Crypto Market Update! - Must watch

Summary

In this market update, the speaker analyzes recent movements in NASDAQ, BTC, and Ethereum, highlighting key support and resistance levels. BTC faces a critical zone between 105k–117k, with potential for a gap fill before a correction, while Ethereum may reach 4.8k–5k before retracing. The discussion emphasizes upcoming economic events, including jobs reports, non-farm payrolls, and a possible Fed rate cut, as key market catalysts. Traders are advised to monitor USDT dominance for signals of relief bounces or crashes, and adjust exposure accordingly. Personal insights and trading strategies provide actionable guidance for navigating current market conditions.

Takeaways

• 📈 BDC recently hit its target levels and overall tested higher, with a key support zone around 104–105K based on the 4-hour timeframe.
• 📊 The CE gap for BDC lies between 113.8K and 116.8K, with 117K being a critical resistance level to monitor for potential rejection or continuation.
• 💹 Ethereum's key support levels are around 4K, with critical retracement levels at 3,939 and 3,682, indicating potential downside if BDC corrects.
• 🔄 The market could see either a rejection scenario (pullback/relief bounce) or a breakout scenario (higher highs), depending on reactions at key levels.
• ⚡ Upcoming market events, including job openings, unemployment claims, ISM services, non-farm payrolls, and potential interest rate cuts, could influence short-term movements.
• 📝 The expected strategy is flexible: traders should decide whether to reduce long exposure, fully close positions, or initiate shorts depending on market reactions.
• 💡 Highest probability scenario for BDC: reaching 117K, filling the CME gap, then correcting downward, with extreme lows (~90K) being unlikely at this stage.
• 📉 Ethereum may experience a 17–20% drop from recent highs if BDC corrects after reaching resistance levels.
• 🔍 USDT dominance is a key indicator to watch, as its movements could determine whether the market experiences a relief bounce or a broader crash.
• 🏠 The author is currently settling into a new apartment in Bangkok and is cautiously monitoring the market, with minor updates on personal trading actions.
• 🛑 News events alone may not significantly impact price unless they are extreme (e.g., not implementing a rate cut), as technical chart levels are the primary focus.
• 🚀 If BDC and Ethereum both move higher without rejection, new all-time highs for ETH (4.8–5K) are possible before any potential correction.

Q & A

What are the key support and resistance levels for BTC mentioned in the video?

Key support for BTC is in the 104K–105K range, while key resistance is around 117K, which is considered the caution zone where traders may reduce long exposure or consider shorting.

What is the CE gap for BTC and why is it significant?

The CME (CE) gap is between 113.8K and 116.8K. It is significant because it represents a potential target area for BTC to fill before either rejecting or continuing higher, influencing trader decisions.

How does the video describe the potential scenarios for BTC movement?

BTC could either reject at current levels, move up to 117K and retest highs before dropping, sweep the lows to form a strong bottom, or fill the CME gap, which serves as a cushion before the next move.

Which upcoming economic events could impact market volatility according to the video?

Job openings, unemployment claims, ISM services, non-farm payrolls, earnings reports, and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut are highlighted as events that could trigger market moves.

What is the author's perspective on seasonality effects in September?

The author acknowledges that September is historically bearish but does not give it much weight, focusing instead on chart analysis and technical levels for decision-making.

What are the key support levels for Ethereum (ETH) mentioned in the video?

Key support levels for ETH are around 3.939K (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and potentially down to 3.682K if the market drops further. Sub-4K is a critical area of interest.

How does the BTC movement affect ETH according to the analysis?

If BTC drops from 117K to around 105K, ETH could experience a 17–20% decline, meaning ETH closely follows BTC's trend and traders should adjust positions accordingly.

Why did the author close their ETH long position despite previously entering at 4.33K?

The author closed the ETH long due to news that the Ethereum Foundation deposited 10,000 ETH into Kraken, which created uncertainty about short-term price movements.

What is the importance of monitoring USDT dominance in this analysis?

USDT dominance is a key indicator: a bounce could signal a relief rally, whereas further drops in dominance may trigger a market crash, guiding trading decisions.

What is the author's predicted BTC target for the current cycle?

Based on the previous bottom of around 75K and Fibonacci 78.6% extension, the BTC target for this cycle is approximately 145–150K.

What trading approach does the author recommend while waiting for market direction?

The author recommends flat trading until the market clarifies its direction, either via a rejection or breakout, to avoid unnecessary exposure during uncertain conditions.

How does the author suggest handling trading decisions in the caution zones?

Traders should reduce long exposure, consider shorting, or make other strategic decisions when BTC reaches caution zones like 117K, or when ETH approaches critical support levels.