The Most OBVIOUS Crypto TRAP Is Happening RIGHT NOW! [Do This URGENTLY]
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the speaker discusses a significant correction in the crypto market, labeling it a 'trap' and offering an important market update. They analyze Bitcoin's sharp decline, the panic it caused, and the contrasting opinions on social media. The speaker shares their opinion on market positioning, anticipating future trends, and strategies to take advantage of the situation. They delve into data, recount past events, and provide technical analysis on various cryptocurrencies, suggesting that despite the downturn, savvy investors can capitalize on these market movements, especially during major capitulation events.
Takeaways
- 📉 The crypto market has recently experienced one of the biggest Bitcoin corrections this cycle, causing panic among investors.
- 📈 Despite the correction, the altcoin market defended the GCR level, which has become a significant cultural support level in crypto.
- 🗣️ There is a lot of contrasting and divided opinions on social media, especially Twitter, regarding the current state of the market.
- 📊 Force selling rumors, such as those related to Mount Gox and Germany, have a greater impact on price than the actual selling events.
- 📉 Historically, announcements related to Mount Gox have coincided with times when the crypto market is losing momentum, potentially marking local bottoms.
- 💡 The speaker believes that buying during major capitulation events provides a better risk-reward entry than trying to catch a falling knife during slow bleeds.
- 📈 The speaker made significant buys during the recent correction, considering it one of the top three buying days of the year.
- 📊 The speaker suggests that the interest in crypto should scale inversely to prices, especially when there is a clear macro trend, buying more when prices are low and selling during pumps.
- 📉 The speaker anticipates that the market's worst drawdown may be over, with the potential for a continuation of the rally if Bitcoin can reclaim key levels.
- 🔮 Looking at the macro perspective, the speaker sees a strong bull case for crypto, with various macro tailwinds such as regulatory shifts and the upcoming election.
Q & A
What is the main topic discussed in the video script?
-The main topic discussed in the video script is the analysis of a significant correction in the cryptocurrency market, particularly focusing on Bitcoin, and providing insights into market trends and strategies for investors during such periods.
What does the speaker identify as one of the biggest traps in the crypto market?
-The speaker identifies the panic and contrasting opinions following a major Bitcoin correction as one of the biggest traps in the crypto market, which can lead to poor decision-making by investors.
How many 20%+ corrections has the Bitcoin market experienced in the cycle mentioned in the script?
-The Bitcoin market has experienced the 6th 20%+ correction in the cycle mentioned in the script.
What was the speaker's strategy during the recent market correction?
-The speaker's strategy during the recent market correction was to make significant buys, considering it a top opportunity to enter the market when others were panicking and the sentiment was extremely bearish.
What is the significance of the GCR level in the altcoin market?
-The GCR level is significant in the altcoin market as it represents a cultural support level where the market has historically defended and recovered after sell-offs, becoming a key point of interest for investors.
What role did the Mount Gox selling rumors play in the market according to the script?
-According to the script, the Mount Gox selling rumors played a role in triggering force selling and panic in the market, which the speaker suggests might be used by insiders or as a manipulative tactic to create local bottoms in the market.
What is the speaker's opinion on the current macro trend of the cryptocurrency market?
-The speaker believes that the current macro trend is bullish and that investors should increase their interest in the market as prices drop, acting inversely to the market sentiment.
What is the importance of the 64k level for Bitcoin according to the script?
-The 64k level for Bitcoin is important as it represents a significant resistance level that, if reclaimed, could signal a trend continuation and a potential reversal in the market.
What does the speaker suggest about the relationship between Bitcoin dominance and altcoin performance?
-The speaker suggests that altcoins leading the market down could be a sign of weakness for Bitcoin, and that if altcoins hold up better during a Bitcoin sell-off, it could indicate a potential shift in the market dynamics favoring altcoins in the next rally.
What is the speaker's view on the potential timing of the cycle top?
-The speaker's view is that the cycle top might occur later than initially expected, possibly in Q1 to Q2 2025, due to the bearish price action resetting the market and buying more time for the next leg of the bull run.
What advice does the speaker give for positioning in altcoins during the current market conditions?
-The speaker advises to focus on altcoins that are showing relative strength, are in structural uptrends against Bitcoin, or have strong narratives and catalysts, while also considering major support levels for potential entry points.
Outlines
📉 Crypto Market Analysis and Panic Response
The speaker discusses a significant correction in the crypto market, particularly in Bitcoin, which has caused widespread panic among investors. They highlight the sharp and severe nature of the correction and the resulting divided opinions on social media platforms like Twitter. The speaker aims to provide clarity, sharing their perspective on market conditions, anticipating future trends, and advising on strategic positioning to take advantage of the situation. They also plan to analyze data from recent days to inform viewers on potential actions.
📈 Market Recovery and Strategic Buying Opportunities
The speaker reflects on their own actions during the market downturn, identifying it as one of their top three buying days of the year. They discuss the concept of buying during major capitulation events, which they view as offering the best risk-reward entry points. The speaker also touches on the psychological aspect of trading, emphasizing the importance of acting contrary to market fear. They mention various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, and provide a technical analysis of their price movements, suggesting that the market may be nearing a local bottom.
💡 Navigating Market Sentiment and Positioning Strategies
The speaker provides insights into market sentiment and positioning strategies during a macro uptrend. They advise increasing interest in the market as prices drop, contrary to popular panic reactions. The speaker discusses the importance of capitalizing on major dips and the wisdom of selling during major pumps to replenish investment capital. They also share their thoughts on the recent market rebound, analyzing various cryptocurrencies' price actions and suggesting that the market's next move will likely be influenced by Bitcoin's performance.
🔮 Long-Term Market Outlook and Cycle Analysis
The speaker shifts focus to a more macro perspective, discussing the historical performance of the crypto market during summer months and suggesting that the current bearish sentiment may be a setup for a stronger bull run later in the year. They propose that the market has been given more time due to recent price action and that the cycle top might occur later than initially anticipated. The speaker also highlights various macro tailwinds such as regulatory shifts and political developments that could positively impact the crypto market.
🚀 Identifying Altcoins with Strong Potential
The speaker offers advice on identifying altcoins with strong potential, suggesting looking at those that are in structural uptrends against Bitcoin. They mention several altcoins that have shown relative strength and are bouncing off major support levels. The speaker also discusses the importance of having a strong narrative for altcoins, such as rebranding or new network launches, and how these factors can contribute to an altcoin's performance in the market.
🛑 Avoiding Traps and Capitalizing on Market Opportunities
In the concluding remarks, the speaker urges viewers to avoid getting trapped by the market's current sentiment and to use this time to research and identify quality altcoins for potential investment. They emphasize the importance of developing a watch list and focusing on macro cycle positioning. The speaker also plans to share more insights into their own shopping list of coins in future videos, highlighting the need to capitalize on bearish sentiment during macro uptrends.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Crypto Market
💡Bitcoin Corrections
💡Market Update
💡Panic
💡Altcoin Charts
💡Force Selling
💡Local Bottom
💡Macro Trend
💡Liquidation Cascade
💡Meme Coins
💡ETH ETF
💡200 EMA
💡Bitcoin Dominance
💡V-Chart
💡High Time Frame Support Levels
Highlights
The video discusses one of the biggest traps in the crypto market and provides a market update.
Bitcoin experienced its 6th 20%+ correction, causing panic among investors.
The presenter shares his opinion on the current market state and anticipates the next few weeks.
Total altcoin market defended the GCR level, a significant cultural support level in crypto.
Force selling rumors, such as from Mount GA, tend to affect prices more than the actual selling.
The presenter made significant buys during the correction, considering it a top buying opportunity.
Meme coins led the market recovery, showing strong signs of market leadership.
ETH and other strong betas are expected to lead the market in the event of a continued recovery.
The presenter's strategy is to buy heavily during major capitulation events for better risk-reward entries.
Bitcoin's dominance chart shows an ascending channel, indicating a clear uptrend.
Altcoins held up during Bitcoin's drop, suggesting potential altcoin leadership in the next market pump.
The presenter believes the worst of the drawdown may be over, with a potential for a market recovery.
The video discusses the historical poor price action during summer months in crypto markets.
The presenter shares his long-term perspective, considering macro tailwinds and a potential market top in 2025.
The presenter advises on strategies for playing the uptrend with specific altcoins and using V chart for relative strength analysis.
The importance of having patience and mental fortitude when investing in altcoins at high time frame support levels.
The presenter emphasizes the value of focusing on research and developing watch lists during periods of low volatility.
The video concludes with advice to capitalize on bearish sentiment during macro uptrends, historically a successful strategy.
Transcripts
this is one of the biggest traps that I
have seen in the crypto Market in a long
long time and in today's video I'm going
to break down exactly what that is and
give you a very important market update
as you can see in front of you we've
seen one of the biggest Bitcoin
Corrections this cycle over the last
week it's now the 6th 20 plus%
correction this cycle and it was
actually one of the most sharpest and
severe Corrections this cycle in terms
of the amount of days that it took to
draw down 20% and thus obviously it's
caused a lot of panic obviously a lot of
people in the market especially on
Twitter are panicking and my timeline is
full of contrasting and divided opinions
so today I'm here to make sense of it
all give you my opinion on where I think
the current market sits what I am
anticipating over the next few weeks and
also what you can do to position
yourself to make sure that you actually
use this period to your advantage and
don't get trapped so now let's look at
the data and quickly recap what has
happened over the past few days before
we get into what you can do about it so
as I mentioned it was one of the biggest
Bitcoin draw down since the post ETF
sell-off since the bank failure usdc fud
and it was only the second major draw
down I say major which is 20% uh plus
this year similar to the April
correction a lot of old Al coins have
also been hit we're going to go through
lots of altcoin charts in just a few
minutes interestingly though on the
total three charts so that is excluding
Bitcoin any so just altcoins the market
actually did defend the GCR level this
is of course the level where GCR stepped
in and had that famous tweet that he
believes it's a good opportunity to
scale into high conviction tokens it's
almost become a bit of a significant
cultural support level in crypto so
despite deviating low that level
actually ended up holding with total 3
making a recovery after quite a nasty
sell-off last week and look during all
of this fud which was primarily
triggered by Mount GA selling rumors
Germany selling rumors and all of this
you know Force selling stuff that
started to come out on the market I did
this tweet here saying before you start
panicking about mount gox for the
millionth time and the German selling
remember that Force selling fud usually
affects price more than the selling
itself we've seen this time and time
again wouldn't be surprised if we're
nearing a local bottom here and in fact
pretty much every single time we've seen
Mount GA fud on March 6th 2023 on the
22nd of November 2023 or even the 23rd
of January 2024 that is actually been
the local bottom for crypto it's also
always funny that these Mount goau
announcements seem to happen during
times when crypto is losing momentum
like you can see here after the initial
selloff we saw the announcement after a
sell-off we saw announce announcement
and this happened once again two days
ago either one of two things is
happening here one the Insiders know
about the mount Go's repayment
announcement so they're actually selling
off/ shorting into that announcement
which does make sense and then the
market starts to catch on and then price
action you know bleeds out from there or
two someone's just playing a sick game
with us and every single time the market
looks weak they decide to drop the mount
gox news of course there is you know
option three which is that it's all just
a big coincidence but it doesn't seem
like it it just seems to happen like
this news always happens when the market
is bearish and in light of the fact that
malox fud has marked local bottoms time
and time again for crypto and in light
of the fact that we saw extremely
bearish sentiment on my timeline in my
opinion too bearish I actually stepped
in and made some of my biggest buys of
this cycle so far for me this cycle this
was a top three buying day I think the
only other times that I've bought with
size like this was back in January at
the start of this year when we were
breaking key levels on bitcoin breaking
for 4K that was a major clearance level
for me to go long and I also had major
buys on the GCR tweet day I think it was
April 14th this was another day that I
made major buys and Monday was the next
day so two days ago where I also stepped
in when I just thought things were
getting way too bearish so those were my
three biggest buy days of the year
obviously excluding 2022 November and
all the accumulation we did across 2023
and the hundreds of shows I did on Crypt
banter throughout that period so I'm
talking about 2024 here this was one of
my top three days and that is really
because in this market I tend to follow
the strategy of going quite heavy in
terms of size on major capitulation
Wicks of which obviously we've got over
the last few days and we also got on
April 14th these Major Force selling
events these major Panic liquidation
Cascades for me are the best risk reward
entries in the market significantly
better risk reward than you know trying
to catch a knife on slow bleeds look I
do that as as well for fun on some coins
but uh when it comes to Serious size I
usually do reserve it for days like this
and yes it may mean you have to wait for
an opportunity to arrive and yes maybe
that only happens once every few months
but when you do get these periods uh I
think it's wise to capitalize especially
when you were in a macro Trend and
that's why I did that tweet here about
I'm sorry you're way too bearish time to
dust off The Ledger it's looked like I'm
forced to bid and people know that when
I tweet about buying that must mean that
I'm really buying because this is
something that I rarely do I honestly
rarely tweet about my positioning just
cuz you know now I'm a big account a lot
more scrutiny I tend to stay away from
calling the market as much on my Twitter
account at least compared to you know
YouTube and Discord but you know I felt
the need to say something here because
my entire feed was capitulating and I do
find that funny that a lot of people
were kind of asking me you know is it
time to sell should I get out of the
market because I've always thought that
your interest in crypto should actually
scale and move reflexively inverse to
prices especially when there's a clear
macro Trend like we're in right now not
the other way around so what I mean by
this is when prices are going up
significantly in a macro Trend and the
market is looking really bullish you
should actually become less interested
in the market from a positioning
perspective and maybe you can maintain
more interest from a trading perspective
whereas if you're in a macro bull Trend
like we are now and you've seen prices
significantly drop and fear start to set
into the market as long as that broader
Trend remains intact your interest
should actually exponentially increase
as price goes lower so you should act
reflexively opposite to the market if
that makes sense and if you do this
you're going to be able to catch these
liquidation Cascade scary days where it
feels you know wrong to buy but your
system will kick in and actually trigger
uh those buyers on days like what we got
a couple days ago and last week these
are in my opinion opportunities in the
market as long as a trend maintains
buying into major dips during a macro
uptrend is typically smart selling into
major pumps in an uptrend is also smart
because you need to replenish the
capital if I took no profits throughout
March April May start of June then right
now I wouldn't have any dry powder to
actually be able to make the buys that I
did so that is always something to keep
in mind and since this tweet of course
the market has rebounded quite strongly
in fact I did end up calling the bottom
with this tweet I tweeted in the very
early hours of the morning here when
Bitcoin was deviating below my must hold
level so this was real capitulation in
the market Market of course it hadn't
closed below this level but we saw a
week below and this is where I did
decide to step in you can also check the
time stamp of those tweets that I made
so it was good timing in the market uh
obviously to catch that in my Discord I
said that Mal Ox fears were the latest
trigger for the dip however Force
selling events tend to mark local
bottoms I'd feel stupid not to bid
timeline insanely bearish selling fud
Perfect Storm it's late 1:00 a.m. Just
Whipped Out The Ledger to make some buys
before I go to sleep Pepe e soul with
lading into a BTC leverage long let's
see what happens and of course since
then we have seen the Bitcoin bounce we
have seen the Pepe bounce we have seen
the with bounce we have seen the eth
bounce as well and we've also seen the
salana bounce so everything's pretty
much bounced I guess the question right
now that you're probably asking is is
this rally going to sustain is it too
late to buy should I be waiting for
lower prices is this a confirmed
reversal that is all stuff that I'm
going to get into in today's video
because I believe it's extremely
important firstly I just want to go
through each of these charts that I
actually highlighted in the Discord just
look where they're sitting from a
technical perspective then I'll give you
my opinion on how I would play the
market now that we have had this bounce
and this strong reaction off that
support level Pepe looks great it
bounced really nicely off the 1088 level
uh it it actually rallied and managed to
flip this key daily level as well that
Wick is actually a really bullish Wick
so strong sign from Pepe in fact the
meme coins actually led the market out
of the balance another strong sign that
Meme coins once again are the market
leaders something that I discussed on my
last show as well highlighting Pepe and
that was obviously one that bounced
really strongly one that I mentioned in
the Discord Etc so this for me remains
one of the Premier eth betas I'd love to
see on the daily another close Above
This level then you can start to work
your way out of this bottoming range and
start to push back up towards previous
alltime highs I don't know if the market
has the juice that's needed to repel
this all the way there so we're just
going to see how it reacts around this
level uh closed out some of my tradee
keeping obviously my major spot position
open from this support entry because
that has not been invalidated yet moving
on to whiff this one is really
interesting because you have range low
at the 225 level but then you have this
other major support at the 190 level
both regions broke through this dotted
line here is the previous daily Wick
lows that we saw in April
and also in March and also on June 18th
before it ended up smashing through this
is now looking like a potential
deviation below there was a liquidation
Cascade lots of fud on whiff and since
then the price has actually pushed quite
nicely to the upside roughly 38% in fact
and that's corresponding also at the
time when I made this Discord post it
was pretty much bottoming out and since
then we've seen that 38% reaction to the
upside it's now looking like it wants to
close Above This level and that's going
to be very important if whiff wants to
go and test range low if you are playing
whiff you've kind of got a couple
options cuz look this is a coin that I'm
very bullish on from a macro cycle
perspective I talked about this a couple
days ago and I gave you guys two options
one you can try and catch a knife as
price goes down you can ladder in and
try and get a better entry and basically
lower your cost basis but you have to
have mental fortitude to execute a
strategy like that because not
everyone's going to be able to stay
steadfast and keep pouring liquidity
into something that's going down I
completely understand that so option two
is actually in my opinion not to wait
for a Reclamation of just this level but
wait for a confirmed Reclamation of the
official range low which is at the 225
level so let's say it comes up retests
and then does something like this then
that could be price action that's
encouraging to get in on the major dips
maybe an entry here and then your bigger
size coming on the break SL retest of
this support level on The Daily so
that's something I'm watching for with
kind of two strategies in the market one
requires you to have a lot more mental
fortitude and a longer time horiz and
the other one is more of a trend based
trade giving both options because I know
everyone in this market tends to trade a
little bit differently and you can do
both by the way you can kind of Ladder
into long-term spot and then what you
can also do is wait to go in with maybe
a leverage position or additional spot
size as price starts to break and hold
key levels the other coin I want to
highlight here actually two more coins
uh first one's ethereum it's still in an
uptrend still looks good to me this was
actually a beautiful Wick here because
it's reclaimed perfectly on The Daily so
eth is actually showing a pretty nice
setup for a long here I still think this
is the play If The Market continues its
recovery to the upside eth I do think
continues to lead and then the strong
betas like we've discussed you know
you've got Pepe Lio Etc I think these
are all candidates to lead the market
considering also we have the eth ETF on
the horizon we saw recently SEC chair
gendler highlighting that things are
going smoothly it's really up to the
asset managers to make the proper
disclosures so just himang going
smoothly in my opinion is a good sign
obviously it's going to be all eyes on
the inflows I've kind of talked about
how I think inflows are going to
potentially disappoint in recent times
however guys like Kang have really
started to propel this Narrative of the
eth ETF inflows being so weak that you
know all the attention's going to shift
away from eth and eth's going to crash
and it's going to be sell the news event
and although we do sometimes see buy the
rumor sell the news events in crypto I
think this argument is a little bit
flawed because one expectations are in
the gutter for eth ETF inflows at least
you know across Twitter so if
expectations really are that low then I
don't think it's going to affect prices
if they are indeed bad and of course
that opens up the door for if inflows
perform well and surprise people prices
could actually respond quite positively
and two from a macro point of view a
selloff in my opinion would actually be
a good opport opportunity because we
know over the longer term the inflows
are going to add up and at least provide
ethereum with some sort of passive bid
that it didn't previously have so from a
long-term perspective um you know
bullish eth in terms of the ETF also
bullish on it in terms of relative
strength in the short term looking at
Soul which is I guess you know the eth
competitor in the market it's kind of
jux opposing eth in terms of sentiment
on Twitter you have the two caps your
your eth Maxis your soul Maxis there's a
lot of soul Maxis is cycle and obviously
that's for good reason given the price
action of Soul um interestingly Soul
also bounced off a major level this was
the previous high from December 25th
Soul trades so cleanly by the way in
terms of ta it is still giving you
higher lows on these Wicks you can see
here continuing the pattern of its
uptrend this Wick is just the next
higher low that took us down to two
major support levels one the previous
high as I pointed out and two this 200
Ma on The Daily which is a very key
level for most altcoins salana as well I
mean if you do look at the 200 ma it's a
level that so rejected off twice right
came back down formed a range during FTX
broke out of and ever since then it's
acted as pretty much your bull market
support band I do find that the 200 Ma
on The Daily acts as a very nice macro
level to kind of track General uptrends
and downtrends and the fact that it
bounced off this level does make it
significant and in my opinion uh it was
a decent level to add some soul and that
is why I did end up tweeting that I was
lading into a soul position here on
Discord and I o did a video a couple
days ago where I did highlight Soul as
one of my favorite bull market players I
think it's here that I pointed it out I
also pointed out this support level um
as well which we ended up testing and
since then it's made a decent bounce of
12% but hasn't shown relative strength
compared to the memes Etc I don't know
if Soul necessarily in the short short
term will be the strongest performer I
think there are coins namely meme coins
eth Bas rwa coins that are probably
going to bounce stronger so if you're a
strength Trader and you're looking to
the market those are probably the coins
I would go for but then again you know
salana from a more macro bull market
perspective is one of those plays that
is hard to ignore so it's one that I'll
continue to add on major support levels
of course it's not just this that's a
support level you actually do have the
horizontal support at 88 that would
probably mean the entire crypto Market
has corrected significantly so we'll
need to play those levels as they come
it's not really something I'm at Liberty
to speak about now nor I'm really buying
into at least in the short term given
the signs that we have So speaking of
those signs what is next for the market
do I believe we're going to see
continuation here if you didn't manage
to buy during the liquidation Cascade
should you be lading in now let's talk
about where we sit I think the best
place to start is looking at total three
interestingly we actually Wicked down
into this major support on the total 3
weekly chart if you look at the daily
chart this also becomes apparent we've
had three now retests of this level so
definitely the the more times you test a
level the higher chance it has a
breaking but until proven otherwise that
level is intact and this is really the
time where you'd want to see a bounce
from Total 3 if you go to the weekly it
does become apparent what you want to
see is this impulse upwards to this
mid-range here at the 640 level that is
a mid-range level that I think is of
significance given the fact that 3 weeks
actually Wicked down into this pocket if
you do start to falter like this and
start to eat up this liquidity gap down
down here then the odds of this support
breaking significantly increase cuz now
you're looking at a fifth a sixth retest
of that level so of course until proven
otherwise that support is a level I love
to bid and that's why I did bid a couple
days ago but you really do want to see
some strength here from the altcoin
index to help us work out of this mess
and obviously we have seen this over the
past 24 hours but a lot of this bid is
being led by the memes an interesting
point I want to make here relating to
altcoins is the Bitcoin dominance so
this is the ascending channel that
Bitcoin dominance has found itself in
you have the highs of the channel here
you have the lows of the channel here
very clear uptrend for Bitcoin dominance
this is a chart that I want you to keep
your eyes on over the next couple of
months interestingly during the major
Bitcoin week down to 587 on Monday
altcoins actually went up as you can see
dominance actually dropped and reject Ed
off this level altcoins bled most of
their gains the week prior on this
dominance Wick to the upside so what I
find quite interesting and I think it is
actually indicative of altcoins maybe
leading Bitcoin um on the next pump is
the fact that alt sold off before
Bitcoin so they led the market Bitcoin
followed altcoin so it caught up to the
alts and ended up dropping this is
typically a sign of weakness from an
asset so I do want to keep my eye on how
this dominance Trend ends up playing out
you know does dominance drop and you
start to look at a breakdown here which
would be amazing for altcoins and
probably signal a broader Market rally
ortis dominants simply keep within this
trend and keep grinding up and up and up
as alts bleed this is pretty much
summing up the entire market for you
over the past uh year pretty much with
Bitcoin leading most of the alt coins
it's very apparent when you look at
Bitcoin dominance so I would just keep
that in mind but very interesting as a
takeaway that alts actually held up on
Monday it shows that there was a lot of
capital that actually came in to defend
those levels on altcoins a lot of liquid
funds big players Wales Etc when it came
time to defend the market they defended
the alts because that is where you get
the highest upside on the bounce and
alts relative to bitcoin were actually
oversold so that's why you see Bitcoin
catching up to alts and alts actually
responding quite nicely so now let's
look at the Bitcoin price action cuz I
think the next move for the market is
really going to lie um in the Bitcoin
chart as as well as the total 3 chart of
course but everyone all the TA analysts
Etc out there pretty much charting BTC
so I think when it comes to us
positioning ourselves for the next few
weeks looking at BTC as the way to go
now on the daily chart you can see here
just to summarize what happened we
Wicked down into this 200 EMA that ended
up being that buy Zone before the market
rebounded quite strongly previous week
of course we had below this level was in
April so so far this is a higher low for
Bitcoin even on the liquidation Cascade
and you still are holding this must hold
level at the 60k zone for Bitcoin so all
looks good from that perspective however
what you want to see is continuation and
actually what we really need from a
bullish Bitcoin perspective right if you
want to take that bias into this
discussion is a flip of this
64k level this is a very major region
for Bitcoin it was a level that we broke
down from before testing range low it's
the level that we broke through to make
the previous Bitcoin High and a level of
significant interest for the market it's
actually if you go on to the lower time
frames around
64.5k that is a level you really want to
reclaim for Bitcoin otherwise what could
end up happening is Bitcoin will bleed
this reversal and come back down and
then you're testing for the second time
this level and then the 200 EMA really
has to fight to hold strength if the
market keeps exhibiting bearish momentum
so what you want to be looking for over
the next few few days is how Bitcoin
reacts because if it starts to give up
some of this reversal candle that is a
pretty weak sign and odds ey we are
going to come back down again conversely
if the market continues to exhibit
bullish sentiment push us up towards
this 64k level there's a genuine case
here for a trend continuation SL a
confirmed reversal now you might be
thinking miles that means nothing you're
basically saying if it goes up it goes
up and if it goes down it goes down so
what's the alpha well the alpha in
positioning is this for me the best time
to buy was during this week if you miss
those buys there is no harm in waiting
for those two eventualities to occur
first eventuality Bitcoin starts making
its way to the upside like this and you
can actually buy in on these dips as it
starts to form a new uptrend this is
called a trend reversal getting into the
pullbacks on the trend reversal would I
think be the best way to enter the
market because you're waiting for the
market to signal to you what the trend
is right now on the lower time frames we
don't know what the trend is in fact the
trend is down with a reversal so pretty
much every time frame looks bearish
under the weekly apart from like the 30
minute chart right so you can wait for a
reversal and actually get in on these
pullbacks that's a very safe way to play
it especially on this 64k region which
if this flips then there's a genuine
case that all of that was just a major
fake out trap conversely if the market
starts to break down you're probably
waiting for that next capitulation Weck
to take Bitcoin down to step in when the
Market's oversold and get those
capitulation Buys so those are really
the two scenarios where I would go in
with size either on a major capitulation
Weck like we got so if the market starts
to break down you may get another one
that is a potential scenario where I'm
interested in buying or after a
confirmed reversal and that'll likely
take 4 to 5 days to play out so now's
actually a time where you should really
be monitoring the market because there
is a lot that is likely to change in
terms of market dynamics over the next
week or so so I would definitely be
keeping my eye on bitcoin on altcoins
the next couple of weeks I think it's an
important period for the market in terms
of determining directionality now the
most important thing here from a macro
perspective so that's a little bit
shorter term now I want to talk a bit
more macro in terms of the cycle and
I've got some opinions also on where we
currently sit in the cycle I want you to
not get trapped now what do I mean by
this summer price
action historically is quite poor so in
2017 we saw ults getting crushed versus
Bitcoin in 2019
we saw the 13k top and a massive
correction in 2020 we had defi summer
because everyone was riskof majors and
everything sucked so everyone kind of
moved to farming in 2021 there was
bearish chop until July and that
obviously resulted in that bottom before
the subsequent all-time highs in 2022
obviously price was absolutely rubbish
during the summer months and 2023 we
also chopped around 28k so I don't want
you to get
trapped during these summer months where
it should be expected that price action
is always going to be a little bit
choppy SL bearish now obviously June has
been a bad month for crypto in past July
we've actually seen the market recover
after negative Junes you can see it in
2013 negative June bullish July 2018
negative June bullish July 2020 negative
June bullish July in fact every single
time bitcoin's had a bullish June it's
actually had a bullish July so that
major draw down for Bitcoin and altcoins
that may have been the worst draw down
that we'll see in the coming weeks I do
believe balance of probabilities the
worst is over from a draw down
perspective in terms of price obviously
what could set in now is time
capitulation where people get shaken out
of the market due to this you know
summer L and low volatility ruining
their interest I don't want you to get
trapped into this because the market is
really doing its best to shake you out
in my opinion before the main event
actually previously I thought the cycle
top was going to happen in po Q4 this
year now due to recent price action I'm
thinking q1 to Q2 2025 maybe even later
is more realistic just due to the fact
that the bearish price action has
actually bought us time it's reset a lot
of the leverage in the market and things
were looking overheated in March now
we've seen a reset that I think gives
the market enough of a natural break to
be able to exhibit the next leg of the
Bull Run later in the year and that's
probably going to take us into 2025 now
whereas before you know was looking like
maybe the market could be really really
left leaning so it's actually bought you
time which is a bullish thing because
you know it's rare to actually get time
in crypto so I believe that's exactly
what the market has given us I also want
to give you my long-term perspective
look there are obviously a lot of people
bear posting now like you know K talking
about gaw German coins Nvidia topping
the thing is you have to
remember that we have a very strong bull
case from a macro point of view in front
of us we have the election in November
we have the biggest shift in the
regulatory stats that I have seen
towards crypto ever with the upcoming
election we've seen the eth ETF now
getting approved equities I do believe
at some point given the fact that
they've rallied hard will Rec correlate
with crypto and that's likely going to
result in crypto either going up or
equities pulling back in crypto
remaining
stable and also the market is completely
or was completely oversold and the
sentiment was Max bearish typically that
is a Buy Signal for the market so I made
this point here in response to Kang that
you can list any number of headwinds or
Tailwinds to fit a bias and simply
listing a few things mogs German coins
and video topping like it's it all
sounds great it makes a compelling case
but in reality you know zoom out and
realize we actually have a lot of
bullish macro Tailwinds as well in the
last two months alone we've got the eth
ETF approval S1 amendments and approvals
for the eth ETF Trump campaign talking
about crypto Biden ad been changing
their tune towards crypto consensus
lawsuit being withdrawn SEC giving a
verbal notice of the withdrawal fit 21
passing strong bipartisan support we
have also seen eth called a commodity
like huge huge huge structural macro
changes in the market some really
important changes in the market um a
paradigm shift really in the way crypto
is being you know viewed or at least you
know talked about from a political
perspective so to be bearish into that
during a macro uptrend in my opinion is
foolish these shakeouts these periods of
low volatility obviously we had you know
volatility before but if we do head into
a period of low volatility these are
periods that are really intended to
shake you out and are going to make you
do your best to sell your coins and
inevitably end up buying back in after
the uptrend resumes in terms of playing
the uptrend with you know specific alts
I've talked about a few already in
today's video but one tip uh I want to
give you is to look at the Bitcoin pairs
for altcoins your goal here is to beat
Bitcoin bitcoin's led the market so far
this cycle there are coins however that
are in structural up Trends versus
Bitcoin you've got Ono Pendle B&B Pepe
earlier in the cycle you had salana
whiff I know a lot of other meme coins
now are starting to exhibit you know
strong uptrends on their BTC pairs so
the charts that Victor's using here are
against other altcoins so the others
index so you can actually combine the
Bitcoin charts with the others index to
look at coins that are making new highs
because you want to be in the strong
coins in the market that that's you know
generally speaking where you'll be
better positioned heading into Q3 Q4
another way that you can look at this
across multiple time frames whether
you're trying to catch a bounce on the
lower time frame or position yourself
from a macro point of view as V they
have the midcap index small cap index
large cap index you can even favorite
altcoins to compare them against each
other to look at their performance in
the market and you can also filter by
top gainers and top losers this is a
tool that I'm regularly using in my
trading uh especially right last week
when we got those altcoin dips in order
to know what altsa was going to get into
on
Monday I looked at the V chart and I saw
what did respond the strongest over the
last week and there are a few Trends in
there which you know led me to position
myself in certain coins like you know Li
for example a lot of the eth betas Pepe
Etc so keep your eye on V I do believe
it's a great website for that that's
from a relative strength point of view
the other option is to take a look at
bidding some of the major High time
frames support levels on Alti bullish on
now this strategy I've got to just say
this quickly is probably reserved for
those with slightly more mental
fortitude if you're not willing to be
underwater on a position for potentially
months if you're not willing to hold a
position whilst you see other coins
outperforming it then this strategy is
probably not for you but if you do have
patience and you are willing to bite the
bullet and invest in quality alts there
are some coins that are at high time
frame support levels you can look at
adding to your spot portfolio that that
have recently retested those levels now
as I said before the primary strategy in
the market is following strength and
that's something that I do actively but
I also know that there's a cohort of you
out there that likes to position on
major levels for slight a slightly
longer term bias and for that reason
I'll give you a couple of old coins that
are looking good you've got beam that's
bouncing off its major daily support
level look you also have clear inv
validations on these if it ends up going
against you just make sure you have your
thesis written down if you're buying any
of these coins you have Phantom also at
a major support level it's the high from
December you've obviously got Phantom
Sonic coming later in the year so there
are bullish Catalyst on the Phantom side
you have link which has bounced nicely
multiple times of this daily level also
at a major High time frame support and
then you have another category of
altcoins which they broke down below
their support but if there is a Bitcoin
reversal a sustained reversal in the
market which was the first scenario that
I pointed out obviously there's scenario
b as well but if Bitcoin does reverse
and on major pullbacks does give you
opportunities to enter alts looking for
altcoins that have flipped previous
support into resistance back into
support So something like this on link
let's say it breaks down and then comes
back up at retests this can also be a
decent level to get a confirmed entry on
a trend one of the coins that I'm
looking at right now that is exhibiting
that price action at least in the early
stages is Ator which is starting to now
break above its major daily support at
the 1 150 level this is in light of the
major Rebrand which they just underwent
which rebrands aour to anyone which I
think was an amazing strategic decision
because they are working to become a
large scale private dpin Network and
they're also partnering with lots of AI
deep in compute projects Etc so it makes
sense to Brand to something a little bit
broader like anyone versus Ator which
obviously you know eludes to the onion
router privacy uh narrative that really
underpinned their growth from the early
days but I think now as the network
continues to grow that's a smart
decision and you have seen a nice
reaction there so coins with strong
narratives for example a Rebrand
narrative a new network launch Etc that
are flipping previous support into
resistance back into
support these are the ones that I also
like on the uptrend to position in as I
just discussed you know the Bitcoin
scenario before and there are more which
I'll discuss later in the week on these
shows as the trend starts to establish
itself um you know I'm wary of making
definite calls based on price action
right now which is still trying to
determine itself in terms of
directionality so I hope today's video
helps you just contextualize where we
currently sit the things I'm looking for
and also my views on the cycle I think
everyone needs to chill out a little bit
I saw a lot of craziness bearishness on
Twitter usually that bearishness is a
Buy Signal in the market in my opinion
and this is actually a really nice time
where there is slightly less of a
bullish bias to you know dig deep
research
focus on getting amazing entries on alts
develop your watch lists flesh them out
I'm going to be doing a video soon on on
my shopping list give you more of an
insight into some of the coins that make
my list as I'm continuing to research
and discover new coins that is really
what you should be doing in this market
kind of wipe away the noise Focus purely
on I think for a lot of you macro cycle
positioning and I think you'll come out
the other side significantly better off
for it these dips are major
opportunities to capitalize on bearish
sentiment and I think all you need to do
is look at the historical data to look
at what has happened historically for
those that have capitalized on extremely
bearish sentiment during macro up Trends
I'm going to see you in the next video
hope you have a lovely rest of your day
peace out
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