Why It’s Unlikely We Will Get An Altcoin Season

Summary

The video script discusses the current state of cryptocurrency markets, emphasizing the importance of key price levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum to attract new investors. It highlights the potential for a slow third quarter and the need for liquidity and hype to drive the market. The speaker also critiques the influence of YouTubers who may mislead viewers with overly bullish content and stresses the importance of market cycles, accumulation phases, and the potential impact of global liquidity and regulatory news on the crypto market.

Takeaways

• 📉 The speaker suggests that altcoin recovery may take time and emphasizes the importance of key levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others to be broken before a significant market turnaround.
• 📅 The script discusses the historical patterns of Bitcoin's performance, indicating that while July has shown potential for a rebound, the speaker is more interested in the market dynamics of October to December.
• 🤔 The speaker expresses concern about the potential misinformation spread by YouTubers, which could lead to poor investment decisions based on the timing and content of the messages.
• 📊 There is an analysis of market cycles, suggesting that the current phase might be accumulation, with a need for liquidity and hype to drive the market forward.
• 🚀 The script mentions positive and bullish news, including the potential impact of an Ethereum ETF and global liquidity, which could influence market sentiment.
• 💡 The speaker highlights the importance of distinguishing between hype and actual market movements, questioning why the price isn't reflecting the bullish news.
• 🔑 The script points out that Bitcoin's dominance is currently high, and the market might be entering a 'Bitcoin season' where Bitcoin outperforms other cryptocurrencies.
• 💰 The discussion includes the potential for a market bottom in June, followed by a retracement and a possible further decline, cautioning investors about the risks of getting caught out by short-term market movements.
• 🔮 The speaker anticipates that the top assets and projects with strong fundamentals, like Chainlink, Cardano, and Polkadot, may attract liquidity in the future.
• 📉 The script warns of the potential for a prolonged downtrend, especially for altcoins, which may not follow Bitcoin's potential bounce due to a lack of liquidity and market interest.
• 📝 The speaker concludes by emphasizing the need for caution and critical analysis of market news and trends, advising against following too many sources to avoid skewed information.

Q & A

What is the speaker's perspective on the current state of altcoins?

The speaker suggests that altcoins might be in a period of stagnation, requiring key levels to be broken before new people and liquidity return to the market.

What does the speaker mean by 'herb mentality'?

The term 'herb mentality' is not explicitly defined in the script, but it likely refers to a mindset of cautious optimism or a strategy for managing investments in a volatile market.

What factors does the speaker believe are necessary for a market rebound?

The speaker mentions the need for liquidity, hype, and elements of scarcity, as well as positive, bullish news to stimulate a market rebound.

What is the speaker's view on the potential timing of the next market movement?

The speaker suggests that while some predict a rebound in July based on historical patterns, they are more interested in the potential movements in the latter half of the year, particularly October, November, and December.

What does the speaker think about the role of YouTubers in the cryptocurrency market?

The speaker criticizes some YouTubers for potentially spreading misleading information that could compromise investors' positions due to the timing of their messages.

What historical pattern does the speaker refer to regarding Bitcoin's performance in the summer months?

The speaker refers to a historical pattern where Bitcoin often experiences a period of inactivity during the summer months, with more significant movements happening later in the year.

What is the significance of the 'accumulation zone' mentioned by the speaker?

The 'accumulation zone' signifies a period where Bitcoin is being accumulated, potentially at lower prices, indicating a phase in the market cycle that could precede a price increase.

What does the speaker suggest about the future of altcoin seasons?

The speaker implies that altcoin seasons may not be imminent, as the market needs to break key levels first, and they express skepticism about the current bullish sentiment.

What is the speaker's opinion on the importance of liquidity in the market?

The speaker emphasizes that liquidity is crucial for market movements and that without it, the price of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, may not move as expected.

What potential event does the speaker mention that could affect Ethereum's market performance?

The speaker refers to the possibility of an Ethereum ETF, which could introduce new liquidity and interest into the market, potentially affecting Ethereum's price.

What does the speaker mean by 'the strongest and the fittest will survive' in the context of cryptocurrencies?

The speaker suggests that in a market with limited liquidity, only the top cryptocurrencies with strong fundamentals and support are likely to thrive, while lesser-known coins may struggle.

How does the speaker view the role of news in influencing the cryptocurrency market?

The speaker acknowledges that while positive news can be bullish, the market price does not always reflect this, indicating that other factors such as liquidity and market sentiment also play significant roles.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Crypto Market Analysis and Potential Altcoin Season

The speaker discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the need for key levels to be broken for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major coins to attract new investors and liquidity. They mention the possibility of a boring Q3 but highlight historical patterns suggesting a potential Bitcoin rebound in July. The speaker also warns against misinformation from YouTubers and stresses the importance of market cycles, liquidity, and elements of scarcity in driving the market.

05:01

🤔 Market Cycles and Accumulation Phases

This paragraph delves into the potential accumulation zones for Bitcoin, suggesting that the current market conditions might be indicative of a bottoming phase. The speaker speculates on the impact of potential rate cuts and other market factors, such as bank bankruptcies or SEC actions, on liquidity. They predict that the top assets and coins with strong fundamentals will likely survive and thrive, while the altcoin market may struggle unless key levels are breached.

10:04

📈 Speculation on Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Behavior

The speaker provides a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's historical performance, particularly during summer months, and suggests that a similar pattern might occur, with a possible run before a subsequent pullback. They discuss the dominance of Bitcoin in the current market and the potential for an altcoin season, but caution that the timing is difficult to predict accurately. The speaker also touches on the importance of market sentiment and the role of news in influencing price movements.

15:04

🚫 Caution Against Misleading Crypto Market Predictions

In this paragraph, the speaker warns about the potential for misleading information on YouTube, especially regarding bullish predictions that may not materialize. They emphasize the importance of being cautious and not following too many sources to avoid skewed information that could lead to poor investment decisions. The speaker also reflects on their own content creation, expressing a preference for psychological and technical analysis videos over speculative ones.

📉 Analyzing the Downtrend of Altcoins and Market Outlook

The speaker discusses the current downtrend of altcoins against Bitcoin, suggesting that the market may continue to face challenges unless key resistance levels are broken. They mention the potential impact of an Ethereum ETF and other market-moving events, while also considering the possibility of a prolonged downtrend that could extend into the start of the previous bull market. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of patience and careful analysis in the crypto market.

Keywords

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin. They represent a diverse range of digital assets that investors and traders consider alongside Bitcoin. In the video, the speaker discusses the potential for altcoin growth and market dynamics, noting that altcoin seasons may not be imminent and that key levels need to be broken for significant movement.

💡Bullish

Bullish refers to a positive sentiment or outlook on the market, expecting prices to rise. The script mentions 'bullish news' and a 'bullish trend', indicating optimism about the future performance of cryptocurrencies, despite current market conditions.

💡Key Levels

Key levels in trading are specific price points that have historical significance and can influence future price movements. The speaker emphasizes the importance of breaking these levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc., before significant market changes can occur.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold in the market without affecting their price. The script discusses the need for liquidity to drive market hype and price increases, suggesting that without it, the market may remain stagnant.

💡Scarcity

Scarcity in economics is the state where the demand for a resource exceeds its supply. The video mentions elements of scarcity as a factor that could influence the cryptocurrency market, implying that limited availability could drive up the value of certain assets.

💡Accumulation Zone

An accumulation zone in technical analysis is a price range where buying pressure is stronger than selling pressure, leading to an increase in asset accumulation by investors. The video suggests that Bitcoin might be in such a zone, indicating a potential build-up before a price rise.

💡Dominance

In the context of cryptocurrencies, dominance refers to the market share of a particular coin, often Bitcoin, in relation to the total cryptocurrency market. The script discusses Bitcoin's dominance and how it affects the performance of other coins.

💡Market Cycles

Market cycles refer to the recurring patterns of economic activity over time, typically consisting of periods of expansion and contraction. The video talks about the potential we are in an accumulation phase of the market cycle, which could precede a rise in prices.

💡Fibonacci Levels

Fibonacci levels are a set of ratios used in trading to identify potential support and resistance levels. The script mentions the 618 and 382 Fibonacci levels, discussing how they could act as key resistance or support zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

💡All Season

All Season in the context of the video refers to a period when altcoins experience significant growth, often following a strong performance from Bitcoin. The speaker suggests that such a season may not be imminent due to various market factors.

💡ETF

ETF stands for Exchange-Traded Fund, which is a type of investment fund traded on stock exchanges. The script discusses the potential impact of an Ethereum ETF and possibly a Bitcoin ETF on the market, suggesting they could be significant bullish catalysts.

Highlights

Altcoins might take a while to show significant movement despite positive news and bullish sentiment.

Key levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others need to be broken to attract new investors and liquidity.

Q3 could be uneventful, cautioning against misinformation from YouTubers that could compromise investment positions.

Historical data suggests a potential Bitcoin rebound in July, supported by strong data.

Market patterns show a tendency for a bottom in June, followed by a retrace and possibly a further decline, which could catch investors off guard.

Current market conditions indicate a strong Bitcoin narrative with high dominance and other coins not performing as well.

Bitcoin is in a potential accumulation zone, which is important for understanding market cycles and distribution.

Scarcity and demand can be a slow process, cautioning against the expectation of immediate market changes.

Liquidity and global economic factors, such as potential bank bankruptcies or SEC actions, could significantly impact the market.

The top 50 cryptocurrencies are expected to perform well, with the rest struggling due to limited liquidity.

Certain assets like Chainlink, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche might benefit from future ETF speculations and Coinbase Futures listings.

Market cycles suggest we are in an accumulation phase, with the potential for a significant markup yet to come.

Altcoins are currently underperforming against Bitcoin, indicating a tough market for altcoin investors.

YouTube content creators may unintentionally skew the market message, leading to potential misinformation.

The speaker plans to change video formats to be neater and more focused on providing quality content.

The total market cap without Ethereum and Bitcoin paints a less optimistic picture, suggesting potential consolidation or decline.

The speaker expresses frustration with the current state of YouTube and the misinformation it can spread, affecting viewer decisions.

The importance of breaking key market levels for altcoins to trigger an alt season is emphasized, with current indicators not being favorable.

The potential for a downtrend in the total market cap to Bitcoin chart, suggesting a possible regression to previous bull market levels.

Transcripts

so as good as some of the news actually

is with altcoins what if this is going

to take a while for it to happen so I've

been talking a lot about herb mentality

I've been talking about the positive

bullish news but I have also been

talking about key levels that I think

especially with Bitcoin ethereum Etc

need to be broken before we start

getting let's just be honest here new

people returning we need liquidity we

need the hype we need elements of

scarcity which we are starting to see

but again Q3 could be absolutely boring

what we don't need is YouTubers

spreading the wrong message at the wrong

time getting you into a position where

it might compromise you I'm going to do

a video on the opposite to what most

people think right now so I covered this

yesterday talking about history suggests

that Bitcoin will Rebound in July and I

don't disagree with that the data is

very strong why I didn't show you was

actually something else later on in said

article we have this now zoomed in a

little bit so you can see it we talk a

lot about the Summers and the summers

are on the most part August is

traditionally a month September is

also relatively most of the time

October November December is what I am

more interested in and we might be

getting that situation again where we've

already had a bit of a run into a summer

every single one of these apart from the

obvious bare markets we have got a

summer of a you know summer period then

a run right run before the summer period

you get the idea similar sort of VI

obviously bare Market again this massive

nuke in the summer similar sort of vibe

here similar sort of vibe here you get

the idea where it's very similar where

often you find there's a bit of a bottom

in June but what I'm more interested in

the fact of is we bottom in June then we

retrace up and then we go even lower

short term or it catches people out

right

I feel if there's going to be a rebound

people will get caught out the reason

why I think that I think that there's

that much information that much news is

bullish news now obviously the ethereum

ETF we can talk about that we could talk

about obviously Global liquidity which

we will talk about but I do think we are

getting to a point where oh my God B

Mark is here but Harvin's only just kind

of been and gone right the reality is

here it is currently Bitcoin season the

Bitcoin narrative is very very strong

bitcoin's hold in station all coins are

not doing much and dominance is still

high we will cover that in more detail

in a second but let's just look at this

so when we look at the obvious here this

probably is a Buy Signal here somewhere

in terms of you buy the lows and you're

waiting for the tops right yeah

obviously the reality is here this is a

history in terms of the past right this

whole region back in the earlier days

and it's kind of obvious the summer was

very much a Bitcoin season all the way

into pretty much August into September

time nothing really happened now we

might be getting that again now I'm not

disputing the fact that we we will get

an all season it's just a matter of fact

it's more it's very hard to time what

timing does give you is you know that

situation where the price gets to a

certain point that hyper returns we've

had that at the start of this year going

down

here this is what the market looks like

now there's some assets that are doing

relatively okay versus Bitcoin you can

see this this is Bitcoin in black and

everything else below it now some stuff

not massively down right even you know

you can see near protocol not down too

much link xapp Etc there's some stuff

that are doing very well ton is the main

one but most of these are actually meme

coins realistically you got obviously

Pepe you got Bonk um obviously B&B is

doing all right ethereum's doing all

right with the ethereum news so yeah

it's um really isn't time for an all

season yet anyways we've also got a look

at what is bitcoin doing now I've got on

my screen and you can't see that just

yet is the rainbow chat now what's

important to note here is Bitcoin is in

a level of potential accumulation Zone

we are ranging and when we talk about

the market cycles and the distribution

of cycles that becomes important so when

we look at this obviously we're at this

kind of level here where this is a

really good situation to look at because

we can look at the Harvin in terms of

the past let's do that Harvin here what

happened oh wow okay not a lot funny

enough we had a weird summer and it kind

of pulled back into this level let's

look at the previous one this one went

lower and then we took a long long long

long time and then we

went again similar sort of situation

here not a lot happens funny enough that

scarcity and demand element is a bit of

a long drawn process it takes time and

this is a problem I have with a lot of

YouTubers at the minute as much as I've

been covering it as well yeah the news

is bullish but the price isn't why isn't

the price moving I've did videos on that

I've did videos around the news but

ultimately why why isn't certain things

happening why when Bitcoin is dropping

why isn't dominance Rising why is the

opposite way around you know when

Bitcoin is pumping why is and dominance

falling you know it's kind whoa okay so

what we are into in my opinion here is

potentially there's still cheap in

accumulation Zone and buy zones we have

been in those levels for a long time we

are almost in basically a fire sale we

are almost in Bitcoin no we're not

really I'm joking but you get the idea

we are very much in that situation where

Bitcoin is accumulating this is

obviously interesting liquidity we are

coming into a point of liquidity turning

we are at this point now where it has

potentially bottomed and we're going to

go up now there's potential rate cuts

that could affect the market there's

obviously other elements around that

that could be important I.E what if

banks go bankrupt you know what about if

the SEC Su certain things you know

there's so many unknown truths but what

we need is liquidity to allow this to

happen the problem we have and this is

obvious let me get you focus because I

think this is bit

important there's a lot more old coins

in 2021 2020 there's a lot more old

coins a lot more old coins so there's

not going to be enough money to go

around the strongest and the fittest

Will Survive and the best old coins will

do well I think the top 50 will be very

very interesting I don't think you're

going to start seeing some random coins

that you can buy which is in page number

3,000 whatever in freaking coin market

cap that's going to pump your backs meme

coins will have that effect in certain

Vibes but I think it's very much a

lottery going down there liquidity will

gravitate to certain things the top top

assets the best product things like

chain link could be speculative guessing

but it could be a potential ETF in the

future likes of cardano likes of polka

do avax they've all had little Nuance

newses about certain things around

coinbase Futures listings that's like

okay that's a bit of a step in the right

Direction you will probably find more

stuff like that happening so yeah we

have to be somewhat careful when we talk

about obviously this this is huge and if

liquidity will return in

2025 well guess where it's going to go

probably a slice of the pie will go into

cryptocurrency assets we also need to

talk about Market cycles and if you know

me and you follow my Channel Please

Subscribe it would be nice also check

out my um X account because I talk a lot

about this in terms of markup

distribution mark down I think we're in

accumulation phase we've not had that

initial markup yet we've had a test

there we've had a baby run but alt coins

are still getting smashed right

especially in the BTC pair this is kind

of what it looks like in simple terms

you've probably seen other graphs that a

bit more complicated but this is kind of

how things go things go up things go

down basically the bits in the middle is

accumulation zones and we have

distribution of taking profit remember

guys taking profit if you want more

videos on me doing profit videos and

stuff like that and like this let me

know because that's kind of what I'm

better at in my opinion anyways so we

need to get that out the way but I've

already talked about it Bitcoin is

potentially in an accumulation Zone we

could be going lower and it could

accumulate even more all coins what are

they doing not a lot maybe

accumulation probably yeah I hate the

world of I really do hate YouTube I do

um I've already mentioned it before on

my patreon and my mmq if you seen that

free video you probably seen one of the

questions

I probably won't be doing YouTube once

it Cycles over I probably will do very

very limited YouTube video

content it's just too much the problem

we have is already you could see on

these two examples last time to buy

altcoins confirmed the bottom you know

huge buying all these kind of stuff is

like crazy numbers there is some stuff

on here when you put on altcoin that is

not it's kind of bullish like obviously

kieran's here that's fine problem we got

is there's too much going on when we get

to a point where literally and this is

going to be the Gods on of Truth here

when you do bullish content about

certain altcoins that are going to pump

and certain things and all that kind of

stuff they get views because people are

interested people want to make money you

guys probably watch my channel through a

certain video what may have got your

interest because it looks good and may

be making money it's a lot harder than

that right so they will continuously do

bullish content that will allow people

to get involved via views and that makes

them feel good YouTubers feel good by

getting views and by comments and likes

right we do because when we put the

effort in we want it to do well for

obvious reasons and I fell into that

trap a long time ago where I was doing

certain types of content which was doing

okay this is back in 2021 but didn't

make me feel good I like psychological

videos I like covering news and

information about technical analysis

what I think and my opinion of the

market is that's kind of how what I like

to do but some people like to speculate

on other people's opinions right and

therefore doing a video around it that's

fine but when the overall message could

be very much skewed due to oh it's just

going to go up because it's July that

could mislead people and that could be

where the problem lies so we have to be

so so careful so when you're looking on

YouTube I've often said this don't

follow too many people because you will

get a lot of skewed information and

you're going to have to make your wrong

decision you're going to be absolutely

scrambled and that could lead to you

going well I've gone down the wrong

Avenue here so let's look at Bitcoin in

a general kind of sense right this is

the previous have and you can see here

how we've done nothing for a very long

time over the summer July we bounced up

and then we pulled back into August and

we went higher now if we're going to

simulate that again we could be looking

at a similar sort of situation or the

same sort of period which could lead us

to about basically September time now

that isn't a wrong thing we are at

levels of well mid-range at the minute

obious obiously we've been at levels of

support this 60k level has to hold

whether you like it or not it has to

hold now when we talk about that we need

to talk about the next leg I've been

talking very openly if you follow me on

X it's my pin post is patience is

required the next leg will send people

in and I talk about it in terms of Dum

money will come into the market at 83k

that is my fundamental belief because I

know it happens and it has happened even

this year it happened right why we went

all the way from this level which to 28k

up to 40K we pulled back from 48 all the

way into 38 and then very very quickly

went from 48,000 38,000 sorry all the

way to 73 what happened everything

went mental didn't it yes it did

boys and girls why people were talking

about the parabolic nature of it and the

left translated cycle and information

around that and we were going to all

make it turns out that left translated

cycle stuff didn't happen we have pulled

back quite aggressively and we're

looking relatively good we are probably

going to be a bit crappy for a while I

think that anyways unless cat to all

this something major changes I.E

liquidity is drawn in there's fear in

the stock market and people are looking

for an alternative Bitcoin will pull the

market up it is very much a Bitcoin

cycle right now so that will change the

game so for me we're talking 83,000 for

the Mania her to come in ethereum is

very similar we are very much in a

bullish Trend but we're starting to show

signs of weakness we've formed a lower

high we've pulled off this level and we

are potentially going to go and retest a

level a bit higher and then we might

come down lower there's rumors already

of I believe the 4th of July maybe or

maybe a bit later than that is ETF day

that's only two days away I know but

that might be allock so we need to wait

and see that could send us lower could

be a lot of liquidity much lower for

ethereum again though the next leg up

from this correction could well be here

now for me I think this is failed so I

think this is out of date so if we're

going to reassemble this and put it all

together again which actually let's just

do that it makes more sense so if we're

looking at the overall situation in my

opinion if we are looking at this this

low to this high this is what I think is

kind of somewhat outdated we've already

went and corrected it we've formed a new

lower high we might go and retest it yes

it's feasible we go and retest this

level again and this could be the

alltime high retest what could happen as

well is the opposite is well what about

from this low into well we've already

went and retested the 618 levels are we

going to go up to the 618 levels up here

which again equals alltime high so

there's a lot of kind of pressure around

the Fibonacci to kind of go you know

what maybe it might happen we might go

618 to 618 that could happen and this

could just be a continuation it's a

higher higher series of higher higher

lows and we're going to continue going

up it's looking unlikely because we

formed a lower high here but as I say

ETF could change everything here

so we got to look at that as a situation

so yeah ethereum is a very very

interesting one and again we've got a

look at the obvious this is a total

three chat from the low to the high

we're pulled back and we're curring on

the 382 yeah it's just a freaking metric

I know but ultimately this doesn't look

great it looks like it's going to

consolidate it doesn't look like it's

got much umph we're below the EMA 21 for

Stars this is all nice and red it's

looking a bit but again it is just an

index of the total Market capab without

ethereum without Bitcoin right so it's

given us as a picture the picture is not

painting a pretty one right now and this

could allow things to happen so what

could happen is Bitcoin could

bounce and altcoins may not follow it if

Bitcoin then goes into August or

September and has a bit of a crappy two

month which is kind of on History which

does

happen altcoins are going to get hurt

quite a lot and there'll be no all

season All Season Could Happen due to

bitcoin going high enough and people

rotate into it but for that that to

happen they've got to find new level

lows in my opinion so that could happen

that could allow us going all the way

down

here yep I know you're all just turned

off right now and I know but yeah what's

wrong with that the reason why this

level is important because if we're

going to do further structure if we're

going to go from this high to this

correction here pull back into the 618

continuous this swing low goes into this

0272 which is roughly around here so we

could be looking at 500 billion to 480

billion I know it's an index shouldn't

really do Ta on it but ultimately that's

a definite possibility so yeah a bit of

FIB setion there if I've lost you check

out the loading crypto links and if I'm

going to kill you even more and I do

apologize look at what is happening here

this is the total 3/ BTC chart this is

in a freaking horrible downtrend and

again I talked about it in my previous

videos that this level is going to act

as resistance if this breaks above it

I'll be probably a bit more excited but

I probably won't be because I don't

think it's going to happen if we're

going to get a regression we're going to

continue going

lower which is not going to be fun if

we're looking at swing targets we're

looking at going down to 43% potentially

which brings us all the way down to the

start of the previous bull market which

is a long long long long time ago so

yeah I don't think alt

seasons are coming anytime soon I do

apologize people are probably like oh

but but please we have to break key

levels and those key levels have to be

broken and things are not looking good

elsewhere it's fine though it's kind of

the market metric and I've talked about

this before in yesterday's video this

time is not different it's fine we are

following the fouryear cycle that's good

but I think people got a bit too excited

too early yes the news is great yes the

ethereum ETF is huge Bitcoin ETF is

actually really really good but we need

the liquidity that's not going to come

just off a button click is it let's be

honest but anyways if you enjoy this

video let me know I'm going to be doing

some little changes to my video format

um going to make it a lot neater and

tidier certainly more with a full phas

hi um so yeah if you enjoy leave a

comment let me know and yes quality

content in coming

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