美國2024年總統選舉, 誰對台灣比較有利？川普還是拜登？Who is better for Taiwan in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?

Summary

In this video, the host discusses the upcoming U.S. presidential election between Biden and Trump, its implications for Taiwan, and the unique challenges each candidate presents. The host explores the U.S. electoral system, including the Electoral College and the influence of independent voters. They analyze Trump's unpredictability and Biden's perceived weakness, concluding that while both have flaws, Biden might offer a safer option for Taiwan. The video also touches on third-party candidates and the potential impact on the election outcome.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ The upcoming U.S. election is a rematch between Biden and Trump, with significant implications for both America and Taiwan.
• 🎥 The speaker is reluctant to discuss the election due to embarrassment and frustration but feels compelled to do so due to its global impact.
• 🦈 Sponsored content features Surfshark VPN, highlighting its use for accessing geo-restricted content and internet security features.
• 🐘🐪 The two main U.S. political parties are symbolized by an elephant (Republicans) and a donkey (Democrats), with red and blue as their respective colors.
• 📊 The U.S. election system involves the Electoral College, which allocates votes based on state populations but with an uneven ratio, potentially discounting individual votes.
• 🤔 The speaker identifies as an independent voter and notes that a significant portion of the U.S. voting population either doesn't vote or is independent.
• 💪 Trump's presidency was characterized by a tough stance on China, initiating tariffs and challenging the status quo, but his unpredictability and loyalty-over-competence approach caused issues.
• 🔬 Biden's administration continued Trump's policies against China, especially in high-tech sectors, and has shown a more functional and competent approach, with a stronger military presence around Taiwan.
• 🕊️ Biden has expressed a commitment to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack, aligning with traditional U.S. policies and maintaining strong relationships with regional allies.
• 👨‍👦 Biden's son Hunter has legal issues and a controversial personal life, which could potentially impact Biden's image.
• 👴 Both candidates face age-related concerns, with health and vitality being a factor in their ability to serve effectively.
• 🏆 The speaker predicts that Biden has an edge in the election due to independent voters' preferences and the impact of a third-party candidate, Robert F Kennedy Jr.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is the upcoming U.S. presidential election, focusing on the potential candidates, how the election process works, and the implications for Taiwan.

Who is the sponsor of the video and what do they offer?

The sponsor of the video is Surfshark VPN, which offers internet security tools including a VPN service, virus scanners, and ad blockers.

Why does the video creator feel embarrassed and frustrated about making this video?

The video creator feels embarrassed and frustrated because they do not enjoy discussing the U.S. election, but they feel compelled to do so due to its impact on America and Taiwan.

What are the two main political parties in the United States mentioned in the video?

The two main political parties in the United States mentioned are the Republicans, symbolized by an elephant and associated with the color red, and the Democrats, symbolized by a donkey and associated with the color blue.

What is the significance of the Electoral College in U.S. presidential elections?

The Electoral College is a system where each state has a certain number of electoral votes, and the candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state gets all of that state's electoral votes. This system can result in a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote.

How did Trump's presidency affect U.S.-China relations?

Trump's presidency was characterized by a tough stance on China, including initiating tariffs and starting a trade war. He was also unpredictable and did not adhere to the traditional one China policy.

What is Biden's stance on China compared to Trump's?

Biden has continued the tough stance on China initiated by Trump, doubling down on the trade war, especially concerning high-tech industries like semiconductors. However, Biden follows traditional U.S. policies and relies more on his staff for decision-making.

What are some of the issues surrounding Trump's and Biden's candidacies?

Trump faces legal issues as a convicted felon with multiple indictments, while Biden's administration has been criticized for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and foreign policy issues, and Biden's son Hunter has his own legal problems.

Why might the presence of a third-party candidate, Robert F Kennedy Jr, affect the election outcome?

The presence of a third-party candidate can affect the election by drawing votes away from the major party candidates. In this case, Robert F Kennedy Jr is expected to take votes that might otherwise go to Trump.

What is the video creator's opinion on which candidate would be better for Taiwan?

The video creator believes that Taiwan would be safer under Biden's presidency due to his more functional administration and stronger military presence around Taiwan, despite Biden appearing weak in the eyes of China.

What factors might influence the outcome of the election according to the video?

Factors that might influence the election outcome include Trump's alienation of lifelong Republicans, the removal of federal protection for abortion rights, Biden's administration's handling of various issues, and the impact of a third-party candidate.

Outlines

00:00

📅 US Election Overview

Toer discusses the upcoming US presidential election, expressing reluctance to delve into the topic due to its embarrassing and frustrating nature. He explains the significance of the election for both America and Taiwan. The video will cover how US elections work, the candidates' potential impact on Taiwan, and Toer's personal opinion on who is likely to win.

05:01

🔒 Sponsor Shoutout: Surf Shark VPN

Toer promotes Surf Shark VPN, highlighting its various features such as virus scanners, ad blockers, and the ability to change IP addresses to access geo-restricted content. He shares a personal example of using the VPN to watch a video unavailable in Taiwan by switching his IP address to Australia. He also mentions a special offer for viewers to get a discount and four months free by using his coupon code.

10:04

🐘🦓 US Political Parties and Voting Challenges

Toer explains the symbols and colors of the two main US political parties: Republicans (elephant, red) and Democrats (donkey, blue). He finds these symbols strange and highlights that the largest group of voters are independents. He discusses the challenges of voting in the US, including the inconvenient timing of Election Day and the complex Electoral College system, which often discourages voter participation.

15:05

🗳️ The Electoral College and Voting Disparities

Toer provides an overview of the Electoral College system, explaining how electoral votes are allocated and how this can lead to a president winning the election without the popular vote. He mentions that this system can demotivate voters in states with predictable outcomes. The discussion transitions to evaluating Trump and Biden's policies and their implications for Taiwan.

🇨🇳 US-China Relations Under Trump and Biden

Toer compares Trump and Biden's approaches to China and their impact on Taiwan. Trump is described as tough on China, unpredictable, and prioritizing loyalty over competence. Biden, on the other hand, continued Trump's tariffs, is seen as less unpredictable, and relies on a more competent staff. Biden's administration has provided significant military aid to Taiwan and strengthened US presence in the region.

⚖️ Legal Issues of Trump and Biden's Family

Toer discusses the legal troubles faced by Trump and Biden's son, Hunter. Trump is a convicted felon with multiple pending cases, while Hunter Biden has a series of personal scandals and legal issues. Despite these issues, both Trump and Biden remain eligible to run for president. The discussion highlights the candidates' ages and the potential implications for their ability to serve.

🇹🇼 Which Candidate is Better for Taiwan?

Toer evaluates which candidate might be better for Taiwan. Trump is seen as unpredictable and less collaborative with allies, while Biden is viewed as weak but more stable with a functional administration. Both candidates have stated their support for Taiwan, but Toer believes Biden's structured approach and consistent policies make him a safer choice for Taiwan.

🔮 Predicting the Election Outcome

Toer predicts that Biden has an edge in the upcoming election due to Trump's alienation of some Republicans and the impact of the abortion rights issue. He also notes the potential influence of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Toer concludes that although the election remains uncertain, Biden's previous victory over Trump and current circumstances favor him. He expresses his dissatisfaction with the current candidates and hopes for a peaceful future.

Keywords

💡Election Year

Election Year refers to the period in which general elections are held to choose government officials. In the context of the video, it highlights the U.S. presidential election and its potential impact on both the U.S. and Taiwan. The script mentions that the election will determine whether Biden or Trump will be the next president, indicating the significance of this year for political outcomes.

💡Electoral College

The Electoral College is the system used in the U.S. to elect the president, where electors represent the states and cast votes for the candidate who won the majority in their state. The video explains that this system can result in a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote, as happened with Trump in 2016. It's a key concept in understanding the U.S. presidential election process.

💡Independent Voters

Independent Voters are individuals who do not affiliate with any political party. The script notes that the largest group of voters in the U.S. are independent, which implies they can significantly influence the election outcome due to their non-partisan stance. Their role is crucial in the context of 'purple states' or battleground states where the election could swing either way.

💡Populist Vote

The popular vote refers to the total number of votes cast for a candidate in an election. The video script mentions that a president can be elected without winning the popular vote due to the Electoral College system, emphasizing the difference between popular support and election victory.

💡Purple States

Purple States are those that can swing between voting for the Democratic or Republican candidate in an election. In the script, these states are identified as the real battlegrounds for the campaign because the independent voters in these states can decide the election outcome by choosing between the two major parties.

💡Trade War

The Trade War mentioned in the video refers to the economic conflict initiated by Trump against China, which involved imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. The script discusses how Biden continued and escalated this trade war, especially in the high-tech sector, indicating the ongoing economic tension between the U.S. and China.

💡One China Policy

The One China Policy is a diplomatic acknowledgment that there is only one Chinese government, which has historically been the stance of the U.S. towards China. The video script points out that Trump did not abide by this policy, suggesting a deviation from traditional U.S. foreign policy towards China.

💡Never Trumpers

Never Trumpers are Republicans who oppose Trump and refuse to support him in the presidential elections. The script indicates that Trump has alienated many lifelong Republicans, which could affect the election outcome in the purple states where traditional Republican strength is diminished.

💡Third Party Candidate

A Third Party Candidate is someone who runs for office outside of the two major political parties. The video script introduces Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third-party candidate, whose presence could potentially affect the distribution of votes and influence the election outcome by drawing support away from one of the major candidates.

💡VPN

A VPN, or Virtual Private Network, is a service that allows users to connect to the internet through an encrypted tunnel to another network, often to access region-restricted content or maintain privacy. The script mentions Surfshark VPN as a sponsor, highlighting its use for changing IP addresses to access content not available in certain regions, such as the example.

Highlights

It's election year in the United States with a potential rematch between Biden and Trump for the presidency.

The election outcome will have an impact on both America and Taiwan.

Surfshark VPN is sponsored as a top VPN with internet security tools like virus scanners and ad blockers.

Surfshark allows changing IP addresses to access geo-restricted content.

Transcripts

hey toer here so it is election year

again in the United States and we have a

rematch on who will be the next

president will it be Biden will it be

Trump now to be 100% honest I don't even

want to make this video I don't like

talking about this it's kind of

embarrassing it's kind of frustrating

for me but the outcome of this election

will affect America and it will

certainly affect Taiwan so I feel that I

need to talk about this that I need to

make this video so we're going to

discuss a little bit about how elections

work in the US which candidate would be

better for Taiwan and why and at the

very end of the video I

promise I'll give you my opinion my

opinion on who is more likely to win

before we get started uh I want to give

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and Disney plus and even YouTube so in

the USA there are two main political

parties Trump's party the Republicans

have a symbol of an elephant and their

party color is red now Biden's party are

called the Democrats and their party

color is blue and their Party symbol is

a donkey I personally think that party

symbols donkey and elephant are really

strange because donkey is just a weird

mascot and there are no elephants native

in North America so I really don't

understand either of those mascots but

that's what they are elephant and donkey

but actually the largest group of Voters

don't belong to either party they are

independent voters that's me I'm

independent and technically the largest

group of Voters are actually people who

don't vote now you might be wondering

why don't people vote in the USA what's

going on well Taiwan is actually a

healthier democracy than the USA you see

in the USA voting for president it

happens just on one day and it's not a

convenient day it's a Tuesday they call

it super Tuesday and it's not even all

day it's maybe 12 hours of the day and

many people don't necessarily live next

to a place where you can vote so it's

not very convenient and it's not a

national holiday you're expected to go

to work that day so there's many people

who simply just can't afford to go vote

they have to work it's not cool now some

states do have mail-in ballots which

does make it easier but not all states

now also when Americans are voting for

the president it's not one person one

vote that's not how it works it's this

actually very complicated system called

The Electoral

College so the way this works briefly is

that every state has what's called

electoral votes and who whichever

candidate gets the majority of votes

within that state all all of the state's

electoral votes go to that candidate and

the number of electoral votes that a

state has it depends on its

population but the ratio isn't really

fair so a state that has a huge

population like California that person's

vote literally counts less than a vote

in a less populated state like

Alaska not cool this is how president

presidents can actually lose the popular

vote which means more people will vote

for their opponent but they can still

get elected president because they win

the electoral college vote it's really

weird now this is what happened with

Trump in 2016 he lost the popular vote

but he won the Electoral College vote so

he became president this system actually

discourages a lot of people from voting

because if there from a state where the

majority are obviously going to vote for

a certain political party like if you

live in Texas the chances that the

majority of the people are going to vote

for Republican is extremely high it's

basically a certainty then if you're

voting Democrat your vote really doesn't

count so a lot of people just don't vote

they don't waste their time so let's

evaluate Trump and Biden's past

performance and

predict what we think which candidate

would be better for

Taiwan now Trump is historically pretty

tough on China part of his 2016 campaign

was talking about how dangerous China

actually is and Trump was fairly

friendly towards

Taiwan Trump initiated the tariffs

against China so he started the trade

war that China and the US are currently

involved in Trump is also very

unpredictable and he doesn't go along

with the status quo for example he met

with Kim Jong-un and he doesn't really

abide by traditional US policies like

the one China policy one of the issues

with Trump though is that he favors

loyalty over competence when it comes to

deciding who's in his staff who's in his

presidential cabinet so as a result he

didn't really get along very well with

the Joint Chiefs of Staff sta in the

military now in Biden's presidency he

took all those tariffs that Trump did

previously and actually doubled down the

trade War escalated under Biden

especially when it comes to Hightech

stuff like

semiconductors so Biden has been just as

tough on China As Trump was but unlike

Trump Biden is not a loose cannon he

follows the US traditional policy and

unlike Trump Biden relies very heavily

on his staff and his staff is arguably

more competent than Trump's ever was now

yes Biden's staff are a lot of

Washington insiders they a lot of career

politicians but they know how to play

the game and they work well together so

Biden's relationship with the military

is much better than Trump's relationship

with the military ever was under Biden's

Administration the US has given Taiwan

billions of dollars for military

spending also under Biden the US Navy

established a base in Northern

Philippines and they have bolstered the

presence in Guam and okanawa so the US

Navy has a much stronger presence around

Taiwan under Biden's leadership plus

Biden plays ball with Australia and

Japan the biggest problem with Biden is

that China views him as being weak

because he's afraid old man also when

the US left Afghanistan that was

technically under Biden's watch even

though the US withdrawal from

Afghanistan was Trump's plan it happened

under Biden and that was a big mess

there's really nothing good to say about

it so from the Chinese perspective Biden

appeared super weak and in the Chinese

perspective Trump is just a loose canon

they don't know what to expect from him

now both candidates have their own set

of problems both have like different

flavors of corruption now Trump is the

first former president to be a convicted

felon and that's really just kind of the

beginning of Trump's legal problems he

still has many more indictments against

him there's three more cases all of

these are felonies uh two of them are

interfering with election results and

the other one is basically stealing top

secret information classified documents

none of these are good and there is a

chance that Trump might go to prison but

even though Trump is a convicted felon

it only means he can't vote there's

nothing in the US laws saying that a

convicted felon even someone in prison

can't run for president so he can still

run for president if he's found guilty

and in prison and if he's elected

president

he can pardon himself of all of his

crimes Biden has his own set of problems

especially with his son Hunter Hunter

Biden is President Biden's surviving son

his other son died and Hunter Biden has

all sorts of issues he has his own set

of legal problems his like his Hunter

Biden's life is like a bad TV drama it's

really strange I mean he filmed himself

doing drugs with a prostitute and had

that footage on a laptop which he lost

in the laptop repair center so the world

found out about it that's not even the

weirdest thing he had a relationship

with his brother's widow and bought a

gun where he lied on the form to buy a

gun which is a felony so he has his own

set of issues isues like it's just it's

so it's all so absurd it's so

embarrassing and the problem that both

of these men have is that they're both

very old Biden especially looks very old

and frail so there's a chance that Trump

or Biden or or both of them could die of

old age before the election even happens

so which one of these candidates is

better for Taiwan well on one hand

there's Trump who is very unpredictable

China would be very afraid to act

against Taiwan because they don't know

how Trump would respond but Trump

historically does not play well with

others he doesn't get along with the US

Military and his unpredictable nature is

seen as a threat to America's allies as

well so the American relationship with

other Regional players in the Pacific

like Japan and Australia and the

Philippines we just don't know how that

would play out under President Trump

Biden appears weak in the eyes of China

but Biden has a much more functional

Administration the US government is much

more functional under

Biden and that includes the military now

this is basically because Biden just

does what his staff tells him to do

because he's a frail old man

but Biden has also repeatedly said that

he would commit American forces to

defending Taiwan in the case of a

Chinese attack so both options are not

terrible options for Taiwan but in my

opinion I think that Taiwan would be

safer under Biden than it would under

Trump but who will actually win the

election ah here this is what you're

here for

now remember we mentioned that the

largest group of Voters in the US are

The Independents they're not members of

either party the Republicans or the

Democrats and we talked about that

Electoral College well it's the

independent voters in the states that

could flip between red or blue these are

called the purple States these are the

real Battleground States for a

campaign the Republic an have a couple

of things going against them in this

election first thing is that Trump has

alienated many lifelong Republicans they

have basically quit the Republican party

when it comes to presidential elections

they call themselves never trumpers so

the traditional Republican strength in

these purple States isn't quite there

also a few years ago the Republicans

took took away the Federal Protection

for abortion rights for women many many

most almost everybody in the US is a

single isue voter which means they

really just care about one thing and

that's why they vote the way that they

do so every independent voter who really

cares about women's rights and abortion

rights are going to vote against the

Republicans now of course Trump is a

convicted felon there's all sorts of

independent voters who don't want the

embarrassment of having a convicted

felon as their president so that's a

knock against Trump now Biden's

Administration hasn't been perfect I

mean there's a lot of people who are

very angry at how Biden's Administration

handled the last few years of

covid-19 and the whole whole Israel

Hamas issue and Gaza there's a lot of

people who are very angry with Biden as

a result another issue to make things

even more complicated is that there is a

significant Third Party candidate yes

this year we have a third candidate

Robert F Kennedy Jr and the Kennedy

family is a very influential family in

the

USA President Kennedy was very popular

before he was assassinated however

Robert Kennedy Jr RFK Jr his own family

has campaigned against him this is

because he's kind of crazy like he

literally has had a brain eating worm in

his

head that's that's not a joke that

actually

happened and he really hammers on some

fairly wild conspiracy theories now

usually a third party is going to harm

one of the two candidates that is

running because they're going to take

votes away from one of the two major

candidates in this case RFK is going to

be taking votes away from people who

would probably be voting for Trump

otherwise so because of all of these

factors it's in my opinion that Biden

has the edge in this upcoming election I

mean Biden already beat Trump once and

with everything else that I just

mentioned I don't think it's that much

of a stretch to say that Biden has a

significant chance of winning again is

it a sure thing no I'm not saying that

but my own personal opinion about all of

this is that I think this is very

embarrassing I think that these two old

men are definitely not the best

candidates that America could put forth

but this is who we have it's a choice

that most Americans don't want to make

me included all right hey thanks a lot

for for watching that's all I have for

today please don't skin me alive in the

comments please be kind a huge massive

thank you to all my patreon and YouTube

members you guys are the best you've

changed my life thank you so much please

check out some of my other videos

especially if you like geopolitics

concerning Taiwan let's hope that we can

all live in a more peaceful world

everybody wants to live in peace and

prosperity let's hope that can happen

peace and love

I'll see you thanks