry assaults,
which inevitably led to high casualties. Losses that the Ukrainian army, unlike the Russian army,
cannot afford. Sodol was replaced with Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov, who, according
to the Institute for the Study of War, played an important role in the liberation of the right bank
Kherson and commanded the defense of Bakhmut. The sides also continued
exchanging regular long-range fire via missiles and drones. Russia continued prioritizing
Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in June, too. The Ukrainian authorities are already forced to switch
off power from households and other entities for saving purposes. According to the Financial Times,
Russia has destroyed or captured more than half of Ukraine’s energy generation capacity. There are
two main goals pursued by the Russians here. The first is putting a strain on Ukraine’s industrial
capacity, particularly its defense industry. The second is wearing down the Ukrainian public.
Ukrainians are still overwhelmingly in favor of fighting against Russians, and Putin hopes that
the destruction of Ukraine’s energy capacity will turn the people against the Ukrainian government.
So far, this has not worked. Ukraine keeps responding by targeting Russia’s oil refineries,
along with their air defense systems in Crimea. The latter is particularly interesting given
that Ukraine looks very, very far from liberating Crimea at this point. But Ukraine keeps targeting
S-300 and S-400 air defense systems in the peninsula and elsewhere in the occupied areas.
ATACMS long-range missiles are often used for this purpose, which shows that this is one of the
priority targets for the Ukrainian command. There is an argument that this is done in preparation
for the arrival of F-16s. Indeed, F-16s would obviously have much more operational freedom,
if they were not harassed by the Russian air defense. Ukraine also reportedly damaged two
of Russia’s most modern Su-57 fighter jets for the first time in this war. This may also
be a part of the deliberate strategy to clean up the skies for the arrival of western jets.
FOREIGN AID Speaking of
F-16s and western jets. There is still no clarity regarding the exact number of F-16s
to be given to Ukraine and when they will roughly arrive. Politico reported that Denmark, Norway,
the Netherlands and Belgium plan to send more than 60 jets this summer. The delay is partly caused by
the reported lack of capacity of facilities for training of Ukrainian pilots. Again, these are
some of the issues that seem perfectly solvable, but instead, they continue hindering Ukraine
from fighting to its maximum potential. In his interview, the chief of aviation of the Ukrainian
air force, Golubtsov, stated that Ukraine will receive around 10 F-16 jets this year, and the
rest will remain in NATO countries. But now, the F-16 is not going to be the only Western jet to
be sent to Ukraine. On June 6, French President Macron pledged to send an unspecified number of
Mirage 2000-5 fourth-generation fighter jets by the end of the year. The training of pilots is
expected to take 5-6 months. The main advantage of Mirage jets for Ukraine is that they can carry
Storm Shadow long-range missiles, unlike F-16s, which are not compatible with them. Moreover,
when Biden and Zelenskyi signed a 10-year security deal, Ukraine’s president stated that the deal
envisaged provisions of jets, but “not only F-16”. So, there may be other jets to be sent to Ukraine,
but this will happen later, definitely not in 2024. The United States also pledged more HAWK
air defense system missiles, Stinger missiles, TOW missiles, HIMARS ammunition, artillery shells,
M113 armored personnel carriers, and Javelin anti-tank guns worth 225 million dollars. The
US Vice President Harris stated during the Peace Summit in Switzerland that they are allocating 1.5
billion dollars of aid to Ukraine’s energy grid and to their humanitarian needs. Along with that,
the New York Times reported that the United States will ensure the arrival of another Patriot
system in Ukraine in the upcoming days. This has not yet been officially announced or confirmed. In
other news, the US national security spokesperson Kirby stated on June 20 that from now on the US
is going to prioritize the sending of Patriot missiles straight to Ukraine as soon as they
are manufactured. Italy has pledged another SAMP/T air defense system, while on June 20,
Romania announced its decision to send another Patriot system to Ukraine. Another Patriot system
was promised by the Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren a few days later. Protecting the air
against increasing missile and drone attacks is one of the priorities for Kyiv, and its allies are
answering the call. Germany announced another major military aid package on June 14, which
includes 10 Leopard 1A1 tanks, 20 Marder vehicles, IRIS-T air defense systems, 3 HIMARS, demining,
engineering and bridge laying vehicles, shells and small arms. After promising the aforementioned
Mirage jets, France also made commitments to train an additional 4500 Ukrainian soldiers, along
with providing 200 million euros for financing Ukraine's critical infrastructure. On June 11,
the European Commission president von der Leyen announced that 1.5 billion euros of proceeds from
frozen Russian assets will be sent to Ukraine in July. 90% of this sum will be spent on defense,
and 10% on reconstruction. Ukraine also signed a 10-year security deal with Japan, which envisages
the latter providing 4.5 billion dollars worth of aid to Kyiv in 2024. Lastly, a very important,
yet unconfirmed news is coming from South Korea. Sources from the South Korean
presidential administration indicate that Seoul is considering sending shells and air defense
systems to Ukraine in response to increasingly friendly relations between Russia and North Korea,
which we are going to talk about in a bit. On the one hand, South Korea has been trying to
avoid taking sides in the war in Ukraine, but on the other hand, they were also reportedly
persuaded to give Kyiv artillery shells on the eve of its summer counteroffensive. South Korea is one
of the most war-ready countries in the world and if they finally decide to put away their caution
and start supporting Ukraine more strongly, it may have important implications for the war.
Their chief adversary, North Korea, has been the main supporter of Russia in this war,
along with Iran. According to the South Korean minister of defense, North Korea
has already sent almost 5 million shells to Russia. On June 19, Putin signed a strategic
partnership agreement with Kim Jong Un during his visit to Pyongyang. The agreement envisages mutual
assistance in the event of aggression against either side. Its text has not been made public,
but one may assume that it contains provisions related to North Korean weapons being sent to
Russia. We shall see. The agreement has already created rumors about the deployment of North
Korean engineering forces in Ukraine, but Western authorities have denied these claims.
UKRAINE’S PEACE CONFERENCE AND RUSSIA’S PEACE OFFER
One of the main talking points of June was Ukraine’s peace conference organized
in Switzerland on June 15-16. It was attended by 92 countries, including by countries like Saudi
Arabia, India, which have been largely neutral in this war. Predictably, Russia was not invited.
Also, predictably, Russia did everything in its power to weaken the significance
of the summit and to steal its thunder. They had reportedly asked China to use its global
influence to prevent countries on good terms with Beijing from taking part in the conference. Putin
also publicly made his peace offer, but maybe its inadequacy as a viable starting point for
negotiations will finally show to the “let’s talk with Putin” camp that Putin feels in control and
that his negotiation rhetoric is not serious. He will talk only if the Ukrainians essentially
agree to a surrender. And make no mistake, that is what his terms are. The demand is for Ukraine to
give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Even the parts Russia does not control
at the moment. So, Zelenskyi and western leaders briefly talked about this so-called proposal but
obviously dismissed it. The final statement of the Ukrainian peace summit focused on provisions
that had a higher chance of gaining wider global support. It included the demand to return the
Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to Ukrainian control, along with calling for “free, full
and safe” access to the Black Sea ports, return of all Ukrainian citizens, including children
forcefully taken to Russia, and exchange of all prisoners of war. There were not many expectations
from this summit, but overall, Ukraine did well to demonstrate global support to its cause. Ukrainian
and Western leaders also talked sitting at the same table with Russia eventually to talk about
ending this war somehow, and about the possibility of inviting Russia to the second peace summit.
OUTRO These statements are a
positive development, but realistically speaking, Ukraine and Russia remain far from arriving at
any meaningful common ground. However, wars are unpredictable, and what appears unlikely today may
become the most expected outcome in a few months. For now, let’s look at the visually confirmed
losses on both sides compiled by the Oryx blog. As of June 30, Russia has lost at least 3180 tanks,
6960 armored vehicles, 282 command posts and communication stations, 1273 artillery systems
and vehicles, 387 multiple rocket launchers, 119 aircraft and 138 helicopters. Ukraine has
lost at least 858 tanks, 2681 armored vehicles, 19 command posts and communication stations,
596 artillery systems and vehicles, 72 multiple rocket launchers, 92 aircraft and 46 helicopters.
Further updates on the War in Ukraine are on the way. To make sure you don’t miss them,
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