$AAPL PRE Q3 EARNING ANALYSIS

Summary

In this Top Trading video, the presenter analyzes Apple's stock performance, highlighting a bearish trend and predicting a possible drop to two-digit prices. They discuss past earnings, currency fluctuations, and supply constraints affecting Apple's profitability. The video provides a detailed chart analysis, including MACD indicators and resistance levels, and urges viewers to join the Top Trading Academy for further insights. The presenter also emphasizes the importance of doing one's own research and shares their bearish outlook based on financial fundamentals and market trends.

Takeaways

• 📈 The video discusses Apple's stock performance, highlighting a recent bull run followed by a bear run.
• 👀 The speaker warned about potential risks before Apple's earnings report, suggesting the stock was more expensive at $162 than at $182.
• 📚 Mention of Top Trading Edge Academy, where viewers can learn more about stock analysis and trading strategies.
• 🗓 Historical tweet references on July 30th and video analysis on July 22nd, indicating a similar bearish pattern setting up for Apple's stock.
• 📉 The speaker anticipates that if Apple misses its earnings, the stock could become more expensive at $100 compared to the $182 level.
• 📉 Prediction of Apple's stock heading towards two-digit figures, despite being a favored stock on Wall Street.
• 📊 Technical analysis is provided, with the MACD indicator suggesting further downside potential for the stock price.
• 📊 The speaker suggests that Apple might fill a gap in its stock price, which could lead to further declines.
• 💰 Discussion of Apple's financial fundamentals, including a significant drop in net income and the impact of currency fluctuations on earnings.
• 🔍 Mention of external factors such as currency wars, supply constraints, and rising interest rates that could negatively affect Apple's profitability.
• 📉 The speaker's overall bearish stance on Apple's stock, based on technical analysis, financial fundamentals, and market sentiment.

Q & A

What was the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video was Apple's stock performance, specifically its chart analysis and predictions based on historical trends and upcoming earnings reports.

What was the speaker's initial warning about Apple's stock price around $162?

The speaker warned that Apple's stock was more expensive at $162 than it would be at $182, suggesting that it would be cheaper to buy at the higher price point based on the expected earnings and market trends.

What does the speaker suggest about joining Top Trading Edge Academy?

The speaker suggests that joining Top Trading Edge Academy can help viewers understand the stock market better, including why buying Apple at $182 could be considered cheaper than at $162.

What did the speaker predict about Apple's stock price in relation to its earnings report?

The speaker predicted that if Apple's earnings report shows a miss, the stock price could drop significantly, making $100 a more expensive buying point than $182.

What is the significance of the term 'two digits' in the context of the video?

The term 'two digits' refers to the speaker's prediction that Apple's stock price could drop to a level where it is valued in the double digits, which is a significant decrease from its current value.

What was the speaker's advice regarding Apple's stock on August 19th?

The speaker advised that there was a bearish trend and that it was a good time to sell or avoid buying Apple's stock, as they expected the price to continue falling.

What technical analysis tool does the speaker mention in relation to Apple's stock?

The speaker mentioned the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) as a technical analysis tool, suggesting that it still had room to go negative, indicating a bearish trend.

What was the speaker's price target for Apple's stock?

The speaker's price target for Apple's stock was around $129, with a potential support level at $123.

What factors does the speaker believe are affecting Apple's profitability?

The speaker believes that currency fluctuations, supply constraints, and sluggish demand are affecting Apple's profitability, along with the broader economic factors such as rising interest rates and quantitative tightening.

What does the speaker suggest for viewers who want to learn more about stock trading?

The speaker suggests joining the Top Trading community and Top Trading Edge Academy for live teaching sessions and insights into stock trading strategies.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Apple's Stock Analysis and Market Predictions

This paragraph discusses an analysis of Apple's stock performance, highlighting a recent bull run followed by a bear run. The speaker refers to past advice given when Apple's stock was at $162, suggesting it was more expensive then than at $182, and encourages viewers to join the Top Trading Edge Academy for better understanding. Historical tweets and videos are mentioned, indicating a bearish pattern that the speaker predicts will lead to Apple's stock price falling into the two-digit range. The speaker emphasizes that despite Apple being a Wall Street favorite, they foresee a significant downturn, advising viewers to pay attention to market signals and their analysis.

05:02

📉 Analyzing Apple's Earnings Report and Currency Impact

The second paragraph delves into Apple's financial performance, noting a significant drop in net income from the previous quarter, which is attributed to currency fluctuations and the impact of holding cash in various currencies that have depreciated. The speaker explains how profits made in foreign currencies are translated back into dollars, resulting in a loss when the foreign currency has weakened. Additionally, the paragraph touches on Apple's demand and supply constraints, suggesting that the company might miss earnings expectations. The speaker uses technical analysis, mentioning the MACD indicator and potential price targets, and warns of the broader economic challenges such as debt, currency wars, and quantitative tightening that could affect Apple's stock price negatively.

Keywords

💡Bull Run

A bull run refers to a period of time in the financial markets where prices are rising or are expected to rise. In the context of the video, the speaker mentions a bull run as part of Apple's stock price history, indicating a time when the stock was increasing in value.

💡Bear Run

A bear run is the opposite of a bull run, where prices are falling or are expected to fall. The video discusses a bear run in relation to Apple's stock, suggesting a period of decline in the stock's value.

💡Top Trading Edge Academy

This appears to be a reference to an educational platform or community that the speaker is associated with, where members can learn about trading strategies and analysis. It is mentioned as a place to gain knowledge on why buying Apple stock at certain prices might be considered more expensive or cheaper.

💡MACD

MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is a technical analysis tool used by traders to identify trends and potential changes in a security's momentum. In the video, the speaker uses MACD to predict potential future movements in Apple's stock price.

💡Resistance

In technical analysis, resistance is a price level that an asset has difficulty surpassing. The speaker mentions resistance in the context of Apple's stock price, indicating a price level where selling pressure is expected to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further.

💡Bearish Flow

Bearish flow refers to a market sentiment where there is an expectation that prices will decline. The speaker uses this term to describe a situation where they believe Apple's stock price is likely to go down, based on their analysis.

💡Earnings

Earnings refer to the profit that a company makes over a specific period of time. The video discusses the anticipation of Apple's earnings report and how it might affect the stock price, with the speaker expecting a potential miss on earnings estimates.

💡Currency Fluctuation

Currency fluctuation refers to changes in the exchange rates between different currencies. The speaker mentions this as a factor that could impact Apple's earnings due to the company's international business and holdings in various currencies.

💡Supply Constraint

Supply constraint is a situation where the supply of a product or service is unable to meet the demand. The video mentions supply constraints affecting Apple, which could potentially impact the company's earnings and stock price.

💡Quantitative Tightening

Quantitative tightening is a monetary policy where a central bank reduces the amount of money in the economy, often by selling securities it has previously purchased. The speaker suggests that the start of quantitative tightening could negatively affect the financial markets, including Apple's stock.

💡Gap

In finance, a gap refers to a price space that occurs when the price of a security jumps up or down between two trading periods. The speaker predicts that Apple's stock price might fall to fill a gap, indicating a significant price drop.

Highlights

Introduction to Apple's stock chart analysis in the current market scenario.

Historical context provided with a comparison between Apple's stock price at 162 and 182.

Emphasis on joining Top Trading Edge Academy for understanding stock valuation.

Tweet from July 30th highlighting a heads-up on Apple's stock performance pre-earnings.

Video analysis from July 22nd predicting a bearish trend for Apple's stock.

Discussion on the potential for Apple's stock to be cheaper at 182 than at 130 based on previous quarters.

Expectation of Apple's stock heading into two digits despite its market darling status.

Invitation to join Top Trading Age Community for live trading insights.

Tweets from August 19th providing a timestamp and analysis on resistance levels.

Analysis of Apple's stock volume increase indicating a bearish flow.

Discussion on the potential impact of currency fluctuations on Apple's earnings.

Explanation of how currency values affect Apple's reported profits and losses.

Forecast of a possible earnings miss due to demand sluggishness and supply constraints.

Technical analysis indicating a bearish trend line and potential market resistance.

Market anticipation of Apple filling a price gap, suggesting further stock decline.

Call to action for viewers to like, share, and subscribe for more financial insights.

Transcripts

hello welcome to top trading age this

video is for apple uh chart analysis and

let's take a look at what actually apple

is doing right now so as you can see

this was the bull run right here and we

have the bear run and I did mention we

had the running here and I did mention

so let's take a look at the little

history first what I said if you look at

these when I what I was talking here so

if we can go back to

um

right here when Apple was started going

162 I said earning is coming in and we

got to be a little careful and I said do

you know the Apple stock is more

expensive at 162 then you are buying at

182.

you are buying at 182 here then buying

at 162 here that's what I said you are

buying at that time at

if you know you if you know you are

smart if you don't know please join top

trading Edge Academy and you can learn

that so this was the one of the tweet I

tweet on

July 30th okay so that's the one

heads up then I also made a video on

July 22nd and I said look same pattern

is setting up if you look at it today

setting up the same pattern as the last

time

then bearish

we're gonna be very so similar kind of

percentage we are gonna go up around

here and we're gonna have the berries

this is the video I posted you can go

and take a look at it I'm not gonna play

here in this video because we won't

analyze now how the chat look like so as

you can see I mentioned right right here

where we are now went up and now went

back to here what I did what I said

buying Apple at 182 is

more cheaper than buying at 130 based on

the previous these quarter running if

this quarter running comes out and we

miss and this is what I'm expecting we

we might miss this one then buying at

100 apple is more expensive than buying

at 182 and that's what I analyzed and I

said it's gonna be apple is heading in

two digits but remember it's a heater

this is the darling of entire Wall

Street every 401K every institution

every firm holding Apple sorry so very

very you know it's like a crown of the

jewel right steel I'm saying hey it's

heading to two digit you know I'm giving

heads up all around it's not just I'm

against it but whatever I see and that's

what I've been telling live so if you

want to join joint top trading age

Community guys right here look at that

top trading age Academy I teach

everything all day live and it's free it

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4. so all right let's take a look at

what exactly I give a heads up

right here

I tweet then august 19 I'm giving you

the timestamp no August 19. when it's

august 19

look at that at the top I gave a heads

up on August 18 right here 17 18th also

now 19th right here at the when we've

got a rejection right here that's the by

trend line which I gave you heads up hey

we're gonna hit this and this is our

resistance get out of it right guess

what

look at the 19 what happened and I gave

a heads up to you guys too right here

Apple big what did I say apple is

printing just I mean we were buying all

the fruits just double down on bearish

Flow look at that 40 from 20 million to

45 million

and that that too it this was 130 by the

by by four o'clock it was a massive

so please join top trading and I said

hey it's a bearish flow coming in

something is cooking somebody knows

something right and that's what I tweet

about it and look at that after that

look at after that bang bang look at

that all the way constant going down

right so somebody knows

and that's what I give a heads up and I

made a video also look at that

keep noticing on August 18th as well as

22nd

19th keep checking all this right so now

what actually happening as you can see

rolling down rolling down rolling down

all right so right here now where are we

heading what did I say the macd still

has a room to go around 680 maybe

negative 10 maybe eight something like

that approximately but absolutely price

Target is right here I posted Apple

could go and fill up the Gap right here

when

that time Market will tell but this

earning will come Discerning what I I

told you guys is the holiday coming in

and I'll show you right here

statement quarterly

Apple said I'm losing right here

19. look at the revenue in net income

loss look at that net income loss from

34 to 25.

so almost like a 10 billion nine billion

dollar 234.6 35 to 25 is almost 10

billion dollar loss from previous car to

this quarter now we have our you know

currency fluctuation we have the higher

guys you know that that way you know

Euro if you take a look at the Japan and

any countries currencies right now went

down 30 to 60 percent most of the

countries I would say at least easy 35

so uh you know Apple do have a currency

in a different and they hold in the

their their cash in different different

currencies so that value goes down

automatically plus

um if they are doing any profit in

different countries 60 65 to 67 profit

apple is making in other than in US

dollar a bad one if they want to bring

that dollar back everything calculates

basically in that currency right bottom

line is

calculated into dollars so they lose

that value so if they are making to

Apple is making 25 profit then it

calculates that hey Apple currency or

they have a 25 loss that's the loss and

that will be adjusted into their

earnings okay so that's why I'm

expecting plus as you know the Apple

came out that demand is sluggish and the

supply constraint too so that's why I

feel like we might miss this time

earning and that is just a heads up and

that's why I'm I'm thinking we might

Market might break this one my price

Target right here this is the 129 pip

support if you go to 123. so that's what

apple is looking like

despite having the darling of the Wall

Street despite having the each and every

all the market maker everybody loves to

have the Apple because that's the you

know golden uh golden horse that's what

they use every day right here but

deciding to fill the Gap so that's what

I can feel still we have a room to go

down

um well but I did give you the heads up

guys way early early I had give you a

heads up up here and that's the proof of

this video so

um now do you think we're gonna go yeah

absolutely look at that the uh the trend

line is bearish right here the distance

is in Tech trying to look at the what

happened exactly tops tops one top

second tops third tops tops are falling

so Market try to jump and got a

rejection we send back so tops are

falling if the bottom rise and trend

line breaks then I could be bullish but

until then right here as I said the

financial fundamental doesn't allow me

to be bullish at this particular point

of time huge debt and a lot of currency

war and um you know the apple does a lot

of international business that's why

they have a more constant in terms of

making money and their profitability is

going down so they have multiple plus

there you know the rising rate

environment higher tax everything is is

is not looking good at this particular

point and the quantitative tightening

will start so that is starting so that's

why all this calculation look like we

might break this floor and we go home

same thing as I told you here also will

be going down so this is what would

happen to me guys again you know this is

what my thesis you have to do your

homework okay so if you like this video

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