美股 恐高者众！华尔街：美联储正在犯错！后果严重。NVDA加速布局新业务。TSLA马斯克坦言FSD存在问题。CVX、COIN如何预期？SOXL、ARM、ALAB、QCOM、NFLX、DELL、MSFT

Summary

In this video script, the host discusses the potential risks of the Federal Reserve's delayed interest rate cuts, which could lead to a recession similar to the 2021 policy mistake. They also cover Nvidia's acquisition of Sharon, a software startup, and touch on Tesla's challenges with its Full Self-Driving system. The market analysis includes insights on major indices, tech stocks, and the importance of not pursuing perfection in trading, with a focus on current market trends and potential impacts of policy changes.

Takeaways

• 📉 The Federal Reserve is warned against repeating past mistakes by delaying interest rate cuts, which could push the U.S. into a recessionary spiral.
• 💼 Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, suggests that the Fed's current hesitance to cut rates could lead to a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle in the future.
• 🚀 Nvidia is expanding its investment portfolio with the acquisition of Sharon, a software startup that helps identify and fix issues in computer systems.
• 🤖 Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, admits that the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system faces significant challenges, where improvements can introduce new problems.
• 📈 The stock market analysis suggests that despite some weakness, the overall market trend is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on not panicking and managing positions wisely.
• 📊 The script discusses the importance of technical analysis in trading, emphasizing the need to identify support and resistance zones for effective decision-making.
• 🚗 Tesla is using simulation tests and shadow mode to evaluate the performance of its AI models in FSD, comparing them against actual driver behavior.
• 💡 The market commentary highlights the unpredictability of the market and advises against trying to time the market perfectly, instead focusing on established trading patterns.
• 📊 Specific stock analysis is provided, including CHWY and its potential upward movement following a stock repurchase announcement, and the comparison with General Motors' stock movement.
• 🛢️ The oil sector, including stocks like OXY and CVX, is mentioned with a focus on potential market reactions to Federal Reserve policy decisions and inflation concerns.
• 📱 Tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla are briefly analyzed, with an emphasis on their recent stock performance and market sentiment.

Q & A

What warning did Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, give regarding the Federal Reserve's current approach to interest rates?

Mohamed El-Erian warned that the Federal Reserve is repeating the mistake it made three years ago by delaying interest rate cuts, which could push the U.S. economy into a recession and force the Fed into a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle.

According to the script, what is the potential consequence of the Federal Reserve delaying its rate cuts?

The delay in rate cuts could lead to a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle in the future, possibly resulting in economic and financial weakness and an unnecessary reduction in economic growth and financial stability.

What historical policy mistake by the Federal Reserve is mentioned in the script, and how is it related to the current situation?

The script refers to the Federal Reserve's mistake in 2021 when officials did not raise interest rates in time after the U.S. inflation spiked post-pandemic. This is related to the current situation as the Fed is again perceived to be delaying action, which could lead to a similar outcome.

What is the estimated risk of a U.S. economic recession according to the speaker?

The speaker estimates the risk of a U.S. economic recession to be 35%.

What change did the Federal Reserve make to its interest rate cut expectations in the June dot plot compared to the March expectations?

In the June dot plot, the Federal Reserve reduced the median expectation for the number of interest rate cuts this year from three times to just once, compared to the March expectations.

What is the significance of the Federal Reserve's policy response timing according to the script?

The timing of the Federal Reserve's policy response is crucial as waiting longer to cut rates could lead to greater unnecessary damage to the U.S. economic growth prospects and financial stability, particularly hitting vulnerable areas harder.

What acquisition is NVIDIA planning, and what does it signify for the company's expansion?

NVIDIA is planning to acquire Sharon, a U.S. software startup that helps find and automatically fix problems in computer systems. This signifies NVIDIA's expansion into software and its ongoing efforts to diversify its revenue and reduce reliance on major cloud computing companies.

What is the significance of the cooperation between HPE and NVIDIA in the context of AI?

The cooperation between HPE and NVIDIA involves the launch of a new AI solution called 'NVIDIA AI Computing by HPE,' which integrates NVIDIA's AI compute, networking, and software with HPE's AI storage and GreenLake cloud, indicating a significant step in the advancement of generative AI in industrial applications.

What challenges is Tesla facing with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, as mentioned by Elon Musk?

Tesla is facing the challenge of assessing the performance of new FSD models as it becomes increasingly difficult to determine which AI model is better, especially when interventions are rare. Additionally, solving one problem with a model might introduce another, creating a 'see-saw' problem.

How is Tesla addressing the challenges with its FSD system?

Tesla is addressing these challenges through methods such as simulation testing and shadow mode operation, which allows them to compare new model driving behaviors with user behaviors to identify strengths and weaknesses of different models.

What is the speaker's view on the current state of the stock market and the potential for market fluctuations?

The speaker suggests that while the market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with the potential for both upward and downward movements, it is important for investors to be mindful of 'black swan' events or sudden policy changes that could lead to significant market volatility.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Fed's Delayed Rate Cuts Risk Recession

The video discusses concerns raised by Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, about the Federal Reserve's potential repetition of past mistakes. He warns that the Fed's hesitation to cut interest rates could push the U.S. into a recession, similar to the errors made in 2021 when they failed to raise rates promptly during post-pandemic inflation. El-Erian suggests that if the Fed waits too long to initiate rate cuts, it will be forced into a more aggressive cycle, possibly exceeding the necessary reduction levels, which could exacerbate economic and financial weakness and pose policy challenges internationally.

05:03

💡 Nvidia's Expansion with Sharon Acquisition

The script highlights Nvidia's agreement to acquire Sharon, a California-based software startup aimed at developers, known for its software that identifies and automatically fixes issues within computer systems. Founded by a former Amazon Web Services vice president, Sharon has raised approximately $57 million with support from investors like Dawn Capital, Insight Partners, and Canvas Ventures. The acquisition is part of Nvidia's strategy to strengthen its position in creating and running AI software systems and to diversify its revenue streams, reducing reliance on major cloud computing companies like Microsoft and Amazon.

10:05

🚗 Tesla's FSD Challenges and Market Analysis

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, addresses the challenges faced by Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system at the company's annual shareholder meeting. He mentions that as the FSD system improves, evaluating the performance of new AI models becomes difficult due to the infrequency of incidents requiring human intervention. Musk explains Tesla's approach to resolving this issue, which includes simulation testing and the use of 'shadow mode' to compare AI model behavior with actual driver behavior. The company uses data from millions of vehicles to assess AI models' predictive actions against real-world driving, aiming to determine the best-performing models, especially in complex traffic scenarios.

15:06

📈 Market Volatility and Trading Insights

The script provides an analysis of the pre-market performance, noting slight volatility in the NASDAQ futures and a cautious approach due to previous weak market trends. It discusses the potential for the market to be in an uptrend continuation despite the lack of new highs. The speaker also touches on the importance of not being overly concerned by short-term fluctuations, especially if one has a long-term investment horizon. The focus is on understanding market movements, such as the strength of bearish or bullish trends, and the potential impact of unforeseen events or policy changes on market directions.

20:07

🛢️ Energy Stocks and Market Speculations

The video script speculates on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on energy stocks, particularly in light of Warren Buffett's continued investment in Occidental Petroleum (OXY). It suggests that energy stocks might experience a震荡行情 (trading range or consolidation) unless there is a rapid interest rate cut that could reignite inflation concerns. The speaker also contemplates the broader implications of financial policies, such as the potential for asset bubbles and their societal effects, advocating for a more cautious approach to monetary policy to avoid economic instability.

📊 Stock Performance and Blockchain Outlook

The final paragraph reviews the performance of various stocks, including Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia, with a focus on their recent price movements and the potential for further gains or corrections. It also addresses the blockchain sector, noting the importance of maintaining a strong upward trend and the need for significant bullish candles to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. The script ends with a reminder to watch the member-exclusive video for further insights.

Keywords

💡Fed

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as 'the Fed,' is the central banking system of the United States. In the video, it is discussed in the context of its monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, which have significant impacts on the economy and financial markets. The script mentions the Fed's potential policy errors and their implications for economic recession.

💡Recession

A recession is a period of negative economic growth that lasts for more than a few months. In the script, the potential for the U.S. economy to enter a recession is highlighted as a consequence of the Fed's delayed action on interest rate cuts, which could lead to a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle if not addressed promptly.

💡Interest Rate Cuts

Interest rate cuts refer to the lowering of interest rates by a central bank to stimulate economic activity. The video discusses the Fed's hesitation in implementing rate cuts and the potential economic risks associated with delayed action, including the possibility of a more severe economic downturn.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script refers to the Fed's past policy errors during the post-pandemic inflation surge, where they initially believed inflation was 'transitory' but later had to rapidly increase rates to combat it.

💡Nvidia

Nvidia is a leading technology company known for its graphics processing units and artificial intelligence technologies. The script mentions Nvidia's expansion through the acquisition of a software startup, Sharon, highlighting the company's growth strategy and its role in the AI industry.

💡Sharon

Sharon is a software startup mentioned in the script as being acquired by Nvidia. The company specializes in software that identifies and helps fix issues within computer systems, demonstrating the trend of tech giants acquiring innovative startups to bolster their product offerings.

💡AI Models

AI models, or artificial intelligence models, are algorithms designed to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as recognizing patterns or making decisions. The script discusses the challenges Tesla faces with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, where improving AI models can introduce new problems, illustrating the complexity of AI development.

💡Shadow Mode

Shadow mode is a testing method used in AI development where a new model's performance is compared to actual driver behavior without the model being actively used in driving. The script describes how Tesla uses shadow mode to evaluate the performance of its FSD system, emphasizing the importance of rigorous testing in AI advancement.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used in finance to predict the direction of prices through the study of historical price patterns. The script refers to technical analysis in the context of stock market trading, discussing support and resistance levels, and the interpretation of market trends to inform trading decisions.

💡Market Volatility

Market volatility refers to the rapid and significant fluctuations in the price of a security or index. The video script discusses the potential for increased market volatility due to factors such as policy changes and economic indicators, advising viewers to be cautious and prepared for sudden market movements.

💡Portfolio Management

Portfolio management involves the oversight of different types of investments to meet the investor's goals. The script touches on the importance of portfolio management, particularly in the context of market uncertainty, advising viewers on the importance of not being overly invested in high-cost positions and the strategy of reducing positions when necessary.

Highlights

Analysis of the US stock market continues with a warning from Allianz Chief Economic Advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, on the Federal Reserve's potential policy mistakes.

El-Erian suggests the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates could lead to a repeat of past errors, pushing the US into a recession.

The Fed's insistence on postponing rate cuts could necessitate a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle in the future, according to El-Erian.

El-Erian's view that the Fed's delayed action might lead to a larger-than-necessary rate cut, similar to the policy error in 2021.

NVIDIA's expansion in the investment landscape with the acquisition of software startup Sharon.

Details on Sharon's software capabilities and its support from notable investors like Dawn Capital and Insight Partners.

NVIDIA's strategy to diversify its revenue and reduce reliance on major cloud computing companies like Microsoft and Amazon.

HPE and NVIDIA's collaboration to launch an AI enterprise software aimed at accelerating generative AI industrial revolution.

Elon Musk's discussion on the challenges faced by Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and its impact on achieving autonomous taxi goals.

Musk's explanation of the difficulty in evaluating AI models' performance as FSD system progresses.

Tesla's approach to addressing FSD challenges, including simulation testing and shadow mode operation.

Market analysis on the performance of pre-market futures, with a focus on the Nasdaq's slight volatility.

Discussion on the importance of not panicking in the market and adjusting trading strategies based on long-term positions.

Analysis of small-cap stocks and their current market position, suggesting a lack of panic among investors.

The potential impact of Fed policy decisions on the 10-year Treasury yield and market volatility.

A review of specific stock performances, including CHWY and its recent stock repurchase announcement.

General Motors' stock movement and its comparison to CHWY's market behavior, indicating a potential upward trend.

The importance of not guessing market tops and focusing on continuation patterns in stock trading.

Final thoughts on market unpredictability and the need for a fixed trading pattern to navigate through it.

Transcripts

大家好今天是6月19号星期三

我们继续分析美股

感谢您为视频点赞

也欢迎会员去观看

今天的全球主要股指的分析视频

美联储正在重蹈覆辙

安联首席警告美国将被推入衰退深渊

当地时间周二

安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德埃尔

埃利安在其专栏文章中写道

美联储目前在降息方面迟迟拖延

可能会导致

美联储三年前犯下的错误重演

这将令美国经济处于危险之中

最终迫使美联储不得不更激进的降息

美联储正在重蹈覆辙

它表示

如果美联储想要将衰退风险降至最低

就有必要尽早进行首次降息

但现实情况却正相反

美联储一直坚持推迟降息

美联储官员近日的讲话也持续强调

不急于降息

这加大了

它今后不得不采取

更为激进的降息周期的可能性

他警告说

如果这一周期

由于美联储推迟开始降息

而导致美联储加速

出现经济和金融疲软

那么美联储将被迫进入一个

大规模的降息周期

而且根据长期情况

美联储最终的降息幅度

也将不得不超过必要水平

这与美联储在2021年的政策错误类似

当时美联储官员们在美国疫情后

通胀飙升的情况下

没有及时加息

然而

他们当时关于通胀是暂时的的论点

被证明是错误的

最终美联储不得不快速大幅加息

包括连续四次加息75个基点

这也给美国经济带来了额外的痛苦

按照他的说法

美联储这样的政策过度

将暴露一些地区的金

融脆弱性

并在国际上

给许多其他国家带来更多政策挑战

降息太晚了

本月早些时候

他表示美联储年内

如果仅在12月底前降息一次

将为时已晚

可能导致经济放缓幅度超过应有水平

他认为目前美国经济衰退的风险为35%

在美联储上周发布的6月点阵图中

美联储官员们

把今年降息次数的中位数

预期从3月时的3次降到了只有一次

在我看来

点阵图所反映的信息就是太晚了

它表示到那时

利率大幅上升的滞后效应会更加严重

他在文章最后写道

即将到来的美联储降息周期

的最终利率水平

并非既定的

而是取决于何时开始降息

如果美联储官员等待降息的时间越长

美国经济增长前景和金融稳定

面临的不必要损害就越大

对较脆弱领域的打击尤其严重

在这个过程中

美联储将再次陷入被动的政策反应

及救火式的政策反应

新股王英伟达投资版图再扩张

拟将软件创企showerline纳入麾下

据知情人士透露

人工智能龙头英伟达

近日已同意

收购美国软件初创公司Sharon

总部位于美国加州的Sharon公司

是一家面向软件开发人员的初创公司

创始人兼首席执行官a是曾啊

这个

就任亚马逊网络服务的一名前副总裁

该公司于2019年创立

其开发的软件

可以查找计算机系统中的问题和事故

并帮助自动修复这些问题

根据数据提供商Pitchbook的数据

该公司现已筹集了大约5,700万

美元并得到了包括Dawn capital

insight Partners

和canvas Ventures在内的投资者的支持

知情人士称

这笔交易是最近达成的

这笔交易中

该公司的估值约为1亿美元

近年来英伟达已一步步成为

创建和运行人工智能软件

所需的计算机系统的核心

通过合作与收购

英伟达一直在增加新的功能

包括软件网络

预训练的人工智能模型等技术

不过

对其其对呃一些初创公司的收购案例

并不总是对外披露

此外

英伟达还希望实现收入的多元化

减少对微软和亚马逊

等公司的严重依赖

后两家公司主导着全球云计算行业

英伟达需要通过它们与企业展开合作

周二

慧宇科技与英伟达达成合作

共同推出一款人工智能企业软件

以加速生成式人工智能工业革命

汇宇科技首席执行官

a与英伟达CEO黄仁勋

周二共同出席HPE discover 2024大会

宣布推出一款名为英伟达

AI computing by HPE

的全新人工智能解决方案

该方案的主要产品之一是慧

与私有云人工智能

这是首个深度集成了英伟达

人工智能计算

网络和软件

以及汇宇科技的人工智能存储计算

以及green lake云的解决方案

马斯克坦言

特斯拉FSD面临难题

改进的同时会带来新的问题

在特斯拉2024年的年度股东大会上

首席执行官

马斯克谈到了困扰特斯拉

完全自动驾驶的一个重大难题

该难题印证了业内人士两年

前的猜测

并有可能影响特斯拉

实现无人驾驶出租车的目标

马斯克表示

随着f s d系统不断进步

判断哪个AI模型更好变得愈发困难

因为当行驶数千英里后

才出现一次需要人工干预的情况时

如何快速评估新模型的性能

就成了难题

这些不同的AI模型

并不会完美的解决所有问题

他坦言

一个模型解决了a问题

却可能带来b问题

另外一个人呢

两年前就推测

特斯拉FSD系统可能存在这个跷跷板

问题

及系统在修正既有问题的过程中

可能会引入新的问题

导致整体效果裹足不前

针对这一难题

特斯拉是如何解决的呢

我们正通过多种方式来解决这个问题

包括仿真测试

影子模式的运行

马斯克介绍说

让部分车辆不启用FSD功能

反而能起到帮助

我们可以通过影子模式

来对比新模型的驾驶行为和用户行为

从而发现不同模型的优劣势

特斯拉可以通过旗下数百万辆汽车

进行测试

比较AI模型的预测行为

和用户实际驾驶行为之间的差异

从而判断哪个模型表现更好

目前最大的限制并不是训练数据

而是测试AI模型的效率

他坦言以及

如何巧妙的判断新模型是否更优秀

例如

我们知道一些特定的路口非常复杂

所有模型

在没有复杂路口的良好道路上行驶时

都表现良好

因此

我们在美国选取了几千个复杂路口

专门用来测

试新模型的性能

好我们看一下今天盘前市场的表现

纳指期货微微的波动

我们仔细看

今天盘前这根k线

实际上呢

也有一点点弱势哈

但鉴于之前弱势的k线

都有可能是上涨中继

所以我们此位啊

待在这个位置呢

也假设它是上涨中继的概率更高

但是啊我们心里肯定是提防着它的

对吧呃那么

昨天没有创新高

那今天盘前也不敢创新高啊

这市场不过啊

不要紧

因为空头还没有大规模的入场啊

特别是对这个图来说

我们看一下一小时图

感受一下

你看这市场哎

这这几天哈

跌下来又弹了上去

空头你看这又变弱了

是吧

今天亚欧时段呢

空头还是比较弱

那什么时候变强呢

一般情况下

美股交易时段会变强啊

啊美股时间变强的时候

咱们会感受到

但如果美股交易时段

下午盘又拉了起来

这表明啊

这个下跌也是比较犹豫

你看上涨这顺流吧啊

那下跌如果影线过多哈

这个没有实体的

日内的一些小k线出现啊

实体大阴线出现

那说明空头还是无力啊

空头无力

只要空头没什么力度

我们假设上行的概率高

那即便是有空头

有力度

只要不达到史诗级别的大阴线的级别

我们假设

我们第一假设是

它是一波回撤

对吧

史诗级别的大阴线才构成一个恐慌

哈

那如果仅仅是这这些

这边这种阴线

这种感觉

我们第一假设仍旧是回撤啊

由于未来接下来一段时间啊

市场变幻莫测

啊所以

只要不出现特别大个的阴线出现

一般情况下

多头不必极度恐慌

不必极度恐慌

对吧

好有了这个心理准备之后

建设之后

想必呢大家也可以松一口气哈

不要有那么大的压力

但有人压力大

有可能是他的仓位的成本过高了哈

接近于当前的顶部哈

啊那你需要减减仓啊

那如果你成本在在这呢

或者你你投了几十年了在这呢

那你恐慌什么呢

对吧

好那关键就是唉

没有那么多长线交易者啊

有但少

所以啊他们更多的是关注啊

这一波啊

到底什么时候要了结获利的问题

那现在空头没入场

你怎么不能彻底获利呢

是吧

我相信大部分人也都是科技股啊

没有彻底获了获利了结呢

我们看一下小盘股

小盘股人家你就不用恐慌

人家本身就没走强牛市哈

你看这图

在这震一震

跌下来在这震荡一下

然后现在又换到中间的位置震一震

可爱吧

哎罗素还是比较可爱的哈

就是换个位置震一震

对吧啊

呃怎么说

为什么当前这要震一震呢

那如果它想要恢复到牛市哈

比如降息之后啊

恢复到牛市

它要把这个地方给洗完了啊

阻力区啊

得洗一洗

说它为什么不跌下去呢

因为这又构成支撑区了呀

下边这啊

所以它就在中间震一震吧

你看技术面多么可爱呀

是吧

是这意思哈

人家技术面是有可爱之处的哈

啊那么现在呢

市场也要提防一些什么黑天鹅的行情

或者是突变的数据啊

或者是突发的

政策的改变哈

这些都有可能导致市场的暴涨

或者是暴跌

那从纳指的角度来说

如果遇到黑天鹅

暴跌的概率会比暴涨的概率会高

哈

那对于这些小盘股呢

你说再暴跌能跌哪去呢

是吧啊

当然也得提防啊

你看这地方

是吧 所以我们说市场的变化啊

变幻啊变化多端啊

变幻莫测啊

嗯

但我们啊

在这种变化中呢

也找找到我们的交易模式

按照交易模式去做

就可以了

不要追求完美

追求完美的卖点和买点是比较困难的

特别是卖点

因为人他有缺陷啊

也有缺有缺陷

有缺点

完美是做不到的

抛弃完美主义

你就能放下一块大石头啊

我们看一下标普

标普盘前也是微微的波动

标普今天反倒创了新高啊

嗯

好今天盘前

这样的话

不能去啊

不能去判断为是顶部啊

我们这个话术呢

也应该改一下啊

不能完全判定为顶部呢啊

只能说可以猜猜是否是顶

好这是对大盘的关注

那有部分呢

是关注美债哈

10年期国债收益率呢

估计呢啊

短线范围内是震荡哈

那要看美联储降息的一个力度

那如果如刚才那个专家所说的

又犯了

原来这个应该及时加息的错误

那这次呢

是应该及时降息

它没有及时降息

导致后续啊

这经济萎缩的比较严重

它不得不快速降息的话

那市场呢

有可能会有剧烈的波动哈

那届时

大家要关注各类资产的一个疯狂啊

震荡啊所以啊

这个政策的

它事后解释它错了

那有啥用啊

对吧

你得事前做啊

好吧

那都事后了

大家都看到了

那对吧

这个你的判断力呢

是不是所以

当然啊这个我们对他要求太严格了

哈

好吧

啊那这对于美债来说

大家要关注哈

接下来震荡的可能性

好我们看一些热门的标的

我们看一下CHWY

这个图

我们之前关注到一条新闻啥来着

它要回购它的股票

哎走上来

空头跌不动

多头拉起来

近期横盘震荡

再拉起来

哎这是一个我们的初步的预期

要摸到趋势线附近哈

但如果这波有幸突上去呢

逆转这根趋势线呢

那就应该继续看涨啊

整体就要恢复到牛市

好吧

这图我们之前说不做

可以学习一下

是吧

因为我们之前遇到过一个类似的图啊

比如说通用汽车

对吧看看是不是一样的

还还真就是一样的走法啊

拉起来震一震

走起来接下来往上凸一凸

横一横继续拉一拉

好说到这个

我们看看是不是

呃

通用汽车在这啊你看

这

拉起来走一走

横一横凸一凸啊

因为这有个下跌趋势线了哈

突一突再横一横

再拉一拉

那么现在

通用汽车是不是还在往上拉一拉呀

是的

横盘震荡之后

我们的第一假设是往上走

因为美股牛市太强了

你不得不假设

横盘是上涨中继的概率更高

而不老是反转为空头啊

不要老是猜顶

要猜中继

上涨

上涨中继

那么现在呢

空头也不是说特强势

你看跌下来就弹起来

那么这样的话

继续往上看喽

对吧往上看

好回过头来再看一下

CHWI是不是类似

只不过它还之后一步啊

先来看凸一凸横一横的情况就行了

好学习一下也可以

好我们看一下其它的图

a r m这个图

创新高之后能踩顶吗

不能

对吧不能

戴尔科技能做多吗

能

能凡是沾上了英伟达的光的哈

都有可能要走一走

往上走一走

对吧

至少把这缺口补一补啊

或者是在这里再震一震

也可以

不要做这种图啊

学习一下啊

我 我我这大部分图我也不做啊

就是看一看

学习一下

我们看一下SOXL拆顶吗

可以拆到了吗

不确定没有顶就不架构

我们唯一担心的是啥呢

到前高附近

形成顶部

是吧

或者是突破上去回踩

那如果能突破上去回踩

能止跌的话就最好了

对吧

但如果到前高附近

它疲软了

开始暴跌

大家要提防啊

大型回撤洗

开始洗这个点

大型震荡洗盘

这种情况就可以了

哎不能猜绝对的大顶啊

先猜一个震荡洗盘

是吧当然

那建立在啊

出现强劲的空头表现的情况下

是吧

嗯现在呢

呃

看一看对高点测试的一个情况

不要急于猜

不要急于确定为顶部

我们看一下ALAB哎

这个架构呢

应该做多了哈

那这种图比较新啊

大家可以少参与

但学习一下也是可以的啊

你看

是吧有点这意思吧

嗯所以啊

有可能是

至少大型震荡区间了

好我们看一下高通

高通的图

和近期的美光以及台积电走势类似

大家只需要延长我们的上涨趋势线

是吧 有人说不可思

议哈特别是看空者

猜猜顶的人

不可思议

那你猜了几个月的顶了

也没有猜到哈

那现在能不能猜到

不敢说哈

不敢说这时间呢

绝对不是顶部的一个重要因素哈

顶部架构才是顶部的决定性因素

哎 那昨天人家是阳线

你我们这里的模式是

阳线不能确定为顶部

可以踩顶

但是阳线不能作为顶部来确认

得用阴线形成的顶部架构来确认

好

我们看一下

奈呃奈飞

哈这个阿飞

阿飞也到前高附近了吧

这个符合我们的预期吧

嗯符合

非常符合

相当符合

是吧

那马上也要摸到高点了啊

这摸到高点就有点会有点分歧哈

那空头现在显示出力度了吗

没有看涨吗

看涨不不看涨看啥呀

对吧 你看之前这波段这么大

你现在这这1/3左右的波幅

就就看涨是吧

但是不能这个非理性的哈

那么看到顶部结构再判断

也是可以的哈

现在现在不能看顶

嗯

没看到顶部

好我们看一下能源股

昨天这个不是披露了新闻

不是说巴菲特不断的加仓oxy吗

那你OSY也是原油领域啊

原油领域我觉得走震荡行情是可以的

走大趋势的话

那不通胀又来了吗

除非你这波急速降息又导致通胀了

所以这是这

这个金融领域啊

啥事都有可能发生

就像刚才那个人说的

如果你美联储又承认错误了

我赶紧急速降息吧

结果又把原油给吹起来了

泡沫给吹起来了啊

那也是有可能的

那就看鲍威尔成这个错没错

以及他愿

不愿意急速降息了

那如果是缓慢降息

那对能源股呢

也就是先走一些震荡

或者是一些弱势的多头波段

应该以局部波段交易为主

但以波段交易为主的思路

是怎么做来着

画好趋势线

找到趋势线的右侧点位

再去做来

同时呢

也要判断一下局部的震荡区间嘛

把阻力区放这一个

我看哪有支撑区啊

最大的支撑区下边这啊

让调一调

调一调它也没摸到啊

这究竟哪能止跌

当前也有可能止跌

但是昨天的阳线不够强势啊

有回落

那后续还得等趋势线右侧点位再去做

它也完全有可能继续震荡下行

我们说大型震荡区间嘛

无序震荡嘛

啊

那雪佛龙CVX也是巴菲特的重仓股

是吧

这两个都是石油领域的

那有啥用呢

这不是重复了吗

好吧大家可以再观察一下

接下来止跌的震荡情况

但如果真的是急速降息呢

那吹泡沫

继续吹关键是受得了吧

民众受得了吧

财政受得了吧

这些问题都都是重要问题哈

啊我觉得哈

金融不是无限度的哈

历史上有很多疯狂的泡沫行为

但如果老是弄的话

最后啊

由于啊这东西反人性啊

资产泡沫是反人性的

最后导致社会动荡

也得不偿失啊

不如啊

走震荡行情会好一点啊

个人之见

嗯我们看一下微软

微软昨天阴线

强吗不强

不能不能判断为顶部

我们看一下苹果

苹果昨天阴线

强吗不强啊

假设是上涨中继哈

我们看一下特斯拉

特斯拉空头

强吗不强

你看昨天有下影线

这样的话看涨

最后我们看一下

新股王拆顶吗

可以拆是顶吗

还不是今天盘前又涨了

好吧

我们呃怎么说呢

市场我们哎

对啊看一下区块链领域啊

大家要注意

区块链领域如果破掉趋势线的话

它有可能恢复到震荡行情啊

接下来必须得有强势阳线出现

那这个啊

什么证券监管机构

还是什么金融机构啊

对对什么来着

对以太坊放松了审查的这个力度

那对区块链领域

你说是利好还是利空啊

消息面是利好

那看要接下来看看顶部啊

是不是出货

还是继续暴涨

反正就这个消息面

它其实也是双向的影响是吧

你说不准这东西

所以说我们哈

要固定交易模式呢

那区块链我们就要关注哈

这里能不能再出现大阳线往上去突破

这个位置

目前空头还是比较弱势的

我们第一假设还是往上突

往上走空头弱势吧

阴线小吧

你看之前这阴线都比较漂亮

但现在阴线比较柔弱哈

所以上行概率略高哈

略高

因为我们是顺势预期

我们都要找到强势的一方去预期

对吧

好我们今天呢

先说这么几只吧

我们盘后再看哈

拜拜哎对了

大家去看会员视频哈拜拜