Market Outlook Call for May 30 DJI, SPX, $NVDA, $TSLA, $AVGO, $AMD GOLD, Crude, USD Index

Summary

In this market outlook update for May 30th, Adri Merchant, founder of TWWT Learning, discusses key economic events, including the core PCE price index and personal income data. He highlights market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly Trump’s legal battles, and rising inflation in Japan. Adri offers technical analysis of major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ, while also reviewing earnings reports from Marvel, Costco, Tesla, and Nvidia. He provides actionable insights into potential market movements, emphasizing the importance of technical analysis and long-term strategies for navigating uncertain market conditions.

Takeaways

• 😀 The economic calendar for May 30th highlights the Federal Reserve's Core PCE Price Index (MoM), Personal Income (MoM), and Chicago PMI, which are crucial indicators to watch.
• 😀 There is significant political uncertainty in the U.S. with Trump's response to a court ruling and ongoing trade discussions, which could affect market sentiment.
• 😀 Japan's core inflation has hit a two-year high, which may lead to a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, impacting the global carry trade that involves borrowing in yen and investing in dollars.
• 😀 The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are all experiencing congestion, with price action trapped within specific ranges. This suggests a likely continuation of this choppy behavior in the short term.
• 😀 Probabilities for May 30th indicate a 41% chance of a bearish day for the Dow Jones, a neutral outlook for the S&P 500, and a 55% chance of a bullish day for NASDAQ.
• 😀 Volatility has picked up slightly due to trade tariff news and U.S. Supreme Court developments, though it is expected to remain within a defined range in the short term.
• 😀 Tesla is facing resistance at the 368 level, with a potential pullback to 350-354 before making any further decisions on its direction.
• 😀 Nvidia is experiencing some weakness but remains in a neutral zone, with strong support at 131.
• 😀 AMD is expected to trade within a range of 181-110 for a while, before potentially moving higher over time.
• 😀 Gold is pulling back and may retest key support levels. Oil prices remain in a trading range, while the U.S. Dollar is testing its support at 99.137.
• 😀 Adri Merchant encourages the audience to follow TWWT Learning on social media for educational content and market updates, emphasizing the importance of financial education in these uncertain times.

Q & A

What is the primary economic data to watch for on May 30th, according to Adri Merchant?

The primary economic data for May 30th includes the Fed's preferred core PCE price index (month-over-month), personal income (month-over-month), Chicago PMI, and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Why does Adri mention potential uncertainty in the U.S. market?

Adri highlights uncertainty due to ongoing political developments, such as Trump’s response to a recent court ruling and trade tariff issues, which could cause market volatility.

What is the potential impact of Japan's inflation on global markets?

If Japan raises interest rates due to rising core inflation, it could disrupt the carry trade where investors borrow in Japanese yen and invest in higher-yielding assets like the U.S. dollar, leading to market instability.

How does the probability map provided by Adri impact market analysis?

Adri uses the probability map to highlight the likelihood of market movement based on historical patterns. For May 30th, Dow Jones has a 41% probability of being bearish, S&P is neutral, and NASDAQ has a 55% probability of being up.

What market action does Adri observe with major indices like Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ?

Adri notes that all three indices are currently trading within a congestion zone, with Dow Jones showing a bearish engulfing pattern, S&P staying within a range, and NASDAQ trending downward after breaking a key trend line.

What does Adri say about the performance of specific stocks like Tesla and Nvidia?

Adri notes that Tesla has failed to break key resistance at $368, suggesting a potential pullback to $350-$354. Nvidia, on the other hand, is showing weakness, with a strong support level around $131 but a current closing price of $137.91.

What are the recent earnings reports discussed in the transcript, and what were their outcomes?

The transcript discusses earnings from Marvel Technology, Costco, and Micron Technologies. Marvel Technology beat EPS estimates but was sold off, Costco had a 13% increase in net income but missed revenue expectations, and Micron saw a slight drop post-market after failing to break key resistance.

What trend does Adri see in the price of oil and gold?

Adri observes that gold is pulling back slightly after breaking a key trend line, with potential support around $1,332.97. Oil is in a range, and the U.S. dollar is fluctuating between support levels.

How does Adri interpret the current state of market volatility?

Adri notes that volatility has picked up due to trade tariff developments and the U.S. administration's move toward the Supreme Court, suggesting that volatility will remain elevated in the short term.

What long-term advice does Adri give to those interested in the financial markets?

Adri advises market participants to prepare for future challenges by learning about market techniques, as the times ahead will be challenging, with AI also becoming a major factor impacting employment and the economy.